1

“WhyDidMH17Crash?”BlameAttribution,TelevisionNewsandPublicOpinioninSoutheasternUkraine,CrimeaandtheDeFactoStatesofAbkhazia,SouthOssetia,and

Transnistria

published in GEOPOLITICS Vol 23, no. 4, 2018: 882-896

GerardToal

SchoolofPublicandInternationalAffairs

VirginiaTech,NationalCapitalRegion

Alexandria,VA22314

toalg@vt.edu

&

JohnO’Loughlin

InstituteofBehavioralScience

UniversityofColorado-Boulder

Boulder,CO80309

johno@colorado.edu

2

ABSTRACT

Shockeventsareoftenpivotalmomentingeopolitics,andobjectsofintensedisagreement

amongconflictingparties.ThispaperexaminesthedowningofaMalaysianAirlines

passengerjetovereasternUkraineinJuly2014andthedivergentblamestorylines

producedonRussianandUkrainiantelevisionabouttheevent.Itthenexaminesresultsofa

questionaskingwhydidMH17crashinasimultaneoussurveyconductedinDecember

2014insixoblastsinSoutheasternUkraine,Crimea,andthedefactostatesofAbkhazia,

SouthOssetia,andTransnistria.Analysisofthesurveysshowsthatblameattributionwas

drivenmorebytelevisionviewinghabitsthananyotherfactor.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

ThisresearchwassupportedbyaRAPID[grant14-1442646]fromtheUSNationalScience

Foundationfortheproject“AttitudesandBeliefsintheRussian-Supported‘defacto’States

andinSouth-eastUkraineintheWakeoftheCrimeanAnnexation.”Theauthorswishto

thankNataliaKharchenkoandVolodymyrPaniottooftheKyivInternationalInstituteof

Sociology(KIIS),andAlexeiGrazdankinoftheLevadaCenter,fortheircooperationinthe

refinementofthesurveyquestionaireandtheirsubsequentsupervisionandprofessional

administrationofthesurveyinmultiplelocationsinlate2014.ThanksalsotoGela

Merabishviliforresearchandtranslationworkonthetelevisionnewsreports.Finally,the

commentsoftwoanonymousreviewersforGeopoliticshelpedrefineandsharpenour

argument.

3

On17July2014MalaysianAirlines(MH)Flight17wasenroutefromAmsterdamtoKuala

LumpurwhenitwasshotfromtheskiesovereasternUkraine.Twohundredandeighty

threepassengersandacrewoffifteenwerekilled.Travelersfromtencountriesdied,

includingonehundredandninety-threefromtheNetherlands.Belowtheplane’sflightpath

awarbetweenRussian-backedseparatistrebelsandUkrainiangovernmentforceswasin

itsfourthmonth.RebelforceschallengingKyiv’scontroloveritsterritory,includingits

skies,werelosingground.DaysearliertheirmilitaryformationshadshotdownaUkrainian

AirForceAn-26(14July)andaUkrainianSu-25M1(16July).Inacomprehensivefinal

reportonthecauseofthedowningofMH17inOctober2015,theDutchSafetyBoard,the

groupleadingatechnicalinvestigationofthecrash,foundthattheplanehadbeendowned

bya9N314Mwarheadona9M38missilelaunchedbyaBuksurface-to-airsystem.1

DeterminingwholaunchedtheBukmissilewasnotwithintheremitoftheDutchSafety

BoardbutwaswithinthatofaDutchledJointInvestigatingCommittee(JIC).Inlate

September2016theyreleasedapreliminaryreportbasedonextensiveforensicanalysis,

audiointersectionsandoverahundredinterviewswitheyewitnessesandotherinformants.

ThisconcludedthatflightMH17wasshotdownbya9M38missile,launchedbyaBukfrom

farmlandinthevicinityofPervomaiskiy.2Atthattime,theareawascontrolledbypro-

Russianseparatistfighters.TheJICinvestigationdemonstratedthattheBukhadbeen

transportedfromtheRussianFederationandsubsequently,havingdestroyedMH17,was

takenbacktotheRussianFederation.3TheRussiangovernmentmaintainsthatnoBukever

crossedintoUkrainefromRussia.RussianForeignMinistryspokeswomanMaria

ZakharovadescribedtheJICfindingsas“biasedandpoliticallymotivated.”4

BeforeknowledgethatacivilianpassengerjetandnotaUkrainianmilitaryaircraft

hadbeendestroyed,asocialmediaaccountassociatedwiththeRussianmilitary

adventurerIgorGirkin(nomdeguerreStrelkov,or‘shooter’)proclaimedthatrebelshad

shotdownaUkrainianAn-26nearTorez,alongwiththedeclaration:“Wewarnedthem-

don’tfly‘inoursky.’”5Assoonasitbecameevidentthatacommercialpassengeraircraft

wasdestroyed,MH17becametheobjectofanintensestruggleoverblameattribution–the

projectionofblameontocertainactorsandnotothers-betweenthewarringpartiesin

Ukraine,theirregionalallies,andtheinternationalcommunity.(Strelkov’spostwassoon

deleted).Theviolentdeathofsomanyciviliansfromdifferentcountriesoverawarzone

4

renderedwhatwassupposedtobealocalkineticeventinamilitarystruggleintoa

worldwidemediaspectacle.Picturesandstoriesofthetragedyfillednewsprogramsand

newspapersforthefollowingweek,andperiodicallythereafterasvictimremainswere

recoveredandtheDutchinvestigationsgotunderway.Western-basedfree-lancesocial

mediainvestigatorslikeBellingcatdrovemuchoftheinitialforensicinvestigationofthe

event.6Onmultiplemediafronts,theconflictingpartiesviedtoorganize,controland

channeltheaffectgeneratedbythehorrificincident.Centraltothiseffortwasthe

organizationandframingofMH17withinready-madeblameattributionandvictimization

narratives,narrativesthatdefinedandgavemeaningtothebroaderstrugglesover

Ukraine.7

Narrativeisthesocialpracticeofproducingrelativelycoherentaccountsofevents,

actorsandmotivations.Framingistheculturallyshapedcognitivepracticeofclassifying

andparticularizingthatisvitaltothecreationofnarratives.8Thispaperexaminesthe

contrastingblameattributionstorylinesthatquicklycongealedonRussianandUkrainian

televisioninthewakeoftheMH17tragedy,andwhatsurveyrespondentsinRussia,

contestedregionsofUkraine(Crimeaandsixofeightcontestedoblastsinsoutheast

Ukraine,hereafterSE6),andRussian-supporteddefactostatesinitsnearabroad

subsequentlybelievedaboutwhyMH17crashed.Theemergenceofclearlydivergentblame

attributionstorylines,andtheirpersistence,allowsustoexaminethedegreetowhich

televisionviewinghabits,interactingwithothersocio-demographic,locationalandpolitical

factors,accountsforvariationsinpeople’sbeliefsaboutMH17.Shockingandhorrific

eventsoccurregularlyinthecourseofviolentconflicts.Likethegenocidalkillingsaround

SrebrenicainJuly1995,theMH17tragedyisaninstanceofhowconflictingpartiesand

theirstatesponsors,withthetelevisionmediaundertheircontrol,produceself-protective

bubblesofbeliefaboutshockeventsthatreproducesgeopoliticalantagonism,regardlessof

forensicfacts.9Intheeraofdigitalmediaascendancy,wheregeo-locationaldataaremore

abundantthanever,truthisstillacasualtyofwarbutitsdeathincontrolledinfo-spheresis

nowmorecloselyobserved.10

Thispaperiscomposedofthreeparts.Partonebrieflydiscussesshockeventsin

internationalaffairsandtheresearchquestionstheypresent.Parttwoisanexaminationof

theemergenceofblameattributionstorylinesintheweekthatfollowednewsofthe

5

downingofMH17.AnalyzingnewscoverageofMH17bythemostwatchedtelevision

stationsinRussiaandUkraine,thepaperdocumentshowthedowningofMH17was

initiallypresentedtothepublicinbothcountriesandtoalliedterritoriesabroad.Partthree

ofthepaperthenexaminesthedegreetowhichthesecontrastingstorylinesofblame

resonatedwithvaryingpublics.DrawinguponresultsfromsimultaneoussurveysinSE6,

Crimea,Abkhazia,TransnistriaandSouthOssetiainDecember2014organizedbythe

authors,thepaperexaminestherelativesupportthatdifferentblameoptionsreceived

fromrespondents.

I.MAKINGSENSEOFSHOCKEVENTS

Worldpoliticshasalwaysbeenmarkedbyshockeventsthathavedistinctive

geographiesandmaterialities.Themeaningoftheseeventsisnevermanifestlyclearand

oftenfiercelycontested.Nevertheless,shockingeventshavehistoricallycreatedwindows

ofopportunityfortransformationalpoliticalactionandchange.Withtheadventof

televisionasthepredominantsourceofinternationalnewsformostpublics,thiscontestis

amulti-mediastruggleofconjoinedsounds,imagesandnarratives.11Shockeventshave

manydifferentforms.Theycanbesingularinstancesofkillingthatslowlycometolight(e.g.

Srebrenica),violentrevolutions(thedenouementofEuromaidan),orsurprisingstate

powerplays(theannexationofCrimea).Terroristattacksareadistinctivegenreofshock

events,distinctfromcatastrophicnaturaleventsandaccidents,inthattheyareplanned

andpurposeful.ShockingeventsliketheOklahomaCitybombingin1995,theMoscow

apartmentbombingsofAugust1999,theSeptember2011attacks,theBeslanschoolsiege

of2004,andtheMumbaiterroristassaultsofNovember2008areexamplesofhow

catastrophicformsofterrorismbecomeglobalmediaevents,spectaclesofviolencewith

capacitiestotriggeraffectivestormsofshock,angerandsympathy.12Theyalsocreatewell

knownopportunitiesfortheconsolidationofpowerbythoseinpositionsofauthority.13

Horrorhasitsuses.14

Airplanecrashesareagenrethatdefyeasycharacterizationfortheycanbe

accidentsorpurposefulcasesofterrorism(aswith9/11orthedowningofPanAmflight

103inNovember1988bytheLibyangovernment).ThecrashofTWAflight800,a

passengeraircraftthatexplodedon17July1996aftertakeofffromNewYork,wasinitially

6

consideredaterroristattackuntilaninvestigationdeterminedthatafueltankshortcircuit

wasmostlikelytoblame.Insomecases,thedestructionofpassengerairlinescanbe

consideredpurposefulmilitaryactionsbuttherearealsotragiccasesofmistakenidentity

(e.g.thedowningofKoreanAirlines007byaSovietSu-15in1September1983orthe

destructionofIranAirFlight655bytheUSSVincenneson3July1988).15

Inconsideringdisputesoverthemeaningofshockeventsweneedtoconsiderat

leastsixsalientfeaturesofsuchincidents.Here,duetospacelimitations,wecanmerely

noteeachbriefly.WeseeevidenceofallsixintelevisioncoverageofMH17.

