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March 8, 2013 Dear Colleagues and Friends, On behalf of the Lyndon State College Student Chapter of the American Meteorological Society and the National Weather Association (LSC- AMS & NWA), I welcome you to the 38 th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference (NESC) at the Rutland/Killington Holiday Inn in Rutland, Vermont. The NESC serves as an excellent platform for professionals and students alike to share new ideas with individuals from all sectors of meteorology. This functions to unify the many facets of the meteorological community, and to expose students to a wide range of topics and methods. The Saturday afternoon Panel Discussion offers a unique opportunity for students to gain valuable insights into the various paths a meteorological career can take. Our Ice Breaker Speaker on Friday evening is Stephen (Steve) Bennett, J.D. is a founding partner and Chief Science and Products Officer for EarthRisk Technologies. Steve's leadership role includes directing EarthRisk's product pipeline as well as providing strategic guidance for the company’s research portfolio. He also manages the EarthRisk development team and is the company liaison with university researchers around the world. EarthRisk provides software as a solution for analysts who link weather to business decisions. Saturday night’s Banquet Speaker is Dr. Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux. An applied climatologist by training, Dr. Dupigny-Giroux's research interests intersect a number of interdisciplinary fields including hydroclimatic natural hazards and climate literacy as well as the use of remote sensing and GIS (Geographic Information Systems) in the fields of spatial climate and land-surface processes. Dr. Dupigny- Giroux is also the State Climatologist for Vermont, a role which has allowed her to facilitate dialogue among meteorology, climatology, emergency management, agriculture, forestry and GIS users across the state. To close the conference on Sunday morning are speaker is Kevin Skarupa. Meteorologist, Kevin Skarupa, can be seen weekdays from 5 to 7 a.m. on News 9 Daybreak with Erin Fehlau and Sean McDonald, then on News 9 at Noon. Kevin earned a meteorology degree from Lyndon State College in Vermont and currently holds both the AMS Television Seal of Approval and the Certified Broadcast Meteorologist seal. The amount of dedication and work various people put into this conference is remarkable. I would like to thank the entire LSC- AMS & NWA including our faculty advisor, Dr. Nolan Atkins, for their efforts in making this year’s conference a success. In particular, I would like to acknowledge the LSC - AMS & NWA executive board who has worked very hard since last spring to bring this wonderful event to life. Thank you to Sarah Murphy, for designing this year’s booklet cover. As always, the LSC- AMS & NWA is very thankful to the Lyndon State College Student Government Association, which provides our annual funding for the NESC, and to the Rutland/Killington Holiday Inn for all of their hard work to ensure that the weekend runs as smoothly as possible. Last, but certainly not least, I would like to thank all of the speakers, presenters, vendors, and attendees for all of your spectacular information and insight. Every year, we rely heavily upon your input in the planning of this conference. With this in mind, I ask that you please complete the questionnaire enclosed with your registration materials. Positive feedback and suggestions for improvement would both be greatly appreciated. We hope that you will find this year’s Northeastern Storm Conference to be a very informative and rewarding experience, and that you will join us again in 2014! Warmest Regards, Jebril Postle President Lyndon State College- AMS & NWA

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March 8, 2013

Dear Colleagues and Friends,

On behalf of the Lyndon State College Student Chapter of the American Meteorological Society

and the National Weather Association (LSC- AMS & NWA), I welcome you to the 38th

Annual

Northeastern Storm Conference (NESC) at the Rutland/Killington Holiday Inn in Rutland, Vermont.

The NESC serves as an excellent platform for professionals and students alike to share new ideas

with individuals from all sectors of meteorology. This functions to unify the many facets of the

meteorological community, and to expose students to a wide range of topics and methods. The Saturday

afternoon Panel Discussion offers a unique opportunity for students to gain valuable insights into the

various paths a meteorological career can take.

Our Ice Breaker Speaker on Friday evening is Stephen (Steve) Bennett, J.D. is a founding partner

and Chief Science and Products Officer for EarthRisk Technologies. Steve's leadership role includes

directing EarthRisk's product pipeline as well as providing strategic guidance for the company’s research

portfolio. He also manages the EarthRisk development team and is the company liaison with university

researchers around the world. EarthRisk provides software as a solution for analysts who link weather to

business decisions.

Saturday night’s Banquet Speaker is Dr. Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux. An applied climatologist

by training, Dr. Dupigny-Giroux's research interests intersect a number of interdisciplinary fields including

hydroclimatic natural hazards and climate literacy as well as the use of remote sensing and GIS

(Geographic Information Systems) in the fields of spatial climate and land-surface processes. Dr. Dupigny-

Giroux is also the State Climatologist for Vermont, a role which has allowed her to facilitate dialogue

among meteorology, climatology, emergency management, agriculture, forestry and GIS users across the

state.

To close the conference on Sunday morning are speaker is Kevin Skarupa. Meteorologist, Kevin

Skarupa, can be seen weekdays from 5 to 7 a.m. on News 9 Daybreak with Erin Fehlau and Sean

McDonald, then on News 9 at Noon. Kevin earned a meteorology degree from Lyndon State College in

Vermont and currently holds both the AMS Television Seal of Approval and the Certified Broadcast

Meteorologist seal.

The amount of dedication and work various people put into this conference is remarkable. I would

like to thank the entire LSC- AMS & NWA including our faculty advisor, Dr. Nolan Atkins, for their

efforts in making this year’s conference a success. In particular, I would like to acknowledge the LSC-

AMS & NWA executive board who has worked very hard since last spring to bring this wonderful event to

life. Thank you to Sarah Murphy, for designing this year’s booklet cover. As always, the LSC- AMS &

NWA is very thankful to the Lyndon State College Student Government Association, which provides our

annual funding for the NESC, and to the Rutland/Killington Holiday Inn for all of their hard work to ensure

that the weekend runs as smoothly as possible. Last, but certainly not least, I would like to thank all of the

speakers, presenters, vendors, and attendees for all of your spectacular information and insight.

Every year, we rely heavily upon your input in the planning of this conference. With this in mind,

I ask that you please complete the questionnaire enclosed with your registration materials. Positive

feedback and suggestions for improvement would both be greatly appreciated.

We hope that you will find this year’s Northeastern Storm Conference to be a very informative

and rewarding experience, and that you will join us again in 2014!

Warmest Regards,

Jebril Postle President

Lyndon State College- AMS & NWA

1

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Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

38th

ANNUAL NORTHEASTERN STORM CONFERENCE

Table of Contents

Agenda…………………………………………………………………………………….2

Panel Discussion..................................................................................................................7

Conference Area Floor Map ...................................... …………………………………….9

Guest List ................................................................................................ ………………..11

Vendors…………………………………………………………………….…………….17

Keynote Speaker Biographies ........................................................................................... 18

Oral Presentation Abstracts............................................................................................... 21

Poster Presentation Abstracts ............................................................................................ 51

Notes…………………………………………………………………….……………….58

2

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ANNUAL NORTHEASTERN STORM CONFERENCE AGENDA

FRIDAY 8 MARCH 2013

Centre Foyer

2:00 PM – 8:00 PM Registration and Check-In

Centre Ballroom

8:15 PM – 8:30 PM Opening Remarks

8:30 PM – 9:30 PM Friday Night Ice-Breaker

Speaker: Stephen Bennett, J.D.

Centre Ballroom/Centre Foyer

9:30 PM – 10:30 PM Friday Night Social

Ben & Jerry’s Popsicles will be served

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SATURDAY 9 MARCH 2012

Paynters Restaurant

7:00 AM – 8:00 AM Breakfast

Centre Ballroom

8:10 AM – 8:15 AM Opening Remarks

8:15 AM – 8:30 AM Morning Weather Briefing

By: Eleanor Vallier-Talbot

Tropical Meteorology Session 1 –

TM1

Governor’s Room

8:30 AM

TM1.1 On the Actions and Inaction of

the U.S. Weather Bureau During the

Great New England Hurricane of 1938.

Lorudes Aviles, Plymouth State

University. Page 21.

8:50 AM

TM1.2 Upper-Level Precursors

Associated with Subtropical Cyclone

Formation in the North Atlantic Basin.

Alicia Bentley, Lance Bosart and

Daniel Keyser, University at Albany.

Page 22.

9:10AM

TM1.3. Five Linked September (2011)

Northern Hemisphere Tropical

Cyclones: Noru, Talas, Lee, Nate, and

Katia. Lance Bosart and Kyle Griffin,

University at Albany and University of

Wisconsin-Madison. Page 23.

Climatology Session 1 – CL1

Vermont Room

8:30 AM

CL1.1 At Eighty Years Old, Beginning a

New Era of Research and Engaged

Scholarship at Mount Washington

Observatory .Eric Kelsey, Mount

Washington Observatory. Page 25.

8:50 AM

CL1.2 Diurnal Wind Event

Climatology in New Hampshire.

Stephen Quinn and Eric G. Hoffman,

Plymouth State University. Page 26.

9:10AM

CL1.3 Climatology and Evolution of

Convective Storms Approaching the

Southern Coast of the Northeast U.S.

Kelly Lombardo, Michael Erickson and

Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University.

Page 27.

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9:30AM

TM1.4 The extratropical transition of

TC Dale (1996) and its impact on the

early 1996-97 wintertime stratospheric

circulation. Andrea Lang, Daniel

Keyser and Lance F. Bosart,

University at Albany. Page 24.

9:30AM

CL1.4 The Effects of Extreme

Precipitation Events on Climatology.

Pamela Eck and Nicholas Metz,

Hobart and William Smith Colleges.

Page 28.

Ethan Allen Room

9:50 AM – 10:30 AM Break and Poster Session

**Forecasts due!**

Tropical Meteorology Session 2 –

TM2

Governor’s Room

10:30 AM

TM2.1 The Evolution of the Large-

scale Extratropical Flow Pattern

Associated with West Pacific Tropical

Convection Prior to the Genesis of

Superstorm Sandy.Lawrence C.

Gloeckler, University at Albany. Page

29.

10:50 AM

TM2.2 The Development and Tropical

Transition of an Unnamed High Latitude

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone.

Nicholas Metz and Alicia Bentley,

Hobart and William Smith Colleges and

University at Albany. Page 30.

Climatology Session 2 – CL2

Vermont Room

10:30 AM

CL2.1 A Climatology of Central

American Gyres. Philippe P. Papin,

Kyle S. Griffin, Lance F. Bosart, and

Ryan D. Torn, University at Albany.

Page 33.

10:50 AM

CL2.2 Validation of regional

precipitation indices dynamically

downscaled from ERA-Interim

reanalysis data by a Mesoscale

atmospheric model. J.L. Hanrahan,

C.C. Kuo and T.Y. Gan Page 34.

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11:10AM

TM2.3 On the Impacts of Western

North Pacific Tropical Cyclones on the

Moisture Content of Their Large Scale

Tropical Atmospheric Environment.

Benjamin Schenkel and Robert Hart,

University at Albany and FSU. Page 31.

11:30 AM

TM2.4 The Impact of Cloud

Microphysics on Hurricane Track.

Kristen Corbosiero and Robert Fovell.

11:10AM

CL2.3 The Role of the North Altantic

Thermohaline Circulation As A Possible

Trigger For The Younger Dryas

Oscillation. Jonathan Byrne,

Consulting Meteorologist. Page 35.

Page 32.

Paynters Restaurant

11:50 AM – 1:00PM Lunch

Winter Session 1 – WN1

Governor’s Room

1:00PM

WN1.1 The 25-27 December 2010

Snowstorm: A case study of the

associated Upper-Level Jet-Front

System . Hannah Attard and Andrea

Lang, University at Albany. Page 36.

1:20 PM

WN1.2 The Motion of Mesoscale

Snowbands in Northeast U.S. Winter

Storms. Jaymes Kenyon, Lance Bosart,

Daniel Keyser and Michael Evans,

University at Albany and National

Weather Service – Binghamton NY.

Page 37.

Environment Session 1– ET1

Vermont Room

1:00PM

ET1.1 Dynamic and Statistical Modeling of

Storm Surge for the New York City Region.

Keith Roberts, Brian A. Colle, and Hamish

Bowman, Stony Brook University. Page 40.

