Upload
khanyasmin
View
337
Download
4
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Charities Aid FoundationBond Income Fund
Robert McHenry
20 May 2008
2P7958
Presenter
Robert McHenry Fixed Income Product Manager
3P7958
Insight: autonomy with strong financial backing
T0003
• The autonomous asset management company of the HBOS Group
• HBOS: A strong and committed parent– AA- credit rating1
– Aa1 credit rating2
– 15th largest UK company by market capitalisation3
• £109 billion assets under management4
• A focus on excellence in key areas• An approach that emphasises delivering high quality solutions
for our clients
1 Source: Standard & Poor’s as at 30 June 20072 Moody’s as at 20 April 20073
Source: Bloomberg as at 30 November 20074
Source: Insight Investment as at 31 March 2008
4P7958
Charities Aid FoundationBond Income Fund
• Benchmark: 75% FTSE All Stocks Gilt Index25% Merrill Lynch Sterling Non-Gilts
Index
• Fund objective: To provide high and consistent levels of income with low capital volatility
• Investment objective: To outperform the benchmark by 0.75% per annum over rolling three year periods, gross of fees
• Income: Now distributed on an effective yield basis
Investment Philosophy & Process
6P7958
Diversification
Spreading Investments
Precision
Targeting Investments
Consistentperformance=+
Investment philosophy
• We aim to provide consistency in the generation of performance
T0008
7P7958
Investment philosophyDiversification
• Generating higher and more consistent returns over time
• We use a wide range of different opportunities
• We avoid concentration of risk
Market allocation
Duration and yield curve
Credit strategy
Security selection
Currency selection
Integrated Decision Making
CAF Bond Income Fund
T0008
Performance
9P7958
Performance to 31 March 2008
Performance of the Fund is based on an Offer to Offer basis. Insight Investment assumed management of the Fund on 1 February 2006. Periods greater than 1 year are annualised.
Source: Russell/Mellon CAPS and RIMES
Fund (%) Benchmark (%)
1 year 4.48 5.42
3 years 4.17 4.50
5 years 4.09 4.19
1 year Attribution to 31 March 2008
Source: Insight InvestmentNote: Estimated attribution
-21
14
161
-68
-157-160-120
-80-40
04080
120160bps
Market allocation Duration Yield curve Sector Stock selection
Market review
11P7958
UK government bonds
• Yield decline was good for fund performance
UK Gilt Yields
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
UK Gilt 2 year yield UK Gilt 10 year yield UK Gilt 30 year yield
Q2 2007 Yields rose Subsequently
yields fell
12P7958
UK Yield Curve
• Being Underweight very long dated bonds was good for performance
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
Ap
r-07
May
-07
Jun
-07
Jul-
07
Au
g-0
7
Sep
-07
Oct
-07
No
v-07
Dec
-07
Jan
-08
Feb
-08
Mar
-08
Ap
r-08
May
-08
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
UK Gilt 2 year yield
UK Gilt 10 year yield
Yield difference between 2 year and 10 year
Yield % Yield difference %
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
Ap
r-07
May
-07
Jun
-07
Jul-
07
Au
g-0
7
Sep
-07
Oct
-07
No
v-07
Dec
-07
Jan
-08
Feb
-08
Mar
-08
Ap
r-08
May
-08
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
UK Gilt 10 year yield
UK Gilt 30 year yield
Yield difference between 10 year and 30 year
Yield % Yield difference %
13P7958
Credit Markets
• Credit markets spreads widened dramatically during last 12 months
• Financials suffered more than most sectors
• Our allocations here were a negative for performance
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan
-03
Ap
r-03
Jul-
03
Oct
-03
Jan
-04
Ap
r-04
Jul-
04
Oct
-04
Jan
-05
Ap
r-05
Jul-
05
Oct
-05
Jan
-06
Ap
r-06
Jul-
06
Oct
-06
Jan
-07
Ap
r-07
Jul-
07
Oct
-07
Jan
-08
Ap
r-08
AAA AAA BBB
14P7958
Security Selection
Northern Rock Saphir Fin Perp 2016 (Tier1) vs Northern Rock 2015 (Lower Tier 2)
Source: Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08
T1 bond Lower Tier 2 bond
• Having some Northern Rock was a negative for performance
15P7958
Investment outlookOur views: UK Economy
Source: Bloomberg
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08
CPI Forecast path
UK inflation - CPI measure (yoy%)
2008 2009 2008 2009
UK 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.8
Eurozone 1.5 1.9 2.4 1.9
US 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.5
Japan 1.5 1.7 0.2 0.4
GDP(%) Core Inflation (%)
Economic forecasts for 2008/2009
• Period of more modest economic activity
• Situation remains fragile
16P7958
Investment outlookOur views: Market Forecast
12-month market forecast: bonds
*For the UK, we forecast the repo rate rather than 3-month interest ratesSource: Insight
3-month
interest 2-year 5-year 10-year 30-year 50-year
rates yield yield yield yield yield
