Upload
vanhanh
View
232
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Timberland Investment Overview:
Latin America and the Rest of the World
Bob Flynn
Director, International Timber, RISI
Latin American Timberlands Investment Conference, Rio de Janeiro
August 25-26, 2014
Agenda
• Global Focus: Based on RISI’s International Timberland
Ownership and Investment Database, covering 760
companies in 74 countries, a total of 100 million hectares of
forest ownership (approximate value >US$370 billion)
• Latin America Focus: Based on RISI’s Latin American
Plantation Forests: Outlook for Timber Supply and
Markets
Timberland investment is
more concentrated by
company, and more
geographically diverse, than
we previously thought
The Top 30 TIMOs in the world have a combined
US$57 billion in assets under management. But the
top 5 companies account for 54% of the total, and
the top 10 have 77%
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Bill
ion
US
Do
llars
Top 30 TIMOs, Assets Under Management
This does not
include direct
investment by
pension funds, or
investment in
Timber REITs.
A proper accounting of institutional investment
reveals that Europe, Latin America and Oceania have
attracted similar levels of timberland investment
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Africa
Asia
Europe*
Latin America
North America**
Oceania
REIT/Other
TIMO
Million Acres
All of the 10 largest TIMOs have forest
assets outside of North America; 8 have
forest in Latin America, 6 in Oceania
TIMO North
America
Latin
America
Oceania Africa Asia Europe
Hancock Timber X X X
Campbell Global X X
RMS X X X
FIA X X
Brookfield X X
Global Forest Partners X X X X
BTG Pactual X X X X
New Forests X X
The Forestland Group X X
GMO X X X
Top Ten TIMOs and Region of Investment
40% of the Top 30 TIMOs are based outside of
North America; 10% are based in Brazil, including
BTG Pactual, Floresteca and Copa Investimentos
North America60%
Latin America10%
Europe23%
Oceania4%
Asia3%
11 of the Top 30 TIMOs have investment in Brazil
(compared with 6 in Australia, 5 in New Zealand)
Brazil Uruguay Chile Colombia Costa Rica Panama Guatemala Belize
Hancock Timber X X
RMS X
FIA X
Brookfield X
Global Forest Partners X X X X X
BTG Pactual X X
The Forestland Group X X X
GMO X X X X X
Floresteca X
Greenwood Resources X
The Forest Company X X
Copa Investimentos X
Aquila Wald Invest X
Global Environment Fund X
Top 30 Global TIMOs, Investment in Latin America
But TIMOs play a smaller role in Latin
America than in some other regions
Ten Largest Private Forest Owners by Type and by Region, 2014
Type North
America
Latin
America
Oceania Africa Asia Europe
TIMO 6 2 7 2 0 2
REIT 3 0 0 0 0 0
Other Listed 0 8 1 2 2 3
Private 1 0 1 6 8 5
Tribal 0 0 1 0 0 0
Three of the top 10 countries for timberland
investment are in Latin America
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Ownership of Forest by Financial Institutions by Country, 2014 Thousand Acres
Note: #1 is USA,
#2 is Canada,
not shown in
chart
82% of “TIMO” investment in forest in Latin
America is in just 3 countries
Brazil54%
Colombia1%
Chile9%
Costa Rica1%
Argentina4%
Ecuador1%
Guatemala1%
Belize7%
Nicaragua1%
Panama1%
Uruguay19%
Paraguay1%
TIMO Ownership in Latin America, 2014
A key attraction for institutional investors is
having large-scale forests available for
acquisition
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Latin America: Number of Forest Ownerships Greater Than 10,000 ha in Size, 2013
There are approximately 3.0 million hectares of
foreign owned plantation forests in L. America
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Forest Industry FInancial Investors
Th
ou
sa
nd
He
cta
res
Foreign Ownership of South American Plantation Forests, by Forest Industry and Timberland Investors
2009
2014
55% of the foreign-owned plantations are in
Brazil, 19% in Uruguay
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Argentina Brazil Chile Uruguay Other S. Am. Cen. America
Tho
usa
nd
He
ctar
es
Foreign Ownership of Forest in Latin America, 2014
TIMO
Forest Industry
One third of Latin American plantations
owned by foreign forest products companies
is in Chilean hands
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Uruguay Venezuela Other
Th
ou
sa
nd
He
cta
res
Foreign Investment in South American Plantation Forests by Forest Industry, 2014
Chilean Overseas
Target species vary by region
Region Primary Target Species
North America Loblolly pine, Douglas-fir, other conifers, mixed hardwoods
Latin America Eucalyptus (various species), loblolly pine, radiata pine, teak
Europe Mixed northern conifers, poplar
Oceania Radiata pine, E. globulus , E. nitens
Asia Acacia, teak, rubberwood
Africa Eucalyptus, pine, teak, rubberwood
Primary Species of Interest for Timberland Investors
Globally, investment in eucalyptus and other
fast-growing hardwoods is surging, but pine
is left behind
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2000 2012
Th
ou
sa
nd
Ac
res
Eucalyptus and Pine Plantation Area in Brazil, Chile, Australia and New Zealand
Eucalyptus
Pine
India has increasingly been relying on Latin
America for teak log imports, and this is
likely to increase in the future
0
50
100
150
200
250
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Th
ou
sa
nd
Cu
bic
Me
ters
India: Teak Log Imports from Latin America
Central America
South America
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
US$
Mill
ion
India: Teak Imports from Latin America, 2013
Lumber
Logs
Most of India’s teak imports
are in log form, but from
Brazil is processed/semi-
processed products
Latin American Timberland Investment:
Significant stories in 2013/2014
• BTG
• Fibria/Brookfield
• Interest in new geographies, e.g. Colombia
and now also Paraguay
• China’s impact
• Biomass
BTG Pactual: Evolution of the TIMO sector
• Regions Timberlands Group(formerly RMK) was one
of the long-term major TIMOs, based in Atlanta.
