Australian Capital City Railway Study 2013

1

PRDnationwide Research Report

Australian Railway Suburbs Real Estate Analysis June Quarter 2013

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. For further details contact:

Aaron Maskrey, Residential Research Director

P: (07) 3370 1702

E: [email protected]

2

Table of Contents

Introduction & Methodology 3

Key Findings 4

Sydney Railway Suburbs, New South Wales 5

Sydney Railway Localities Overview 6

Sydney Individual Railway Localities Overview 7

Sydney Railway Localities Summary Table 9

Melbourne Railway Suburbs, Victoria 10

Melbourne Railway Localities Overview 11

Melbourne Individual Railway Localities Overview 12

Melbourne Railway Localities Summary Table 14

Brisbane Railway Suburbs, Queensland 15

Brisbane Railway Localities Overview 16

Brisbane Individual Railway Localities Overview 17

Brisbane Railway Localities Summary Table 19

Perth Railway Suburbs, Western Australia 20

Perth Railway Localities Overview 21

Perth Individual Railway Localities Overview 22

Perth Railway Localities Summary Table 24

Disclaimer 25

http://thumbs.dreamstime.com/z/loco-motion-train-15560358.jpg

3

Introduction & Methodology

• Most capital cities offer several options of public transportation, but

railways are a common option of transportation that is shared across the

majority of Australian state capital cities. Sydney and Brisbane may utilise

their waterways extensively through ferry transport, while Melbourne and

Perth do not offer such an extensive ferry service. Instead, Melbourne

operates a thorough light rail network and while the trams manoeuvre

through the city in their own lanes, they are not as rapid as trains. All

capital cities make use of buses, in which some cities might have bus

ways, but the majority of bus transportation across the cities are through

use of shared roads which overall tend to get congested through overuse

in peak hour.

• The aim of this research is to ascertain the difference of property returns

from a location within walking distance to a railway station and localities

that are of farther distance and do not rely immediately on the use of

railways.

• The research analyses railway localities that are outside of the central

business district (CBD) as this is seen as the main centre for employment.

While some localities analysed in the research are specifically catered to

an automobile free resident (such as TODs) other locations analysed are

considered to be typical outer suburban areas, where residents utilise a

reliable and rapid railway network.

• A true transit orientated development (TOD) will make use of several

alternatives of public transport, one of which will almost certainly be rail.

TOD’s are a mixed use location (containing employment nodes)

surrounded by medium/high density residential, is pedestrian and cycle

friendly, and provides high quality transit options.

• The analysis excludes a radius (either 2.5 or 5 kilometres) around the

capital cities CBD. Dwellings considered to be within a railway locality in

this analysis are within a suburb that contains a railway station. Non-

railway localities are classified as suburbs that do not contain a railway

station. Dependant on the city analysed, the catchment area for this

research varies between 15 kilometres to 20 kilometres.

• A mitigating factor of this research may be the park and ride residents

who use railways, but live outside the railway suburb. This variable is

acknowledged, but excluded in the analysis as it is perceived that

residents who desire to use railways as a method of transportation will

seek a dwelling within walking distance before searching for a dwelling

that requires use of an automobile. In addition, park and ride residents

may drive for large distances, often bypassing several railway stations to

secure a non-fee car park as close to the city as possible.

• The research attempts to cluster railway and non-railway localities into comparable regions to determine the greater trends

that have occurred over the past decade. These regions may be broken up through natural or man made barriers which are

easily identifiable (such as large reserves, highways or main roads).

• The historical property analysis conducted in this report takes house and unit sales from 2003 onwards and groups the

transactions into 6 monthly periods to ensure the sample sizes are large enough to produce justifiable medians. Sale data is

up to the most recent period of February 2013, while rental data used is from the most recent quarter ending March 2013.

• Median rental data and yields used in this report have been based on the configuration of a 3-bed house or 2-bed unit as

standard.

• Data analysed in this report is sourced from Price Finder, RP Data, RTA, DHS, and REIWA.

4

Key Findings

RAILWAY SUBURBS OVERVIEW

Sydney’s railway suburbs return higher rental yields for both house and unit due

to the lower median prices for railway suburbs city-wide.

Melbourne’s median house price is, on average 10.9 per cent higher in railway

suburbs, remarkably greater than non-railway houses.

Brisbane’s Southern railway suburbs have experienced considerable growth in

the housing market, inline with maintaining the most affordable median price at

$459,000.

Perth’s Inner 10km railway suburbs experienced a positive divergence in both

house and unit markets over the past two years.

NON-RAILWAY SUBRBS OVERVIEW

Sydney’s non-railway suburbs have consistently outperformed the railway

localities in median price in both houses and units.

Melbourne’s non-railway suburbs were outperformed by railway localities, due

by and large to a far greater number of sales occurring in railway localities.

Brisbane’s mixture of public transport options has resulted in minimal

differences recorded amongst rail and non-rail areas, though sales in railway

areas have performed better than non-railway.

Non-railway suburbs in Perth have recorded a higher median price as well as a

larger volume of transactions when compared to railway suburbs.

INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

The analysis has revealed that in this low vacancy market, typically units located

within railway suburbs provide better investment opportunities through stronger

yields. Observing the macro trends on median price growth also shows that

there is little divergence between median price growth of railway and non-

railway suburbs.

Sydney- Railway suburbs provide a great investment option with an affordable

median price, low vacancy rate of 1.7 per cent, and overall strong rental market.

The analysis shows better yields being achieved in railway suburbs than non-

railway suburbs.

Melbourne- Houses located in railway suburbs have consistently maintained a

higher median price threshold (at an average 10.9 per cent) than non-railway

suburbs. Currently the market is transitioning through its stock on the market,

with the highest vacancy rate (at 2.7 per cent) of any capital city analysed. This

has resulted in comparably lower yields for would be investors.

Brisbane- Units provide a stronger investment option in Brisbane through

higher yields. It is no surprise to find the vast majority of units located within

railway suburbs. Through the analysis, it was established that there was no

significant price growth difference between railway and non-railway suburbs.

Perth- An extremely tight rental market has led to high yields, with unit stock just

edging ahead over houses for the most appealing investment type. Through the

analysis, it was established that there was no significant price growth difference

between railway and non-railway suburbs.

5

Sydney Railway Suburbs, New South Wales

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

Description of Sydney’s railway regions which have been analysed:

• The North region of Sydney is defined by suburbs north of the Parramatta River and to the

left of Middle Harbour, stretching out to as far north as the Asquith Railway Station. This

region services to four railway lines, including Hornsby, Carlingford, Berowra, and

Macquarie Park.

• The Inner West region takes suburbs located south of the Parramatta River and through to

Strathfield. The furthest west railway station analysed within this region was the Flemington

Railway Station. As an inner city area, there are six major lines which all have stops within

this region analysed.

