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KENTUCKY STATEWIDE AVIATION SYSTEM PLAN
4‐1
4 Aviation Trends and Issues
Recenttrends,bothnationalandstatewide,areimportantconsiderationsinthedevelopmentofanaviationsystemplan,asthesetrendscaninfluencethesupplyanddemandforaviationservices.Fluctuatingtrendsregardingaviationusageandeconomicswingsresultingfromthenation’sbusinesscycleandpreviousperiodsofrecordhighoilpriceshaveallimpactedaviationdemand.ManyofthesenationaltrendsarereflectedwithinKentucky,alongwithaviationdevelopmentsthatareuniquetothestate.
Thischapterexaminestrendsrelatingtogeneralaviation,aircargo,multimodalissues,andtechnologythatareexpectedtohaveaninfluenceonaviationinKentucky.Notethatthischapterisbasedonthebestavailabledataasofthefirstquarterof2016.
General Aviation Trends Thereareanumberofcomponentsthatcanbeexaminedtogainanunderstandingofgeneralaviation(GA)trends.KeyamongthesearethenumberandtypeofnewGAaircraftenteringthefleet,thenumberofactiveGAaircraft,andthenumberofpilotsflyingintheU.S.ThefollowingsectionsexamineeachoftheseaspectsofGA,startingwithnewGAaircraftproducedbyyearsince1975.TheanalysisofnewaircraftprovidesanoverviewofhowGAhasperformedoverthelongterm,whiletheassessmentofactiveGAaircraftandpilotsfocusesonthetrendssince2010.
Inadditiontotheseactivitytrends,thischapterwillalsosummarizewhatisbeingdonetoaddressleadinaviationfuel,andhowthatcouldimpactGAactivity.
NewGeneralAviationAircraftOneindicatorofthehowtheGAindustryisperformingisthenumberofaircraftdeliveredperyearandtheirtotalvalue.Figure4‐1showsthisdatastartingin1975.Aswithanyindustry,GAissubjecttotheupsanddownsofthebusinesscycle.However,GAisanindustrythatisamongthefirsttosuffertheeffectsofaneconomicdownturnandthelasttorecoverfromit.ThiscanclearlybeseeninFigure4‐1,whereaircraftshipmentscanbeseentailingoffbeforeeachmajorU.S.recessionandnotrecoveringuntilwellaftertherecessionends.
Thenumberofaircraftsoldwasdominatedbypistonaircraftfrom1975untiltheearly1980s,whenincreasingproductliabilitycostsresultedinacontractionofthemanufacturingoftheseaircraft.AprimeexampleofthismanufacturingretrenchmentisCessnaAircraftCompany,whichceasedproductionofallitssingle‐enginepistonaircraftin1986,primarilyduetoliabilityconcerns.Bythemid‐1990s,deliveriesofsingle‐enginepistonaircrafthadfallenfromits1978peakby97percent,andwasnowonparwiththenumberofturbineaircraftshipped.
In1994,legislationwentintoeffectthatshieldedGAmanufacturersfromlawsuitsonaircraftandaviationpartsthatweremorethan18yearsold.Withthisprotectioninplace,GAshipmentsofbothpistonandturbineGAaircraftbeganaslowbutsteadyrise,withpistonaircraftgrowthoutpacingturbineaircraft.Thislasteduntilthetechbubbleburstinearly2001,followedbytheterroristattacksofSeptember11th.GAmanufacturingrecoveredbriefly,butthenwashitbytherecessionprecipitatedbythehousingcollapsethatstartedinDecember2007.
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Thesaleofturbineaircrafthasfollowedapatternsimilartothatofpistonaircraftonlyatsmallervolumes,mirroringtheriseandfallofthebusinesscycle.Beginninginthemid‐1990s,thenumberofjetaircraftsoldbeganexceedingthenumberofturbopropaircraftsold,resultinginasignificantriseinthevalueofaircraftsold.Theincreaseduseofbusinessaviation,especiallythegrowthoffractionalownershipthroughcompaniessuchasNetJetsandFlightOptions,hashelpedspurthegrowthinturbineaircraftsales.
Figure4‐1U.S.AircraftShippedandSold
Source:2014GeneralAviationStatisticalDatabook&2015IndustryOutlook.
Itisclearthatthenumberofaircraftshippedannuallyhasnotrecoveredtothelevelsseenpriortothe2008recession.TheslowrecoveryfromtherecentrecessionisamajorfactordrivingrecenttrendsinGA,asthefollowingsectionswillalsodemonstrate.
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ActiveGeneralAviationAircraftThenumberofnewaircraftenteringthefleetisonlyapartialindicatorofthehealthoftheGAindustry.Thelevelofactivityofexistingaircraftalsoprovidesasignofhowtheindustryisperforming.TheFAAtracksthenumberofactiveaircraftannually,whichisdefinedasanaircraftthatisregisteredandflewforatleastonehourduringtheyear.TheFAArecordsthedatausingthefollowingninecategoriesofgeneralaviationaircraft.
Single‐EnginePiston–Thesearefixed‐wingaircraftpoweredbyasinglepistonengine. Multi‐EnginePiston–Thesearefixed‐wingaircraft,generallypoweredbytwo,butsometimes
more,pistonengines. Turboprop–Thesearefixed‐wingaircraftpoweredbyoneormoreturbineenginesthatdrive
oneormorepropellers. Turbojet–Thesearefixed‐wingaircraftpoweredbyoneormorejetengines. PistonRotorcraft–Thesearesingle‐enginerotorcraft,eitherhelicoptersorgyroplanes,that
arepoweredbyapistonengine. TurbineRotorcraft–Thesearerotorcraft,eitherhelicoptersorgyroplanes,thatarepowered
byoneormoreturbineengines. Experimental–Generally,theseaircraft,sometimescalledkit‐builtaircraft,areaircraftthat
theoriginalownerbuiltfromkitssuppliedbyamanufacturer. Sport–Thesearesingle‐enginepiston‐poweredaircraftthatmeettherequirementsofthe
LightSportAircraftregulation.Theyarelimitedinanumberofareas,includingweightandnumberofseats.
Other–Thiscategoryofaircraftcapturesanassortmentofflyingmachinesthatdonotfitintotheothercategories.Thisincludesaircraftsuchasgliders,airships,andballoons.
AsshowninFigure4‐2,thetotalnumberofactiveaircraftintheU.S.hasdeclinedsince2010byapproximately20,000aircraft,orabout9percentoftheGAfleet.Thepistonfleetislargelyresponsiblefordrivingthisdecline.Bothsingle‐andmulti‐enginepistonaircraftdeclinedduringthisperiod,withsingle‐enginepistonaircraftaccountingforthelossofmorethan14,000aircraft,orabout10percentofthesingle‐enginepistonfleet.Pistonrotorcraftalsofellbyabout10percentovertheperiod.
Intermsofabsolutenumbers,thehomebuiltmarketcontributedthelargestincreasebyaddingmorethan1,600aircraftsince2010,whichisa7percentincrease.Allturbine‐poweredaircraftexhibitedgrowthsince2010,withturbojetsleadingthewaywith9percentgrowth,followedbyturbinerotorcraftat7percentgrowth.Turbopropsincreasedbyamodest2percentduringtheperiod.Thisgrowthinturbineaircraftactivityisadditionalevidenceoftheincreasinguseofbusinessaircraft,whichrelyheavilyonturbineaircraft.
OneadjustmentthatisobviousinFigure4‐2isachangeintheclassificationofexperimentallightsportaircraft.Priorto2012,theseaircraftweregroupedunderthesportcategory.Startingin2012,theywereswitchedtotheexperimentalcategory,asreflectedinthejumpthatexperimentalaircraftexperiencedin2012andthedropthatsportaircraftshowin2012.
Thereareanumberoffactorsbehindthedeclineinactiveaircraft.Asdiscussedpreviously,thenumberofnewaircraftproducedissignificantlybelowlevelsseenpriortothelastrecession,sotheinjectionofnewaircrafttotheGAfleetisrelativelylowandhascontributedtothedeclineinaircraftactivity.
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ThesetrendsarereflectedinbasedaircraftinKentucky.From2005to2015,basedaircraftatKentucky’sairportshavedroppedfrom1,976to1,693,anaverageannualrateofdeclineof1.7percent.1
Figure4‐2U.S.ActiveAircraft,2010to2015
Note:ClassificationofExperimentalLightSportAircraftchangedfromSportAircrafttoExperimentalin2012.
Source:FAAAerospaceForecastFY2016‐2036.
PilotPopulationThepilotpopulationisaprimedriverofGAactivity.Withoutpilots,planescannotflyanddemandforassociatedaviationservices,foundatmanyGAairports,suffers.PilotcertificatesfallintooneofeightclassificationsbytheFAA:
StudentPilot–Pilotsintraining.Studentpilotsmayflyaircraftsolowhenproperlyauthorizedbyaflightinstructor.Unlikeotherpilotcertificates,studentpilotcertificatesexpire60monthsaftertheyareissuedforthoseunder40and24monthsaftertheyareissuedforthoseover40.
RecreationalPilot–Certifiedtoflyaircraftwithupto180horsepowerandfourseats,butmayonlycarryonepassenger.
SportPilot–Certifiedtoflylightsportaircraft.Limitedtotwoseatsandday‐timeflyingonly. PrivatePilot–Certifiedtoflyaircraft,aslongasitisnotforcompensationorhire.
