B 6025 - Argosy Universitydissertation.argosy.edu/chicago/Fall07/B6025_F07Deme... · Web viewAssignment 1: Amy’s Beauty Shop Amy’s Beauty Shop is a very popular hair styling facility

B 6025Management Decision Models

Fall I 2007

INSTRUCTOR: Elias Demetriades

PHONE:

EMAIL:

FAX:

REQUIRED TEXTS:

Title Statistics, Data Analysis and Decision ModelingAuthor(s) Evans, J.RCopyright (2007).Publisher Pearson/Prentice HallISBN 0131888102Edition (3/e)

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This Course Requires the Purchase of a Course Packet: YES NOArgosy University

COURSE SYLLABUSB6025

Management Decision Models

Faculty InformationFaculty Name: Elias DemetriadesCampus:Contact Information:Office Hours:Short Faculty Bio:

Course description: This course offers students the opportunity to learn and apply specific methods, techniques and topics related to statistics and quantitative analyses. Students design analyses around professional problems in their organizations or an organization in which they choose to enhance efficiency or effectiveness. Successful managers and decision makers are able to understand and effectively use the tremendous amount of information available to them. This course provides practical applications and a critical thinking perspective for business managers.

Course Pre-requisites: None

Required Textbook:

Evans, J.R. (2007). Statistics, Data Analysis and Decision Modeling (3/e). Pearson/Prentice Hall. ISBN: 0131888102

Course length: 7.5 Weeks

Contact Hours: 45 Hours

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Credit Value: 3.0Program Outcomes:1. Communication

1.1. Oral/Written – Present business information orally and in writing using appropriate technology that is concise, clear, organized, supported, and persuasive in a professional manner appropriate to the business context

2. Critical Thinking/Problem Solving2.1. Critical Thinking – Incorporate and synthesize information, theory, and practice in order to implement appropriate business

actions2.2. Problem Solving/Decision Making – Given a business situation, diagnose the underlying causes of the situation, evaluate

possible solutions, and determine and defend appropriate course of action 2.3. Information Literacy – Access information from a variety of sources, evaluate the credibility of the sources, and apply that

information to solve business problems3. Team

3.1. Leadership – Describe the requirements of team members and leaders to work effectively and creatively in achieving team goals

3.2. Collaboration – Collect, categorize, and consider the views of all stakeholders4. Ethics

4.1. Ethics – Identify the ethical principles related to personal and corporate behavior in specific business situations and explains the potential consequences

5. Diversity5.1. Diversity – Identify the impact of both cultural and economic factors on the modern enterprise and explain the potential

consequences6. Analysis/Application

6.1. Applied Technology – Select and defend business technology solutions to typical business problems6.2. Integration – Describe the interrelationship of the functional business areas of statistics, accounting, finance, marketing,

operations, and strategy within the context of specific organizational goals

Course Objectives:

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Given access to an electronic database of journals, identify and apply multiple methods, techniques, and topics related to statistics and quantitative analysis.

Given an organizational setting, select a design model to resolve a given efficiency problem.Given an organizational setting, select a design model to resolve a given effectiveness problem.Given an organizational environment, assess information and processes for decision-making.

Assignment Table

Topics Readings Assignments1 Introduce SFL

Guidelines & Process – Scenario and Storyboards

Problem Identification

Decision-Making Process

Statistical Modeling

Reid textbook:Chapter 1: Data and Business Decisions Chapter 2: Displaying and Summarizing DataChapter 3: Random Variables and Probability Distributions

From EBSCO database in the AU online library, read the following article:

McDonald, A., Thomas, L. (October 2005).

Assignment 1: Sharing Decision-Making ExperiencesWrite a two-page introduction that explores the dimensions of your personal and professional qualifications and interests. It should include your name and information about your current professional status, extent of familiarity with online courses, and career goals. Share the following in your submission:

What are your expectations from this course?

Assess and discuss how this course will help you to attain your professional objectives.

Recount a situation where you were involved in organizational or department-level decision-making and briefly outline the process that you implemented.

Provide information, if any, on your experience in using statistical tools in managerial decision-making, engineering analysis, etc.

Assignment 2: Root Cause Analysis

In the article, “Drill down with Root Cause Analysis”, a discussion of critical event or root cause analysis is presented. Root cause analysis, as you will read in the article, helps identify ‘what’, ‘how’, and ‘why’ an event occurred. A root cause analysis focuses on systems and processes and not on individual performance. The steps involved in conducting a root cause

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Drill down with Root Cause Analysis. Nursing Management; Vol. 36, Issue 19, p 26-32, 7p.

analysis are described in this article. Several legal aspects of this type of analysis are also discussed in depth.

Your task is to provide an eight to ten page research report by addressing the questions given below.

-What was identified as the “root cause” of the issues in the healthcare environment analyzed in the article?

-What were the steps identified as methods to ensure that an organization appropriately isolates and addresses the “correct” root cause of a problem or situation?

-What types of problems could these methods be applied to in a professional organization?

-What were the legal issues addressed in the article relative to this method of analysis, and what steps can you readily identify as methods to circumvent this additional risk exposure?

-Analyze and critique the reading resource.

The report should have the following sections:

Title page

Abstract

Table of contents

Introduction

Body

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Recommendation

References

Appendices

Cite three or more references. Adhere to APA standards as established in the 5th edition.

SFL Project Scenario Description:

As a team, you have to develop consensus on organizational problems. You will solve these problems using quantitative decision model analysis tools. The project that you create using these tools will be measurable and have defined parameters. Your project deliverable will demonstrate whether the process/method of analysis chosen by your team is appropriate.

The method employed by your team should provide an output and help you to make decisions—using the appropriate tools to get an outcome is part of the process. The key challenge your team will face in each module is how to interpret the outcome and make decisions.

