Casey Foundation – Strategic Development Scenarios for

University Avenue Site

Appendices to Project Overview

Submitted to

Annie E. Casey Foundation, June 13, 2014

Annie E. Casey Foundation

Strategic Development Scenarios for University Avenue Site

Appendix to Project Overview

Appendix A: Retail Market Study

UNAVE SITE RETAIL MARKET STUDY

ATLANTA, GEORGIA

RW Ventures

January 2014 www.NoellConsulting.com CONTACT | 404.681.0006

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UNAVE SITE RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Exhibit 1

Strengths, Challenges, and Opportunities of the Subject Site

SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group

13,500 AADT

14

,02

0 A

AD

T

10

,22

0 A

AD

T

Pittsburg Neighborhood

Adair Park Neighborhood

Sylvan Hills Neighborhood

Capitol View Manor

Neighborhood

The Villages of Carver

Neighborhood

Grant Park Neighborhood

Peoplestown Neighborhood

Mechanicsville Neighborhood

West End Neighborhood

Capitol View Neighborhood

Summerhill Neighborhood

Highpoint Neighborhood

Joyland Neighborhood

Strengths Regional location between two major employment cores - Downtown and the airport, 31 contiguous acres with fairly flat topography, over 2,000 feet of frontage on the planned SW segment of the BeltLine,

average parcel depths of 600', and strong access off I-75/85 with an over 260,000 average annual daily traffic (AADT) count. An existing

signalized intersection, 13,500 AADT on University Avenue, and proximity to the Metropolitan Parkway corridor. Limited quality retail in

the area, and a largely stable/recovering household base combined with proximity to southern Grant Park - a strong, emerging

neighborhood. Also additional demand sources in Atlanta Tech College / Metropolitan Univ., Aaron's amphitheatre, and local employees.

Challenges Very low household incomes in Pittsburg and some surrounding neighborhoods.

Concentration of underutilized and blighted properties nearby, including within the

subject site approach from the interstate. Lack of private sector investment in the area. Opportunities

Leverage the moderate income household base in the larger trade area, along with the emerging and migrating affluent households

from Grant Park through the unique BeltLine/Interstate site to deliver

convenience retail in a more easily accessible, and potentially higher quality

environment then where they currently shop.

Future Stadium Redevelopment

Site

SWOT

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UNAVE SITE RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Exhibit 2

Defining the Local Trade Area

SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group, Google Earth, Walkscore.com

After interviewing proprietors and retail brokers in the South Atlanta market, along with examining distances between existing national chains such as Kroger , Save-a-Lot, and

Family Dollar stores, we defined a local retail trade area that is approximately 0.75 miles in radius (5-10 minute drive), but is adjusted based on natural market boundaries such as the

interstate and the river. The resulting local trade area can be seen on the next exhibit.

0.5-Mile Radius

1.0-Mile Radius

Defining the Local Trade Area

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UNAVE SITE RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Exhibit 3

Local Trade Area

SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group, Google Earth, Walkscore.com, US Census

2.0-Mile Radius

1.0-Mile Radius

Local Trade Area

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UNAVE SITE RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Exhibit 4

Existing Retail Cores Within the Trade Area

SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group, Google Earth, Walkscore.com, US Census

Crossroads Shopping Center A dying 1960's mall plagued with no anchor, high small shop vacancies,

loitering, perception and actual crime, and challenged interstate access.

Current tenants include Family Dollar with an adjacent Save-a-Lot, a local gym, and several discount clothing

stores. Outparcels include McDonald's, Wendy's, Captain D's, and Popeyes.

Existing Retail Cores in Trade

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UNAVE SITE RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Exhibit 5

Map of Select Retail Comparables

Subject Site Sqft $/SF

1 Cascade Citi Center 99,516 $16.00

2 Cross Roads 173,000 $8.00

3 Sylvan Plaza 23,750 $8.00

4 City Center Shopping Center 164,637 $9.00

5 230 Cleveland 89,123 $6.50

Average, All Projects

SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group

1

4

3 2

5

Competitive Retail Centers Map

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UNAVE SITE RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Exhibit 6

Summary of Comparable Retail Centers

Photo Center Name Built Total Square Feet Avail. Square feet % Leased Type

Current Tenants / Typical

Tenants

-

Summary: 94,257 90,750 71% $4.00 - $16.00

SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group, The Costar Group

$8.00 - $10.00

230 Cleveland 1964 89,123 74,800 16% $4.00 - $9.00Triple Net

Lease Former Kmart

NA Kroger City Center Shopping

Center

1967 (ren. In

1986)164,637 8,200 95%

$7.60 - $8.40 Net Lease Barber Shop, Nail Salon,

and Beauty supply Sylvan Plaza 1952 23,750 5,600 76%

N/A

Kroger

Marshall's

Athlete's Foot

Crossroads 1969 Approx. 173,000 WND WND $6.00 - $12.00 Neg. Family Dollar

Current Lease Rates

Cascade Citi Center 1973 99,516 2,150 98% $14.00 - $16.00

Retail Comps

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UNAVE SITE RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Exhibit 7

Matrix of Retail Demand Sources For the Trade Area

Existing Local Trade Area

Population

Future Trade Area Population

GrowthLakewood Concert Attendees

Local College &

University Students

Local Employees (Incl. Screen

Gems)

Example Picture

Description

A local population of approx.