1 Based aircraft reported by the FAA’s Terminal Area Forecast for years 2005 and 2015.
223,370 220,453209,034
199,927 204,408 203,880
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Aircraft Multi‐Engine Piston Turboprop
Turbojet Piston Rotorcraft Turbine Rotorcraft
Experimental Sport Other
Single‐Engine Piston
Number of Aircraft by Type To
tal Number o
f Aircraft
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KENTUCKY STATEWIDE AVIATION SYSTEM PLAN
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CommercialPilot–Certifiedtoflyforcompensationorhire.Requiredtohave250hoursofflighttime.
AirlineTransportPilot–Certificationrequiredtoflyaspilotincommandorfirstofficerforascheduledairline.Requiredtohave1,500hoursofflighttime.
RotorcraftPilot–Pilotscertifiedtoflyhelicoptersandgyrocopters.Thiscategoryincludesthosepeoplethatarecertifiedtoflyonlyrotorcraft.Pilotsthatarecertifiedtoflybothfixedwingandrotorcraftareincludedintheappropriatepreviouslymentionedcategories.
GliderPilot–Pilotscertifiedtoflyglidersandsailplanes.Thiscategoryincludesthosepeoplethatarecertifiedtoflyonlygliders.Pilotsthatarecertifiedtoflyaircraftinadditiontoglidersareincludedintheappropriatepreviouslymentionedcategories.
Figure4‐3showsthatthetotalnumberofpilotsintheU.S.hasfallenbynearly38,000since2010,despitetheobviousgrowthinairlinetransportpilotsduringthatperiod.Thelossofprivateandcommercialpilotsaretheprimaryfactorscontributingtothedeclineintheoverallpilotpopulation.
Thedropincommercialpilots,alongwiththeincreaseinairlinetransportpilots,ispartlyexplainedbyCongressionalactionthatincreasedtheminimumqualificationsrequiredforfirstofficers.TheAirlineSafetyandFederalAviationAdministrationExtensionActof2010stipulatedthatafterAugust2013,onlyairlinetransportpilotscouldserveasflightcrewmembersforscheduledairlineflights(part121).Priortothislegislation,firstofficersonlyneededtopossessacommercialpilotcertificate.
Figure4‐3U.S.PilotTrends,2010to2015
Source:FAAAerospaceForecastFY2016‐2036.
627,588 617,128 610,576 599,086 593,499 590,039
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Pilots Student Pilots Recreational Pilots
Sport Pilots Private Pilots Commercial Pilots
Airline Transport Pilots Rotorcraft Pilots Glider Pilots
Number of Pilots by Category
Total N
umber o
f Pilots
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Therelativegrowthinsportpilots,risingnearly50percentsince2010,haslittleimpactontheoverallpilotpopulationbecauseofthetotalnumberofsportpilotsisnotsignificantwhencomparedtothenumberofprivateandcommercialpilots.Thesameistrueforrotorcraftpilots,whichincreasedbyslightlymorethan1percentduringtheperiod.Likewise,thesmallnumberofrecreationalandgliderpilotsmeantthattheirdeclinesof10percentand9percent,respectively,hadlittleimpactontheoverallpilotnumbers.Onebrightspotsince2010istheriseinstudentpilotnumbers,whichincreasedby3percentsince2010.Sincestudentpilotsaresteppingstonestohigherpilotratings,growthinstudentpilotsoffersthepromiseoffuturegrowthinotherpilotratings.
Anobviousfactorinthedownwardtrendofpilotsisthecostassociatedwithbecomingapilot.Bothinrelativeandabsoluteterms,thecostofflighttraininghasincreasedovertheyears.Inabsoluteterms,thecostofflighttraininghasrisenalongwiththepriceoftrainingaircraft,fuel,insurance,andotherexpensesofflying.Inrelativeterms,thecostofflyinghasrisenaslessexpensivealternativeshavebecomemorereadilyavailable,asnotedinastudybyHarryR.ClementsoftheWichitaStateUniversityDepartmentofEconomics.
ThisstudyshowedthatGAactivitydecreasesascommercialairlinetravelhasbecomelessexpensiveandbecomemoreaccessible.Sincethederegulationoftheairlineindustryin1978,thestudyshowedthata10percentincreaseinairlinetraveldrovedownGAtravelby3percent,indicatingthatoneisbeingsubstitutedfortheother.ThestudyalsoshowedthatincreasingairspaceregulationhasresultedinhigherGAtrainingcosts,whichservetodiscourageentryintotheGAindustry.
Finally,thestudyfoundthatGAactivitydecreaseswhenothercompetingformsofentertainment(thattendtobelessexpensive)increase,suchasskydiving.Clementsspeculatedthatmotorcycling,scubadiving,mountainclimbing,andautoracingofferalternativestoflyingandhavestimulatedthedeclineintheprivatepilotpopulation.
Takentogether,allofthesefactorsserveasbarrierstoentrytoGA,andarecontributingfactorstothedeclineintheprivatepilotpopulation.
PilotpopulationtrendswithinKentuckymirrormanyofthoseseenatthenationallevel.OneexceptionisKentucky’sgrowthinstudentpilots,supportedinpartbytheaviationprogramatEasternKentuckyUniversity,whichisdescribedinmoredetailinChapter5:UniqueAspectsofAviationinKentucky.ThisgrowthinstudentpilotshashelpedmitigatethedeclineofthetotalpilotpopulationinKentucky.
FutureofAvgasAviationgasoline,oravgas,istheprimaryaviationfuelusedbypiston‐poweredaircraft.Itisnotableforbeingtheonlyremainingtransportationfuelstillcontaininglead,whichisusedtoprotectagainstenginedetonation,alsoknownasknocking.Itisgenerallyacknowledgedthatavgaswillnotbeavailableinthefuture,foranumberofreasons.Forstarters,theonlywesternmanufactureroftheleadadditiveisInnospec,aU.S.specialtychemicalcompanythatcouldchoosetoceaseproductionforliability,financial,orotherreasons.Anotherfactorispressurefromenvironmentalists,whowanttoeliminatetheuseofleadedfuel.TheyarelobbyingtheU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency(EPA)toeliminatetheuseofleadinavgasthroughregulation.
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Inlightofthesefactors,thegeneralaviationindustryiscollaboratingwiththeFAAtodevelopareplacementforavgas.However,thetechnicalandregulatoryrequirements,aswellastheprocessofapproval,haveproventobetimeconsuming,withexpertsin2012estimatingthatareplacementfuelwouldnotbeavailablecommerciallyuntil2023.
Effortstofindareplacementforavgasinvolveextensiveresearchbyfuelcompaniesandcollaborationbetweenaviationstakeholders–suchasaircraftmanufacturers,fuelrefiners,andaviationassociations–andtheFAAandEPA.AkeycomponentofthiscollaborationtakestheformofthePistonAviationFuelsInitiative(PAFI),anindustry‐governmentinitiativestartedin2013.PAFIisworkingtowarddevelopingaviableunleadedaviationfuelby2018.AttheendofMarch2016,thePAFIprocessselectedtwofuelsoutof17submittedinthefirstphaseoftesting.ShellandSwiftFuelseachsubmittedoneofthetwoselectedfuels,whichwillgoontoasecondphaseoftestingexpectedtolastuntil2018.
EventhoughtheGAindustryismovingtowardalead‐freefuelsolution,thelongtimelineanduncertaintyoftheoutcomeactasadditionalbarrierstoentryforwould‐beaviators.
SummaryAnanalysisofGAparametersshowsthatrecenttrendshavenotbeenpositive.Newaircraftdeliveries,thenumberofactiveaircraft,andtheoverallpilotpopulationhavesufferedfromtherecessionthatbeganinlate2007andhavenotrecoveredtopre‐recessionlevels.Thehighcostofaviationhascontributedtothedeclineinaviationactivity.UncertaintyinregardstoleadedaviationfuelanditspossiblereplacementhindersthegrowthoftheportionofGAthatdependsuponleadedfuel.WhiletherearesomesegmentsofGAthathaveshownpromise,suchasthebusinessuseofGAaircraftandthenichemarketsofexperimentalaircraft,andthesportpilotsector,theoveralltrendinGAislikelytobenegativeforatleasttheshortterm,ifnotlonger.
Atthestatelevel,Kentuckyislikelytofeeltheimpactsofthesetrends.However,Kentuckydoeshaveanumberofpositiveattributesintermsofaviation.RecentinitiativeshavehelpedboostthestudentpilotpopulationinKentucky,thankstoaviationeducationeffortsdescribedinChapter5.Additionally,aerospaceproductsmanufacturedinKentuckyhavecontinuedtobethenumberoneexportforseveralyears,surpassingevenautomobilesandautomotiveparts.In2016,Kentucky’saerospacebusinessesexported$10.8billionworthofproducts.
Air Cargo Trends Aircargoplaysavitalroleinglobalcommerce,andKentucky’sairportsplayamajorroleinfacilitatingtheflowofaircargoonglobal,national,andregionalscales.AircargoactivityissupportedatKentucky’scommercialserviceairportsintheformofbellycargocarriedonpassengerairlinesandexpressfreightcarriedbyintegratedexpresscarriers.InadditiontothesecommercialserviceairportstherearealsoseveralGAairportswithinKentuckythatsupportaircargoactivity.
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StatewideTrendsKentuckyishometotwomajoraircargohubsoperatedbyintegratedexpresscarriersDHLandUPS.DHLoperatesitsNorthAmericanhubatCincinnati/NorthernKentuckyInternationalAirport(CVG),whileUPSoperatesits‘Worldport’hubatLouisvilleInternationalAirport(SDF).Thesehubsserveassortingfacilitiesthathandlesignificantvolumesofaircargothroughput,asmallfractionofwhichoriginatesinorisdestinedforKentucky.Kentuckybenefitsnotonlyfromthedirecteconomicactivitythatthehubsprovide,butalsofromthegrowthinthewarehousingand
distributionindustrythathasbeenspurredbythepresenceofthesehubs.