1.AffectiveImages

Shockeventsare,bydefinition,affectivespectacleswhereimagesplayakeyrolein

triggeringandinducingaffectivecontagion.16Affectivecontagionhasthecapacitytowiden

existingpoliticalcleavages,deepenpoliticalpolarizationandacceleratetheeclipseof

politicsbywar.Televisionnewsprogramsfacechoicesaboutwhattoshowandwhatnotto

showoftheevent.Protocolsandeditorialdecisions,forexample,aboutwhethertoshow

thebodiesofhumanvictimsoftheeventvary.Shockingimagescansoradicalizeviewers

thatevidence-baseddiscussionofeventsnexttoimpossible.Contextandnon-proximate

causalityareeasilyforgotten.Asvisualstorytelling,televisionvideoproductioncanlink

differenteventsacrosstimeandspacethroughmontageediting.Itcanalsoproduce

animatedandvirtualrealityvisualreconstructionsofevents,thuspowerfullyshaping

interpretationandblameattribution.

2.Availability,AnalogyandAssimilation

Shockeventsarerupturesintheeverydayroutinereproductionof‘commonsense’

abouttheworld,dislocationsintheseeminglynaturaldiscursiveorder.Theycaninduce

dissonanceandopeningsingeopoliticalculturesthatwerepreviouslyclosedofffor

discussionanddebate.17Howtheseeventsareanalogizedtoothereventsinthepastand

howhegemonicnarrativesadjusttoaccommodateandrepresentshockeventsare

importantquestionsinanyresearchprojectontheiroperationandimpact.Akey

mechanismhereiswhatsomepsychologiststerm‘availabilitybias,’thepresenceand

supplyofsimilarinstancesfromthepastandtheoperationoffamiliarmodesof

7

representationandnarration.18Theseallowpotentiallyrupturingeventstobeassimilated

backintoprevailingregimesof‘commonsense’ornot.19

3.AuthorityandExpertise

Theroleoffiguresrepresentedasauthoritiesindeterminingthemeaningofshock

eventsisconsiderable.Administrativeandexpertstatus,projectinglegitimacy,iscrucial.In

authoritariansocieties,theleaderofacountryisthechiefstorylinesetter.State-funded

mediatendtofollowtheleadofthecountry’spowercenter.Ifpowercentersarepluraland

themedialessbeholdentothestateorprivateactors,thereislikelytobegreaterscopefor

divergencebetweentheofficialgovernmentnarrativeonshockeventsandmedia

representations.Expertshaveadifferenttypeofauthority,onegroundedintechnical

knowledge,subject-mattermastery,culturalcapitalandapresumptionofobjectivity.

Comportment,dress,titlesandbackgroundimageryconveythistotelevisionviewers.

Whomaredeemedexpertandwhomareenabledtospeakauthoritativelyinthatrolein

public,especiallyontelevision,isaprocessthatisconditionednotonlybyculturaland

socialfactorsbutalsobyeditorialdecision-making.Whoisentrustedtodecideanddirect

whatthepublicseesisshapedbypowerstructureandculturalhabitus.20Whatis

presentedasauthoritativeandobjective,however,maybeviewedbysuspicionbycertain

socio-demographicgroupsforwhom‘mainstreammedia’arepartofaconspiracytohide

‘thetruth.’

4.BlameAttributionandAgnotology

Blameattributioncantakemanyforms.Itcanbeadirectandconcentrated

attributionofaneventtoasingularactor.Butitcanalsobeamuchmoreindirectprocess

whereattributionisnotconcentratedonasingulartargetbutdiffusedamongaseriesof

alternatives.Thefirstformgeneratesaclearstory,orcounter-story(analternative

account),abouttheevent.Inthesecondprocess,however,theeffectistogeneratea

counter-storythatmuddiesattribution.Insteadofclarity,thereisconfusionand

uncertainty.ManydifferentactorsandmeanscouldhavedownedMH17.Thepictureis

unclearandwemayneverknowwhoisresponsibleforwhat.CriticsofRussian

communicationstrategiesarguethatRussia’sgoalisnottocreateself-servingalternative

8

narrativesbuttocreatesufficientconfusionanduncertaintyaboutnarrativesthatblame

Russia.21Thisformofattributiondriftstowardsagnotology,namelythesocialandpolitical

productionofignorance.Usedtodescribecorporatecampaignstodenycausalityand

createconfusion(e.g.ontobaccoandglobalwarming),thisconcepthassimilaritiestowhat

isknownasdisinformation(dezinformatsiia)in(counter)intelligencework.22

5.ConspiracyTheories

Aconspiracytheoryisastyleofinterpretativeheuristicstheexplaineventsand

practicesbyreferencetothemachinationsofpowerfulactorswhoconcealtheirroleto

duperegularpeople.23Thisstyleofreasoningisostensiblypopulistbutiseasily

appropriatedbypowerfulactors.Insocietiescharacterizedbyhighlevelsofdistrustofor

contemptforofficialinstitutions,conspiracytheoriescanbevehiclesforthatdistrustand

discontent.Thedisruptiveimpactoftheinternetontraditionalmedia,andtheriseof

personalizedexpressivesocialmediahascreatedanunregulatedandopen

communicationsecosystemforconspiracytheoriestospreadandflourish.Indeed,

considerableresearchinpsychologysuggeststhathumancognitionprocessesare‘biased’

towardscognitivelymiserlythinking;conspiracytheoriesarethusattractiveandappealing,

especiallyintimesofturmoilandcrisis.

Conspiracytheoriesflourishwhenprofessionalstandardsofjournalismare

compromised,andtrustintraditionalauthorityislow.Politiciansaswellasstateand

oligarchcontrolledmediacanbeconspiracytheorypropagatorsifitservesidentified

interests.24Asawidely-recognizedmodeandstyleofreasoning,conspiracytheoryneedsto

betreatedasacategoryofpracticeratherthanascholarlyconcept.Theframeitselfispart

ofthediscursivestruggleofblameattributionandavoidance.

6.MaterialitiesofShockEvents

Shockevents,asnoted,havetheirownmaterialitiesandcontingenciesasevents.

Catastrophiceventshavestructural,proximateandphysicalcauses,aswellas

multidimensionalmaterialimpactsandruins.Weaponsystemshavephysical

characteristics,materialcapabilitiesandvisualsignatures.Theseposedistinctive

technoscientificchallengestoinvestigatorsandthoseseekingtocontrolthemeaningof

9

theseevents.Inthecourseofinvestigations,certainmaterialobjectsandtracesmaytake

oniconicstatus,andmayactinwaysthatdefythemeaningsbeingimposeduponthemby

thecontestingparties.Bow-tie-shapedfragmentsuniquetotheBuk-M1’s9N314M

warheadmadeitsidentificationpossible:hundredsoffragmentswerelodgedinthebodies

oftheaircraft’spilotandfirstofficer.Asideskirtmarkalongwithapoorlyobscuredunit

designationnumber(32)helpedBellingcatresearchersprovided‘fingerprint’identification

ofthepreciseBukvehiclethatshotdownMH17.Researchneedstobesensitivetothe

challengesofthetechnoscientificprocessofidentifyingandmeasuringthematerialitiesof

shockevents,fromtheforensicsofcrashinvestigationtotherecoveryandpainstaking

identificationofhumanremains.25

II.TELEVISIONNEWSFRAMES&BLAMEATTRIBUTION

MH17wasaglobalmediaeventthatwasfrontpagenewsworldwideintheweek

thatfollowed.Weprovideanillustrationofthenarrativeframingthatdevelopedinthefirst

weekoftheeventbycontrastingtheMH17coveragebythetwomostpopularchannelsin

RussiaandUkraine.Accordingtotelevisionratingsfor2014,PerviyKanal(FirstChannel)

inRussiaandInterinUkrainewerethemostwatchedchannelsineachcountry.26Neither

channelisfreeofcontroversyoraccusationsofbias.TheRussiangovernmentcontrolsthe

boardofdirectorsofPerviyKanalandthestationiswidelyseenasavehicleforthe

communicationsagendaoftheKremlin.PerviyKanalisthesuccessortoRussianPublic

Television,andmorebroadlytowell-knownSoviettelevisionprograms,mostnotably

CentralTelevision’sauthoritativeeveningnewsprogramVremya(Time),firstbroadcastin

1968.27

ThecontroversialUkrainianoligarchDmytroFirtashhasacontrollingstakeinInter

television.28WhileitpresentsaUkrainianperspective,Ukrainianlanguageactivists

consideritinsufficientlyUkrainianbecauseofitsrelianceonRussianlanguage

programming(itsnewsprogramsarealsoinRussian).InSeptember2016theofficesofthe

stationwerefirebombedandsubsequentblockadedbyUkrainianmilitiaactivists.They

accuseditofpursuinga“pro-Russia”agenda.29

Weconcentratedontheeveningnewsbroadcastsofeachchannel,availableinan

archiveofbroadcastsoneachchannel’swebsite.Wehavedividedtheweekofbroadcasts

10

intotwocategories,thefirst100hoursoftheevent(fourdays)whicharedominatedbythe

materialityofthecrashanditsvictims,andthesecondhalfoftheweekwhichfeaturedthe

presentationofanofficialRussiancounter-storyataMoscowpressconferenceon21July.

AweekafterthecrashtworivalstorylinesonMH17werewellestablishedwithinRussian

andUkrainiangeopoliticalcultures.MH17isacentrallycontestedeventwithintheUkraine

crisis,anobjectofintensiveinformationwaronmultiplemediaplatforms.30Thispaperis

nomorethananintroductiontotheopeningroundsofthatwaranditeffectsinvarious

locations.

TheFirst100Hours:PerviyKanal’sVremya.

MH17’slastcontactwithairtrafficcontrol13:19:56UTC.31Radarimagesshowthe

aircraftrapidlylosingaltitudeat16:20localtimeinUkraine(17:20Moscowtime).Newsof

thecrashwasfirstreportedintwobriefsegmentsonPerviyKanal’s19:00hourprogram

VechernieNovosti(EveningNews).32The21:00televisionnewsprogramVremyaonPerviy

KanalwasthefirstwithsustainedcoverageofMH17.Thebroadcastbeganwithdistant

localamateurvideoandphotographsofthewreckage.33CorrespondentAlexandr

Evstigneev,reportingbyphone,presentedanon-the-groundaccountofwhathappened

accordingtolocalseparatists.TheyclaimedthataUkrainianSu-25fighterjetshotdown

thepassengeraircraftandthattheysubsequentlyshottheSU-25down.34Anewsanalysis

segmentimmediatelyafterbyMaximSeminpresentedaseriesof“facts”forinterpreting

theevent.35Inahomeofficeinterview,OlegSmirnov,headofcivilaviationcommissionat

theRussianFederalServiceforSupervisionintheSphereofTransport(Rostransnadzor)in

theMinistryofTransport,declaredthattherebelsineasternUkraineonlyhavemobile

shoulder-heldground-to-airmissiles(so-calledMANPADSwhichareeffectiveupto5,000

meters).Heclaimedtheydonothaveweaponsystemscapableofdestroyingapassenger

jetathigheraltitudes.SeminthencitedanITAR-TASSreportthattheUkrainianmilitary

movedSovietproduced“Buk”anti-aircraftmissilesystemsintotheDonetskregionpriorto

thedowning.Further,Russia’sMinistryofDefenseindicatedthatnoRussianwarplanes

wereflyingneartheborderofUkraine.Semin’sreportremindedviewersthatthe

UkrainianmilitaryshotdownaRussianTu-154airlinerinOctober2001,withthelossofall

78livesonboard.Ukraineinitiallydenieditsmilitarywasresponsible.Footageofformer

11

PresidentKuchmafrom2001reactingtotheaccidentaswellasvideoofthewreckageand

subsequentinvestigationaccompaniedSemin'scommentary.Despiteinitialdenials,Semin

explained,theUkrainianauthoritieswerelaterforcedtoadmitthattheirmissilehad

indeeddestroyedtheplane,andthattheywereatfault.Thefirstclose-upvideofootageofa

wreckagesite,featuringstillsmolderingfires,wreckage,humanbodypartsandscattered

personaleffects,wasshownthereafter.