So, as a team you could be addressing issues such as:

Evaluation of a product distribution process

Pricing of inventory Staffing of a project

In each module, you will be introduced to concepts, theories, or processes. You will read, examine, and apply the learning in the assignments. In your project task, you will apply and incorporate at least one of the concepts learned in each module.

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In this way, you can demonstrate an understanding of the decision-making tools chosen by the team to evaluate the problem and to provide a narrative, which demonstrates your critical-thinking skills. At the end of the course, you will present a PowerPoint of the project, which will have speakers’ notes attached, to the facilitator.

This project requires you to role-play and apply your knowledge to create an imaginary company in the pharmaceutical industry. You will examine and evaluate the company and industry from a leadership perspective. Each member of the team will assume positions of top management. You will suggest ways to gain and maintain competitive advantage with a focus on creating value over time. The study will be based on the following:

Problem identification

Data sampling techniques and analysis Development of collection tools Effective adaptation of measurement tools Program models for cost containment Critical thinking and problem analysis Statistical models and decision analysis Valuing and application of models

The scenario provides you with an opportunity to view real-world issues and challenges, and will help you practice the application of knowledge gleaned. You must identify the central issues and determine the most appropriate tools and concepts from the core curriculum to apply in order to gain insight into these issues.

Student Role

An active role is paramount to a successful learning experience. In this course, you have the

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opportunity to be active in different environments.

You will assume a leadership role. The members of your team will create a fictitious company operating in the pharmaceutical industry and choose the CEO. The CEO will then assign them specific tasks, which will be accomplished by:

Successfully managing stakeholder issues

Efficiently collecting and analyzing data Building on organizational strengths Planning for effective operations Acting as management consultants

Team Guidelines

Teamwork, collaboration, and self-directed learning help to develop and strengthen individual and organizational commitment and performance. These factors also help foster accountability, responsibility, and a sense of interdependence. They are all characteristics necessary to support a system.

You are expected to work on two levels: as team members solving problems within scenarios, and as individuals completing various assignments. This is another aspect of the course, which is applicable to the real world. Thus, employees, managers, and leaders are expected and required to:

Perform several tasks at the same time.

Be responsible for several jobs and/or assignments. Possess and utilize diverse skills appropriately and optimally.

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Team Communication

Effective communication is very important in an SFL course. You will be working as a team to complete assignments, and you will need to exchange views and opinions with your teammates constantly. In the next seven weeks, you will communicate quite frequently with your peers through e-mail.

As in the workplace, you will be evaluated on your individual and teamwork abilities and participation. This aspect of coursework is challenging and requires a systems approach to best ensure appropriate and effective outcomes. Teamwork is a positive learning experience. Working in teams is an excellent way to enhance your learning experience when the following guidelines are followed:

Contact your fellow team members immediately to establish your basic means of communicating and working together.

o Exchange e-mails, phone numbers, schedules, (time zone information for online courses), and other details needed to set up regular meetings.

o Agree to “meet” frequently to touch base and provide information and assistance where possible.

o Plan the methods that you will use to collaborate, such as face to face meetings, e-mail, conference calls, etc.

Identify the nature and amount of work that the team will do during the course. o Set timelines/deadlines for completing individual and collaborative work. o Make sure you factor in enough time for revisions and integration. (Do not

assume that the individual components will fit together seamlessly.) o Determine how the teamwork will be divided and how individual assignments

will be handed out. Decide on team roles for individual tasks or the entire course.

o Determine who will take on the “coordination” role, ensuring that the

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individual components are integrated before submission. o Determine which parts of the tasks can be done individually, and which parts

must be done collaboratively. o As much as possible, match team members’ skills, experiences, and interests in

a logical and equitable manner. Finally, and most importantly, establish some team norms of behavior and set up a

method for managing conflicts that might arise in the team. o Agree on a “respectful team environment” policy, where you agree to problem-

solve conflicts by asking questions and seeking clarifications, rather than communicating in angry or sarcastic ways.

Set performance expectations and define consequences for failing to meet them. For example, deadlines are firm yet notification of teammates prior to the deadline of a problem will be acceptable. Failure to meet a deadline or prior notification of failure will result in a failing evaluation for the task or additional work being required for future tasks.

Assignment 3: Team Project Plan

Your instructor will divide you into teams comprising of three members. Each team member will assume different management roles of a pharmaceutical company. Nominate one member in your team to take on the role of team leader. In the subsequent weeks, each team member will have an opportunity to be team leader. This will help in effective allocation of work among team members. Further, discuss and set an appropriate schedule and deadlines for completing individual work. You have to ensure that your plan allows the time taken for revisions and integration. Allow your team leader to take the final decision.

Your course project will require you to analyze the pharmaceutical industry. The method employed by your team should provide an output and help you to make decisions—using the appropriate tools to get an outcome is part of the process. The key challenge your team will face in each module is how to interpret the outcome and make decisions.

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So, as a team you could be addressing issues such as:

-Evaluation of a product distribution process-Pricing of inventory-Staffing of a project

Apply these concepts to research on the problem faced by the organization. Use root cause analysis to identify ‘what’, ‘how’, and ‘why’ when addressing these issues.

At the end of the course, you will collate all information you have gathered into a case study using the document below. Go through the sections in this document to get an idea of how your final project submission will take shape. This is necessary, as this will ensure that your project task in each module is completed with this final goal in mind.

The task should be equally divided between team members. Your team of three members will follow the directives below.