32,345, with average per

capita incomes of $15,936.

Projected growth of an additional

2,830 residents through 2018,

with slightly greater affluence

and generally younger and more

racially mixed.

Approx. 250,000 people age 25 - 65 with

HH incomes of $40k+. 80% from

throughout the Atlanta Metro and 20%

from outside.

8,600 full time,

undergraduate students

attending Atlanta

Metropolitan and Atlanta

Tech

Nearly 8,300 employees working in the

trade area, including the in-direct

Screen Gems employees on location,

shopping/dining during their commute

or on lunch breaks.

Expenditure

CategoriesAll All

Destination type retailers, restaurants

(mostly limited service but some full as

well), drinking establishments, and

grocery

Primarily restaurants,

drinking establishments,

and grocery

Full and limited service restaurants

and drinking establishments both

during commute, lunchtime, and happy

hour/dinner, along with some retail

shopping (mostly grocery or

convenience). Also hardware in the

case of Screen Gems.

Estimated Mix of

Total Demand82.7% 7.2% 3.1% 2.7% 4.4%

Estimated Mix of

Retail (Dry goods -

non-grocery)

Demand

88.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3%

Estimated Mix of

Food and

Beverage Store

Demand

87.2% 7.6% 1.2% 1.2% 2.8%

Estimated Mix of

Rest./Bar Demand71.6% 6.3% 8.7% 7.5% 6.0%

SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group

Audience Matrix

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UNAVE SITE RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Exhibit 8

All Recent Home Sales in the Trade Area

SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group, Trulia.com

Local Trade Area Home Sales

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UNAVE SITE RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Exhibit 9

Affluent Recent Home Sales in the Trade Area

SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group, Trulia.com

Sales Above $100k

Sales Above $150k

Local Trade Area Affluent Sales

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UNAVE SITE RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Exhibit 10

2010 Median Household Incomes in the Local Trade Area by Census Tract

SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group, US Census

$76,757 Up 10%

since 2000

$40,521 Up 65%

since 2000

$16,581 Up 65%

since 2000

$30,265 Up 59%

since 2000

$14,347 Down 10% since 2000

$14,509 Down 43% since 2000

$28,654 Down 18% since 2000

$40,644 Down 5%

since 2000 $36,094

Down 7% since 2000

$26,067 Up 14% Since 2000

$16,670 Down 26% since 2000

$25,409 Down 9%

since 2000

$15,563 Down 22% since 2000

$82,250 Up 63%

since 2000

$32,880 Up 58%

since 2000

$18,214 Up 53%

since 2000

Area of greatest affluence and increasing wealth within the trade

area

Area of moderate incomes that is still recovering from the recession

Local Trade Area Incomes

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UNAVE SITE RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Exhibit 11

Local Trade Area Employees

SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group, LEDontheMap

Local Trade Area Employees

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UNAVE SITE RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Exhibit 12

Estimated Retail Demand from the Local Trade Area Today

Demand Potential1 Per Capita

% in Non-

Regional Ctrs2

Sales in Non-Reg

Ctrs

% Local

Sales2

Local Sales in

Non-Reg Ctrs

Est.

Sales/

SF

Subject

Site

Capture

Rate2

Potential

Subject Site

Demand

Mix By Store

Categories

2013 Population 32,345 $15,936 Per Capita Inc., Median HH Income $22,106

Furniture and Home Furnishings $8,548,686 $264 35% $2,966,202 78% $2,304,971 6,015 4%

Furniture Stores $4,532,722 $140 30% $1,359,817 75% $1,019,862 $156 50% 3,269

Home Furnishing Stores $4,015,964 $124 40% $1,606,386 80% $1,285,108 $234 50% 2,746

Electronics & Appliance Stores $6,463,799 $200 20% $1,292,760 20% $258,552 $370 50% 349 0%

Bldg Mats., Garden Equip & Supply $34,031,798 $1,052 30% $10,209,539 82% $8,357,340 25,773 15%

Bldg Materials & Supply Stores $30,869,991 $954 30% $9,260,997 80% $7,408,798 $156 50% 23,746

Lawn & Garden Equipment $3,161,807 $98 30% $948,542 100% $948,542 $234 50% 2,027

Food & Beverage Stores $55,797,677 $1,725 94% $52,197,306 81% $42,073,607 50,327 30%

Grocery Stores $48,421,426 $1,497 95% $46,000,355 80% $36,800,284 $455 50% 40,440

Specialty Food Stores $4,052,437 $125 75% $3,039,328 80% $2,431,462 $193 50% 6,299

Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores $3,323,814 $103 95% $3,157,623 90% $2,841,861 $396 50% 3,588

Health & Personal Care $27,077,573 $837 90% $24,369,816 80% $19,495,853 $458 50% 21,284 13%

Clothing & Clothing Accessories $19,499,582 $603 20% $3,899,916 60% $2,339,950 4,177 2%

Clothing Stores $14,836,168 $459 20% $2,967,234 60% $1,780,340 $287 50% 3,102

Shoe Stores $2,851,301 $88 20% $570,260 60% $342,156 $205 50% 835

Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods $1,812,113 $56 20% $362,423 60% $217,454 $451 50% 241

Sporting Gds, Hobby, Book & Music $7,492,672 $232 22% $1,640,675 60% $984,405 2,508 1%

Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Inst $6,071,263 $188 20% $1,214,253 60% $728,552 $195 50% 1,868

Book & Music Stores $1,421,409 $44 30% $426,423 60% $255,854 $200 50% 640

Miscellaneous Store Retailers $9,885,993 $306 51% $5,028,633 85% $4,252,760 12,172 7%

Florists $410,280 $13 100% $410,280 100% $410,280 $226 50% 908

Office Supplies, Stationery & Gifts $3,046,550 $94 30% $913,965 95% $868,267 $202 50% 2,149

Used Merchandise Stores $979,613 $30 100% $979,613 95% $930,632 $202 50% 2,304

Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers $5,449,550 $168 50% $2,724,775 75% $2,043,581 $150 50% 6,812

Food Service & Drinking Places $38,896,403 $1,203 91% $35,515,594 63% $22,330,467 45,935 27%

Full-Service Restaurants $17,956,582 $555 90% $16,160,924 60% $9,696,554 $308 50% 15,741

Limited-Service Eating Places $15,851,505 $490 90% $14,266,355 65% $9,273,130 $199 50% 23,299

Special Food Services $3,077,927 $95 100% $3,077,927 70% $2,154,549 $200 50% 5,386

Drinking Places $2,010,389 $62 100% $2,010,389 60% $1,206,233 $400 50% 1,508

TOTAL $207,694,183 $6,421 66% $137,120,442 75% $102,397,905 168,540

1 Based on data obtained from Claritas.

2 Estimates via NCG based on ICSC data. Excludes shopping at local establishments outside the area while on destination trips/vacations/near workplace.

SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group, Claritas, Inc.

Store Type (Excl. General

Merch. & Gas)

Local Demand 2013

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UNAVE SITE RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Exhibit 13

Estimated Retail Demand from the Local Trade Area Growth Through 2018

Demand Potential1 Per Capita

% in Non-

Regional Ctrs2

Sales in Non-Reg

Ctrs

% Local

Sales2

Local Sales in

Non-Reg Ctrs

Est.

Sales/

SF

Subject

Site

Capture

Rate2

Potential

Subject Site

Demand

Mix By Store

Categories

Growth Through 2018: 2,830 $15,936 Per Capita Inc., Median HH Income $22,106

Furniture and Home Furnishings $747,960 $264 35% $259,525 78% $201,672 526 4%

Furniture Stores $396,587 $140 30% $118,976 75% $89,232 $156 50% 286

Home Furnishing Stores $351,374 $124 40% $140,549 80% $112,440 $234 50% 240

Electronics & Appliance Stores $565,545 $200 20% $113,109 20% $22,622 $370 50% 31 0%

Bldg Mats., Garden Equip & Supply $2,977,585 $1,052 30% $893,276 82% $731,219 2,255 15%

Bldg Materials & Supply Stores $2,700,945 $954 30% $810,284 80% $648,227 $156 50% 2,078

Lawn & Garden Equipment $276,640 $98 30% $82,992 100% $82,992 $234 50% 177

Food & Beverage Stores $4,881,973 $1,725 94% $4,566,962 81% $3,681,197 4,403 30%

Grocery Stores $4,236,594 $1,497 95% $4,024,764 80% $3,219,812 $455 50% 3,538

Specialty Food Stores $354,565 $125 75% $265,924 80% $212,739 $193 50% 551

Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores $290,814 $103 95% $276,274 90% $248,646 $396 50% 314

Health & Personal Care $2,369,131 $837 90% $2,132,218 80% $1,705,774 $458 50% 1,862 13%

Clothing & Clothing Accessories $1,706,100 $603 20% $341,220 60% $204,732 365 2%

Clothing Stores $1,298,079 $459 20% $259,616 60% $155,769 $287 50% 271

Shoe Stores $249,472 $88 20% $49,894 60% $29,937 $205 50% 73

Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods $158,549 $56 20% $31,710 60% $19,026 $451 50% 21

Sporting Gds, Hobby, Book & Music $655,565 $232 22% $143,550 60% $86,130 219 1%

Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Inst $531,200 $188 20% $106,240 60% $63,744 $195 50% 163

Book & Music Stores $124,365 $44 30% $37,310 60% $22,386 $200 50% 56

Miscellaneous Store Retailers $864,967 $306 51% $439,976 85% $372,092 1,065 7%

Florists $35,897 $13 100% $35,897 100% $35,897 $226 50% 79

Office Supplies, Stationery & Gifts $266,555 $94 30% $79,967 95% $75,968 $202 50% 188

Used Merchandise Stores $85,710 $30 100% $85,710 95% $81,425 $202 50% 202

Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers $476,804 $168 50% $238,402 75% $178,802 $150 50% 596

Food Service & Drinking Places $3,403,210 $1,203 91% $3,107,409 63% $1,953,786 4,019 27%

Full-Service Restaurants $1,571,097 $555 90% $1,413,987 60% $848,392 $308 50% 1,377

Limited-Service Eating Places $1,386,915 $490 90% $1,248,223 65% $811,345 $199 50% 2,039

Special Food Services $269,301 $95 100% $269,301 70% $188,511 $200 50% 471

Drinking Places $175,897 $62 100% $175,897 60% $105,538 $400 50% 132

TOTAL $18,172,037 $6,421 66% $11,997,244 75% $8,959,223 14,746

1 Based on data obtained from Claritas.

2 Estimates via NCG based on ICSC data. Excludes shopping at local establishments outside the area while on destination trips/vacations/near workplace.

SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group, Claritas, Inc.

Store Type (Excl. General

Merch. & Gas)

Local Growth through 2018

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UNAVE SITE RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Exhibit 14

Estimated Retail Demand from Additional Non-Local Sources

Lakewood Concert Attendees *Based on interviews with Lakewood GM and various Economic Impact studies of concert goers

Store Type Demand Potential1SupplyPer Capita

% Dest. Sales in

Local Centers 2

Dest. Sales

Potential

Est. Sales

Potential/

Attendee

Total Sales

Potential All

Attendees

% of Ann.

Dest. Sales

Pre/Post

Concert

Capture Rate

of Subject

Site2

Est. Sales/

SF

Subject Site

Capture

250,000 *Annual Concert Attendees: Population 25 - 65 w/ HH Incomes $50k+, living mostly in Atlanta Metropolitan Region.

Grocery Stores $480,750,000 $1,923 5% $24,037,500 $5 $1,250,000 5% 20% $455 549

Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores $38,750,000 $155 10% $3,875,000 $1 $250,000 6% 20% $396 126

Full-Service Restaurants $243,250,000 $973 35% $85,137,500 $11 $2,750,000 3% 20% $308 1,786

Limited-Service Restaurants $221,750,000 $887 30% $66,525,000 $14 $3,500,000 5% 20% $199 3,518

Drinking Places $23,500,000 $94 25% $5,875,000 $2 $500,000 9% 20% $400 250

TOTAL *Atlanta Metro Per Capita $33 6,229

Atlanta Tech & Metropolitan Student Demand

Store Type Demand Potential1SupplyPer Capita

% Dest. Sales (Not

in Local Trade

Area)

Total Near

Campus Sales

Potential All

Students

Capture

Rate of

Subject

Site2

Est. Sales/ SFSubject Site

Capture

8,100 *Local full time students at Atlanta Metropolitan and Atlanta Tech

Grocery Stores $6,062,970 $749 10% $606,297 50% $455 666

Full-Service Restaurants $2,248,389 $278 50% $1,124,195 50% $308 1,825

Limited-Service Restaurants $1,984,807 $245 50% $992,404 50% $199 2,493

Drinking Places $503,452 $62 75% $377,589 50% $400 472

TOTAL *Est. at 50% of local population except drinking at 100% 5,457

Local Employee Demand

Store Type Demand Potential1SupplyPer Capita

% Sales To/From

or While at Work2

Est. Sales

Near Work

Est. Sales/

SF

Capture Rate of

Subject Site2

Subject Site

Capture

8,271 *Local Employees, working in Local Trade Area. Includes additional 300 Screen Gems direct and indirect.

Bldg Materials & Supply Stores $500,000 $156 75% 2,404 *Screen Gems Only. Estimate from GM, requires

Grocery Stores $12,381,933 $1,497 11% $1,362,013 $455 50% 1,497 direct and on-time lumber delivery.

Specialty Food Stores $1,036,256 $125 5% $51,813 $193 50% 134

Health & Personal Care $6,924,056 $837 13% $900,127 $458 50% 983

Florists $104,913 $13 5% $5,246 $226 50% 12

Office Supplies, Stationery & Gifts $779,039 $94 5% $38,952 $202 50% 96

Full-Service Restaurants $4,591,711 $555 13% $596,922 $308 50% 969

Limited-Service Eating Places $4,053,418 $490 28% $1,134,957 $199 50% 2,852

TOTAL *Local Trade Area Per Capita 8,946

1. Based on audience size times per capita expenditures noted. 2. Estimates via NCG based on lack of quality retail in the trade area.

Add. Demand Sources

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UNAVE SITE RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Exhibit 15

Summary of Estimated Retail Demand (By Source) and Supply By Store Type

Store Type (Excl. Gas)

Demand

Potential From

Local Trade

Area Existing

Pop.

Demand

Potential From

Local Trade

Area Pop.

Growth

Lakewood

Concert

Attendees

Atlanta Tech &

Metropolitan

Student Demand

Local

Employee

Demand

Combined

Demand

From All

Sources

Estimated

Existing

Healthy

Supply

Net Excess

Demand

Excess

Demand Adj.

For Store

Size/Type

Example Tenant's

Furniture and Home Furnishings 6,015 526 0 0 0 6,541 0 6,541 0

Furniture Stores 3,269 286 - - - 3,555 0 3,555 -

Home Furnishing Stores 2,746 240 0 0 - 2,986 0 2,986 -

Electronics & Appliance Stores 349 31 0 0 0 380 2,500 -2,120 -

Bldg Mats., Garden Equip & Supply 25,773 2,255 0 0 2,404 30,432 0 30,432 15,000

Bldg Materials & Supply Stores 23,746 2,078 - - 2,404 28,228 0 28,228 15,000

Lawn & Garden Equipment 2,027 177 - - - 2,204 0 2,204 in above

Food & Beverage Stores 50,327 4,403 676 666 1,631 57,703 0 57,703 56,500

Grocery Stores 40,440 3,538 549 666 1,497 46,691 0 46,691 50,000

Specialty Food Stores 6,299 551 - - 134 6,984 0 6,984 6,500

Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores 3,588 314 126 - - 4,028 0 4,028 -