• The Outer West region analyses suburbs located south of the Parramatta River and west of

Rockwood. The furthest west railway station analysed within this study was the Parramatta

Railway Station. Four railway lines were included in this region, analysing the Glenfield,

Schofields, Richmond, and Penrith lines.

• The South region analyses suburbs located south of Strathfield through to the Georges

River. The furthest south railway station analysed within this study was the Woolooware

station. Three main railway lines were included in this region, analysing the Cronulla,

Macarthur/Revesby, and the Glenfield lines.

Sydney Median House Price 3 Bed House* Yield Median Unit Price 2 Bed Unit* Yield

North Railway Area $935,000 $533 3.0% $493,000 $430 4.5%

North Non-railway Area $1,025,000 $715 3.6% $564,000 $503 4.6%

South Railway Area $687,500 $543 4.1% $440,000 $380 4.5%

South Non-railway Area $770,000 $530 3.6% $490,000 $400 4.2%

Outer West Railway Area $500,000 $440 4.6% $337,000 $340 5.2%

Outer West Non-railway Area $540,000 $445 4.3% $488,000 $360 3.8%

Inner West Railway Area $970,000 $720 3.9% $505,000 $450 4.6%

Inner West Non-railway Area $1,035,000 $700 3.5% $625,000 $505 4.2%

*Median w eekly rent

Analysis from the rental data provided from the aforementioned regions resulted in the following

key findings:

• Sydney remains an attractive destination for investment property with the residential market

delivering high rental yields and low vacancy rates. Railway suburbs in Sydney while

notoriously less desirable in terms of median price provide for the most part greater yields

for rental returns suggesting investment in railway suburbs while sometimes uninviting, do

provide the thrifty investor greater returns.

• The Sydney unit rental market recognises railway outperforms non-railway localities by 0.5

per cent with an average city-wide rental yield of 4.6 per cent. This being said, non-railway

localities provide an 18 per cent increase on median price suggesting the less desirable

railway localities while positive on investment returns are less desirable areas to live.

• Due to the Sydney Inner West’s proximity to waterfront harbour suburbs, median unit price

for non-railway suburbs is remarkably high at $625,000 providing a rental yield of 4.2 per

cent. Alternately, the railway localities recorded a lower median price (-19.2 per cent)

despite maintaining comparative rental returns, resulting in an improved yield of 4.6 per

cent.

6

Sydney Railway Localities Overview

• Sales activity in the Sydney house market has been in steady decline since a minor peak experienced

during 2009 (down 25.6 per cent in four years). However, a sustained period of lower interest rates

appears to have sparked growth in values, as what was once a stagnating market has increased at

four per cent per annum. This equates to an increase of $190,000 for both railway and non-railway

suburbs in just four years.

• Shifts in the median house price for railway and non-railway localities have reflected each other in

growth over the past decade, reaching a final median house price of $750,000 (railway suburbs) and

$880,000 (non-railway suburbs) over the February 2013 six month period. While non-railway localities

have recorded a steady 4.8 per cent growth in the median price over a 12 month period, railway

localities experienced stronger growth of 7.1 per cent.

• The Inner West region of Sydney recorded the highest median house price at $1,035,000 for non-

railway localities, closely followed by the Northern non-railway localities at $1,025,000. The most

affordable median house price was registered in the Outer West railway and non-railway suburbs of

Sydney, with a median of $500,000 (railway) and $540,000 (non-railway).

• While the Outer West region recorded the most affordable median house price, it experienced the

highest growth rate over the past five years, at 5.2 per cent per annum (non-railway) and 5.1 per cent

per annum (railway). The Northern region of Sydney has recorded the smallest amount of growth in the

median house price, at 2.2 per cent (non-railway) and 2.9 per cent (railway) per annum.

• The peak of activity in the Sydney unit market arrived during 2009 where a total of 13,791 transactions

occurred within a six month period, with 69.4 per cent of these occurring within a railway area. Since

this peak, activity has contracted to an average of 8,173 sales per six month period over the past

couple years, with sales within railway localities amounting to an average 67 per cent of total unit

transactions. Over the recent six month period ending February 2013, non-railway localities recorded

an increase of 13.2 per cent in unit activity, while railway localities experienced a rise of 8.2 per cent.

• Likened to the Sydney house market, the median unit price has experienced significant growth since

2009 (7.1 per cent per annum), and over the past 12 month period ending February 2013 recorded

further growth of 8.3 per cent (non-railway) and 5.8 per cent (railway). The average price differential

between the median railway and non-railway prices has expanded over the past decade from $69,000

to $95,000 (37.7 per cent increase).

• The Inner West non-railway region recorded the highest median unit price at $625,000, while the Outer

West railway region recorded the most affordable, at $337,000.

• Over a five year period, the majority of regions experienced a steady growth in their median unit price,

with the Southern non-railway localities experiencing the largest increase at 6.2 per cent per annum,

while the Northern railway localities recorded the smallest increase at 3.4 per cent per annum.

Sydney Railway Localities House Sales Cycle


“Non-railway localities across Sydney typically maintain a higher median price”

Sydney Railway Localities Unit Sales Cycle


$750,000

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Sydney Railway Sales Sydney Non-railway Sales

Sydney Railway Median Sydney Non-Railway Median

$455,000

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Sydney Railway Sales Sydney Non-Railway Sales

Sydney Railway Median Sydney Non-railway Median

7

Sydney Individual Railway Localities Overview


• The Sydney North house market has experienced a stable level of

house sales activity over the past decade, with an average of 3,154

sales per six month period. Sales between railway and non-railway

localities have tended to be split evenly amongst each locality. Over

the 12 months ending February 2013, sales activity improved in both

railway and non-railway localities, with non-railway localities seeing

11.4 per cent growth while railway localities saw 8.3 per cent growth.

The median price among railway localities has remained lower than

non-railway localities, however has been a more stable and arguably

more reliable performer. Railway and non-railway localities finished

the February 2013 six month period with a price gap of $90,000.

• The North unit market has averaged 1,447 sales per six month

period since February 2002, with railway localities amounting to an

average 58 per cent of the total unit sales. Both railway and non-

railway localities have experienced a decline in unit activity over the

12 month period ending February 2013, with non-railway localities

committing 21.1 per cent, compared to the 10.5 per cent of the

railway localities. Likened to the house market, the median unit price

for both railway and non-railway localities have tracked on similar

paths, with non-railway localities reaching a higher median unit price

of $564,000 (up 8.5 per cent from the previous year). Non-railway

localities recorded growth at 4.9 per cent, and recorded a lower

median price of $493,000 which represents a median price gap of

$71,000.

• The Sydney South median house price for both railway and non-

railway localities have tracked along a similar path. They finished the

February 2013 period with a gap of $82,500 as non-railway localities

achieved a median price of $770,000 (6.2 per cent improvement over

12 months) and railway localities experienced a median price of

$687,500 (growth of 5 per cent over 12 months). House sales

dropped off in recent times, with non-railway localities experiencing a

6.4 per cent drop in sales over 12 months, while railway localities

saw a drop of 4.4 per cent.