As a team, your first task is to complete the Team Project Plan. Via email/chat session/in person, convene all team members to discuss the scope of your project. Include the following:

-Process of teamwork for the entire project-Issues that will be solved in the project-Process to ensure teamwork-Process for conflict resolution in a team-Operating procedures for the team-Process to deal with non-performance if it occurs

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-Group normsThe Team Project Plan is an assessment instrument, which will be used throughout the duration of the course to determine how well your team works together and how each team member performs. Remember, as in the workplace, you will be evaluated on your individual and teamwork abilities and participation. A thorough project plan will identify if any team member goes off the track and jeopardizes the grade of the team on this project.

2 Identification of Relevant Data Samples

Data Sample Selection Risk Evaluation

Tool Identification

Sampling Process

Measurement Tool Identification

Testing Models

Interpretation Process

Analysis of Tools

Correction Process

Reid textbook:Chapter 5: Hypothesis Testing and Statistical InferenceChapter 6: Regression Analysis

Assignment 1: Regression Analysis ModelThe total goals scored in the last soccer World Cup by different countries are as follows:

Country A B C D E

Last World Cup 5 6 3 7 4

Final Average 6 7 5 7 5

Prepare a regression analysis model that would be useful in predicting the final average in the upcoming World Cup based on the data provided.

Assignment 2:

Utilizing the AU online library, study one of the two articles listed below:

Use of Regression in Assessing Hedge Effectiveness

Data Analysis Tools Can Deliver Competitive Advantage

In your report, identify the regression technique or the data analysis model used to solve a problem. Critique the effectiveness of this approach and analyze it based on the knowledge you have gained thus far in the course. In your report, cite opportunities for improvement or

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confirmations of the appropriateness of the approach utilized.

The following questions should be answered in your report:

-What quantitative analysis method was used in the case study?

-Was this method appropriate for the process being evaluated?

-What were the limitations of the application of this model? What was most effective and ineffective about the application?

-Were the results quantitative and qualitative?

-Were the decisions made after the analysis appropriate given the desired outcome? Were there still unanswered questions?

-What would you have done differently? Why?

Your analysis should not be more than 750 words in length. Adhere to APA standards as established in the 5th edition.

3 Collection Tool Identification

Decision Theory

Statistical Modeling: Forecasting Models

Reid textbook:Chapter 7: Forecasting

From the AU online library, read the following article:

Assignment 1: ForecastingPaul works in the corporate loan division of a bank. He has to evaluate the revenue of a company that seeks bank financing to expand its operations. The financials that this company presented to Paul are as follows:

Year Income1 7002 7803 815

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Iakovou, E. T., Ortiz, O. L. (2004) Reengineering of the Laundry Service at a University Campus: A Continuous-Improvement Quality-Management Methodology. Quality Engineering. Vol. 16 Issue 2, p245-255, 11p, 2 diagrams, 3 graphs.

4 850

Use the data above to perform the following computations:

-Three year moving average forecast model.

-A forecasting model using the trend projection method.

-Which model provides the most effective information to allow Paul to make a positive decision to loan the money to the company?

Present this assignment in a form of a report of one to two pages

Assignment 2: Collection Tools

In the previous modules, you have worked on your pharmaceutical company and developed consensus on an organizational problem that you will solve using quantitative tools. To help you solve this problem, you applied statistical tools to understand probability, and you performed solution analysis and implemented efficiency measurements. As you progressed further in your project, you identified sample data to analyze the problem, applied regression techniques to identify relationships between data, and used your analysis to plan for your company.

Now, you will use data to make a decision that is best for your pharmaceutical company. Your decision will be based on your ability to understand trends and predict future events. You will use forecasting models to aid you in predicting future events and therefore make the best informed decision for your company. Your team task is to submit a business plan for your company in PowerPoint format of seven to eight slides.

The task should be equally divided between team members. Your team of three members will

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follow the directives below. Allow your team leader to take the final decision.

The team task this week is to create a seven to eight slide PowerPoint Presentation of a business plan that:

-Identifies the collection tool-Includes the sample survey instrument-Makes an effective decision based on the outcome of your forecasting model

Conduct a session with all the team members and come to a consensus on using a specific collection tool. The table below defines each team member’s task.

Task Allocation:

Team Member Task Delivery date and format Team Member A Define the collection tool that you

have selected for your pharmaceutical company.

Explain your rationale for choosing a specific tool instead of other tools.

Prepare a bulleted list on each question.

Email the findings to other team members.

Team Member B Prepare a sample survey instrument appropriate for the collection tool decided upon by the team

Email the sample survey instrument to other team members

Team Member C (Team leader)

What forecasting model will you implement to make the right decision for your company?

What decision do you think is the best for solving the organizational

Prepare a report answering the specified questions. Email the findings to other team members

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problem?

Conduct a session with all the team members. In this session, discuss all the issues faced in this assignment and help your team leader combine individual findings into a seven to eight slide PowerPoint. Use the Group Assignment Responsibility document to track and record teamwork. Adhere to APA standards as established in the 5th edition.

Assignment 3: Case Study: Article Analysis

In the “Reengineering of the Laundry Service at a University Campus: A Continuous-Improvement Quality-Management Methodology” article you will review how the Department of Auxiliary Services of the University of Miami used total quality management and quantitative decision-making tools to improve the students' satisfaction of the laundry system.

Each team member will answer a set of questions analyzing this article. The task should be equally divided between team members. Your team of three members will follow the directives below. Allow your team leader to take the final decision.

Your team task is to provide an eight to ten page research report by addressing the questions given below. The report should have the following sections:

Title page

Abstract Table of contents Introduction

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Body Recommendation References Appendices

With all of your team members, come to a consensus on:

Title

Table of contents

The table below defines each team member’s task.

Team Member Task Delivery date and format

Team Member A

1. Write an Introduction to the research report

2. Identify the measurement tools utilized by the college to determine the root cause of the laundry service problem

3. What data was used to evaluate the problem?

Complete the sections and e mail the findings to other team members.

