Carbon dioxide emissions and standard of living

by: Ayman Ghanam

Why I chose this topic?

My mind map pointed me towards world issues

Interested in Kyoto protocolI like the controversy of the subjectIt’s a global issue and everyone

should worry

Thesis

Do countries that produce low CO2 emissions have a low standard of living?

Hypothesis: I believe that countries that produce a lower amount of CO2 will have better standards of living then the ones that produce a high amount.

The Kyoto Protocol is an agreement made in Kyoto Japan that

postulates that CO2 emissions are very high and need to be curbed.

The agreement introduces rules to encourage countries take whatever measures are needed to cut down on their CO2 emissions

Some countries do not want to ratify it because of the negative consequences on their economies.

So far, 86 countries have ratified the Kyoto Protocol - roughly half the number that attended the Kyoto conference. The United States has said it will not ratify Kyoto.

The protocol has become legally binding in February 2005 when it was ratified by 55 countries covering at least 55% of the emissions addressed by the protocol. The 55-country benchmark had been passed some time before and the ratification of Russia made the protocol come in action by passing the 55% of the emissions threshhold.

Under Kyoto, Canada has agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 6% below 1990 levels by 2012 (Europe 8%, World 5%). This would represent a 26% reduction from projected 2012 levels. Two years ago, Canada had surpassed its 1990 levels by close to 20%.

What I wanted to do

Look at at the different factors of standard of living (variables)

Compare them to CO2 emissions See if CO2 emissions are correlated

(or not) with the standard of living

Which countries I picked

10 developed countries:

Canada U.S U.K France Hungary Australia Japan Luxembourg New Zealand Germany

10 Developing nations:

Brazil China India Mexico Saudi Arabia

Kuwait Iran Argentina Venezuela

Syria

And 10 Less Developed Countries:

Sudan Togo Uganda Cambodia Yemen Nepal Bangladesh Haiti Senegal Liberia

The variables

CO2 emissions per capitaLiteracy ratesGDP per capitaLife ExpectancyPercentage of people living below

poverty line

Graphs

1999 per capita co2 emissions

05

10152025

Country

Série1

1999 GDP per capita

05000

100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000

Country

Série1

5860496251797778797180807778796372637268

Total population life expectancy for 1999

020406080

100

Country

Total population lifeexpectancy

Graphs

As Co2 emissions increase so does the GDP per capita. But, as seen, the correlation coefficient is weak and cannot support any conclusions.

Since data is available for past CO2 emission values and GDP per capita values, I decide to graph them hoping that I will get stronger conclusions.

Analysis

The United States CO2 emissions were on the rise for the past years and their GDP kept up with it very well, stating that as more CO2 produced GDP increases. This completely goes against my hypothesis because it is stating that as CO2 emissions go up so does the standard of living.

Canada’s Graph

Analysis

Weakness in the correlation coefficient.

However there is somewhat of a trend that followed the U.S’s which again disproves my thesis.

Graph

Analysis:

The U.K’s graph was very interesting to see, it basically states that as GDP in the past went up the CO2 emissions per capita went down. This completely supports my thesis because it shows that a high standard of living can be achieved while at the same time reducing CO2 emissions.

Graph

Analysis

Germany’s graph also does the same as all of the other European nations, even though the correlation coefficient is somewhat weaker than the other graphs the trend is similar and therefore supports my thesis.

Graph

Graph

AnalysisThere seems to be almost no strong

relationship between poverty rates and how much CO2 is produced. The correlation coefficient seems to be very week and offers no strong conclusions. If data from previous years were offered there might have been a stronger correlation that could help me draw some sort of conclusion.

Graph(1999)

Analysis

Again there is no strong correlation for this data and therefore I can’t make any conclusions.

But since I was able to find data from past years I will use some countries to try to see trends over time.

Canada’s graph

Analysis

Canada’s graph shows a good relationship that can give me somewhat of a conclusion that as CO2 emissions emitted per capita rises each year so does Canada’s literacy rate. This goes against my Hypothesis, which states that if CO2 drops better aspects of standard of living will improve.

United States

Analysis

Along with Canada, the U.S continues to bring up its per capita CO2 emissions but still has a growing literacy rate as seen in the past years

United Kingdom

Germany

Analysis

For Canada and the U.S as CO2 emissions increase and so does the literacy rate

For majority of European countries as literacy rate rise CO2 emissions fall

Concluding thoughts:

Through the research that I’ve done, I have seen both cases where hypothesis was proved and disproved. When looking at GDP and it’s trends in the past years and comparing it to CO2 emissions, I found that for The United States in and Canada the more pollution that was produced on a per capita basis the higher the GDP was. This completely disproved my hypothesis. But interestingly enough when I drew graphs for European nations I found that they are lowering their CO2 per capita emissions and still bringing up their GDP and literacy rates. The graphs for the other indicators of standard of standard of living such as life expectancy and poverty rates didn’t tell me much as I couldn’t find data for them for the past years like GDP and literacy rates.

So have I answered my question? Do countries that produce low CO2 emissions have a low standard of living? And have I proved that countries that produce less CO2 will have better standards of living than the ones that do pollute a lot? Well not exactly but I found that some countries that produce low amount of CO2 per capita do have as good of a standard of living as countries like the US and Canada. But what I can tell you for sure is that polluting less means a cleaner environment and not any major harm done to a country’s standard of living, which is the main reason why I’ve done this project.

Final notes added by EFN (not by the author of this study) :

1 - The decrease of CO2 emissions in the UK and in Germany results from the replacement of coal plants by gas plants, and has nothing to do with the standard of living.

2 - The correlation between standard of living and CO2 emissions exists but only for the poorer countries and only UNDER 3 tons of CO2 per inhabitant/year. But amongst the rich countries (above a minimal GDP and above 3 tons CO2 per year), CO2 emissions do not result from GDP but from the energy production methods (nuclear electricity in France, hydro in Sweden…).