by Neil Howe and William Strauss E"

Generations are among the most powerful forces in history. Tracking their march

through time lends order -and even a measure of predictability -to long-term trends.

by Neil Howe and William Strauss

URING THE MIDDLE AGES, travelers reported an unusual

ears of a young child to make sure he remembered thatevent all his life.

Like those medieval villagers, each of us carries deeply felt as-sociations with various events in our lives. For Americans, PearlHarbor, the Kennedy and King assassinations, the Challengerexplosion, and 9/11 are burned into our consciousness; it is im-possible to forget what we were doing at the time. As we growolder, we realize that the sum total of such events has in manyways made us who we are. Exactly how they affected us is relatedto how old we were when they occurred.

E""c::>'cO~

hbr.org I July-August 2007 I Harvard Business Review 41

MANAGING FORTHE LONG TERM I BIG PICTURE I The Next 20 Years

This is what constitutes a generation:It is shaped by events or circumstancesaccording to which phase of life its mem-bers occupy at the time. ,As each gen-eration ages into the next phase -fromyouth to young adulthood to midlife toelderhood -its attitudes and behaviorsmature, producing new currents in thepublic mood. In other words, people

launched a "consciousness revolution"to demand that their war-hero elderslive up to higher moral standards.

Twenty years later u.s. campusesexperienced another surprising shift.The Wall Street journal noted in 1990,"It is college presidents, deans, andfaculties -not students -who are thezealots and chief enforcers of Political

what public events they witnessed inadolescence, and what social missionthey took on as they came of age.

Our focus as scholars has been on

understanding generational personaeand how they come together in soci-ety to create a national character thatcontinually evolves as new generationsemerge and old ones pass away. This

would be a fascinating studyeven if it were solely for the

Rather than puzzling over why 20-year-olds were self-absorbed purposes of historical un-I ' . h 1960 b b d . k h . d derstanding. But its value is

mora Izers In t e s ut are usy an rls -averse ac IE~vers to ay,.,t th th t. Wh tlar grea er an a a

one must recognize them as members of distinct genera1:ions. we have found is that gen-

erations shaped by similarearly-life experiences often

develop similar collective personaeand follow similar life trajectories. Thepatterns are strong enough to supporta measure of prediCtability. Historicalprecedent makes it possible to foreseehow the generations alive today willthink and act in decades to come.

In this article we will share somehighlights of our ongoing effort to dojust that. For businesspeople who man-age operations or sell products in theUnited States, the analysis offered herehas enormous implications for strate-gic planning, brand positioning, andmanagement of the workplace. (Morebroadly, of course, it informs discus-sions of war and peace and America'scapacity to face its most difficult chal-lenges,) For executives in other coun-tries, the analysis suggests insightsthat might also be gained in their partsof the world: the insights that comefrom seeing change through the lensof generations.

The Generational ConstellationAny society is the sum of its parts -thegenerations that coexist at that mo-ment in time. America today combinessix. (Nineteen generations have come ofage since the time of the Mayflower; inthe 1620S. See the exhibit "America as aSequence of Generations" for details.)

The GI Generation (born 1901-1924,now age 83-106) arrived after the GreatAwakening of the late nineteenth cen-

do not "belong" to their age brackets. Correctness." This batch of students,A woman of 40 today has less in com- Generation X, was born during the con-mon with 40-year-old women across sciousness revolution. The children ofthe ages than with the rest of her gener- divorce, latchkeys, and ad hoc day care,ation, which is united by memories, lan- they showed much less ideological pas-guage, habits, beliefs, and life lessons. sion than their elders and brought a new

Generations follow observable his- pragmatism to the nation's campuses.torical patterns and thus offer a very Today graying college leaders on thepowerful tool for predicting future verge of retirement continue to carrytrends. To anticipate what 40-year-olds the ideological torch, crusading for vari-will be like 20 years from now, don't ous causes in ways that often irritatelook at today's 40-year-olds; look at their younger Gen X colleagues. Mean-today's 20-year-olds. while, undergraduates are showing

People of a given age may vary quite yet another generational personality:dramatically from era to era. Recall, for The members of this rising Millennialexample, Sproul Hall at UC Berkeley Generation tend to be upbeat, team-in 1964 and the students wearing com- oriented, close to their parents, andputer punch cards that proclainled confident about their future. Unlike

"I Am a Student! Do Not Fold, Spindle, Boomers, they do not want to "teachor Mutilate!" They were mocking the the world to sing." Unlike GenXers.theyautomated treatment the university don't "just do it" -they plan ahead.was supposedly giving them. In the Rather than puzzling over why 20-years after World War II, Americans had year-olds were self-absorbed moralizersgrown used to the Silent Generation's in the 196os but are busy and risk-averseconformist college students. Now a new achievers today, one must recognizegeneration was arriving: the baby boom them as members of distinct genera-raised in the aftermath of the war. By tions. To learn why they (or any twothe end of the 1960s these confronta- generations) are different, one can looktional, megaphone-toting students had at how they were raised as children,

Neil Howe ([email protected]) and William Strauss ([email protected]) are

the authors of Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069 (1991). The

Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy (1997), and Mi//ennials Rising: The Next Great Gen-

eration (2000), among other books. and are the founding partners of LifeCourse Associates,

a publishing, speaking, and consulting company in Great Falls, Virginia. Visit hbr.org for addi-

tional analysis by the authors regarding how current generations will rise to a national crisis.