TheinformationindirectlyinferringthatUkrainewasresponsibleforthedowning

ofMH17wasrepeatedbyothercorrespondentsandexpertsoverthesubsequenthours

anddays.FurtherclaimsaboutthepoortrainingandexpertiseofUkrainianmilitarywere

made.36Tothisindictmentusingselectiveandmisleadingfactswasaddedaspeculative

conspiracytheory.37Overfootageofthesmolderingremainsoftheaircraft,thepresenter

announcedthatthepresidentialairplaneoftheRussianpresidentVladimirPutin,not

MH17,mayhavebeenthe“realtarget”.CitinganInterfaxsourceintheRussianFederal

TransportationAgency,thebroadcastdeclaredthatbothplanescrossedflightpathsnear

Warsaw,hadsimilarcontoursandcoloring,and,fromaremotedistance,werevirtually

identical,accordingtoInterfax.

Thefollowingnight’sbroadcastfeaturedsomeon-the-groundeyewitnessstoriesas

wellasinterviewswithlocalseparatistswhoclaimedthataUkrainejethaddownedthe

aircraft.38ItalsoreportedonthestatementbyRussianPresidentPutinwhich,after

expressinghiscondolencestothevictims,notedthat“thistragedywouldnothave

occurrediftherewerepeaceinthatcountry[Ukraine],orinanycase,ifhostilitieshadnot

resumedinsoutheastUkraine.”PutinthendirectlyallocatedblametoUkrainebyvirtueof

thelocationoftheaccident:“Andcertainly,thegovernmentoverwhoseterritoryit

occurredisresponsibleforthisterribletragedy.”39Arangeofexpertsappearedonthe

eveningnewsshowanddetailedthreateningstatements,militarydeploymentsand

possibleexplanations(poortraining,confusion,agingmissilestocks)forwhyUkraineshot

downMH17.40ThebroadcastalsoamplifiedtheblameattributionmadebyRussia’s

AmbassadorVitalyChurkinbeforetheUnitedNationsSecurityCouncil.41Asectionof

Churkin’sspeechfeaturedhimrhetoricallyaskingwhyUkrainianairtrafficcontrollers

directedtheaircraftintoawarzone.Hedeclaredthat“ensuringthesecurityofcivilian

aviationinaState’sairspaceisthatState’sresponsibility.TheStateoverwhoseterritorya

12

flightisplannedmustprovidetheinformationnecessarytoensurethesafetyofaviation.”

Inasectionnotshownhealsocomplainedaboutartilleryandmortarshellingbythe

UkrainianmilitaryintoRussia:“Weconsiderthoseprovocationsactsofaggressiononthe

partofUkraineagainstRussiancitizensandagainstitssovereignterritory.Weplaceall

blameontheKyivauthoritiesandcallfortheUkrainiansidetotakedecisivemeasuresto

preventsuchincidentsinfuture.”42

ThebroadcastofsectionsofstatementsmadebyRussiangovernmentofficialswas

featuredalongsideaseriesofbackgroundreportsthatsoughttocontextualizetheevent.In

aneight-minutevideosegmentcorrespondentPavelPchelkinaskedwhobenefitsfromthe

crashofMH17.43Thesegmentisamontageofconspiracytheorizingthatbeginsfromthe

premisethatthereisanefariouspurposebehindthedowningoftheaircraft:“Whilethe

perpetratorsofthetragedyarenotyetknown,andtheinvestigationhasnotyetbegun,

seeminglyunrelatedeventsindifferentpartsoftheworldinthepastandthepresentare

liningupinapicturethatcanexplainmuch.”44Thedowning“happenedjustastheEU

summitbeganinBrusselstodecidethefateofsanctionsagainstRussia.Andsuddenlya

planeofMalaysianairlinescrashesnearDonetsk.Thesmokecomingoutofthecrashed

airplanehadnotyetdieddownwhenPresidentPoroshenkoconfidentlystated:thisisa

terroristact.”ThesegmentfeaturesexcerptsfromaninterviewwithMikhailDelyagin,

directoroftheInstitutefortheProblemsofGlobalization.Hedeclared:

It'sclearthatthisisagreatwaytoblameeverythingontherebelmilitia.Theyshot

downpassengerairplaneatanaltitudeof6.5kilometers.That'sgreat.Itmeansyou

[therebels]havethistechnology[Buk],andnowwe'llblameallonyou,andatthe

sametime,onRussia.Therefore,Ithink,itisapureprovocationbytheUkrainian

Nazijunta.ButtherealmastermindsareAmericans,because,I’msorry,but

Poroshenko,orKolomoiskyaren’tcleverenoughforthis.45

BeforetheEUsummit,itisalleged,themajorityofEUstateswereagainsttougheconomic

sanctions,especiallyintheenergysector,sincethesewerepainfulforEurope.TheUnited

States,however,soughttobreakapartEuropefromRussianenergysupplies.Mere

symbolicsanctionsagainstRussiadidnotserve“theplansoftheAmericanstrategists,who

arebehindalltheactionsofKievaftertheFebruarycoup.”Thus,asanotherfeaturedexpert

13

(KonstantinSimonovDirectorGeneraloftheNationalEnergySecurityFoundation)

explained:

Itiscertainthat,whathappenedinUkraineisanattempttoseparateRussiafrom

Europe.Infact,theU.S.planistopreventaunionbetweenEuropeandRussia,and

instead,makeEuropedependexclusivelyontheUnitedStates.Theenergysectoris

themostimportantpartofourrelationswithEurope.Ifthislinkiscut,thenof

course,wewillhavedifficultiesinotherdirectionsaswell.46

Thisrupturehadnothappened,however,whilerebelforceswereprovingdifficultforKiev

toeliminate.StrategistsinKievandWashington,thus,“urgentlyneededapropaganda

breakthroughthatcouldradicallychangethesituation.”ThedowningofMH17,however

accordingtoSimonov,allowedtheAmericanstosaytotheEuropeansthatRussiawasa

terriblecountryandthattheDonetskRepublicwaslikeabranchoftheevilempire.The

narratorPchelkinexplained:“Thefurtherthestorydevelops,themoretheexpertssuspect

thatthespecialservicesarebehindthetragedy,andclearlynottheUkrainianspecial

services.Thisisthesignatureofaslightlydifferentcountry.It'sanAmericansignature.”

ThisclaimwasthenconsolidatedbyavideomontageofCubanmissilecrisisimagesand

documentquotationwhichsuggestedthattheUSsoughttocreateaverysimilar

catastropheasapretexttoinvadeCuba.ThatPutinwasreturningfromaBRICSsummit

thatverydaywasseenassignificant.AccordingtoPchelkin,theirrefusaltousethedollar

asareservecurrencywasacatastropheforthatcurrency.Washington,Pchelkinconcluded,

cannotacceptRussia’sgrowingroleintheworld,itsenergydealswithIraqiKurdistanand

Argentina.Russiawasnowaseriousglobalplayerand“alltheevidencesuggeststhat

WashingtonisreadyforthemostradicalmeasurestodiscreditRussia.”

ThisconspiratorialmodeofreasoningwasafeatureofsimilarreportsonPerviy

Kanalinthedaysfollowingthedisaster.TheUkrainiangovernmentwascondemnedforits

desiretoimmediatelypronounceseparatistrebelsguiltyofthedowning.DeputyDefense

MinisterAnatolyAntonovstressedthat“politicalattemptstoplayonthetragedy,to

immediatelyidentifytheperpetrators”wereincorrect.47Helistedtenquestionsthatthe

Ukrainianmilitaryhadtoanswer,questionsthatinsinuatedthatthegovernmentinKiev

washidinginformationtoserveitsinterests.Alongvideoreport(12:43)on20Julyasked

viewersthe‘whobenefits?’questionagain(implicitlycueingconspiratorialreasoning),

14

witheyewitnesstestimonyandvideoframedbytheassertionthatexpertsweresureitwas

apremeditatedprovocationbecauseUkraineneededtodiscredittherebels.48Itwas“no

coincidence”thatPoroshenkosubsequentlycalledontheworldtoconsidertheDonetsk

andLuhanskrepublicsasterroristorganizations.Thereportreviewedclaimsmadeby

Ukraineabouttheincidentandpresentedargumentsthat(supposedly)refutedthese

claims:releasedrebelrecordingsclaimingMH17weredoctoredvoicefiles;formerminers

andnowrebelswereincapableofoperatingsuchadvancedweaponsastheBuk;neithera

BuksystemnoranyotherRussianmilitaryequipmentcrossedthestateborderinto

Ukraine,accordingtoastatementbytheRussianDefenseMinistry.Thisreportfeatureda

cut-outstyleanimationofajetbeingtracked(vectorwavegraphics)andthenattacked(red

dotvectorgraphics)bytwoUkrainianBukweaponsystems.Vremyaviewers,inother

words,wereshownUkrainianmissilesdestroyingMH17.49

Inanotherlongvideosegment(8:22)thatsamenightentitled“ConspiracyTheory–

whotriestousethepainofothersfortheirownpurposes”correspondentPavelKrasnov

arguedKiev’squickjudgementontheMH17disasterand“confidenttoneleadsto

suspicion.”50"Thisindicatesthattheyshotitdownandastheyrealizedthattheyshotit

down,nowtheyaretryingtogetoutofthissituationquickly,"explainedatestpilot(Ruben

Yesayan)interviewedforthesegment.Re-usingvideoclipsofinterviewswithSimonovand

Delyagin,Krasnovexplainedthat“thescriptofthisgamewaswrittenalongtimeago,and

accordingtoit,RussiawasobligedtogetinvolvedintheUkrainianconflict,givingtheWest

anexcusetoshowheraredcard.”InUSpolitics“theyknowalltoowellhowtoorganize

provocationswiththebenefitforthemselves.”ColinPowell’s“whitepowdertube”forgery

attheUnitedNations(justifyingUSinterventioninIraq),theGulfofTonkinincident,the

efforttoblameCubaforattackingapassengerairline,eventhelatenineteenthcentury

blamingofanexplosionontheUSshipMaineontheSpanish:allareexamplesofUS

provocationstolaunchwars."116yearsago,theAmericansbegantheirexpansionintothe

worldwithprovocation,killed250oftheircitizensandfoughtunderthecallof“Remember

theMaine,"explainedDelyagin.TheWestrememberstheshootingdownoftheSouth

KoreanBoeingin1983butnottheUkrainiansshootingdowntheSiberiaAirjetin2001.

Now“thecatastrophehasrepeated,andUkraine,apparently,willagaindenyits

involvement,evenifthereisundeniableevidence.”

