BANGALORE PLATFORM

Launched by

Sagar DharaHyderabad

Organised by

Centre for Education and DocumentationBangalore

Hosted by

Centre for Internet & SocietyBangalore

Human interference with the Carbon cycle: People need to recover their environments and energy sources

Sagar Dhara

Cerana Foundation

“Mujhe kheti karna hai, bartan nahi manjna”

|— C —

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Carbon is the Bramha, Vishnu and Shiva of lifeCarbon forms complex molecules

ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONS HAVE HELPED EARTH,THE FRAGILE MIRACLE, TO SUPPORTS LIFE

CO2 % N % O2 % Temp (oC)

• Venus 96.0 3.5 <0.01 477• Mars 96.5 <1.8 <0.01 -53 • Earth without life 98.0 1.9 trace 290• Earth with life 0.03 78 21 13

• Micro-flora developed the ability the ability to make energy-rich carbohydrates, through photosynthesis, simultaneously releasing oxygen.

• Atmospheric carbon dioxide was removed and deposited as chalk on the ocean floor, cooling earth.

• Earth is unique, 100 km beneath our feet it is 3,000oC and 30 km above, it is too cold to survive. Life exists in this narrow band.

• Sun’s energy helped make this miracle.

Carbon cycleCarbon fluxes 1990s 2000-05

• Net land to atmosphere carbon flux (GtC/Yr) -1.0 ± 0.6 -0.9 ± 0.6• Net ocean to atmosphere C flux (GtC/Yr) -2.2 ± 0.4 -2.2 ± 0.5• Net land + ocean to atmosphere C flux (GtC) -3.2 ± 0.5 -3.1 ± 0.5• Emissions—fossil fuels + cement (GtC/Yr) 6.4 ± 0.4 7.2 ± 0.3

Active Carbon Pool:

Carbon is always moving between the forests, atmosphere and oceans

The overall amount in all three carbon stores together does not increase

Fossil Carbon Pool:

Carbon is locked away and does naturally not come in contact with the atmosphere

Fossil carbon is stored permanently in coal, oil and gas UNLESS humans mine coal, extract oil & gas

Once released, it will not move back into the fossil carbon pool for millennia – the time it takes for fossil carbon to be created

Forests, Soil, other VegetationOceans

Fossil Fuels:

Oil Coal Gas

3 Issues1. Climate change

Till about 500 years ago, the main stay energy source was a combination of human/ animal power and wood

2. Looming energy shortage

Fossil fuel dependence began ~500 years ago. Coal was first used in 14th century England , then elsewhere.

“London resembled the suburbs of hell”, John Evelyn, 1661

Between 1800-2000, humans produced 3 peta units (1015 kwh) of energy, almost a third of it in just the last two decades of that period.

Total and per capita energy use grew slowly until the industrial revolution, after which, it has grown asymptotically.

Oil discovery peaked in 1962. Current consumption is 6 barrels for every barrel discovered.

• Peak oil is expected to occur in the next 5-10 years, at most 2 decades. Peak gas will follow soon after. No viable energy source—green, nuclear, …. –is available to replace fossil fuels.

PEAK OIL

• Today, we require 1.4 earths, and by 2015, we will require 2 earths to meet human consumption demands.

• Much of this growth has been due to the increase in human population and increased demands on natural resources.

3. Overuse of earth’s natural resources and assimilative capacity for wastes

Acidification: SO2 depositionEmissions: 2000—5 MT 2030—25 MT

Unprotected ecosystem2000 2030

Atmospheric brown cloud

•Anthropogenic activity

• With the current rate of spoilage of the global commons, we have a very narrow time window to fix the problem, and we are probably not going to be able to fix it.

Growth of energy production/ consumption also have a direct correlation to deforestation, resource depletion, desertification, atmospheric and oceanic pollution, global warming and loss of biodiversity

To understand human “DEVELOPMENT” and ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION, it is critical to understand their drivers—ENERGY and KNOWLEDGE flows

• Supply side management– Replace fossil fuels with non-carbon based energy

systems• Green technologies• Nuclear power

• Tragedy of the commons

• Alternate energy sources will not work

• Bio-diesel: 0.75-1 ha required to run 1 vehicle on bio-diesel per yr. Hyderabad has ~20 lakh vehicles. To run all Hyderabad vehicles on bio-diesel would require 15,000-20,0002 km, ie, 8% of AP’s area.

• Wind: Fickle, has to be stored. Can be best used to generate electricity (which is only a fraction of the energy used). Even to do that in say the UK, would require 4% of the land area. To produce the total energy requirement of UK would require 33% of UK’s land area.

• Hydrogen: Hydrogen is an energy carrier.To have hydrogen, it has to be 1st produced, which requires energy inputs (concept of net energy).

