illuminating the marketsPower

Copyright © 2019 Argus Media group - www.argusmedia.com - All rights reserved.Trademark notice: ARGUS, the ARGUS logo, ARGUS MEDIA, ARGUS DIRECT,

ARGUS OPEN MARKETS, AOM, FMB, DEWITT, JIM JORDAN & ASSOCIATES, JJ&A, FUNDALYTICS, METAL-PAGES, METALPRICES.COM, Argus publication titles and Argus

index names are trademarks of Argus Media Limited.

Argus White Paper:

Germany’s final hard coal mine closed at the end of 2018 and the country is now moving to eradicate lignite mining. To this end, its commission on growth, structural change and employment (WSB) has published recommendations for phasing out coal and lignite-fired power generation. The WSB recommends, as a first step, the closure of around 20pc of coal and lignite-fired capacity by 2022 — the same timeframe as for Ger-many completing its exit from nuclear power generation. This white paper highlights the impact on the gen-eration mix and wholesale trading in Europe’s largest power market.

The WSB has recommended the closure of up to 8.6GW of lignite and hard coal-fired power capacity by 2022, and an end to power sector coal and lignite burn in 2038.

The commission on 26 January presented its final recommendations on Germany’s phase-out from lignite and coal-fired power generation, as well as on support for lignite mining regions because these economies will go through a structural change.

WSB members had struggled to come to an agreement in the previous meeting, which began on 25 January and lasted

into the night. This reflects the difficult task of weaning Germany off power sector coal and lignite burn, given that the country’s economic prosperity continues to centre around industry in the west and south, leaving east German lignite states fighting for their mines.

The recommendations, if implemented, will have a strong impact on the German merit order, as they would force a significant amount of coal and lignite-fired capacity off line in the short to medium term, and offer additional state support for gas-fired combined heat and power (CHP) generation.

German generation mix TWh

05.0

10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.050.0

Jan 18 Dec 18

Lignite Gas Hard CoalRenewables Nuclear

German coal and lignite generation GWh

Jan 17 Dec 180

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000 Lignite Hard coal

THE WSB PROPOSAL

German coal and lignite phase-out

German coal and lignite phase-out

argusmedia.comCopyright © 2019 Argus Media group

2

Argus White Paper:

Short-term measures 2018-22The WSB recommends reducing the lignite and hard coal-fired capacity available to the wholesale power market to 15GW each by 2022. This would be a 5GW reduction for market-based lignite-fired capacity compared with 2017, and a 7.7GW fall in installed hard coal-fired capacity over the same period. But additional capacity closures would be below this 12.7GW, as market-based lignite and coal-fired capacity fell in 2018 and additional closures or exits from the wholesale market are already earmarked for 2019-20.

Lignite-fired capacity stood at around 20GW at the end of 2017. Around 1.1GW joined the existing lignite plant reserve in October 2018. Another 700MW will join it this October, leaving 18.2GW available to the wholesale market by the fourth quarter. An additional 3.2GW then has to shut down to get to the 15GW of market-based capacity proposed by the WSB. The WSB said in its final document that it would prefer the Hambach forest in North Rhine-Westphalia to be preserved, suggesting that its proposal on near-term lignite-fired closures could hit German utility RWE’s Neurath and Niederaussem plants, which are supplied primarily by the Hambach mine. A court order on logging in Hambach forced RWE to scale back output at Neurath and Niederaussem by 9-13TWh in 2019-21, as the mine would have to be extended to allow the plants to run at full load.

The hard coal capacity closures are less certain. Coal-fired capacity stood at 22.7GW at the end of 2017. The WSB’s final document pegs the closures in 2018-20 at 3.2GW. Nearly 900MW shut down last year, around 1.4GW is earmarked to close by the end of March, and another 200MW is scheduled to shut by 2020. And the WSB includes the potential closure of German utility Uniper’s 760MW hard coal-fired Scholven plant by the start of the next decade. The firm plans to replace the unit with a smaller gas-fired CHP plant at the same site.

These closures would cut hard coal-fired capacity available to the market to 19.5GW by 2020 if Uniper’s 1.1GW Datteln 4 plant does not come on line, or to 20.6GW if it does. Uniper intends to bring the delayed Datteln 4 on line next summer.