• Likened to the house market, railway suburbs in the South unit

market maintain a lower median price however has reflected the

progress seen in non-railway localities. Over the past 12 months

activity in railway suburbs has contracted by a total of 21.4 per cent

however has typically accounted for a larger market share.

North Unit Sales Cycle Comparison


“Non-railway suburbs perform stronger historically in the north and south of the CBD”


North House Sales Cycle Comparison

South Unit Sales Cycle Comparison South House Sales Cycle Comparison


$687,500

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Railway Sales Non-railway Sales

Railway Median Non-railway Median

$493,000

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$935,000

$1,025,000

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$440,000

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8

Sydney Individual Railway Localities Overview Cont.

• Analysis of the Inner West house market shows railway localities

typically following the price movements of the median house price for

non-railway localities. Non-railway suburbs have maintained a slightly

higher median price differential of just over $53,000 to railway localities

during the past decade. The most recent six month period ending

February 2013 has seen the median price increase by 6.2 per cent for

non-railway suburbs to $1,035,000, while railway suburbs have

increased by 2.1 per cent to $970,000. Looking long-term, the Inner

West median house prices for railways and non-railway localities have

increased at a steady rate of 4.6 per cent per annum over the past five

years.

• Unit sales in the Inner West increased during 2009 through to 2011.

Over the second half of 2012 and into 2013 activity has slumped by

22.5 per cent in railway suburbs and 6.0 per cent for non-railway

suburbs. This significant decrease in activity in the railway suburbs has

caused growth in the median price to decline, with a fall of 1.9 per cent

in the past six months. Non-railway suburbs have continued to

experience growth in the median price, at 1.6 per cent. Railway

localities have consistently held a significantly more affordable median

price (of on average $127,000 less) than non-railway suburbs.

• The median house price for the Outer West region has surged to new

highs as a result of the low interest rate period directly following the

Global Financial Crisis in late 2008. Railway suburbs experienced 31.6

per cent growth in the median house price to $500,000, while non-

railway suburbs increased by 36.1 per cent to $540,000. With a

sustained low interest rate period over the first of 2013, growth in

values are likely to continue. Sales activity has been stable since the

peak of the market in 2009, with an average 936 sales per six month

period.

• The Outer West unit market is primarily confined around railway

suburbs. While growth in the railway median unit price has not been

spectacular over the past decade, it has remained consistently positive

since 2008 and has increased by 4.2 per cent per annum. Non-railway

suburbs maintain a higher median price, historically averaging over

$100,000 more than railway units since 2003.

Inner West Unit Sales Cycle Comparison


“Non-railway localities are historically stronger in Sydney’s west”


Inner West House Sales Cycle Comparison

Outer West Unit Sales Cycle Comparison Outer West House Sales Cycle Comparison

Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS Prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS

$337,000

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$505,000

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$970,000

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1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Med

ian

sale

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sale

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Half year period



9

Sydney Railway Localities Summary Table


Median

House Price

1yr

Growth

5yr

Growth

p.a.

Median Unit

Price

1yr

Growth

5yr

Growth

p.a.

House Sales

6 months to

Feb 2013

1yr

Growth

Unit Sales 6

months to

Feb 2013

1yr

Growth

North Railway Area $935,000 3.3% 2.9% $493,000 4.9% 3.4% 1,413 8.3% 1,709 -21.1%

North Non-railway Area $1,025,000 4.1% 2.2% $564,000 8.5% 4.9% 1,398 11.4% 1,247 -10.5%

South Railway Area $687,500 5.0% 4.8% $440,000 7.3% 5.9% 1,337 -4.4% 1,823 -21.4%

South Non-railway Area $770,000 6.2% 4.3% $490,000 6.5% 6.2% 1,010 -6.4% 756 -12.4%

Outer West Railway Area $500,000 6.4% 5.1% $337,000 3.7% 4.2% 678 -19.0% 547 -31.5%

Outer West Non-railway Area $540,000 5.9% 5.2% $488,000 8.4% 5.4% 171 1.2% 43 -51.7%

Inner West Railway Area $970,000 7.8% 4.6% $505,000 2.0% 5.0% 297 0.3% 765 -22.5%

Inner West Non-railway Area $1,035,000 0.5% 4.5% $625,000 5.9% 3.5% 366 3.1% 487 -6.0%

Sydney Railway Area $750,000 7.1% 4.1% $455,000 5.8% 4.7% 3,725 -2.9% 4,844 -22.7%

Sydney Non-railway Area $880,000 4.8% 3.5% $550,000 8.3% 5.1% 2,945 3.0% 2,533 -11.6%

10

Melbourne Railway Suburbs, Victoria


Description of Melbourne’s railway regions which have been analysed:

• The North region of Melbourne is defined by suburbs east of the Maribyrnong River and to the right of the

Yarra River, stretching out to as far north as the Somerton Railway Station. This region caters to four railway

lines, the Craigieburn, Upfield, South Morang and Hurstbridge tracks.

• The West region takes suburbs located south of the Maribyrnong River and through to Port Phillip Bay. The

furthest west railway station analysed within this region was the Water Garden Railway Station. Three railway

lines were analysed in this region, the Sunbury, Werribee and Melton lines.

• The East region analyses suburbs located south of the Yarra River and east of Port Phillip Bay. The furthest

east railway station analysed within this study was the Westall Railway Station. Six railway lines were

included in this region, analysing the Sandringham, Frankston, Cranbourne, Glen Waverley, Alamein and

Ringwood lines.

Melbourne Median House Price 3 Bed House* Yield Median Unit Price 2 Bed Unit* Yield


North Non-railway Area $465,000 $350 3.9% $380,000 $320 4.4%

East Railway Area $830,000 $375 2.3% $498,500 $360 3.8%

East Non-railway Area $725,000 $333 2.4% $510,500 $355 3.6%

West Railway Area $450,000 $300 3.5% $335,000 $280 4.3%

West Non-railway Area $410,000 $315 4.0% $311,000 $320 5.4%


Analysis from the rental data provided from the aforementioned regions resulted in the following key findings:

• Melbourne currently has one the lowest rental yields of any capital city in Australia with houses returning an

average gross rental yield of 3.1 per cent and units only slightly better at 4.2 per cent.

• Melbourne’s western suburbs provide the best investment return for house (3.75 per cent) and unit (4.75 per

cent) sales, markedly higher than the city-wide average due to the comparable rental median prices paired

with the overall affordability in western house and unit markets.

• Melbourne railway suburbs have registered positive median prices across house and unit sales suggesting

railway localities are desirable. Melbourne localities with no railway have provided 0.2 per cent increase in

rental yield for both house and unit due to the relative affordability of non-railway localities in Melbourne.

