Mankiw 5/e Chapter 6: Unemployment

CHAPTER FOUR

Unemployment

macro

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment0Except for the material on economic growth (Chapters 7 and 8), this chapter completes our study of the economys behavior in the long run, when prices generally are flexible and markets clear.

slide 1Chapter objectivesthe data used to measure the amount of unemployment.how unemployment can result from minimum-wage laws.how unemployment can arise from bargaining between firms and unions.how unemployment results when firms choose to pay efficiency wages.

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment1Unemployment is a critical issue in macroeconomics. The PowerPoint presentation of chapter 1 included some data showing that unemployment is statistically associated with many other social problems. Unemployment especially hurts those who are unemployed, but it affects the rest of us, as well. When unemployment is high, those of us who remain employed are likely to experience slower wage increases, a greater sense of economic uncertainty, and a greater likelihood of falling victim to crime (crime rates are correlated with unemployment). Also, the new case study on pp.173-174 shows a significant statistical correlation between a countrys unemployment rate and the happiness of its citizens - including those that are employed.

Unemployment represents wasted resources: the higher the unemployment rate, the less labor is involved in the production of goods and services, implying a lower level of output and income in the economy.

If you want to solve a problem, you need to first understand its causes. The causes of unemployment can be broken down into long-run and short-run. This chapter focuses on the long-run, particularly the causes of the so-called natural rate of unemployment.

Categories of UnemploymentThe problem of unemployment is usually divided into two categories.The long-run problem and the short-run problem:The natural rate of unemployment (long-run unemployment)The cyclical rate of unemployment (short-run unemployment)

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment2

slide 3U.S. Unemployment, 1958-2002

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment3+ red line: trend lineFigure 6-1 on p.156. Source of data: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED, the Economic and Financial Database of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank.)

Point out to students that the actual unemployment rate fluctuates considerably over the short run. These fluctuations will be the focus of chapters 9-13 later this semester. For this chapter, though, our goal is to understand the red line: the so-called natural rate of unemployment.

Natural Rate of UnemploymentThe natural rate of unemployment is unemployment that does not go away on its own even in the long run.It is the amount of unemployment that the economy normally experiences.In a recession, the actual unemployment rate rises above the natural rate. In a boom, the actual unemployment rate falls below the natural rate.

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment4

slide 5U.S. Unemployment, 1958-2002

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment5Figure 6-1 on p.156. Source of data: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED, the Economic and Financial Database of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank.)

Point out to students that the actual unemployment rate fluctuates considerably over the short run. These fluctuations will be the focus of chapters 9-13 later this semester. For this chapter, though, our goal is to understand the red line: the so-called natural rate of unemployment.

Cyclical UnemploymentCyclical unemployment refers to the year-to-year fluctuations in unemployment around its natural rate.It is associated with with short-term ups and downs of the business cycle.

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment6If economy is upward trend cyclical unemployment decrease , and else

How is Unemployment Measured?Unemployment is measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).It surveys 60,000 randomly selected households every month.The survey is called the Current Population Survey.

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How is Unemployment Measured?Based on the answers to the survey questions, the BLS places each adult into one of three categories:EmployedUnemployedNot in the labor force

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment8

slide 9How is Unemployment Measured?

The BLS considers a person an adult if he or she is over 16 years old.

CHAPTER 4 Unemploymentslide 10How is Unemployment Measured?A person is considered employed if he or she has spent most of the previous week working at a paid job.

A person is unemployed if he or she is on temporary layoff, is looking for a job, or is waiting for the start date of a new job.

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment

10

slide 11How is Unemployment Measured?A person who fits neither of these categories, such as a full-time student, homemaker, or retiree, is not in the labor force. The BLS defines the labor force as the sum of the employed and the unemployed.

CHAPTER 4 UnemploymentThe Breakdown of the Population in 2008

CHAPTER 4 Unemploymentslide 13How is Unemployment Measured?The unemployment rate is calculated as the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed.

CHAPTER 4 Unemploymentslide 14How is Unemployment Measured?The labor-force participation rate is the percentage of the adult population that is in the labor force.

CHAPTER 4 UnemploymentT l tha gia lc lng lao ng t l cng cao th sc sn xut cao14

How is Unemployment Measured?EXAMPLE:The country of Bada has collected the following information:Population240,000Employed180,000Unemployed30,000Labor Force = ?Unemployment rate = ?Labor-force participation rate = ?

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CHAPTER 4 UnemploymentLabor-Force Experiences of Various Demographic Groups (1998)

DemographicGroupUnemployment RateLabor-ForceParticipation RateAdults (20+)White, male3.277.2White, female3.459.7Black, male7.472.5Black, female7.964.8Teenagers (16-19)White, male14.156.6White, female10.955.4Black, male30.140.7Black, female25.342.5

CHAPTER 4 UnemploymentUnemployment Rate Since 1960108642197019751980198519901995Percent of Labor Force

Natural rate ofunemployment

19651960 2000

0

Unemployment rate

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment100806040200195019551960196519701975198019851990

1995 98Women

Men

Labor-force Participation Rate (in percent)Labor-force Participation Rates for Men and Women Since 1950

CHAPTER 4 UnemploymentIt is difficult to distinguish between a person who is unemployed and a person who is not in the labor force.Discouraged workers, people who would like to work but have given up looking for jobs after an unsuccessful search, dont show up in unemployment statistics.Other people may claim to be unemployed in order to receive financial assistance, even though they arent looking for work.Does the Unemployment Rate Measure What We Want It To??

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment19+ da vo mun lm vic : tht nghip: mun lm vic; ngoi LLL: ko mun lm vic

Active learning 1: Who Is Unemployed?Classifying each of the following individuals in one of the following categories: employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force.Steve worked 40 hours last week in a music supply store.Roger lost his job at the R-gone Manufacturing Company. Since then he has been trying to find a job at other local factories.Linda is a homemaker. Last week she was occupied with her normal household chores. She neither held a job nor looked for a job.Lindas father is unable to work.Scott has a Ph.D. He worked full-time but does not like his job as a dishwasher. He has applied for jobs with three companies and five universities. As soon as he gets an offer, he will quit his current job.Mary-Helen has been out of work for a full year. She would take a job if it was offered, but no local companies are hiring. She is not actively searching for work.

slide 20

CHAPTER 4 Unemploymentslide 21Why Are There Always Some People Unemployed?Frictional unemployment refers to the unemployment that results from the time that it takes to match workers with jobs. In other words, it takes time for workers to search for the jobs that are best suited for them.

CHAPTER 4 UnemploymentTht nghip c st: 21

Job Search UnemploymentJob search is the process by which workers find appropriate jobs given their tastes and skills. Job search unemployment results from the fact that it takes time for qualified individuals to be matched with appropriate jobs.It is caused by the time spent searching for the right job.

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment22

The Inevitability of Job Search UnemploymentSearch unemployment is inevitable because the economy is always changing.Changes in the composition of demand among industries or regions are called sectoral shifts. It takes time for workers to search for and find jobs in new sectors.

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment23

slide 24Sectoral shiftsdef: changes in the composition of demand among industries or regionsexample: Technological change increases demand for computer repair persons, decreases demand for typewriter repair personsexample: A new international trade agreement causes greater demand for workers in the export sectors and less demand for workers in import-competing sectors.It takes time for workers to change sectors, so sectoral shifts cause frictional unemployment.

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment24Sometimes the unemployment caused by sectoral shifts is severe. Due to increasing imports of cheaper foreign-made textiles, the U.S. textile industry has been in decline for years. Many workers in this industry have lost jobs. Many of these workers are in their 50s and have worked in this industry for decades. Such workers are unlikely to have the skills necessary to get jobs available in newly booming industries, and they are less likely to invest in the acquisition of the necessary skills for these jobs. Hence, such workers are at greater risk for becoming discouraged workers.

slide 25Industry shares in U.S. GDP, 1960

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment25All figures are industry shares in U.S. GDP.

Other industry includes construction and mining.

Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank.

slide 26Industry shares in U.S. GDP, 1997

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment26From 1960 to 1997, there are huge changes in all four categories. Even the tiny category of agriculture drops by more than half:from 4.2% to 1.7% of GDP.

slide 27Sectoral shifts aboundmore examples:Late 1800s: decline of agriculture, increase in manufacturingLate 1900s: relative decline of manufacturing, increase in service sector1970s energy crisis caused a shift in demand away from huge gas guzzlers toward smaller cars.In our dynamic economy, smaller (though still significant) sectoral shifts occur frequently, contributing to frictional unemployment.

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment27Most of the examples on this and the previous slides are big changes that have occurred over many years. These examples give students a good idea of what sectoral shifts are. Perhaps more important for the natural rate, though, are the many smaller changes that occur more frequently. Ours is a dynamic economy: the structure of demand is shifting almost continuously, due to changes in preferences, technology, and the location of production. As a result, there is a near-continual flow of newly frictionally unemployed workers.

Sectoral shifts are distinct from recessions (which also cause unemployment). In recessions, there is a general fall in demand across industries, and the unemployment that results is cyclical. Sectoral shifts, though, are changes in the composition of demand across industries, and lead to frictional unemployment as described above.

Public Policy and Job SearchGovt programs affecting unemploymentGovt employment agencies:disseminate info about job openings to better match workers & jobs Public job training programs:help workers displaced from declining industries get skills needed for jobs in growing industries

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment28You might want to hide (omit) this slide from your presentation if you plan on doing the class discussion in Slide 29, which asks students to think of things the government can do to try to reduce the natural rate of unemployment.

UI pays part of a workers former wages for a limited time after losing his/her job.UI increases search unemployment, because it:reduces the opportunity cost of being unemployedreduces the urgency of finding workhence, reduces fStudies: The longer a worker is eligible for UI, the longer the duration of the average spell of unemployment.Unemployment insurance (UI)

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment29The text includes a nice case study on unemployment insurance (pp.160-161). It discusses evidence that unemployment insurance reduces the job finding rate.