1:20 PM

ET1.2 Comparison of Two Volcanic

Ash Height Estimation Methods and

Their Affects on the HYSPLIT Volcanic

Ash Model Output . Kyle Wodzicki,

SUNY-Oswego. Page 41.

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1:40PM

WN1.3 A Case Study of the 6 August

2012 962hPa Arctic Ocean Cyclone . Eric Adamchick, University at Albany.

Page 38.

2:00PM

WN1.4 Field Observations and Modeling of the

Microphysics Within Winter Storms

Over Long Island, NY. Brian Colle,

David Stark and Sandra Yuter, Stony

Brook University, National Weather

Service – New York City and North

Carolina State University. Page 39.

1:40PM

ET1.3 Field-Forest Microclimates &

Biological Diversity . Neil Laird and

Augusta Williams, Hobart and William

Smith Colleges. Page 42.

Ethan Allen Room

2:20 PM – 3:00 PM Break and Poster Session

Winter Session 2 – WN2

Governor’s Room

3:00PM

WN2.1 A Connection Between

Intraseasonal Tropical Variability and

Strong Northeast Snowstorms. Nicholas

Schiraldi, Paul Roundy and Lance

Bosart, University at Albany. Page 43.

3:20 PM

WN2.2 Investigation of Lake-effect

Structure Using Doppler on Wheels data

and WRF Model Simulations. Robert

Schrom, SUNY Oswego. Page 44.

Severe Weather Session 1 – SV1

Vermont Room

3:00PM

SV1.1 Observations of Wall Cloud

Formation in Supercell Thunderstorms.

Timothy Nicholson, Eva Glidden and

Nolan Atkins, Lyndon State College.

Page 46.

3:20 PM

SV1.2 Persistence and Dissipation of

Lake Erie- and Lake Ontario-Crossing

Mesoscale Convective Systems. Augusta

Williams and Nicholas Metz, Hobart

and William Smith Colleges. Page 47.

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3:40PM

WN2.3 The prediction of onset and

duration of freezing rain in the Saint-

Lawrence River Valley. Sophie

Splawinski, Eyad Atallah, John

Gyakum and Benjamin Borgo, McGill

University and Washington University.

Page 45.

3:40PM

SV1.3 The Intense Progressive

Derecho of 29-30 June 2012: Initiation,

Maintenance, and Impacts.Corey

Guastini, Lance Bosart and Ross

Lazear, University at Albany. Page 48.

Governor’s Room

4:30 PM – 5:30 PM Panel Discussion

Daniel Dowling

WCAX TV

Joshua Fanjoy

202nd

Weather Flight

Massachusetts Air National Guard

Dr. Nicholas Metz

Hobart and William Smith Colleges

Green Mountain Room

5:30 PM – 7:00 PM Lyndon State College Alumni Reception

Centre Ballroom

7:00 PM – 9:00 PM Banquet Dinner

Speaker: Dr. Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux

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SUNDAY 10 MARCH 2012

Paynters Restaurant

8:00 AM – 9:00 AM Breakfast

Centre Ballroom

9:10 AM – 9:15 AM Opening Remarks, Raffle, and Forecast Results

9:15 AM – 9:30 AM Morning Weather Briefing

By: Eleanor Vallier-Talbot

Severe Session 2 – SV2

Centre Ballroom

9:30 AM

SV2.1. Synoptic-scale precursors and

typing of warm-season heavy

precipitation events at Montreal,

Quebec. John Gyakum, Shawn

Milrad, Eyad Atallah, Giselle

Dookhie, McGill University. Page 49.

Ethan Allen Room

10:00 AM – 10:30 AM Break and Poster Session

Centre Ballroom

10:30 AM – 11:30 AM Sunday Morning Keynote Speakers

Speakers: Kevin Skarupa

11:30 AM –11:45 PM Closing Remarks

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Map of the Rutland/Killington Holiday Inn

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Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

A SPECIAL THANK YOU:

To LSC-AMS&NWA Faculty Adviser Dr. Nolan T. Atkins for his invaluable support and advice

throughout the year.

To the faculty and staff of the Atmospheric Sciences Department at Lyndon State College for

their support and respect for the club.

To LSC-AMS&NWA Historian Sarah Murphy for designing this year’s creative and original

booklet cover.

To the LSC Student Government Association for their generous contribution to help make this

conference possible year after year.

To the members of the LSC-AMS&NWA executive board and club for their incredible role in

planning and putting on this conference, and for their friendship and support through the whole

year.

To our guest speakers, Stephen Bennett, J.D., Dr. Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux and Kevin

Skarupa for their remarkable willingness to share their knowledge and experiences with everyone

and lending their prestige to the conference.

To all of the presenters at the conference, for sharing your hard work, furthering the science, and

giving this conference the great name it has earned in our community.

All of the students, professionals, and friends who attend the conference, for your eagerness to

learn and enthusiasm to meet new people, making this all very worthwhile.

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Northeastern Storm Conference Guest List

Jebril Postle Lyndon State College President

James Sinko Lyndon State College Vice President

Matthew Davey Lyndon State College Secretary

Torrance Gaucher Lyndon State College Treasurer

Amanda Curran Lyndon State College Public Relations

Kayla Flynn Lyndon State College Community Outreach

Sarah Murphy Lyndon State College Historian

Nolan Atkins Lyndon State College AMS/NWA Advisor

Bruce Berryman Lyndon State Faculty

Janel Hanrahan Lyndon State Faculty

Jason Shafer Lyndon State Faculty

Frederic Emigh Lyndon State Faculty

Joe Bertolino President - Lyndon State College

Claudine Pierz Lyndon State College Club Representative

Ashley Merzon Lyndon State Prospective Student

Steven A Copertino Lyndon State Prospective Student

Sebastion Lury Lyndon State College Admission

Alex Avalos Lyndon State College

James Bielli Lyndon State College

Haley Bouley Lyndon State College

Kelly Butler Lyndon State College

Holly Cannon Lyndon State College

Josh Cingranelli Lyndon State College

Stephen Decatur Lyndon State College

Eva Glidden Lyndon State College

Jeremy Goldberg Lyndon State College

Joey Gollotto Lyndon State College

Robert Gould Lyndon State College

Jeremy Hall Lyndon State College

Casey Hecker Lyndon State College

Curran Hendershot Lyndon State College

Tara Hersey Lyndon State College

Emilie Hillman Lyndon State College

Andrew Janes Lyndon State College

Allison LaFleur Lyndon State College

Alexander Lee Lyndon State College

Anthony Macari III Lyndon State College

Christopher McCray Lyndon State College

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Francis McInerney Lyndon State College

Nicholas Merianos Lyndon State College

Scott Myerson Lyndon State College

Timothy Nicholson Lyndon State College

Curt Olson Lyndon State College

Aaron Perry Lyndon State College

Claudine Pierz Lyndon State College

Josh Searles Lyndon State College

Melissa Segall Lyndon State College

Alyssa Sylvia Lyndon State College

Ed Vallee Lyndon State College

Arianna Varuolo Lyndon State College

Eric Weglarz Lyndon State College

Alexander Williams Lyndon State College

William Wilson Lyndon State College

Falicia Woody Lyndon State College

Ariel Wright Lyndon State College

Colton Zercher Lyndon State College

Joshua Fanjoy 202nd Weather Flight Mass ANG

Joe Sciacca Austin Prep

Joe Sciacca Boston Herald

Kathy Sciacca Boston Herald

Stephen Bennett EarthRisk Technologies

Marko Nikic Hamilton College

Neil Laird Hobart & William Smith Colleges

Brooke Adams Hobart & William Smith Colleges

Benjamin Ayres Hobart & William Smith Colleges

Katherine Coughlin Hobart & William Smith Colleges

Caitlin Crossett Hobart & William Smith Colleges

Pamela Eck Hobart & William Smith Colleges

Raleigh Grysko Hobart & William Smith Colleges

Chad Hecht Hobart & William Smith Colleges

Macy Howarth Hobart & William Smith Colleges

Nick Marenakos Hobart & William Smith Colleges

Nicholas Metz Hobart & William Smith Colleges

Augusta Williams Hobart & William Smith Colleges

Steven Copertino KPMG LLP

John Gyakum McGill University

Sophie Splawinski McGill University

Tyra Brown Millersville AMS

Ian Eppig Millersville AMS

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James Fowler Millersville AMS

Felicia Guarriello Millersville AMS

Andrew Henry Millersville AMS

Evan Keeler Millersville AMS

Joseph Markiewicz Millersville AMS

Evan Ntonados Millersville AMS

Melanie Ragon Millersville AMS

Michelle Serino Millersville AMS

Abigail Stimach Millersville AMS

Andrew Yarosh Millersville AMS

Eric Kelsey Mt. Washington Observatory

Evan Heller NWS-Albany, NY

Kyle Avery New England Storm Chasers

Eleanor Vallier-Talbot NWA Education Cmte. Co-Chair

Eric Drewitz Oswego State University

Stephen Piechowski Oswego State University

Lourdes Aviles Plymouth State University

Eric Brill Plymouth State University

Matthew Cann Plymouth State University

Stephanie Capraro Plymouth State University

Kevin Cronin Plymouth State University

Ryan Curtin Plymouth State University

Evan Delhay Plymouth State University

Eddie Dixon Plymouth State University

Jacob Fedors Plymouth State University

Megan Godfrey Plymouth State University

Gabrielle Guerra Plymouth State University

Kristen Guillemette Plymouth State University

Liana Haddad Plymouth State University

Alyssa Hammond Plymouth State University

Christopher Harle Plymouth State University

David Heeps Plymouth State University

William Henneberg Plymouth State University

Brendon Hoch Plymouth State University

Eric Hoffman Plymouth State University

Heather Janssen Plymouth State University

Stewart Kaczynski Plymouth State University

Jason Kaiser Plymouth State University

Emily Kane Plymouth State University

Katie Laro Plymouth State University

Kevin Lupo Plymouth State University

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Kyle Martin Plymouth State University

TJ Palmer Plymouth State University

Erin Rinehart Plymouth State University

Zachary Ruggiero Plymouth State University

Rachel Sass Plymouth State University

Conrad Schmidt Plymouth State University

Tenley Sodeur Plymouth State University

Vanesa Urango Plymouth State University

Chengpeng Wang Plymouth State University

Brian Wehner Plymouth State University

Elizabeth Somers Plymouth State University

Kevin Kelly Precision Weather

Jonathan Byrne Rising Sun Consulting

James Danco Rutgers University

Anthony Adams Rutgers University

Shunondo Basu Rutgers University

Paul Beam Rutgers University

Shawnie Caslin Rutgers University

Michael Chen Rutgers University

David Grace Rutgers University

Sherilyn Graham Rutgers University

Gina Kelshaw Rutgers University

Michael Lee Rutgers University

Daniel Manzo Rutgers University

Joe Martucci Rutgers University

Katie McCracken Rutgers University

Stephen Osinski Rutgers University

Jennifer Pagliei Rutgers University

Rebecca Evrard Rutgers University

Andrew Fisher Rutgers University

Kelsey Johnson Rutgers University

Adam Rainear Rutgers University

James Fullmer S. Connecticut State University

Jason Keefer Savona, NY

Zack Manyak

Brian Camarda Stony Brook University

Brian Colle Stony Brook University

Aaron Doucett Stony Brook University

Michael Erickson Stony Brook University

Sara Ganetis Stony Brook University

Keith Roberts Stony Brook University

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Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Matthew Sienkiewicz Stony Brook University