– End of the pipe control

• The central problem lies in the way energy throughputs have been used and appropriated by humans, ie, private ownership of energy converters, therefore accumulation of embodied energy (eMergy)

• Economy based on greed

• Stealing of energy from other creatures and by a small set of humans from the vast majority

LIVING BEINGS ARE ENERGY SEEKERS• All living beings are energy seekers and

converters. Some do so actively, and others passively.

• Animals, other than humans, merely adapt to environments (and the energy they offer them), and survived if favourable conditions persisted, and perished if they changed.

• Humans crossed environmental boundaries, as they had the ability to do so, and colonized new ones, essentially in their search for energy (in different forms—food, fuel, and resources [embodied energy]),

HUMAN HISTORY IS THE STORY OF THE SEARCH TO INCREASE EMBODIED ENERGY MANIFEST IN

HUMAN CONSUMPTION

• Human history is basically one of increasing energy consumption, both directly, and in the form of products and services with ever increasing embodied energy.

• This could be done because of human’s ability to model and invent—Knowledge of energy conversion and how to use it to increase embodied energy.

• Human ability to harness energy sources and energy conversion technologies provide the dividers between different historical periods.

• Growth in energy production/ consumption have a direct correlation to growth of population, information/ knowledge, material throughput and human mobility.

• Development is generally equated to growth in human activity, and therefore energy consumption

ENERGY CONSUMPTION IS INEQUITABLE

• Per capita energy consumption in India is about ~650 units per annum, while in the US it is about 12,000 units and in Scandanavia it is 25,000 units.

• Per capita primary energy consumption– South Asia 0.5 ToE– EU 4.0 ToE– USA 8.0 ToE

Energy loss around 1,000 MW Nagarjuna

PP• PP capacity = 1000 MW = 106 KW (KJ/sec)• Energy produced/hr = 106 KWH (unit) • 1 unit = 3.6 x 106 J• Energy produced/yr = 106 KWH x 24 hrs/day x 300 days/yr = 7.2x109 units =

2.592x1016 J = 2.592x1013 KJ

• Energy loss in 25 km radius = energy loss in plant area + energy loss due to crop yield loss

• Plant area = 4 sq km• Energy loss in agricultural lands = 3000 kcal/m2/yr = 3000 x 4.2 KJ/m2/yr = 1.26x104

KJ/m2/yr• Energy loss in plant area = 1.26x104 KJ/m2/yr x 4x106 m2 = 5.04x1010 KJ/yr• Energy loss in 25 km radius (taking only half the area of a circle of R 25 km) =

1.26x104 KJ/m2/yr x 0.3 x 1000 km2 x 106 m2/km2 = 3.78x1012 KJ/yr• Total energy loss = 5.04x1010 KJ/yr + 3.78x1012 KJ/yr = 3.83x1012 KJ/yr• Ie, ~15% of energy produced by the PP is lost by local farmers as net primary

production on agricultural lands. Net primary production of fisheries needs to be computed.

Fig 3.9 KESA map showing protected area boundaries

• Led to eMergy inequities—eMergy haves and havenots, accentuated hugely by fossil fuels

• The method of appropriation of eMergy is varied—slave society, feudalism, capitalism

• eMergy inequity has been the driving force for conflict. In the last century, wars and conflicts have killed ~75-100 million people

• Private property was created to harvest energy by individuals

• Nation states formed to permit a set of people to harvest energy from an area

• State is “potential eMergy” that enables a the haves of a nation state harvest energy

• Land was privatized first, water is still being privatized

• Privatization of air has just begun

Solution!

Saying “reduce per capita footprint is easy. Translating it into a programme is not … It requires the social management of energy and knowledge for common good• Powering down energy throughputs to pre-1971 levels or even less.

• Use of renewables. How to get them into place quickly?• Sustainable energy permits. Luxury energy heavily priced

• Creating a society that will not permit the accumulation of embodied energy on a large scale in private hands.

• How?

• Restoring natural resources and the global commons to people.• How?

• Technology down-sizing.• How?• Will nano-technology come into place fast enough?

• Decentralized power generation?• Cannot meet current base requirements

• Equity in decision-making, access, control in the use of energy and other natural resources.

• How?

• Sustainable use of resources (renewable and non-renewable) and generation of wastes

• How?

• Re-localization alone? Or along with true globalization (sans borders)?• How?

• Population control?• How, without tackling poverty simultaneously?

• Generation and management of knowledge for the benefit of all humanity.• How?

IMPLICATIONS• Re-define development: Traditionally,

Development = growth + equity + social justice.

• Inequity is growing as the

trickle down theory has failedPercent income

Richest 25% Middle 50% Poorest 25%

1860 58% 30% 12%

1913 69% 25% 6%

1960 72% 25% 3%

Richest 20% Middle 60% Poorest 20%

2000 74% 24% 2%

Urban U.K. heading for

Victorian levels of inequality:

The chasm between rich and poor

seen in London today resembles

the Manchester

that Engels described in the 1840s.