But the WSB recommends that the German government

German power sector emissions by fuel 2017 %

CoalGasLigniteNuclearOil

Emissions by lignite plant 2017 mn t

Boxb

erg

Busc

hhau

sD

eube

nFo

rtun

a N

ord

Frim

mer

sdor

fG

olde

nber

gH

KW M

erke

nich

Jans

chw

alde

Lipp

endo

rfMartinswerk…

Neu

rath

Nie

dera

usse

mSc

hkop

auSc

hwar

ze P

umpe

Wah

litz

Wei

swei

ler

050

100150200250300

Energy sector emission targets

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

1990 2014 2018 20300

100

200

300

400

500

600 Emissions, actual/target in mn t/ CO2eCut in % relative to 1990Cut in % relative to 2018

European coal and lignite phase-out plans

Country Possible closure year

Denmark 2020

Austria 2020

France 2022

UK 2025

Italy 2025

Hungary 2025

Portugal 2029

Spain 2030

Netherlands 2030

Ireland 2030

Finland 2030

Germany 2038

German coal and lignite phase-out

argusmedia.comCopyright © 2019 Argus Media group

3

Argus White Paper:

seek negotiations with the owners of under-construction coal-fired plants — which only applies to Datteln 4 — to ensure that these plants are not commissioned.

Based on the 2020 outlook for coal-fired capacity available to the market, Germany would have to shut down 4.5-5.6GW of hard coal capacity by 2022 to get to 15GW of installed capacity, depending on the future of Datteln 4.

The outlook for market-based coal-fired capacity in 2021-22 is uncertain, according to the WSB report. Gas-fired CHP projects could replace up to 1.2GW of coal-fired capacity over that period, although it is uncertain whether these projects could be completed by 2022, according to the WSB.

Added to this, local utility Steag’s Bexbach and Weiher 3 coal-fired units, with total capacity of 1.4GW, could return to the market at the start of the next decade. Steag had planned to mothball the units but they have been declared system relevant and, as a result, have been part of the grid reserve since 2017.

And hard coal-fired plant operators have signalled plans to close 2GW of capacity in 2020-22, but could withdraw plans for shutdowns, the WSB added. This means that coal-fired capacity available to the market could rise by up to 1.4GW in 2020-22, if the Steag units return and there are no additional shutdowns. But the WSB’s base-case scenario sees market-based coal-fired capacity little changed in 2022 against 2020, at 19.3-20.3GW.

The WSB recommends no longer issuing permits for new lignite and coal-fired plants, and that the 2.3GW of hard coal-fired capacity in the grid reserve be replaced by gas-fired units.

Compensation for plant closures in 2018-22 should be

based on the process used when the previous government set up the 2.7GW lignite-fired reserve, or through an auction.

Energy sector greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would fall by at least 45pc against 1990 levels with the implementation of the proposed measures, the WSB said. Energy sector GHG emissions stood at 427mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 1990.

Medium-term measures: 2023-30Market-based capacity should fall to 9GW for lignite-fired plants and to 8GW for hard coal-fired units by 2030, which would force the closure of another 6GW and 7GW, respectively, in 2023-30, the WSB recommends.

Compensation payments would be higher the earlier plants shut down over that period, although this applies only to plants with a life span of 25 years or more.

For lignite closures, Berlin should enter bilateral talks on compensation payments. If these talks fail to conclude by the end of June 2020, the government should set compensation within the framework of what is legally required.

For hard coal-fired plants, the government should introduce an auction scheme where plant owners could bid for a shutdown premium. If tenders are oversubscribed, the premium would be awarded to the plants with the highest CO2 emissions. There would be no tender in years where commercial coal-fired plant closures are sufficient to lower CO2 emissions to meet the target for that year.

The WSB wants power sector GHG emissions to fall steadily in 2023-30 so that they reach 175mn-183mn t of CO2e by 2030.

German utility RWE said the 2038 end date for a coal phase-out and the scope of plant closures recommended by the WSB is ambitious, especially as Germany is phasing out nuclear energy by the end of 2022. The firm pointed out that its lignite-fired business would be severely affected, and said it is open to discussions with the government regarding the WSB recommendations.

The WSB’s wish to preserve the Hambach forest will have a big impact on RWE’s opencast mine planning, technical operations and costs, the firm said. Its Neurath and Niederaussem plants are supplied by the Hambach mine. RWE will shut 1.5GW of lignite-fired capacity by 2023 as part of the lignite reserve agreement with the then government in 2015, 1.2GW of which is already in the existing lignite reserve. And the firm assumes that its 1.8GW Weisweiler coal-fired plant will close by 2030, based on the WSB recommendations.