Anthony Ayala Stony Brook University

Michael Colbert Stony Brook University

Kevin Montalvo Stony Brook University

Jessica Quickle Stony Brook University

Peter Ramirez Stony Brook University

Andrew Simakov Stony Brook University

William Verity Stony Brook University

Breanna Zavadoff Stony Brook University

Daniel Caputi Stony Brook University

Greg Diamond SUNY Albany

Melissa Godek SUNY Oneonta

Amanda Baum SUNY Oneonta

Anthony Baum SUNY Oneonta

Danielle Browarski SUNY Oneonta

Jordan Contract SUNY Oneonta

Alyssa Dubbs SUNY Oneonta

Sarah Galligan SUNY Oneonta

Thomas King SUNY Oneonta

Daniel Linek SUNY Oneonta

David Loveless SUNY Oneonta

Matthew Makower-Brown SUNY Oneonta

Andrew Messina SUNY Oneonta

Katelyn Barber SUNY Oswego

Mark Becker SUNY Oswego

Julie Budd SUNY Oswego

Mary Butwin SUNY Oswego

Andrew Calvi SUNY Oswego

Patrick Cavlin SUNY Oswego

Ryan Farrell SUNY Oswego

Kayla Fenimore SUNY Oswego

Tara Hecke SUNY Oswego

Samuel Hewitt SUNY Oswego

Ryan Kiely SUNY Oswego

Victoria Love SUNY Oswego

Daniela Pirraglia SUNY Oswego

Ashley Poreda SUNY Oswego

Ariel Powers SUNY Oswego

Jordan Rabinowitz SUNY Oswego

Richard Russell SUNY Oswego

Robert Schrom SUNY Oswego

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Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Peter Speck SUNY Oswego

Alfred Stamm SUNY Oswego

Scott Steiger SUNY Oswego

Madison Van Kuren SUNY Oswego

Michael Vuotto SUNY Oswego

Brian West SUNY Oswego

Kyle Wodzicki SUNY Oswego

Courtney Zupo SUNY Oswego

Jake Mulholland SUNY Oswego

Michael Stahlman SUNY Oswego

Jerome Blechman SUNY Oneonta

Paul Grabkowski SUNY Albany

Samantha Basile SUNY Albany

Brittany Bennett SUNY Albany

Kurt Hansen SUNY Albany

Rachel O'Donnell SUNY Albany

Brian Tang SUNY Albany

Eric Adamchick SUNY Albany

Hannah Attard SUNY Albany

Alicia Bentley SUNY Albany

Lance Bosart SUNY Albany

Kristen Corbosiero SUNY Albany

Larry Gloeckler SUNY Albany

Corey Guastini SUNY Albany

Andrea Lang SUNY Albany

Ross Lazear SUNY Albany

Philippe Papin SUNY Albany

Benjamin Schenkel SUNY Albany

Nick Schiraldi SUNY Albany

Jaymes Kenyon SUNY Albany

Adrian Mitchell SUNY Albany

Doug MacPherson USMA, West Point

Dr. Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux UVM / Vermont Climatologist

Daniel Dowling WCAX-TV

Ben Sisskind Weather Routing Inc.

John Hickey WENT-TV

BILL KARDAS WKTV

Adam Musyt WKTV-TV, Utica, NY

Kevin Skarupa WMUR

Amy Grabkowski

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Vendors

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meteorologist, Low Pressure Inc.com is a must see for weather enthusiasts of any degree.

Whether you are shopping for weather related tee-shirts, gadgets, or educational tools,

Low Pressure Inc.com is your one stop weather shop on the web. If you love weather,

then you will love Low Pressure Inc.com. sited: http://lowpressureinc.com/

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Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Key Note Speakers

Friday Night Ice Breaker

Stephen Bennett, J.D.

Stephen (Steve) Bennett, J.D. is a founding partner and Chief Science and Products

Officer for EarthRisk Technologies. Steve's leadership role includes directing EarthRisk's product

pipeline as well as providing strategic guidance for the company’s research portfolio. He also

manages the EarthRisk development team and is the company liaison with university researchers

around the world. EarthRisk provides software as a solution for analysts who link weather to

business decisions. EarthRisk's research goes into the proverbial “black hole” for predicting

weather more than one week in advance. We pioneer "big data" for weather analysis by

leveraging the power of cloud computing to perform millions of statistical calculations each day.

EarthRisk's products link past weather events to future forecast outcomes in real time. We

provide data-driven probabilistic forecasts for extreme temperature events up to 40-days ahead.

Prior to founding EarthRisk, Steve spent three years at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at

UC San Diego where he forged relationships linking earth systems research to energy, insurance,

and financial firms. Steve has been a meteorologist since 1995, forecasting the weather and

applying weather research for financial investing and media applications. He served six years at

Citadel Investment Group, a hedge fund in Chicago, where he was part of the team that built and

launched Citadel's Global Energy Trading business. Steve also spent nearly two years at the

Enron Corporation in the research division supporting natural gas trading. The first half of his

career spanned a variety of consulting companies and media outlets including The Weather

Channel, WeatherData Inc. and Weather Services Corporation. Steve completed his

undergraduate meteorology degree in 1995 from the University of South Alabama and graduated

Magna Cum Laude from the John Marshall Law School in 2008. He is currently the chairman of

the American Meteorological Society's Energy Committee on the AMS Board for Enterprise and

Economic Development and Commission for the Weather and Climate Enterprise.

Website: www.earthrisktech.com

Email: [email protected]

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Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Saturday Night Banquet Speaker

Dr. Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux

An applied climatologist by training, Dr. Dupigny-Giroux's research interests intersect a

number of interdisciplinary fields including hydroclimatic natural hazards and climate literacy as

well as the use of remote sensing and GIS (Geographic Information Systems) in the fields of

spatial climate and land-surface processes. In terms of hazards, she has examined the spectre of

drought in both semiarid environments in northeast Brazil, as well as humid continental ones like

northeastern North America. Earlier work in the Journal of the American Water Resources

Association outlines the climatic underpinnings of drought in Vermont and shall be used as part

of a national effort to develop a North American-wide definition of drought. Her recently

published work includes guest editing a special issue of the journal Physical Geography, devoted

to the theme of climate literacy. Other publications (e.g. Remote Sensing of Environment) delve

into the use of multiangular imaging to examine drought stress in New England wetlands. Finally,

Dr. Dupigny-Giroux is the lead editor of Historical climate variability and impacts in North

America, the first monograph of its kind to deal with the use of documentary and other ancillary

records in the analysis of climate variability and change. Dr. Dupigny-Giroux is also the State

Climatologist for Vermont, a role which has allowed her to facilitate dialogue among

meteorology, climatology, emergency management, agriculture, forestry and GIS users across the

state. She continues to work closely with colleagues at these and other state agencies to better

quantify the causal dynamic and impacts of floods, droughts and severe weather on Vermont’s

physical landscape. Dr. Dupigny-Giroux teaches introductory courses in physical geography and

geotechniques. Her intermediate and advanced level courses include topics on Climatology,

Remote Sensing, Advanced GIS Applications, and Satellite Climatology and Land-Surfaces

Processes. She holds a B.S. in Physical Geography and Development Studies from the University

of Toronto (1989), an M.S.(1992) in Climatology and Hydrology and a Ph.D. (1996) in

Climatology and Geographic Information Systems from McGill University.

Website: www.uvm.edu/~vtstclim/

Email: [email protected]

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Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Sunday Morning Speaker

Kevin Skarupa

Meteorologist, Kevin Skarupa, can be seen weekdays from 5 to 7 a.m. on News 9

Daybreak with Erin Fehlau and Sean McDonald, then on News 9 at Noon. Kevin earned a

meteorology degree from Lyndon State College in Vermont and currently holds both the AMS

Television Seal of Approval and the Certified Broadcast Meteorologist seal. Kevin has also

worked for KIMT in Mason City, Iowa; WPBF in West Palm Beach, Fla.; and WKRN in

Nashville. If he looks familiar, it’s because Kevin worked at WMUR back in 1998 doing

weekend weather under the name "Kevin Joseph." His favorite part of the job is visiting dozens

of schools a year and talking with students about weather. The toughest part is the alarm clock,

which goes off around 1 a.m. Kevin enjoys playing golf, running and watching sports. He and his

wife Melissa (a Merrimack native) have a son, Levi, and miniature beagle, Shilo.

Website: www.wmur.com/weather

Twitter: www.twitter.com/WMUR

Facebook: www.facebook.com/nhweather

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Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

8:30 AM – 8:50 AM

On the Actions and Inaction of the U.S. Weather Bureau

During the Great New England Hurricane of 1938

Dr. Lourdes Aviles

Plymouth State University

Plymouth, NH 03264

Much has been written about the Great New England Hurricane of 1938, which

left behind widespread devastation throughout the region, killing hundreds, modifying the

coastline and decimating the forest. Once the storm was past Cape Hatteras, as was

procedure since 1935, responsibility for the storm's tracking, forecasting and warning was

handed off to the Washington DC Weather Bureau Office, who issued "northeast storm

warnings", but no "hurricane warnings." The storm was expected by all to "recurve

northeast" and dissipate over the North Atlantic; but not only did it not continue

recurving as expected, it moved much faster than previously known possible and it also

maintained its intensity well into interior New England. As one might expect,

immediately following the storm and throughout the years, the Weather Bureau was and

continued being criticized for not issuing adequate warnings.

The author will discuss the story of Charles H. Pierce, the junior forecaster

attributed with having forecasted the hurricane's track correctly, Charles L. Mitchell, the

forecaster in charge who allegedly overruled the need for hurricane warnings (while

having himself performed a detailed study of hurricane tracks just the previous decade

and also being recognized by his contemporaries as one of the best forecasters in the

nation), the criticism and the Bureau's response to the criticism. Finally, and more

importantly, the history behind the observational and analysis tools available to

forecasters at that time and how they might have made a difference in the Hurricane's

forecast and warnings will also be examined.

This historical meteorology research study is part of a larger project by the author, a

book on the science and history surrounding The Great New England Hurricane of 1938,

which will be published later this year by the American Meteorological Society in

parallel with the 75th anniversary of the storm.

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38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

8:50 AM – 9:10 AM

Upper-Level Precursors Associated with Subtropical Cyclone Formation

in the North Atlantic Basin

Alicia M. Bentley, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY 12222

Oceanic cyclones exhibiting properties of both tropical and extratropical systems

have been categorized as subtropical cyclones (STCs) since the early 1950s. The

opportunity to investigate the roles of baroclinic and diabatic processes during the

evolution of STCs from a PV perspective motivates this study. The development of

STCs, sometimes called hybrid cyclones in the current literature, requires the existence of

a baroclinically unstable environment, quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent, and the

production of lower-to-midtropospheric potential vorticity (PV) by diabatic heating.

Previous studies have established that STC formation is associated with weak low-level

baroclinicity, significant lower-to-midtropospheric PV, and relatively cold upper-

tropospheric air accompanying intrusions of midlatitude PV streamers into the subtropics.

The hybrid nature of STCs makes them potential candidates to become tropical cyclones

(TCs) via the tropical transition (TT) process. We will investigate the roles of baroclinic

and diabatic processes during TT by calculating three PV metrics from the NCEP

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis 0.5° gridded dataset. The three PV metrics quantify

the relative contributions of: 1) lower-tropospheric baroclinic processes, 2)

midtropospheric condensation heating, and 3) upper-tropospheric dynamical processes

during the evolution of individual cyclones. Quantification of these three contributions

reveals the changing PV structure of an individual cyclone, suggests fluctuations in the

dominant energy source of the cyclone, and aids in distinguishing between various

cyclone types. Synoptic-scale anticyclonic wave breaking (AWB) events in the

midlatitudes inject relatively cold upper-tropospheric air into the subtropics in association

with PV streamers. Such intrusions of relatively cold upper-tropospheric air can help to

destabilize the subtropical troposphere and facilitate the development of the deep

convection that can serve as a catalyst for STC formation. A synoptic overview of STC

Sean (2011) will be presented as an illustrative case of STC formation. Sean formed

beneath the fractured equatorward end of an elongated PV streamer on the equatorward

side of a fold-over ridge produced by an antecedent AWB event. An evaluation of the

relative contributions of lower-tropospheric baroclinic processes, midtropospheric

condensation heating, and upper-tropospheric dynamical processes during the evolution

of STC Sean (2011) reveals the reduction of upper-tropospheric PV and enhancement of

midtropospheric PV during TT, as well as an enhancement in lower-tropospheric

baroclinicity as the cyclone becomes extratropical.