42 Harvard Business Review I July-August 2007 I hbr.org

-~tury. Zealously protected by progressive-era parents, its members enjoyed a"good kid" reputation and accountedfor the sharpest rise in school achieve-ment ever recorded. As-young adults,they were the first Miss Americas andall-American athletes. In midlife theybuilt up the postwar "affluent society,"erecting suburbs, inventing miraclevaccines, plugging missile gaps, andlaunching moon rockets. Though theydefended stable families and conven-tional mores, no generation in the his-tory of polling got along worse withits own children. They were greatly in-vested in civic life, and focused moreon actions and behavior than on valuesand beliefs. Their unprecedented gripon the presidency (1961 through 1992)began with the New Frontier, the GreatSociety, and Model Cities, but encom-

passed Vietnam, Watergate, Iran-contra,and budget deficits. As "senior citizens"(a term popularized to describe them),the GIs safeguarded their "entitlements"but had little influence over culture andvalues. Early in this century they werehonored with memorials, films, andbooks. Roughly half of those still aliveare in dependent care.

The Silent Generation (born 1925-1942, now age 65-82) grew up as theseen-but-not-heard Little Rascals andShirley Temples of the Great Depres-sion and World War II. Its memberscame of age just too late to be war he-roes and just too early to be youthfulfree spirits. Instead they became, likeJames Dean, "rebels without a cause,"part of a "lonely crowd" of risk-aversetechnicians in an era in which earlymarriage, the invisible handshake, andclimbing the career ladder seemed toguarantee success. As gray-flannel con-formists, they accepted the institutionalcivic life and conventional culture ofthe GIs until the mid-1960s, when theystopped taking their cues from thosehigher up on the age ladder and startedlooking down -following Bob Dylan'slead ("I was so much older then, I'myounger than that now"). They becameAmerica's leading civil-rights activists,

were the indulged products of postwaroptimism, Tomorrowland rationalism,and a Father Knows Best family order.Though community spirit was strongduring their youth, the older genera-tions were determined to raise youngpeople who would never follow a Hitler,a Stalin, or a Big Brother. Coming ofage, Boomers loudly proclaimed theirscorn for the secular blueprints of theirparents -institutions, civic participa-tion, and team playing -while seekinginner life, self-perfection, and deepermeaning. The notion of a melting pot,the full-time mom, the suburbs and bigauto at home, and the troops and dom-ino theory abroad all came under theirwithering criticism. During the Boom-ers' youth, crime rates, substance abuse,and sexual risk taking all surged whileacademic achievement and SAT scoresfell. The consciousness revolution cli-maxed with Vietnam War protests,the Summer of Love (1967), the Demo-cratic convention in Chicago (1968),


I

I

I

!

I

rock and rollers, antiwar leaders, femi-nists, public-interest lawyers, and men-tors for young firebrands. They wereAmerica's moms and dads during thedivorce epidemic. They rose to politicalpower after Watergate, their congres-sional behavior characterized by a pushtoward institutional complexity and avast expansion of the legal process. Todate they are the first generation neverto elect a u.s. president or to appoint achief justice of the Supreme Court. Aselders, they have focused on discussion,inclusion, and process (as with the IraqStudy Group's list of 79 recommenda-tions) but not on decisive action. Ben-efiting more than other generationshave or will from ample late-in-life pay-outs (defined-benefit pensions, retireehealth care, golden parachutes), theyhave entered retirement with a hip life-style and unprecedented affluence.

The Boom Generation (born 1943-1960, now age 47-64) began as feed-on-demand Dr. Spock babies. They

MANAGING FOR THE LONG TERM I BIG PICTURE I The Next 20 Years

America as a Sequence of Generations

A generation encompasses a series of consecutive birth years spanning roughly

the length of time needed to become an adult; its members share a location in

history and, as a consequence, exhibit distinct beliefs and behavior patterns.

Nineteen generations have lived on American soil since the Puritans came to

New England; the twentieth is just now arriving.

.The absence of a hero archetype during the mid-18DDs is the one exception we have observed in a cycle that extendsback through American and Anglo-American history to the Renaissance. Exceptions like this, which we suspect maybe more frequent in other modern societies (from Europe to China), demonstrate that the course of history is neverpredetermined. In The Fourth Turning we speculate on why the cycle sometimes misses a beat. In the U.S. case,the timing and extreme severity of the Civil War apparently prevented the Progressive Generation from assuming anexpanded civic role. Public institutions remained mostly in the hands of the Gilded Generation until nearly the end of

the century.


Xers are adopting a highly protectivestyle of nurturing this generation, buthalf of its babies will have Millennialparents. It is still too early to set theirfirst birth year, which will become clearin time.

