API Automotive/Petroleum Industry Forum Alessandro Faldi/media/Files/Certification/Engine-Oil... · ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy Global Demand 2040 by fuel Quadrillion BTUs

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2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 2017. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

API Automotive/Petroleum Industry Forum

Alessandro FaldiApril 17, 2018

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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

Global Trends Continue to Evolve

+1.7 billionpeople

2xGDP

+25%demand

+10%CO2 emissions

-45%CO2 intensity

Percent

Growth from 2016 level 2016

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Global Efficiency Limits Demand GrowthEnergy demand

Quadrillion BTUs

OECD

Energy savings

China

India

Other AP Non-OECD

Rest of World

Share of primary energy demand by region

Share of Quadrillion BTUs

United States

Other OECD

China

India

Other Non-OECD

Europe OECD

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Energy Demand Varies by Sector

Primary energy demand by sector

Quadrillion BTUs

'16

'25

'40

Other renewables

Biomass

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Oil

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Liquids Demand Reflects Economic Growth & EfficiencyMBDOE

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2020 2040

Light Duty

CommercialTransportation

Chemicals

Other Industrial

Power / Res/Comm

Versatile Gas Competes in Every Sector

BCFD

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2020 2040

Transportation

Other Industrial

Chemicals

Res/Comm

ElectricityGeneration

Heavy Industry

Focus on Growth Sectors

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Transportation demand

MBDOE

Light duty

Heavy duty

Rail

Aviation

Marine

Transportation Demand Driven by Commerce

Growth 1990-2040

Index

GDP

Commercial

Light duty

2016

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Global Transportation Energy Mix Evolves

Demand by fuel

MBDOE

Gasoline

Diesel

Fuel oil

Natural gas

Other

Jet fuel

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Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes

201620252040

0

100

200

300

400

500

NorthAmerica

Europe China India Other AP Middle East LatinAmerica

Rest ofWorld

Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell

Hybrid

Natural Gas & LPG

Diesel

Gasoline

0

100

200

300

400

500

NorthAmerica


Rest ofWorld

0

100

200

300

400

500

NorthAmerica


Rest ofWorld

Powertrain Technology

Million Vehicles

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New Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2020 2030 2040

Average New Vehicle Efficiency

On-Road Miles per Gallon

U.S.

Global Average

Europe

New Vehicles by Type

Million

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2020 2030 2040

0

50

100

150

2016 2025 2040

Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell

Hybrid

Natural Gas & LPG

Diesel

Gasoline

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Policy and Consumer Choices Impact Demand

Electric vehicles grow rapidly

Million cars

Battery electrics

Plug-in hybrids

Liquids demand remains resilient

MBDOE

Total liquids demand

Light-duty liquids demand

Shaded ranges are indicative of potential shifts in demand relative to base Outlook

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Light duty transportation

Power generation /Residential / Commercial

Commercial transportation

Chemicals

Sensitivity liquids demand

Other industrial

Hypothetical Electric Vehicle Sensitivity

Liquids demand by sector

MBDOE

Sensitivity

Outlook

Power generation

Light duty transportation

Global emissions

Energy-related CO2 emissions

Billion tonnes

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Supply Highlights Technology Gains

MBDOE

Liquids supply by type

Other liquids

Biofuels

Conventional crude and condensate

Tight oil

Oil sands

NGLs

Deepwater

0

200

400

600

2010 2025 2040

Natural Gas supply by type

BCFD

Local Production

Pipeline

LNG

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Technology Expands Recoverable Resources

Thousand TCF

Recoverable gas resources are abundant and widespread

Source: IEA

Cumulative production

Remaining resource

Trillion Barrels

Crude & condensate technically recoverable resources

Sources: USGS, IEA

Cumulative production

Remaining resource

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Energy Mix Shifts to Lower-carbon Fuels

Global energy mix

Percent

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Wind/Solar

Other renewables

Oil

Energy-related CO2 emissions peak

Billion tonnes

North America

Europe

China

Other Asia Pacific

Russia/Caspian

Latin America

Africa

Middle East

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Emissions Vary with Policy Ambition

Global energy-related CO2 emissionsBillion tonnes

AssessedBaseline scenarios

Assessed 2oC scenarios

2018 Outlook for Energy

EMF27-FT cases include CO2 emissions from energy and industrial processes

Baseline and 2oC scenarios based on Stanford EMF27 full technology scenarios

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Technology Key to Reducing Societal Costs of 2oC Pathway

Existing Advances Breakthrough

Costs borne by society to lower GHG emissions

(e.g. natural gas, wind, solar)

(e.g. negative emissions, storage,CCS, advanced biofuels)

Policy / Technology matrix is illustrative only

Hypothetical ~2oC policy /technology frontier

Technology advancement

Low policycosts

High policycosts

Technology advances likely to reduce costs of policies on society

17ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy

Two Paths to CO2 Reduction

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2005 2016

Percent

United States Generation Share

Wind & Solar

Oil

Coal

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Gas

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2005 2016

Percent

Germany Generation Share

0

200

400

600

UnitedStates

Germany

CO2 Intensity of Generation

g CO2/kWh generation

2005

2016

Sources: EIA, UBA

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Global Demand

2040 by fuel

Quadrillion BTUs

Average Growth / Yr. 2016 - 2040

0.9%

2016

0.7%

1.3%

-0.1%

1.6%

Nuclear

Biomass

Solar / Wind / Biofuels

Hydro / Geothermal

• Fossil fuels remain dominant

• Oil growth driven by commercial transportation and chemicals

• Gas demand led by electricity & industrial needs

• Renewables grow in powergen

• Policy shifts and consumer choices greatest uncertainties

• Technology provides opportunities and manages uncertainty risk

Additional Charts

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Transportation Fuel Mix by Region

0

10

20

30

2000 2020 2040

0

10

20

30

2000 2020 2040

0

10

20

30

2000 2020 2040

Asia PacificMBDOE

Diesel

Gasoline

Jet Fuel

Fuel Oil

Other

Natural Gas

North AmericaMBDOE

EuropeMBDOE

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Renewables and Gas Capture Growth

Change in net delivered electricity 2016-2040

Thousand TWh Share of TWh

Wind / Solar share of delivered electricity

North America

Europe Asia Pacific

Middle East

Africa World

Wind

Solar

Solar capacity Wind capacity

'16

'40

The Energy Challenge

2040 Global Demand: Outlook vs. IEA Scenarios

Quadrillion BTUs

Source: Estimates based on IEA World Energy Outlook 2017 and 2018 Outlook for Energy; includes adjustments to common basis

0

200

400

600

800

2016 IEA CP IEA NPS 18EO IEA SD

Coal

Gas

Oil

Renewables

Nuclear

Documents

API Automotive/Petroleum Industry Forum Alessandro Faldi/media/Files/Certification/Engine-Oil... · ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy Global Demand 2040 by fuel Quadrillion BTUs