The first point will be incorporated into the Introduction section of the team report.

Point two and three would be part of the Body and Appendices, respectively.

Team Member B

1. Was the analysis accurate based on the outcome and decision to re-engineer the process?

2. Identify the limitations and emerging trends (as applicable) of the study.

Complete the following aspect of the assignment and email the findings to the other team members

The first point will be incorporated into the body of the report.

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3. Cite the references used. The second point will go into the recommendation section of the report

The third point will be for the references section of the report


1. What would you have done differently?

2. Could the college have identified this outcome without the use of the quantitative analysis model? How?

3. Write an abstract for the report.

Review individual submissions and will answer the following questions Email the findings to other team members

The first and second point will be incorporated into the body of the report.

The third point is for the Abstract section

Discuss with your team all the issues faced in this assignment and help your team leader combine individual findings. Ensure that the contribution of each team member is incorporated. Compile and complete all the sections of the research report and submit to the instructor.

Use the Group Assignment Responsibility document to track and record teamwork. Adhere to APA standards as established in the 5th edition.

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4 Statistical Modeling Relationship

Models Sensitivity

Analysis

Resource Management Staffing Models Financial Models Production Models

Feasibility Studies Profit Analysis Cost Analysis

Reid textbook:Chapter 9: Building and Using Decision ModelsChapter 13: Optimization ModelingChapter 14: Solving and Analyzing Optimization Models

From the AU online library, read the following article:

Koul, J. B.; Gunawardane, G. (Feb82) Application of quantitative analytical techniques to a chemical discarding problem. Interfaces. Vol. 12 Issue 1, p1-5, 5p.

Assignment 1:

Planning for Online Courses

Complete the task below to get first a first hand opportunity to see how an organization uses feasibility study to determine the optimal return on investment—in this case, teaching the maximum number of students with a minimum output of online course development cost. The objective is to optimize output of courses and minimize the cost to develop those courses.

Read the following:

An online training company is planning for new courses. The company feels there is a need of approximately 25 undergraduate courses and 20 graduate courses. The company can produce 45 online courses. The development cost of an undergraduate course is $10, 000 and $12, 000 for a graduate course.

Write a single page business plan answering the question given below:

Calculate how many undergraduate and graduate courses the company should launch so that course development costs are minimized.

Submit your business plan to your instructor. Your plan should cover student enrollment and cost control. Along with your plan, submit the spreadsheet that you have used for your calculations. Adhere to APA standards as established in the 5th edition.

Assignment 2: Case Study: Article Analysis

From the Argosy University online library read the article below, and write an analysis report of three to five pages.

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Koul, J. B.; Gunawardane, G. (Feb82) Application of quantitative analytical techniques to a chemical discarding problem. Interfaces. Vol. 12 Issue 1, p1-5, 5p.

In this journal, you will review the application of production model and relationship model to a problem of chemical discarding process at Chrysler's factory. The implementation of the recommended changes in this analysis has resulted in significant financial and social benefits. You will see how a problem is identified, production process is evaluated, and changes implemented. You will also see the amount of financial and social benefits achieved by this change in production process.

Each team member will answer a set of questions analyzing this article. The task should be equally divided between team members. Your team of three members will follow the directives below. Allow your team leader to take the final decision.

Your team task is to provide an eight to ten page research report by addressing the questions given below. The report should have the following sections:

Title page

Table of contents Introduction Body Recommendation References

Discuss with all the team members and come to a consensus on:

Title

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Table of contents

Team Member Task Delivery date and formatTeam Member A

1. Write an introduction to the research report

2. What measurement tools were utilized by Chrysler to determine the root cause of the chemical bath process?

3. What data was used to evaluate the problem?

Complete the sections and email the findings to other team members.

The first point will be incorporated into the introduction section of the team report.

Points two and three would be part of the body of the report.

Team Member B 1. Was the analysis accurate based on the outcome and evaluation of the quality of the chemical bath process?

2. Identify the limitations and assumptions of the study.

3. Cite the references used.

Complete the following aspect of the assignment and email the findings to the other team members.

The first two points will be incorporated into the body of the report.

The third point will be for the references section of the report.


1. What would you have done differently?

2. Could Chrysler have identified this outcome without the use of the quantitative analysis model? How?

3. Cite the references used.

Review individual submissions and answer the questions. Email the findings to other team members

The first and second points will be incorporated into the recommendation part of the report.

The third point will be for the references section of the report.

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Conduct a chat session with all the team members. Discuss all the issues faced in this assignment and work with your team leader to ensure individual findings are combined logically in your report. Submit your report to the appropriate Discussion Area.

This analysis will help you understand the application of the tools you learned in this module. You can apply these to your pharmaceutical company to identify a problem, evaluate the production process, and implement the required changes. Examine the amount of financial and social benefits achieved by this change in production process in your company. In implementing the recommended changes, do you foresee significant financial and social benefits?


Assignment 3: Mid-Project Assessment

In this module, you will conduct a mid-term assessment of the project that your team is creating and compile the findings in the Mid-Project Assessment document.

Incorporate the concepts learned till now and then step back and assess what you learnt in the

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previous modules. The document should reflect the scenario completed so far, including:

Your decision to apply quantitative analysis to the decision making process in your pharmaceutical company.

Your introduction to the probability models that are used in quantitative analysis. Your identification of specific data sample measurement techniques. Your analysis of data using various decision and regression models to facilitate

statistical measurement of “root cause” of the problem. Your objectives of data collection efforts. Your effective utilization of internal and

external data to determine which decision would be most beneficial to your company.