Woodstock (1969), and Kent State(1970). In the 1970S Boomer women be-gan challenging the glass ceiling in theworkplace. Both genders designatedthemselves the arbiters of the nation'svalues, crowding into fields like teach-

ing, religion, journalism, law, marketing,and the arts. During the 1980s manyBoomers refashioned themselves asyuppie individualists in an era of de-regulation, tax cuts, and entrepreneur-ship. During the 1990S they trumpeteda "culture war," touted a divisive "poli-tics of meaning," and waged scorched-earth political battles between "red"and "blue" zones. As parents, they havedeveloped very close individual rela-tionships with their children, to thepoint of hovering. From first birth co-hort to last, their generation has suf-fered declining economic prosperity.

Generation X (born 1961-1981, nowage 26-46) grew up in an era of failingschools and marriages, when the col-lective welfare of children sank to thebottom of the nation's priorities, anddozens offiIms portrayed children whowere literally demons or throwawaysurvivalists. Xers learned early on todistrust institutions, starting with thefamily, as the adult world was rockedby the sexual revolution, the rise indivorce, and an R-rated popular cul-ture. With their mothers entering theworkplace before child care was widelyavailable, many endured a latchkeychildhood. By the mid-1980s MTV, hip-hop, and a surging interest in businessand military careers had marked a newand hardening pragmatism in theirmood. Surveys (and pop culture)pointed to greater risk taking amongthe young. Over the next decade crimeand teen pregnancy rates soared. M-ter navigating a sexual battlegroundof AIDS and blighted courtship ritualsas young adults, Xers have dated cau-tiously and married late. Many of themhave begun to construct the strongfamilies that they missed in childhood.In jobs they prefer free agency over cor-porate loyalty, with three in five sayingthey someday "want to be my own boss."

Prophet, Nomad, Hero, ArtistSociety undergoes change in large partbecause the generations within it waxand wane, arrive and depart. But shiftsalso occur because, as even the snap-shot descriptions above make clear,the people who compose a generationchange as they age. To predict how anygiven generation will mature, we canlook at the experiences of previousgenerations born under similar circum-stances. In particular, it's useful to con-sider generations with comparable "agelocations" relative to key eras. (See theexhibit "The Generational Diagonal.")

It matters very much to the makeupof a generation whether it comes ofage during or after a period of nationalcrisis, or during or after a period of cul-tural renewal or awakening. We like tolabel these four major kinds of genera-tions with the shorthand of archetypes:prophet, nomad, hero, and artist. Thegenerations of each archetype sharenot only a similar age location in his-tory, but also similar attitudes towardfamily, culture and values, risk, andcivic engagement. As each archetypeages, its persona undergoes profoundand characteristic changes.

Prophet generations are born af-ter a great war or other crisis, duringa time of rejuvenated community lifeand consensus around a new societalorder. Prophets grow up as increasinglyindulged children, come of age as thenarcissistic young crusaders of a spiri-tual awakening, cultivate principles asmoralistic midlifers, and emerge as wiseelders guiding another historical crisis.Because of their location in history,such generations tend to be remem-bered for their coming-of-age passionand their principled elder stewardship.Their primary endowments relate tovision, values, and religion.


They are already the greatest entrepre-neurial generation in u.s. history; theirhigh-tech savvy and marketplace re-silience have helped America prosperin the era of globalization. Of all thegenerations born in the twentieth cen-tury, Gen X includes the largest shareof immigrants. Xers have made barelyany impression in civic life; they be-lieve that volunteering or helping peo-ple one-on-one is more efficacious thanvoting or working to change laws.

The Millennial Generation (born 1982to roughly 2005, now age 25 or younger)arrived after the consciousness revolu-tion, when "Baby on Board" first beganto appear in minivan windows. As abor-tion and divorce rates ebbed, popularculture began recasting babies as spe-cial and stigmatizing hands-off parentalstyles. Hollywood replaced cinematicdemons with adorable children who in-spired adults to become better people.The fertility rate rebounded, followingthe baby bust of Generation X, and sur-veys showed a climb in the percentageof children who were "wanted." Childabuse and child safety were hot topicsthrough the 198os, while books preach-ing family values became best sellers.By the mid-1990S politicians were defin-ing adult issues (from tax cuts to Inter-net access) in terms of their effects onchildren. Educators spoke of standards,cooperative learning, and "no child leftbehind." Millennials as a generationhave seen steady decreases in high-risk behaviors. As the oldest of themgraduate into the workplace, recordnumbers are gravitating toward largeinstitutions and government agencies,

seeking teamwork, protection againstrisk, and solid work-life balance. Theirculture is becoming less edgy, witha new focus on upbeat messages andbig brands, and more conventional,with a resurgence of oldies and remakes.Their close relationships with their par-ents and extended families are carryingover into their young adult lives.

The Homeland Generation (bornroughly 2005-2025) is now beginningto arrive in America's nurseries. Gen


The Generational Diagonal

other. Track each generation's mind-set and behaviors

across these phases and eras. What you get is a pan-

oramic view of an evolving societal mood. As one era

fades into the next, you can see how and why that mood

changes. It's a simple matter of generational aging.

The generational diagonal can help provide new

answers to historical questions, such as why the Great

Awakening and the American Revolution happened

when they did, and why the Gilded Era followed the

Civil War. It can also explain why SAT scores fell through

the 1970s, and why attitudes toward having and raising

children became much more positive in the early 1980s.