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38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

9:10 AM – 9:30 AM

Five Linked September (2011) Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones: Noru,

Talas, Lee, Nate, and Katia

Lance F. Bosart and Kyle S. Griffin1

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

The University at Albany 1Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

University of Wisconsin-Madison

The period from 1-10 September 2011 featured five tropical cyclones (TCs), two

over the western Pacific (Noru and Talas) and three over the Gulf of Mexico and western

Atlantic (Lee, Nate, and Katia), that could be linked to one another through mutual

interactions and downstream development with subsequent high-impact weather events

over eastern North America. Slow-moving, large TC Talas produced widespread heavy

rainfall over Japan. Anticyclonic wave breaking (AWB) northeast of TC Talas enabled a

potential vorticity (PV) streamer to form to the south over the subtropical western Pacific.

TC Noru formed southeast of TC Talas by the tropical transition process along this PV

streamer. A second AWB event occurred over the northwestern Pacific as TC Noru

engaged in a binary interaction with TC Talas and both storms subsequently underwent

extratropical transition along the northeastern coast of Asia. The second AWB

culminated in the formation of a deep downstream trough over the Gulf of Alaska.

Farther downstream, TC Lee formed over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, drifted

northeastward, and made landfall in eastern Louisiana on 5 September at which time it

was experiencing ET ahead of a meridionally elongated trough over the central U.S. This

trough became meridionally elongated in response to the aforementioned downstream

trough development over the Gulf of Alaska and subsequent ridge amplification over

western North America. TC Nate formed over the Bay of Campeche at the southern end

of a wind shift line that marked a remnant cold front that stretched southward from TC

Lee and was associated with the meridionally elongated trough. TC Nate produced very

heavy rains over eastern and southeastern Mexico and subsequently made landfall over

eastern Mexico. The southern part of the trough west of TC Lee fractured from the main

PV reservoir while the northern part continued eastward toward New England. The

remnants of TC Lee moved northeastward along a low-level frontal boundary ahead of

the fractured trough and produced very heavy rainfall. Diabatic outflow-induced upper-

level ridging over the western Atlantic ahead of TC Lee helped steer TC Katia, an

Atlantic storm that was active at the time that TC Lee made landfall in Louisiana, toward

extreme southeastern New England. Deep tropical moisture ahead of TC Katia flowed

northward and north-northwestward around the western side of the western Atlantic

ridge. This moisture, in conjunction with moisture flowing north-northeastward from the

remnants of TC Lee, contributed to heavy rains over parts of New England and Atlantic

Canada.

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38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

9:30 AM – 9:50 AM

The extratropical transition of TC Dale (1996) and its impact on the early 1996-97

wintertime stratospheric circulation

Andrea Lang, Daniel Keyser and Lance Bosart

University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY

It has become increasingly accepted that recurving tropical cyclones (TCs) can

have substantial impacts on the hemispheric general circulation as well as downstream

forecast uncertainty. A recurving TC that transitions into an extratropical cyclone can

excite a Rossby wave train that is associated with meridional fluxes of heat and

momentum. In some cases, meridional fluxes of heat and momentum extend well into

the stratosphere, where such fluxes are associated with an upward EP flux from the

troposphere into the stratosphere. An environment characterized by EP flux convergence

experiences an increase in wave activity and consequently a decrease in the westerly

momentum of mean zonal wind. When an extratropical transitioning TC occurs during

the spin-up of the northern hemisphere wintertime circulation, the impact of the EP flux

convergence in the stratosphere can be to slow the establishment of the wintertime

stratospheric polar vortex and the associated stratospheric polar night jet. (Typical

recovery times in the stratosphere are on radiative timescales of 30-60 days.)

This talk will explore the hypothesis that the processes associated with the

recurvature of TC Dale (1996) were responsible for a warming of the Arctic polar cap

and the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex. After TC Dale recurved and became

extratropical, there was a surge in EP flux from the troposphere to the stratosphere. The

EP flux convergence (associated with a decrease in westerly momentum) was located

along the flank of the stratospheric polar vortex and was associated with stratospheric

ridge amplification over Alaska. The ridge amplification occurred at a point in the

season when the stratospheric polar night jet was climatologically spinning up for the

winter; however, the flux of wave activity from the troposphere to the stratosphere from

recurving TC Dale resulted in a weakened stratospheric polar vortex and a substantial

departure from climatology. The potential implications of this event on the Arctic

Oscillation (AO) as well as subseasonal forecasting will be highlighted.

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38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

8:30 AM – 8:50 AM

At Eighty Years Old, Beginning a New Era of Research and Engaged Scholarship at

Mount Washington Observatory

Eric P. Kelsey

Plymouth State College

Mount Washington Observatory

Since 1932, Mount Washington Observatory’s mission has been to advance our

understanding of the natural systems that create the Earth’s weather and climate, by

maintaining the mountaintop weather station, conducting research and educational

programs and interpreting the heritage of the Mount Washington region. For eighty

years, MWO observers, scientists, and staff have worked diligently to advance this

mission and have collaborated with external scientists to conduct original research across

the Appalachian Mountains of New England. In 2012, MWO undertook a major

advancement toward its mission by hiring its first full-time Director of Research, a

position that is joint with Plymouth State University as a professor in atmospheric

science. This presentation, given by the new Director of Research, will begin by

highlighting the first eighty years of research at Mount Washington Observatory – from

measuring “the” big wind in April 1934 (231 mph) to measuring cosmic rays, and

understanding the physics of rime ice accretion in mountainous terrain. The second half

of the presentation will feature current research projects (e.g., first climatological study of

the summit’s wind record; rime icing impacts on treeline elevation in the Presidential

Mountains) and future research and operational goals for this legendary institution.

26

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

8:50 AM – 9:10 AM

Diurnal Wind Event Climatology in New Hampshire

Stephen Quinn and Eric G. Hoffman

Department of Atmospheric Science and Chemistry

Plymouth State University

Plymouth, NH

A previous study of power outages in New Hampshire showed that strong wind

events that led to major outages typically began during the overnight hours between 04 –

10 UTC (11 pm – 5 am EST). These winds events usually lasted for 36 or more hours.

The diurnal climatology of winds has not been well documented in the literature with

very little data published from New England. Therefore this study attempts to document

the diurnal wind climatology in New Hampshire. Five years (2007 – 2011) of hourly

METAR data from four stations (Keene, Portsmouth, Concord, and Berlin) were used. In

order to examine wind events, a definition of a high wind event was developed by

examining the overall wind speed frequency at each station. In this study a high wind

event was any event in which the wind speed or gust exceeded the 90th percentile value

(10 knots and 15 knots respectively) for more than three consecutive observations (e.g.

two hours). The results of the strong wind event climatology show that most high wind

events begin in the afternoon (17 – 21 UTC, 12 pm – 4 pm EST), are relatively short

lived (< 6 hours), and occur throughout the year with a maximum in the summer months.

Long duration wind events (typically > 24 hours) occur during the cold season and begin

anytime during the day with nearly 40 – 50 % of them beginning between 00 - 12 UTC (7

pm – 7 am EST).

27

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

9:10 AM – 9:30 AM

Climatology and Evolution of Convective Storms Approaching the Southern Coast of the

Northeast U.S.

Kelly Lombardo, Michael Erickson, and Brian A. Colle

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY

Deep convection is strongly modified over the Northeast U.S. by the terrain, coastal, and

urban areas. For the past few years we have been investigating the climatology of warm season

convection using NOWrad radar data and cloud-to-ground lightning data (Murray and Colle

2011), distribution of different convective storm types (isolated cell, quasi-linear lines, and non-

linear systems) and their relationship to severe weather (Lombardo and Colle 2010; 2011), the

interaction of quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs) with land-ocean boundaries (Lombardo

and Colle 2012), and the recent New York City (NYC) tornadoes (Colle et al. 2012). This talk

will summarize some of the key findings from these studies, with an emphasis on why some

systems quickly decay when encountering the coast while others maintain their intensity.

Composite analyses show that convective lines that decay near the Atlantic coast or

slowly decay over the coastal waters are associated with 900–800-hPa frontogenesis, with

greater ambient 0–3-km vertical wind shear for the slowly decaying lines. Systems that maintain

their intensity over the coastal ocean are associated with 900-hPa warm air advection and

relatively weak low-level frontogenetical forcing. There is also a weaker mean surface cold pool

for the sustaining systems than the decaying QLCSs, which may favor a more long-lived system

if the horizontal vorticity from this cold pool is more balanced by low-level vertical shear.

Neither sea surface temperature nor ambient instability was a clear delimiter between the three

evolutions. Shortly before the early morning of the NYC tornadoes on 8 August 2007, a

mesoscale convective system intensified in the lee of the Appalachians in a region of low-level

frontogenesis and moderate MUCAPE (~1500 J kg−1

). Warm advection at low levels and

evaporative cooling within an elevated mixed layer (EML) ahead of the mesoscale convective

system (MCS) helped steepen the low-level lapse rates.

28

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

9:30 AM – 9:50 AM

The Effects of Extreme Precipitation Events on Climatology

.

Pamela Eck and Nicholas Metz

Department of Geoscience, Hobart and William Smith Colleges

Extreme weather events can drastically affect the local climate. For example, in

September 2010, Albany, New York received 0.76 inches of rain over the first 29 days of

the month. On 30 September, 2.68 inches of rain fell in association with a quasi-

stationary boundary, resulting in a 0.13-inch precipitation surplus for the month. On

paper, the total precipitation recorded for this month appears to be nearly normal.

However, this “normal” month resulted from a singular extreme event. Three years

earlier during May 2007 in Albany, NY, relatively small amounts of precipitation fell on

8 separate days, resulting in a cumulative monthly rainfall total of 3.51 inches, near the

mean of 3.67 inches. Despite the extreme variation in the two monthly precipitation

distributions, both of these months appear on paper to be “normal” because the

cumulative monthly precipitation for both are comparable to the mean and monthly

precipitation totals do not take into account the distribution of precipitation throughout

the entire month.

This presentation will examine precipitation data records from a number of sites

across the United States in an attempt to understand whether “normal” monthly

cumulative precipitation is made up of several days of little precipitation, or a few days of

extreme precipitation. A 30-year climatology of daily precipitation totals spanning 1981-

2010 has been gathered for ten different cities across the United States. Each city was

selected based on climate, geographic location, topography, and proximity to water

bodies. Only the months of April through September were studied to limit issues

associated with measuring liquid equivalent from snowfall. Preliminary results indicate

that months with smaller rainfall totals generally featured fewer precipitation events per

month and larger percentages of the total monthly rainfall accumulating during the largest

single event. Conversely, months with larger rainfall totals generally featured more

precipitation events each month and smaller percentages of the total monthly rainfall

accumulating during the largest single event. One of the main controlling factors for

extreme precipitation events was found to be the distribution of convection.

29

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

10:30 AM – 10:50 AM

The Evolution of the Large-scale Extratropical Flow Pattern Associated with West

Pacific Tropical Convection Prior to the Genesis of Superstorm Sandy

Lawrence C. Gloeckler

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

SUNY Albany, Albany, NY

Past research has associated organized tropical convective modes with the

modulation of the extratropical circulation pattern and the development of high-impact

weather events (e.g., tropical cyclones) downstream. Rossby wave trains are excited

through the amplification of mid-latitude flow in association with upper-tropospheric

divergent outflow linked to organized tropical convection. As these wave trains amplify,

they are often observed to break, which can enhance subtropical ridging and

simultaneously excite low-level circulations in the tropics by driving high potential

vorticity (PV) air equatorward. Thus, organized tropical convection over the West Pacific

can influence the evolution of large-scale flow patterns favorable for the genesis of

tropical cyclones downstream.

A preliminary analysis suggests linkage between organized tropical convection

over the Maritime Continent and West Pacific, and the evolution of the downstream flow

prior to the development of Superstorm Sandy. Associations between organized tropical

convection, the amplification of the subtropical jet, and persistent wave breaking prior to

the genesis of Sandy are examined in this analysis.

30

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

10:50 AM – 11:10 AM

The Development and Tropical Transition of an Unnamed High Latitude

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone

Nicholas D. Metz1 and Alicia M. Bentley

2

1Department of Geoscience

Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY 14456

2Department and Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, Albany, NY 12222

With the advent of satellite data, observations have shown that tropical cyclones

(TCs) can form in “non-traditional” locations outside of tropical latitudes. Recently,

axisymmetric, warm core cyclones have been identified in a variety of these non-

traditional locations including the South Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. These

TCs often develop as a result of the tropical transition (TT) process where diabatic

heating reduces the vertical wind shear over the cyclone, facilitating tropical

cyclogenesis.

