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Overview to Global Activities on Biofuels – Relevance for New Zealand
Paul Bennett, Science Leader Clean Technologies
Content
• Current Status
• Why Biofuels?
• Feedstock and Land Availability
• US and European activity
• Lignocellulosic Biofuels
• What is Scion doing?
Biofuels Definition
• Biofuels are fuels derived from biomass – any matter derived from plants or
animals
• Biofuels with limited compatibility with current fossil-fuelled engines
Ethanol: fermentation from starch/cane sugar (1st generation) or lignocellulosic feedstocks
(cellulosic ethanol)
Biodiesel: diesel replacement produced by transesterification of fats/oils
• Drop-in biofuels: Liquid bio-hydrocarbons functionally equivalent to petroleum fuels (eg from
pyrolysis or gasification/FT) , fully compatible with existing petroleum infrastructure and used in a
range of applications (Road, Rail, Marine and Aviation)
Renewable diesel/jet: A diesel/jet replacement produced by hydrotreating fats/oils
CURRENT STATUS
Global Biofuels Production (Million tonne oil equivalent)
Source: BP Statistical Energy Review 2016
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
billion litres
2015 Biofuels production
US Brazil Germany France China Thailand Indonesia
What type and where?
Source: BP Statistical Energy Review 2016
Biofuels Use – IEA Roadmap 201127% of total transport fuels by 2050, dominated by advanced technologies
Transport fuels
Product Petrol Diesel Jet fuel Marine fuel
Key users Retail consumers Transport,
manufacturing,
construction,
Agriculture
Airlines Freight, fishing,
ferry, cruise lines
Key non-price
demand drivers
• Population growth
•Changing consumer
demand
• Take-up of hybrid/EVs
• Vehicle fuel efficiency
• Economic growth
(GDP)
• Increased diesel
penetration into car
fleet
• Vehicle fuel
efficiency
• Economic growth (GDP)
• Airline industry growth
(carbon neutral growth
from 2020)
• Aircraft fuel efficiency
• Industry sector
growth
• Environmental
regulations (Air
Quality)
• Ship fuel
efficiency
Biofuels activity 1st generation and LC
ethanol in use
1st generation and
renewable biofuels in
use
Test flights carried out,.
Extensive fuel quality
testing/approval required
(5 production routes now
approved)
Economically challenged
Limited biodiesel in
use. (Cheaper than
installing de-SOx
plant on board
WHY BIOFUELS
Drivers for International Biofuel Growth
Government
Intervention
Mechanisms
Mandates
Incentives
Obligations
• Europe
• COP21Climate Change
• Brazil
• China
• Europe
Energy security/cost
Rural Economic
Development
• US
• Brazil
Climate ChangeIPCC AR5 - 2014
Human influence on the climate system is clear,
and recent anthropogenic emissions of
greenhouse gases are the highest in history.
Recent climate changes have had widespread
impacts on human and natural systems.
COP 21 –Paris Agreement
Members promised to reduce their carbon output
"as soon as possible" and to do their best to
keep global warming "to well below 2 degrees C"
Climate Action Tracker
With 158 climate pledges now submitted to the
UN, accounting for 94% of global emissions, the
Climate Action Tracker confirmed this would
result in around 2.7°C of warming in 2100 – if all
governments met their pledge
Impacts of Climate Change
• New Zealand climate is changing.
• Warming is projected to continue through the 21st century along with other changes in climate.
• Annual average rainfall is expected to decrease in the northeast South Island and northern and eastern North Island, and to increase in other parts of New Zealand.
• Drought frequency could double or triple in eastern and northern New Zealand by 2040, and fire weather is projected to increase in many parts of New Zealand.
• Regional sea level rise will very likely exceed the historical rate (1971–2010), consistent with global mean trends.
NZ GHG Emissions - Where’s the 30% reduction going to come from?