11

Melbourne Railway Localities Overview • Typically, house sales within Melbourne have decreased from a peak experienced during the six month

period ending August 2007 (which registered 17,379 sales).Since 2011, there has been an average 11,000

sales per six month period, with the most recent six month period to February 2013 recording only 8,932

sales. This equates to a softening in activity for both railway localities and non-railway areas by 21 and 13.9

per cent respectively from the previous year.

• The median house price for railway and non-railway localities have tracked each other in growth over the

past decade, albeit with railway suburbs maintaining a price premium at an average $37,000 more. Over the

February 2013 six month period a final median house price of $618,000 (railway regions) and $570,000

(railway regions) was established. While railway localities have recorded a nominal 0.5 per cent growth in

the median price over a 12 month period, non-railway localities experienced stronger growth of 1.8 per

cent.

• The Eastern region of Melbourne recorded the highest median house price of $830,000 for railway localities

and $725,000 for non-railway localities. The most affordable median house prices were registered in the

Western region of Melbourne, with a median of $410,000 for non-railway localities and $450,000 for railway

localities.

• Over a long-term period of five years, the Western region experienced the largest increase of 5.8 per cent

per annum for non-railway localities, while railway suburbs also increased at 5.3 per cent per annum. The

Eastern region recorded the least amount of growth with railway localities recording only 0.7 per cent growth

per annum and non-railway localities registering two per cent growth per annum.

• The peak of activity in the Melbourne unit market arrived during 2007 where a total of 12,272 transactions

occurred, with 84 per cent of these occurring within a railway area. Since this peak, activity has contracted to

an average of just over 6,000 sales per six month period over the past couple years. Over the course of a 12

month period, significant declines in activity were felt in both non-railway localities (down by 27.7 per cent)

and railway localities (down 26.6 per cent).

• A median price peak was recorded during the August 2010 six month period, when non-railway localities

registered $485,000 for a unit, while railway localities established a median unit price of $455,000. Since this

peak, both median prices have contracted, with the railway localities recording a slightly higher median price

of $460,000, compared to $450,000 for non-railway localities.

• Over the course of a 12 month period, railway localities registered a marginal change in the median unit

price, increasing by 0.9 per cent, while non-railway localities experienced an increase of 0.4 per cent.

• The Eastern region of Melbourne registered the highest median unit price at $510,500 for non-railway

localities and $498,500 for railway suburbs. The most affordable median unit price was registered in the

Western region where non-railway localities reached $311,000 and railway localities registered $335,000.

• Over a long-term period of five years, the Western region experienced the largest increase of 5.2 per cent

per annum for railway localities, while non-railway suburbs also increased at 5.0 per cent per annum. The

Eastern region recorded the least amount of growth with non-railway localities recording only 2.9 per cent

growth per annum.

Melbourne Railway Localities House Sales Cycle


“Melbourne’s median house prices have reflected each other in growth over the past decade”

Melbourne Railway Localities Unit Sales Cycle


$460,000

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

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4 A

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5 A

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9 A

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Half year period

Melbourne Railway Sales Melbourne Non-railway Sales

Melbourne Railway Median Melbourne Non-railway Median

$618,000

$570,000

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

200

3 F

EB

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UG

200

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UG

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UG

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EB

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UG

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UG

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Half year period

Melbourne Railway Sales Melbourne Non-railway Sales

Melbourne Railway Median Melbourne Non-railway Median

12

Melbourne Individual Railway Localities Overview


• Similar to most Melbourne property markets, the Melbourne North

house market experienced a rapid median price increase over 2010,

but has since plateaued. The North railway suburbs have maintained

a higher median price over the past decade, averaging just under

$38,000 more than non-railway suburbs. The most recent six month

period ending February 2013 observed an expansion in this price

difference to $59,500, with railway localities registering a final median

price of $524,500 (non-railway recorded $465,000). Over the past 12

months the median price for railway localities has softened by 0.1 per

cent while the non-railway median has contracted by 5.1 per cent.

• The Melbourne North unit market has experienced a rapid fall in the

level of sales over the past 12 months, decreasing by over a third for

both railway and non-railway localities. The median prices for both

railway and non-railway suburbs have shifted closely together over

the past decade. However over the longer-term, railway suburbs

have recorded a stronger growth rate of four per cent per annum,

compared to only three per cent for non-railway suburbs. Railway

suburbs recorded a median price of $396,000, compared to non-

railway, at $380,000.

• Melbourne East shows a significant price difference between railway

and non-railway suburbs, with railway maintaining a higher house

median by just over an average of $105,000. For the six month

period ending February 2013, railway suburbs registered a median of

$830,000 (fall of 2.4 per cent in 12 months) compared to non-railway

at $725,000 (down 0.3 per cent in 12 months).

• Unit sales in Melbourne East have contracted significantly, down 18.9

per cent for railway suburbs and 22.1 per cent for non-railway

suburbs. Non-railway localities have maintained a higher median unit

price over the past decade (at an average $24,736 difference) but

have recently contracted to just $12,000 as at the February 2013 six

month period. Railway localities registered positive growth of 0.7 per

cent in the median unit price over the past 12 months, compared to

non-railway localities, which declined 3.7 per cent.



“The North railway suburbs have historically maintained a higher median price”



East Unit Sales Cycle Comparison East House Sales Cycle Comparison


$524,500

$465,000

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

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200

6 A

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200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Me

dia

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Half year period

North Railway Sales North Non-railway Sales

North Railway Median North Non-railway Median

$396,000

$380,000

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

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EB

201

2 A

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201

3 F

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Me

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Half year period



$830,000

$725,000

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

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200

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200

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200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

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201

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Half year period

East Railway Sales East Non-railway Sales East Railway Median East Non-railway Median

$510,500

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

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201

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3 F

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Half year period


13

Melbourne Individual Railway Localities Overview Cont.

• Observing the Western House Sales Cycle, it becomes evident

that there is an increasing divergence in the median price between

railway and non-railway localities, with railway suburbs recording a

$40,000 premium in price over the six month period ending

February 2013. Railway localities recorded a median house price

of $450,000 (up 2.3 per cent in 12 months) while non-railway

localities recorded a median of $410,000 (up 1.2 per cent in 12

months). Overall, there is a strong and consistent trend of long-

term growth in the median price over the past decade.

• Unit sales in the Western region of Melbourne have subsided

considerably, down 70 per cent from its peak in 2009 and down

over a third in just the past 12 months alone. The median price of

railway units has softened by 4.3 per cent over the past 12 months

to $335,000, but still remains higher than the median of non-

railway units which recorded $311,000 (down 0.6 per cent). Long-

term growth over the past five years has observed a steady rate of

just over five per cent per annum for both railway and non-railway

suburbs.