Discuss the scope of the assessment with your team members. You should also discuss the concepts you covered this week:

Statistical Modeling

o Relationship Modelso Sensitivity Analysis

Resource Managemento Staffing Modelso Financial Modelso Production Models

Feasibility Studieso Profit Analysiso Cost Analysis

The task should be equally divided between team members. Your team of three members will follow the directives below. Allow your team leader to take the final decision.

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Student Names Task Delivery Deadline

Team Member A

Compile your team’s findings on the following aspects of your project:

1. Comment on the organizational problem that was identified.

2. Analyze how the team identified a data analysis tool.

3. Examine the outcome of using the data analysis tool and comment on its relevance to your pharmaceutical company.

Compile your findings using the Mid-Project Assessment document.


Team Member B


1. Justify the collection tool you used. 2. The survey instrument you developed to

collect data.

3. The forecasting model you used and the outcome.

Compile your findings using the Mid-Project Assessment document.


Team Member C (Team Leader)


1. Use individual findings for decision making, relative to specific organizational functions such as staff, finance, and marketing.

2. Use statistical models such as relationship modeling and sensitivity analysis to identify an optimal solution for your company.

Complete the Mid-Project Assessment document. Email the findings to other team members.

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3. Identify and address the outcomes and make recommendations for appropriate process changes. Utilize feasibility study methods to evaluate the expected outcomes.

Combine your project in a report of three to five pages. Submit your report and the Mid-Project Assessment document to the instructor.


5 Operational Efficiency

Computational Tools

Analysis Outcomes

Reid textbook:Chapter 10: Decisions and Risk Chapter 11: Risk Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation

Assignment 1: Identification of Locations

Individually, consider this situation:April Mays Corporation is assessing the feasibility of adding another location to its existing facilities. Its facilities are located in Houston, Cincinnati, and New Jersey. The additional facilities being considered will be located in South Dakota and North Dakota.

Existing PlantsTo \From Houston Cincinnati New

Jersey Demand

Des Plaines $18 $22 $27 250 Las Vegas $30 $28 $20 300 Lauderdale $23 $22 $25 350 Capacity 200 300 375

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Proposed Plants

To\From South Dakota North DakotaDes Plaines $26 $29Las Vegas $35 $30Lauderdale $22 $23Capacity 175 175

Location Houston Cincinnati New Jersey S Dakota N DakotaProduction Costs $60 $75 $45 $50

Calculate the total transportation costs for the new location as well as the unit cost.

Use QM or ExcelQM for the calculations in this assignment. Use the Transportation area of QM/Excel and choose maximize for the development of solutions.

Submit your analysis in a narrative format to the instructor. Your analysis should not be more than a page. Along with the analysis, submit the spreadsheet that you have worked on to support your analysis.

Assignment 2: Goal Programming

You have been hired as a consultant by a company that manufactures two products: Product A and Product B. The demand every week for Product A is 800 units and 500 units for Product B. The company currently operates on an operating capacity of 1, 350 hours with Product A requiring an hour to produce and Product B requiring two hours. The company makes a profit of $15 on Product A and $20 on Product B. The company has some new goals for its

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productivity for the next business cycle. As a consultant, you have to:

1. Determine which product is more profitable.

2. Realize a profit of approximately $12,000 per week based on sales volume.

Use the information provided above and apply non-linear goal programming approach to solve this problem. Use Excel (with Solver) for your calculations. Submit an analysis report in one to two pages to the instructor. Adhere to APA standards as established in the 5th edition.

Assignment 3: Integer Models and Programming Formulas

In the previous modules, you and your team members worked on the problem you identified in your company. You identified sample data and used it for your analysis using different statistical models. You analyzed alternative decisions to identify the optimal solution.

This week, you will identify the more efficient methods of managing costs in your company through the application of various integer models and programming formulas. Your decision this week will focus on maintaining efficiency in your operations. You will evaluate resource allocation processes in your company to determine the level of efficiency, evaluate production models to meet supply and demand, and maximize cost-benefit for your company. You will apply the theoretical knowledge gained in this module to make decisions on issues, such as warehousing, operations location, supply and demand of inventory, and transportation.

With your team, decide which of the following methods your team wants to incorporate into your company:

Cost-benefit analysis

Capacity evaluation

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Transportation algorithm

The task should be equally divided between team members. Your team of three members will follow the directives below. Allow your team leader to take the final decision.

6 Project Management Control Efficiency PERT and CPM

Network Models Minimal-Spanning

Tree Technique Maximal-Flow

Technique Shortest-Route

Technique

Customer Service Models Queuing Models Poisson

Distribution Cost Evaluation

Reid textbook:Chapter Four: Sampling and EstimationChapter Twelve: Queues and Process Simulation Modeling

Instructor to assign articles relating to PERT and CPM

From the AU online library, read the following articles:

Shainauskas, F.; Miller, K. (Jan2004) Design and Construction in an Urban Environment.

Assignment 1: Amy’s Beauty Shop

Amy’s Beauty Shop is a very popular hair styling facility in University City, PA. Four stylists work full-time and spend an average of 15 minutes on each customer. Customers do not have to make an appointment, and on an average there are 12 customers in the salon at any given hour. The system here requires customers to sign in and they are serviced in the order in which they sign in. For example, the customer who signs in first is customer number 1 and the one who signs in next is customer number 2, and so on.

Respond to the following questions in a report of three to five pages.

1. What is the probability that a customer arriving at the salon would be the first one to sign in?

2. What is the average number of customers in the salon?3. What is the average time a customer spends in the salon?4. What is the average time that a customer spends waiting to be called to the stylist’s

chair?5. What is the average number waiting to be served?6. What is the salon’s utilization factor?7. Amy’s Beauty Shop is thinking of adding a fifth stylist. How will this affect the

utilization rate?

