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  1. 1. California and distributed PV GW Solar Institute Third Annual Symposium Bill Powers, P.E., Powers Engineering April 26, 2011 1
  2. 2. John Geesman, California Energy Commissioner, 2007source: California Energy Circuit, State Sees DG Providing 25% Peak Power, May 11, 2007.Theres an ongoing schizophrenia in state policybetween what we say we want to do and whatwe actually allow to happen. 2
  3. 3. What is Californias plan? Energy Action Plan Energy Action Plan Loading Order: Energy efficiency & demand response(net zero energy buildings EE/rooftop PV) Renewable energy Combined Heat & Power - CHP Conventional gas-fired generation Transmission as needed Challenges 1) inadequate regulatory oversight,2) energy efficiency and distributed generationrun counter to conventional utility business model3
  4. 4. How much rooftop PV does California need to meet 2020net zero energy targets for existing buildings? ~15,000 MWCPUC, California Long-Term Strategic Energy Efficiency Plan, January 2011 update Target: 25% of existing residential reaches 70% reductionby 2020 Assume 30% reduction with EE, 40% with PV Residential rooftop PV requirement = 4,800 MW Target: 50% of existing commercial reaches net zeroenergy by 2030 [assume 25% reach net zero by 2020] Assume 30% reduction with EE, 70% with PV Commercial rooftop PV requirement = 9,800 MW Total 2020 residential/commercial rooftop PV = 14,600 MW 4
  5. 5. California Gov. Jerry Brown Clean Energy JobsPlan local focus 12,000 MW of local renewable power by 2020,out of 20,000 MW target Feed-in tariff for renewables under 20 MW 4,000 MW of new combined heat & power (can be fueled with biogas or biomethane)5
  6. 6. Distributed PV in California the pace isacceleratingPV Project Underway Capacity Completion (MW)dateCalifornia Solar Initiative3,000 2016Utility distributed PV 1,100 2014SB 32 feed-in tariff7502014CPUC renewable auction 1,000 2014mechanismSMUD feed-in tariff 1002012Total committed DG PV ~6,0006
  7. 7. What is the California IOU renewable energy plan?CPUC, 33% RPS Implementation Analysis Preliminary Results, June 2009, p. 87.J. Firooz, Transmission in Short Supply or Do IOUs Want More Profits?, Natural Gas & Electricity Journal, July 2010.graphic: Black & Veatch and E3, Summary of PV Potential Assessment in RETI and the 33% Implementation Analysis,Re-DEC Working Group Meeting, December 9, 2009, p. 10. Original plan was 10,000 MW oflarge-scale, remote solar. Priority emphasis on new, highprofit (12% ROI) transmission. Up to $15 billion in newtransmission additions inCalifornia, justified on renewableenergy, if utility plans realized. Now up to 3,000 MW ofdistributed PV, beyond 3,000 MWin California Solar Initiative, alsoin the pipeline: IOU-owned PV,Renewable Auction Mechanism,SB 32 FIT. 7
  8. 8. 10,000+ MW Path 46, passing thru Mojave and Colorado deserts,has lightest load in West. However, access is uncertain due toexisting proprietary long-term capacity contracts.Sources: 2005 CEC Strategic Transmission Investment Study; June 2010 WECC Path Utilization Study Part of TEPPC 2009 Annual Report.8
  9. 9. Achilles heel of remote central station generation,whether solar or wind - cost of new transmissionsources: 1) RPS Calculator, 2) J. Firooz, P.E., CAISO: How its transmission planning process has lost sight of the publics interest,prepared for UCAN, April 15, 2010.California Public Utilities Commission calculated $34/MWh transmission cost adder in June 2009 for remote renewable generation.CPUC assumed renewable generation financed over 20 yr, transmission over 40 yr.Cost adder is $46/MWh if generation and transmission financed over same 20 yr period (apples-to-apples).9
  10. 10. Cost of energy for solar and wind Californiaagency analysessource: Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative, RETI Phase 2B Final Report, May 2010, Tables 4-5, 4-7, 4-8, CPUC 2010 LTPPproceeding, Long-Term Renewable Resource Planning Standards, Attachment 1, Table 1, June 2010.TechnologyCapital costCapacityCapacity Cost of factorenergy($)(MW) (%) ($/MWh)Solar thermal, 5,350 5,550 200 24 202 dry-cooled Fixed thin-film PV3,600 4,00020 24 138Tracking 4,000 5,00020 27 135polysilicon PV Onshore wind 2,371utility-scale 3395 10
  11. 11. Germany installs residential PV at $4/Wdc, lowercost than utility-scale solar thermalsource: C. Landen Sovella AG, Complexity cost and economies of scale: Why German residential PV costs 25% less than US,presented at Solar Power International, October 2010.11