SincethelaunchofUPS’NextDayAirServicein1982,UPS’sWorldporthasundergonenumerousexpansionstobecomethe5.2millionsquarefootprocessingfacilitythatitistoday.Itisthelargestfullyautomatedpackagehandlingfacilityinthe
world,capableofsortingupto416,000packagesanhour.Theoperationcurrentlyturnsoverapproximately130aircraftdaily,processinganaverageof1.6millionpackagesperdaywitharecordofnearly5millionpackagesonitspeakdayof2013.Thefacilityhas70aircraftdocksand155milesofconveyorsthattransportparcelsfromaroundtheworld.2ThepresenceofUPSdrivesLouisvilleInternationalAirport’splaceamongtheworld’stopaircargoairports,whichin2015ranksthirdinNorthAmericaandinthetop‐tenglobally.Theairporthandlednearly2.6milliontonsin2015,representingagrowthof3percentover2014and19percentover2008.3
In2009,DHLadjusteditsbusinessmodel,ceasingitsU.S.domesticdeliveryservicetofocussolelyoninternationalshipments,andsubsequentlyrelocateditshubfromWilmington,Ohio,toCincinnati/NorthernKentuckyInternationalAirport.DHL’snewNorthAmericanhubatCVGservesasaninternationalgatewayforshippingbetweenNorthAmericaandglobalmarkets.Itisoneofthreeglobal“SuperHubs”fromwhichDHLExpressserves220countries.SinceDHL’sarrival,totalcargotonnageatCincinnati/NorthernKentuckyInternationalhasincreasedfrom40,000tonsin2008toover800,000tonsin2015,representinganincreaseof1,910percent.From2014to2015,CVG’scargotonnagegrewby12percent,ranking10thinNorthAmerica.4Since2009,DHLhasinvested$105millioninitshuband
2 http://www.pressroom.ups.com/Fact+Sheets/UPS+Worldport+Facts 3 http://www.aci‐na.org/content/airport‐traffic‐reports 4 http://www.aci‐na.org/content/airport‐traffic‐reports
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planstoinvestanadditional$46milliontocontinueincreasingoperationalcapacitytomeetdemand,whichislargelydrivenbygrowthine‐commerce.5,6
CVG’saircargotonnageispoisedtocontinuegrowingasAmazonannouncedinearly2017itsplanstobuildacentralizedhubatCVGforitsnewlyformedcargoairline,PrimeAir.Amazon’s$1.5billioninvestmentwillresultina3millionsquarefootfacilityexpectedtoaccommodateexpresse‐commercetrafficfrommorethan200dailytakeoffsandlandingsbythePrimeAirfleet.Serviceisexpectedtocommenceinthespringof2017,andthe
newfacilitywillemploymorethan2,000peoplewhencompleted.7
HistoricaircargotonnageforKentucky’scommercialserviceairportsispresentedinTable4‐1.
5 http://www.cvgairport.com/about/news/facts 6 http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2014/11/20/dhl‐express‐expansion‐boone‐county‐hebron‐cvg/70007328/ 7 http://aircargoworld.com/amazon‐to‐move‐prime‐air‐cargo‐hub‐to‐cincinnati/
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KENTUCKY STATEWIDE AVIATION SYSTEM PLAN
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Table4‐1HistoricAirCargoTonnageatKentuckyAirports
Year CVG LEX PAH SDF TOTAL
1997 399,731 3,287 119 1,483,371 1,886,508
1998 401,646 3,031 303 1,537,721 1,942,702
1999 440,780 2,401 200 1,587,762 2,031,142
2000 430,805 2,381 303 1,674,991 2,108,480
2001 354,852 1,560 86 1,619,114 1,975,612
2002 385,824 962 69 1,680,120 2,066,975
2003 432,872 370 34 1,783,908 2,217,184
2004 455,590 188 35 1,917,459 2,373,273
2005 277,343 284 20 2,000,864 2,278,511
2006 47,718 250 8 2,185,916 2,233,892
2007 43,752 210 36 2,291,644 2,335,642
2008 40,014 186 11 2,176,264 2,216,476
2009 146,745 136 6 2,148,984 2,295,872
2010 409,284 82 0 2,388,327 2,797,693
2011 530,949 86 ‐ 2,412,319 2,943,354
2012 593,786 107 ‐ 2,390,211 2,984,104
2013 655,345 121 ‐ 2,442,806 3,098,273
2014 719,440 138 ‐ 2,527,851 3,247,430
2015* 804,088 ** ‐ 2,591,155 3,395,243
AAGR
2010‐2015 14% ‐100% ‐100% 2% 4%
2005‐2015 11% ‐100% ‐100% 3% 4%
1997‐2015 4% ‐100% ‐100% 3% 3%
*2015datadirectlyfromairportrecords;ACI‐NAdatanotyetpublished.**LEXaircargostatisticsnotavailableasofQ12016.
Source:AirportsCouncilInternational‐NorthAmerica,AirportRecords.
AsshowninTable4‐1,Cincinnati/NorthernKentuckyInternationalhasexperiencedthemostdramaticgrowthinrecentyears,withanaverageannualgrowthof14percentsince2010and11percentsince2005.TonnageatLouisvilleInternationalhasincreasedsteadilywithanaverageannualgrowthrateof3percentsince1997.Year‐over‐year,tonnageatLouisvilleInternationalhasexperiencedgrowthin15of17years,withtheexceptionof2008,2009,and2012.BlueGrassAirportmaintainsasteadyvolumeofpassengerairlinebellycargoeachyear,butisdownfromitsoverallpeaktonnageofabout3,200tonsin1997.DuetotheproximityofBlueGrassAirporttonearbyhubsinNorthernKentuckyandLouisville,themajorityofaircargoistruckedtoandfromthearea.BarkleyRegionalAirporthasnotexperiencedaircargotonnagesince2009forthesamereasonsasBlueGrassAirport,plusitiswithincloseproximitytoFedEx’sMemphishub.
Statewide,totalaircargotonnageisdrivenbythetwoaircargohuboperationsatCVGandSDF.In2015,SDFrepresentedroughly76percentofthetotalstatewideaircargotonnage,whileCVGmadeuptheremaining24percent.AsshowninFigure4‐4,thestrongstatewidegrowthexperiencedfrom2010topresentcanbeattributedtotheestablishmentofDHL’snewNorthAmericanHubatCVG.
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KENTUCKY STATEWIDE AVIATION SYSTEM PLAN
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Figure4‐4HistoricAirCargoTonnage1997‐2015,CVG&SDF
Note:2015datadirectlyfromairportrecords;ACI‐NAdatanotyetpublished.
Source:AirportsCouncilInternational‐NorthAmerica,AirportRecords.
PriortotheestablishmentofitsWilmingtonhub,whichwasoperatedfrom2003to2009,DHLpreviouslyoperatedoutofCVG.DHL’sdeparturefromandreturntoCVGisevidentintonnagedatashownfortheseyearsinFigure4‐4.CVG’sdeclineintonnagealsocorrespondstoDeltaAirLines2005bankruptcyandsubsequentflightcuts.Delta’s2008mergerwithNorthwestAirlinesalsoresultedinfurtherreductioninflights,contributingtoadeclineinpassengerbellycargoattheairport–althoughitisstillarelativelysmallfractionofoveralltonnage.
NotincludingKentucky’stwoaircargohubairports,thestate’stworemainingcommercialserviceairportswithmeasureablequantitiesofaircargotonnageareBlueGrassAirportandBarkleyRegionalAirport.AsshowninFigure4‐5,theseairportshaveseenstrongdeclinesinaircargotonnagesince1997.
‐
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Short Tons
CVG SDF
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Figure4‐5HistoricAirCargoTonnage1997‐2014,LEX&PAH
Source:AirportsCouncilInternational‐NorthAmerica,AirportRecords.
2015datanotavailableasofQ12016.
Kentuckyisanattractivelocationforaircargohubsduetoitsgenerallytemperateweatherandshorttraveltimes.FromUPS’Louisvillehub,approximately75percentoftheU.S.populationisreachablewithinatwo‐hourflight,andafour‐hourflightallowsforaccessto95percentoftheU.S.population.CVGisapproximately80milesfromSDFsosimilarfiguresapply.Inturn,thesurroundingareasofCVGandSDFhavebecomeprimespotsforamultitudeofcompaniestosetuptheirowndistributionfacilitiesthankstothepresenceofUPSandDHLandtheirextensiveglobalreach.BusinessesbenefitfrombeinginsuchcloseproximitytoKentucky’saircargohubsbyallowinglaterpickuptimes,shortertotaldeliverytime,andreducedshippingcosts.Morethan140companieshavelocatedtoKentuckytobenearUPS’Worldport,includingmanynotablee‐commercebusinesses.8AsimilartrendisoccurringinthevicinityofCVG.