Perhaps most important, it provides a powerful tool for

predicting what to expect from each phase of life -and

from society as a whole -in the decades to come.

Generations are formed by the way historical events and

moods shape their members' lives -and by the fact that

these events and moods affect people very differently

depending on the phase of life they occupy at the time.

Consider the era of the Great Depression and World

War II. For the children of that time (the Silent Genera-

tion), its economic and geopolitical crises led to tight adult

protection. For young adults (Gis). they meant challenge,

teamwork, trial, and sacrifice. For those in midlife (Lost).

they imposed a new sense of responsibility and a need

for practical leadership. For elders (Missionaries), they

offered an opportunity to champion long-held visions and

establish a legacy.

This is the "generational diagonal." Chart each phase

of life along one axis and each historical era along the

:: 20057-20257 ~

: (CRISIS)

:: :Morning in America ~ :

Culture wars ~ Post-9/11 America

Long Boom ~

Y2K ::

ERA

(CRISIS) (AWAKENING)

KEYEVENTS

Women's suffrage

World War I

Roaring Twenties

Scopes trial

Crash of '29

New Deal

Pearl Harbor

D-day

McCarthyismLevittown

Affluent society

Little Rock

Kent State

Woodstock

WatergateTax revolt

Silent

(artist)

empathic

enteringELDERHOOD

age 63-83

Progressive(artist)

empathic

Silent

(artist)

indecisive

enteringMIDLIFE

age 42-62

..

..

: Boom:: (prophet) ~..: wise::.~ .

;:...:::::::::::::::::..: Generation X :

: (nomad): pragmatic ~

..

enteringYOUNGADULTHOOD

age 21-41

Boom

(~)rophet)

visionary

/

...Millennia! ~

(hero) ~

heroic ~

~

..~ Homeland;

: (artist) ~: suffocated ~

enteringYOUTHage 0-20

Silent

(artist)

suffocated

Boom

(prophet)

indulged


Boom

(prophet)

moralistic

Dials, and Homelanders who play thecentral roles in shaping tomorrow's so-cial mood.

pathic post-awakening elders. Becauseof their location in history, such genera-tions tend to be remembered for theirquiet years of rising adulthood andtheir midlife years of flexible, consensus-building leadership. Their primary en-dowments relate to pluralism, expertise,and due process.

We've said that historical eventsand circumstances shape generations.It seems clear that the reverse is alsotrue, giving rise to a rhythm in his-tory itself. Our four archetypes haverecurred in the same order, with onlyone exception, throughout Americanhistory, and we have observed this gen-eral pattern in many other societiesaround the world as well. What may atfirst seem to be amazing coincidenceturns out to be simply the reaction ofeach generation to what it perceivesas the excesses of its elders. ThusBoomers in middle age (a prophet gen-eration, focused on values, individual-ism, and inner life) have been raising

Nomad generations are born dur-ing a cultural renewal, a time of socialideals and spiritual agendas, whenyouth-fired attacks break out againstthe established institutional order. Theygrow up as underprotected children,come of age as the alienated youngadults of a post-awakening world, mel-low into pragmatic midlife leadersduring a crisis, and age into tough post-crisis elders. Because of their locationin history, such generations tend to beremembered for their rising-adult yearsof hell-raising and their midlife yearsof get-it-done leadership. Their primaryendowments relate to liberty, survival,and honor.

Hero generations are born after aspiritual awakening, during a time ofindividual pragmatism, self-reliance,laissez-faire, and national (or sectionalor ethnic) chauvinism. Heroes growup as increasingly protected children,come of age as the valiant young teamworkers of a crisis, demonstrate hubris

The Elderhood of BoomersIn 2006 the media were filled withstories about Boomers reaching theirsixties, from Presidents Bush and Clin-ton to the characters on the televisionseries Thtenty Good Years. Boomersapproached old age with a splash, de-termined to transform elderhood insome meaningful way. Glimpses of thiscan be caught in the "conscious aging"movement, in which older Boomersare constructing a new social ethic ofdecline and death, much as they didwith sex and procreation in their youth.Whereas their youthful ethos stemmedfrom self-indulgence, their elder ethoswill hinge on self-denial. To be sure,much of it will be symbolic only: Just asaging GIs glorified national consump-tion but personally maintained theirfrugal habits, aging Boomers will glo-rify the virtues of self-denial but per-sonally maintain (to the extent theirincomes allow) their creature-comfort

indulgence.Deep into old age, Boomers will take

pride in continuing to dominate Amer-ica's culture, religion, and values. Expe-riencing a physical decline, they willelevate the soul over the body. Grayingfeminists, environmentalists, human-ists, and evangelicals will impart a newpassion to old enthusiasms as they rail

against shopping malls, globalization,bureaucracies, pop culture, and all theother false idols of the modern world."Many Boomers, after disengaging fromthe world of work, will become reli-gious or ideological missionaries. Elderpriests, ministers, rabbis, and imamswill sharpen their sermonizing aboutgood and evil and demand that civicritual be infused with a sense of the sa-cred. As Gen Xers increasingly take overcultural institutions, Boomers' resis-tance to the Gen X lifestyle will becomemore pronounced. Convinced that theirown cultural values are superior, theywill focus on shaping the outlook of

Deep into old age, Boomers will take pride in continuinglto dominate America's culture, religion, and values.Experiencing a physical decline, they will elevate the sOIJIover the body.