In October 2006 an unnamed TC developed at ~40°N over the eastern North

Pacific via the TT process. A baroclinic cyclone, which formed in association with a

thinning midlatitude trough in the Gulf of Alaska, served as the precursor disturbance that

would ultimately undergo TT. Convection associated with a bent-back frontal structure

upstream of the cyclone led to diabatically induced potential vorticity ridging that

reduced the vertical wind shear over the system. The cyclone subsequently occluded,

became removed from the upper-level jet stream, and developed a warm core.

Amazingly, the TT of this unnamed TC occurred over sea surface temperatures that were

only ~16°C. Approximately four days after formation, the TC moved onshore along the

western United States, impacting northern Washington with high winds and precipitation.

This presentation will utilize observations and reanalysis data as part of a

multiscale investigation of the variety of ingredients and processes that combined to

allow the formation of a TC in such a non-traditional location. Additionally WRF-

simulated analyses will be employed to investigate mesoscale processes at work within

the TC that were not captured by observations. An additional goal of the simulations will

be to explore TC structural differences that arise from changing the complexity of the

microphysical schemes within the WRF model.

31

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

11:10 AM – 11:30 AM

On the Impacts of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones on the Moisture

Content of Their Large Scale Tropical Atmospheric Environment

Benjamin A. Schenkel

University at Albany, SUNY

Robert E. Hart

The Florida State University

An important focus of ongoing research in tropical meteorology is why there are,

on average, 60 tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Northern Hemisphere per year and how this

number may be altered due to climate change. Moreover, questions remain regarding

why TCs within the Eastern North Pacific, North Atlantic (NATL), and Western North

Pacific (WPAC) exhibit a similar horizontal spacing between 1500 km to 1800 km during

multiple TC events despite the differences in the large-scale atmospheric environment

among basins and the size of each basin. Reconciling these fundamental questions

regarding TC activity is potentially at least partially rooted in determining the relevance

of TCs within their tropical atmospheric environment. While prior work has suggested

that TCs may potentially be responsible for cooling and drying their large-scale

atmospheric environment, the role of TCs within the tropics remains unresolved.

Building upon the foundation provided by prior work, the following study will

objectively quantify and analyze the response of the moisture content of the large-scale

atmospheric environment to TC passage. The crux of this study hinges upon the use of

storm-relative composites of reanalysis data from the NCEP Climate Forecast System

Reanalysis for TCs in the Western North Pacific (WPAC). Vertically integrated moisture

budgets are then used to attribute anomalies to specific physical processes.

The impacts of WPAC TCs upon the moisture content of their large-scale

environment are primarily associated with an anomalous drying of the lower and middle

tropospheric atmospheric environment to the west and southwest of the TC. The drying

appears to be caused by upper level convergence resulting from the interaction of the TC

outflow with its environment. On the western side of the TC, both the upper level flow

from the anticyclone of the Asian monsoon and the increasing inertial stability with

latitude due to the meridional gradient of planetary vorticity limit the ventilation to the

west of the TC yielding upper level convergence. The area of anomalous drying to the

southwest is associated with the convergent upper level flow from the right exit region of

the anticyclonically curved equatorward outflow jet of the TC. These results may suggest

that WPAC TCs play a substantial climatological role in drying their large scale tropical

atmospheric environment during the late summer and early fall given the presence of, on

average, at least one TC during the peak of TC season.

32

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

11:30 AM – 11:50 AM

The Impact of Cloud Microphysics on Hurricane Track

Kristen L. Corbosiero1 and Robert G. Fovell

2

1

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY

2

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA

In the absence of strong steering flow, the propagation of tropical cyclones is

largely due to the establishment of ‘‘beta gyres’’ due to the advection of planetary

vorticity by the storm’s circulation. Previous research has demonstrated that the winds

well beyond the storm core influence storm motion by helping to determine the

orientation and intensity of the beta gyres. Assumptions in the cloud microphysical

parameterizations in numerical models, especially those involving average particle fall

speeds, can strongly influence tropical cyclone outer wind structure, and thus affect the

speed and direction of storm motion.

A real-ideal hybrid of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has

been used to simulate hurricanes in an initially calm environment with uniform sea

surface temperature (SST), but with real data model characteristics such as radiation,

boundary layer physics and Earth curvature. Analysis of these simulations reveals how,

and why, cloud microphysical assumptions can influence storm motion. Specifically,

cloud microphysics modulates the radial distribution of column-average virtual

temperature, which largely determines the radial surface pressure gradient and therefore

the winds that tend to be in gradient balance. Microphysical schemes can differ markedly

with respect to average fall speed, depending on the complexity of the scheme and how

interactions among condensation types are handled. Average fall speed controls the

outward movement of particles produced in the eyewall into the anvil, where they can

influence the environment through cloud-radiative interactions and phase changes.

33

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

10:30 AM – 10:50 AM

A Climatology of Central American Gyres

Philippe P. Papin, Kyle S. Griffin, Lance F. Bosart, and Ryan D. Torn

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany/SUNY

1400 Washington Avenue

Albany, NY 12222

Monsoon gyres, commonly found over the western Pacific Ocean, are

characterized by broad low-level cyclonic circulations that occur at a variety of spatial

scales ranging from 1500-3000 km. Low-level cyclonic gyre circulations, while less

frequent and occupying a smaller scale, are also observed over Central America during

the tropical cyclone (TC) season. A noteworthy gyre observed during the 2010 PREDICT

field project served as a “collector” of TC Matthew and a source for TC Nicole. During

October 2011, devastating flooding occurred in Guatemala and El Salvador when TD 12-

E, embedded in a gyre circulation, made landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America.

These gyre occurrences, their apparent links to TC activity, and their association with

high-impact weather motivates this presentation.

A preliminary analysis of Central American gyres suggests that their spatial scales vary

between 1000-2000 km. These gyres also tend to be co-located with reservoirs of deep

moisture that are characterized by high precipitable water values (>50 mm) and

embedded deep convection on their southern and eastern sides. Catastrophic flooding can

occur when gyre cyclonic circulations interact with the topography of Central America.

A Central American gyre climatology including gyre frequency over the TC season will

be presented. This climatology is then used to craft a gyre composite using previous gyre

cases from 1980-2010. Particular attention will be given to the common synoptic and

sub-synoptic scale features that precede and take place during gyre formation. This

includes the role that intraseasonal and interannual circulations such as the Madden-

Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) might play in gyre

development. TC genesis events within gyre circulations will also be highlighted and

examined further. Finally, the results of a September 2010 case study will be used to

illustrate the impact Central American topography has on the development of gyre

circulations. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be employed to

understand the role of topography in the gyre’s formation and evolution by running

several simulations comparing a control run to simulations with adjusted terrain.

34

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

10:50 AM – 11:10 AM

Validation of regional precipitation indices dynamically downscaled from ERA-

Interim reanalysis data by a mesoscale atmospheric model

J.L. Hanrahan, C.C. Kuo, T.Y. Gan

Extreme precipitation events in central Alberta have overwhelmed hydraulic

structures several times in recent years, and it is expected that rainfall intensity in this

region will continue to increase over the next several decades. Accurate rainfall

projections, which are communicated in the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF)

curves, are thus needed to design sufficient municipal structures. Such data may be

obtained through the use of Regional Climate Models (RCMs), and one in particular, the

fifth-generation NCAR/Penn State mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5), is investigated

here. MM5 is used to dynamically downscale ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data, to

evaluate its ability to accurately simulate rainfall characteristics in central Alberta, over

two consecutive summers representing contrasting precipitation regimes. Precipitation

simulated at the local scale is verified with Edmonton’s local rain gauge network, while

larger-scale precipitation is compared with the High Resolution Precipitation Product

(HRPP), CMORPH. This particular HRPP was compared with rain gauge data and radar

images which revealed that it can be reliably used to validate MM5 output in this region.

MM5 output is also compared to data from a local sounding station and other reanalysis

variables. Precipitation data generated by MM5 revealed that this RCM can indeed

distinguish between wet (2010) and dry (2009) years, but that simulated rainfall totals are

too high during both precipitation regimes. This bias may be attributed to enhanced

moisture advection, and should be taken into consideration when using MM5 to make

projections regarding possible changes to future precipitation conditions in central

Alberta.

35

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

11:10 AM – 11:30 AM

The Role of the North Altantic Thermohaline Circulation As A Possible Trigger

For The Younger Dryas Oscillation

Jonathan Ariel Forest Byrne

Consulting Meteorologist

212 Commonwealth Ave, Suite 5

Boston, MA 02116

[email protected]

The Younger Dryas Oscillation occurred at approximately 12.8 kyr B.P. ( Before

Present) and was characterized by an abrupt departure of the mean longitudinal

temperature trend during this time. As the amelioration of Wisconsin Ice Epoch was well

underway, this anomaly manifested initially as a rapid decrease in surface temperature of

5 c to 10c over a period of mere decades, followed by warming of equal magnitude. A

number of hypotheses have been propounded to explain this abrupt climate change event

including coupling with shifts in atmospheric composition (greenhouse gases), a bolloid

impact and ejection of atmospheric aerosols, to a disruption in the thermohaline

circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic Basin. In the case of the latter hypothesis, it has

been suggested that the release of fresh water into the Atlantic Basin from the ablation of

the Laurentide ice sheet resulted in a break down of the North Atlantic conveyor belt /

thermohaline circulation hence heat distribution. The net impact was an accelerated

cooling via a positive feedback loop composed of increased snowfall commensurate with

decreased surface albedo leading to this interstadial cooling. This paper will investigate

the North Atlantic THC and its contributions as a trigger for the Younger Dryas event.

36

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

1:00 PM – 1:20 PM

The 25-27 December 2010 Snowstorm:

A case study of the associated Upper-Level Jet-Front System

Hannah E. Attard and Andrea A. Lang

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, SUNY

Upper-level jet-front (ULJF) systems are commonly associated with the

development of upper-tropospheric precursors to surface cyclogensis. The analysis

presented here will highlight the dynamics of several ULJF systems during and prior to

the cyclogenesis event associated with the 25-27 December 2010 East Coast snowstorm.

Particular attention will be paid to the role of individual substructures of ULJF systems,

namely the upper-tropospheric and the lower-stratospheric fronts, in shaping the upper-

level environment prior to the development of this impactful Holiday Season snowstorm.

The 25-27 December 2010 cyclone had significant impacts on much of the east

coast of the United States. Surface cyclogensis originated over Southeastern Louisiana

on 25 December with snowfall beginning in the early morning hours in northern Alabama

and Mississippi and ending in the late evening on 27 December in New England. From

Raleigh, NC to Washington D.C. to New York City many densely populated areas were

affected by heavy snowfall resulting in significant impacts on travel; effects which were

multiplied due to the Christmas season.

The NCEP/NCAR GFS 1-degree analysis is employed to examine the life cycle

and characteristics of the ULJF systems associated with this cyclogensis event. Prior to

the development of this cyclone the upper-level flow was characterized by a ridge over

the Mountain West and an embedded shortwave trough over Texas. Within is upper-

level flow were several ULJF systems, the dynamics of which will be examined in the

context of their role in the development of precursors to this substantial surface

cyclogenesis event.

37

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

1:20 PM – 1:40 PM

The Motion of Mesoscale Snowbands in Northeast U.S. Winter Storms

Jaymes S. Kenyon, Lance F. Bosart and Daniel Keyser

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York

Michael S. Evans

NOAA/NWS, Binghamton, New York

The distribution of snowfall accumulation attending winter storms is a product of

both precipitation intensity and duration. Many heavy snowfall events are associated

with distinct mesoscale snowbands, which strongly modulate snowfall accumulation.

Mesoscale snowbands are known to be favored within environments characterized by

frontogenetical forcing in the presence of weak moist symmetric or gravitational

stabilities. Although the development of mesoscale snowbands can often be successfully

anticipated at 24−36 h forecast ranges, anticipating band duration at a fixed location

remains a forecasting problem. However, given that snowband duration is closely related

to attributes of snowband motion, improved understanding of band motion presents an

opportunity to improve snowfall accumulation forecasts.