Health & Personal Care 21,284 1,862 0 0 983 24,129 12,000 12,129 10,000

Clothing & Clothing Accessories 4,177 365 0 0 0 4,543 11,000 -6,457 -

Clothing Stores 3,102 271 - - - 3,373 8,500 -5,127 -

Shoe Stores 835 73 - - - 908 2,500 -1,592 -

Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods 241 21 - - - 262 0 262 -

Sporting Gds, Hobby, Book & Music 2,508 219 0 0 0 2,727 0 2,727 -

Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Inst 1,868 163 - - - 2,032 0 2,032 -

Book & Music Stores 640 56 - - - 696 0 696 -

Miscellaneous Store Retailers 12,172 1,065 0 0 108 13,345 55,000 -41,655 -

Florists 908 79 - - 12 999 0 999 -

Office Supplies, Stationery & Gifts 2,149 188 - - 96 2,434 0 2,434 -

Used Merchandise Stores 2,304 202 - - - 2,505 25,000 -22,495 -

Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers 6,812 596 - - - 7,408 30,000 -22,592 -

Food Service & Drinking Places 45,935 4,019 5,553 4,790 3,821 64,118 11,200 52,918 38,500

Full-Service Restaurants 15,741 1,377 1,786 1,825 969 21,698 0 21,698 18,000

Limited-Service Eating Places 23,299 2,039 3,518 2,493 2,852 34,201 11,200 23,001 12,000

Special Food Services 5,386 471 - - - 5,858 0 5,858 6,000

Drinking Places 1,508 132 250 472 0 2,362 0 2,362 2,500

TOTAL 168,540 14,746 6,229 5,457 8,946 203,918 91,700 112,218 120,000

SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group, Claritas, Inc.

Summary Matrix

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UNAVE SITE RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Exhibit 16

Summary of Retail Leakage

Leakage Factor

Drinking Places 2,362

Special Food Svcs 5,858

Ltd-Service Eating Places 23,001

Full-Services Restaurants 21,698

Other Misc. (22,592)

Used Merchandise Stores (22,495)Office Supplies,

Stationery & Gifts 2,434

Florists 999

Book & Music Stores 696Sporting Goods,

Hobbies, Musical Insts 2,032Jewelry, Luggage &

Leather Goods 262

Shoe Stores (1,592)

Clothing Stores (5,127)

Health & Personal Care 12,129Beer, Wine &

Liquor Stores 4,028

Specialty Food Stores 6,984

Grocery Stores 46,691

Lawn & Garden Equipmt 2,204

Bldg Materials & Supply 28,228

Electronics & Appliance (2,120)

Home Furnishing Stores 2,986

Furniture Stores 3,555

SOURCE: Claritas, Inc.

2,362

5,858

23,001

21,698

(22,592)

(22,495)

2,434

999

696

2,032

262

(1,592)

(5,127)

12,129

4,028

6,984

46,691

2,204

28,228

(2,120)

2,986

3,555

(30,000) (20,000) (10,000) 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

Drinking Places

Special Food Svcs

Ltd-Service Eating Places

Full-Services Restaurants

Other Misc.

Used Merchandise Stores

Office Supplies, Stationery & Gifts

Florists

Book & Music Stores

Sporting Goods, Hobbies, Musical Insts

Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods

Shoe Stores

Clothing Stores

Health & Personal Care

Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores

Specialty Food Stores

Grocery Stores

Lawn & Garden Equipmt

Bldg Materials & Supply

Electronics & Appliance

Home Furnishing Stores

Furniture Stores

Estimated Retail Square Feet Leaking Trade Area Today - Subject Site Potential

Demand Currently Being Met in Local Trade Area

Demand Currently Leaving the Local Trade Area

Retail Leakage

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UNAVE SITE RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Exhibit 17

Competing Retail Centers Outside of Trade Area Receiving Leakage

SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group though local stakeholder and resident interviews.

Edgewood Retail District 600,000 SF built in 2005 Features: Kroger, Target,

Lowe's, Best Buy, Barnes & Noble, Bed, Bath, & Beyond,

Ross, Office Depot and approximately 57,000sf of small shops. Also has condominiums

and adjacent townhomes, apartments, and senior

housing.

Main destination, particularly for the more affluent HHs. Variety of shops, quality environment. Parking congestion and traffic

on Moreland an issue.

Village Creek Shopping Plaza & Ripplewater Commons

A 50,000 SF Kroger (Kroger owned), plus approximately

20,000 SF of shadow anchored space. Tenants include Burger

King, Payless Shoes, Chase bank, AmericanDeli, Pizza Hut, metroPCS, a nail salon, barber, cleaners, and Chinese carry-out

rest.

Cleveland Avenue Core Kroger, CVS, Walgreens, Family Dollar, Big Lots, Athletes Foot, Rainbow, Dollar Tree, planned

Walmart Supercenter

Cascade Citi Center A 110,000 SF center with outparcels anchored by a 76,500 SF Kroger. Also

features a Marshalls, Athlete's Foot, AmericanDeli, and a

cleaners.

Retail Competition

4/30/2014

RW VENTURES

UNAVE SITE RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Exhibit 18

Potential Development Site Plan

SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group, Google Earth.