Czech-owned Leag expects the government to carry out an “extensive and responsible” review of the final report and the 2038 end date, taking into consideration security of supply and the competitiveness of the German lignite industry. “An even greater danger would be a more advanced exit date in 2035,” Leag chief executive Helmar Rendez said.

The firm’s business plan, which includes mining beyond 2040 in the Lausitzer territory, would be negatively affected if the WSB recommendations go ahead with a 2038 deadline.

German utility EnBW expressed hope that the government will pay particular attention to criteria such as emissions intensity and the importance of power plants for security of supply in some regions when determining a shutdown sequence. “EnBW power stations are comparatively low in emissions and system relevant,” the company said.

And Swedish-state owned Vattenfall said its Moorburg coal-fired plant is one of the “newest and most efficient power plants” and so should run as long as legally possible.

German utility Uniper said it is open to discussions with the government on addressing the future of its 1.1GW Datteln 4 coal-fired plant, following the WSB recommendation that talks should be held to prevent any new units from coming on line. “In view of the huge investments and contractual obligations arising from this project, this requires substantial discussion, also with our customers of this power plant,” chief operating officer Eckhardt Rummler said. The government will have to overcome financial and legal hurdles to prevent Datteln 4 coming on line, Uniper said.

Utility reactions to the WSB recommendations

German coal and lignite phase-out

argusmedia.comCopyright © 2019 Argus Media group

4

Argus White Paper:

13

Total Emissions (mn t)

22 76 244

Lignite Coal

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

Nordrhein-Westfalen

Baden-Württemberg

Schleswig-Holstein

Rheinland-Pfalz

Sachsen-Anhalt

Niedersachsen

Brandenburg

Thüringen

Hamburg

Saarland

Sachsen

Bremen

Hessen

Bayern

Berlin

German coal and lignite plant emissions

German coal and lignite phase-out

argusmedia.comCopyright © 2019 Argus Media group

5

Argus White Paper:

End dateThe WSB proposes 2038 as the end date for coal and lignite-fired generation. In 2032, there should be a review of whether this could be moved forward to 2035, subject to negotiations with plant operators. But experts would also review in 2032 whether a complete phase-out in 2038 remains realistic.

CHP, gas plantsThe WSB recommends extending subsidies for new gas-fired CHP units from 2023 now to 2030, in an attempt to spur investments in new gas-fired units. This could provide additional support for German power sector gas burn on top of the expected rise in running hours for existing gas-fired units as coal and lignite-fired capacity falls.

The coal-to-gas fuel switch bonus — paid out when new gas-fired CHP plants replace existing coal and lignite-fired units at the same site — should be made “more attractive” from 2026, and innovative projects compatible with running on green gas should receive government support, the WSB recommends. The fuel-switch bonus in the CHP law is €6/MWh.

The WSB also recommends a review of whether the permitting procedure for new gas-fired plants — CHP or non-CHP — could be accelerated, especially for projects to be located at the site of old coal-fired units.

EU ETSThe German government should reduce the number of EU emissions trading system (ETS) certificates it offers in auctions by the amount of emissions cuts resulting from the coal and lignite-fired plant closures, the WSB recommends.

CheckpointsAn expert panel should review the proposed WSB measures in 2023, 2026 and 2029 to evaluate security of supply, emissions cuts and the development of electricity prices.

Other measuresThe WSB recommends that the government review the introduction of CO2 pricing in non-EU ETS sectors to aid the

electrification of other sectors such as transport and heating and the development of technologies such as power-to-x storage facilities.

The WSB also recommends a number of measures to reduce the impact on households and energy-intensive industries of rising wholesale power prices caused by falling coal and lignite-fired generation capacity. These measures include lowering grid fees for all consumers and extending the compensation to energy-intensive industries for the CO2 price component in electricity prices to 2030 from 2020, subject to approval from the European Commission.

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU-CSU union and the SPD party agreed in their coalition treaty, signed in March 2018, to set up a commission tasked with drawing up a plan for the gradual exit from hard coal and lignite-fired generation. The treaty also includes a pledge to pass a climate protection bill in 2019 that will embed into law the national GHG reduction target for 2030 — a cut of at least 55pc against a 1990 base line.

Crucially, the planned climate protection law will include legally binding 2030 targets for individual sectors, including the energy sector, which the previous coalition between the CDU-CSU and the SPD set as part of their 2050 climate action roadmap in 2016. And the coalition agreement set a target that renewable energy meet 65pc of gross demand by 2030, compared with the previous target of a 55-60pc share by 2035.