This study investigates the synoptic and mesoscale features associated with

specific snowband motion characteristics. A classification scheme for snowband motion

is proposed, wherein bands are categorized as laterally translating, laterally quasi-

stationary, hybrid, or pivoting. Laterally translating bands exhibit predominately cross-

axis motion, thereby favoring uniform snowfall accumulation along their paths. In

contrast, laterally quasi-stationary bands exhibit approximately zero cross-axis motion,

favoring heavy snowfall accumulation along a narrow corridor. Hybrid bands are

dominated by along-axis motion, but with a concurrent cross-axis component of motion,

yielding snowfall accumulations on an intermediate spatial scale. Finally, pivoting bands

exhibit pronounced rotation over a limited region, yielding a quasi-stationary band in that

region, where heavy snowfall accumulation is particularly favored. Using archived

WSR-88D data, 71 heavy snow cases in the Northeast U.S. (spanning the years

2005−2010) are being classified according to this scheme. Gridded data from the 0.5°

resolution NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis are used to identify synoptic and

mesoscale features associated with these cases.

Preliminary results suggest that lower-tropospheric temperature advection, flow

confluence/diffluence, and flow curvature in the near-band environment are useful in

distinguishing between environments favoring laterally translating, laterally quasi-

stationary, hybrid, or pivoting snowband modes. These near-band environmental

attributes may be described by partitioning the Q-vector into along- and cross-stream

components, thereby providing a quantitative approach to anticipating snowband motion.

Four cases that typify these respective snowband modes and their attendant synoptic and

mesoscale environments will be presented.

38

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

1:40 PM – 2:00 PM

A Case Study of the 6 August 2012 962 hPa Arctic Ocean Cyclone

Eric Adamchick

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York

Albany, New York

The 962 hPa Arctic cyclone of August 2012 was one of the strongest

storms ever known to exist over the Arctic Ocean during the warm season.

Cyclogenesis of the storm was a result of a highly amplified pattern, which

created an anomalous baroclinic zone over Northern Russia. Warm air advection

from an antecedent cyclone over the Arctic Ocean further enhanced and shifted

this baroclinic zone poleward. Shortly after cyclogenesis, the developing cyclone

crossed the jet axis while phasing with the antecedent storm. Subsequently, the

storm encountered substantial dynamic forcing, and ultimately underwent a period

of rapid intensification. The aforementioned dynamic forcing persisted as the

cyclone progressed toward the pole; as a result, the central sea level pressure of

fell to an impressive 962 hPa.

The 962 hPa Arctic cyclone has drawn considerable attention from the

scientific community not only for its untimely strength and location, but also due

to the absence of sea ice leading up to, and during the formation of the storm.

Although few people were actually impacted by this storm, it is important to

know from a societal stand point whether the decreasing sea ice volume will

contribute to stronger and more frequent storms over the Arctic. If so, this could

have serious affects on shipping and drilling at high latitudes, negatively affecting

financial markets globally.

39

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

2:00 PM – 2:20 PM

Field Observations and Modeling of the Microphysics Within Winter Storms

Over Long Island, NY

Brian A. Colle1, David Stark

1,2, and Sandra Yuter

3

1School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, N

2NOAA-National Weather Service, New York City, NY

3North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC

Forecasting snowfall accumulation is challenging due to limitations and

uncertainties in the snow-liquid ratios and the model bulk microphysical

parameterizations (BMPs). The source of these errors is often unknown, since there have

been relatively few in situ observations of the microphysics (ice habit, degree of riming,

and snow density) during Northeast U.S. winter storms. This study investigates the

microphysical evolution and model validation within winter storms observed at Stony

Brook, NY (SBNY located on north shore of east-central Long Island) during the 2009-

2010, 2010-2011, and 2011-2012 winter seasons. Surface microphysical measurements

were taken every 15 to 30 minutes using a stereo microscope and camera, and snow depth

and snow density were also recorded in 15 storms over SBNY. During these storms, a

vertically-pointing Ku-band radar was used to observe the vertical evolution of

reflectivity and Doppler vertical velocities. A Particle Size and Velocity (PARSIVEL)

disdrometer was also used to measure the surface size distribution and fall speeds of

snow at SBNY.

Changes in the height of the maximum vertical motion relative to the favored

growth temperatures led to changes in ice habit throughout the evolution in the comma

head of extratropical cyclones and two heavy snow bands. Cold type ice habits with a few

plates and dendrites were observed with light riming as the surface low was located along

or east of the Mid-Atlantic coast. As the cyclones move northward towards Long Island,

moderately rimed dendrites, plates, and needles are generally observed. Heavily rimed

needles and graupel are often observed near the warm front and cyclone center. Mainly

needles with light riming and a snow-liquid ratio from 8:1 to 9:1 are observed 2 to 4

hours before two heavy snow bands. With the strongest frontogenetical ascent during

snow band maturity, moderately rimed dendrites were observed with snow-liquid ratios

from 11:1 to 13:1. Lightly rimed plates and a snow-liquid ratio of 8:1 were observed after

the heavy snow bands. The WSM6, MORR, THOM2, and SBU-YLIN BMPs in the

Weather Research and Forecasting model at 1.33-km grid spacing were validated in this

study. A non-spherical snow assumption (THOM2 and SBU-YLIN) simulated a more

realistic distribution of reflectivity than spherical snow assumptions in the WSM6 and

MORR schemes. In heavier riming, the Doppler velocity in the WSM6, THOM2, and

MORR schemes were ~0.25 m s-1

too slow with the SBU-YLIN was 0.25 to 0.5 m s-1

too

fast.

40

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

1:00 PM – 1:20 PM

Dynamic and Statistical Modeling of Storm Surge for the New York City Region

Keith Roberts, Brian A. Colle, and Hamish Bowman

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY

Superstorm Sandy (2012) devastated large parts of New York City (NYC), coastal

New Jersey, and Long Island. Although this storm was relatively well forecast by the

atmospheric models with a few days lead time, it was a more difficult prediction problem for

the storm surge models. The Storm Surge Research Group at Stony Brook has been doing

real-time storm surge predictions for several years using the Advanced Circulation

(ADCIRC) model, and Sandy offers some unique challenges given the large diameter of the

storm, large waves, and complex coastal geometry. This talk will first highlight some of our

surge predictions for this event from ADCIRC.

How these storm surges will change in the future is also an important issue for the

long-term coastal planning of the NYC region. We will present some evidence based on our

cyclone tracking research using global climate models from the Coupled Model

Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) that storms along the U.S. East coast may get more

intense heading into the mid-21st century. Since it is too computationally expensive to run

high-resolution surge models for several decades, we have developed a statistical model to

predict storm surge at the Battery, NYC using surface winds and sea-level pressure. This

work utilizes a least squares fitting technique to fit a linear equation to a set of data through

regression. The data for the historical analysis consists of NARR (North American Regional

Reanalysis Data) during the 1979-2012 period (sample size = 95,000). Observed water level

data is obtained from NOAA Tides & Currents. Every other year is used to train the

statistical model, and the other years are used to evaluate the model. Simple, multiple, and

segmented multiple linear regression techniques are used to create equations of varying

predictability using a set of atmospheric predictors. The statistical robustness of the various

models is determined through an analysis of variance (ANOVA). A set of three different

sized domains over the open water region adjacent to NYC are used to collect atmospheric

data in order to determine the best region that could represent the atmospheric winds and

pressure that drives storm surge. The statistical relationship between an N-hour-accumulated

sum of mean zonal wind stress values and observed surge is found to explain the most

variance (N=12, r =0.75) in the observed surge signal. It is found that the N time-length of

the accumulation of wind stress necessary to maximize the correlation of the model is

dependent on the spatial size of the domain. The various regression approaches can explain

43-65% of the storm surge variance, with the smallest errors (MAE of 0.10 m, 0.33 m, and

0.33 m for the all event, 0.6 m, and 1.0 m surge events, respectively, and very little mean

error) using the segmented approach. This statistical model is now being used with the

CMIP5 data to determine how storm surges may change the next several decades.

41

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

1:20 PM – 1:40 PM

Comparison of Two Volcanic Ash Height Estimation Methods and Their Affects on

the HYSPLIT Volcanic Ash Model Output

Kyle Wodzicki

SUNY-Oswego

Volcanic ash plumes can cause many hazards, one being to safety of aircraft. Ash

particles damage aircrafts through the abrasion of their engines and in many cases can

lead to engine failure. To prevent aircraft from flying into ash plumes, the accurate

forecast of the plume’s dispersion is necessary. One model commonly used to forecast

ash plume dispersion is the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory

Model (HYSPLIT). However, to run this model, the top of the ash plume must be

accurately determined. Using two different cloud top estimation techniques, as well as

two different volcanic ash detection techniques to view the plume, the ash plume height

of an erupting volcano was determined. The heights from the two methods used were

compared and then entered into the HYSPLIT Volcanic Ash model. Plan view ash

dispersion of the various model runs was then compared to the actual ash plumes

recorded by satellite imagery to determine which height estimation was the most

accurate.

42

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

1:40 PM – 2:00 PM

Field-Forest Microclimates & Biological Diversity

Neil F. Laird and Augusta Williams

Hobart & William Smith Colleges, Department of Geoscience, Geneva, NY

There is a strong relationship between biologically distinct habitats and their

associated microclimates. Parameters such as temperature, atmospheric moisture,

insolation, wind speed and direction, and precipitation all contribute to establishing a

specific microclimate and an ecotone, a transitional zone between two distinct biological

habitats. The current study combines data collected at the Hobart & William Smith

Colleges’ Hanley Field Preserve by students in two courses during a nine-week time

period in the autumn of 2012 (6 September – 13 November). A diversity study of

invertebrate organisms was conducted by BIO 225 (Ecology) and three weather stations

were deployed by GEO 365 (Environmental Meteorology) to measure atmospheric

conditions along a transect perpendicular to a field-forest edge. Each of the three weather

measurement sites had a relatively distinct microclimate (open field, forest edge, and

interior forest). The open field site experienced the largest variability of atmospheric

conditions and the interior forest site experienced a clear transition in variability of

atmospheric conditions as the forest canopy underwent considerable change. This study

will present information from both the diversity study of invertebrate organisms and the

analyses of collected atmospheric measurements.

43

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

3:00 PM – 3:20 PM

A Connection Between Intraseasonal Tropical Variability and Strong Northeast

Snowstorms

Nicholas J. Schiraldi, Paul E. Roundy, Lance F. Bosart

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

Strong winter cyclones have tremendous impacts on all aspects of life, regardless

of the location they affect. In particular, major winter cyclones that occur in the

Northeastern

United States have a long track record of disrupting the daily lives of millions of people.

The effects of these storms are broad, including lives lost and billions of dollars of

damages. Their severe societal impacts have made these cyclones a high priority research

topic in all aspects of atmospheric sciences. In particular, increasing the predictability of

these storms on synoptic time scales has long been a focus of such research. While most

of this research has focused on the ability of numerical weather prediction to forecast

such storms on synoptic time scales, little research has been done to link the frequency of

these storms to the intraseasonal variability of the tropics.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of intraseasonal

rainfall variability in the tropics. The MJO also has a strong connection to planetary

extratropical flow patterns. This tropical/extratropical connection has been leveraged as a

way to increase the predictability of sensible weather events as early as three to four

weeks in advance. Such sensible weather events include extreme variations in surface air

temperature and tropical cyclone variability. However, it is evident that the frequency of

strong (MSLP below 995-hPa) snowstorms is also linked MJO activity. More

importantly, there is evidence that the frequency of these strong cyclones is tied to the

evolution of the MJO several weeks before the storms onset.

An analysis of these strong snowstorms and their connection to the MJO is

presented using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSr) version 2 dataset. The

MJO is tracked using Wheeler and Hendon’s real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) phase

space. In the thirty-year climatology of the CFSr (1979-2010) there are roughly 122

winter cyclones that reach MSLP below 995-hPa over the Northeastern United States. Of

these events, two thirds occur during RMM phases 1-2 and 6-7. As the amplitude of the

storms is increased (lower MSLP) this relationship between RMM phase and frequency

of occurrence becomes more evident. Further, it is evident that the frequency of these

storms is strongly tied to the progression of the MJO up to three weeks in advance of the

snowstorm.