• Like many North American TIMOs, Regions had
been investing in Latin America for several years, in
Uruguay and Brazil
• In September 2013, BTG Pactual acquired Regions,
marking the biggest move by a Latin American bank
in the timberland investment space.
Fibria and Brookfield – why this matters…
• On the seller side --- while some pulp companies in Latin America had previously sold forest (including Klabin, Fibria, Arauco, etc.) these were always either tied to the sale of an existing pulp mill, or were not a core resource for the mill. This time it’s different!
• On the buyer side --- while Brookfield is “kind of a Brazilian company” (in Brazil for more than 100 years), this demonstrates a flexibility in structuring a timberlands deal that “fits” the Latin American situation particularly, and may open up other possibilities!
Colombia’s growing market for forest
products has caught the eye of global
timberland investors
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Millio
n U
S D
olla
rs
Colombia: Imports of Forest Products, 2000-2014F
Wood Products
Pulp/Recovered Paper
Paper
24
Paraguay is another company that is rapidly
opening up for plantation development by
outside investors
Silvipar project in southern
Paraguay – 3 days old
Silvipar project at
200 days
China is becoming an increasingly important
market for Brazilian pulp --- will this be
followed by Chinese investment?
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F
Tho
usa
nd
To
nn
es
China: Imports of BHKP from Brazil
Brazil has a larger area of plantations dedicated to
producing wood for biomass energy than the rest
of the world combined
• Consumption of eucalyptus for energy
in Brazil is larger than consumption
for pulp production. In 2012, 23
million m³ of eucalyptus was used to
produce charcoal, primarily for the
steel industry (processing iron ore
into pig iron). An additional 37 million
m³ of eucalyptus was used as
industrial fuelwood (for the agriculture
industry, ceramics, etc.).
• In other Latin American countries we
are also seeing tree plantations for
biomass energy becoming a more
important factor.
0
8
16
24
32
40
48
56
64
Mil
lio
n C
ub
ic M
ete
rs
Eucalyptus Consumption in Brazil, 2012
Industrial Fuelwood
Charcoal
Pulp
Source: ABRAF
7th International Woodchip &Woodpellet Trade
Conference Nov 3-4 & Field Trip Nov 5-7 2014
• Nov 6: CMPC Plantations • Nursery & Genetics
• Radiata pine
• Eucalyptus nitens
• Eucalyptus globulus
• From planting through harvesting
• Nov 7 morning: Woodchipping and woodchip
export loading operations
• Nov 5: Arauco Nueva Aldea Industrial Complex
Register on-line:
www.woodfibreconference.com
Mark your calendars: 2015 New York City
Forest Investment Conference
• 2nd Annual RISI/DANA
event in NYC, March 31 &
April 1, 2015
• Highlights:
• Outlook for all forest
products markets by
RISI economists
• Focus on pension
funds and other
institutional investors
• Regional review of
global timberland
investments
Conference web page:
http://events.risiinfo.com/investment-
conference/
This presentation is based on RISI’s January 2014
publication Latin American Plantation Forests: Outlook for
Timber Supply and Markets and RISI’s August 2014
publication International Timberland Ownership and
Investment Database
www.risi.com/LAtimber
www.risi.com/timberland
Contact: Bob Flynn
Email: [email protected]
Thank you for your attention!
29