Asia’s Political Future

Outline

• Major powers– US, Japan, & China

• New challenges– International security– Human security

• counter-terrorism• environmental protection• health-related issues

Major Powers

• Asia’s political future depends largely on the major powers in the region:– How will US project its political, economic,

and military power in Asia?– How will Japan project its political, economic,

and military power in Asia?– How will China project its political, economic,

and military power in Asia?

Long-term Growth 1980 -

• From 1980 to 2000, two regions in the world economy have performed well:– rich OECD economies

• 0.9 billion people• per capita GDP grew by 1.4% a year 1980-2000

– East Asia (excluding Japan)• 1.8 billion people• per capita GDP grew by 5.8% a year 1980-2000

Military Capital Estimates

Asia’s New Security

• Changing nature of security– International security

• Human security– counter-terrorism– environmental protection– drug trade– infectious diseases

International Security

• The geopolitical landscape now lacks the relative stability of the linear Cold War division between the Soviet camp and the US camp

• There is no obvious equivalent to USSR

• US is the world’s sole superpower

• No basic change foreseeable in future

Hot Spots in Asia

• Kashmir

• North Korea

• Taiwan Strait

Nature of Security

• State as rational actors

• State as non-unitary actors

• Actors of international relations besides sovereign states– international organizations– non-governmental organizations– mass public

Human Security

• counter-terrorism

• environmental protection

• drug trade

• infectious diseases

Non-traditional Threats

• ``Threats without enemies”

• Turmoil and chaos from undefined sources

• Cross international borders

• Not linked directly to state behavior

• Far more ambiguous in patterns, processes, and effects than traditional challenges

Comparative Aspects

• Traditional Security– state– national security– structured violence– competition– interaction always lead

to relative gains

• Human Security– individual/community– societal security– unstructured chaos– cooperation– interaction can lead to

absolute gains