15

Inthesereportsweseeexamplesofthesixthemesidentifiedabove.Theshockof

MH17isquicklyassimilatedintopre-existingblamenarrativesthroughaseriesof

strategies.CapacityandintentareprojectedontoUkraine.The2001analogypointsto

Ukrainianculpability.Aseriesof“experts”present“facts”thatsteerblameawayfrom

RussiaandtheDonbasseparatists.Ananti-Americanbias,longstandingfromSoviettimes,

ismobilizedasavailableheuristictolocateMH17withinarichhistoryofUSforeignpolicy

provocationandperfidy.ThesestrategiesreinforcethegeneralRussiangovernmentlineon

theUkrainianconflict:itisallthefaultofUkrainiannationalistsandtheirAmericanbackers.

TheFirst100Hours:Inter’sPodrobnosti

Interhasanhour-longeveningnewsprogramcalledPodrobnosti(Details)at20:00.

Itsbroadcastof17Julybeganwithphonereportsfromcorrespondents.51Theinitialvisual

signatureofthedowningwasanamateureyewitnessvideoofaplumeofblacksmokein

thedistance.ThebroadcastnotedGirkin’ssocialmediaboastofdowninganAn-26andalso

citedsocialmediapostsbyresidentsoftheTorezareanotingthemovementofmilitary

vehicles,includingaBukmissilesystem,throughthearea.52Anaviationexpert(Sergey

Plotnitsky)intervieweddeclaredthataBuksystemcouldhavebroughtdowntheaircraft

ascouldhaveanair-to-airmissile.LaterinthebroadcasttheprogramreportedPresident

Poroshenko’sstatementataUkrainianNationalSecurityCouncilmeeting:"Thisisnotan

accident,notacatastrophe,butanactofterrorism."Attheendofthebroadcast,the

programdisplayedasocialmediaphotographofaBukmovingthroughwhatitidentifiedas

thetownofSnezhnoe.Theanchordeclaredthat,accordingtotheUStelevisionstationCNN,

WashingtonhadirrefutableevidencethatthemissilethatshotdowntheBoeingwasfired

fromtheterritoryofRussianFederation.

Thefollowingnight’sbroadcastfeaturedconsiderablevisualfootageofthe

wreckageoftheairplane,andofgrievingrelativesintheNetherlandsandelsewhere.53

Humanbodypartswereblurredinthefootagebutthisblurringandthescatteredpersonal

effectsofthevictimswerevisualsignaturesofthelossoflifeinvolved.Someofthefootage

wasshowninsilence.ThebroadcastfocusedonaudiorecordingreleasedbytheUkrainian

SecretService(SBU)ofrebelleaders,describedas“terrorists”inallbroadcasts,discussing

thetransferoftheBuk.Itfeaturedashortsegmenton“absurdRussianpropaganda,”the

16

attempttofakeasocialmediaentrybyoneofthepassengersconfirmingthatUkrainian

fightersarenexttotheBoeing.54Reportsfromvariousworldcapitalshighlightedthe

internationalreactionamongstpoliticianstothetragedy.Inter’scorrespondentin

AmsterdamnotedtheresignationofaUSjournalistSarahFirthfromRT(theKremlin’s

Englishlanguagebroadcaster)inprotestagainsteditorialdirectionsonhowtocoverMH17

(“thetruthismoreimportant”).InareportonGermanChancellorAngelaMerkel,the

correspondentwasopenlycriticalofherconciliatorypolicytowardsRussia.55Areport

fromWashingtonhighlightedthecondemnationoftherebelgroupsbyUNSCambassadors

fromFranceandtheUnitedStates.56AreportfromMoscowbeganwiththeanchorasking

Inter’sMoscowcorrespondentDmitryElovskyif“allRussiansbelievetheofficial

propaganda?”ThereportfilmedMoscovitesplacingflowersattheDutchEmbassyto

expresstheirhorrorattheeventandsympathiesforthedead.AmongthemwasPutin-

criticandhistorianAndreiZubovwhoexpressedgreatembarrassmentatwhatwas

happeninginUkraine.AnotherfigureinterviewedwastheRussianwriterViktor

ShenderovichwhocommentedonhowtheMH17tragedyhad“spawnedmonstrousand

senselesslies.Russiacontinuestobeinatailspin,indenialofreality.”57

Subsequenteveningbroadcastschronicledtheconsiderableinternational

condemnationofVladimirPutinintheEuropeanandUSpress.TheLondoncorrespondent

showedthebluntheadlinesintheBritishtabloidpressaboutthetragedy,suchastheDaily

Mail’sheadline“PutinKilledMySon.”AreporthighlightedtheRussianpropagandaeffort

todivertblameforthetragedyontoUkraineeventotheextentofchangingtheresponsible

partyfromself-proclaimedDonetskPeople’sRepublic“terrorist”tothe“Ukrainianmilitary”

ontheevent’sWikipediawebpage.Correspondentsnotedthestrongstatementsof

condemnationfromvariousprominentpoliticians(newBritishDefenseMinisterMichael

Fallon,USSenatorJohnMcCain).Reportschronicledtheallegedeffortofrebelleadersto

collecttheplane’sblackboxestogivethemtoMoscownottheOSCE.Accusationsthat

rebelswererestrictingaccesstothecrashsiteandmanipulatingevidencewerealso

broadcast.

Russia’sPublicRelationsOffensiveonMH17

17

On21JulytheRussianMinistryofDefenseheldapressconferenceonMH17forthe

internationalmediainitsnewoperationstheater.Thereweretwopresentationsatthe

pressconference.ThefirstwasbytheheadoftheMainOperationsDirectorateofthe

RussianArmedForcesGeneralStaffAndreiKartapolov.58Hispresentationwasan

elaborationonthealreadyexistinginformationstrategyoftheRussianmilitaryonMH17,

namelytopresentso-calledobjectivedataandtoposeinterrogatingquestionsofthe

Ukrainianmilitary,inferringitsguiltintheprocess.Ukraine,heasserted,hadthreeorfour

airdefensebattalions,equippedwithBuksurface-to-airmissilesystems,intheareaonthe

dayofthecrash.“Whatwasthepurposeofdeployingsuchalargesetofairdefense

systemsnearDonetsk?”KartapolovpresentedaseriesofimagesthatinferredthatUkraine

wastheresponsiblefordowningMH17.OnewasanimageofMH17withintherangeofthe

nearbyUkrainianBuksystems.Anotherwasacollectionofblackandwhitesatellitephotos

showingUkrainianairdefensesystemsandabatteryofBukmissilesinthevicinity.The

finaltwoimagesshowthesamelocationwiththeBukmissilesdeployedonthedayofthe

crash,andthenanemptyfieldsomedayslater.AchartofUkrainianradaractivitydesigned

toshowitsintensityon17Julywasalsopresented.Allofthis‘circumstantialevidence’was

designedtobolstertheclaim,whichKartapolovdoesnotstatedirectly,thataUkrainian

Buksurface-to-airmissileshotdownMH17.

KartapolovthenbuiltasimilarcircumstantialcaseforasecondtheoryofUkrainian

guilt,namelythatMH17wasdownedbyaUkrainianSu-25jet.HestatedRussia’s

monitoringsystemregisteredthepresenceofaUkrainianjet,“probablyaSu-25,climbing

andapproachingtheMalaysianpassengeraircraft.”Kartapolovaskedrhetorically:“What

wasamilitaryaircraftdoingonarouteintendedforcivilianplanes?”Tocorroboratethis

inferenceofUkrainianguiltKartapolovturnedthepresentationovertotheheadofthe

MainStaffoftheRussianAirForceLt.Gen.IgorMakushevwhopresentedafour-minute

flightmonitoringvideotakenbytheRussianairtrafficcontrolcenterinRostov.Thevideo

showedMH17descentbutalsoanew“airborneobject”thatappearsatthespotofthe

aircraft’sdestruction(thisishighlightedwithacursorintheunfoldingvideoimages).Air

trafficcontrolrequestedinformationontheobjectbutwasunabletogetanyreadingonits

parameters,“mostlikelyduetothefactthattheaircraftwasnotequippedwithasecondary

radartransponderwhichistypicalofmilitaryaircraft.”Makushevthenexplainedthatthis

18

aircraftsubsequentlyhoveredovertheMH17crashsite(this,inactuality,wasawidely-

scatteredseriesofsites).Ukraineclaimednoneofitsmilitaryaircraftwereinthatareaat

thetimeofthecrash.“Asyoucansee,”Makushevconcluded,“thatisnottrue.”

KartapolovendedthepressconferencebychallengingtheUStoreleasethedatait

claimedprovesthattherebelsshotdownMH17.“Theinformationwehavepresentedhere

isbasedonreliableandobjectivedatafromvarioustechnicalsystems.Thesamecannotbe

saidfortheunsubstantiatedaccusationsagainstRussia.”Russia,hestateddefinitively,“has

neverprovidedthemilitiawithBuksurface-to-airmissiles.”

ThepressconferencewascoveredextensivelyonVremyathatnightandsubsequent

nights.AninitialvideosegmentweavedtogetherthetechnospeakoftheMinistryof

Defenseofficialswithagroundlevelwitness(Tatyana)whoassertedshesawtwoplanes

thatday.“Therewerethreeexplosions,threeclaps.Wethoughttheyarebombingus.Then

oneplanefell,burned,andthesecondwenttotheside,toDnepropetrovsk."59One

interviewedexpert,SergeyGrinyaev,GeneralDirectoroftheCenterofStrategicStudiesand

Forecasts,speculativelyblendedthetwotheoriesinferringUkraine’sguiltintoone.The

MalaysianplanewasshadowedbyfighterjetsandaftertheBuksystemhadunsuccessfully

firedatit,“thefighterjetsdestroyedthealreadydamagedplanesothatthescriptwouldgo

accordingtotheoriginalplan.”Inafollow-upsegmentthenextevening,thepress

conferencewasdescribedasproviding“clear”and“irrefutableevidence”linkingUkraineto

theMH17tragedy.60VariousexpertsexplainedthatUkraine’snon-closureoftheairspace

indicatedtheyknewtheseparatistsdidnothaveanyBuksystems,thatitispossibleto

disguisealaunchsite(Ukrainecouldthenblametherebelsforthemissiletheylaunched),

andthateitherofthetwoRussiantheoriesofthedowningwerestrongpossibilities.A

sevenminuteplusvideosegmentbycorrespondentMikhailAkinchenkoconcluded:

“Summarizingallthefacts,someexpertsbelievethattheMalaysianplanewassentenced.