NZ Energy Consumption – Mitigation Options
Royal Society Review - Mitigation Options April 2016
….there is one main highway to proceed towards net zero emissions;
1. Implement all feasible means of avoiding the burning of fossil fuels,
2. Compensate for unavoidable emissions through afforestation
3. In the longer, compensate with bioenergy coupled with CCS
This includes displacing the use of coal, oil and gas with renewable heat, renewable electricity and biofuels, and possibly green hydrogen. A strong focus on reducing demand and increasing efficiency is an imperative.
Energy Security/Price
Excess Consumption
1973 oil crisis
Oil embargo
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2500
2700
2900
3100
3300
3500
3700
3900
4100
4300
4500
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Cru
de
oil
20
15
$/b
bl
Pro
du
ctio
n M
illio
n t
on
nes
Production Mte Consumption Mte Pricing (2015 US$)
1979 Oil crisisIranian Revolution
$93/bbl
Source: BP Statistical Energy Review 2016
NZ Energy Security
Consumer energy, % NZ Oil production only 24%total and in decline
Rural Economic Development – US example 2012
>200 ethanol plants producing 13.1 billion litres
Annual benefits• GDP impact US$43.4 billion (US$3.31/litre)
• 383,260 direct and indirect jobs (1 job per 34,000 litres)
Source: Cardno Entrix
Benefits of Biofuels in New Zealand
Gain in 2040 over BAU scenario
National GDP $6.1 B + 1.2%
Household consumption $2.6 B + 0.9%
Export volumes $2.2 B + 1.5%
Trade balance $1.9 B + 0.2% of GDP
Employment 27,000 + 1.1%
GHG reduction CO2-e 11 M tonnes
Source: Nana et al. Preliminary analysis of the economic impact of the New Zealand Bioenergy Strategy (2011)
[http://www.bioenergy.org.nz/documents/Homepage/BERL-report-to-BANZ-Preliminary-EIA-of-NZBioenergy-Strategy.pdf]
Macro-economic impact of NZ Bioenergy Strategy (30% transport biofuels)
NZ$2.6/litre
33,800 litres/job
FEEDSTOCK AND LAND AVAILABILITY
Feedstock
• Currently food crops dominant
Sugar cane, corn, wheat, cassava
Rapeseed/canola, soy, palm, coconut
• 2nd Generation (or LC) legislation
US RFS2 and EU (cap on biofuels from food crops)
Residues – bagasse, straw, sawdust
Energy crops – SRC willow, miscanthus, energy grasses, woody biomass
Wastes - MSW
Global Feedstock Availability – Food vs FuelImprovements in Crop yields, use of underutilised land, and food waste (33%)
Source: IEA Bioenergy 2105
Between 385 – 472 Mha could
produce up to 2 billion tonnes of
biomass
Biomass Availability
Residues from existing forestry and wood processing as a catalyst to grow bioenergy
Residues from existing operations could provide 46 PJ
per year (66 PJ by 2030) of bioenergy
New Value Chains need to developed
New or adapted conversion technologies, supportive policy
landscape, de-risked commercial investment
New Dedicated Energy Forestry to drive capacity and value
generation
New planting regimes, eg stock ratios, New species, modified
species, high value co-products.
5Million ha of underutilised land. Water availability not an
issue
Rural Economic development
- 1.8 M ha of new forest by 2035- Process 86,000 odt/day wood- Yields 6 B litres/y of transport fuel
- 60% of est. transport fuel needs
Scenario 1.8
New Zealand’s large-scale biofuel opportunity
EUROPEAN AND US LEGISLATION
Example: Decarbonising the European Transport sector
Source: DBFZ 2015
EU-28 GHG Emissions from Transport
Source: DBFZ 2015
US Renewable Fuel Standard (2) – Not all biofuels are equal!