By allowing workers more time to search,UI may lead to better matches between jobs and workers, which would lead to greater productivity and higher incomes. Benefits of UI

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Public Policy and Job SearchGovernment programs can affect the time it takes unemployed workers to find new jobs.These programs include the following:Government-run employment agenciesPublic training programsUnemployment insurance

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slide 32Why is there unemployment?

1. job search and frictional unemployment2. wage rigidityDONE Next

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment32

slide 33Unemployment from real wage rigidityIf the real wage is stuck above the eqm level, then there arent enough jobs to go around.Then, firms must ration the scarce jobs among workers. Structural unemployment: the unemployment resulting from real wage rigidity and job rationing.

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment33W (norminal age)w (real wage) = W/P

slide 34Reasons for wage rigidity1.Minimum wage laws2.Labor unions3.Efficiency wages

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment343.Tin lng hiu qu

slide 35Minimum-Wage LawsWhen the minimum wage is set above the level that balances supply and demand, it creates unemployment.

CHAPTER 4 UnemploymentUnemployment from a Wage Above the Equilibrium Level...WEQuantity of LaborLE0LabordemandWage

Surplus of labor = Unemployment

Minimum wage

LD

LS

Laborsupply

CHAPTER 4 UnemploymentTht nghip c cu.36

Unions and Collective BargainingA union is a worker association that bargains with employers over wages and working conditions. In the 1940s and 1950s, when unions were at their peak, about a third of the U.S. labor force was unionized.A union is a type of cartel attempting to exert its market power.

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment37Cng on v thng lng tp th

slide 38Unions and Collective BargainingThe process by which unions and firms agree on the terms of employment is called collective bargaining.

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment

38

Unions and Collective BargainingA strike will be organized if the union and the firm cannot reach an agreement.A strike refers to when the union organizes a withdrawal of labor from the firm.

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment39Strike = nh cng+li: nhng ngi nm trong cng on+hi: ko nm trong cng on

Unions and Collective BargainingA strike makes some workers better off and other workers worse off.Workers in unions (insiders) reap the benefits of collective bargaining, while workers not in the union (outsiders) bear some of the costs.

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Unions and Collective BargainingBy acting as a cartel with ability to strike or otherwise impose high costs on employers, unions usually achieve above equilibrium wages for their members.Union workers earn 10 to 20 percent more than nonunion workers.

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Are Unions Good or Bad for the Economy?Critics argue that unions cause the allocation of labor to be inefficient and inequitable.Wages above the competitive level reduce the quantity of labor demanded and cause unemployment.Some workers benefit at the expense of other workers.

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Are Unions Good or Bad for the Economy?Advocates of unions contend that unions are a necessary antidote to the market power of firms that hire workers.They claim that unions are important for helping firms respond efficiently to workers concerns.

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Theory of Efficiency WagesEfficiency wages are above-equilibrium wages paid by firms in order to increase worker productivity. The theory of efficiency wages states that firms operate more efficiently if wages are above the equilibrium level.

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Theory of Efficiency WagesA firm may prefer higher than equilibrium wages for the following reasons:Worker Health: Better paid workers eat a better diet and thus are more productive.Worker Turnover: A higher paid worker is less likely to look for another job.

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Theory of Efficiency WagesA firm may prefer higher than equilibrium wages for the following reasons:Worker Effort: Higher wages motivate workers to put forward their best effort.Worker Quality: Higher wages attract a better pool of workers to apply for jobs.

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Active learning 2Which of the following would be most likely to reduce frictional unemployment?The govt eliminates the minimum wageThe govt increases UI benefitsA new law bans labor unionsMore workers post their resumes at Monster.com and more employers use Monster.com to find suitable workers to hireSectoral shifts become more frequent.

slide 47

CHAPTER 4 Unemploymentslide 48EXPLAINING THE TREND:Union membershipSince the early 1980s, the natural rate of unemploy-ment and union membership have both fallen. But, from 1950s to about 1980, the natural rate rose while union membership fell. Union membershipselected yearsyearpercent of labor force193012%194535%195435%197027%198320.1%200113.5%

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment48source: AFL-CIO website (http://www.aflcio.org/uniondifference/uniondiff11.htm)Also seehttp://www.lib.umich.edu/govdocs/steclab.html#unions good set of links to info on labor unionshttp://stats.bls.gov/news.release/union2.toc.htm The BLS annual news release of info on union membership, earnings.

Earlier in the chapter, we saw cross-sectional data that showed a positive correlation between the union wage premium and union members share of the labor force across industries. We would expect that, other things equal, changes over time in the aggregate share of unions in employment should be associated with similar changes in unions impact on average wages, and hence on the natural rate of unemployment. In plain English, we would expect that the decline in the extent of unionization shown on this slide would correspond to a decline in the natural rate of unemployment. Unfortunately for the theory, this is only true for the time period beginning in the early 1980s, when the natural rate started coming down. From the 1950s through 1980, the natural rate rose, but union membership fell. Does this mean the theory is not relevant? Not necessarily, as other things (other determinants of the natural rate) were not constant during this time period.

slide 49

Since mid-1980s, oil prices less volatile, so fewer sectoral shifts.EXPLAINING THE TREND:Sectoral shifts

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment49From earlier in the chapter:Sectoral shifts are a source of job separations and lead to frictional unemployment. We would expect that a decrease in the frequency and magnitude of sectoral shifts would be associated with a lower rate of job separations, less frictional unemployment, and a lower natural rate of unemployment. Unfortunately, there is no single index of sectoral shocks. However, we know that large changes in oil prices are one source of sectoral shocks. A significant fall in the price of oil causes a decrease in demand for workers at oil fields in Oklahoma and Texas, and an increase in demand for workers at factories that produce SUVs. A significant increase in oil prices would do the opposite. The graph shows data on the price of oil since 1970. First, consider the period 1970-1985. The price of oil in todays dollars fluctuated between $15 and $85. Now consider the period since 1986. The real price of oil fluctuated in a much more narrow range (from $12 to $47, or, if you exclude the one spike during the Gulf War, from $12 to $32). Main point: In the 1970s until 1985, sectoral shifts were more prevalent, and the natural rate was rising. Since 1986, sectoral shifts were less prevalent, and the natural rate was falling.

slide 50EXPLAINING THE TREND:Demographics1970s: The Baby Boomers were young. Young workers change jobs more frequently (high value of s).Late 1980s through today: Baby Boomers aged. Middle-aged workers change jobs less often (low s).

CHAPTER 4 Unemployment50For details on this, plus one other explanation involving productivity, see pp.169-170.

slide 51The rise in European Unemployment

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CHAPTER 4 Unemployment51Figure 6-4 in the text (p.172)

slide 52The rise in European UnemploymentTwo explanations:1.Most countries in Europe have generous social insurance programs.2.Shift in demand from unskilled to skilled workers, due to technological change.This demand shift occurred in the U.S., too. But wage rigidity is less of a problem here, so the shift caused an increase in the skilled-to-unskilled wage gap instead of an increase in unemployment.

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The unemployment rate in the US economy