Militaryaircraftintheairand"Buk"onthegroundonlyduplicatedeachother.”Yet

juxtaposedtothisblameallocationbyexpertswasadeclarationofnon-judgement:“Sofar,

onecanonlyspeculateaboutthedetailsofthetragedy,soit'stooearlytodraw

unambiguousconclusions.”61

TheRussianMinistryofDefensepressconferencewasignoredonInter’s

Podrobnostion21July.Yet,strangely,manysalientimagesfromthepressconference

19

appearedfor42secondsasbackgroundtoastandupreportbytheMoscowcorrespondent

(DmitryElovsky)onPutin’smidnightaddressthenightbefore.62Thebroadcastwas

dominatedbyinternationalreactiontotheMH17tragedy.TheBerlincorrespondent’s

reportwasonGermannewspaperreportingonthepossibilityofsanctions.63International

correspondentsreportedstatementsbyPresidentObamawhodeclaredthatitwastimefor

RussiatotakeresponsibilityforthetragedyandbyBritishPrimeMinisterCameronthat

“thewholeworldiswatchingPutin.”64

Thefollowingevening(22July)ashortsegment(1:34)onPodrobnostibriefly

addressedoneRussiantheoryaboutMH17.65Inittheprogramanchordeclaredthateven

RussianexpertsrejectedtheKremlin’sversionoftheaircraft’sdestruction.Theevidence

wasaninterviewcliptakenfromRBCTV(Russia’sonly24hourbusinesschannel)inwhich

anaviationexpert(VadimLukashevich)pronouncedtheclaimthataSu-25couldshoot

downaplaneatanaltitudeof11,000metersasnotserious.66Likethe“generalswithmany

stars”duringtheSovietUnionjustifyingthedowningofKoreanAir007in1983,

Lukashevichdeclaredthat“theyhavetheirexplanationsbutthetruthwilleventuallycome

out.”TheanchorthenreportedthatRussianpilot-heroSergeyNefedov(picturedwitha

medal)termedtheDefenseMinistry’sversioncompletenonsensedesignedforinternal

Russianconsumptiononly.67Inthisway,Russian“experts”wereusedtorefuteRussia’s

MH17storyline.

SubsequentPodrobnostireportsonthefollowingeveningschronicledthematerial

efforttoremovehumanremainsfromthecrashsiteaswellasinternationaldiplomacyat

theUnitedNationsandelsewhere.68AnaudiorecordinginwhichVostokbattalionleader

AlexanderKhodakovskyadmitedthatseparatistsreceivedandreturnedaBukmissile

systemwasthesubjectofabriefvideosegmentaweekafterthecrash.69Nofeature

segment,however,directlydeconstructedthetwoRussiantheoriesonMH17.Thesewere

ignoredordismissedaspropagandaandlies.InsteadthestatementsofWesternleaders,

andtheWesternpress,wereusedtoaffirmandamplifytheUkrainiangovernment’s

position.70

Table1summarizesthedifferentblameallocationnarrativespresentedbyPerviy

KanalandInterintheweekfollowingtheMH17tragedy.Inthesenewsreportswecan

tracehowtheeventanditsimagescometobeenvelopedbyanalogiesandstorylinesthat

20

PerviyKanal Inter

WhoseistoBlame? Ukrainianmilitaryforces RussiangovernmentPro-Russianseparatists

InitialSalientFacts RebelsonlyhaveMANPADS.UkrainemovedBUKtoarea.Russianjetsnotflyinginarea.

Girkin’ssocialmediaposting,subsequentlydeleted.

InitialPrivilegedSourceontheEvent

RebelsourcesindicatingUkrainianSu-25shotitdown.

CNNreportingphotographofBUKinrebelarea.

InitialConspiracyTheory

RealtargetPutin’splane

AnalogousEvent AccidentaldowningofaTu-154inOctober2001

SovietAirForcedowningofKoreanAirin1983

RussianMoDTheory EitherSU-25shotitdownorUkrainiancontrolledBUK.

‘Russianpropaganda’

ControllingForce UnitedStates Putin;theKremlin

GeopoliticalMeaning USwantstoblockRussia’sgrowthandpowerininternationalaffairs.

RussiawantstoruinUkraine

Table1;ContrastsinblameallocationaccordingtoPerviyKanalandInter

assimilateditintopre-existingcommonsense.OnRussiantelevisionMH17isanother

exampleofUkrainetryingtoshirkitsinternationalresponsibility(likewithSiberiaAirlines

inOctober2001).Politicalauthorityfiguresandchosentelevision“experts”suggestthat

theUnitedStateswasbehindevents,usingprovocationstofurtheritsgeopoliticalinterests.

ConspiracyandagnotologygotogetherintheMinistryofDefensepressconference.To

IntertheMH17downingwasanotherexampleofitsvictimizationatthehandsofRussia

anditsterroristproxiesintheDonbas.BothWesternandRussianauthorityfiguresand

“experts”attesttotheirculpability.ThematerialityoftheMH17downing–videofootage,

socialmediaimages,blackboxes,destroyedfuselage,deadbodies,secretrecordingsand

variousinvestigations–hasextendeditslifeasaneventintothepresentday.Itremainsan

ongoingsubjectofcontestationbetweenRussia,Ukraineandtheinternationalcommunity.

III.PUBLICOPINIONATTITUDESONWHATHAPPENEDTOMH17

GiventhefactthatUkrainianandRussiantelevisionconsistentlybroadcast

powerfullydivergentstorylinesonwhatcausedthedowningofMH17throughout2014,it

21

isworthexaminingwhatimpactthis‘informationwar’hadontheattitudesofordinary

residentsinpartsofUkraine,Crimeaanddefactostateterritoriesdirectlysupportedbythe

Russianstate.Howimportantweretelevisionviewinghabitsinshapinghowpeople

explainedwhyMH17crashed?Whatroledidsocio-demographicfactors,likenationality,

education,genderandincome,orotherfactorslikepoliticalorientation,politicaltrustand

locationhaveinshapepeople’sunderstandingofMH17?

InthelastweeksofJuly2014,theindependentRussianpollingagencyLevada

CenteraskedrespondentsinthesixlargestRussiancitiesaboutMH17.Thepollingfirm

methodologyfollowedtheirusualrandomsamplingstrategybutmorethanoneresponse

couldbegiventothequestion(thoughonlyasmallnumberofintervieweeschosethis

option).Levadaasked:"HaveyouheardabouttheJuly17crashoftheMalaysianplanein

theskyoverUkraineand,ifso,why,inyouropinion,didthisplanecrashoccur?”71Note

thatthewordphrasingisnotadirectquestionaboutwhoistoblame.Insteaditposeda

questionaboutcausalitythatmayormaynotinvolvetheallocationofblametoparticular

actors.Thatmostresponsestranslateintoblamingparticularactorsisitselfanimportant

finding.Morethan4in5respondentsexplainedthecrashbyblamingtheUkrainian

military(46%toananti-aircraftmissileoftheUkrainianarmyand36%toaUkrainianair

forceplane).OnlysmallnumbersattributedittotheDonbasmilitia(3%),aterroristattack

(2%),anaccidentonboard(1%),piloterror(1%),andtheRussianmilitary(1%).Other

diverseexplanationswereprovidedby6%ofthesamplewhile16%indicatedthatthey

couldnotgiveareasonforthelossoftheplane.72DenisVolkovofLevadaCenternotedthat

94%ofRussiansgettheirnewsfromtelevisionandthatthishascreatedadifferentreality

where"therearedifferenttheories,differenthistory,differentimages,whichequatethe

Ukrainianforceswithfascists."73TheseLevadaratiosaredisplayedinFigure1for

comparisontoourresultsfortheother5sites.74

22

Figure 1: Proportional responses to questions about the shooting down of MH-17 in the sample sites (December 2014) and in major Russian cities (July 2014) by major nationalities. The question was framed as a closed one in December while the July survey by Levada center (Moscow) in Russia offered respondents an open option. The December survey used the answers from the July survey as prompts.

FivemonthsaftertheLevadapoll,weaskedthesamequestiononMH17infiveother

regions-insixoblastsofSoutheasternUkraine(hereafterSE6),inCrimeaandinthethree

Russian-backed'defacto'statesofAbkhazia,SouthOssetiaandTransnistria.Thequestion

wasoneofabout125questionsaskedinawide-rangingstudyoftheimpactoftheMaidan

protests,theCrimeanannexationandtheDonbaswar.Asuiteofsocio-demographicand

ideologicalquestionsenablescrosstabulationoftheanswers.75TheMH17explanation

questionallowsustoprobetherelativeimpactoftelevisionhabitsoncausalattribution

whileatthesametimeconsideringtheeffectsofsocio-demographicandideological

predictivefactors.Mostimportantly,thesimultaneousadministrationofthesamesurvey

questionnairesinthefivesitesinlateDecember2014allowsustoestimatethedifferential

effectsoftelevisionstationaccess,post-Sovietexperiencesandlocalcontextualpolitics.

TheMH17catastrophewasacatalyzingeventinwideningthedivergencesbetweenthe

23

post-MaidanUkrainiangovernmentanditsWesternsupporters,ononeside,andthePutin

governmentanditsattendantregimesinCrimeaandthedefactorepublics,ontheother.

TheEurasiandefactostatesaretheproductsofseparatistwarsoftheearly1990s

entangledwiththecollapseofSovietpower.Inthepost-Sovietindependentstatesof

GeorgiaandMoldova,anti-governmentforcesinthesmallautonomousregionsofAbkhazia,

SouthOssetiaandTransnistriaeventuallyprevailedwiththebackingofRussia.(Wedonot

considerNagornyKarabakhhere).RussiahasrecognizedAbkhaziaandSouthOssetiaas

independentstateswhilepublicopinioninTransnistriaisfavorabletowardsannexationto

Russia.Inallthreedefactostates,thevastmajorityofresidentswantRussiantroop

currentlystationedtheretoremainpermanentlyoruntilthesituation'stabilizes.'76All

threearestronglydependentonRussiaforeconomicaidanddirectsubsidiesoftheirstate

functions.

SurveyDesignandPredictors

WesurveycontestedregionsthatincludeRussian-supporteddefactostates,the

annexedCrimeanrepublicandtheUkrainianterritoryadjacenttotheactivewarzone

oblastsintheDonbas.Thetimingofthesurveywascrucialaseventsonthegroundwere

shiftingquicklyanddiplomaticnegotiationswereunderwayregardingaceasefireforthe

warintheDonbas.Thistimingrequirementmeantthatthesurveybeconductedatthe

sametimeinallsitesaspotentiallynewshockeventscouldleadtodifferentresponsesif

thesurveywasdelayedinoneormoreregions.Thesimultaneoussurveywasmanagedby

KIIS(KyivInternationalInstituteofSociology)forSE6UkraineandbytheLevadaCenter

(Moscow)forCrimea,Abkhazia,SouthOssetiaandTransnistria.Coordinationbetweenthe

twopollingcompaniesandsharingofthequestionnairewhilefollowingthewell-designed

samplingproceduresallowedthecompletionofthesurveysinthelasttwoweeksof

December2014.RespondentsinSE6UkrainewereofferedachoiceofeitherUkrainianor

RussianandelsewherewereinRussian.Allinterviewswerein-person,door-stepformat

bylocalinterviewers,andfollowedstandardinterviewethicalprotocols(explanationofthe

research,anonymizedresponses,rightofrefusal,etc).Thetotalnumberofrespondents

was4833(SE6Ukraine2033,Abkhazia800,TranistriaandCrimea750each,andSouth

Ossetia500)withtheresponseratevaryingfrom41%inSE6Ukrainetojustover75%in

24

Crimea.Withanaveragetimeofcompletionof52minutes,thesurveycontained127

individualquestionsorganizedintothreesections:demography(29questions),a

geo/politicssection(80questions),andregionspecificsection(about8questions).The

marginsoferrorintherespectivesamplesrangefrom2.5%to4.5%.