Type examples GHG benefit
Renewable Corn ethanol from modern (post
2007) facility (natural gas fired)
20%
Advanced Eg Sugar cane 50%
Biomass-derived diesel Biodiesel from soy oil and
renewable diesel from waste oils,
fats and greases
50%
Cellulosic biofuels
(ethanol and diesel)
Eg corn stover, wheat straw,
energy grasses
60%
Source: US EPA
US Renewable Fuel Standard (2) Targets
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Bill
ion
litr
es p
a
Cellulosic Biodiesel Advanced Conventional
February 2010
2016
Source: US EPA
RFS2 - How does it work?
• Obligated parties can carry over unused RINs between compliance years. They may carry a compliance deficit
into the next year. This deficit must be made up the following year.
• Penalties over US$10,000,000 have been applied for non-compliance.
Refiners and imports are
obligated to delivery a certain
amount of biofuel
Biofuel producer receive RIN
for every litre produced.
Biofuel trade + RIN
Market
LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOFUELS
Lignocellulosic Biofuel plants
US
Abengao 95 Ml/yr
Dupont 115 Ml/yr
POET-DSM 75 Ml/yr
Ineos Bio 30 Ml/yr
Brazil
Raizen 40 Ml/yr
GranBio 85 Ml/yr
Italy
Beta Renewables 75 Ml/yr
Dupont – Nevada, Iowa
• 115 Million litres cellulosic ethanol
• 375,000 odt corn stover (stalks,
leaves and cobs)
• 500 farmers within 50 km radius
• 77,000 ha of farmland
Economics
Source: International Energy Agency 2011
Advanced (2G) biofuels become competitive at between US$100-$120/bbl oil, or with a carbon price in excess of US$50/te.
Further, advancements in production technology will make biofuels competitive at US$50-$70/bbl
70% Reduction in production costs - Brazil
Source: van den Wall Bake JD et al. Biomass Bioenergy 2009, 33:644-658.
Production cost
Delivered feedstock
WHAT NEXT FOR NEW ZEALAND?
Where do we need to go? How do we get there? Roadmap?
Views on Biofuels in NZQualitative Assessment – 26 Stakeholder interviews
Biofuels cannot be automatically assumed to be a positive for social acceptance.
Diverse views follow whether liq. biofuels will substitute jet, diesel or marine industries.
No clear main enablers are standing out at the moment.
Economics is agreed to be the main hurdle followed by technology.
Government is seen as a follower - Industry needs to drive initiatives and prove their feasibility.
Stakeholders were quite keen to work systematically through a plausible scenario.
SCION’S ACTIVITY
Bioenergy Programme – Key Areas of Activity
Feedstock
Feedstock
Feedstock
Feedstock
Feedstock
Logistics & Scale
Logistics & Scale
Logistics & Scale
Conversion Technology
Conversion Technology
Conversion Technology
Conversion Technology
Fuel Type & Demand
Fuel Type & Demand
Fuel Type & Demand
Fuel Type & Demand
Policy / Carbon price / Stakeholder
External environment / Exchange rate / Oil price
Time / Space / NZ-specific
Bes
t fo
r N
ew Z
eala
ndO
pti
mum
pat
hway
s (C
ost
/ G
HG
)In
vest
men
t d
e-ri
sk
NZLBISoftwoodSugar
Lignin
Biofuels
Co-products
Chemical feedstocks
New uses for forest biomass and waste:a competitive sugar platform for chemicals and energy
Scion’s Fast Pyrolysis Plant
1 kg/h feedstock
Fluidised bed reactor
Mass balance closure > 95 wt.%
Good product characterisation
Possibility to carry out catalytic pyrolysis
Bio-oil production and extractable chemicals
Stakeholder Engagement – Liquid Biofuel RoadmapScion core-funded programme but stakeholder alignment critical
Government Commercial Others
Conclusions
• Biofuels are currently playing a key role around the world in
addressing local strategic priorities of; Climate change
Energy Security
Rural economic development
• Shift from food derived biofuels towards waste or non-competing
crops
• Lignocellulosic biofuels are becoming commercial, but need; High crude prices
Higher carbon prices
Further technology development to lower costs
Valorisation of co-products