Follow Poisson distribution for the newly arriving customers and use exponential distribution for the service times.

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Transmission & Distribution World. Vol. 56 Issue 1, p44-48, 4p. This article provides a discussion of project management process.

Trent, R. J. (May/June2001) Applying TQM TO SCM. Supply Chain Management Review. Vol. 5 Issue 3, p70, 9p, 2 charts, 1 diagram, 1 graph. This article reviews the utilization of customer service models.

Adhere to APA standards as established in the 5th edition. Submit your report to the instructor.

Assignment 2: Customer Service at KeyCorp

Individually, review the article from Argosy University online library. Analyze how KeyCorp, after implementing its Service Excellence Management System, has increased productivity and improved banking experience for its customers. You will see how customer processing time has been reduced by 53% and customer wait time has been reduced to less than five minutes. On the operational front, the bank has reduced personnel expenses by $98 million over five years, producing an internal rate of return of 3,500%.

Write an analysis on the article in one to two pages answering the questions below:

1. Identify the quantitative framework, specifically CPM, which applies to the service excellence management system at KeyCorp.

2. What was identified as the root cause of the problem with the existing customer service model?

3. What data was captured by KeyCorp to identify the root cause of the problem in its customer service delivery model?

4. Map the steps in the process for KeyCorp using the following model: Defining the problem & Developing a Model Acquiring input data Developing a solution Testing the solution Analyzing the results Implementing the results

Adhere to APA standards as established in the 5th edition. Submit your analysis to the Instructor.

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Assignment 3: Optimal Solution and Shortest Route

In this module you have reviewed three network models. These are:

Minimal-Spanning Tree Technique

Maximal-Flow Technique Shortest-Route Technique

Individually, write an analysis report on the shortest-route technique. In your report, consider the following questions:

1. Is it possible to arrive at an alternative optimal solution in a process?

2. Is it possible that the identification of an alternative optimal solution be an autonomous process?

3. What are the outcomes of using the alternative solution?4. Compare the effectiveness of the alternative approach as compared to the shortest-route

technique approach.

Submit you analysis report of three to five pages to the instructor.

Adhere to APA standards as established in the 5th edition.

Assignment 4: Critical Thinking and Problem Analysis

In the previous modules, you have identified a problem in your pharmaceutical company, which you and your team members hope to solve using statistical techniques. You have identified data sample and used various statistical models to evaluate the problem and define a

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solution.

This week you have learned the following three concepts:

Network Models

o Minimal-Spanning Tree Techniqueo Maximal-Flow Techniqueo Shortest-Route Technique

Project Managemento Controlo Efficiencyo PERT and CPM

Customer Service Modelso Queuing Modelso Poisson Distributiono Cost Evaluation

In this module, you will evaluate network models to identify the best way of transferring goods between different locations. You will implement project management techniques, and use customer service models to serve your customers better.

Conduct a chat session with all your team members and discuss the scope of the project. Your team of three members will follow the directives below. Allow your team leader to take the final decision.

Student Names Task Delivery Deadline

Team Consider the network models that you reviewed this Compile your report in Word

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Member A week: minimal-spanning tree technique, maximal-flow technique, and shortest-route technique. Provide an analysis report on the model that you think is best suited for your company.

format. Email your findings to other team members.

Team Member B

Consider PERT and CPM, the two popular techniques used by project managers. Provide an analysis report on the technique that you think is best suited for your company.

Compile your report in Word format. Email your findings to other team members.


Consider the different customer service models you reviewed this week: queuing models, Poisson distribution, and cost evaluation. Provide an analysis report on the model that you think is best suited for your company.

Compile your report in Word format. Email your findings to other team members.

As a team, discuss the outcome of the analysis that each team member performed. In this meeting, you will discus all the issues faced in this assignment and help your team leader compile your findings in an analysis report of four to five pages. Submit your report to your instructor.


7 Simulation Modeling

Condition Analysis

From the AU online library, read the following articles:

Assignment 1: Diligent Retailers

Provide your recommendations to Diligent Retailer 1.

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Ekere, N. N., Hannam, R. G. (April 1989) An Evaluation of Approaches to Modelling and Simulating Manufacturing Systems. International Journal of Production Research. Vol. 27 Issue 4, p599, 13p.

Akinc, U., Meredith, J. (Oct 2006) Choosing the Appropriate Capacity for a Make-To-Forecast Production Environment Using a Markov Analysis Approach. IIE Transactions. Vol.

You have been hired as a consultant by Market Share Gurus, a leading research firm in New York. Your client, Diligent 1, has noticed that some other Diligent retailers are operating in the neighboring area and causing a loss of sales for Diligent 1. Assess the situation by using the matrix of transition probabilities given below:

.Diligent 1 Diligent 2 Diligent 3 Diligent 4

Diligent 1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1

Diligent 2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1

Diligent 3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2

Diligent 4 0.05 0.15 0.1 0.7

Calculate the market share of the Diligent retailers in the upcoming quarter. In the past, all the retailers had equal market share.

Submit your analysis report, one or two pages in length, to the instructor.

Assignment 2: Simulation of Client Service

Provide an analysis report with your recommendation regarding the following:

Cherie Madison, Esquire operates a law practice. She is committed to making sure that her clients do not wait for an extended period of time when they come to her office for their appointments. She needs your help in evaluating her time management opportunities using one

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38 Issue 10, p847-858, 12p, 5 charts, 2 diagrams, 5 graphs.

of her schedules for a typical day working from 9:00 A.M. to 3:00 P.M. Following is the schedule:

Client Time of Appointment

Time Needed for Client

Madison 8:30 A.M. 25 minutes MacDonald 9:00 A.M. 45 minutes Rafferty 10:00 A.M. 30 minutes McMillan 10:45 A.M. 50 minutes Ramsey 11:45 A.M. 30 minutes Collier 12:20 P.M. 60 minutes Grunenberg 1:30 P.M. 60 minutes Stamford 2:45 P.M. 15 minutes

Use the simulation model to prepare an analysis using the information above and address the following questions:

What is the probability that the attorney will be able to see and complete work for a client that requires 50 minutes for an appointment?