Tristram Hunt—@Guardian 2007,

Hindu 20 Jul 2007

• To restore the carbon cycle:

• Equity and environment issues cannot be divorced from each other.

• People must recover their environments and their energy sources

• Saving the earth and humanity can no longer be done merely by technical, economic or legal fixes

• Development not to mean growth, but to mean how to ensure that all people have equitable:

– access to energy and other natural resources– consumption levels of energy and other natural resources– participation levels in decision making over all issues related

to energy and natural resources,

in such a manner that the eco-footprint for earth as a whole, and its various geographic regions, do not exceed their bio-capacities.

Are we part of nature or

Are we apart from nature?

Global outlook must change from

Gain maximizationfor a few

toRisk minimization for all (species)

Power down Equity

Power down

Borderless world

Reduce energyconsumption

within 10 yearsto half of current

consumption

Technology shifts:Harvest the sun

Borderless world

• Abolish all political borders. It will save a significant amount of energy consumption by dismantling:– Military-industrial complexes– Embassies, Ministries of Foreign Affairs, Customs,

Immigration, CIAs, RAWs, ISIs, etc.– Abolishing borders will also reduce energy consumption as:– It will allow for population migration to such areas that are

better endowed in energy and natural resources– Reduce terrorism

Reduce energy consumptionwithin 10 years to half of current

consumption

But how do we take care of the Jevon’s paradox?

This map explains the current “war on terrorism” in the Middle East

Technology shifts:

Harvest the sun—

It is the only major source ofsustainable energy

•Solar cookers•Solar water heaters•Other technologies

Sectors that we should pay attention to immediately

• Transport—public transport

• Cooking energy

• Food security

• Water security

• Retaining biodiversity (protect forests)

• Saving lives due to ravages of climate change

Equity

Equity•Energy access•Energy use•Energy resources management

How do we get Northnations to reduceenergy consumption?

People must recovertheir environments•Environments are their energy sources•Reduce alienation

Creating society thatwill NOT permit

accumulation of largeamount of embodied

energy in private hands

• The above can only be achieved if global thinking shifts from “gain maximization for a few people” to “risk minimization for all of life”. Implicit within the latter is the acceptance of three equities: a) between people, b) between generations, c) between species.

• This challenges the definition of “economic value” as understood by classical and Marxist economics, both of which are anthropocentric. Value, then may have to be based on a measurable index of environmental withdrawals, pollutants recycled to earth, interference with natural cycles (carbon and hydrological cycles, ..) and biota, besides the amount of human labour/ embodied energy that goes into a product or service.

• If human society survives the impending environmental crisis, a transition from equity between species to equality between species is desirable, if not inevitable. Value as an economic category, as we understand it today, will then disappear.

• Major political and sociological institutions today are also based on an anthropocentric view. These structures will change if a biocentric view becomes more acceptable.

 Other questions come into play.

– For instance, humans are the only creatures that have succeeded in colonizing new environments because of their ability to create and use knowledge, which has helped them destroy nature and brought them to the current crisis. No doubt, knowledge has done some good for humans, but on balance it seems to have done more harm. What then is the point in developing more knowledge?

– More importantly, greed seems to drive humans to consume wantonly. Yet, humans like all other animals have a self-preservative instinct. Which is the greater human motivator—greed or need for collective self-preservation?

• It is a moot point whether all this will work

It probably will not, as we may well have crossed the tipping point

• Maybe then, the only thing then we can do is to prepare ourselves and people for an apocalypse so that we minimize risk

• Prepare the ground for a different social order for a post-Carbon society

• Do all such things that will gain us moral ascendance

• The energy needs of a new society must be met by the sun

• Such a society would have to have a completely different relationship with nature. How can deep ecology be made to work? Do Eastern religions have insights to offer?

• Nature knows best—Barry Commoner, – Humans know worst

Biodiversity richness map

8,000 years ago

2,000 years ago

To correct theviolence done till now

Any attempted societaltransformationwill have to be

Non-violent

Much as it depresses me to think about the post-industrial stone age that we may be headed towards, it is my duty to speak my mind. And it is

yours to speak yours. I would be very happy if you proved me wrong.

Thank you for your patience.

The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking that we were at when we created them

-- Albert Einstein

Email: sagdhara@yahoo.comTel: 040 2753 6128

• Increase negative entropy on earth by relying more on cheap and unlimited solar energy

This implies:• Relying more on animal/human

power• Reducing global energy

consumption drastically

Current per capita consumption

World—1.2 TOe, India—0.4 TOe

Per capita consumption for a

sustainable world—0.67 Toe

• Rate of use of renewable resources do not exceed their regeneration

• Rate of use of non-renewable resources do not exceed exceed the rate at which sustainable renewable substitutes are developed

• Rate of pollution emission does not exceed the assimilative capacity of the environment