CHAPTER 4 UnemploymentU rate chart5.84.77842323656.44.78008298766.74.77966804987.44.7775933617.44.775933617.34.77676348557.54.77717842327.44.77676348557.14.77468879676.74.77302904566.24.77178423246.24.770124481364.76763485485.94.76390041495.64.75850622415.24.75186721995.14.743983402554.73319502075.14.72199170125.24.70871369295.54.69585062245.74.68381742745.84.6655601665.34.6535269715.24.64232365154.84.6327800835.44.62448132785.24.61742738595.14.61327800835.44.61078838175.54.60912863075.64.60954356855.54.61327800836.14.61784232376.14.62489626566.64.6327800836.64.63941908716.94.64854771786.94.659336099674.66970954367.14.68132780086.94.693360995974.70497925316.64.71742738596.74.72946058096.54.73983402496.14.750207468964.76058091295.84.77178423245.54.78215767635.64.79336099595.64.80497925315.54.81659751045.54.82780082995.44.83858921165.74.84854771785.64.85726141085.44.86763485485.74.87717842325.54.88713692955.74.89626556025.94.90497925315.74.91452282165.74.92448132785.94.93360995855.64.94356846475.64.95311203325.44.96224066395.54.97095435685.54.97800829885.74.98506224075.54.99087136935.64.99336099595.44.99460580915.44.99419087145.34.99170124485.14.98838174275.24.98630705394.94.985892116254.98464730295.14.98423236515.14.98381742744.84.987551867254.99543568464.95.00829875525.15.02157676354.75.03775933614.85.0551867224.65.07302904564.65.09170124484.45.10995850624.45.12821576764.35.14564315354.25.16348547724.15.180082987645.196680497945.2120331953.85.22738589213.85.24273858923.85.25726141083.95.27136929463.85.28506224073.85.29958506223.85.31369294613.75.32821576763.75.34398340253.65.36016597513.85.37468879673.95.38838174273.85.40248962663.85.41701244813.85.43153526973.85.44439834023.95.45726141083.85.46804979253.85.47966804983.85.490871369345.50082987553.95.5103734443.85.51576763493.75.5207468883.85.52282157683.75.5224066393.55.51991701243.55.51410788383.75.50788381743.75.50331950213.55.49668049793.45.49087136933.45.48547717843.45.48215767633.45.48132780083.45.48008298763.45.47966804983.45.4792531123.45.48008298763.45.48174273863.55.48423236513.55.48713692953.55.49087136933.75.49377593363.75.49585062243.55.49668049793.55.49751037343.95.5016597514.25.50622406644.45.51244813284.65.51867219924.85.52821576764.95.538589211655.54854771785.15.55767634855.45.5655601665.55.57385892125.95.57966804986.15.58423236515.95.5879668055.95.591286307165.59336099595.95.59460580915.95.59668049795.95.59834024965.59958506226.15.601244813365.60539419095.85.61037344465.617842323765.62780082995.85.63858921165.75.65145228225.85.66597510375.75.68132780085.75.69709543575.75.71410788385.65.73195020755.65.75020746895.55.76846473035.65.78838174275.35.81078838175.25.83195020754.95.852282157755.87178423244.95.890041493855.90871369294.95.92697095444.95.94439834024.85.96016597514.85.97634854774.85.99211618264.66.00580912864.86.01825726144.96.02904564325.16.03941908715.26.04854771785.16.05850622415.16.06804979255.16.07676348555.46.08547717845.56.09502074695.56.10580912865.96.115352697166.12489626566.66.13360995857.26.14398340258.16.1535269718.16.16307053948.66.17178423248.86.182572614196.19253112038.86.20414937768.66.21576763498.46.22697095448.46.23817427398.46.24979253118.36.26141078848.26.27344398347.96.28464730297.76.29792531127.66.3120331957.76.32572614117.46.33983402497.66.3535269717.86.36680497937.86.37966804987.66.39294605817.76.40663900417.86.41991701247.86.43236514527.56.44398340257.66.4551867227.46.46680497937.26.477178423276.48755186727.26.49751037346.96.506639004176.51576763496.86.52448132786.86.53360995856.86.54107883826.46.54854771786.46.55643153536.36.56473029056.36.57261410796.16.579668049866.58838174275.96.59626556026.26.60331950215.96.611203319566.61908713695.86.62738589215.96.635269709566.6431535275.96.65145228225.96.65892116185.86.6655601665.86.67302904565.66.68049792535.76.68838174275.76.695435684666.70248962665.96.709958506266.71659751045.96.723651452366.73153526976.36.73941908716.36.74522821586.36.74937759346.96.7535269717.56.7568464737.66.75850622417.86.76099585067.76.76390041497.56.7672199177.56.76929460587.56.77219917017.26.77385892127.56.77510373447.46.77800829887.46.78174273867.26.78464730297.56.78879668057.56.79294605817.26.79668049797.46.80041493787.66.80373443987.96.80788381748.36.81286307058.56.81825726148.66.82365145238.96.830290456496.83734439839.36.84398340259.46.85186721999.66.86058091299.86.8688796689.86.877178423210.16.885477178410.46.892946058110.86.900414937810.86.909128630710.46.917842323710.46.926970954410.36.935269709510.26.944398340210.16.953112033210.16.96182572619.46.97012448139.56.97842323659.26.98630705398.86.99460580918.57.00290456438.37.009958506287.01701244817.87.02323651457.87.02863070547.77.03402489637.47.03817427397.27.04232365157.57.04522821587.57.04730290467.37.04896265567.47.04854771787.27.04688796687.37.04232365157.37.03568464737.27.02448132787.27.01327800837.37.0016597517.26.98838174277.46.97427385897.46.96141078847.16.94937759347.16.93775933617.16.925726141176.914107883876.90290456436.76.89211618267.26.88215767637.26.87302904567.16.86473029057.26.85601659757.26.847302904676.83858921166.96.827385892176.816597510476.80663900416.96.79709543576.66.78713692956.66.77676348556.66.7672199176.66.75726141086.36.74771784236.36.73817427396.26.72987551876.16.720331950266.71161825735.96.702904564366.69419087145.86.68506224075.76.67634854775.76.6688796685.76.66141078845.76.65477178425.46.64688796685.66.63983402495.46.63360995855.46.62821576765.66.62116182575.46.61535269715.46.60912863075.36.60331950215.36.59709543575.46.59004149385.26.583402489656.57634854775.26.57053941915.26.56390041495.36.55850622415.26.55269709545.26.5464730295.36.53900414945.36.53153526975.46.52365145235.46.51618257265.46.50788381745.36.49875518675.26.48921161835.46.4792531125.46.46763485485.26.45311203325.56.43858921165.76.42323651455.96.40788381745.96.39294605816.26.37842323656.36.36390041496.46.35145228226.66.33775933616.86.32489626566.76.31286307056.96.30124481336.96.28921161836.86.27717842326.96.26763485486.96.257676348576.248547717876.23900414947.36.22863070547.36.21659751047.46.20373443987.46.19045643157.46.17800829887.66.16348547727.86.14730290467.76.13029045647.66.11244813287.66.09460580917.36.07551867227.46.0551867227.46.03319502077.36.01120331957.15.990871369375.97053941917.15.95062240667.15.93112033275.9120331956.95.89294605816.85.87676348556.75.86016597516.85.8448132786.65.8311203326.55.81867219926.65.80705394196.65.79668049796.55.78713692956.45.7775933616.15.76846473036.15.76058091296.15.75352697165.74522821585.95.73692946065.85.72946058095.65.72157676355.55.71452282165.65.70705394195.45.69958506225.45.69253112035.85.68547717845.65.67800829885.65.67095435685.75.66307053945.75.6551867225.65.64854771785.55.64190871375.65.63526970955.65.62904564325.65.62282157685.55.61784232375.55.61078838175.65.60373443985.65.59709543575.35.59004149385.55.58298755195.15.57676348555.25.57095435685.25.56473029055.45.55850622415.45.55269709545.35.54813278015.25.54356846475.25.53900414945.15.5344398344.95.53112033255.52780082994.95.52489626564.85.5224066394.95.52033195024.75.51867219924.65.51659751044.75.51535269714.65.51452282164.65.51369294614.75.51286307054.45.5120331954.45.51244813284.55.5120331954.65.51244813284.55.51286307054.55.51244813284.55.51286307054.45.51327800834.45.51410788384.35.51493775934.35.51535269714.25.51659751044.45.51867219924.25.51991701244.35.52116182574.35.52199170124.25.52323651454.25.52448132784.15.52531120334.15.52614107884.15.526556016645.52697095444.15.527385892145.52821576763.95.52946058094.15.529875518745.53029045644.15.53153526974.15.531535269745.53070539423.95.529045643245.527385892145.52448132784.25.52116182574.25.51742738594.35.51286307054.55.50746887974.45.50248962664.65.49668049794.65.49087136934.95.485477178455.47966804985.45.47385892125.65.46763485485.85.46141078845.65.45394190875.55.4464730295.75.438589211665.43070539425.85.4228215768