Majorbrands’distributioncenterslocatedinKentuckyincludeAmazon,AmericanGreetings,Browne‐Forman,CengageLearning,Chegg,DormanProducts,FruitoftheLoom,Gap/OldNavy,GeekSquad,GiltGroupe,GordonFoodServices,LeviStrauss,NastyGal,SunProducts,ToyotaNorthAmericanPartsCenter,TractorSupply,Walmart,andZappos.910AuniqueexampleisClearWaterFineFoods,whichoperatestheworld’slargestinlandlobstertankinLouisville,towhereNovaScotialobstersareshippedandkeptinsaltwatertanksat39degreesuntiltheyaresentviaUPSto
8 http://www.businessclimate.com/kentucky‐economic‐development/ups‐dhl‐put‐kentucky‐distribution‐map 9 http://midamericafreight.org/wp‐content/uploads/Kelly_TransportationsRoleInKentuckysEconomicDevelopment.pdf 10 http://www.businessclimate.com/kentucky‐economic‐development/kentuckys‐strong‐transportation‐system‐energizes‐business‐climate
‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Short Tons
LEX PAH
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KENTUCKY STATEWIDE AVIATION SYSTEM PLAN
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restaurantsacrossthecountry.GiltGroupeisafashionandhomedécorretailerthatoperatesa“flashsale”businessmodel,shippingbetween20,000and30,000unitsperdayfromtheirhightechfacilityinLouisville.BestBuyopeneditsGeekSquadCityjustsouthofSDF,whichoperatesasacentralizedrepairandrefurbishmentcenterfortech‐products.Priortoitsopeningin2006,repairsweremadeatvariouslocationsthroughoutthecountry.11Thesefirms,amongmanyothers,havelogisticsneedsthatarewellaccommodatedbyacombinationofKentuckyairportsandlogisticsinfrastructure.
GivenKentucky’sprominenceinthehorseracingandbreedingindustries,itisnosurprisethatKentuckyairportsfrequentlysupportequinechartertransportflights.Accordingtothe2012KentuckyEquineSurvey,BlueGrassAirportandLouisvilleInternationalAirportarebothrankedinthetopfiveU.S.airportsinvolvedinhorsetransportation.AircargocarrierssuchasKalittaAirsetupspecial“airstables”onmodifiedBoeing727aircraft.Horsesaregenerallyflowninternationallybutarealsoflowndomesticallyoverlongdistances.LargerairportssuchasNewYork(JFK),Miami(MIA),andLosAngeles(LAX),whichhaveU.S.Customs/quarantinefacilities,mustbeusedwhenahorseisfirstimportedintotheU.S.TheaforementionedairportsplusHouston(IAH),Chicago(ORD),andDallas(DFW)aremostcommonlyusedforexportinghorsesafterdepartingKentucky.InadditiontoKalittaAir,otherairlinesthatprovidelivestockshippingincludeElAl,CAL,Lufthansa,KLM,Cargolux,andFedEx.12AmoredetaileddiscussionofKentuckyairports’supportoftheequineindustryisprovidedinChapter5:UniqueAspectsofAviationinKentucky.
GACargoInadditiontothecommercialserviceairportsthatsupportaircargo,therearealsoseveralgeneralaviationairportsinKentuckythatsupportaircargoactivity.GAairportsarefrequentlyusedbyregionalaircargooperatorsandfeederairlinesastheyprovideseveraladvantagessuchasconvenienceandflexibility.Aircargoistypicallylightweight,time‐sensitive,andhigh‐value.Servingtheaircargoneedsofsmallmarketareasisoftenbetteraccommodatedbysmallaircraftoperatingatageneralaviationairportthatprovidesquickaccesstothatmarket.Thisisoftenmoreeconomicalthantruckingtomarketsthatarerelativelyisolatedfromthelargerdistributionnetworkorthosewherethecargodemanddoesnotwarrantafull‐sizetruck(LTLshipments).OperatingatGAairportsisparticularlyeconomicalwhentherearemultiplesmallmarketsthatcanbeservedbyoneaircraftoperatingamulti‐segmentroute.Kentuckyhasseveralsuchsmallmarketsanditsgeographymakesthestatewellsuitedforgeneralaviationaircargo.
AccordingtoBTST‐100datatwoofKentucky’sGAairports–BowlingGreen‐WarrenCountyRegionalandElizabethtownRegional–reportedsmallvolumesofaircargotonnagein2014.Theseaircargooperationscanrangefromscheduledshipmentsofmedicalsupplies/samplestoadhocshipmentsofautomotivesupplies.BowlingGreenishometoGeneralMotors’Corvetteassemblyplant,whichoftenrequireemergencyshipmentsofspecialtypartsortooling.
Theinventoryeffortofthesystemplanaskedairportstoreportbasicinformationonthefrequencyofaircargooperations.TheresultsoftheinventoryfoundthatofKentucky’s53public‐usegeneralaviationairports,27,or51percent,reportedhavingsomelevelofaircargoactivity.ThreeGAairportsreportedweeklyaircargooperations:AddingtonFieldinElizabethtown,BowmanFieldinLouisville,andMountSterling‐MontgomeryCounty.FourteenGAairportsreportedmonthlyair
11 http://www.businessclimate.com/kentucky‐economic‐development/distribution‐assets‐draw‐top‐firms‐kentucky 12 http://equinechronicleonline.com/modern‐pegasus‐horses‐flying‐internationally/
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cargoactivity,and10GAairportsreportedexperiencingaircargooperationsonaseasonalbasis.Allairportsreportingaircargoactivityonadailybasisareclassifiedascommercialserviceairports.
IndustryTrendsAtthenationallevel,duetobothinternalandexternalfactors,theaircargoindustryhasexperiencedsignificantvolatilitythathasresultedinrapidmaturationoftheindustry.Highfuelcostsandarecessedeconomicclimatecausedanindustryshifttotruckingwhereunitcostsavingsbecamehigherprioritythanshipmenttime.Ascustomerbasesandmarketsharescontracted,aircargocarriersadaptedbyconsolidating,shiftingbusinessmodels,orceasingoperations.KittyHawkAirCargoceasedoperatingin2008;BAXGlobalwasacquiredbyDBSchenkerin2005andceaseddomesticaircargoactivitiesin2011;UPSacquiredMenloWorldwide(formerlyEmeryWorldwide)in2004andclosedtheDaytonhubin2006;DHLacquiredAirborneExpressin2003andclosedtheWilmingtonhubin2009afterDHLwithdrewfromdomesticdelivery.
Asaresultofthesechanges,outsideofsmallerregionalcontractorcharteroperators,thecurrentlandscapeofthedomesticaircargoindustryhaseffectivelybecomeaduopolywithFedExandUPSasthelastmajorplayersleftstanding.However,e‐commercegiantAmazonispoisedtoshakeuptheindustrylandscapeasitannouncedinJanuary2016thatitwouldlease20Boeing767widebodyaircraftfromAirTransportServicesGroup(ATSG)andoperateoutoftheformerDHLhubatWilmingtonAirPark(ILN)inOhio.13
Amazonhasbeenoperatinga“trialexpressnetwork”outofWilmingtonsincemid‐2015onkeyroutestoAllentown,Pennsylvania;Dallas/FortWorth,Texas;OaklandandOntario,California;andTampa,Florida.EachoftheseairportsarewithincloseproximitytoAmazondistributioncenters.AmazonisalsooperatingasmallEuropeannetworkwithroutesfromWroclaw,Poland,toLutonorDoncasterintheU.K.,andKassel,Germany.TheadvantageforAmazonisthatthecompanyknowstheirownairtrafficvolumesandknowstheamountofcargothatneedstobetransportedbetweenits100‐plusdistributioncentersacrossthecountry.14Ratherthangiveitscargotoathirdpartywhereitwouldpayapremiumandcompeteforlimitedspacewithothercargoshippers,Amazonsavesmoneybycharteringaplaneitself.ItisyettobeseenwhatimpactAmazon’sentrywillhaveontheindustry–whetheritbeanincreaseintonnageorsimplyatonnageshiftawayfrommoreestablishedcarriers,Kentucky’saircargohubsarelikelytobeimpactedinsomemanner.
ApartfromtheAmazondevelopment,themostsignificantareaofgrowthfortheairfreightindustryisoninternationalsegmentsbetweenmajormarkets.ThemorematureU.S.domesticmarkethasbeenrelativelyflatoverthepastdecade,withtherapidgrowthof1980sand1990sadistantmemory.However,astheeconomycontinuestostrengthenandtradegrows,sotoowillthedemandforaircargo.TheBoeingWorldAirCargoForecast2014‐2015projectsgrowthof2.1percentfrom2013to2033forintra‐NorthAmericanaircargo.RegionaltradeforecastsbetweenNorthAmerica‐Asia,NorthAmerica‐Europe,andNorthAmerica‐LatinAmericaareallprojectedtobeoverfivepercentoverthesametimeperiod.
SummaryAircargoactivityissupportedbybothcommercialserviceandgeneralaviationairportsinKentucky.LouisvilleInternational,hometoUPS’‘Worldport’hub,hasbeenthebusiestaircargoairportinthestatesinceitsestablishmentinthe1980s.Cincinnati/NorthernKentucky
13 http://www.wsj.com/articles/cargo‐airline‐expands‐flights‐believed‐to‐be‐for‐amazon‐1455125482 14 http://motherboard.vice.com/read/a‐secretive‐air‐cargo‐operation‐is‐running‐in‐ohio‐and‐signs‐point‐to‐amazon
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InternationaliscurrentlyundergoingaresurgenceinaircargogrowthasaresultofDHLestablishingitsNorthAmericanhubattheairportin2009.Inadditiontointegratedexpresscargo,SDFandCVGalsosupportpassengerbellycargo,whichmakeupsignificantlysmallerpercentagesoftheirtotaltonnages.BlueGrassandBarkleyRegionalAirportsalsohaveahistoryofsupportingaircargoactivityintheformofpassengerbellycargo.GeneralaviationairportssuchasBowlingGreen‐WarrenCountyRegionalandElizabethtownRegionalalsoplayaroleinfacilitatingaircargooperationsbyregionalcargocarriersandfeederairlines.
