Appendix 1: Population trends 2001 - 2026

The Population

Demographic information is not available for the combined areas of New Forest District and the NationalPark. The information in this section relates to New Forest District (including the part within the NationalPark). However, the demographic patterns and trends shown in this data give a good indication of what ishappening in the whole area.

Recent population projections for New Forest District indicate that the district’s population numbers willpeak in 2006. If the future level of development in the district is as proposed in the submitted South EastPlan, despite over 4,000 new dwellings being built, by 2026 there would be 7,500 fewer people livinghere. (See Figure 1)

Parish Population (est.) 2005 Parish Population (est.) 2005

Totton 28,300 Marchwood 5,800

New Milton and Barton-on-Sea

24,200 Milford on Sea 4,600

Hythe and Dibden 20,400 Bransgore 4,200

Lymington 14,600 Brockenhurst 3,400

Fawley (incl. Blackfieldand Holbury)

14,300 Sway 3,400

Ringwood 13,600 Lyndhurst 3,000

Fordingbridge 6,000 Ashurst 2,000

Source: Hampshire County Council’s 2005-based Small Area Population Forecasts for Parishes

FUTURE MATTERS : ISSUES AND OPTIONS FOR THE NEW FOREST - A PUBLIC CONSULTATION 63

200,000

180,000

160,000

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0

Nu

mb

er

Dwellings Population

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

Figure 1: Population and DwellingsNew Forest District 2001 to 2026

However, despite the decline in population numbers there is predicted to be an additional 6,400households within the district. (See Figure 2.) These extra households are the result of demographicchanges in the resident population – divorce, separations, and living longer.

While the number of ‘married couple households will decline, their will be an additional 8,000 singleperson households. Most single person households are middle aged or older people. (See Figure 3)

Over the next twenty years the age profile of the local population shows a trend towards an ageingpopulation. (See Figure 4). By 2026 the school age population (5 to 15 years) is expected to fall by 5,000to16,500, while the number of residents over 65 will have risen by around 14,000 to over 54,700.

FUTURE MATTERS : ISSUES AND OPTIONS FOR THE NEW FOREST - A PUBLIC CONSULTATION64

80,000

75,000

70,000

65,000

60,000

55,000

50,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

Year

Nu

mb

er Total heads

Figure 2: growth in number of households in New Forest District

45,000

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

Nu

mb

er

Year

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

Married couple hhs.

Lone parent hhs.

One person hhs

Cohabiting Couple hhs.

Other hhs.

Figure 3: Household Types New Forest District 2001 - 2026

There are wide variations in population characteristics within the district. The age profile in Totton and theWaterside is similar to Hampshire as a whole, while the southern coastal area has a very high proportion ofresidents over retirement age. (See Figure 5.)

FUTURE MATTERS : ISSUES AND OPTIONS FOR THE NEW FOREST - A PUBLIC CONSULTATION 65

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

Nu

mb

er

Age group

00-04 05-15 16-29 30-44 45-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2001

2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

Figure 4: Population Age-Structure New Forest District 2001 - 2026

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Perc

enta

ge

of

Are

a To

tal

Yr 0-4 Yr 5-15 Yr 16-29 Yr 30-44 Yr 45-64 Yr 65+

Age group

National Park

Totton & Waterside

Coastal Area

Avon Valley & Downlands

Figure 5: Population by Age Group and Area

Economic activity

Economic activity rates within New Forest District are lower than for Hampshire as a whole – with 47% ofthe District population economically active, compared with 52% for Hampshire. In the next twenty years,the economically active population in the district is predicted to fall (by nearly 9,000) – possibly to as low as44% of the population, while in Hampshire it will remain above 50%. Figure 6 shows the range ofestimates of how many economically active people there will be in the district over the period to 2026.

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2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

Year

90,000

85,000

80,000

75,000

70,000

Nu

mb

er

Figure 6: Economically Active Population New Forest District 2001 - 2026

Chelmer High

Chelmer Mid

Office of National Statistics

Source for all charts : Hampshire County Council 2006 : Long term Population and Housing Projections using the Chelmer Model.