Ourselectionofpredictorswasbasedonfourexpectationsofhowrespondents

wouldanswerthequestionabouttheMH17crash.Ourgeneralapproachasindicatedby

theemphasisontherespectiveTVbroadcastsistounderstandhowtelevisionhabits

influenceblameattributionbyrespondents.Tohighlightthisfactor,weneedtocontrolfor

otherpossibleexplanations,whichareincludedaspredictorsinthemodelthoughwedo

notgivethemsubstantiveattention.First,weconsideredsocio-demographicbackgrounds

andincluded8predictorsinthemodelfromthiscategory.Self-definednationalityas

RussianandUkrainianwerebothincludedsincethesetwogroupsaremostdirectly

involvedintheprivateandpublicdiscussionaboutthefateofMH17.Weexpect

educationalstatustoberelatedtointerestinandinformationabouttheeventsowe

includedbothloweducationalstatus(lessthanhighschool)andhigheducationalstatus

(universitydegreeorhigher)inthemodel.Wealsoconsideredagetobeakeyelement-

age35andunderisthepost-Sovietgenerationwhileage65andoveraretypically

pensionerswhospentmostoftheirlivesinSoviettimesandformanyofwhomthepost-

Sovietperiodhasbeenatimeofeconomicdifficulty.Weincludedgenderasacontrol

variablesinceotherworkhasshownmentakestrongerstandsonpositionsregarding

conflictandperceivedexternalaggression.77Weincludeanincomeeffectusingthe

category"wecanonlyaffordfood"andworseasthemeasureoflowincome.Typically,

individualsinthislattercategoryaregenerallylessinterestedingeopoliticalandpublic

affairsandmoreconcernedaboutdailymaterialneeds.

Asecondsetofpredictorsmeasurespoliticalandideologicalorientations.Two

variablesdirectlyconcerninterestininternationalpolitics(weuse"notinterested"asour

measure)andself-placementona10-pointideologicalscalefromfar-lefttofar-right(we

use"leftofcenter"withascoreof1-4asourmeasure).InrelatedworkontheCaucasus

anddefactostates,wehaveseenthatattachmenttotheself-identifiedethnicgroupisan

importantindicatorofarangeofopinionsaboutothergroupsandaccordinglyweincludeit

here("Veryproud"isourmeasureona"veryproud"to"notatallproud"scaleasall

25

groupsshowhighlevelofethnicpride).SinceVladimirPutinisthefaceofRussianforeign

policy,weaddanindicatorofsupportforhispoliciesasakeypredictor("Yes"tothe

questionthataskediftherespondenttrustedthePresidentofRussia,VladimirPutin).

Weconsiderattitudesabouttheongoingconflictoverbordersandsovereigntyin

Ukraineandearlierconflictsinthedefactostatesasimportantelementsinformingaview

aboutthefateofMH17.InanApril2014surveyin8oblastsinSoutheasternUkraine,

includingthewarzonesofLuhanskandDonetskoblasts,KyivInternationalInstituteof

Sociologyhadaskedrespondentsiftheywerewillingtoresistinvaders.Intheirsample,

21%were"willingtoputarmedresistance"toanyRussiantroopsenteringUkraine.78We

repeatedthisquestionandusea"yes"answerasanindicationofstrongpatrioticbeliefs.

Whilethesurveysettingsareinmultiplecountries,allofthemarepotentiallyfuturewar

zonesduestounsettledborders,andterritorialpreferencesandclaims.Weaddan

interactivetermofUkrainiansand"willingnesstofight"toaccountfortheparticularwar

circumstancesinUkraineatthetimeofthesurvey.

Athirdsetofpredictorsrevolvedaroundpost-Sovietmaterialcircumstances.Has

theendoftheSovietUnionhelpedorhurtrespondentsandwhatisthebalancebetween

materialandpoliticalpreferences?Asinmanyofourpreviousstudies,thewell-used

questionabouttheSovietlegacy("wastheendoftheSovietUnionarightorawrong

step?")underliesmanyotherbeliefsaboutthepasttwenty-fiveyearsofeconomicand

politicaldislocations.79WeexpectthosewhobelievethattheendoftheSovietUnionwas

correcttobemorefavorablydisposedtocurrentterritorialarrangementsandwealsoadd

avariablespecificallyaskingaboutfutureeconomicprospects("Willyoulivebetterintwo

yearstime?")tomeasureeconomicoptimism.Athirdmeasureinthiscategoryof

explanationsasksrespondentstoevaluatematerialinterestsagainstterritorial

arrangements.Itaskedrespondentstoagreeordisagreewiththestatementthat"Itdoes

notmatterinwhichcountryIliveaslongasIhaveagoodsalaryandpension".Our

variable"goodsalary"indicatesthosewhoagreeorstronglyagreewiththissentiment.

Ourfourthcategoryofpredictorsismostcloselyconnectedtothemainargumentof

thepaperaboutthedivergentconspiratorialnatureoftheexplanationsforthecrashof

MH17.Itcomprisesfivemeasuresoftelevisionwatchinghabits.Weidentifyrespondents

whowatchmorethan20hoursoftelevisionperweek,thosewhotrusttelevisionnewsand

26

thoseforwhomtelevisionistheirmaininformationsource.Wealsoidentifythosewho

watchtelevisionfromRussiabroadcasters.Finally,weaddedaninteractivetermof

Ukrainiansand"trusttelevisionnews"toidentifythoseUkrainianswhowouldbemost

likelytoaccepttheexplanationcomingfromthePoroshenkogovernment.Lastly,weadda

dummyvariable-residenceinSE6Ukraine-tocharacterizerespondentswhodonotlivein

theRussianinformationspace,thatis,Russiancontrolled(Crimea)orRussiandominated

(defactostates)sites.

SummaryStatistics

OurquestionrepeatedLevadaCenter’sJuly2014questionsoanswersaredirectly

comparableacrosstheregionsofinterest.Thecomparativepercentagesaredisplayedin

Figure1.ThemaincomparisonisblameattributedtoUkrainianforcesversusthosetothe

DonbasmilitantsanditsRussiansupportersandthemultiplecategoriesarecollapsedinto

7majoroptionsfordisplay.Becausetherearebigdifferencesbetweenthenationalities,

theratiosaredisplayedforthemaingroupsineachlocation.Onthegraphs,theSE6

Ukrainesample(bothRussiansandUkrainians),GeorgiansinAbkhaziaandTatarsin

Crimeaaretheexceptionssinceelsewhereaplurality(ArmeniansinAbkhazia)or

majoritiesoftherespectivenationalitiesplacetheblameonUkrainianforcesforthe

aircraftdowning.Valuesmostsimilartotheover-whelmingblameattributedtoUkrainian

forcesbyurbanRussiansinLevada’sJuly2014surveyareseeninTransnistria(allthree

groups),RussiansinAbkhazia,OssetiansandamongRussiansinCrimea.Exceptionally,

GeorgiansinAbkhazia(20%)andUkrainiansintheSE6partofthecountry(justover30%)

attributesignificantblametoRussianforces.OnlyinSE6Ukraine(bothnationalities)and

'others'inTransnistria(amixedgroup)showmorethan10%totheDonbasmilitias.

Itcouldbearguedthatasking“whywasMH17destroyed”isapotentiallysensitive

politicalquestion,onewithamanifest‘politicallycorrect’answer.Whetherthiswasthe

caseornotisdifficulttodetermine.Whatwecansayisthat,inkeepingwithourfindings

onotherpotentiallysensitivequestionsintheseBlackSea-Caucasuslocations,groupswho

feelmarginalizedoralienatedintheirregionalsettingsshowhighratiosof'don'tknow'

answersoutofanabundanceofcaution.Theextremeratios-overone-fifthofGeorgian

respondentsinAbkhazia,RussiansinSE6Ukraine(over40%),UkrainiansinSE6Ukraine

27

(30%),andone-thirdofTatarsinCrimea-arehigherthantheone-fifthratioinRussia.Itis

alsopossiblethatmanyoftherespondentsofRussiannationalitythatgenerallysupport

theKremlinpositionbelievedthatitwasRussianforcesorDonbasmilitantswhoshot

downtheplanebutdecidedagainstrevealingtheiropiniontointerviewersbecauseitdid

notaffirmtheirusualgeopoliticalpreferences.80

Bypoolingthe5samples,wecangaininsightsintothefactorsthatledpeopleto

cometotheirdecisionaboutwhowastoblameforthedowningofMH17.Byincludinga

predictorinthemodelthatdefinedtheresidenceofrespondentsaseitherinSE6Ukraine

ornot,wecanseetheimportanceofthecontextualfactorthathasbeenarguedby

geographersasanelementthatcaninfluencerespondents'attitudes.81Wedrop

respondentswhorefusedtoanswerthequestionaboutMH17;wealsodroprespondents

whosepersonalcharacteristicsarenotavailablesincetheyeitherrefusedtoanswera

specificquestionorprovideda'don'tknow'response.These‘missingcases’resultin3339

respondentsinthestatisticalmodels.

ModelofBlameAttributionfortheCrashofMH17:TheRoleofTelevision

Wehavesummarizedthedramaticallycontrastingblameattributionsputoutby

RussianandUkrainianbroadcastersintheaftermathoftheshootingdownofMH17.Inthe

statisticalmodeling,wekeepthefocusontheroleoftelevisionbyhighlightingits

contributiontothereasonsrespondentsgaveforthedestructionoftheplane.Wechose

multinomiallogitasourpreferredmodelingapproachsinceitallowsexaminationof

circumstanceswithmorethantwodiscreteoutcomes.Inthesecases,thechoiceofa

comparatorisimportantforinterpretationofthecoefficients.Wecollapsethenumberof

blameoptionstofivebycreatingthecomparatorfromcombiningthetwomoreneutral

options-"itwasanaccident"and"itwastheresultofaterroristact."Respondentswho

chosetheseoptionsarenotspecificallyoptingforRussian,UkrainianorDonbasmilitant

forcesbutneitherdotheyavoidtheascriptionofblamebychoosingthe'don'tknow’

option.Inthemultinomiallogitmodeling,wepresentthefourcomparisons-Ukrainian

forces(airforce,armyorvolunteergroups),Russianforces,Donbasmilitantsandthe

"don'tknows"totheaccident/terroristactcomparator.

28

WepresentagraphicaldisplayoftheresultsinFigures2-5ratherthanthe

coefficientsforthe26variables.Weconvertthevaluesfromthemultinominallogistic

regressionintoaveragemarginaleffectsforclarityofdisplayandidentificationofthe

significantfactorsinpredictingthechoiceofblameattribution.Marginaleffectsare

calculatedfrompredictionsofthemodelthatwasfitforeachofthe26predictorsby

averagingtheirvaluesandintegratingovertheremainingvariables.Averagemarginal

effectscanbeinterpretedastheprobabilityforaunitchangeinthevariableofinterest

holdingtheothervariablesconstant.Standarderrorsarerepresentedbytheverticallines

andwhenthe95%errorestimatescrossthezeroline,thepredictorinthatmodelisnot

significant.Allofthemodelingwascompletedbythe'mlogit'commandinSTATA14.

Theinterpretationoftheaveragemarginaleffectsisstraightforward.Forexample,

inFigure2,theaveragemarginaleffectforthe"trustPutin"predictoris.196withasmall

standarderrorestimate.ItishighlysignificantandindicatesthatthosewhotrustPutinare

19.6%morelikelytoblameUkrainianforcesforshootingdownMH17comparedtothose

whodonottrustPutin,holdingothervariablesconstant.