Multimodal Issues AsafeandreliabletransportationsystemisvitaltoKentucky’sfutureeconomicgrowth,nationalcompetitiveness,andoverallqualityoflife.Kentucky’scentrallocationandaccessibilitytomajormultimodaltransportationroutesmakesKentuckyauniquelyattractiveenvironmentforbusiness,industry,andtourism.Multimodaltransportationinvolvesthemovementofpeopleandgoodsfromanorigintoadestinationusingmorethanonemodeoftransportation.Multimodaltransportationtypicallyincludesamixtureofmovementbyhighway,air,rail,waterway,publictransit,bicycling,orwalking.Multimodaltransportationprovidesapathwayformeetingtheincreaseddemandonourtransportationnetworkbyfacilitatingleast‐costtransportoptionsthataresafe,secure,andsustainable.15
Toprovideasafeandreliabletransportationsystemforthenext20years,stateandregionaltransportationplanningmustbecoordinatedandcomprehensive.The2014Long‐RangeStatewideTransportationPlan(LRSTP)wasdevelopedbytheKentuckyTransportationCabinet(KYTC)tomeetthevisionofKentucky’stransportationsystemoverthenext20yearswhiletakingintoconsiderationKentucky’suniquegeographicanddemographicchallenges.Thevisionforthestate’stransportationsystemwasdefinedas“awell‐maintained,multimodaltransportationsystemthatdeliverssafeandreliabletripswhichimproveKentucky’squalityoflife.”
DrawingprimarilyuponKYTC’s2014Long‐RangeStatewideTransportationPlan(LRSTP)andthe2016KentuckyFreightPlan,thissectiondiscussesthevariousmultimodalissuesinKentuckythathavethepotentialtoimpactaviationforbothpassengersandfreight.
MultimodalPassengerCommercialserviceairportsoftenhavemultimodallinkagesusedbybothpassengersandairportworkers,and,inKentucky,thesemultimodallinkagesconsistofautomobileaccessandbusservice.Generalaviationairportsdonottypicallyhavemajormultimodallinkages,withtheobviousexceptionofautomobileaccess.WhilethereisnorailconnectivitytoKentuckyairports,thereisalevelofferryusewhenaccessingKentuckyairports.Thefocusofthissectionisonpassenger‐relatedmultimodalactivities.
BusServiceInpractice,multimodaltransportationlinkshavelittleinfluenceongeneralaviationairports.Asseenthroughtheinventoryeffortofthisstudy,multimodalconnectivityisprimarilyrelatedtocommercialserviceairports.NoneofthecommercialserviceairportsinKentuckyareconnectedbypassengerrail,whilefourofthestate’sfivecommercialserviceairportsareservedbybus.TheTransitAuthorityofNorthernKentucky(TANK)providesbusservicefromdowntownCincinnatitothepassengerterminalandDHLhubfacilitiesatCVG,whiletheTransitAuthorityofRiverCity(TARC)providesbusservicetopassengerterminalandUPShubfacilitiesatLouisvilleInternational.TheTransitAuthorityofLexington(LexTran)offersbusservicetoBlueGrass
15 http://www.ktc.uky.edu/research/multmodal‐transportation/
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AirportfromthedowntownTransitCenter.BarkleyRegionalandOwensboro‐DaviessCountyRegionalofferon‐demandshuttleservice.Theinventoryeffortalsodeterminedthattwoofthe54generalaviationairportsinthestatesystemhavebusconnectivity:BowmanFieldinLouisvilleandLondon‐Corbin‐MageeField.Agreaternumberofairportshaveon‐demandtaxiandshuttleservicesavailabletousers.
PassengerRailWhilethereiscurrentlynodirectrailaccesstoanyKentuckyairport,thereisexistingrailserviceinthestateanddormantrailconceptsthathavethepotentialtoimpactairports.
IntercitypassengerrailtravelisprovidedbyAmtrak,toAshland,SouthPortsmouth/SouthShore,Maysville,andFulton,allalongKentucky’snorthernborder.
Lightrailorlightrailtransitistypicallyanurbanformofpublictransportwitha“light”passengercapacitythatoperatesprimarilyalongexclusiverightsofway.TheTransitAuthorityofRiverCity(TARC)inLouisville,whichrunsthelargesttransitsysteminKentucky,hasexploredtheconceptoflightrailinthepast.However,TARChaltedtheirlightrailstudy,TransportationTomorrow,in2004duetofundingandridershiphurdles.ProposalsforaraillinebetweendowntownCincinnatiandCincinnati/NorthernKentuckyInternationalhavebeendiscussedinthepast,butthereisnoprojectcurrentlyindevelopment.
FerryOperationsAnothernotableformofmultimodalconnectivitytoKentuckyairportscomesfromferries.Kentuckyusesaferryboatsystemtoaccommodaterivercrossingswhereconstructionofabridgeisnotafeasibleordesirablealternative.Thereare10ferryboatsoperatingwithinoralongthestate’sborders,sevenofwhichproviderivercrossingsatnocharge.Ferryboatsareconsidered“movingbridges”bytheKYTC,andprovidecrossingsovertheOhio,Mississippi,Green,Kentucky,andCumberlandRivers.FundingisprovidedbytheKYTCtofacilitateoperationofsevenoftheferryboats.ThefederalgovernmentprovidesfundingandoperationofthetwoferryboatslocatedinMammothCaveNationalPark.TheferryboatsmeetanimportantneedaspartoftheKentuckytransportationsystemandalthoughtheytransportrelativelylowvolumesoftraffic,Kentucky’sferriesarelikelytoindirectlyservetheneedsofsomeairport‐boundtraffic.
Oneexampleistheprivately‐operatedAndersonFerry,whichcrossestheOhioRivernorthofCincinnati/NorthernKentuckyInternational10mileswestofdowntownCincinnati.SinceitistheonlyautomobilecrossingbetweentheInterstate71/75bridgedowntownandtheInterstate275bridgeontheIndianaborder,theferryispopularamongresidentsofCincinnati’swesternsuburbsforcatchingflightsandgettingtowork.16Althoughlimited,itislikelythatKentucky’snineotherferriesprovideservicetoairportusers.Kentucky’sferriesarelistedinTable4‐2.
16 http://www.andersonferry.org/anderson_ferry_information.htm
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Table4‐2FerryboatsinKentucky
Ferry Crosses From To Sponsor
Anderson Ferry Ohio River Boone Co., KY Hamilton Co., OH Privately Operated
Augusta Ferry Ohio River Bracken Co., KY Brown Co., OH State Funded
Cave in Rock Ferry Ohio River Crittenden Co., KY Hardin Co., IL State Funded
Dorena‐Hickman Ferry Mississippi River Fulton Co., KY Mississippi Co., MO State Funded
Green River Ferry Green River Edmonson Co., KY Edmonson Co., KY Federally Funded
Houchin Ferry Green River Edmonson Co., KY Edmonson Co., KY Federally Funded
Reeds Ferry Green River Butler Co., KY Butler Co., KY State Funded
Rochester Ferry Green River Butler Co., KY Ohio Co., KY State Funded
Turkey Neck Bend Ferry Cumberland River Monroe Co., KY Monroe Co., KY State Funded
Valley View Ferry Kentucky River Fayette and Jessamine Co., KY Madison Co., KY State Funded
Source:KYTC
MultimodalFreightThemovementofgoodsandfreightthroughoutKentuckyisvitalforeachcitizenintheCommonwealth,fromtheaerospacepartsmachinisttothemineworkertothepharmacist.Eachhasaneedtotransportrawmaterials,manufacturedparts,andfinishedgoods;andthenproductstobesoldorpurchased.TherecentlycompletedKentuckyFreightPlan(KFP),whichisasupplementtothe2014LRSTP,outlinesthemultimodalissuesinKentuckyrelevanttofreight.Thissectiondiscussesmultimodalissueswithrelevancetoaviation.
MultimodalFreightSystemKentucky’smultimodalfreightsystemenablesthestatetocapitalizeonitsgeographicallystrategiclocation.Kentuckyislocatedwithin600milesofover60percentofthenation’spopulation,personalincomeandmanufacturing.Itscentrallocationfacilitatesthedistributionoffreighttoover30states.Kentucky’sfreightnetworkconsistsofextensivehighway,rail,maritime,andaviationinfrastructure.
HighwayThestateisservedby10interstatesand10stateparkways,includingmorethan500milesofthefederallydesignatedHighwayPrimaryFreightNetwork.Thisincludestwoofthenation’sbusiestnorth‐southinterstatecorridors(Interstates75and65),connectingindustriesacrossNorthAmericafromCanadatoMexico.KentuckyalsocontainsmajorportionsofInterstate64,whichisamajoreast‐westcorridorstretchingfromNorfolk,VAtoSt.Louis,MO.17
Kentucky’shighwaynetworkistheprimarymodeforfreightaccessingthemajorityofairportsinthestate,withtrucksservingastheonlyothermodefortransportingaircargo,eithertoorfromtheairport.
RailKentucky’sapproximately3,200milesofrailroadtrackcarryamyriadoffreightandprovideconnectivitytoallpointsintheU.S.ClassItrackmakesupapproximately2,300milesofKentucky’srailsystemandrepresentthemostheavilytravelledraillinesbyrevenue.KentuckyistraversedbyCSXT’sChicagotoNashville,TNandDetroit,MItoAtlanta,GAmainlines,byNorfolkSouthern’sCincinnati,OHtoAtlanta,GAandNewOrleans,LAmainlines,andbyCanadianNational’sChicago,ILtoNewOrleans,LAmainline.TheClassIrailroadsarecomplementedbyanetworkofregionaland
17 http://www.thinkkentucky.com/kyedc/pdfs/kytrannw.pdf.