Millennial children (a hero generation,focused on actions, community, andinstitutional life). Archetypes createopposing archetypes. In other words,your generation isn't like the genera-tion that shaped you. It's like the gen-eration that shaped the generation that

shaped you.What does all this mean about the

customers and employees who aJ:e thelifeblood of your business? Let's take aclose look at the aging of the four gen-erations of Americans whose presencewill still be vital 20 years from now. Thelast of the GIs will have passed on, andthe Silents will have entered late elder-hood, with its increasing dependenceand disengagement from public life.It will be Boomers, Gen Xers, Millen-

as energetic midlifers, and emerge aspowerful elders beset by another spiri-tual awakening. Because of their loca-tion in history, such generations tendto be remembered for their collectivecoming-of-age triumphs and for theirhubristic elder achievements. Their pri-mary endowments relate to community,affluence, and technology.

Artist generations are born during agreat war or other crisis, a time whenworldly perils boil off the complexity oflife, and public consensus, aggressive in-stitutions, and personal sacrifice prevail.Artists grow up as overprotected chil-dren, come of age as the sensitive youngadults of a post-crisis world, break freeas indecisive midlife leaders during aspiritual awakening, and age into em-



household incomes was relatively nar-row, but during their adulthood it hasbroadened substantially under therubrics of individuality, markets, andchoice. In old age Boomers will argueheatedly over this trend. The marketfor high-end goods and services will re-main strong (this generation includesan unprecedented number of centimil-lionaires), but the middle and low-endmarkets will suffer.

In the community and politics. El-der Boomers will be closer physically,financially, and attitudinally to theirgrown children than their own parentswere to them. Many aging Boomerswill remain at the head of multi genera-tional households. They will urge youngpeople to serve community ahead ofself -shaping the young to be quiteunlike themselves. Having spread avocabulary of self-esteem and self-lovethroughout today's schools and media,some Boomers will criticize young peo-ple for repeating it back to them.

Many elder Boomers will be frus-trated as they lose influence in politics,unsure whether their Gen X succes-sors are up to the task. They will not,however, think of themselves as "seniorcitizens" or cling to political powerdeep into their old age. Social Securitywas a generational bond for GIs and aplay-by-the-rules annuity for Silents. Tomaintain the same level of dependenceon the young, Boomers would have towage political war on their Millennialchildren -something they will not do.(Nor could they win if they did.) As theybecome increasingly less able to turnfiscal benefits in their direction, the"Money can't buy me love" generationwill once again focus its energy on cul-ture and values.

Millennials. They will try to impressyounger Americans more by who theyare than by what they do -more bytheir passions than by their accomplish-ments. They will remain dominant con-sumers of culture -theater, art galler-ies, even rock concerts -though muchof their Woodstock and Earth Day mes-sage will sound remote and preachy toyounger generations. "Cultural tourism"and wilderness outings will gray withBoomers, as they continue to overnightat monasteries, visit wineries, explorebiodiverse beaches, and gaze on pris-tine mountains.

Elder Boomers will seek products,services, and living environments thatexpress their convictions. Some will es-chew high-tech medicine in favor ofho-listic self-care, natural foods, and mind-body healing techniques. As the oldestof them reach the age where they needmore medical care, some hospitals areopening wings that feature naturalfoods, alternative medicine, and spiri-tual counseling. However frail theymay become, Boomers will want to bein control of their surroundings. The

Houses, cars, and computers will be produced for andadvertised to individual consumers. Older generationswill look back wistfully to a time when products (and jobs)came in standard shapes and sizes.

GI-era surge in planned-care communi-ties, already slowing among Silent re-tirees, will be thrown into reverse. Un-like elderly GIs, who sought out tightpeer communities far from their fami-lies (such as Sun City, Arizona), elderlyBoomers will avoid large-scale pre-planned communities and keep theirfamilies around them. Experts havealready identified "naturally occurringretirement communities,"where Boom-ers are simply aging in place.

In the workplace and the economy.

As Boomers reach the traditional retire-ment age, many will remain involvedin the working world. The very word

The Midlife of Generation XersGen Xers will retain their reputationfor alienation and disaffection as theyenter their fifties -meaning that themidlife age bracket of American soci-ety will no longer be associated withmoral authority but, rather, with tough-ness, grittiness, and practicality. More

lifestyle. To younger generations in theworkplace, old Boomers will appearhighly eccentric. Their prized other-worldliness will strike younger workersas incompetence, and what they see asethical perfectionism will sometimeslook to the young like hypocrisy. How-ever much the rising generations mayrespect Boomers for their vision andvalues, they may also dismiss them asinsufficiently plugged in.

Retiring Boomers will experiencenot only a disappointing growth inwealth, on average, but also a widen-ing inequality in its distribution. Whenthey were growing up, the range of


"retirement" will acquire negative con-notations of indolence and mindlessconsumption. The new goal for "seri-ous" elders will be not to retire but toreplenish or reflect -if not simplyto keep working.