This program leaves approximately 12 acres including

most of the unique remaining structure on the site for

community/cultural enhancing uses.

There is potential to leverage the retail demand for grocery and or

specialty food, foregoing the conventional tenant/operators, and attempt to create a unique

farmers market or co-op experience. Such an innovative

concept would benefit from placement within an adaptive re-

use of the existing structure. More on this on the following exhibit.

A key component of the site is the future connection to the BeltLine. We believe the

market will require the retail component to be in a fairly typical surface parked suburban format, however if possible connections and potential

dual entrances should be planned for the grocery and limited-service restaurants on to

the BeltLine. Perhaps the addition of rear patio spaces off the restaurants adjacent to the

BeltLine.

We estimate the 120,000 SF of supportable retail will take up 12 acres of the site. Without either hard corner (on Metropolitan or I-75/85) we recommend the retail component be placed at the mid point of the site with primary ingress/egress from the existing signalized

intersection at McDaniel Street. With challenged market economics the development will likely need to take on a

fairly typical suburban format.

xxxxx

One of the greatest barriers to enticing private development to build conventional retail on the site will be the adjacent

unsightly uses across University Avenue and in the approach off I-75/85. Additionally the parcels between the subject site

and I-75/85 represent a prime opportunity to drastically increase the subject site's visibility through signage. We recommended targeted acquisition of both when feasible.

***A Key Note About Grocery Anchored Centers Retail sales are driven by patron traffic to the center.

With less than ideal traffic counts along University Avenue an anchor tenant capable of drawing in patrons is an important component of capturing this traffic. In

the above example the grocery store is the anchor and will be the primary draw for patron traffic to the

development. Grocery stores understand they are the anchors/drivers and as such (along with their larger

footprint) get the lowest lease rates resulting in very little owner profit margin on their space. Given this, it is

critical that any grocery store (loss leader anchor) be accompanied with a minimum of 20,000 SF of small

shop space in which for the owner to make their profit margin on.

Site Layout

4/30/2014

RW VENTURES

UNAVE SITE RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Exhibit 19

Market Concept

SOURCE: Noell Consulting Group

There is potential that the grocery store demand could be met in a non-traditional layout such as an open or partially open air market and/or regional indoor farmers market (such as DeKalb

Farmer's Market). The challenge however to such a non-traditional layout is the lack of operators for such in the Atlanta

market. Examples exist for temporary or weekend pop-up outdoor market operators, but only two operators exist for more permanent, full-time concepts - the State and DeKalb Farmer's Market. Getting either of these operators on this site is unlikely given their existing facilities and DeKalb's planned expansion.

Market Concept

4/30/2014

Annie E. Casey Foundation

Strategic Development Scenarios for University Avenue Site

Appendix to Project Overview

Appendix B: Public Forum Summary Memo

352 University Avenue

Public Forum on Market Study, January 23, 2014

Hosted by the Annie E. Casey Foundation Atlanta Civic Site

Contact:

Moki Macías

404-222-3675

Photos by Sweet Candor Captures & Design by Alexa Stephens

• 67 people attended

• Representing the communities of Pittsburgh, Adair

Park, Capitol View Manor, Capitol View, Peoplestown,

Mechanicsville, West End, and others citywide

• Presentation by market study planning team including

RW Ventures LLC, Mass Economics, Stoss Landscape

Urbanism, and Tunnel-Spangler-Walsh & Associates

WHO WAS THERE

PUBLIC COMMENT ON: SUGGESTIONS FOR IMMEDIATE SITE IMPROVEMENTS AND USES

1. Sidewalks

2. Lighting (on street and site)

3. Garbage cans

4. Acquire or work to clean up

neighboring lots

5. Public safety

6. Bus stops, shelters

Most frequently cited suggestions (University Avenue Corridor)

University Avenue Corridor

• Address I-75 South off Ramp & accommodate additional traffic

Site Improvement

• Fence clearing & improvements

• Knock down last building

Interim Uses

•Farmers Market; Food Truck Park; Open air/Flea market

•Events & Festivals; Drive-in theater, summer movie series,

additional traffic

• Benches

• Code enforcement

• Community improvements

• Emergency call box

• University Ave. could become the boulevard of all boulevards

• Weekly cleanups

• Welcoming signage pointing to surrounding neighborhoods

• Knock down last building

• Urban landscaping

• Cover “The Mad Society” Playboy graffiti, replace with positive mural

• Remove asphalt where possible and plant grass to reduce storm water run-off

theater, summer movie series, “Drifting” Park

•BeltLine: bike rental store, parking, other involvement

•Schools/New charter

•Hoop greenhouses/raised-bed farming; The Plant - Chicago's vertical farm & food business incubator

•Increase citizen activity beginning with kids; youth outreach/after school programs

•Jobs

•Open space up for art events from local organizations (Living walls/WonderRoot); Travelling shows

•Public Art; Performing Arts & Wellness/Holistic Facility

•Progressive and green; Plant cypress trees or tall trees to block unsightly sections

•Sports: Soccer field; use building to teach yoga

Trade-Offs

Trade-offs: What should be the highest priority in

PUBLIC COMMENT ON: TRADE-OFFS

1312

11

9

6

4 43 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2

Trade-offs: What should be the highest priority in attracting economic development to the site?