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shortlinerailroadsthatprovidein‐stateconnectivity.ThePaducah&LouisvilleRailwayisoneexample,providingeast‐westserviceinKentucky,connectingwithsixothercarriersatthreelocationswithinthestate.
WaterKentuckyisborderedonthreesidesbynavigablerivers.TheOhioRiverformsthe660‐milenorthernborder,whichisthelongestofthethreeborderrivers.TheMississippiRiverformsthewesternborder,andtheeasternsideofthestateisborderedbytheBigSandyRiverandTugFork.Withover1,980milesofcommerciallynavigablewaterwaysand12publicportauthorities,Kentuckyalsoprovidesefficientyear‐roundwaterbornecommerce.TheOhioRiver,amajortributaryoftheMississippiRiverSystem,providesconnectivityasfarasPittsburgh,PA,Minneapolis,MN,andTulsa,OK.WesternKentuckysitsattheconfluenceoftheOhioandMississippiRivers,markingthenominaltransitionbetweentheUpperandLowerMississippiRiver.TheentireinlandwaterwaysystemprovidesawaterwaylinktoCanadaviatheGreatLakes,andtoMexicanandSouthAmericanmarketsviathedeepwaterportsofNewOrleans,LAandMobile,AL.KentuckyalsoconnectstheOhioRivertonumeroussoutherncitiessuchasNashville,TNviatheCumberlandRiver,Knoxville,TNandChattanooga,TNviatheTennesseeRiver,andMobile,ALviatheTennessee‐TombigbeeWaterway.18
Thisinlandwaterwaynetworkprovidesforefficientyear‐roundfreighttransportofbulkmaterials,agriculturalproducts,chemicals,minerals,metals,wood,manufacturedgoods,andcontainerizedfreight.Thestate’swell‐developedterminalsandriverportshavestrongconnectivitytorail.However,similartorail,waterbornecommercehasnointermodalconnectivitywithairtransportation.
AirTherearesixcommercialairportsinKentucky,includingtwomajorshippinghubsthatarehometoUPSWorldport(Louisville)andDHLExpress(Covington).In2014,theLouisvilleInternationalAirportwasrankedthirdintheU.S.forannualairfreighttonnageshipments.19Thereare28generalaviationairportswithrunwaylengthsgreaterthan5,000feet,allowingthemtohandlelargercargoplanes.Thistransportationnetwork,furtherhighlightedinthefollowingsections,makesitpracticaltomovefreightlocally,regionally,andtoallpointsoftheglobe.
Inaddition,Kentuckyisanattractivelocationforaircargohubsduetoitsgenerallytemperateweatherandshorttraveltimes.FromUPSLouisvillehub,approximately75percentoftheU.S.populationisreachablewithinatwo‐hourflight,andafour‐hourflightallowsforaccessto95percentoftheU.S.population.Amoredetaileddiscussionofaircargocanbefoundinaprevioussectionofthischapter.
IntermodalThemajorKentuckyinfrastructuredevelopmentinthepast10yearshasbeentheupswinginvolumeandinvestmentinrailroadcontainerintermodalfacilities.Kentuckyhasfourintermodalfacilitiesthatcantransfercontainersand/ortrailersofcargofromrailtotruck.NorfolkSouthernoperatesthreefacilities,twoinLouisvilleandoneinGeorgetown,andCSXopenedafacilityinLouisvillein2012.20Railcarriers,withtheassistanceofsomepublicsubsidies,haveinvestedheavilyincreatingterminalsbridgingthemodalcapabilitiesofroadways,rail,andmarinecargo.
18 http://www.thinkkentucky.com/kyedc/pdfs/kytrannw.pdf 19 Kentucky Cabinet for Economic Development, Kentucky Economic Development Guide, 2014. 20 Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, 2015 Kentucky Statewide Rail Plan, 2015.
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ThelocationofKentucky’sintermodalfacilitiesisadvantageousbecauseoftheKentuckymarket,thegoodconditionofKentucky’sroadsystem,andtheproximitytothenationalmarket.Whileintermodalgrowthoverthepast20yearswasprimarilydrivenbyinternationaltrade(specificallyimports),developmentofnewintermodalfacilitiesandrailroadoperatingandmarketingpracticeshasincreasedtheviabilityofall‐domesticintermodalmoves.
CriticalConnectionsandtheFirst/LastMileFreightmovementsbytruckinKentuckyrelyheavilyontheInterstateHighwaySystem.Becausetrucksperformtheinitialpickupanddeliveryformostgoodsandcommoditiesmovedbyair,rail,andwater,theconnectorroutesbetweenthefreighttransportationmodesareacriticallinktofacilitatethesmoothermovementoffreight.Oftentheseconnectorsor“lastmile”segmentsareunderlocaljurisdiction.
Asfreightvolumesgrow,theabilityofthemultimodalfreightsystemtoberesilientandresponsivetothefreightcommunity’sneedswillbeincreasinglyimportanttoKentucky’seconomicfuture.Itisimportanttomaintaintheconnectivitypointswithothermodesoftransportation.Theconnectionpointsarewheremostefficiencyisgainedorlostduringfreighttravel.InKentucky,theseconnectionpointsareairports,rail,truckdistributioncenters,pipelinesandportfacilities.TheroadsleadinguptomajorconnectivitypointsaredesignatedNationalHighwaySystem(NHS)IntermodalConnectorsbyFederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA)andKYTC.
IntermodalConnectorsareoftenmaintainedbydifferententitiesandfallintothecracksintheplanningandprogrammingprocess.Investmentinconnectorsisoftenincompetitionwithotherhigh‐profileprojectsfortheeverdecreasingtransportationfunding.Intermodalconnectorsoftensuffergeometricissues,pavementlifecycle,andotherchallengesthatcreateinefficienciesandreliabilityissuesforfreightusers.Table4‐3listsKentucky’sIntermodalConnectors.
AsshowninTable4‐3,thereareonlythreeNHSIntermodalConnectorsthataredirectlyrelatedtoairports(highlightedinblue).Althoughseveralotherconnectorscouldhavethepotentialtoimpactaviationfurtherdownstream,itisunlikelyduetothenatureofcommoditiestransportedviatheseconnectors.Airfreightistypicallylightweight,high‐value,andtime‐sensitive,withverylittleconnectivitytorailormaritimemodes.
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Table4‐3FreightNHSIntermodalConnectors
Facility Type Connector Description
Bells Lane Petroleum/Chemical Pipeline
Truck/Pipeline Terminal
KY 2056 from I‐264 W to the Louisville‐Kentucky River Floodwall
Bells Lane Petroleum/Chemical Port Port Terminal KY 2056 ‐ Louisville‐Kentucky Floodwall to I‐264
Campground Rd Petroleum Pipeline Truck/Pipeline Terminal
Campground Rd (Cane Run to Ralph), Kramers Ln (Cane Run to Campground), Ralph Ave (Cane Run to Campground Rd)
Campground Rd Petroleum Port Port Terminal Same as above
Cincinnati/N KY International Airport Airport KY 212 from I‐275 S to the Airport Roadway System
Clark Elkhorn Coal Tipple Truck/Rail Facility KY 1441 (US 460 to Clark Elkhorn Tipple #1 Ent), KY 1789 (US 460 to KY 1441)
Golden Oak Mining CO. Truck/Rail Facility KY 7 (KY 15 to KY 931), KY 931 (KY 7 to Facility)
Ivel Coal Tipple Truck/Rail Facility County Rd 1020 ‐ US 23 to Facility
Blue Grass Airport Airport FS 8550 ‐ US 60 to Facility
Louisville International Airport Airport Grade Ln (I‐264 to UPS Feedor Truck Entrance), FS 8879 (I‐264 to Facility)
Louisville/Ashland Oil/Chevron Dist. Center
Truck/Pipeline Terminal
KY 1681 ‐ KY 4 Interchange to Facility
McCoy Elkhorn Coal Corp Truck/Rail Facility KY 194 ‐ US 119 to Facility
Norfolk Southern Intermodal ‐ Georgetown
Truck/Rail Facility KY 620 ‐ Facility to I‐75 Interchange
Norfolk Southern Intermodal ‐ Louisville
Truck/Rail Facility Newburg Rd (I‐264 to Bishop), Bishop Ln (Newburg to Jennings), Jennings Ln (Bishop to Facility)
Owensboro Riverport Port Terminal KY 331 (US 60 to Harbor Rd), Harbor Rd (KY 331 to Facility)
Praise Dock Coal Tipple Truck/Rail Facility KY 80 from US 460 to Facility
Truck to Barge Coal Dock Cluster, Boyd County
Port Terminal KY 757 from US 23 near Lockwood to 2.3 Miles North
Source:FederalHighwayAdministration,NationalHighwaySystem:IntermodalConnectors,June18,2012.
IndustrySpotlight–AerospaceManufacturingKentucky’saerospaceindustryhasbecomethestate’sleadingmanufacturingexportbyvalue,exportingonequarter($7.8billion)ofKentucky’s$27.5billiontotalexports,accordingto2014CensusBureaufigures.Thissectorgrewby37.5percentbetween2013and2014alone.AmajorcontributortothisgrowthareKentucky’snumeroussuppliersforCincinnati‐basedGEAviation,whichisseeingsignificantgrowthindemandfornewer,morefuelefficientaircraftengines.21Withoutitsextensivefreighttransportationnetwork,Kentucky’saerospaceindustrywouldnotbeinthestrongpositionitistoday.