Figure 2: Average marginal effects of individual predictors for blame to Ukrainian forces for theshooting down of MH-17, compared to the respondents who gave “terrorism” or “an accident” as an explanation. Red circles indicate significant differences from the comparator and the vertical lines indicate the error ranges of the estimates

29

Weconsiderthedemographicvariablesascontrolsinthisanalysisanddonotdevotemuch

attentiontotheircoefficients.Fewofthesevariablesshowanysignificantrelationshipwith

anyofthefourblameattributions.Itshouldbenotedthattherearesignificantnumbersof

RussiansandUkrainiansinTransnistriaandCrimea,aswellasinSE6Ukraine.Russians

mightbeexpectedtohavedifferentinterpretationsaboutthecauseoftheMH17crash

becauseofdifferentialexposuretolocaltelevisionstations,aswellasbroadcasts

emanatingfromMoscow.Butthereisinsignificantvariationamongthesesub-populations

bystudysite.Onthefourgraphsoftheaveragemarginaleffects,therelativepositionsof

theestimatesforbothRussiansandUkrainiansareverysimilar.

ForblameattributiontoUkrainianforces,twopredictorswithoppositeeffects

standoutonFigure2.Significantmoreblame(19.6%)isattachedtoUkrainianforcesby

thosewhotrustVladimirPutinwhilesignificantlessblame(23.3%)isdirectedtothese

forcesbyresidentsinSE6Ukraine(comparedtothosewholiveinothersurveysites).

GiventhedebateaboutthecausesoftheMH17planecrashandthekeyrolethatPutin

playedinitsimmediateaftermath,thesevaluesareexpected.Inallbutthelastmodel,that

forthe'don'tknow'blamecategory,residencyinSE6Ukraineishighlysignificant(i.e.

livingwithinaUkrainianstateinformationsphere).Thatsurveysiteisgenerallyclosestto

thelocationoftheMH17disasterinDonetskoblast,certainlyinperceptualspaceaspartof

Ukraineonwhoseterritorytheplanecamedown;thetelevisionandothermediain

UkrainegaveagreatdealofattentiontothiseventandtheongoingwarintheDonbason

theborderofourSE6surveysiteoblasts(Kharkiv,Odesa,Mykolaiv,Zaporizhzhia,Kherson

andDnipro).Theeffectofthislocationalfactorisvisibleinalloftheblameattributions

(Ukrainian,DonbasorRussianforces),aftercontrollingfortheindividualpersonal

characteristicsoftherespondents.Twosmallbutsignificantnegativeeffects(forthosewho

watchmorethan20hoursoftelevisionperweekat1.7%andforUkrainianswhotrustTV

newsat4%)showlessascriptiontoUkrainianforcesandtwosmallsignificantpositive

effects(forthosewhowouldforciblyopposeaninvaderbyforceat3.9%andforthosewho

trustTVnewsat5.2%)arealsovisibleinFigure2.

AtthetimeofthesurveysinDecember2014,neithertheDutchSafetyBoardnorthe

JointInvestigativeCommitteehadreleasedreportsontheirfindings.Yetcircumstantial

30

evidencewasgrowingthatsuggestedthataBuksurface-to-airmissilesystemtransported

fromRussiatoterritorycontrolledbytheDonbasseparatistswastheculpritindowning

MH17.82TheDonbasmilitantsdidnotreceivemuchattentioninoursurveys,except

amongsttherespondentsinSE6Ukraine(Figure1).Themultinomiallogitmodelforthis

blameattributionindicatesfivesignificantpredictorsbuttheeffectsaresmallasseenin

Figure3.ResidentsinSE6Ukraineshowa6.5%greaterpositiveblamefortheDonbas

militantsandthosewhobelievethattheendoftheSovietUnionwasarightstep(agroup

concentratedintheSE6Ukrainiansample)showapositiveeffectof3%.Incontrast,those

whotrustTVnews(minus3.1%),thosewhowatchRussiantelevisionstations(minus

4.7%)andthosewhoare'veryproud'oftheirnationalityatminus3.5%alsoshow

significanteffects.Therelativelackofsignificanteffectsforthismodelisnotsurprising

sincethepublicdebateovertheplightofMH17hadfocusedoneitherRussianorUkrainian

guiltanddivisivelinesdidnotdevelopasreadilyamongthepopulationsofoursurveysites

abouttheDonbasmilitants.

Figure 3: Average marginal effects of individual predictors for blame to Donbas militant forces for the shooting down of MH-17, compared to the respondents who gave “terrorism” or “an accident” as an explanation. Red circles indicate significant differences from the comparator and the vertical lines indicate the error ranges of the estimates

31

BlameonRussianforcesachievedahighrateat31%amongthosewhoself-identifytheir

nationalityasUkrainianinSE6Ukraine.Elsewhere,theratiowasonlysizableat22%

amongGeorgiansinAbkhazia.TheresultsofthefirstmodelforUkrainianforcesare

mirroredinFigure4withthevalues(minus15.1%)oftherespondentswhotrustPutinand

thosewholiveinSE6Ukraine(atplus16.5%)thereverseofthemodelofUkrainianblame

inFigure2.OthernegativevaluesareseenforthosewhosetrustTVnews(minus7.8%),

thosewhowatchRussianTVstations(minus3.7%)andthosewhosaythattheyarenot

interestedinpolitics(minus4.5%).UkrainianswhotrustTVnewsare5.2%morelikelyto

blameRussianforcesandsimilarpositivevaluesareseenforoptimists(thosewhoexpect

tolivebetterin2years)at2.7%andforthosewhothinkthattheendoftheSovietUnion

wasarightstepat8.5%.Onthisblameoption,thedividesamongthesurveysampleisas

clearasitwasfortheUkrainianforces,thoughnowthevaluesarereversed.

Figure 4: Average marginal effects of individual predictors for blame to Russian forces for the shooting down of MH-17, compared to the respondents who gave “terrorism” or “an accident” as an explanation. Red circles indicate significant differences from the comparator and the vertical lines indicate the error ranges of the estimates

32

Thefinalmodelwasnotexpectedtoyieldmuchclarityonpolitical,nationality,TV

watchingandideologicaldividessincea'don'tknow'answercouldhavemanydifferent

provenances.IntheresultsdisplayedonFigure5,thoseofbothRussianandUkrainian

nationalityshowagreaterlikelihoodofpickinga'don'tknow'answerthanothergroups,a

functionoftheirprobablereluctancetoattributeblameintheirrespectivelocalesof

tension(forRussiansinSE6UkraineandforUkrainiansinTransnistriaandCrimea).Those

whowatchRussiantelevisionstationsaremorelikelytogivea'don'tknow'answerat6%,

perhapsasaresponsetotheaccumulatinginformationaboutthecausesofthecrashatthe

timeofthesurveywhichwasincreasinglypointingthefingerofblameonRussian-backed

forces.Thiscumulatingevidencecontradictstheirgenerallypro-Kremlinpositionsanda

'don'tknow'answerisonewaytoresolvethisasymmetry.Lesslikelytogivea'don't

know'answerwerethosewhothoughttheendoftheSovietUnionwasarightstep(minus

8.7%)andthosewhowerewillingtofightinvadersatminus6.1%.

Figure 5: Average marginal effects of individual predictors for “don’t know” answers for the shooting down of MH-17, compared to the respondents who gave “terrorism” or “an accident” as an explanation. Red circles indicate significant differences from the comparator and the vertical lines indicate the error ranges

33

Ouranalysisofthesurveysshowsthatblameattributionwasdrivenmorebytelevision

habitsthananyotherfactor.Ofcourse,habitsareingrainedandnowdictatedincreasingly

byaccesstobroadcastsfromacrosstheborderasUkraineandRussiatrytoconstrain

informationtocertainreliablesourcesthatsticktothegovernmentline.Residentsinthe

region(theBlackSeaareamorebroadly)areincreasinglylivingin'differentworlds'

despitethesharedprovenancesoftheirterritoriesintheformerSovietUnionandtheir

traditionalinter-nationality,languageandeconomicties.

CONCLUSION

ThedowningofMH17wasapivotaleventintheUkrainecrisisof2014,amoment

whereitsviolencebecomeworldwidenews.AwaveofrevulsionintheWestprovided

popularimpetusfortheimpositionofnewsanctionsonRussianindividualsandentitiesby

theEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStatesinJuly2014.MH17isaneventthatcontinuesto

hauntRussia’sforeignpolicyandtheseparatistsitsupportsinUkraine.InJanuary2017,

theUkrainiangovernmentfiledacaseagainsttheRussiangovernmentintheInternational

CourtofJusticefortheillegalannexationofCrimeaandforitsfinancingofactsofterrorism

ontheterritoryofUkraine.AmongtheactsenumeratedisthedowningofMH17.

PreliminaryhearingsonthecasebeganinMarch2017anditisnotlikelytobedecidedfor

years.83InJuly2017,justbeforethethirdanniversaryoftheMH17downing,theDutch

ForeignMinistrydeclaredthatsuspectsinthatdowningwillbetriedinaDutchcourt.The

evidencegatheredbytheJIConthedowningofMH17canbeusedtoprosecutethose

responsiblebutitmuststandupincourt.84

MH17isoneamongaseriesofshockevents–Euromaidan,theannexationof

Crimea,theOdesatragedy--thatareatthefulcrumofamultimedia‘informationwar’

betweenRussiaanditsallies,ononeside,andUkraine,theEuropeanUnionandtheUS,on

theother.85Thatdiscursivestruggleischaracterizedbymanyofthemechanismswehave

examinedhere–affectiveimagery,thepromotionof‘partisantruths,’thepoliticizationof

authorityandexpertise,agnotologyanddisinformation,otheringthroughconspiracy

theorymongering–andithasproducedaself-affirmingbubbleofunderstandingthatis

insulatedfrominconvenientmaterialfacts.Inthispaper,wehaveshownhowordinary

34

residentsinasetofstudysitesacrosstheBlackSearegionappeartobeguidedintheir

understandingofmajorgeopoliticalevents,likethedestructionofMH17,bythetelevisual

info-spherewithinwhichtheylive.Dataanalysisalsosuggeststhatpeopletendtofollow

thenarrativesofthepoliticalleadershipstheytrust.Thehigh'don'tknow'ratiosseenin

somelocationsarelikelyacombinationofgenuineconfusionaboutthereasonsforthe

plane'sdestruction(itselfacreatedcondition),tacticalavoidanceofapoliticizedtopic,and

decisionsbysometonotaffirmblamenarrativescontrarytotherespondentsgeneral

(geo)politicalorientation.

Giventheirsignificanceininternationalaffairs,scholarsneedtopaymoreattention

toshockeventsinconflicts,thestorylinesdisseminatedbypoliticallycontrolledtelevision

networkstomanagethemeaningoftheseevents,andthereceptionthesestorylines

receivebydifferentaudiences.Thisisparticularlyimportantgiventhemanifest

fragmentationoftraditionalmediaandpoliticsinmanyWesternstates,whichsome

commentatorshavelinkedtotheinfluenceof‘filterbubbles’–informationflowsshapedby

algorithmsusingpastpreferences--anda‘post-truth’politicsdrivingtheBREXITand

Trumpcampaignsof2016.‘Post-truth’geopoliticsisnot,unfortunately,aRussian

monopoly.Itisaperniciousfeatureofourcontemporarygeopoliticalcondition.