Trade-Offs

1. Job Creation

2. Positive Externalities

3. Job accessibility

4. Neighborhood Integration

5. Negative Externalities

MOST CITED PRIORITIES “Other things will

follow job

creation”

“If it doesn’t

benefit residents

there is no point.“

PUBLIC COMMENT ON:TRADE-OFF PRIORITIES

PRIORITY

TRADE- OFFPUBLIC COMMENTS

Positive Externalities

Catalyze broader transformation, negotiated community benefits,

bring people into area, involve communities outside of NPU-V

Job Accessibility

Include training & jobs for youth, % jobs reserved for neighborhood

residents, lower skilled workers, staging for moraleJob Accessibility residents, lower skilled workers, staging for morale

Neighborhood

Integration

Feeder opportunity for neighborhood, foster diversity, compatibility

(pride, character, design, history), neighborhood interact

Negative Externalities Displacement of residents/housing pressure, seniors vulnerable

Job Quality Benefits, opportunity to grow

Utilization of Site

Assets

BeltLine, BeltLine TAD, airport, scale to fit many different uses

including retail

Time to Development Can develop over time, flexibility, want to do a piece soon

Compatibility with Site

Constraints

Site is a destination (not very accessible) - need something to draw

people to neighborhood

Compatibility with

Zoning/Regulations Obvious pros and cons, this trade-off is null

Participant Addition:

Sustainability

Sustainability of job source and industry (industry that will last and

grow), need new economy to create jobs

Participant Addition:

Voice of community

Empower residents, need models created by and for us (historically

black communities/"hood" models), include current and future

residents, tap current skill base

Participant Addition:

Youth & Education Create talent to attract jobs, youth activities vs. jobs

PUBLIC COMMENT ON: POSSIBLE USES

Arts & Entertainment

•Local artists/Art gallery/Music industry

•Film industry/sound stages/"Hollywood East"

•Amusement park

•Casino

•Atlanta’s Disneyland

•Gambling

Retail Businesses

•Grocery/clean/walkable/give back to community/quality/Walmart/Public/Kroger

•24/hr. spa

•Conference center

•Daycare

•Retail can be secondary use

•Street Vendors

•Pharmacy

•Screen gems: Home Depot, coffee shops

Food-related Businesses

•Farmer’s Market/on-site grown produce

•Lettuce farm/LettuceWorks

•Tie in to local food movement

•Connect to Beltline farm

•Food market/curb market

•Food trucks/health foods

•Hydroponics idea with mixed use

•Hybrid food models – ex. – Whole Foods last geared towards the community

•Community kitchen

•Urban agriculture

Training

•6-8 month vocational training (clerical, trucking, etc.)•Screen gems: Home Depot, coffee shops

Logistics Businesses

•Distribution center – ex. Amazon, ebaywarehouse

•Fed Ex or UPS

Sports/Recreation

• Bike park shop bike repair, bike rental open belt line, rest stop with bikes

•Recreation: Skateboard park, go cart park, paint ball, sports

Housing

•Residential components

•Residential healthcare/assisted living

Social/Community

•Community meeting place

•Wellness education tied to food

•Senior center

trucking, etc.)

•Atlanta Technical, Atlanta Metro

•AWDA – train jobs

•Beauty/barber (market demand), suppliers, small business support

•Collaborative around skills development (Community colleges, working farms etc.)

•Training center

General Business

•Incubators (technology start-ups, re-use)

•Economic incubator for resident small businesses

•Shared space scenarios

•Paint recycling business

•Medical marijuana

HEAVY INDUSTRIAL USES

BUSINESSES/BUSINESS TYPES

� Trucks

� Manufacturing

� Metal Recycling

� Heavy Traffic

� Major Construction

with ground breaking

PUBLIC COMMENT ON: WHAT WE DON’T WANT

� Walmart

� Atlantic

Station

� Package Store

� Family Dollar

� Car Dealership

� Recycling

MARGINALIZATION

� Fences

� Isolation

� Displacement

of residents

� Developments

that create

public safety

issues

POSSIBLE MODELS

Local

Atlantic Station

Edgewood

Stonecrest Mall

Glenwood Park

North Ave @ Glen Iris

National/International

Shinola, Inc in Detroit

Manchester Bidwell in Philadelphia

Burberry Lanet Park in London

Market Creek Plaza in San Diego

PUBLIC COMMENT ON: POSSIBLE MODELS

North Ave @ Glen Iris

East Lake

Boulevard

Camp Creek/ATL Airport

Perry Homes/ Westview

Little 5 Points

Old 4th Ward

Castleberry Hill

Bike Movement in Atlanta

Additional insights from

the group:

• Mixed-use doesn’t always have

to include/focus on housing

• Bike movement in the metro

area

• Publix West End highlighted as a

model not to follow (closed

because not enough customers)

COMMUNITY CONTEXT

Grocery stores might

not create jobs but they are a need in community

USE THE SITE TO HELP CLEAN UP THE AREA.

Housing problem

needs to be solved before anything else can succeed

Too many vacant houses

WHAT IS THE

NORTH STAR TO HELP SPUR CHANGE IN

NEIGHBORHOOD?