Western Unit Sales Cycle Comparison


“Unit sales in the Western region of Melbourne have subsided considerably”


Western House Sales Cycle Comparison

$450,000

$410,000

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

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EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Me

dia

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of

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Half year period

West Railway Sales West Non-railway Sales

West Railway Median West Non-railway Median

$335,000

$311,000

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

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Half year period



14

Melbourne Railway Localities Summary Table


Median

House Price

1yr

Growth

5yr

Growth

p.a.

Median Unit

Price

1yr

Growth

5yr

Growth

p.a.

House Sales

6 months to

Feb 2013

1yr

Growth

Unit Sales 6

months to

Feb 2013

1yr

Growth

North Railway Area $524,500 -0.1% 4.1% $396,000 0.5% 4.0% 2,492 -16.7% 996 -31.3%

North Non-railway Area $465,000 -5.1% 3.6% $380,000 -3.8% 3.0% 859 -15.4% 224 -35.4%

East Railway Area $830,000 -2.4% 0.7% $498,500 0.7% 3.6% 2,578 -21.4% 2,312 -18.9%

East Non-railway Area $725,000 -0.3% 2.0% $510,500 -3.7% 2.9% 1,252 -10.4% 440 -22.1%

West Railway Area $450,000 2.3% 5.3% $335,000 -4.3% 5.2% 1,174 -28.2% 355 -34.3%

West Non-railway Area $410,000 1.2% 5.8% $311,000 -0.6% 5.0% 577 -18.7% 39 -36.1%

Melbourne Railway Area $618,000 0.5% 3.1% $450,000 0.9% 3.7% 6,244 -21.0% 3,549 -26.6%

Melbourne Non-railway Area $570,000 1.8% 3.7% $460,000 0.4% 4.2% 2,688 -13.9% 703 -27.7%

15

Description of Brisbane’s railway regions which have been analysed:

• The North region is defined by suburbs north of Mount Coot-tha and the CBD,

stretching out to as far north as the Carseldine Railway Station. This region

caters to four railway lines including Shorncliffe, Ferny Grove, Doomben and

Caboolture lines.

• The West region takes suburbs located south of Mount Coot-tha and west of

the Oxley Creek. The furthest west railway station analysed within this region

was the Darra Railway Station. Only one railway line was analysed in this

region, the Rosewood line which continues through to Ipswich.

• The South region analyses suburbs located east of the Oxley Creek through

to the southern side of Old Cleveland Road. The furthest south railway station

analysed within this study was the Runcorn Railway Station. Only the

Beenleigh Railway line was included in this region, despite the rail track

continues to the Gold Coast.

• The East region includes suburbs north of Old Cleveland Road through to the

Brisbane River. The furthest east railway station analysed was the Manly

Railway Station. Suburbs with stations along the Cleveland Railway line were

analysed in this region.

Analysis from the rental data provided from the aforementioned regions resulted in

the following key findings;

• Brisbane remains an attractive investment destination with the residential

market delivering high rental yields and low vacancy rates. The Brisbane

house and unit rental markets remain similar across railway and non-railway

localities, with only +0.1 and -0.2 per cent differentiating the rental returns

between house and unit investments.

• Brisbane’s initiative to expand its alternate public transport networks with bus

and ferry has resulted in a negligible result for railway and non-railway

investment.

• The Brisbane unit rental market seeing strong returns, in particularly the North

non-railway localities returning yields of 5.4 per cent due to the positive rental

capability of desirable suburbs including Red Hill and Bardon, as well as

Brisbane Northern Busway localities, Aspley, Chermside and Stafford.

Brisbane Railway Localities


Brisbane Median House Price 3 Bed House* Yield Median Unit Price 2 Bed Unit* Yield







West Railway Area $630,000 $470 3.9% $405,000 $385 4.9%

West Non-railway Area $507,000 $385 3.9% $352,000 $400 5.9%


16

Brisbane Railway Localities Overview

• The Brisbane house market has experienced a stable level of house sales activity since a decline during

2010, averaging 5,116 transactions per six month period. Of this, railway localities typically amount to just

under 60 per cent of total house sales. From the previous year house activity has improved in railway

localities (up 0.3 per cent) while transactions within non-railway areas have decreased (down 1.5 per cent)

• The median house price for railway and non-railway localities has mirrored each other in growth over the

past decade, reaching a final median house price of $17,500 (railway suburbs) and $526,000 (non-railway

suburbs) over the February 2013 six month period. While non-railway localities have recorded a nominal 0.1

per cent growth in the median price over a 12 month period, railway localities experienced stronger growth

of 2.2 per cent.

• The Western region of Brisbane recorded the highest median house price at $630,000 for railway localities,

while non-railway localities in the West recorded a more affordable median price of $507,000, equating to

the city’s third most affordable median house price. The most affordable median house price was registered

in the Southern railway suburbs of Brisbane, with a median of $459,000, followed by the railway localities of

Northern Brisbane at $504,500.

• Over a long-term period of five years, the majority of regions experienced negligible change in their median

price, with the Western non-railway and Southern railway localities experiencing the largest increase, at 1.6

per cent per annum each, while the Western railway localities recorded a marginal 0.2 per cent per annum

decline.

• The peak of activity in the Brisbane unit market arrived during 2007 where a total of 3,679 transactions

occurred, with 81 per cent of these occurring within a railway area. Since this peak, activity has contracted to

an average of 2,229 sales per six month period over the past couple years, with sales within railway

localities amounting to an average 78.9 per cent of total unit transactions.

• Over the course of a 12 month period, non-railway localities recorded a steep decline of 32.8 per cent in unit

activity, while railway localities experienced a decline of 11.5 per cent.

• It appears the median price has plateaued after peaking in the August 2010 six month period, when non-

railway localities registered $415,000 for a unit, while railway localities established a median unit price of

$417,000. Since this peak, both median prices have slightly contracted, with the railway localities recording

a higher median price of $390,000, compared to $369,500 for non-railway localities.

• Over the course of a 12 month period, railway localities registered a softening in the median unit price of 3.7

per cent, while non-railway localities experienced a contraction of 5.3 per cent.

• The Eastern region of Brisbane registered the highest median unit price at $434,500 for non-railway

localities while recording the largest price premium on the Eastern railway localities median (at a difference

of $59,500). The most affordable median unit price was registered in Western non-railway area, at $352,000.

• Over a five year period, the majority of regions experienced a slight change in their median unit price, with

the Western non-railway localities experiencing the largest increase, at 2.9 per cent per annum, while the

Northern non-railway localities recorded a 1.4 per cent per annum decline.