Havingtakennotice,theKentuckyCommissionofMilitaryAffairs(KCMA),incollaborationwiththeKentuckyCabinetforEconomicDevelopment(CED)andKYTC,arecurrentlyconductinganAerospace,AviationandDefenseIndustryStudythatwillmeasuretheeconomicimpact,potentialgrowthareas,educationandworkforcedevelopmentissues,anddeveloprecommendationsforsustainedgrowthwithinthispartoftheKentuckyeconomy.Theresultsofthestudywillenable
21 http://www.lanereport.com/48224/2015/05/kentuckys‐exports‐are‐flying‐high‐with‐aerospace/
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Kentuckycompaniestounderstandandparticipateintheaerospace,aviation,anddefenseindustry,whileprovidingleaders,andpolicy‐makerswithaneffective,updatedinformationsourcetoinformthelegislativeprocessandhelpcontinuetogrowthissectoroftheeconomy.Thisstudyisexpectedtobecompletedbytheendof2017.
SummaryOthermodesoftransportationthatcouldpotentiallyimpactaviationdemandarebus,lightrail,high‐speedpassengerrail,andmultimodalfreightconnectionswithairports.Withtheexceptionofthehighwayandroadnetworkimpactingpassengerandcargoaccess,developmentsinothermultimodalconceptscurrentlyhavelimiteddirectimpacttomuchoftheaviationsystem.Truckingservesastheprimary,ifnotonlymodetointerlinewithaircargo.DespiteKentucky’sextensiveaviation,rail,andtruckingcomponents,interliningbetweenaviationandrailisnoteconomicallyviableduetothedisparityinweightandvaluecharacteristicsofthegoodsshippedbythetwomodes.Althoughtheimpactisminimal,severalofKentucky’sairports,includingCVG,havemultimodalconnectivitywithferryserviceacrossitsmajorbodiesofwater.HavinganunderstandingofthemultimodalissuesthatimpactaviationacrossKentuckyisessentialforstrategicallyimprovingthestate’stransportationsystemandprovidesopportunitiestofostergrowthinkeyindustries–suchasaerospacemanufacturing.
Technology Trends Advancesintechnologyhavehelpedaviationevolveoveritshistory,makingflyingsafer,faster,andmoreefficient.Forexample,theinventionofthejetengineenabledaircrafttoflyfaster,farther,andmorereliablythanpiston‐poweredaircraft,openingnewcommercialopportunitiesforaviation.Technologicalchangesareexpectedtoalteraviation,improvingthewaypeopleandgoodsaremoved.TwoinnovationsthatarelikelytoimpactaviationinKentuckyarethedevelopmentofanewairtrafficcontroltechnologyknownasNextGen,andunmannedaerialvehicles.
NextGenTheNextGenerationAirTransportationSystem(NextGen)isalong‐termplanbytheFAAtotransformthewaytheU.S.airtransportationsystemoperatesthroughimprovementsinaircrafttrackingsystems,communicationsystems,andweathermonitoringandforecastingsystems.Verybroadly,NextGenaimstoshiftairnavigationfromaground‐basedsystemtoasatellite‐basedsystem.TheFAAexpectstheNextGensystemtodeliverincreasedoperationalefficienciesleadingtoshorterflightroutes,lessfuelconsumption,reducedcongestionanddelay,fewerenvironmentalimpacts,andgreatersafetyforaircraft.
NextGenisacomplexsystemcomprisedofmultiplecomponents.ThisnextsectionsummarizesthemajorcomponentsofNextGenandtheircurrentimplementationstatus.
AutomaticDependentSurveillance‐BroadcastAutomaticDependentSurveillance‐Broadcast(ADS‐B)isakeycomponentofNextGenandhastwosystems–ADS‐BOutandADS‐BIn.Usingacombinationofgroundstations,aircraftavionics,andthesatelliteglobalpositioningsystem(GPS),ADS‐BOutprovidesairtrafficcontrollerswithanaircraft’sposition,altitude,airspeed,andotherinformationcriticaltoensuringaircraftseparation.Becauseitreliesonsatellitesinsteadofground‐basedradars,ADS‐BOutimprovesthecoverageandsituationalawarenessofairtrafficcontrollers,includingtrackingofaircraftwhiletaxiingatairportswithadequatesurveillanceequipment,makinggroundmovementssaferforallaircraft.
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ADS‐BInallowsproperlyequippedaircrafttoreceiveweatherandaircraftpositioninformation(forcollisionavoidance)whileinflight.Thiswillbenefitbothgeneralaviationandcommercialairlineswithenhancedsafetybygivingpilotsanimprovedabilitytoavoidhazardousweatherandaugmenttheirresponsibilitytoseeandavoidotheraircraft.
TheFAAhasestablishedadeadlineofJanuary1,2020forallaircraftoperatingincontrolledairspacetobeequippedwithADS‐BOutavionics(theFAAdoesnotrequireaircrafttobeequippedwithADS‐BIn).ThecosttoequipandinstallADS‐BOutisseveralthousanddollarsperaircraft,whichisfairlyinsignificantfortheairlines,butcanbeasubstantialburdenonprivateaircraftowners.Furthermore,thebiggestadvantageforgeneralaviationaircraftisfromADS‐BIn,whichimposesadditionalequipmentandcostsontheaircraftowner.
CollaborativeAirTrafficManagementTechnologiesTheCollaborativeAirTrafficManagementTechnologies(CATMT)focusesonimprovingtheFAA’sTrafficFlowManagementSystem,whichisawiderangingsystemthatdeliversairtrafficdatatouserswiththeintentionofimprovingoverallawarenessofthenationalairtransportationsystem.Usersincludeairlines,military,airtrafficcontrol,andthetravelingpublic.Thedataavailableisextensive,andincludesweatheranditsimpactsonthenationalairspacesystem,flightschedules,andairtrafficcontrolactionsthatinfluencethenationalairspacesystem.
DataCommunicationsTheDataCommunications(DataComm)portionofNextGenenablescontrollersandpilotstocommunicatewithdigitallywrittenmessagesinsteadofovertheradio.Thisallowscomplexmessages,suchasflightplanroutings,tobetransmittedquicklyandwithreducedriskofcommunicationerrortoandfromtheaircraftcockpit.
TheFAAbeganDataCommin2013bydeliveringdepartureclearances(theinitialroutinganaircraftisexpectedtotake)toflightcrewsoperatingatMemphisInternationalandNewarkLibertyInternational.ThetrialsinMemphisandNewarkhaveshownthatuseofthesystemcanresultinfastertaxiouts,reduceddelays,andreducedpilotandcontrollerworkload.AsofMarch2016,18airtrafficcontroltowerswereequippedwithDataCommtechnology,includingLouisvilleInternational,whereUPSassistedtheFAAwithexpandingDataCommbeyondNewark.
TheFAAplanstoexpanditsDataCommservicesfromairtrafficcontroltowerstoall20airroutetrafficcontrolcenters(thefacilities,commonlyreferredtoascenters,thatprovideairtrafficcontrolservicesduringmostoftheenrouteportionofaflight)by2021.
NationalAirspaceSystemVoiceSystemTheNationalAirspaceSystemVoiceSystem(NVS)willreplacethecurrentswitch‐basedvoicecommunicationsystemusedbyairtrafficcontrolwitharouter‐basedsystemthatprovidesanationwidenetworking,monitoringandcommunicationsharingcapabilities.NVSisexpectedtoenabledirectcommunicationbetweenairtrafficcontrollersandaircrews,includingoperatorsofunmannedaerialvehicles.
Currentcommunicationtechnologylimitstheairtrafficcontrolfacilitiesthatanaircraftcrewcanreachbasedongeography.TheNVSenvisionsaninterconnectedairtrafficcontrolcommunicationsystemthatcanallowaircraftcrewstoreachanyairtrafficcontrolfacilitynetworkedintotheNVS.Thisisimportantforpurposesofshiftingworkloadbetweenfacilities,orintheeventthatanair
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trafficcontrolfacilityisoutofserviceanditscommunicationsneedtobeswitchedtoanotherfacility.TheNVSisundergoingtesting,whichisplannedforcompletionin2019.OperationalNVSisexpectedinthefirstFAAfacilitiesin2019withfulldeploymentofthesystemplannedfor2026.
NextGenWeatherTheweathercomponentoftheNextGensystemconsistsofseveralimprovementstothecollectionanddisseminationofweatherinformation.TheNextGenWeatherProcessorwillidentifyweatherhazardsintheterminalandenrouteenvironments.TheAviationWeatherDisplayconsolidatescurrentweatherdisplaysandprovidesconsistentweatherinformationforterminalandenrouteusers.TheCommonSupportServicesmodernizesinformationmanagementservicesforweather,andprovidestailoredweatherproductsthroughSystemWideInformationManagement(seebelow).Improvedweatherinformationisexpectedtoreduceweatherdelaysandenhancesafety.
SystemWideInformationManagementTheSystemWideInformationManagement(SWIM)infrastructureisaimedatallowingmoreefficientdatasharingamongaviationusers.Itaccomplishesthisbyestablishingdataformatstandards,translatingdatafromdifferentdatasystemsintostandardformats,andconsolidatingmultipledataconnectionsintoasingleaccesspoint.OneexampleofhowSWIMresultsinoperationalefficienciesisthatthesystemallowscollaborationbetweenairlinedispatchersandtrafficmanagersbyprovidingbothusergroupsaccesstocurrentweatherandflightplanninginformation.UsingSWIM‐enableddata,thesetwogroupsareabletocooperativelyreroutetrafficandtakeadvantageofthemostcurrentinformationonweather,airtrafficcontroltrafficmanagementinitiatives,runwayconfigurations,andairportdeicingoperations.TheFAAcompletedthefirstportionoftheSWIMinitiativein2015andanticipatesthesecondportionwillbecompletein2016.