Unemployment rateNatural rate of unemploymentPercent of labor force

dataCivilian Unemployment Rate, % of labor force, seasonally adjustedSource: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor StatisticsThe natural rate is estimated by averaging all the unemployment rates from 10 years earlier to 10 years later;future unemployment rates are set at 5.5%yearmonthX AxisU ratenatural U rate1948119483.4194821948.08333333333.8194831948.16666666674194841948.253.9194851948.33333333333.5194861948.41666666673.6194871948.53.6194881948.58333333333.9194891948.66666666673.81948101948.753.71948111948.83333333333.81948121948.916666666741949119494.3194921949.08333333334.7194931949.16666666675194941949.255.3194951949.33333333336.1194961949.41666666676.2194971949.56.7194981949.58333333336.8194991949.66666666676.61949101949.757.91949111949.83333333336.41949121949.91666666676.61950119506.5195021950.08333333336.4195031950.16666666676.3195041950.255.8195051950.33333333335.5195061950.41666666675.4195071950.55195081950.58333333334.5195091950.66666666674.41950101950.754.21950111950.83333333334.21950121950.91666666674.31951119513.7195121951.08333333333.4195131951.16666666673.4195141951.253.1195151951.33333333333195161951.41666666673.2195171951.53.1195181951.58333333333.1195191951.66666666673.31951101951.753.51951111951.83333333333.51951121951.91666666673.11952119523.2195221952.08333333333.1195231952.16666666672.9195241952.252.9195251952.33333333333195261952.41666666673195271952.53.2195281952.58333333333.4195291952.66666666673.11952101952.7531952111952.83333333332.81952121952.91666666672.71953119532.9195321953.08333333332.6195331953.16666666672.6195341953.252.7195351953.33333333332.5195361953.41666666672.5195371953.52.6195381953.58333333332.7195391953.66666666672.91953101953.753.11953111953.83333333333.51953121953.91666666674.51954119544.9195421954.08333333335.2195431954.16666666675.7195441954.255.9195451954.33333333335.9195461954.41666666675.6195471954.55.8195481954.58333333336195491954.66666666676.11954101954.755.71954111954.83333333335.31954121954.916666666751955119554.9195521955.08333333334.7195531955.16666666674.6195541955.254.7195551955.33333333334.3195561955.41666666674.2195571955.54195581955.58333333334.2195591955.66666666674.11955101955.754.31955111955.83333333334.21955121955.91666666674.21956119564195621956.08333333333.9195631956.16666666674.2195641956.254195651956.33333333334.3195661956.41666666674.3195671956.54.4195681956.58333333334.1195691956.66666666673.91956101956.753.91956111956.83333333334.31956121956.91666666674.21957119574.2195721957.08333333333.9195731957.16666666673.7195741957.253.9195751957.33333333334.1195761957.41666666674.3195771957.54.2195781957.58333333334.1195791957.66666666674.41957101957.754.51957111957.83333333335.11957121957.91666666675.21958119585.84.8195821958.08333333336.44.8195831958.16666666676.74.8195841958.257.44.8195851958.33333333337.44.8195861958.41666666677.34.8195871958.57.54.8195881958.58333333337.44.8195891958.66666666677.14.81958101958.756.74.81958111958.83333333336.24.81958121958.91666666676.24.819591195964.8195921959.08333333335.94.8195931959.16666666675.64.8195941959.255.24.8195951959.33333333335.14.7195961959.416666666754.7195971959.55.14.7195981959.58333333335.24.7195991959.66666666675.54.71959101959.755.74.71959111959.83333333335.84.71959121959.91666666675.34.71960119605.24.6196021960.08333333334.84.6196031960.16666666675.44.6196041960.255.24.6196051960.33333333335.14.6196061960.41666666675.44.6196071960.55.54.6196081960.58333333335.64.6196091960.66666666675.54.61960101960.756.14.61960111960.83333333336.14.61960121960.91666666676.64.61961119616.64.6196121961.08333333336.94.6196131961.16666666676.94.7196141961.2574.7196151961.33333333337.14.7196161961.41666666676.94.7196171961.574.7196181961.58333333336.64.7196191961.66666666676.74.71961101961.756.54.71961111961.83333333336.14.81961121961.916666666764.81962119625.84.8196221962.08333333335.54.8196231962.16666666675.64.8196241962.255.64.8196251962.33333333335.54.8196261962.41666666675.54.8196271962.55.44.8196281962.58333333335.74.8196291962.66666666675.64.91962101962.755.44.91962111962.83333333335.74.91962121962.91666666675.54.91963119635.74.9196321963.08333333335.94.9196331963.16666666675.74.9196341963.255.74.9196351963.33333333335.94.9196361963.41666666675.64.9196371963.55.65.0196381963.58333333335.45.0196391963.66666666675.55.01963101963.755.55.01963111963.83333333335.75.01963121963.91666666675.55.01964119645.65.0196421964.08333333335.45.0196431964.16666666675.45.0196441964.255.35.0196451964.33333333335.15.0196461964.41666666675.25.0196471964.54.95.0196481964.583333333355.0196491964.66666666675.15.01964101964.755.15.01964111964.83333333334.85.01964121964.916666666755.01965119654.95.0196521965.08333333335.15.0196531965.16666666674.75.0196541965.254.85.1196551965.33333333334.65.1196561965.41666666674.65.1196571965.54.45.1196581965.58333333334.45.1196591965.66666666674.35.11965101965.754.25.21965111965.83333333334.15.21965121965.916666666745.219661196645.2196621966.08333333333.85.2196631966.16666666673.85.2196641966.253.85.3196651966.33333333333.95.3196661966.41666666673.85.3196671966.53.85.3196681966.58333333333.85.3196691966.66666666673.75.31966101966.753.75.31966111966.83333333333.65.41966121966.91666666673.85.41967119673.95.4196721967.08333333333.85.4196731967.16666666673.85.4196741967.253.85.4196751967.33333333333.85.4196761967.41666666673.95.5196771967.53.85.5196781967.58333333333.85.5196791967.66666666673.85.51967101967.7545.51967111967.83333333333.95.51967121967.91666666673.85.51968119683.75.5196821968.08333333333.85.5196831968.16666666673.75.5196841968.253.55.5196851968.33333333333.55.5196861968.41666666673.75.5196871968.53.75.5196881968.58333333333.55.5196891968.66666666673.45.51968101968.753.45.51968111968.83333333333.45.51968121968.91666666673.45.51969119693.45.5196921969.08333333333.45.5196931969.16666666673.45.5196941969.253.45.5196951969.33333333333.45.5196961969.41666666673.55.5196971969.53.55.5196981969.58333333333.55.5196991969.66666666673.75.51969101969.753.75.51969111969.83333333333.55.51969121969.91666666673.55.51970119703.95.5197021970.08333333334.25.5197031970.16666666674.45.5197041970.254.65.5197051970.33333333334.85.5197061970.41666666674.95.5197071970.555.5197081970.58333333335.15.6197091970.66666666675.45.61970101970.755.55.61970111970.83333333335.95.61970121970.91666666676.15.61971119715.95.6197121971.08333333335.95.6197131971.166666666765.6197141971.255.95.6197151971.33333333335.95.6197161971.41666666675.95.6197171971.565.6197181971.58333333336.15.6197191971.666666666765.61971101971.755.85.61971111971.833333333365.61971121971.916666666765.61972119725.85.6197221972.08333333335.75.7197231972.16666666675.85.7197241972.255.75.7197251972.33333333335.75.7197261972.41666666675.75.7197271972.55.65.7197281972.58333333335.65.8197291972.66666666675.55.81972101972.755.65.81972111972.83333333335.35.81972121972.91666666675.25.81973119734.95.9197321973.083333333355.9197331973.16666666674.95.9197341973.2555.9197351973.33333333334.95.9197361973.41666666674.95.9197371973.54.86.0197381973.58333333334.86.0197391973.66666666674.86.01973101973.754.66.01973111973.83333333334.86.01973121973.91666666674.96.01974119745.16.0197421974.08333333335.26.0197431974.16666666675.16.1197441974.255.16.1197451974.33333333335.16.1197461974.41666666675.46.1197471974.55.56.1197481974.58333333335.56.1197491974.66666666675.96.11974101974.7566.11974111974.83333333336.66.11974121974.91666666677.26.11975119758.16.2197521975.08333333338.16.2197531975.16666666678.66.2197541975.258.86.2197551975.333333333396.2197561975.41666666678.86.2197571975.58.66.2197581975.58333333338.46.2197591975.66666666678.46.21975101975.758.46.21975111975.83333333338.36.31975121975.91666666678.26.31976119767.96.3197621976.08333333337.76.3197631976.16666666677.66.3197641976.257.76.3197651976.33333333337.46.3197661976.41666666677.66.4197671976.57.86.4197681976.58333333337.86.4197691976.66666666677.66.41976101976.757.76.41976111976.83333333337.86.41976121976.91666666677.86.41977119777.56.4197721977.08333333337.66.5197731977.16666666677.46.5197741977.257.26.5197751977.333333333376.5197761977.41666666677.26.5197771977.56.96.5197781977.583333333376.5197791977.66666666676.86.51977101977.756.86.51977111977.83333333336.86.51977121977.91666666676.46.51978119786.46.6197821978.08333333336.36.6197831978.16666666676.36.6197841978.256.16.6197851978.333333333366.6197861978.41666666675.96.6197871978.56.26.6197881978.58333333335.96.6197891978.666666666766.61978101978.755.86.61978111978.83333333335.96.61978121978.916666666766.61979119795.96.7197921979.08333333335.96.7197931979.16666666675.86.7197941979.255.86.7197951979.33333333335.66.7197961979.41666666675.76.7197971979.55.76.7197981979.583333333366.7197991979.66666666675.96.71979101979.7566.71979111979.83333333335.96.71979121979.916666666766.71980119806.36.7198021980.08333333336.36.7198031980.16666666676.36.7198041980.256.96.8198051980.33333333337.56.8198061980.41666666677.66.8198071980.57.86.8198081980.58333333337.76.8198091980.66666666677.56.81980101980.757.56.81980111980.83333333337.56.81980121980.91666666677.26.81981119817.56.8198121981.08333333337.46.8198131981.16666666677.46.8198141981.257.26.8198151981.33333333337.56.8198161981.41666666677.56.8198171981.57.26.8198181981.58333333337.46.8198191981.66666666677.66.81981101981.757.96.81981111981.83333333338.36.81981121981.91666666678.56.81982119828.66.8198221982.08333333338.96.8198231982.166666666796.8198241982.259.36.8198251982.33333333339.46.9198261982.41666666679.66.9198271982.59.86.9198281982.58333333339.86.9198291982.666666666710.16.91982101982.7510.46.91982111982.833333333310.86.91982121982.916666666710.86.919831198310.46.9198321983.083333333310.46.9198331983.166666666710.36.9198341983.2510.26.9198351983.333333333310.17.0198361983.416666666710.17.0198371983.59.47.0198381983.58333333339.57.0198391983.66666666679.27.01983101983.758.87.01983111983.83333333338.57.01983121983.91666666678.37.019841198487.0198421984.08333333337.87.0198431984.16666666677.87.0198441984.257.77.0198451984.33333333337.47.0198461984.41666666677.27.0198471984.57.57.0198481984.58333333337.57.0198491984.66666666677.37.01984101984.757.47.01984111984.83333333337.27.01984121984.91666666677.37.01985119857.37.0198521985.08333333337.27.0198531985.16666666677.27.0198541985.257.37.0198551985.33333333337.27.0198561985.41666666677.47.0198571985.57.47.0198581985.58333333337.16.9198591985.66666666677.16.91985101985.757.16.91985111985.833333333376.91985121985.916666666776.91986119866.76.9198621986.08333333337.26.9198631986.16666666677.26.9198641986.257.16.9198651986.33333333337.26.9198661986.41666666677.26.8198671986.576.8198681986.58333333336.96.8198691986.666666666776.81986101986.7576.81986111986.83333333336.96.81986121986.91666666676.66.81987119876.66.8198721987.08333333336.66.8198731987.16666666676.66.8198741987.256.36.7198751987.33333333336.36.7198761987.41666666676.26.7198771987.56.16.7198781987.583333333366.7198791987.66666666675.96.71987101987.7566.71987111987.83333333335.86.71987121987.91666666675.76.71988119885.76.7198821988.08333333335.76.7198831988.16666666675.76.7198841988.255.46.6198851988.33333333335.66.6198861988.41666666675.46.6198871988.55.46.6198881988.58333333335.66.6198891988.66666666675.46.61988101988.755.46.61988111988.83333333335.36.61988121988.91666666675.36.61989119895.46.6198921989.08333333335.26.6198931989.166666666756.6198941989.255.26.6198951989.33333333335.26.6198961989.41666666675.36.6198971989.55.26.6198981989.58333333335.26.5198991989.66666666675.36.51989101989.755.36.51989111989.83333333335.46.51989121989.91666666675.46.51990119905.46.5199021990.08333333335.36.5199031990.16666666675.26.5199041990.255.46.5199051990.33333333335.46.5199061990.41666666675.26.5199071990.55.56.4199081990.58333333335.76.4199091990.66666666675.96.41990101990.755.96.41990111990.83333333336.26.41990121990.91666666676.36.41991119916.46.4199121991.08333333336.66.3199131991.16666666676.86.3199141991.256.76.3199151991.33333333336.96.3199161991.41666666676.96.3199171991.56.86.3199181991.58333333336.96.3199191991.66666666676.96.31991101991.7576.21991111991.833333333376.21991121991.91666666677.36.21992119927.36.2199221992.08333333337.46.2199231992.16666666677.46.2199241992.257.46.2199251992.33333333337.66.2199261992.41666666677.86.1199271992.57.76.1199281992.58333333337.66.1199291992.66666666677.66.11992101992.757.36.11992111992.83333333337.46.11992121992.91666666677.46.01993119937.36.0199321993.08333333337.16.0199331993.166666666776.0199341993.257.16.0199351993.33333333337.15.9199361993.416666666775.9199371993.56.95.9199381993.58333333336.85.9199391993.66666666676.75.91993101993.756.85.81993111993.83333333336.65.81993121993.91666666676.55.81994119946.65.8199421994.08333333336.65.8199431994.16666666676.55.8199441994.256.45.8199451994.33333333336.15.8199461994.41666666676.15.8199471994.56.15.8199481994.583333333365.7199491994.66666666675.95.71994101994.755.85.71994111994.83333333335.65.71994121994.91666666675.55.71995119955.65.7199521995.08333333335.45.7199531995.16666666675.45.7199541995.255.85.7199551995.33333333335.65.7199561995.41666666675.65.7199571995.55.75.7199581995.58333333335.75.7199591995.66666666675.65.61995101995.755.55.61995111995.83333333335.65.61995121995.91666666675.65.61996119965.65.6199621996.08333333335.55.6199631996.16666666675.55.6199641996.255.65.6199651996.33333333335.65.6199661996.41666666675.35.6199671996.55.55.6199681996.58333333335.15.6199691996.66666666675.25.61996101996.755.25.61996111996.83333333335.45.61996121996.91666666675.45.61997119975.35.5199721997.08333333335.25.5199731997.16666666675.25.5199741997.255.15.5199751997.33333333334.95.5199761997.416666666755.5199771997.54.95.5199781997.58333333334.85.5199791997.66666666674.95.51997101997.754.75.51997111997.83333333334.65.51997121997.91666666674.75.51998119984.65.5199821998.08333333334.65.5199831998.16666666674.75.5199841998.254.45.5199851998.33333333334.45.5199861998.41666666674.55.5199871998.54.65.5199881998.58333333334.55.5199891998.66666666674.55.51998101998.754.55.51998111998.83333333334.45.51998121998.91666666674.45.51999119994.35.5199921999.08333333334.35.5199931999.16666666674.25.5199941999.254.45.5199951999.33333333334.25.5199961999.41666666674.35.5199971999.54.35.5199981999.58333333334.25.5199991999.66666666674.25.51999101999.754.15.51999111999.83333333334.15.51999121999.91666666674.15.520001200045.5200022000.08333333334.15.5200032000.166666666745.5200042000.253.95.5200052000.33333333334.15.5200062000.416666666745.5200072000.54.15.5200082000.58333333334.15.5200092000.666666666745.52000102000.753.95.52000112000.833333333345.52000122000.916666666745.52001120014.25.5200122001.08333333334.25.5200132001.16666666674.35.5200142001.254.55.5200152001.33333333334.45.5200162001.41666666674.65.5200172001.54.65.5200182001.58333333334.95.5200192001.666666666755.52001102001.755.45.52001112001.83333333335.65.52001122001.91666666675.85.52002120025.65.5200222002.08333333335.55.4200232002.16666666675.75.4200242002.2565.4200252002.33333333335.85.4200265.5200275.5200285.5200295.52002105.52002115.52002125.5200315.5200325.5200335.5200345.5200355.5200365.5200375.5200385.5200395.52003105.52003115.52003125.5200415.5200425.5200435.5200445.5200455.5200465.5200475.5200485.5200495.52004105.52004115.52004125.5200515.5200525.5200535.5200545.5200555.5200565.5200575.5200585.5200595.52005105.52005115.52005125.5200615.5200625.5200635.5200645.5200655.5200665.5200675.5200685.5200695.52006105.52006115.52006125.5200715.5200725.5200735.5200745.5200755.5200765.5200775.5200785.5200795.52007105.52007115.52007125.5200815.5200825.5200835.5200845.5200855.5200865.5200875.5200885.5200895.52008105.52008115.52008125.5200915.5200925.5200935.5200945.5200955.5200965.5200975.5200985.5200995.52009105.52009115.52009125.5201015.5201025.5201035.5201045.5201055.5201065.5201075.5201085.5201095.52010105.52010115.52010125.5201115.5201125.5201135.5201145.5201155.5201165.5201175.5201185.5201195.52011105.52011115.52011125.5201215.5201225.5201235.5201245.5201255.5201265.5201275.5201285.5201295.52012105.52012115.52012125.5201315.5201325.5201335.5201345.5201355.5201365.5201375.5201385.5201395.52013105.52013115.52013125.5