UK Current 5.25 3.72 3.93 4.35 4.34 4.22 Forecast * 4.75 4.75 4.70 4.50 4.35 4.25US Current 2.69 1.56 2.45 3.60 4.29 - Forecast 2.25 2.30 3.20 4.25 4.85 -Euro Current 4.73 3.52 3.69 4.04 4.62 - Forecast 3.70 3.60 3.70 4.00 4.40 -Japan Current 0.91 0.59 0.75 1.29 2.45 - Forecast 0.70 0.80 1.10 1.55 2.15 -
• We expect longer dated yields to remain close to current levels
• UK curve to remain inverted at the long end
17P7958
Investment outlookOur views: UK Government Bonds
Source: Bloomberg
3.50
3.75
4.00
4.25
4.50
4.75
5.00
2 years 5 years 10 years 20 years 30 years 40 years 50 years
Current yield curve Insight forecast
UK government yield curve vs Insight forecasts (%)
• We do not see good value in gilts at short maturities
18P7958
Investment outlookOur views: UK Corporate Bonds
Global credit default rates (%) AAA UK RMBS spread over LIBOR (bps)
Source: Deutsche Bank Source: Market iBoxx, UBS Delta
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08
Spread over LIBOR
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Dec-87 Dec-90 Dec-93 Dec-96 Dec-99 Dec-02 Dec-05 Dec-08
Global actual forecast path
• Good value appearing in investment grade market
• Improvement in the liquidity landscape
19P7958
NotesPlease note:• All features in this pack are current at the time of publication but may be subject to change in the future.• Unless otherwise stated, the source of information is Insight Investment. Any forecasts or opinions are Insight Investment’s own at the date of this document and may
change. They should not be regarded as a guarantee of future performance.• This document is intended for investment professionals only and should not be relied upon by private investors. No modifications or amendments to this presentation may
be made without the prior permission of Insight Investment. The document is to be used by the intended recipient(s) only and the document may not be forwarded to a third party without prior consent from Insight Investment.
• Depending on the investor’s currency of reference, currency fluctuations may adversely affect the value of investments and the income therefrom. • Past performance is not a guide to future performance.• Unit prices may go down as well as up, particularly in the short term. The value of an investment may fluctuate and cannot be guaranteed. Where applicable, unless
otherwise indicated, the performance of the pooled funds illustrated is calculated on an offer to offer basis with income reinvested and net of management charges. • Trading in derivative instruments may involve a higher degree of risk and there can be no assurance that the objectives of the portfolio will be attained. • Telephone calls may be recorded.
Disclaimer• This document is for information purposes only. No party shall have any right of action against Insight in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information
contained in it, or any other written or oral information made available in connection with it. Any investment advice that we provide to you is based solely on the limited initial information which you have provided to us. Notwithstanding that Insight may have reviewed the Statement of Investment Principles of any relevant trust, no part of any document or presentation provided by us prior to our formal appointment as discretionary investment manager by way of written agreement shall be deemed to constitute "proper advice" for the purposes of the Pensions Act 1995 (as amended). Any limited initial advice given will be further discussed and negotiated in order to agree formal investment guidelines which will form part of a written investment management agreement between the parties.
Issued by Insight Investment • Insight Investment Management (Global) Limited, Clerical Medical Investment Group Limited and Clerical Medical Managed Funds Limited are authorised and regulated
by the Financial Services Authority and are part of the HBOS Group. All companies registered in England and Wales. Registered office 33 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1HZ.
• Notes for clients and prospects of Insight Investment Funds Management Limited: Issued by Insight Investment Management (Global) Limited, on behalf of . Insight Investment Funds Management Limited, Reg. No. 1835691. Insight Investment Management (Global) Limited, Reg. No. 00827982.
• Notes for clients and prospects of Clerical Medical Investment Group Limited: Issued by Insight Investment Management (Global) Limited on behalf of Clerical Medical Investment Group Limited. Clerical Medical Investment Group Limited, Reg. No. 03196171. Insight Investment Management (Global) Limited, Reg. No. 00827982.
• Notes for clients and prospects of Clerical Medical Managed Funds Limited: Issued by Insight Investment Management (Global) Limited on behalf of Clerical Medical Managed Funds Limited. Insight Investment Management (Global) Limited. Reg. No. 00827982. Clerical Medical Managed Funds Limited, Reg. No. 01580284.
T0004