EnrouteAutomationModernizationEnrouteAutomationModernization(ERAM)consistsofimprovementstoequipmentatairroutetrafficcontrolcentersthatwillbetterautomateanumberofairtrafficcontrolfunctions,extendsurveillancerange,andincreasethetrackingcapacityforeachcenterfromitscurrentlimitof1,100aircraftto1,900.AsofMarch2015,ERAMwasoperationalatall20ofthecontinentalcenters.Additionalenhancementsareplannedthrough2017.
TerminalAutomationModernizationandReplacementTerminalAutomationModernizationandReplacement(TAMR)isanequipmentupgradeprogramsimilartoERAM,butforairtrafficcontroltowersandterminalradarapproachcontrolfacilities.Thesefacilitiesreceiveimprovedradarprocessinganddisplaysystemsundertheprogram.The
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FAAisimplementingTAMRacrossthreephases,thefirsttwoofwhicharecompleted.TAMRisscheduledforcompletionby2020.
TheNextGensystemhasthepotentialtogreatlyimprovebothcommercialandGA.Forexample,thankstoNextGenmodificationsinarrivalproceduresatLouisville,UPSsavesmorethan7,700gallonsoffueleverynight.22Thisisaccomplishedthroughtheuseofcontinuousdescentarrivals,whichreducefuelburnandnoise.TheuseofADS‐BInandOutpromisestoincreasesituationalawarenessforallaviators,therebyenhancingsafety.
However,theGovernmentAccountabilityOfficehascriticizedthe$40billionprogramforbeingbehindscheduleandmorethan$4billionoverbudget.23Furthermore,thehighcostofequippingaircraftincomparisontothebenefitsreceived(especiallyforGA)mayrestrictthebenefitstoasmallerpoolofparticipantsthanoriginallyanticipated.Finally,concernshavebeenraisedovertheunencryptednatureofthesignalssentoutbyaircrafttosupportNextGentechnologies.TheNationalBusinessAviationAssociationhasstatedthatundertheNextGensystem,eachproperlyequippedaircraftbroadcastsitsaircrafttype,position,airspeed,anduniqueidentificationinrealtimeintheclear.Sincethesesignalsarenotencrypted,anyonewiththerightkindofreceivercancollectthedata.Infact,flighttrackingwebsitessuchasflightradar24.com,makeuseofthesekindsofreceiversoperatedbyvolunteersthatfeedthatdatatothewebsite.
UnmannedAerialSystemsThegrowthinunmannedaerialvehicles(UAV)hasbeenspurredbyimprovementsinenginetechnology,batterylife,andminiaturizationofcomponents,allofwhichhavedrivendownthecostsoftheseeasy‐to‐operatevehicles.Asaresult,recreationalandespeciallybusinessuseofUAVshasproliferated.ThefollowingindustriesarejustasampleofthebusinessesthatexpecttocapitalizeonUAVgrowth.
Agriculture–UAVoperationscanprovidefarmerswithinformationonhowtheircropsareperformingandprovidetheabilitytoapplypesticides,fertilizer,andseedtospecificareas.
Energy–Currently,pipelineandpowerlineinspectionsarecarriedoutbymannedaircraft.UAVoperationshavethepotentialtoconducttheseinspectionsforreducedcosts.
Retailing–CompaniessuchasAmazonandWalmartareexploringhowUAVscanbeusedtodeliverproductsorderedonline.
FilmIndustry–ThemovieandTVindustryexpecttomakeuseofUAVsasaerialfilmingplatforms.
22 NextGen Update: 2014 (2014). FAA, August 2014. 23 Air Traffic Control Modernization: Management Challenges Associated with Program Costs and Schedules Could Hinder NextGen Implementation (2012). Government Accountability Office, GAO‐12‐223, February 16, 2012.
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Insurance–UAVoperationscanprovidetheinsuranceindustrywithinformationmorequicklyandefficientlythancurrentmethods.Forexample,UAVscanbeusedtoinspectroofstoevaluateahomeowner’spolicy,orsurveydamagefromatornadotospeedclaims.
RealEstate–UAVuseisexpectedbeaboonfortherealestateindustry,givingtheabilitytoviewhardtoreachareasofpropertiesandprovideviewsthatareinaccessibletothoseontheground.
LawEnforcement–PolicedepartmentsareinterestedinusingUAVstoaidintrackingsuspectsandmonitoringforillegalactivity.
SearchandRescue–UAVoperationsareidealforwhensearchandrescueisundertakeninremoteareaswhereaccessislimited.
SafelyintegratingUAVoperationsintothenationalairspacesystemremainsachallenge.CongressdirectedtheFAAtodeveloprulesforUAVoperationsbySeptember2015.TheFAApublishedregulationsforthecommercialoperationofUAVsthatweighupto55poundsinJune2016.TheFAAcontinuestodeveloprulesforotherUAVsoperations.TheFAAalsoimplementedinDecember2015aUAVregistrationprocessforallUAVsweighingmorethan0.55pounds.ThisregistrationregulationwasvacatedinMay2017bythecourtsbecauseitviolatedtheFAAModernizationandReformActof2012.TheFAAisintheprocessofreviewingrecommendedrulesforsmallerUAVs,calledmicro‐UAVs,thatwouldbelessrestrictivethantherulesforheavierUAVs.
WiththeFAAstillintheprocessofdevelopingUAVrules,theKentuckyDepartmentofAviation(KDA)hasservedasaclearinghouseforUAVissuesandactivitiesinthestate.Withitsfocusoneconomicdevelopment,KDAhasreachedouttoprivatebusinessesengagedinUAVoperationsinanefforttopromotethecommercialuseofUAVswhilesimultaneouslyencouragingtheirsafeintegrationwithotherairspaceusers,andhelpingresolveissuesthatoccur.
EngineeringandcomputersciencestudentsarealsoindemandbytheUAVindustryandatleast50universitiesintheU.S.havecenters,academicprograms,orclubsfordroneengineeringorflying.TheUniversityofKentuckyhasanUnmannedSystemsResearchConsortium(USRC)thatseekstoadvancetechnologiesassociatedwithUAVs.Dr.SuzanneSmithisthedirectoroftheKentuckySpaceGrantConsortiumattheUniversityofKentuckyandleadsresearcheffortsthatincludessensordevelopmentandaircraftdesign.ShehasnotedthattherearequiteafewcompaniesinKentuckythathaveappliedtotheFAAforpermissiontooperateUAVs.Shesaidthatseveralfactorscontributetothistrend,includingthelargenumberofmilitarybasesinKentuckythatsupplyatechnicallyskilledworkforce,andtwomajorpackagedeliveryfirmsthatarepushingtouseUAVs.Notableareasofusethatsheindicatedincludeatmosphericresearch,agriculturalsurveying,andbridgeinspections,butsheexpectsthattherearemanyfutureusesofUAVsthatareasyetnotidentified.
WideAreaAugmentationSystemAviationanticipatedsignificantimprovementstonavigationwiththedevelopmentoftheglobalpositioningsystem(GPS).Whilethesystemprovidedexcellentenroutepositionalawareness,itwasinitiallyfoundtolacksufficientaccuracyforuseinallbuttheleastdemandinginstrumentapproachprocedures,andcouldnotbeusedtoprovideanysortofglideslopeguidance.ThatchangedwiththedevelopmentoftheWideAreaAugmentationSystem(WAAS),asystemthatimprovesthehorizontalandverticalaccuracyofGPStothepointwhereWAAS‐guidedapproachesnowmatchtheaccuracyofprecisioninstrumentapproaches,andcanofferverticalguidancetoaslowas200feetabovetheairportsurfaceinaslittleas0.5milesofvisibility.
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InKentucky,30airportsrelyonWAAS‐enabledapproachestoprovidethemwiththebestapproachminimumsavailable.TensofthousandsofgeneralaviationaircraftarealreadyequippedwithGPSandmanythousandsalsohaveWAASbecauseitisanattractiveupgrade.Inaddition,somecommercialoperatorshavealsoequippedscheduledserviceaircrafttoflyWAAS‐guidedapproaches.ItisexpectedthattheFAAwillcometorelymoreandmoreonWAASapproachesbecausetheycanbeimplementedwithouttheneedforadditionalground‐basedequipment.
Summary Technologyisakeydriverintheadvancementofaviation.Severalexamplesofthishavebeenhighlightedinthisreport.NextGenisreshapingthewayairtrafficcontrolandaviatorsworktogethertomakemoreefficientuseoflimitedairspace.UPShasalreadyassistedtheFAAwithdemonstratingsomeofthebenefitsanticipatedbytheaviationindustryoncetheNextGensystemisfullydeployed.Generalaviationexpectstoreapsafetydividendsonthein‐cockpitweatherandbettercollisionavoidancetechnologythatNextGenoffers.
DemandforcommercialUAVservicesappearstobegrowingdespiteuncertaintyaroundhowtheFAAplanstointegrateUAVoperationssafelyintothenationalairspacesystem.TheuseofUAVsisexpectedtoimpactairspaceandairportoperationalstandards.
WidespreaduseofWAAS‐supportedinstrumentapproacheshasenhancedaccessibilityfornumerousKentuckyairports,increasingthesafetyandversatilityofthosefacilities.
Finally,itshouldbementionedthatgovernmentalpolicieshavethepotentialtoimpactgeneralaviationactivity,eitherpositivelyornegatively.Someexamplesincludethepersonalpropertytaxonaircraft,environmentalcompliancerequirements,andthelimitforaircarriersonjetfuelsalestax,whichdeprivesthestateofneededaviationrevenuewhileencouragingcommercialairlineactivity.