U rate chart5.84.77842323656.44.78008298766.74.77966804987.44.7775933617.44.775933617.34.77676348557.54.77717842327.44.77676348557.14.77468879676.74.77302904566.24.77178423246.24.770124481364.76763485485.94.76390041495.64.75850622415.24.75186721995.14.743983402554.73319502075.14.72199170125.24.70871369295.54.69585062245.74.68381742745.84.6655601665.34.6535269715.24.64232365154.84.6327800835.44.62448132785.24.61742738595.14.61327800835.44.61078838175.54.60912863075.64.60954356855.54.61327800836.14.61784232376.14.62489626566.64.6327800836.64.63941908716.94.64854771786.94.659336099674.66970954367.14.68132780086.94.693360995974.70497925316.64.71742738596.74.72946058096.54.73983402496.14.750207468964.76058091295.84.77178423245.54.78215767635.64.79336099595.64.80497925315.54.81659751045.54.82780082995.44.83858921165.74.84854771785.64.85726141085.44.86763485485.74.87717842325.54.88713692955.74.89626556025.94.90497925315.74.91452282165.74.92448132785.94.93360995855.64.94356846475.64.95311203325.44.96224066395.54.97095435685.54.97800829885.74.98506224075.54.99087136935.64.99336099595.44.99460580915.44.99419087145.34.99170124485.14.98838174275.24.98630705394.94.985892116254.98464730295.14.98423236515.14.98381742744.84.987551867254.99543568464.95.00829875525.15.02157676354.75.03775933614.85.0551867224.65.07302904564.65.09170124484.45.10995850624.45.12821576764.35.14564315354.25.16348547724.15.180082987645.196680497945.2120331953.85.22738589213.85.24273858923.85.25726141083.95.27136929463.85.28506224073.85.29958506223.85.31369294613.75.32821576763.75.34398340253.65.36016597513.85.37468879673.95.38838174273.85.40248962663.85.41701244813.85.43153526973.85.44439834023.95.45726141083.85.46804979253.85.47966804983.85.490871369345.50082987553.95.5103734443.85.51576763493.75.5207468883.85.52282157683.75.5224066393.55.51991701243.55.51410788383.75.50788381743.75.50331950213.55.49668049793.45.49087136933.45.48547717843.45.48215767633.45.48132780083.45.48008298763.45.47966804983.45.4792531123.45.48008298763.45.48174273863.55.48423236513.55.48713692953.55.49087136933.75.49377593363.75.49585062243.55.49668049793.55.49751037343.95.5016597514.25.50622406644.45.51244813284.65.51867219924.85.52821576764.95.538589211655.54854771785.15.55767634855.45.5655601665.55.57385892125.95.57966804986.15.58423236515.95.5879668055.95.591286307165.59336099595.95.59460580915.95.59668049795.95.59834024965.59958506226.15.601244813365.60539419095.85.61037344465.617842323765.62780082995.85.63858921165.75.65145228225.85.66597510375.75.68132780085.75.69709543575.75.71410788385.65.73195020755.65.75020746895.55.76846473035.65.78838174275.35.81078838175.25.83195020754.95.852282157755.87178423244.95.890041493855.90871369294.95.92697095444.95.94439834024.85.96016597514.85.97634854774.85.99211618264.66.00580912864.86.01825726144.96.02904564325.16.03941908715.26.04854771785.16.05850622415.16.06804979255.16.07676348555.46.08547717845.56.09502074695.56.10580912865.96.115352697166.12489626566.66.13360995857.26.14398340258.16.1535269718.16.16307053948.66.17178423248.86.182572614196.19253112038.86.20414937768.66.21576763498.46.22697095448.46.23817427398.46.24979253118.36.26141078848.26.27344398347.96.28464730297.76.29792531127.66.3120331957.76.32572614117.46.33983402497.66.3535269717.86.36680497937.86.37966804987.66.39294605817.76.40663900417.86.41991701247.86.43236514527.56.44398340257.66.4551867227.46.46680497937.26.477178423276.48755186727.26.49751037346.96.506639004176.51576763496.86.52448132786.86.53360995856.86.54107883826.46.54854771786.46.55643153536.36.56473029056.36.57261410796.16.579668049866.58838174275.96.59626556026.26.60331950215.96.611203319566.61908713695.86.62738589215.96.635269709566.6431535275.96.65145228225.96.65892116185.86.6655601665.86.67302904565.66.68049792535.76.68838174275.76.695435684666.70248962665.96.709958506266.71659751045.96.723651452366.73153526976.36.73941908716.36.74522821586.36.74937759346.96.7535269717.56.7568464737.66.75850622417.86.76099585067.76.76390041497.56.7672199177.56.76929460587.56.77219917017.26.77385892127.56.77510373447.46.77800829887.46.78174273867.26.78464730297.56.78879668057.56.79294605817.26.79668049797.46.80041493787.66.80373443987.96.80788381748.36.81286307058.56.81825726148.66.82365145238.96.830290456496.83734439839.36.84398340259.46.85186721999.66.86058091299.86.8688796689.86.877178423210.16.885477178410.46.892946058110.86.900414937810.86.909128630710.46.917842323710.46.926970954410.36.935269709510.26.944398340210.16.953112033210.16.96182572619.46.97012448139.56.97842323659.26.98630705398.86.99460580918.57.00290456438.37.009958506287.01701244817.87.02323651457.87.02863070547.77.03402489637.47.03817427397.27.04232365157.57.04522821587.57.04730290467.37.04896265567.47.04854771787.27.04688796687.37.04232365157.37.03568464737.27.02448132787.27.01327800837.37.0016597517.26.98838174277.46.97427385897.46.96141078847.16.94937759347.16.93775933617.16.925726141176.914107883876.90290456436.76.89211618267.26.88215767637.26.87302904567.16.86473029057.26.85601659757.26.847302904676.83858921166.96.827385892176.816597510476.80663900416.96.79709543576.66.78713692956.66.77676348556.66.7672199176.66.75726141086.36.74771784236.36.73817427396.26.72987551876.16.720331950266.71161825735.96.702904564366.69419087145.86.68506224075.76.67634854775.76.6688796685.76.66141078845.76.65477178425.46.64688796685.66.63983402495.46.63360995855.46.62821576765.66.62116182575.46.61535269715.46.60912863075.36.60331950215.36.59709543575.46.59004149385.26.583402489656.57634854775.26.57053941915.26.56390041495.36.55850622415.26.55269709545.26.5464730295.36.53900414945.36.53153526975.46.52365145235.46.51618257265.46.50788381745.36.49875518675.26.48921161835.46.4792531125.46.46763485485.26.45311203325.56.43858921165.76.42323651455.96.40788381745.96.39294605816.26.37842323656.36.36390041496.46.35145228226.66.33775933616.86.32489626566.76.31286307056.96.30124481336.96.28921161836.86.27717842326.96.26763485486.96.257676348576.248547717876.23900414947.36.22863070547.36.21659751047.46.20373443987.46.19045643157.46.17800829887.66.16348547727.86.14730290467.76.13029045647.66.11244813287.66.09460580917.36.07551867227.46.0551867227.46.03319502077.36.01120331957.15.990871369375.97053941917.15.95062240667.15.93112033275.9120331956.95.89294605816.85.87676348556.75.86016597516.85.8448132786.65.8311203326.55.81867219926.65.80705394196.65.79668049796.55.78713692956.45.7775933616.15.76846473036.15.76058091296.15.75352697165.74522821585.95.73692946065.85.72946058095.65.72157676355.55.71452282165.65.70705394195.45.69958506225.45.69253112035.85.68547717845.65.67800829885.65.67095435685.75.66307053945.75.6551867225.65.64854771785.55.64190871375.65.63526970955.65.62904564325.65.62282157685.55.61784232375.55.61078838175.65.60373443985.65.59709543575.35.59004149385.55.58298755195.15.57676348555.25.57095435685.25.56473029055.45.55850622415.45.55269709545.35.54813278015.25.54356846475.25.53900414945.15.5344398344.95.53112033255.52780082994.95.52489626564.85.5224066394.95.52033195024.75.51867219924.65.51659751044.75.51535269714.65.51452282164.65.51369294614.75.51286307054.45.5120331954.45.51244813284.55.5120331954.65.51244813284.55.51286307054.55.51244813284.55.51286307054.45.51327800834.45.51410788384.35.51493775934.35.51535269714.25.51659751044.45.51867219924.25.51991701244.35.52116182574.35.52199170124.25.52323651454.25.52448132784.15.52531120334.15.52614107884.15.526556016645.52697095444.15.527385892145.52821576763.95.52946058094.15.529875518745.53029045644.15.53153526974.15.531535269745.53070539423.95.529045643245.527385892145.52448132784.25.52116182574.25.51742738594.35.51286307054.55.50746887974.45.50248962664.65.49668049794.65.49087136934.95.485477178455.47966804985.45.47385892125.65.46763485485.85.46141078845.65.45394190875.55.4464730295.75.438589211665.43070539425.85.4228215768