44

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

3:20 PM – 3:40 PM

Investigation of Lake-effect band structure using Doppler On Wheels data and

WRF model simulations

Robert Schrom

SUNY Oswego

Two intense long lake axis parallel snow bands developed on 16 December 2010

and 4-5 January 2011, each with unique synoptic conditions. The December event

featured a high lake surface to 850 hPa temperature differential while the January event

had only a marginal temperature differential. While both cases had light synoptic flow,

the December event featured a land breeze while the January event did not. This land

breeze had a large influence on the vertical structure of the band's secondary circulation

(the horizontal and vertical flow normal to the long axis of the band).

The structure of each band was examined using RHI cross-sections of reflectivity

and radial velocity taken by the Doppler on Wheels (DOW) mobile radar.

Model simulations of each event were then performed using the WRF-ARW model with

a 1.333 km horizontal grid spacing. The vertical structure of the two simulated bands

seemed to be fairly representative of the structure implied by the radial velocity and

reflectivity RHI scans. The radial velocity was compared with the simulated flow along

cross-sections of the simulated band.

The fairly accurate depictions of the band structures allowed some additional

dynamical insight to be provided by the model simulations. The December case was

shown to have a less symmetric secondary circulation with the area of lower level

convergence located south of the area of upper level divergence. The January case had a

more symmetric secondary circulation with the lower level convergence directly below

the upper level divergence. The differences in the circulation structure between the two

events were partially accounted for by the different low level thermal fields. The WRF

was also run for the December case with a colder lake temperature to observe how the

secondary circulation of the band would differ without a land breeze.

45

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

3:40 PM – 4:00 PM

The prediction of onset and duration of freezing rain in the Saint-Lawrence River

Valley

Sophie Splawinski1, Benjamin Borgo

2, John R. Gyakum

1, Eyad H. Atallah

1

1McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke St. W, Montreal, QC, H3A 0B9

2Washington University, St.Louis, Missouri

Introduction: Freezing rain (FZRA), a hazardous meteorological phenomenon,

poses a significant threat to the general public and can severely damage societal

infrastructure. The phenomenon is well known throughout the St-Lawrence River Valley

(SLRV), which is known to have one of the highest frequencies of FZRA in the world

due to its orography and spatial orientation. Our focus is to provide meteorologists with

the means to better predict both the onset and duration of FZRA at Montreal (CYUL),

Quebec City (CYQB), and Massena (KMSS) in a two-stage process utilizing statistical

and pressure gradient analyses, respectively. Methods: Analysis of a 30-year period, from

1979 through 2008, was conducted. We defined a severe FZRA event as one lasting at

least six hours, with at most four consecutive hourly non-FZRA reports, and found 47

cases at CYQB, 46 cases at CYUL, and 8 cases at KMSS. Furthermore, it was necessary

to incorporate null cases in our regression analysis. We defined a severe null case as one

where precipitation occurred in conjunction with a northeasterly wind for at least six

hours, with at most four consecutive hourly non-precipitation and/or non-northeasterly

wind reports. Northeasterly wind directions were defined in a 50 degree bin

encompassing the orientation of the valley at each city, 40-90 degrees at CYQB, 20-70

degrees at CYUL and KMSS. For our regression analysis, we first recorded surface

temperatures and warmest upper-level temperatures at the onset of severe FZRA events,

the mean upper-level pressure being at 850hPa. Similarly, we then recorded onset surface

and 850hPa temperatures for all null cases. For our pressure gradient analysis, we utilized

a 100km diameter along the axis of the SLRV to calculate the gradient. Results: Our

statistical analysis, utilizing a two-dimensional elliptic Gaussian regression, provides

meteorologists with the POZR (probability of freezing rain): the ability to input model

forecasted temperatures at two pressure levels and determine the probability of the onset

of FZRA based on a 30-year climatology of northeasterly related precipitation. Tests

performed using 2009-2012 ZR event data show the accuracy and feasibility of the

model, which could be implemented by forecasting offices. Furthermore, the pressure

gradient analysis provides meteorologists with the CPOZR (conditional probability of

freezing rain): the ability to analyze the probability of freezing rain duration based on a

30-year climatology. Discussion: Utilizing these methods could provide meteorologists

with the opportunity to produce more highly accurate forecasts of both the onset and

duration of freezing rain events. These methods are also applicable to any region of

similar orographic influences and/or mechanisms for the formation of atmospheric

conditions conducive to freezing rain.

46

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

3:00 PM – 3:20 PM

Observations of Wall Cloud Formation in Supercell Thunderstorms

Timothy Nicholson, Eva Glidden and Nolan Atkins

Lyndon State College

Lyndonville, VT

This study presents an integrated analysis of dual-Doppler radar, cloud

photogrammetry, surface mesonet, and sounding data to examine the formation of two

well-defined wall clouds on 05 and 11 June 2009, and a weaker wall cloud on 26 May

2010 observed during the Verification of the Origins of Tornadoes Experiment

(VORTEX2) field experiment. In order to determine the origin of the wall cloud air mass,

3-dimensional backwards trajectories were computed using trilinear interpolation.

Ground level thermodynamic data were obtained from a series of Mobile Mesonets

deployed in and around the storms. This data was then time adjusted to enlarge the

spacial coverage and reduce any time discontinuities. Dual-Doppler retrieved pressure

perturbations were also calculated to determine if induced lower pressure within the

mesocyclone would partially explain a lowering of cloud base.

Results for all three cases showed that the air comprising the wall cloud

originated from three regions of the storm; the forward flank, rear flank, and inflow

regions. The wall cloud lowering was produced primarily by rain-cooled air in the

forward region being ingested into the low-level updraft. Parcels that originated in the

rear-flank region descended into the wall cloud. Estimation of wall cloud base height

based on mobile mesonet data in the forward flank of the storm was consistent with

photogrammetric estimates. Some of the lowering within the 5 June 2009 storm was

created by the pressure deficit asssociated with strong low-level rotation centered on the

wall cloud. The results of this study will also be compared to historical modeling results

of wall cloud formation.

47

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

3:20 PM – 3:40 PM

Persistence and Dissipation of Lake Erie- and Lake Ontario-Crossing Mesoscale

Convective Systems

Augusta Williams and Nicholas Metz

Department of Geoscience, Hobart and William Smith Colleges

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are ubiquitous features across the Upper

Midwest during the warm season. Forecasting the evolution of these MCSs becomes

difficult as they traverse the Great Lakes. Conventional wisdom suggests that these

MCSs might weaken upon traversing the typically cooler waters of the Great Lakes.

However, many MCSs have been observed to persist or even intensify upon crossing

Lakes Erie and Ontario. Due to populated cities located downstream of the Great Lakes,

it is critical to be able to assess whether these MCS will persist or dissipate.

Environmental and lake characteristics associated with Lake Erie- and Ontario-crossing

MCSs have been documented in order to ascertain the spectrum of situations under which

lake-crossing MCSs persist and dissipate.

Climatological results indicate that of 59 mature MCSs that crossed Lakes Erie

and Ontario during the warm seasons of 2002–2007, 26 (44.1%) persisted while 33

(55.9%) dissipated. May was the most common month for MCSs to cross the lakes and

was the only month to feature more persisting MCSs than dissipating. The large-scale

environment offers clues as to whether the MCSs will persist or dissipate. MCSs often

persist in environments with robust CAPE and shear downstream of the lakes. In

addition, persisting MCSs were often located in the core of an intense 850-hPa low-level

jet stream and on the anticyclonic shear side of a strong 200-hPa jet stream. Selected

observational case study results will accentuate the climatological findings in an attempt

to highlight the differing combinations of environmental and lake conditions that

distinguish between MCSs that persist and those that dissipate.

48

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

9 March 2013

3:40 PM – 4:00 PM

The Intense Progressive Derecho of 29-30 June 2012: Initiation, Maintenance, and

Impacts

Corey T. Guastini, Lance F. Bosart and Ross A. Lazear

Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences

The University at Albany/SUNY

1400 Washington Avenue

Albany, NY 12222

Progressive derechos are a type of well-organized mesoscale convective system

(MCS). A long-lived, long-track severe weather-producing progressive derecho on 29-30

June 2012 produced significant wind damage along a 1500 km swath from the lower

Great Lakes to the Middle Atlantic coast. This derecho took 28 lives, produced

widespread power failures, and generated more than $1B in damages. This derecho also

served as a reminder of the forecasting difficulty intense, progressive-type derechos can

pose. The reason for the difficulty is twofold: 1) progressive derechos form in regimes of

weak synoptic forcing, ultimately being triggered by weak disturbances that have limited

predictability, and 2) progressive derechos are often characterized by MCSs that

transition from elevated convection on the cool side of a surface boundary to severe,

surface-based convection along and on the warm side of the surface boundary as the

derecho organizes and intensifies. Predicting the timing and location of the transition

from elevated to surface-based convection in an MCS that becomes a severe derecho

poses a challenge to forecasters.

The purpose of this presentation is to discuss the initiation, maintenance, and

impacts of progressive derechos. Attention will be paid to warm-season flow

environments in which a continental subtropical anticyclone dominates the contiguous

United States. These environmental flow configurations may coincide with heat wave

conditions that have also been shown to favor the formation of intense, progressive

derechos on the anticyclonic shear side of an upper-level jet. Eastward-moving transient

disturbances in the middle and upper troposphere along the poleward flank of a

continental subtropical anticyclone can initiate progressive derecho development in high

CAPE and moderate shear environments when they migrate eastward along the jet

corridor. The 29-30 June 2012 derecho initiation, maintenance, and impacts will be

discussed in detail.

49

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Oral Presentation Abstract

10 March 2013

9:30 AM – 9:50 AM

Synoptic-scale precursors and typing of warm-season heavy precipitation events

at Montreal, Quebec

John R. Gyakum, Shawn M. Milrad, Eyad H. Atallah and Giselle Dookhie

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

McGill University

Montreal, QC

H3A 2K6

Canada

Using six-hourly precipitation data, we construct a precipitation climatology for

warm-season events at Montreal, Quebec. In all, 1663 events are recorded and

partitioned into three intensity categories (heavy, moderate and light), based on percentile

ranges.

Both heavy and moderate events feature precursor cyclonic anomalies in the northern

Plains, up to three days prior to the heaviest precipitation at Montreal. Light events are

generally associated with weaker precursor features, little southerly moisture transport,

and an Alberta Clipper storm track. While the composite cyclonic anomalies track

progressively farther to the north with decreasing precipitation amount, the intensity of

the anomalies is similar in the heavy and moderate composites; the distinguishing feature

in the heavy composite is a precursor downstream anticyclone.

Using a unique manual synoptic typing, we partition heavy events into five types.

Types A and B are related to upstream cyclones and strong synoptic-scale forcing for

ascent, although Type B cyclones are typically stronger and closer to the coast. Type C

and D are frontal events: Type C events are warm frontal, and feature a near-surface

temperature inversion, while Type D events are cold frontal and associated with the

largest amplitude synoptic-scale precursors of any type. Type E events are not associated

with synoptic or frontal forcing for ascent, and thus are deemed to be convective. In

Type E Montreal is located in an anomalously warm, humid, and unstable air mass

throughout. Types A and B are associated with the strongest forcing for ascent, while

Types C-E feature higher amounts of moisture and instability.

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Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Poster Presentation Abstract

March 9-10, 2013

Analysis of the Diabatic Influence on Downstream Ridging During the Tornado

Outbreak

25-28 April 2011

Samantha Basile

University at Albany, Albany, New York

An analysis of the impacts of diabatically generated latent heat release on

downstream ridge building during the tornado outbreak, 25-28 April 2011 is presented.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) 1

degree analyses as well as NCEP HPC generated maps are used in a case study analysis.