The government agreed on the exact set-up of the WSB in June 2018. The WSB’s mandate was to provide recommendations on three key areas — how to close the gap to Germany’s target of reducing its GHG emissions by 40pc in 2020 against 1990 levels, how to gradually exit coal and lignite-fired power generation — including end dates for both, with a view to comfortably meeting the energy sector target for 2030 — and how to help lignite mining regions manage structural changes in their economies.

Members of the WSB come from a wide spectrum, ranging from environmental groups to trade unions representing lignite miners. The aim was to come up with recommendations that would find public and cross-party support and allow the setting of stable framework conditions, amid concern that future

German lignite capacity under WSB plan GW

0

5

10

15

20

25

2017 2019 2020 2022

German hard coal capacity under WSB plan GW

0

5

10

15

20

25

2017 2019 2020 2020 Datteln 2022

German coal and lignite phase-out

argusmedia.comCopyright © 2019 Argus Media group

6

Argus White Paper:

German nuclear capacity by year end GW

012345678910

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

administrations would otherwise revisit the debate and change the path for the exit from power sector lignite and coal burn.

But the WSB recommends putting the 2023, 2026 and 2029 checkpoints in place to review the impact of the phase-out. This provides a certain amount of flexibility and leaves the door open for future governments to amend the exit path.

Next stepsThe government will review the WSB recommendations intensely and swiftly, German economy and energy minister Peter Altmaier said on 25 January. It will then have to discuss with members of the lower house of parliament (Bundestag) which laws need to be passed to implement the measures that Berlin wants to pursue, and in which order. The latter will depend on which measures are deemed to be of the highest priority.

The German government has to enter negotiations with power plant operators on shutdowns and compensation payments, as well as with the European Commission because some of the proposed measures will require state aid approval.

German power gas burn ‘could double by 2023’German power sector gas burn could more than double by 2023 if Berlin implements the lignite and coal-fired plant closures recommended by the WSB.

The WSB plan would take an additional 3.2GW of lignite-fired capacity and around 4.5-5.5GW of hard coal-fired capacity off line by 2022.

If the government follows the recommendations it will have to negotiate with affected plant owners to determine when units come off line and any compensation due. Lignite and coal-fired shutdowns are expected to accelerate in 2021-22 to allow time for the political process and talks with operators.

Meanwhile, Germany’s nuclear phase-out law requires the remaining 9.5GW to come off line in three steps — 1.3GW this year, 4.1GW by the end of 2021 and 4.1GW by the end of 2022.

Nuclear, coal, ligniteIf the WSB plan on near-term closures is fully implemented, Germany will close 22.2GW of nuclear, lignite and hard coal-fired capacity between the end of 2017 and the start of 2023.

The market will lose 70-72TWh of nuclear power in 2023 compared with current levels, assuming a load factor of just above 90pc. Germany’s nuclear power plants produced around 72TWh last year, at a 94pc load factor.

At prevailing EU ETS prices of around €25/t of CO2e, lignite-fired plants would continue to be embedded in the merit order at the start of the next decade and run at high load factors. And hard coal-fired plants in 2023 would probably run at slightly higher load factors than in recent years — load factors for power sector hard coal burn averaged 49pc in 2015, but fell to 42pc last year as renewables output rose on nuclear closures.

Output from the remaining 30GW of coal and lignite-fired capacity could be around 170TWh by 2023, assuming today’s

market conditions, compared with 216TWh in 2017 and 205TWh in 2018.

RenewablesRenewables are likely to replace nuclear output and lower power sector coal and lignite burn to some extent in 2023.

Germany had nearly 53GW of onshore wind capacity at the end of 2018. Wind power association BWE expects 2GW to be added in 2019 — below the government’s 2.5 GW/yr target — and slower growth to continue into 2020. It expects additions to recover from 2021 as additional auction volumes take effect. This could put onshore capacity at 64-65GW by the start of 2023.

Offshore wind capacity is on track to reach 7.7GW by 2020. Projects earmarked to start operations in 2021-25 are likely to come on line towards the end of that period, leaving capacity by the start of 2023 at around 7.7GW.

Solar photovoltaic (PV) additions last year are likely to have met the 2.5 GW/yr target for the first time since 2013. Assuming growth in 2019-20 in line with the target and slightly higher additions in 2021-22 thanks to extra auctions, capacity could be close to 58GW by the start of 2023, against 45.5GW now.