What is the probability that the attorney will be able to see and complete work for clients that require at least an hour to get their work completed? What is the importance of evaluating probability in relation to overall client service management?

Submit your report with recommendations for efficiency opportunities based on findings in the simulation model. Your report should not be more than 750 words in length. Adhere to APA standards as established in the 5th edition. Submit your report to the instructor.

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Assignment 3: Decision Analysis

This week, you will start to compile your group’s findings over the past weeks.

As a team, you developed consensus on the organizational problems in the first week. You and your team members decided to solve these problems using quantitative decision model analysis tools. The project that you will create now will reflect on your ability to use these tools and models. Your project will demonstrate whether the process/method of analysis chosen by your team is appropriate.

The key challenge your team faced in each module was to interpret the outcome and make decisions. As a team, you addressed issues such as evaluation of a product distribution process, pricing of inventory, and staffing of a project.

In each module, you were introduced to concepts, theories, or processes to help you take a decision. You read, examined, and applied the learning in the assignments. In your project task, you applied and incorporated the concepts learned in each module.

In your project this week, you will demonstrate an understanding of the decision-making tools chosen by your team to evaluate problems and provide a narrative that demonstrates your critical-thinking skills.

This project requires you to role-play and apply your knowledge to create an imaginary company in the pharmaceutical industry. You will examine and evaluate the company and industry from a leadership perspective. Each member of your team will assume positions of top management. In this project, you will suggest ways to gain and maintain a competitive advantage with a focus on creating value over time.

Define the scope of your final project. Your team will present a case study of the pharmaceutical company that you have been working with. Each team’s presentation will sum

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up all the issues that have been dealt with in the past six weeks. Your team will compile the problems, solution, and the applications of the solution and present their evaluation.

Having already collated the information of the first four modules in your mid-term assessment, you will now compile your case study. At this stage, make the required changes to the solutions you identified in the mid-project assessment.

Present your case study, 20–25 pages in length, detailing all the learning experience and decisions you took in every module of the course.

The task should be equally divided between team members. Your three-member team will follow the directives given below. Allow your team leader to take the final decision.

Student Names Task Delivery DeadlineTeam Member A Compile the team’s findings on the following

aspects of the project:

Understanding of organizational problems that was identified by using root cause analysis

Analysis and identification of the data analysis tool

Analysis of the outcome of using the data analysis tool and its relevance to the company

Justification of the collection tool used

Compile your findings using the Organizing Project document. E-mail the findings to other team members.

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Comments on the survey instrument developed to collect data

Team Member B Compile the team’s findings on the following aspects of the project:

1. Understanding of the forecasting model used for the company and the expected outcome

2. The resource management decisions for specific functions, such as staff, finance, and marketing

3. The statistical models used, such as relationship modeling and sensitivity analysis to identify an optimal solution for the company

4. The feasibility study methods used and the manner of identifying and recommending appropriate process changes

5. The identification of the integer model that is best suited for the company: cost-benefit analysis, capacity evaluation, and transportation algorithm



Compile the team’s findings on the following aspects of the project:

1. Application of goal ranking to establish priorities on the goals/objectives the company wants to pursue

2. The decision on the best-suited network model for the company: minimal-spanning tree technique, maximal-flow technique, and shortest-route technique


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3. The decision of opting for a project management technique and its expected benefits to the company

4. The decision to opt for a customer service model and its expected benefit and impact on the company

5. The use of a simulation modeling approach to replicate real-world scenarios to help take a decision on behalf of the company

Conduct a chat session with your team members to discus all the issues you faced in preparing the case study. Help your team leader collate your findings. Ensure that each team member uses the Organizing Project document. In this document, you will:

1. Complete Step 1 by finishing the table labeled Part 1: Problem/Solution Summary 2. Complete Step 2 by finishing Part 2: Assumptions and Evidence 3. Complete Step 3 by finishing Part 3: Plan for implementation and feedback

Remember that you will add your inputs on quality management to the case study, after you review quality processes in Module 8. You will submit your case study in Module 8.

8 Quality Process From the AU online library, read the following articles:

Revere, L., Black, A. K. (2003, Nov/Dec).

Assignment 1: Identification of TQM Process

Beth Hansberger has a successful office supply company that manufactures paper clips and various other standard office products. Even though they are inexpensive to manufacture, the paper clips have provided the organization with a relatively high margin of profit. In terms of defect, the company is currently rendering a 2.0% defect rate on production of the paper clips. For the purposes of the example, a sample of 200 clips was evaluated. Establish the upper and

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Integrating Six Sigma with total Quality Management: A Case Example for Measuring Medication Errors. Journal of Healthcare Management. 48(6), p377-391, 15p, 4 charts.

Contains practical information on how quality processes are used in the real world. This article demonstrates how to integrate quality into current business process, identify areas of opportunity, and apply the appropriate methods to reach process

lower control-chart limits for this process at a 99.7% confidence level.

Submit an analysis report with your findings and discuss the best approach that Beth can integrate into her current manufacturing process to circumvent the current defect rate. Your report should not be more than 700 words in length. In your report, compare TQM with any one of the following quality control methods: Six-Sigma, process improvement, and cost of quality. Include pros and cons of the processes.

Submit your analysis report to the instructor.