Brisbane Railway Localities House Sales Cycle


“Brisbane house and unit median price has historically maintained parity”

Brisbane Railway Localities Unit Sales Cycle


$390,000

$369,500

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

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200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

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200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Med

ian

sale

pri

ce

Nu

mb

er

of

sale

s

Half year period

Brisbane Railway Sales Brisbane Non-Railway Sales

Brisbane Railway Median Brisbane Non-railway Median

$526,000

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Med

ian

sale

pri

ce

Nu

mb

er

of

sale

s

Half year period

Brisbane Railway Sales Brisbane Non-railway Sales

Brisbane Railway Median Brisbane Non-railway Median

17

Brisbane Individual Railway Localities Overview


• The Brisbane North house market has experienced a stable level of

house sales activity since the six month period ending February 2011,

with an average 1,994 transactions per six month period. Of this,

railway localities typically amounted to 66 per cent of total house

sales. House activity has slightly declined in railway localities (down

0.7 per cent), while non-railway suburbs improved by 7.3 per cent

from the previous year. While the median house price for railway and

non-railway localities has mirrored each other in growth over the past

decade, non-railway suburbs have maintained a higher price by an

average $20,000. The final median house price of the February 2013

six month period was $504,500 for railway localities, and $530,000 for

non-rail localities. However, over the long-term railway localities have

recorded higher growth in the median price at 6.9 per cent growth per

annum compared to non-railway suburbs at 6.7 per cent.

• The North unit market has averaged 943 sales per six month period

since February 2011, with railway localities amounting to an average

83 per cent of the total unit sales in the region. Both railway and non-

railway localities have experienced a decline in unit activity over the

12 month period ending February 2013, with non-railway localities

contracting the most at 25 per cent, compared to 13 per cent for

railway localities. Likened to the house market, the median unit price

for both railway and non-railway localities have tracked on similar

paths, with railway localities reaching a slightly higher median unit

price of $395,000 (down 0.8 per cent from the previous year). Non-

railway localities recorded a 5.6 per cent decline and lower median

price of $368,000.

• The Brisbane East median house price for both railway and non-

railway localities reached a price peak during 2010, experiencing only

minute growth over the past 12 months at 0.9 per cent (railway

localities) and a fall of 1.5 per cent (non-railway localities). Non-railway

suburbs have maintained a higher median price, at an average of

$42,500 over the past decade. Both railway and non-railway suburbs

have recorded a contraction in activity over 12 months, by 3.2 per cent

(railway) and 6.4 per cent (non-railway).

• Likened to the house market, non-railway suburbs in the East unit

market maintain a higher median price with an average divergence of

$48,755. Over the past 12 months activity in non-railway suburbs has

contracted by over half of the unit market (54.9 per cent drop).



“North Brisbane localities experience negligible price differences”



East Unit Sales Cycle Comparison East House Sales Cycle Comparison


$504,500

$530,000

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Me

dia

n s

ale

pri

ce

Nu

mb

er

of

sa

les

Half year period



$395,000

$368,000

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Me

dia

n s

ale

pri

ce

Nu

mb

er

of

sa

les

Half year period



$540,000

$572,000

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Me

dia

n s

ale

pri

ce

Nu

mb

er

of

sa

les

Half year period


$375,000

$434,500

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Me

dia

n s

ale

pri

ce

Nu

mb

er

of

sa

les

Half year period


18

Brisbane Individual Railway Localities Overview Cont.

• Analysis of the Southern house market shows non-railway localities

typically maintaining a higher median price of just over $60,000 to

railway localities during the past decade. Since the peak of the

market in 2010, the median price has steadily declined in non-railway

localities, while rail suburbs have experienced a recent growth surge

of 8 per cent. Long-term railway suburbs have increased in value at a

higher rate of 8.1 per cent per annum than non-railway suburbs, at

6.8 per cent.

• By observing the Southern Unit Sales Cycle it is determined that over

the past couple years both unit sales activity and median price have

been fairly stable in the Brisbane South market. There was no

change to the median unit price for non-railway suburbs, remaining at

$385,000 over 12 months, while railway suburbs decreased

marginally by 0.3 per cent to $388,000. Long-term railway suburbs

have increased in value at a higher rate of 9.9 per cent per annum

than non-railway suburbs, at 7.6 per cent.

• When observing the house sales cycle of the Western region, it can

be observed that this location has the largest price difference

between railway and non-railway suburbs, at an average $123,000

divergence in favour of railway suburbs. At the markets peak during

2010, this price difference was up to $150,000, but has since

retracted to the average $123,000 as at the recent six month period

ending February 2013. Over the past 12 months both railway and

non-railway suburbs recorded a decline in the median price of 1.2 per

cent and 2.5 per cent respectively. Sales activity in railway localities

has softened on the previous year by 4.4 per cent, while non-railway

localities have decreased by 9.5 per cent. Over the past decade,

railway localities only amount to an average 45 per cent of total

house sales.

• Likened to the Brisbane West house market, railway suburbs in the

West unit market also maintain a higher median price than non-

railway localities, through an average price difference of $56,000

over the past decade. For the most recent February 2013 six month

period, the railway median unit price was $405,000 - $53,000 more

than the non-railway median unit price of $352,000. Railway localities

have experienced a noticeable decline in the median price by 3.6 per

cent while non-railway suburbs have increased by 2.0 per cent.

Activity has contracted in railway localities by 16.8 per cent while

non-railway unit activity has fallen by 41.2 per cent.

Southern Unit Sales Cycle Comparison


“Western Brisbane localities provide the largest median price differential”


Southern House Sales Cycle Comparison

Western Unit Sales Cycle Comparison Western House Sales Cycle Comparison


$459,000

$511,000

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Me

dia

n s

ale

pri

ce

Nu

mb

er

of

sa

les

Half year period

South Railway Sales South Non-railway Sales

South Railway Median South Non-railway Median

$385,000

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Me

dia

n s

ale

pri

ce

Nu

mb

er

of

sa

les

Half year period

South Railway Sales South Non-railway Sales

South Railway Median South Non-railway Median

$630,000

$507,000

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,5002

00

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Me

dia

n s

ale

pri

ce

Nu

mb

er

of

sa

les

Half year period



$405,000

$352,000

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Me

dia

n s

ale

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of

sa

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Half year period



19

Brisbane Individual Railway Localities Summary Table


Median

House Price

1yr

Growth

5yr

Growth

p.a.

Median Unit

Price

1yr

Growth

5yr

Growth

p.a.

House Sales

6 months to

Feb 2013

1yr

Growth

Unit Sales 6

months to

Feb 2013

1yr

Growth

North Railway Area $504,500 0.9% 0.8% $395,000 -0.8% 1.0% 1,292 -0.7% 723 -12.8%

North Non-railway Area $530,000 2.1% 1.0% $368,000 -5.6% -1.4% 672 7.3% 151 -25.2%

East Railway Area $540,000 0.9% -0.1% $375,000 -9.6% 0.0% 805 -3.2% 345 -12.2%

East Non-railway Area $572,000 -1.5% 0.3% $434,500 -7.2% 1.4% 363 -6.4% 46 -54.9%

South Railway Area $459,000 8.0% 1.6% $388,000 -0.3% 1.8% 473 15.4% 135 11.6%

South Non-railway Area $511,000 0.2% 0.6% $385,000 0.0% 0.1% 544 -1.1% 83 -18.6%

West Railway Area $630,000 -1.2% -0.2% $405,000 -3.6% 0.0% 387 -4.4% 233 -16.8%

West Non-railway Area $507,000 -2.5% 1.6% $352,000 2.0% 2.9% 427 -9.5% 50 -41.2%

Brisbane Railway Area $517,500 2.2% 0.5% $390,000 -3.7% 0.5% 2,957 0.3% 1,436 -11.5%

Brisbane Non-railway Area $526,000 0.1% 0.6% $369,500 -5.3% -1.1% 2,006 -1.5% 330 -32.8%

20

Description of Perth’s railway regions which have been analysed:

• The Inner 10km Suburbs incorporate all suburbs within a 10km radius of the Perth CBD

excluding the immediate 2.5km measured from Perth Station. This area caters to all five

railway lines servicing Perth, including the Fremantle, Midland, Armadale, Joondalup

and Mandurah lines.