The analysis highlights the state of the synoptic environment across the Southwest

corridor and southern Atlantic coastal states, which lead to the initiation and maintenance

of convection over a six day period. The outflow associated with the persistent

convection resulted in potential vorticity (PV) destruction at upper levels. Investigated is

the process of advection of diabatically generated low PV values downstream and

resultant downstream ridge building. A 300 hPa longwave trough over the Midwestern

United States was characterized by two upper-level jetstreaks, both over 100kts,

associated with strong upper level forcing for ascent. A surface stationary front extending

from Texas to the Ohio Valley slowly progressed eastward was characterized by low

level forcing for ascent. A moist airmass remained in place over the areas ahead of the

frontal boundary. Cross sectional analysis of the surface frontal baroclinic zone showed

strong vertical motion ahead of a downward sloped isentropic surface, coincident with

anomalously low potential vorticity values around the tropopause, and again at midlevel

layers. Horizontal map analysis of the advection of potential vorticity by the layer

average wind, in the 400 to 200 hPa layer, reveals large negative values downstream of

convective cells during the outbreak period coincident with the amplification of ridging

over the northeast United States.

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38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Poster Presentation Abstract

March 9-10, 2013

Correlating the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation to

Central New York’s 2011-2012 Winter Weather

Marko J. Nikic

Geosciences Department, Hamilton College, Clinton, New York 13323

Adam Musyt

WKTV, Smith Hill Road, Utica, New York 13503

Cynthia R. Domack

Geosciences Department, Hamilton College, Clinton, New York 13323

The winter of 2011-2012 in central New York State was an unusually warm one

and many people were attributing the warm winter to climate change. This study showed

the warm winter weather could be explained by known weather patterns. Using linear

regression models it was found that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) had a

significant influence on winter temperatures in central New York. Positive correlation

coefficients showed that when NAO indices were above average the temperatures would

be above average. Positive correlations between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and winter

temperatures were also found. NAO and AO indices for December and November

accurately predicted warm 2011 temperatures for central New York. Additionally, a

binary logistic regression model yielded a positive correlation between average winter

temperatures and the winter NAO index. This model predicts the likelihood of an

oncoming “warm” winter. When run, the model predicted a “warm” winter for 2011-

2012 in central New York. From statistical analysis of central New York temperature

data, it was concluded that the NAO and the AO have significant impact on central New

York weather and that the warm winter weather of 2011-2012 can be partially explained

by these atmospheric indices.

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38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Poster Presentation Abstract

March 9-10, 2013

Classification of Snowfall Events in Oneonta, New York from 1992 – 2012.

David M. Loveless, Melissa L. Godek

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, State University of New York College at

Oneonta, Oneonta, New York, 13820-4015

Averaging nearly 70 inches of snowfall each winter over the past three decades,

Oneonta, NY is significantly impacted by seasonal snow events. Oneonta’s situation

between the much larger cities of Albany and Binghamton makes it an interesting

location to analyze snowfall, especially since daily snow records have been collected for

the city by the State University of New York College at Oneonta since 1982. The

geography of upstate NY allows for Oneonta to receive snowfall from a variety of storm

types including coastal storms, Colorado lows, and lake-effect storms. The goal of this

research is to examine daily snowfall records at Oneonta over the past decade in order to

identify the processes and storms that produce the most frequent and intense snowfall.

This information is useful for improving long-term and short-term winter forecasts in the

Central Leatherstocking region of New York State. Storms capable of producing daily

snowfall are manually identified using NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

weather map archives. Days with measurable snowfall are classified according to storm

type and the frequency, intensity and cause for snowfall is determined (e.g., snowfall

associated with localized frontal influences, pressure systems, or otherwise as the case

with lake-effect snows). Finally, the climate oscillations present at the time of significant

snowfall are assessed for associations with individual storm events. Results indicate that

seasonal snowfall is highly variable. The range of annual snowfall for the last decade

varies from approximately 29 – 106 inches. Lake-effect snowfall has been found to be

responsible for more than 50% of the days with measurable snowfall, but has rarely

created significant snowfall in the last decade.

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38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Poster Presentation Abstract

March 9-10, 2013

The IMPOWR Field Campaign over Coastal New England to Improve Forecasting

of Coastal Marine Environment in Operational Models

Matthew Sienkiewicz and Brian A. Colle

School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY

The winds, temperature, and moisture in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is

often difficult for operational models to predict given the relatively sparse observations

and that most model PBL parameterizations were developed over inland locations.

Coastal marine layer forecasts are important for the forecasting of severe storms and

wind energy resources in the highly populated coastal marine environment of the

Northeast U.S. (NEUS). Mesoscale models are known to have large biases in windspeeds

and temperatures at these lower levels over coastal waters. The goal of this project is to

evaluate the performance of six PBL schemes in the Weather Research Forecasting

(WRF-ARW) model version 3.4.1 in the coastal marine environment of the NEUS. This

study region, stretching from the south shore of Long Island to Georges Bank, is also an

ideal location for an offshore wind energy grid based on such factors as regional energy

demand, water depth, and available wind resource. What is unique about this IMPOWR

(Improving the Mapping and Prediction of Offshore Wind Resources;

http://dendrite.somas.stonybrook.edu/IMPOWR/impowr.html) study is that field data has

been collected using a Long-EZ aircraft and tower data over the water.

Verification of the WRF is done using a dataset of observations from the Cape

Wind meteorological tower in Nantucket Sound from 2003 to 2011, as well as Long-EZ

flights from late 2012 to early 2013. Preliminary results from a Long-EZ flight on 12

November 2012 showed that the models underestimated windspeeds and temperatures in

the lower marine boundary layer and overestimated them above 500 m. There will be a

more extensive field campaign in the summer of 2013 consisting of several high-

frequency instruments installed on the Air-Sea Interaction Tower (ASIT) south of

Martha’s Vineyard. The instrumentation will consist of sonic anemometers, temperature

and relative humidity sensors, and an optical wave gauge. This dataset will help construct

a full vertical profile of windspeed, temperature, and humidity from the surface to the top

of the marine boundary layer.

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38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Poster Presentation Abstract

March 9-10, 2013

An Air Mass Based Approach to the Establishment of Spring Season Synoptic Characteristics in

the Northeast United States

Rebecca Zander, Andrew Messina and Melissa Godek

SUNY-Oneonta

The spring season is indicative of marked meteorological, ecological, and biological changes

across the Northeast United States. The onset of spring coincides with distinct meteorological

phenomena including an increase in severe weather events and snow meltwaters that can cause localized

flooding and other costly damages. Increasing and variable springtime temperatures also influence

Northeast tourist operations and agricultural productivity. Even with the vested interest of industry in the

season and public awareness of the dynamic characteristics of spring, the definition of spring remains

somewhat arbitrary. The primary goal of this research is to obtain a synoptic meteorological definition

of the spring season through an assessment of air mass frequency over the past 60 years. A secondary

goal examines the validity of recent speculations that the onset and termination of spring has changed in

recent decades, particularly since 1975. The Spatial Synoptic Classification is utilized to define daily air

masses over the region. Annual and seasonal baseline frequencies are identified and their differences are

acquired to characterize the season. Seasonal frequency departures of the early and late segments of the

period of record around 1975 are calculated and examined for practical and statistical significance. The

daily boundaries of early and late spring are then isolated and frequencies are obtained for these periods.

Boundary frequencies are assessed across the period of record to identify important changes in the

season’s initiation and termination through time. Results indicate that the Northeast spring season is

dominated by dry air masses, mainly the Dry Moderate and Dry Polar types. Significant differences in

seasonal air mass frequency are also observed through time. Prior to 1975, higher frequencies of polar

air mass types are detected while after 1975 there is an increase in the frequencies of both moderate and

tropical types. This finding is also identified for the onset of spring. Late spring frequencies are similar

but with more variability in all moist variety air mass frequencies. These findings indicate that, from a

synoptic perspective, springs in the Northeast can be defined by dry air mass conditions through time

but modern springs are also warmer than those of past decades and the initiation of the season is likely

arriving earlier. The end of the Northeast spring season may also be represented by more variable day-

to-day air mass conditions in modern times than detected in past decades.

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38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Poster Presentation Abstract

March 9-10, 2013

Assessing the Impact of Precipitation Events on Major League Baseball

GameDelays and Cancellations in Open Air Stadiums

.

Thomas King and Dr. Melissa Godek

SUNY Oneonta

Major League Baseball is a multi-million dollar industry that is ever changing to

make the most of profits. In recent years, this has included attempts to reduce game

cancellations and delays due to precipitation by replacing open-air stadiums

(those permanently left open to the environment) across the country with closed top

venues. Fans can also lose money on game postponements and delays with ticket

purchases to games that are not played or moved. Twenty-four open-air stadiums still

exist across the United States and an assessment of the influence of precipitation on game

cancellations and delays has never been made available to the public. Therefore, this

analysis examines the impact of rainfall on Major League Baseball games from 2000 to

2011. Daily precipitation data from ASOS, CoCoRaHS, and the GHCN networks are

collected for locations near stadiums and days with both recorded precipitation and

scheduled Major League Baseball games are assessed. This research examines all games

played in an open air stadium or games that were scheduled to be played in an open-air

stadium but were postponed or canceled. These days are referred to as game-rain days.

Total precipitation thresholds are identified to examine the amount of rainfall required to

impact games. This presentation presents preliminary results of the ongoing assessment

that indicate precipitation occurred on approximately one-third of all days with games.

The majority of game days received less than 0.25". In addition, precipitation impacts

Major League Baseball teams in the eastern United States more than in the Central Plains

or western states, with 32 - 49%, 21 - 25%, and less than 10% of game-rain days

identified. Game cancellations are also identified on days without recorded precipitation

which needs further exploration.

56

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Poster Presentation Abstract

March 9-10, 2013

Correlating the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation to

Central New York’s 2011-2012 Winter Weather

Marko J. Nikic

Geosciences Department, Hamilton College, Clinton, New York 13323

Adam Musyt

WKTV, Smith Hill Road, Utica, New York 13503

Cynthia R. Domack

Geosciences Department, Hamilton College, Clinton, New York 13323

The winter of 2011-2012 in central New York State was an unusually warm one

and many people were attributing the warm winter to climate change. This study showed

the warm winter weather could be explained by known weather patterns. Using linear

regression models it was found that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) had a

significant influence on winter temperatures in central New York. Positive correlation

coefficients showed that when NAO indices were above average the temperatures would

be above average. Positive correlations between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and winter

temperatures were also found. NAO and AO indices for December and November

accurately predicted warm 2011 temperatures for central New York. Additionally, a

binary logistic regression model yielded a positive correlation between average winter

temperatures and the winter NAO index. This model predicts the likelihood of an

oncoming “warm” winter. When run, the model predicted a “warm” winter for 2011-

2012 in central New York. From statistical analysis of central New York temperature

data, it was concluded that the NAO and the AO have significant impact on central New

York weather and that the warm winter weather of 2011-2012 can be partially explained

by these atmospheric indices.

57

38th

Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Poster Presentation Abstract

March 9-10, 2013

The Effect of Teleconnections on Tornado Climatology in the Central

and Southern United States

Michael Stahlman, Alfred Stamm

The purpose of this study is to examine the global conditions under which more severe

tornadoes occur by looking at teleconnections. Because teleconnections appear valuable

in terms of predicting significant cold outbreaks and snowstorms in the winter, the same

ideology was applied to significant tornadoes and tornado outbreaks during the spring

and summer months. This study examined the relationship between the AO, NAO, and

PNA indices to the number of tornadoes F2 or greater over the period from 1950 to 2006.

A great deal of research has given light to what is termed a "population bias" in the

tornado climatology dataset, in that the number of tornado reports has been increasing

throughout the years, many of them being in the F0 or F1 category. For this reason, only

tornadoes that were designated a rating of F2 or greater were considered. Since tornadoes

in the south climatologically appear earlier in the year than in the central United States,

these regions were examined separately. Each month in the period from March to June

was examined separately, as well, due to the fact that weather conditions change

significantly over that time frame. Correlations between the indices and the number of

tornado reports for each region were computed, along with the significance of their

correlations in the form of a t-test. Comparisons of these t-test values were analyzed in

order to ascertain which indices had the greatest impact on tornado reports for a given

region.

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Annual Northeastern Storm Conference

Notes