Assignment 2: Project Presentation

This week, you will incorporate quality management decisions in your project and then develop a PowerPoint presentation on your company’s case study with speakers’ notes.

You and your team will compile your findings using the Organizing Project document.

In this document, you have already:

1. Completed Step 1 by finishing the table labeled Part 1: Problem/Solution Summary

2. Completed Step 2 by finishing Part 2: Assumptions and Evidence3. Completed Step 3 by finishing Part 3: Plan for Implementation and Feedback

Now include the quality process that you will implement in your company, its impact on the

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improvement objectives.

various functions in your company, and your overall company benefit.

Then you will:

Complete Step 4 by informing the facilitator about the completed project

Complete Step 5 by attaching a completed copy of the Team Evaluation Form

You will also discuss various sections of the PowerPoint presentation in your team. You will have to ensure that the PowerPoint presentation effectively sums up the case study. The PowerPoint presentation will be of eight-to-ten slides.

Your presentation should include:

Introduction to scenario

Diagnosis and research Identification of the problem Defining the solutions Execution of the solutions Evaluation and conclusion

The task should be equally divided between team members. Your team of three members will follow the directives given in the table below. Allow your team leader to take the final decision.

Student Names Task Delivery DeadlineTeam Member A Complete the following

sections of the PowerPoint presentation:

Complete the PowerPoint presentation on the case study. Email the findings to other team members.

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Introduction to the scenario

Diagnosis and research

Team Member B Complete the following sections of the PowerPoint presentation:

Identification of the problem

Defining the solutions



Complete the following sections of the PowerPoint presentation:

Execution of the solutions

Evaluation and conclusion


Compile the case study and the PowerPoint presentation. You will include the quality management issues you discussed this week in your case study.

Please submit your case study to http://www.turnitin.com for plagiarism check.

Submit the case study and the PowerPoint presentation to the instructor.

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http://www.turnitin.com/

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Grading Criteria

Grading Scale Grading requirements

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A 100 – 93A- 92 – 90B+ 89 – 88B 87 – 83B- 82 – 80C+ 79 – 78C 77 – 73C- 72 – 70F 79 and below

Attendance/participation 25%Weekly Assignments 20%Final paper 35%Optional 10%Optional 10%

100%

Library:

All resources in Argosy University’s online collection are available through the Internet. The campus librarian will provide students with links, user IDs, and passwords.

Library Resources: Argosy University’s core online collection features nearly 21,000 full-text journals and 23,000 electronic books and other content covering all academic subject areas including Business & Economics, Career & General Education, Computers, Engineering & Applied Science, Humanities, Science, Medicine & Allied Health, and Social & Behavior Sciences. Many titles are directly accessible through the Online Public Access Catalog at http://library.argosy.edu. Detailed descriptions of online resources are located at http://library.argosy.edu/misc/onlinedblist.html.

In addition to online resources, Argosy University’s onsite collections contain a wealth of subject-specific research materials searchable in the Online Public Access Catalog. Catalog searching is easily limited to individual campus collections. Alternatively, students can search combined collections of all Argosy University Libraries. Students are encouraged to seek research and reference assistance from campus librarians.

Information Literacy: Argosy University’s Information Literacy Tutorial was developed to teach students fundamental and transferable research skills. The tutorial consists of five modules where students learn to select sources appropriate for academic-level research, search periodical indexes and search engines, and evaluate and cite information. In the tutorial, students study concepts and practice them through interactions. At the conclusion of each module, they can test their comprehension and receive immediate feedback. Each module takes less than 20 minutes to complete. Please view the tutorial at http://library.argosy.edu/infolit/

Academic Policies

Academic Dishonesty/Plagiarism: In an effort to foster a spirit of honesty and integrity during the learning process, Argosy University requires that the submission of all course assignments represent the original work produced by that student. All sources must be documented through normal scholarly references/citations and all work must be submitted using the Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association, 5th Edition (2001). Washington DC: American Psychological Association (APA) format. Please refer to Appendix A in the Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association, 5th Edition for thesis and paper format. Students are encouraged to purchase this manual (required in some courses) and become familiar with its content as well as consult the Argosy University catalog for further information regarding academic dishonesty and plagiarism.

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http://library.argosy.edu/infolit/

http://library.argosy.edu/misc/onlinedblist.html

http://library.argosy.edu/

Scholarly writing: The faculty at Argosy University is dedicated to providing a learning environment that supports scholarly and ethical writing, free from academic dishonesty and plagiarism. This includes the proper and appropriate referencing of all sources. You may be asked to submit your course assignments through “Turnitin,” (www.turnitin.com), an online resource established to help educators develop writing/research skills and detect potential cases of academic dishonesty. Turnitin compares submitted papers to billions of pages of content and provides a comparison report to your instructor. This comparison detects papers that share common information and duplicative language.

Americans with Disabilities Act Policy

It is the policy of Argosy University to make reasonable accommodations for qualified students with disabilities, in accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA). If a student with disabilities needs accommodations, the student must notify the Director of Student Services. Procedures for documenting student disability and the development of reasonable accommodations will be provided to the student upon request.

Students will be notified by the Director of Student Services when each request for accommodation is approved or denied in writing via a designated form. To receive accommodation in class, it is the student’s responsibility to present the form (at his or her discretion) to the instructor. In an effort to protect student privacy, the Department of Student Services will not discuss the accommodation needs of any student with instructors. Faculty may not make accommodations for individuals who have not been approved in this manner.

The Argosy University Statement Regarding Diversity

Argosy University prepares students to serve populations with diverse social, ethnic, economic, and educational experiences. Both the academic and training curricula are designed to provide an environment in which students can develop the skills and attitudes essential to working with people from a wide range of backgrounds.

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http://www.turnitin.com/

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