Unemployment rateNatural rate of unemploymentPercent of labor force

dataCivilian Unemployment Rate, % of labor force, seasonally adjustedSource: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor StatisticsThe natural rate is estimated by averaging all the unemployment rates from 10 years earlier to 10 years later;future unemployment rates are set at 5.5%yearmonthX AxisU ratenatural U rate1948119483.4194821948.08333333333.8194831948.16666666674194841948.253.9194851948.33333333333.5194861948.41666666673.6194871948.53.6194881948.58333333333.9194891948.66666666673.81948101948.753.71948111948.83333333333.81948121948.916666666741949119494.3194921949.08333333334.7194931949.16666666675194941949.255.3194951949.33333333336.1194961949.41666666676.2194971949.56.7194981949.58333333336.8194991949.66666666676.61949101949.757.91949111949.83333333336.41949121949.91666666676.61950119506.5195021950.08333333336.4195031950.16666666676.3195041950.255.8195051950.33333333335.5195061950.41666666675.4195071950.55195081950.58333333334.5195091950.66666666674.41950101950.754.21950111950.83333333334.21950121950.91666666674.31951119513.7195121951.08333333333.4195131951.16666666673.4195141951.253.1195151951.33333333333195161951.41666666673.2195171951.53.1195181951.58333333333.1195191951.66666666673.31951101951.753.51951111951.83333333333.51951121951.91666666673.11952119523.2195221952.08333333333.1195231952.16666666672.9195241952.252.9195251952.33333333333195261952.41666666673195271952.53.2195281952.58333333333.4195291952.66666666673.11952101952.7531952111952.83333333332.81952121952.91666666672.71953119532.9195321953.08333333332.6195331953.16666666672.6195341953.252.7195351953.33333333332.5195361953.41666666672.5195371953.52.6195381953.58333333332.7195391953.66666666672.91953101953.753.11953111953.83333333333.51953121953.91666666674.51954119544.9195421954.08333333335.2195431954.16666666675.7195441954.255.9195451954.33333333335.9195461954.41666666675.6195471954.55.8195481954.58333333336195491954.66666666676.11954101954.755.71954111954.83333333335.31954121954.916666666751955119554.9195521955.08333333334.7195531955.16666666674.6195541955.254.7195551955.33333333334.3195561955.41666666674.2195571955.54195581955.58333333334.2195591955.66666666674.11955101955.754.31955111955.83333333334.21955121955.91666666674.21956119564195621956.08333333333.9195631956.16666666674.2195641956.254195651956.33333333334.3195661956.41666666674.3195671956.54.4195681956.58333333334.1195691956.66666666673.91956101956.753.91956111956.83333333334.31956121956.91666666674.21957119574.2195721957.08333333333.9195731957.16666666673.7195741957.253.9195751957.33333333334.1195761957.41666666674.3195771957.54.2195781957.58333333334.1195791957.66666666674.41957101957.754.51957111957.83333333335.11957121957.91666666675.21958119585.84.8195821958.08333333336.44.8195831958.16666666676.74.8195841958.257.44.8195851958.33333333337.44.8195861958.41666666677.34.8195871958.57.54.8195881958.58333333337.44.8195891958.66666666677.14.81958101958.756.74.81958111958.83333333336.24.81958121958.91666666676.24.819591195964.8195921959.08333333335.94.8195931959.16666666675.64.8195941959.255.24.8195951959.33333333335.14.7195961959.416666666754.7195971959.55.14.7195981959.58333333335.24.7195991959.66666666675.54.71959101959.755.74.71959111959.83333333335.84.71959121959.91666666675.34.71960119605.24.6196021960.08333333334.84.6196031960.16666666675.44.6196041960.255.24.6196051960.33333333335.14.6196061960.41666666675.44.6196071960.55.54.6196081960.58333333335.64.6196091960.66666666675.54.61960101960.756.14.61960111960.83333333336.14.61960121960.91666666676.64.61961119616.64.6196121961.08333333336.94.6196131961.16666666676.94.7196141961.2574.7196151961.33333333337.14.7196161961.41666666676.94.7196171961.574.7196181961.58333333336.64.7196191961.66666666676.74.71961101961.756.54.71961111961.83333333336.14.81961121961.916666666764.81962119625.84.8196221962.08333333335.54.8196231962.16666666675.64.8196241962.255.64.8196251962.33333333335.54.8196261962.41666666675.54.8196271962.55.44.8196281962.58333333335.74.8196291962.66666666675.64.91962101962.755.44.91962111962.83333333335.74.91962121962.91666666675.54.91963119635.74.9196321963.08333333335.94.9196331963.16666666675.74.9196341963.255.74.9196351963.33333333335.94.9196361963.41666666675.64.9196371963.55.65.0196381963.58333333335.45.0196391963.66666666675.55.01963101963.755.55.01963111963.83333333335.75.01963121963.91666666675.55.01964119645.65.0196421964.08333333335.45.0196431964.16666666675.45.0196441964.255.35.0196451964.33333333335.15.0196461964.41666666675.25.0196471964.54.95.0196481964.583333333355.0196491964.66666666675.15.01964101964.755.15.01964111964.83333333334.85.01964121964.916666666755.01965119654.95.0196521965.08333333335.15.0196531965.16666666674.75.0196541965.254.85.1196551965.33333333334.65.1196561965.41666666674.65.1196571965.54.45.1196581965.58333333334.45.1196591965.66666666674.35.11965101965.754.25.21965111965.83333333334.15.21965121965.916666666745.219661196645.2196621966.08333333333.85.2196631966.16666666673.85.2196641966.253.85.3196651966.33333333333.95.3196661966.41666666673.85.3196671966.53.85.3196681966.58333333333.85.3196691966.66666666673.75.31966101966.753.75.31966111966.83333333333.65.41966121966.91666666673.85.41967119673.95.4196721967.08333333333.85.4196731967.16666666673.85.4196741967.253.85.4196751967.33333333333.85.4196761967.41666666673.95.5196771967.53.85.5196781967.58333333333.85.5196791967.66666666673.85.51967101967.7545.51967111967.83333333333.95.51967121967.91666666673.85.51968119683.75.5196821968.08333333333.85.5196831968.16666666673.75.5196841968.253.55.5196851968.33333333333.55.5196861968.41666666673.75.5196871968.53.75.5196881968.58333333333.55.5196891968.66666666673.45.51968101968.753.45.51968111968.83333333333.45.51968121968.91666666673.45.51969119693.45.5196921969.08333333333.45.5196931969.16666666673.45.5196941969.253.45.5196951969.33333333333.45.5196961969.41666666673.55.5196971969.53.55.5196981969.58333333333.55.5196991969.66666666673.75.51969101969.753.75.51969111969.83333333333.55.51969121969.91666666673.55.51970119703.95.5197021970.08333333334.25.5197031970.16666666674.45.5197041970.254.65.5197051970.33333333334.85.5197061970.41666666674.95.5197071970.555.5197081970.58333333335.15.6197091970.66666666675.45.61970101970.755.55.61970111970.83333333335.95.61970121970.91666666676.15.61971119715.95.6197121971.08333333335.95.6197131971.166666666765.6197141971.255.95.6197151971.33333333335.95.6197161971.41666666675.95.6197171971.565.6197181971.58333333336.15.6197191971.666666666765.61971101971.755.85.61971111971.833333333365.61971121971.916666666765.61972119725.85.6197221972.08333333335.75.7197231972.16666666675.85.7197241972.255.75.7197251972.33333333335.75.7197261972.41666666675.75.7197271972.55.65.7197281972.58333333335.65.8197291972.66666666675.55.81972101972.755.65.81972111972.83333333335.35.81972121972.91666666675.25.81973119734.95.9197321973.083333333355.9197331973.16666666674.95.9197341973.2555.9197351973.33333333334.95.9197361973.41666666674.95.9197371973.54.86.0197381973.58333333334.86.0197391973.66666666674.86.01973101973.754.66.01973111973.83333333334.86.01973121973.91666666674.96.01974119745.16.0197421974.08333333335.26.0197431974.16666666675.16.1197441974.255.16.1197451974.33333333335.16.1197461974.41666666675.46.1197471974.55.56.1197481974.58333333335.56.1197491974.66666666675.96.11974101974.7566.11974111974.83333333336.66.11974121974.91666666677.26.11975119758.16.2197521975.08333333338.16.2197531975.16666666678.66.2197541975.258.86.2197551975.333333333396.2197561975.41666666678.86.2197571975.58.66.2197581975.58333333338.46.2197591975.66666666678.46.21975101975.758.46.21975111975.83333333338.36.31975121975.91666666678.26.31976119767.96.3197621976.08333333337.76.3197631976.16666666677.66.3197641976.257.76.3197651976.33333333337.46.3197661976.41666666677.66.4197671976.57.86.4197681976.58333333337.86.4197691976.66666666677.66.41976101976.757.76.41976111976.83333333337.86.41976121976.91666666677.86.41977119777.56.4197721977.08333333337.66.5197731977.16666666677