Assuming that output from hydro, biomass and other renewables in 2023 is in line with the 2014-18 average, and that average load factors for onshore and offshore wind and solar PV are the same as for the past 24 months, renewable generation could be around 267TWh in 2023, against 210TWh in 2017 and 220TWh in 2018.

Minding the gapIf Germany’s lignite and coal-fired plant closures take place at the same time as its nuclear exit, its net power exports are likely to fall sharply. Research institute Aurora Energy says the country’s net exports could stand at around 3TWh in 2023, if

THE POTEnTiAL imPAcT On THE POWER And GAS mARkETS

German coal and lignite phase-out

argusmedia.comCopyright © 2019 Argus Media group

7

Argus White Paper:

German clean dark, spark spreads 2020, 2022 €/MWh

2 Jan 8 Jan 14 Jan 20 Jan 26 Jan 1 Feb-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6 CSS 2020 55% CSS 2022 55%CDS 2020 40% CDS 2022 40%

German coal closures to boost NWE gas import demandThe bulk of Germany’s short-term coal-fired plant closures could coincide with sharp cuts to gas output from the Neth-

combined coal and lignite-fired capacity falls to 28GW by the start of 2023, slightly lower than the WSB’s 30GW proposal.

Commercial net exports peaked at 60.2TWh in 2017 and were 52.1TWh last year. German consumption hit 557TWh in 2018 and is expected to remain stable in the years ahead.

Even higher renewable generation and lower net exports would not fully replace the loss of nuclear and reduced lignite and coal-fired output, leaving gas-fired plants to plug the gap.

Assuming net exports of 3-5TWh and stable domestic demand, gas-fired generation could be about 100TWh in 2023, up from 49.06TWh in 2017 and 43.8TWh last year. A greater call on gas is already being priced into the market for 2022.

Base-load clean spark spreads for 2022 delivery surpassed €5/MWh on 28 January for 55pc-efficient plants, up from €3.06/MWh on 21 January, before the WSB draft proposal emerged, Argus data show. Clean spark spreads for 2022 delivery are also well above 2020, at €3.61/MWh and €1.78/MWh, respectively, for 55pc-efficient plants on 1 February, reflecting additional nuclear closures at the end of 2021 and the expected acceleration of lignite and coal-fired plant closures in 2021-22.

And clean dark spreads for the most modern coal-fired plants, with 46pc efficiency, for delivery in 2022 ended 1 February at €7.84/MWh, against €5.53/MWh on 21 January. This reflects the fact that the remaining coal-fired units are expected to be called on more frequently if the WSB plan is implemented.

Gas-fired capacity available to the market stands at 24.4GW. Several smaller-scale CHP plants are under construction and some will replace older units. Gas-fired capacity is likely to be around 25GW by the end of this year. But firmer clean spreads could draw units such as the highly efficient Irsching 4 and 5 combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) back into the market. The units, with combined capacity of 1.4GW, are in the grid reserve, with utility Uniper and partners

erlands’ Groningen field, boosting northwest European gas import demand from 2022-23 and potentially increasing the incentive to build new infrastructure such as LNG terminals.

German gas-fired generation could more than double by 2023 from current levels if the government implements the WSB recommendations in full, assuming electricity demand is broadly stable and depending on the development of renewable capacity. This could broadly coincide with substantial cuts in Groningen production, which are being implemented to help reduce seismic activity in the region.

Dutch gas system operator GTS said in December that it could be possible to bring Groningen output below 5bn m³ in the 2022-23 gas year, even if temperatures are lower than the long-term average. This would be down from 20.1bn m³ in the 2017-18 gas year and 24bn m³ in October 2016-September 2017.

Some reductions may be possible next year and in 2021, but the sharpest fall could occur in 2022 when a new quality conversion facility is expected on line. The conversion of the Netherlands’ nine largest industrial users of low-calorie gas to high-calorie supply is also due to be completed by 2022.

Any cuts at Groningen would have to be almost entirely offset by higher high-calorie supply. And output from Dutch small fields as well as German output have been in long-term decline and are expected to fall further in the coming years, which may further cut into northwest European supply.

Russian gas deliveries to riseQuicker deliveries from Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom could cover a substantial share of northwest Europe’s stronger gas import demand.