• The North region takes into account the coastal suburbs north from Carine and

Hamersley outside the 10km radius from Perth CBD and continues either side of the

Joondalup railway line concluding at Edgewater Station.

• The South region encompasses all land east of the Mandurah railway line within the

20km radius of Perth’s CBD. The area of analysis concludes to the south at the

Cockburn Central rail interchange.

• The East region analyses suburbs located east of the 10km radius of the Perth CBD

through to John Forrest National Park and east of the Mandurah railway line. Three main

railway lines were included in this region, analysing the Mandurah, Armadale and

Midland railway lines.

Perth Railway Localities


Perth Median House Price 3 Bed House* Yield Median Unit Price 2 Bed Unit* Yield







Inner 10km Railway Area $650,000 $613 4.9% $435,000 $400 4.8%

Inner 10km Non-railway Area $575,000 $500 4.5% $390,000 $380 5.1%


Analysis from the rental data provided from the aforementioned regions resulted in the

following key findings;

• Perth continues to provide very high rental yields city-wide with high median prices

complemented with rental prices. This has led to the railway and non-railway localities

remaining competitive in the Inner 10km of Perth’s CBD as well as along the coastlines

North and South of the city.

• The Eastern railway localities rental yield has outperformed non-railway house and units

by 0.5 per cent and 1.0 per cent respectively. Eastern units have performed particularly

strong as the median rent surpasses that of non-railway suburbs despite a median 7.5

per cent lower than railway localities.

• South non-railway suburbs provide the highest median price for house and unit sales

with $630,000 and $440,000 respectively. The higher than average median is due to the

geographical location as well as close proximity to railway lines into the Perth CBD.

21

Perth Railway Localities Overview

• The Perth house market has seen a recovery in sales since the historic low experienced during the

August 2011 six month period. Sales in railway localities have accounted for a higher number of sales

compared to non-railway localities. While activity in both railway and non-railway localities has softened

in the six months to February 2013, sales have picked up when compared to the previous year, with

sales in rail localities improving 7.1 per cent and 7.3 per cent in non-rail areas.

• The median house price for railway and non-railway localities have generally moved in tandem with each

other throughout the past decade, with railway localities being more stable in reactions to peaks and

troughs. The median house price for railway localities was $525,000 over the February 2013 six month

period and was $550,000 for non-railway localities. These median prices represent a 5.5 per cent

improvement for railways suburbs and 4.2 per cent growth for non-railway suburbs.

• The largest median price seen amongst railway localities in Perth was in the inner 10km region, where a

median price of $650,000 was recorded for the February 2013 six month period. The most affordable

railway locality was in the Eastern area which recorded a median price of $417,500. In non-railway

localities, the highest median price was $630,000 in the South area, and the most affordable median

price was in the North with $480,000.

• Over five years, the largest growth in median house price was 2.1 per cent per annum which was

experienced in two localities; the North railway locality and the East non-railway locality. Only one

locality experienced negative growth of -0.3 per cent which was the inner 10km railway locality.

• In contrast to the Perth house market, the unit market appears to favour railway localities, with the

railway localities across the city outperforming non-railway localities in terms of both number of sales as

well as median price. Similarly to the house market, sales have dropped off in the six month period to

February 2013, however are up when compared to 12 months ago. Unit sales in railway localities were

up 19.3 per cent over the one year period, while non-railway localities only saw a 1.3 per cent

improvement.

• The Perth unit market is nearing its median price peak in both rail and non-rail localities. The railway

locality median price for the February 2013 six month period was $420,000, which is equivalent to the

price peak experienced in the August 2010 period. The median unit price for non-rail localities for the

February 2013 period was $400,000 which is only $5,000 short of the price peak experienced in the

August 2010 period.

• Over the course of a 12 month period, railway localities registered a 5.5 per cent growth in the median

unit price, while non-railway localities experienced a growth of 4.2 per cent.

• The highest median price for both rail and non-rail localities was in the Southern region, where railway

localities experienced a median price of $450,000 while non-rail localities came in $10,000 less with a

median of $440,000.

• Over a long-term period of five years, growth was fairly minimal across the unit market. The largest

growth experienced was at 2.2 per cent in the Southern non-rail region, while two regions experienced a

contraction of 0.8 per cent, being North non-railway and the South railway region.

Perth Railway Localities House Sales Cycle


“Perth rail and non-railway localities have experienced negligible historical median price differences”

Perth Railway Localities Unit Sales Cycle


$420,000

$400,000

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Med

ian

sale

pri

ce

Nu

mb

er

of

sale

s

Half year period

Perth Railway Sales Perth Non-railway Sales

Perth Railway Median Perth Non-railway Median

$525,000

$550,000

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Med

ian

sale

pri

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of

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s

Half year period

Perth Railway Sales Perth Non-railway Sales

Perth Railway Median Perth Non-railway Median

22

Perth Individual Railway Localities Overview


• The Inner 10km house market has seen sales improve and stabilise

since the historic low in August 2011. Over the ten year period this area

has averaged 4,551 sales per six month period, with approximately 39.5

per cent of total sales coming from railway localities. Sales activity has

dropped off in both rail and non-rail localities in the past six month

period, however has seen an improvement over twelve months. Non-

railway area has seen sales growth of 5.9 per cent while the railway area

has seen a slightly more subdued 4.8 per cent growth. The median

price in the Inner 10km area rail and non-rail localities has more or less

followed trend, with the rail locality consistently outperforming the non-

rail locality. At the end of the February 2013 six month period, the

median house price gap sat at $75,000. The median price for railway

localities was $650,000 which represents 8.3 per cent growth over 12

months, while the median price for non-railway localities was $575,000

which is an improvement of 7.5 per cent compared with the 12 months

earlier.