.46.5197741977.257.26.5197751977.333333333376.5197761977.41666666677.26.5197771977.56.96.5197781977.583333333376.5197791977.66666666676.86.51977101977.756.86.51977111977.83333333336.86.51977121977.91666666676.46.51978119786.46.6197821978.08333333336.36.6197831978.16666666676.36.6197841978.256.16.6197851978.333333333366.6197861978.41666666675.96.6197871978.56.26.6197881978.58333333335.96.6197891978.666666666766.61978101978.755.86.61978111978.83333333335.96.61978121978.916666666766.61979119795.96.7197921979.08333333335.96.7197931979.16666666675.86.7197941979.255.86.7197951979.33333333335.66.7197961979.41666666675.76.7197971979.55.76.7197981979.583333333366.7197991979.66666666675.96.71979101979.7566.71979111979.83333333335.96.71979121979.916666666766.71980119806.36.7198021980.08333333336.36.7198031980.16666666676.36.7198041980.256.96.8198051980.33333333337.56.8198061980.41666666677.66.8198071980.57.86.8198081980.58333333337.76.8198091980.66666666677.56.81980101980.757.56.81980111980.83333333337.56.81980121980.91666666677.26.81981119817.56.8198121981.08333333337.46.8198131981.16666666677.46.8198141981.257.26.8198151981.33333333337.56.8198161981.41666666677.56.8198171981.57.26.8198181981.58333333337.46.8198191981.66666666677.66.81981101981.757.96.81981111981.83333333338.36.81981121981.91666666678.56.81982119828.66.8198221982.08333333338.96.8198231982.166666666796.8198241982.259.36.8198251982.33333333339.46.9198261982.41666666679.66.9198271982.59.86.9198281982.58333333339.86.9198291982.666666666710.16.91982101982.7510.46.91982111982.833333333310.86.91982121982.916666666710.86.919831198310.46.9198321983.083333333310.46.9198331983.166666666710.36.9198341983.2510.26.9198351983.333333333310.17.0198361983.416666666710.17.0198371983.59.47.0198381983.58333333339.57.0198391983.66666666679.27.01983101983.758.87.01983111983.83333333338.57.01983121983.91666666678.37.019841198487.0198421984.08333333337.87.0198431984.16666666677.87.0198441984.257.77.0198451984.33333333337.47.0198461984.41666666677.27.0198471984.57.57.0198481984.58333333337.57.0198491984.66666666677.37.01984101984.757.47.01984111984.83333333337.27.01984121984.91666666677.37.01985119857.37.0198521985.08333333337.27.0198531985.16666666677.27.0198541985.257.37.0198551985.33333333337.27.0198561985.41666666677.47.0198571985.57.47.0198581985.58333333337.16.9198591985.66666666677.16.91985101985.757.16.91985111985.833333333376.91985121985.916666666776.91986119866.76.9198621986.08333333337.26.9198631986.16666666677.26.9198641986.257.16.9198651986.33333333337.26.9198661986.41666666677.26.8198671986.576.8198681986.58333333336.96.8198691986.666666666776.81986101986.7576.81986111986.83333333336.96.81986121986.91666666676.66.81987119876.66.8198721987.08333333336.66.8198731987.16666666676.66.8198741987.256.36.7198751987.33333333336.36.7198761987.41666666676.26.7198771987.56.16.7198781987.583333333366.7198791987.66666666675.96.71987101987.7566.71987111987.83333333335.86.71987121987.91666666675.76.71988119885.76.7198821988.08333333335.76.7198831988.16666666675.76.7198841988.255.46.6198851988.33333333335.66.6198861988.41666666675.46.6198871988.55.46.6198881988.58333333335.66.6198891988.66666666675.46.61988101988.755.46.61988111988.83333333335.36.61988121988.91666666675.36.61989119895.46.6198921989.08333333335.26.6198931989.166666666756.6198941989.255.26.6198951989.33333333335.26.6198961989.41666666675.36.6198971989.55.26.6198981989.58333333335.26.5198991989.66666666675.36.51989101989.755.36.51989111989.83333333335.46.51989121989.91666666675.46.51990119905.46.5199021990.08333333335.36.5199031990.16666666675.26.5199041990.255.46.5199051990.33333333335.46.5199061990.41666666675.26.5199071990.55.56.4199081990.58333333335.76.4199091990.66666666675.96.41990101990.755.96.41990111990.83333333336.26.41990121990.91666666676.36.41991119916.46.4199121991.08333333336.66.3199131991.16666666676.86.3199141991.256.76.3199151991.33333333336.96.3199161991.41666666676.96.3199171991.56.86.3199181991.58333333336.96.3199191991.66666666676.96.31991101991.7576.21991111991.833333333376.21991121991.91666666677.36.21992119927.36.2199221992.08333333337.46.2199231992.16666666677.46.2199241992.257.46.2199251992.33333333337.66.2199261992.41666666677.86.1199271992.57.76.1199281992.58333333337.66.1199291992.66666666677.66.11992101992.757.36.11992111992.83333333337.46.11992121992.91666666677.46.01993119937.36.0199321993.08333333337.16.0199331993.166666666776.0199341993.257.16.0199351993.33333333337.15.9199361993.416666666775.9199371993.56.95.9199381993.58333333336.85.9199391993.66666666676.75.91993101993.756.85.81993111993.83333333336.65.81993121993.91666666676.55.81994119946.65.8199421994.08333333336.65.8199431994.16666666676.55.8199441994.256.45.8199451994.33333333336.15.8199461994.41666666676.15.8199471994.56.15.8199481994.583333333365.7199491994.66666666675.95.71994101994.755.85.71994111994.83333333335.65.71994121994.91666666675.55.71995119955.65.7199521995.08333333335.45.7199531995.16666666675.45.7199541995.255.85.7199551995.33333333335.65.7199561995.41666666675.65.7199571995.55.75.7199581995.58333333335.75.7199591995.66666666675.65.61995101995.755.55.61995111995.83333333335.65.61995121995.91666666675.65.61996119965.65.6199621996.08333333335.55.6199631996.16666666675.55.6199641996.255.65.6199651996.33333333335.65.6199661996.41666666675.35.6199671996.55.55.6199681996.58333333335.15.6199691996.66666666675.25.61996101996.755.25.61996111996.83333333335.45.61996121996.91666666675.45.61997119975.35.5199721997.08333333335.25.5199731997.16666666675.25.5199741997.255.15.5199751997.33333333334.95.5199761997.416666666755.5199771997.54.95.5199781997.58333333334.85.5199791997.66666666674.95.51997101997.754.75.51997111997.83333333334.65.51997121997.91666666674.75.51998119984.65.5199821998.08333333334.65.5199831998.16666666674.75.5199841998.254.45.5199851998.33333333334.45.5199861998.41666666674.55.5199871998.54.65.5199881998.58333333334.55.5199891998.66666666674.55.51998101998.754.55.51998111998.83333333334.45.51998121998.91666666674.45.51999119994.35.5199921999.08333333334.35.5199931999.16666666674.25.5199941999.254.45.5199951999.33333333334.25.5199961999.41666666674.35.5199971999.54.35.5199981999.58333333334.25.5199991999.66666666674.25.51999101999.754.15.51999111999.83333333334.15.51999121999.91666666674.15.520001200045.5200022000.08333333334.15.5200032000.166666666745.5200042000.253.95.5200052000.33333333334.15.5200062000.416666666745.5200072000.54.15.5200082000.58333333334.15.5200092000.666666666745.52000102000.753.95.52000112000.833333333345.52000122000.916666666745.52001120014.25.5200122001.08333333334.25.5200132001.16666666674.35.5200142001.254.55.5200152001.33333333334.45.5200162001.41666666674.65.5200172001.54.65.5200182001.58333333334.95.5200192001.666666666755.52001102001.755.45.52001112001.83333333335.65.52001122001.91666666675.85.52002120025.65.5200222002.08333333335.55.4200232002.16666666675.75.4200242002.2565.4200252002.33333333335.85.4200265.5200275.5200285.5200295.52002105.52002115.52002125.5200315.5200325.5200335.5200345.5200355.5200365.5200375.5200385.5200395.52003105.52003115.52003125.5200415.5200425.5200435.5200445.5200455.5200465.5200475.5200485.5200495.52004105.52004115.52004125.5200515.5200525.5200535.5200545.5200555.5200565.5200575.5200585.5200595.52005105.52005115.52005125.5200615.5200625.5200635.5200645.5200655.5200665.5200675.5200685.5200695.52006105.52006115.52006125.5200715.5200725.5200735.5200745.5200755.5200765.5200775.5200785.5200795.52007105.52007115.52007125.5200815.5200825.5200835.5200845.5200855.5200865.5200875.5200885.5200895.52008105.52008115.52008125.5200915.5200925.5200935.5200945.5200955.5200965.5200975.5200985.5200995.52009105.52009115.52009125.5201015.5201025.5201035.5201045.5201055.5201065.5201075.5201085.5201095.52010105.52010115.52010125.5201115.5201125.5201135.5201145.5201155.5201165.5201175.5201185.5201195.52011105.52011115.52011125.5201215.5201225.5201235.5201245.5201255.5201265.5201275.5201285.5201295.52012105.52012115.52012125.5201315.5201325.5201335.5201345.5201355.5201365.5201375.5201385.5201395.52013105.52013115.52013125.5