Not enough people living

in the neighborhood

People do NEIGHBORHOOD IMAGE

Use site to help clean

COMMUNITY CONTEXTPUBLIC COMMENT ON: COMMUNITY CONTEXT

People do not have

trans-portation

NEIGHBORHOOD IMAGE IS A FACTOR. SOMETHING IS NEEDED TO TURN IT AROUND.

help clean up area and BeltLine to

attract people

Jobs not enough to kick start

neighborhood

Crime scares

business away

University Avenue as a whole needs

updating, sidewalks, clean-up

Need to upgrade people’s homes

CATER TO PEOPLE ALREADY HERE AND ATTRACT NEW

PEOPLE.

IF PEOPLE SEE IMPROVEMENT

IN NEIGHBORHOOD, WILL

WANT TO COME—

CHICKEN & EGG PROBLEM

Annie E. Casey Foundation

Strategic Development Scenarios for University Avenue Site

Appendix to Project Overview

Appendix C: Summary of Project Interviews and Stakeholder Input

Appendix C

Summary of Completed Interviews and Key Stakeholder Input

First Name Last Name Organization

Cecelia Georgia Food Oasis

Seham Abdulahad City of Atlanta Watershed

John Ahmann Atlanta Committee for Progress

Mike Alexander Atlanta Regional Commission

Kris Bagwell ScreenGems

Mike Barcik Southface Energy Institute

Dillon Baynes Columbia Residential/Ventures

* Juanita Blount-Clarke Community economic development consultant

Akesha Branch Aarons Amphitheater/Live Nation

Chris Carter Vantage Realty Partners

Jason Carter GA senate

Lowell Chambers City of Atlanta Watershed

Richard Dagenhart Georgia Tech

* Elke Davidson Davidson Consulting

Doug Dean Summerhill Neighborhood, Inc.

* Derrick Duckworth Adair Park resident, business owner

David Egetter US EPA Region 4

Donna Ennis GA Tech Minority Business Ctr (GA Tech incubator)

Alan Fay Freeside Atlanta

Steve Foster GA Power

* Grace Fricks ACE - CFDI

Larry Gellerstedt Cousins Properties

Mike Gerber former head of ARCHE (university collaborative)

Marisa Ghani Atlanta Regional Commission

Greg Giornelli Purpose Built Communities

* Ryan Gravel Perkins + Will; former Capitol View Manor resident

* Nancey Green Leigh Georgia Tech

* Lee Harrop Atlanta BeltLine

Dustin Heizer AMEC

* LaShawn Hoffman Pittsburgh Community Improvement Association

Derrick Holland Trinity Group

David Hubert Hubert Title Company

* Natallie Keiser The Center for Working Families, Inc.

Eloisa Klementich Startup Atlanta

Kwabena Knromo Atlanta Metro Food & Farm Network

* Ray Kuniansky Columbia Residential

Glen Kurtz Atlanta Bicycle Coalition

Shelley Lamar Director of Planning at Atlanta Hartsfield International Airport

* Teri Lee City of Atlanta Planning & Community Development

Jennifer Lobsenz Wonderroot

* Ellen Macht Atlanta Wealth-Building Initiative

John Mascaritolo Clayton State supply chain program

Brian McGowan Atlanta Metro Chamber

* Denotes membership on the Kitchen Cabinet Committee 1

Appendix C

Summary of Completed Interviews and Key Stakeholder Input

First Name Last Name Organization

Zuri Murphy Grassy Bikes

Jane Nguyen syndercycles

* Dennis Pellerin REAL Development Partners

* Phillipe Pellerin REAL Development Partners

Egbert Perry Integral

Bob Pertierra Metro Chamber

Alicia Philipp Community Foundation of Atlanta

Robert Rauner Atlanta Beltline Partnership

Robert Reed Southface

Dan Reuter Atlanta Regional Commission

Ashley Rivera Atlanta Regional Commission

AJ Robinson President of Central Atlanta Progress and Atlanta Downtown

Improvement District

Paul Roeser Jones Lang LaSalle [industrial broker]

Dale Royal Atlanta Emerging Markets, Inc.

* Deborah Scott Georgia TRADE UP/Georgia STAND UP

Rebecca Serna Atlanta Bicycle Coalition

* Meaghan Shannon-Vilkovic Enterprise Community Partners

Joyce Shepard City Council

Seth Snyder snydercycles

Steven Sutton Freeside Atlanta

* Granvel Tate Invest Atlanta

Marsha Thomas Atlanta Produce Dealers Association

Alvetta Thomas President, Atlanta Technical College

Paul Thompson Atlanta State Farmers Market

Julie Todd City of Atlanta Watershed

Tene Traylor Community Foundation of Atlanta

Flor Velarde Invest Atlanta

JB Vick proposed development @ site

Andrew Walter City of Atlanta Watershed

* Columbus Ward Peoplestown Revitalization Corporation

* Janis Ware SUMMECH

* Camilla Warren US EPA Region 4

* Charles Whatley UrbanIS Consulting

Larry Wilinsky Crossroads Shopping Center

* Bobby Williams Community Ministry Church

Valarie Wilson Executive Director of Atlanta Beltline Partnership

* Tom Wyandt Office of the Mayor, Transportation

* Fred Yalouris Atlanta BeltLine Inc.

local small biz owners

Atlanta Metro College

Atlanta Technical College

neighborhood NPU leaders/residentsVarious

Various

Various

Various

* Denotes membership on the Kitchen Cabinet Committee 2