• The Inner 10km unit market has averaged 2,287 sales since the

February 2003 six month period, with railway localities amounting to an

average 60.3 per cent of the total unit sales in the region. In the 12

months to the period ending February 2013, railway localities

experienced a surge in sales activity of 20.1 per cent, while non-railway

localities saw a minimal contraction of 0.1 per cent. The unit median

price for rail and non-rail localities have generally reflected one another,

with non-rail localities being less volatile. The February 2013 period

closed with a price gap of $45,000 after rail localities saw improvement

of 7.7 per cent over 12 months while non-rail localities saw 2.6 per cent

growth.

• The South median house price for both railway and non-railway localities

appears to have stabilised in recent times, experiencing comparatively

small growth over the past 12 months at 5.6 (non-railway localities) and

2.8 (railway localities) per cent. There is little departure in the median

price over the past decade, with the price gap remaining relatively

consistent. In the last 12 months however, house activity has been

strong in railway localities, improving by 10.5 per cent, while improving

only by 0.6 per cent in railway locations.

• The South unit market appears to buck the trend of others with railway

and non-railway localities seemingly experiencing no commonality in

regard to median price. Non-railway localities have seen more

consistency and less volatility in median price, while accounting for 36.8

per cent of sales (on average) per six month period.

Inner 10km Unit Sales Cycle Comparison


“Railway localities increase the residential median price in Perth’s inner suburbs”


Inner 10km House Sales Cycle Comparison

Southern Unit Sales Cycle Comparison Southern House Sales Cycle Comparison


$650,000

$575,000

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Me

dia

n s

ale

pri

ce

Nu

mb

er

of

sa

les

Half year period



$435,000

$390,000

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Me

dia

n s

ale

pri

ce

Nu

mb

er

of

sa

les

Half year period



$545,000

$630,000

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Me

dia

n s

ale

pri

ce

Nu

mb

er

of

sa

les

Half year period



$450,000$440,000

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Me

dia

n s

ale

pri

ce

Nu

mb

er

of

sa

les

Half year period



23

Perth Individual Railway Localities Overview Cont.

• Analysis of the Northern house market shows railway localities have

typically drawn a price premium when compared to non-railway

localities. Since the dip in 2011, the price gap has remained consistent,

as both have seen similar patterns of growth. Over the 12 months

ending February 2013, railway localities saw growth of 7.7 per cent,

while non-railway localities saw growth of 6.7 per cent. Sales amongst

the two have been vastly different however, with railway localities

experiencing a drop of 1.3 per cent while non-railway localities saw

sales activity improve 14.7 per cent.

• Sales activity in the Northern unit market has been dominated by non-

railway localities, likely due to a lack of supply amidst railway localities.

The Northern unit market averages 315 unit sales per six months, with

only 7.3 per cent coming from rail localities. Due to the comparatively

smaller market size, the Northern unit market has been subject to a

more fluctuating median price, with very sharp rises accompanied by

sharp declines. In the 12 months ending February 2013, railway

localities saw median price improve 14 per cent to $387,500. In the

same 12 month period, non-railway localities also saw growth, however

more subdued at 2.9 per cent to close at $391,000.

• In stark contrast to the Northern region, the Eastern region house

market sales activity has been focused towards railway localities.

Median price has moved in a similar pattern among both rail and non-

rail localities, with growth of 6.5 per cent seen in rail localities while non-

rail localities saw growth of 8.7 per cent over 12 months. The price gap

between railway and non-railway localities has been consistent since

August 2009, finishing the February 2013 period $82,500 apart. Over

ten years the Eastern region has averaged 3,116 transactions per six

month period. Of those, a little over a third (35.8 per cent) have come

from non-railway localities.

• Sales activity in the Eastern unit market has been dominated by railway

localities, likely due to lack of supply in non-railway localities. Sales in

Eastern railway localities grew 29.4 per cent over the 12 months ending

February 2013, while non-railway localities saw almost the opposite with

sales contracting 17.6 per cent. Of the average 142 sales per six month

period, only 22.5 per cent came from non-railway localities. Due to the

lack of sales activity in non-railway suburbs it has seen higher levels of

volatility when compared to railway localities. At the February 2013 six

month period, there was $27,500 difference, with non-railway localities

having a median price of $362,500 and railway localities a median price

of $335,000.

Northern Unit Sales Cycle Comparison


“Northern unit market has been dominated by non-railway localities”


Northern House Sales Cycle Comparison

Eastern Unit Sales Cycle Comparison Eastern House Sales Cycle Comparison


$550,000

$480,000

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Me

dia

n s

ale

pri

ce

Nu

mb

er

of

sa

les

Half year period



$387,500$391,000

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Me

dia

n s

ale

pri

ce

Nu

mb

er

of

sa

les

Half year period



$417,500

$500,000

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Me

dia

n s

ale

pri

ce

Nu

mb

er

of

sa

les

Half year period



$335,000

$362,500

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

200

3 F

EB

200

3 A

UG

200

4 F

EB

200

4 A

UG

200

5 F

EB

200

5 A

UG

200

6 F

EB

200

6 A

UG

200

7 F

EB

200

7 A

UG

200

8 F

EB

200

8 A

UG

200

9 F

EB

200

9 A

UG

201

0 F

EB

201

0 A

UG

201

1 F

EB

201

1 A

UG

201

2 F

EB

201

2 A

UG

201

3 F

EB

Me

dia

n s

ale

pri

ce

Nu

mb

er

of

sa

les

Half year period



24

Perth Individual Railway Localities Summary Table


Median

House Price

1yr

Growth

5yr

Growth

p.a.

Median Unit

Price

1yr

Growth

5yr

Growth

p.a.

House Sales

6 months to

Feb 2013

1yr

Growth

Unit Sales 6

months to

Feb 2013

1yr

Growth

North Railway Area $550,000 7.7% 2.1% $387,500 14.0% 0.9% 668 -1.3% 30 42.9%

North Non-railway Area $480,000 6.7% 0.9% $391,000 2.9% -0.8% 1,271 14.7% 241 10.0%

East Railway Area $417,500 6.5% 1.4% $335,000 6.3% 1.0% 1,738 11.9% 141 29.4%

East Non-railway Area $500,000 8.7% 2.1% $362,500 5.2% 1.3% 981 5.8% 28 -17.6%

South Railway Area $545,000 2.8% 0.2% $450,000 0.0% -0.8% 644 10.5% 238 8.7%

South Non-railway Area $630,000 5.6% -0.3% $440,000 4.3% 2.2% 507 0.6% 128 -0.8%

Inner 10km Railway Area $650,000 8.3% 0.3% $435,000 7.7% 1.7% 1,583 4.8% 1,097 20.2%

Inner 10km Non-railway Area $575,000 7.5% 0.2% $390,000 2.6% 2.2% 2,474 5.9% 706 -0.1%

Perth Railway Area $525,000 7.1% 1.6% $420,000 5.5% 1.2% 4,633 7.1% 1,506 19.3%

Perth Non-railway Area $550,000 8.5% 1.1% $400,000 4.2% 1.6% 5,233 7.3% 1,103 1.3%

25

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Documents

Australian Capital City Railway Study 2013