By forging an antiretirement ethic,Boomers will in part be making a vir-tue out of necessity: This generation(especially its later-born members) hasexperienced a much slower growthin income than the Silent, and todayfaces an insurmountable lag in averagehousehold net worth. Boomers haveneither saved as much nor been as wellinsured by their employers -and theyexpect that public programs like SocialSecurity and Medicare will be cut owingto the size of their generation. But laterretirement will also reflect the Boomermind-set. Even affluent Boomers maypursue new careers late in life, oftenin high-prestige but low-paying (or un-paid) emeritus positions. Rather thanaging as institutional fixtures, elderBoomers will try to become consultantsand independent contractors, workingremotely to maintain a self-sufficient

with tales of wealthy celebrities, middle-aged workers will generally be seen asmodest-wage job hoppers who retainthe flexibility to change life directionsin a snap. Throughout the economythey will be doing the jobs that othersdon't want to do.

In the community and politics. Gen

Xers in midlife will set about fortifyingtheir social environment. As many ofthem confront financial difficulties, theywill take pride in their ability to "havea life" and to wall off their faD1ilies fromeconomic turnloil. Their divorce ratewill be well below that of Boomers andSilents at the same age. They will be

Even as mature workers, Gen Xers willwant to be free agents -negotiatingtheir own deals, seeking incentives rang-ing from commissions to options, andswitching employers at a moment'snotice. Some of them will be runninglarge corporations as hired guns. Oth-ers, after years of gigs and assignments,will at last realize they will never havea"career."

Top Xer managers will excel at mak-ing quick decisions, streamlining themiddle ranks, and downsizing bureau-cracy. Top Xer executives, now keyplayers in decentralized flat organiza-tions, will take creative risks and exploit

Mature Gen X entrepreneurs will probe every corner of themarketplace in search of unrealized gain, as they did in theiryouth. Companies will be created, dissolved, or reorganized

overnight.

opportunities on their own. As consum-ers and parents on the demand side andentrepreneurs and CEOs on the supplyside, Xers will seek new ways of remov-ing professional middlemen (lawyers,accountants, brokers, advisers) frombusiness transactions. Those along thechain who don't add essential valuemay be squeezed out. Sectors that arecurrently sheltered from market forces -

such as agriculture, health care, educa-tion, and public works -may find theirlong-held positions under attack.

Mature Gen X entrepreneurs willprobe every comer of the marketplacein search of unrealized gain, as theydid in their youth. Companies will becreated, dissolved, or reorganized over-night. But in personal finances this gen-eration will fare even worse than Boom-ers did in the 1990s. Many Gen Xers willfind their incomes disappointing, theirfringe benefits pared down, and theirpublic safety nets fraying. A few will bewildly successful; a larger number willbe poor or near poor; most will be do-ing all right but losing ground. Whilethe media (as ever) will be saturated

than people of other generations, CenXers will deflect a generational identity,thinking of themselves as not Boom-ers and not Millennials rather than asGeneration X.

Having had so many choices andtaken so many risks in their youth, theywill feel like Generation Exhausted.For their Silent parents, a midlife crisismeant breaking out of early confor-mity and taking more risks with mar-riage and career. But Xers enteringmidlife will veer in the opposite direc-tion, searching for greater security intheir families and jobs and for a steadyanchor in their communities.

Many will continue to flock toSurvivor-style self-testing and TexasHold 'Em-style risk-taking, but suchpursuits will seem less fresh to othergenerations, and even to Cen Xers them-selves. The high-stakes gambles manyof them took with their stray cash asyoung adults (in lotteries, casinos, stockoptions, and derivative markets) willincreasingly be stigmatized in the eyesof younger people. As the Cen X popculture elite loses influence, celebritieswho persist in its ways will be chastisedby wholesome Millennial youths.

As they fill the ranks of midlife con-sumers, Cen Xers will continue to evalu-ate products in terms of their efficiency,convenience, and mass customization.Houses, cars, and computers will beproduced for and advertised to indi-vidual consumers. Older generationswill look back wistfully to a time whenproducts (and jobs) came in standardshapes and sizes.


In a Gen X-dominated economy therewill be no shelter from the gale windsof the open marketplace. The resultswill be both positive and negative, forthis generation and for others.

As business leaders, Gen Xers willbe more effective at pushing efficiencyand innovation than any other genera-tion in memory. Their market orienta-tion, which has already produced re-markable productivity gains, will reachmaximum impact as they enter midlife.

extremely protective of their offspring;large numbers will spend hard-earnedmoney and may relocate to ensure thequality of their children's schools andthe safety of their daily lives. As theirchildren reach college age, Gen Xerswill apply to every facet of higher edu-cation the same no-child-left-behind at-titude they applied to K -12 education.

Their aversion to large-scale institu-tional politics may gradually subsideas Gen Xers enter midlife. In everyage bracket they have entered thus far,voter participation rates have fallen tohistorical lows. This has given their gen-eration a libertarian flavor -they aremore oriented toward ownership andpersonal connections and less likely totrust bureaucracies. They have far lessrepresentation in Congress or as stategovernors than any prior U.S. genera-tion at the same age.