oil price data, CPIoil prices.xlsoil price = spot price for 'West Texas Intermediate'base=1983in 1983 dollarsbase=2000.8in today's dollarsCPI inflationyearmoX axisoil priceCPI"real oil price"CPIreal oil pricefrom 12 mos ago.194611946.081.1718.26.4310.511.11194621946.171.1718.16.4610.511.17194631946.251.1718.36.3910.611.05194641946.331.2718.46.9010.611.93194651946.421.2718.56.8610.711.86194661946.501.2718.76.7910.811.74194671946.581.2719.86.4111.511.08194681946.671.5220.27.5211.713.00194691946.751.5220.47.4511.812.881946101946.831.5220.87.3112.012.631946111946.921.5221.37.1412.312.331946121947.001.6221.57.5312.413.02194711947.081.6221.57.5312.413.0218.1194721947.171.6221.57.5312.413.0218.8194731947.251.6221.97.4012.712.7819.7194741947.331.8721.98.5412.714.7619.0194751947.421.8721.98.5412.714.7618.4194761947.501.87228.5012.714.6917.6194771947.581.8722.28.4212.814.5612.1194781947.671.8722.58.3113.014.3611.4194791947.751.87238.1313.314.0512.71947101947.831.87238.1313.314.0510.61947111947.922.0723.18.9613.415.488.51947121948.002.0723.48.8513.515.298.8194811948.082.5723.710.8413.718.7410.2194821948.172.5723.510.9413.618.909.3194831948.252.5723.410.9813.518.986.8194841948.332.5723.810.8013.818.668.7194851948.422.5723.910.7513.818.589.1194861948.502.5724.110.6613.918.439.5194871948.582.5724.410.5314.118.209.9194881948.672.5724.510.4914.218.138.9194891948.752.5724.510.4914.218.136.51948101948.832.5724.410.5314.118.206.11948111948.922.5724.210.6214.018.354.81948121949.002.5724.110.6613.918.433.0194911949.082.572410.7113.918.501.3194921949.172.5723.810.8013.818.661.3194931949.252.5723.810.8013.818.661.7194941949.332.5723.910.7513.818.580.4194951949.422.5723.810.8013.818.66-0.4194961949.502.5723.910.7513.818.58-0.8194971949.582.5723.710.8413.718.74-2.9194981949.672.5723.810.8013.818.66-2.9194991949.752.5723.910.7513.818.58-2.41949101949.832.5723.710.8413.718.74-2.91949111949.922.5723.810.8013.818.66-1.71949121950.002.5723.610.8913.718.82-2.1195011950.082.5723.510.9413.618.90-2.1195021950.172.5723.510.9413.618.90-1.3195031950.252.5723.610.8913.718.82-0.8195041950.332.5723.610.8913.718.82-1.3195051950.422.5723.710.8413.718.74-0.4195061950.502.5723.810.8013.818.66-0.4195071950.582.5724.110.6613.918.431.7195081950.672.5724.310.5814.118.282.1195091950.752.5724.410.5314.118.202.11950101950.832.5724.610.4514.218.053.81950111950.922.5724.710.4014.317.983.81950121951.002.572510.2814.517.765.9195111951.082.5725.410.1214.717.488.1195121951.172.5725.710.0014.917.289.4195131951.252.5725.89.9614.917.219.3195141951.332.5725.89.9614.917.219.3195151951.422.5725.99.9215.017.159.3195161951.502.5725.99.9215.017.158.8195171951.582.5725.99.9215.017.157.5195181951.672.5725.99.9215.017.156.6195191951.752.5726.19.8515.117.027.01951101951.832.5726.29.8115.216.956.51951111951.922.5726.49.7315.316.826.91951121952.002.5726.59.7015.316.766.0195211952.082.5726.59.7015.316.764.3195221952.172.5726.39.7715.216.892.3195231952.252.5726.39.7715.216.891.9195241952.332.5726.49.7315.316.822.3195251952.422.5726.49.7315.316.821.9195261952.502.5726.59.7015.316.762.3195271952.582.5726.79.6315.516.633.1195281952.672.5726.79.6315.516.633.1195291952.752.5726.79.6315.516.632.31952101952.832.5726.79.6315.516.631.91952111952.922.5726.79.6315.516.631.11952121953.002.5726.79.6315.516.630.8195311953.082.5726.69.6615.416.700.4195321953.172.5726.59.7015.316.760.8195331953.252.5726.69.6615.416.701.1195341953.332.5726.69.6615.416.700.8195351953.422.5726.79.6315.516.631.1195361953.502.8226.810.5215.518.181.1195371953.582.8226.810.5215.518.180.4195381953.672.8226.910.4815.618.120.7195391953.752.8226.910.4815.618.120.71953101953.832.822710.4415.618.051.11953111953.922.8226.910.4815.618.120.71953121954.002.8226.910.4815.618.120.7195411954.082.8226.910.4815.618.121.1195421954.172.8226.910.4815.618.121.5195431954.252.8226.910.4815.618.121.1195441954.332.8226.810.5215.518.180.8195451954.422.8226.910.4815.618.120.7195461954.502.8226.910.4815.618.120.4195471954.582.8226.910.4815.618.120.4195481954.672.8226.910.4815.618.120.0195491954.752.8226.810.5215.518.18-0.41954101954.832.8226.810.5215.518.18-0.71954111954.922.8226.810.5215.518.18-0.41954121955.002.8226.710.5615.518.25-0.7195511955.082.8226.710.5615.518.25-0.7195521955.172.8226.710.5615.518.25-0.7195531955.252.8226.710.5615.518.25-0.7195541955.332.8226.710.5615.518.25-0.4195551955.422.8226.710.5615.518.25-0.7195561955.502.8226.710.5615.518.25-0.7195571955.582.8226.810.5215.518.18-0.4195581955.672.8226.810.5215.518.18-0.4195591955.752.8226.910.4815.618.120.41955101955.832.8226.910.4815.618.120.41955111955.922.8226.910.4815.618.120.41955121956.002.8226.810.5215.518.180.4195611956.082.8226.810.5215.518.180.4195621956.172.8226.810.5215.518.180.4195631956.252.8226.810.5215.518.180.4195641956.332.8226.910.4815.618.120.7195651956.422.822710.4415.618.051.1195661956.502.8227.210.3715.717.921.9195671956.582.8227.410.2915.917.782.2195681956.672.8227.310.3315.817.851.9195691956.752.8227.410.2915.917.781.91956101956.832.8227.510.2515.917.722.21956111956.922.8227.510.2515.917.722.21956121957.002.8227.610.2216.017.663.0195711957.082.8227.610.2216.017.663.0195721957.173.0727.711.0816.019.153.4195731957.253.0727.811.0416.119.083.7195741957.333.0727.911.0016.119.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