Gazprom’s sales to Europe, excluding the Baltic States, and Turkey reached a record 201bn m³ in 2018, up from 194.4bn m³ a year earlier, partly driven by strong deliveries to Germany, the Netherlands and France. And the firm expects sales to increase until at least 2025. It is discussing selling up to 50bn m³/yr of additional gas to European buyers under medium and long-term contracts.

Its planned 55bn m³/yr Nord Stream 2 and 31.5bn m³/yr Turkish Stream pipelines could lift its capacity to supply the region. Both are targeted for completion at the end of 2019.

But Norwegian deliveries to northwest Europe could be slightly slower early in the next decade than in recent years. The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate expects its annual sales in 2019-23 to not surpass the 2017 peak of 122bn m³. Sales edged lower last year to 121.7bn m³.

Stronger consumption and weaker domestic production in northwest Europe could also result in the region relying on the southern part of the continent for additional supply, especially in periods of strong demand. Southern Europe’s supply could rise early in the next decade as gas from the second phase of Azerbaijan’s Shakh Deniz field is delivered to Italy through the planned Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (Tap).

Tap is expected to come on line in 2020 with initial capacity of 10bn m³/yr, but could later expand to 20bn m³/yr. Reverse flow capacity from Italy to Germany and France

German coal and lignite phase-out

argusmedia.comCopyright © 2019 Argus Media group

8

Argus White Paper:

through Switzerland became available last year, but has barely been used in recent months.

LNG could help plug supply gapThere could be ample scope for northwest Europe to ramp up LNG imports compared with recent years, when terminals across the region were used well below capacity.

Regasification across all European LNG terminals was around 25pc in 2017, although it may have increased slightly last year because of strong sendout in the fourth quarter.Europe’s LNG receipts have risen considerably this winter as a result of greater global liquefaction capacity and demand for new supply not keeping pace in northeast Asia, given stronger nuclear output in Japan and South Korea and mild weather.

And liquefaction capacity is expected to rise further, driven in particular by new US terminals. This could bolster deliveries to Europe in the next couple of years, subject to how quickly demand grows outside Europe, in areas such as China, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh.

And further growth in global LNG export capacity is expected towards the middle of the next decade, with Qatargas planning to expand its Ras Laffan facility to 110mn t/yr from 77mn t/yr. A final investment decision (FID) is due at the end of this year. Russia also plans to substantially boost LNG output early next decade through projects on its Arctic coastline. Europe’s LNG supply this winter has been boosted in particular by receipts from Russia’s Yamal LNG project.

And several projects in Africa could add to global liquefaction capacity early next decade, subject to FIDs.

An incentive for Germany’s LNG projects?There may be ample spare regasification capacity in other European countries, but the prospect of strong German demand because of the coal phase-out could boost the country’s incentive to push ahead with plans for LNG import terminals.

German chancellor Angela Merkel has said that establishing LNG infrastructure could help with the “important” diversification of supply sources and that the government is looking to accelerate plans to build a terminal.

There are plans for LNG terminals at three locations in northern Germany, all targeted for completion in 2022-23 — when stronger gas-fired generation could bolster import demand — but it remains uncertain which will go ahead.

Germany’s Uniper and Japanese shipping firm Mitsui OSK Lines in December agreed to work towards establishing an import terminal in Wilhelmshaven. The planned floating storage and regasification unit could become operational by the second half of 2022 and have sendout capacity of 10bn m³/yr. Uniper reached a non-binding agreement with ExxonMobil in late January for long-term regasification capacity at the complex.

German LNG terminal — a joint venture between Dutch-German system operator Gasunie and storage tank operators Vopak and Oiltanking — plans to develop an import facility in Brunsbuttel with an expected 5bn m³/yr of capacity. The site could come on line in late 2022, with the operator planning an FID by the end of 2020. German utility RWE signed a long-term deal for regasification capacity at Brunsbuttel in September.

And there are plans for an LNG facility in Stade, which could become operational in 2023. It will have initial capacity of 4bn m³/yr, which would double in a second stage, according to the project partners, which include chemical company Dow.

Berlin has said it has no preference on location, and that it is conceivable that more than one facility will be built.

Gazprom pipeline sales to selected countries bn m³Norwegian gas sales bn m³

New European Electricity Content Available In Argus Direct

Argus Direct subscribers can now access proprietary European electricity fundamentals data focusing on:

• Plant projects • Plant closures • Interconnector projects • Hedged production Access new content and discover the benefits of Argus Direct - sales@argusmedia.com

illuminating the markets EventsConsulting

Market Reporting