This could change, however -not,perhaps, in the number who vote or runfor public office but in the importanceof leaders who do step forward. Historycontains several examples of a nomadgeneration that rapidly rises to power



in many urban areas, while entry-levelpay in most occupations remains un-changed. The vagaries of a globalizinglabor market and jobs without benefitsor security will come as a shock to mem-bers of this sheltered generation, manyof whom expected that all their carefulpreparation would guarantee them acomfortable future. A wedge will sepa-rate those whose families can help themstart out in life from those whose fami-lies cannot. Most of the latter will findit difficult to begin careers in public ser-vice, teaching, or the arts. The issues ofeconomic class and privilege will loomlarge for young Millennial workers-partially displacing the concerns aboutgender, race, and ethnicity that preoccu-pied young Boomer and Xer workers.

Millennials will be more confident,trusting, and teachable in the work-place than their Boomer and Gen Xcolleagues. They will also be viewedas more pampered, risk averse, and de-pendent. Many employers are alreadycomplaining about their need for con-stant feedback and their weakness inbasic job skills such as punctuality andproper dress -though most employerswho manage large numbers of themagree that they can perform superblywhen given clear goals and allowed towork in groups. Millennials will have

and displaces an older generationof prophets. These have resulted lessfrom patient party politics than fromthe sudden emergence of a charismaticindividual. Such leaders will bring anidiosyncratic style to public life. BarackObama (born 1961) is waging an explic-itly anti-Boomer campaign that will setthe tone for future Gen X forays intoleadership on the national level.

Gen X political leaders will seekpragmatic, no-nonsense solutions andwill argue far less than Boomers everdid. Having grown up in a time whenwalls were being torn down, familiesdissolved, and loyalties discarded, theywill focus on reconstructing the socialframeworks that produce civic order.They will waste no time on the obvi-ously insoluble and won't fuss over themerely annoying. To them, the outcomewill matter more than the method,money, or rhetoric used to get there.

ligion Millennials will favor friendly rit-uals and community building over per-sonal spirituality. Even in their thirtiesthey will remain much closer to theirparents (living nearer to them and rely-ing more on their advice) than Boom-ers and Gen Xers were at the same age.Companies that today" comarket" theirproducts to teens and their parents willnow broaden their efforts to reach theentire extended family.

Millennials will gravitate toward bigbrands. Likewise, their pop culture willbe bland, mainstream, and friendly(while seeming derivative to older gen-erations). Young film stars will be linkedwith positive themes, will display moremodesty in sex and language, and willbring new civic purpose to screen vio-lence. As in Disney's High School Mu-sical, stories and songs will be upbeatand team-oriented but lacking in depth.Sports players will be more coachable,more loyal to teams and fans, and lessinclined toward taunting. Celebritieswill win praise as good role models.

Millennials will carve out fresh con-cepts of public cyberspace and use in-formation to empower groups ratherthan individuals. As the first generationto grow up with mobile digital technol-ogy, Millennials expect nonstop inter-action with their peers in forms that

If Boomer- and Xer-led bu~;inesses adjust to the Millennialwork style, economic productivity could surge even asjob turnover declines. If they do not, they should bracefor opposition.

would have been unimaginable to priorgenerations of young adults. They willdevelop new standards for social net-working, identifying a clear range of ac-ceptable online attitudes and behaviors.


Millennials will face tough challengesas they enter the workplace. They aresaddled with far larger student loans(in real dollars) than any earlier gener-ation. Housing costs have skyrocketed

more of a knack for cooperation and or-ganization than for out-of-the-box ini-tiative. They will tend to treat cowork-ers as partners rather than rivals.

Businesses will respond to the surgeofMillennials in the workplace by build-ing a more ordered work environmentwith clearer lines of authority and su-pervision and a greater number of teamprojects. Nonmonetary benefits will in-crease as young workers put a higher

The Young Adulthood ofMillennialsMillennials will prove false the assump-tion (prompted by the experience ofBoomers and Xers) that each genera-tion of young adults is more alienatedand risk prone than the one before.Many Millennials will want to correctfor the impracticality of Boomers andthe indiscipline of Gen Xers. Many el-ders will be pleased with how theseyoung people are doing, while othersmay misinterpret their confidence asself-centeredness. As they move throughtheir twenties, Millennials will alreadybe accustomed to meeting and beatingadult expectations. They will revive theideal of the common man, whose virtueis defined less by self than by a collegialcenter of gravity.

Millennials will develop communitynorms based on rules, standards, andpersonal responsibility; every arenawill become more mannerly, structured,and civic-minded. In college they willlean less toward countercultural dissentand more toward the "rah-rah" aspect ofcampus life; school colors will becomean important badge of belonging. In re-


they witnessed as children. When theyencounter leaders who cling to thoseold ways, they will work to defeat them.Their stand on the issues is likely to cutacross conventional labels. In their will-ingness to use government aggressivelyto protect the community, strengthenthe middle class, and reduce economicrisk, they will seem liberal. Yet in theirconventional life goals, respect forrules, and patriotism, they will seemconservative.

Just as the political agenda of the1990S centered on children, the politicalagenda of the 20105 and 2020S will cen-ter on young adults. With the allegianceof youth more readily available to poli-ticians, younger voters may power a na-tional party to victory for the first timesince the 1930S. Some elders will fearthe rise of a generation they perceiveas capable but naive, more interestedin large-scale public action than in per-sonal privacy or liberty.

personal, social, and economic interde-pendence with their parents than priorgenerations had. And they will seek tocreate stable and long-lasting families asthey begin having their own children.