  12. 12. Distributed PV as reliable as peaking gas turbine atsummer peak in Californiasource: B. Powers, Bay Area Smart Energy 2020, to be released in May 2011.Top 100 hours of summer peak load in PG&E territory in 2007.Correlated to hour-by-hour cloud cover at Oakland and San Jose airports.Correlated to hour-by-hour global irradiance for same sites.Solar resource > 95% available during all peak hours.One anomalous data point due to scattered clouds at airports when rest of Bay Area nearly cloud free (see GOES satellite images at right, 3 pm and 4 pm, July 5, 2007). 12
  13. 13. Utilities wind power must be backed-up bycombustion turbines World without RPS requirements utilities buildcombustion turbines to meet rising peak load. World with RPS requirements utilities build combustionturbines, and wind turbines, and new transmission tomeet rising peak load. Or central station solar thermal or solar PV, and newtransmission. Or distributed solar PV (ideally with limited 2 to 3 hrenergy storage), and no new transmission.13
  14. 14. Germany the gold standardsource of 7,400 MWdc in 2010: Renewable Energy World, New Record for German Renewable Energy in 2010, Germany , March 25, 2011.source of 50,000 MW distributed PV projected by 2020: DENA Grid Study II Integration of Renewable Energy Sources in the German PowerSupply System from 2015 2020 with an Outlook to 2025, April 2011.7,400 MWdc distributed PV installed in 2010 60 percent less than 100 kW 80 percent less than 1 MW1,550 MWac of wind installed in 201050,000 MW distributed PV projected for 2020Framework for success: feed-in tariff 14
  15. 15. April 20th 2011, Germany PV provides 20% of countrys electricity at mid-day German source, EEX Transparency Platform: Jan. 1, 2011: wind, 27,000 MWac solar PV, 16,500 MWdcGraphic: yellow = PV green = wind gray = conventional15
  16. 16. April 20th 2011, Germany PV provides 20% ofcountrys electricity at mid-day, wind < 1%German source, EEX Transparency Platform: graphic PV production, > 12,000 MW at mid- day, weather conditions clear to partly cloudyBottom graphic wind production, ranging from 2,400 MW at midnight to 400 MW at noon 16
  17. 17. Western Interconnect 2010 loads a bit higher than Germanloads: min 73,000 MW, max ~150,000 MWBlack & Veatch, Need for Renewables and Gas Fired Generation in WECC - Wyoming Infrastructure Authority Board Meeting, Jan 25, 2010.17
  18. 18. Status of utility-scale desert solar on public lands lawsuits, cancellations, and uncertainty Solar project TechnologyMWStatusIvanpahPower tower 370 lawsuit BlytheSolar trough1,000 lawsuit CalicoDish stirling 663cancelledDesert SunlightPV550 lawsuit Lucerne ValleyPV 45 lawsuit Palen Solar trough500 lawsuit Imperial Valley Dish stirling 709cancelledGenesisSolar trough250 lawsuitRidgecrest Solar trough250cancelled 18
  19. 19. Problem ARRA projects are going on undeveloped publiclands, not retired ag lands or mining/military brownfieldssource of photos: B. Powers and Solar Done Right website: 19
  20. 20. 1,000 MW Solar Millenium Blythe Solar disturbed agland alternative is feasible, ARRA deadline is hurdleSept 2010 CEC Decision: Mesa Alternative would include a 1,000 MW solar facility on three non- contiguous areas totaling approximately 6,200 acres.Blythe Mesa Alternative is potentially feasible and meets all but one of the project objectives.Private parcel acquisition would likely not occur quickly enough to complete permitting in 2010 to qualify for ARRA funding.20
  21. 21. 1,000 MW Solar Millenium Blythe Solar will disturb 7,000acres of currently undisturbed public land - nearly size of DCsources: photo of Washington, DC Google Earth; 7,000 acres of disturbed land - California Energy Commission, Blythe Solar Projectwebpage: 21
  22. 22. Mojave Solar Development Zone proposal, April 2007 SolarMillenium suggests brownfields, anticipates siting challengesource: Solar Millenium public comment, April 17, 2007 IEPR CEC Workshop, Renewable Transmission, Sacramento. See: 22
  23. 23. 550 MW Desert Sunlight in shadow of Joshua TreeNational Park too big and too closeAugust 2010 BLM DEIS: 2010 CEC Decision: Project site surrounded on three sides by Joshua Tree NP Disturbed agricultural land nearby in Desert Center (photo) Large project not appropriate on border of national park23
  24. 24. Recommended guidance to Department ofInterior for use in prioritizing 2011 projectssource: California Desert & Renewable Energy Working Group, Recommendations to Secretary

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