Millennials will use their digital em-powerment to build and maintain closepeer bonds. New parents will create on-line support groups and cover personalWeb pages with pictures of their chil-dren. Virtual communities will serve theneeds of young adults, from finding jobsto buying houses to babysitting to pur-suing hobbies. First-wave Millennialsalready depend on online communitiessuch as Craigslist and Freecycle to helpthem set up their lives after college.

As more of them reach voting age,Millennials will become a politicalpowerhouse. They will see politics asa tool for turning collegial purposeinto civic progress. Young adult voterswill confound the pundits with hugeturnouts, massing to support favoredcandidates -especially elders who cantranslate spiritual resolve into publicauthority. They will reject what theyperceive as the negativism, moralism,and selfishness of the national politics

premium on job security; employerswill find it easier to cultivate loyalty ina generation with unusually long timehorizons. As they seek balance betweentheir work lives and their private lives,Millennials will try to get their careersoff to a "perfect" start. Many will decideagainst the high-risk paths to advance-ment (on which years of hard work cango unrewarded) frequently offered bycorporate and professional employers.

If Boomer- and Xer-led businessesadjust to the Millennial work style, eco-nomic productivity could surge evenas job turnover declines. If they do not,they should brace for opposition. Ifyoung workers perceive that they arebeing treated unfairly, they will demon-strate their talent for organizing -andmay even revitalize the union move-ment. Unlike young Gen Xers, who typi-cally quit and move on when they havea workplace problem, Millennials areused to staying put and waiting untilsomeone in charge solves the problem.

In the community and politics. Mil-lennials' close family relationships willcontinue as they move into young adult-hood. They will have a much tighter

The Childhood of HomelandersAs parents, as legislators, and as me-dia producers, Gen Xers will substan-tially shape the Homeland Genera-tion. Already gaining a reputation asextremely protective parents, these Xerstay-at-home dads and security momswill want to protect their children fromthe Dazed and Confused childhood theythemselves experienced during the con-sciousness revolution. The rules createdfor Millennials, no longer controver-sial, will become customary. Home-landers will be tracked by mobile digitaltechnology, screened by psychologicalsoftware, and surveilled by entertain-ment controls that limit their access toanything inappropriate. Older Ameri-cans will regard them as well-behavedand diligent -yet also as innocent, riskaverse, and emotionally fragile.

The Cycle ContinuesIf you are a marketer planning the nextgeneration of consumer products orservices, or an architect thinking aboutthe design of buildings that will serveworkers for decades, or a manager in



any area of business that must fore-see changing attitudes in the broaderpopulation, the availability of a strongpredictive model is tremendously im-portant. Can you be confident thatthe coming decades will produce thechanges we've described? Is the gen-erational perspective the right one tosupport long-term decision making?

With every passing year we be-come more confident that it is. In thelate 1980s, when we formulated ourtheory, first-wave Millennials werestill very young children, and crime,teen pregnancy, and substance abusehad reached alarming levels amongGen Xers. Experts in teen behaviorwere predicting a continued rise innegative behaviors as the Millennialsentered their teen years. But, look-ing back at the youthful behavior ofearlier hero generations with similarlocations in history (such as the GIs),we predicted declines in those behav-iors across the board. Sure enough, in2000, when the first Millennials grad-uated from high school, news stories

risk and sacrifice. Generation X willtransform midlife as practical prob-lem solvers. Gen X traits criticized fordecades -survivalism, pragmatism, re-alism -will be recognized as vital na-tional resources. Millennials will trans-form young adulthood as America'snew junior citizens, deeply engaged incivic life. They will revitalize commu-nity and public purpose, filling the rolebeing vacated by senior-citizen GIs.

History suggests that with the gen-erations so aligned, the risk of a majorcrisis (whether geopolitical, military,economic, or environmental) will begreat -but so, too, will be the opportu-nity to fix national or even global prob-lems that today seem beyond solution.In business as in government, familylife, and other areas, the people whosucceed in naVigating this future willbe those who understand how historycreates generations, and generationscreate history. ~

about improving teen behavior beganto appear.

Today, as ever, forecasters make thefaulty assumption that the future willbe a straight-line extrapolation fromthe recent past. They predict that thenext set of people in each phase oflife will behave like a more extremeversion of the current set. In truth, so-cial change is nonlinear -but it is notchaotic. An understanding of genera-tional archetypes allows us to predictmuch about the decades ahead.

Over the next 20 years each oftoday'sgenerations will enter its next phase oflife. In doing so, each will transformthat phase in ways that echo throughour history. This is how history repeatsand society progresses. Each new younggeneration fills a role being vacated byan older generation, a role that nowfeels fresh, functional, desirable, andeven necessary for society's well-beilIg.

Boomers will transform old age aschampions of values. They will urgethe nation to act decisively on thosevalues -even if doing so requires civic

Reprint RO707B

To order, see page 195.

Co

:-SE

Q


Documents

by Neil Howe and William Strauss E"