NOTES1DutchSafetyBoard,CrashofMalaysianAirlinesflightMH17,Hrabove,Ukraine,17July2014,October2015,availableat:https://www.onderzoeksraad.nl/uploads/phase-docs/1006/debcd724fe7breport-mh17-crash.pdf2Seehttps://www.om.nl/onderwerpen/mh17-vliegramp/presentaties/presentation-joint/3ForavideolayingouttheDutchInvestigatingCommittee’sevidencesee:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sf6gJ8NDhYA.4RolandOliphantandSenayBoztas,'MH17Investigation:Moscowdenounces'biased'investigationasprosecutorssaymissilecamefromRussia,’DailyTelegraph,26September2016,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/28/mh17-investigation-prosecutors-to-reveal-where-missile-that-down/5ForthefulltextoftheannouncementinRussianandEnglishsee:http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-day-150-ukrainian-troops-describe-grad-rocket-attack-from-russia/#33916Muchofthe‘digitallabor’usedbyunitslikeBellingcatisunpaid.SeeMattSienkiewicz,‘OpenBUK:DigitalLabor,MediaInvestigationandtheDowningofMH17,’CriticalStudiesinMediaCommunication,32(2015),pp.208-223.BellingcatlateralliedwiththeWashington

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DCbasedadvocacyorganization,theAtlanticCouncil.ForavideorecountingtheirMH17investigativeworksee:https://www.facebook.com/DFRLab/videos/1747134938634385/7OnthecompetingnarrativesvyingtoframethemeaningoftheUkrainecrisisseeRichardSakwa,FrontlineUkraine:CrisisintheBorderlands,(London:I.B.Tauris,2015);GerardToal,NearAbroad:Putin,theWestandtheContestforUkraineandtheCaucasus(NewYork:OxfordUniversityPress,2017)andSamuelCharapandTimothyJ.Colton,EveryoneLoses:TheUkraineCrisisandtheRuinousContestforPost-SovietEurasia(London:Routledge,2017).OnthemediadimensionseeMikhailSuslovandMarkBassin(eds.)Eurasia2.0:RussianGeopoliticsintheAgeofNewMedia(Lanham,MD:LexingtonBooks,2016)andJulieFedor(ed.)RussianMediaandtheWarinUkraine(Stuttgart:IbidemPress,2015).8Ontheimportanceofnarrativetopolicymakingsee,interalia,MaartenA.Hajer,ThePoliticsofEnvironmentalDiscourse(Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress,1995)andRonaldKrebsNarrativeandtheMakingofUSNationalSecurity(Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,2015).OnstorylinesandthecriticalstudyofgeopoliticsseeGearóidÓTuathail,‘Theorizingpracticalgeopoliticalreasoning:thecaseoftheUnitedStates’responsetothewarinBosnia,’PoliticalGeography,21(2001),pp.601-628andJohnO’Loughlin,GearóidÓTuathailandVladimirKolossov,‘Russiangeopoliticalstorylinesandpublicopinioninthewakeof9–11:acriticalgeopoliticalanalysisandnationalsurvey,’CommunistandPost-CommunistStudies,37(2007),pp.281-318.9SeeKemalKurspachic,PrimeTimeCrime:BalkanMediainWarandPeace(WashingtonDC:USInstituteofPeacePress,2003);LaraNettelfieldandSarahWagner,SrebrenicaintheAftermathofGenocide(Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,2014);EricGordy,Guilt,ResponsibilityandDenial(Philadelphia:UniversityofPennsylvaniaPress,2013).10OnobservingtheSrebrenicabysatelliteseeLisaParks,CulturesinOrbit:SatellitesandtheTelevisual(Durham:DukeUniversityPress,2005).11SeeMcKenzieWarkVirtualGeography:LivingwithGlobalMediaEvents(Bloomington,IN:IndianaUniversityPress,1994).12SeeMatthewSparke,‘OutsidesInsidePatriotism:TheOklahomaBombingandtheDisplacementofHeartlandGeopolitics’inRethinkingGeopolitics,eds.GearóidÓTuathail,SimonDalby(London:Routledge,1998),pp.198–223;GearóidÓTuathail,‘PlacingBlame:MakingSenseofBeslan,’PoliticalGeography,28(2009),pp.4-15;andReeceJones,BorderWalls(London:ZedPress,2012).13FortheRussiancaseseeDavidSatter,TheLessYouKnow,theBetterYouSleep:Russia’sRoadtoTerrorandDictatorshipunderYeltsinandPutin(NewHaven:YaleUniversityPress,2016).ForacritiqueseeJohnMueller,Overblown:HowPoliticiansandtheTerrorismIndustryInflateNationalSecurityThreats,andWhyWeBelieveThem(NewYork:FreePress,2006).14SeeFrancoisDebrix,GlobalPowersofHorror:Security,Politics,andtheBodyinPieces(London:Routledge,2016)andElizabethAnker,OrgiesofFeeling:MelodramaandthePoliticsofFreedom(Durham,NC:DukeUniversityPress,2014).15SeeJamesDerDerian,'The(S)paceofInternationalRelations:Simulation,Surveillance,andSpeed,'InternationalStudiesQuarterly,34(1990),pp.295-310.16OnaffectinthecreationofemotionseeLisaFeldmanBarrett,HowEmotionsareMade:TheSecretLifeoftheBrain(NewYork:HoughtonMifflinHarcourt,2017).OnthedebateoveraffectivetransmissionandcontagionseeMargaretWetherell,AffectandEmotion:A

36

NewSocialScienceUnderstanding(ThousandOaks,CA:Sage,2012).OnaffectandgeopoliticsseeJosephMasco,TheTheaterofOperations:NationalSecurityAffectfromtheColdWartotheWaronTerror(Durham,NC:DukeUniversityPress,2014).17ForErnestoLaclau,‘dislocations’areeventsthatcannotbesymbolizedbyanexistentdiscursiveorder.’ForadiscussionseeDavidHowarth,Discourse(Buckingham,UK:OpenUniversityPress,2000),pp.109-111.18Thistermiscontentiousandisassociatedwith‘prospecttheory’inpsychologyandeconomics.SeeDanielKahneman,Thinking,FastandSlow(NewYork:Farrar,StrausandGiroux,2011).19Onthepsychologicalpitfallsof‘commonsense’,seeDuncanJ.Watts,EverythingisObvious:HowCommonSenseFailsUs(NewYork:CrownBusiness,2011).20ArkadyOstrovsky,TheInventionofRussia(NewYork,Viking,2015).Onself-censorshipaslearnedadekvatnost(correctinstincts)withinRussiantelevisionproductionseeElisabethSchimpfosslandIlyaYablokov,‘CoercionorConformism?CensorshipandSelf-CensorshipamongRussianMediaPersonalitiesandReportersinthe2010s,’Demokratizatsiya,22(2014),pp.295-312.21See,forexample,PeterPomerantsevandMichaelWeiss,'TheMenaceofUnreality:HowtheKremlinWeaponizesInformation,CultureandMoney,'TheInterpreter,22November2014;http://www.interpretermag.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/The_Menace_of_Unreality_Final.pdf.22NaomiOreskesandErikConway,MerchantsofDoubt(NewYork:Bloomsbury,2010)andAndrewWilson,VirtualPolitics(NewHaven:YaleUniversityPress,2005).23CassSunsteinandAdrianVermeule,‘ConspiracyTheories:CausesandCures.’JournalofPoliticalPhilosophy,17(2009),pp.202-227;LauraJones,‘TheCommonplaceGeopoliticsofConspiracy,’GeographyCompass,6(2012),pp.44-59.24IlyaYablokov,‘ConspiracyTheoriesasaRussianPublicDiplomacyTool:TheCaseofRussiaToday(RT),’Politics35(2015),pp.301–315.25AndrewBarry,MaterialPolitics:DisputesAlongthePipeline(Malden,MA:WileyBlackwell,2013)andSarahWagner,ToKnowWhereHeLies:DNATechnologyandtheSearchforSrebrenica’sMissing(Berkeley,CA:UniversityofCaliforniaPress,2008).26See:http://www.russiansearchtips.com/2015/01/top-10-russias-largest-media-2014/27OnRussianmediaandtheimportanceofVremya,seeArkadyOstrovsky,TheInventionofRussia(NewYork:Viking,2015).28TheownershiphistoryofInteranditsplaceintheUkrainianmedialandscapeiscomplex(ironicallyitispartlyownedbyPerviyKanal).ForanintroductionseeTarasKuzio,Ukraine:Democratization,Corruption,andtheNewRussianImperialism(SantaBarbara:PraegerSecurityInternational,2015),especiallyp.391.OnUkrainianmediaownershipseeDmytroKorol,YuriyVinnychukandDianaKostenko,‘Informatsiinazbroia–komunalezhat’ukraiinskiZMI,’Insider,9December2015,http://www.theinsider.ua/infographics/2014/2015_smi/vlasnyky.html29BBCNews,‘Ukrainiansiegeof'pro-Russian'InterTVstudiosends,’6September2014,http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-3728863030ElizavetaGaufman,SecurityThreatsandPublicPerception:DigitalRussiaandtheUkraineCrisis(London:Palgrave,2017).ForoneofmanyMH17conspiracyvideoproducedbyRussianmediaseehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arNfVvUnKC8.Onthedebunking

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ofRussiantelevisionclaimsbysocialmediaseeVitalyShevchenko,‘WebUsersDebunkRussianTV'sMH17Claim,’BBCMonitoring,15November2014,http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-3006437431DutchSafetyBoard,CrashofMalaysianAirlinesMH17,p.26.32Fortheseinitialreports,thesecondofwhichquotesDNRrepresentativessayingtheydonothaveweaponsthatcouldhitaplaneatsuchheight,see:http://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-17/37495-boing_777_malayziyskih_avialiniy_poterpel_krushenie_v_donetskoy_oblastiandhttp://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-17/37496-boing_777_malaziyskih_avialiniy_ruhnul_na_territorii_ukrainy_nedaleko_ot_posyolka_snezhnoe33See:https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-17/37497-295_chelovek_pogibli_segodnya_v_aviakatastrofe_v_donetskoy_oblasti34https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-17/37498-postupaet_informatsiya_chto_uzhe_naydeny_oblomki_boinga_i_neskolko_desyatkov_tel_pogibshih35https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-17/37499-v_aeroportu_amsterdama_soobschili_chto_reys_do_kuala_lumpura_byl_otpravlen_bez_zaderzhek36See,forexample:https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-17/37503-redaktor_zhurnala_natsionalnaya_oborona_i_korotchenko_prokommentiroval_aviakatastrofu_boinga_77737https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-17/37525-interfaks_veroyatnoy_tselyu_ukrainskoy_rakety_mog_byt_samolet_prezidenta_rossii38https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-18/37575-na_mesto_krusheniya_boinga_777_pribyli_nablyudateli_obse39http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/4624340https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-18/37578-chto_proizoshlo_v_nebe_nad_donetskoy_oblastyu_raznye_versii_aviakatastrofy_boinga_77741https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-18/37585-v_nyu_yorke_prohodit_ekstrennoe_zasedanie_soveta_bezopasnosti_oon42RemarksbyAmbassadorVitalyChurkin,UnitedNationsSecurityCouncil,S/PV.7219,18July2014.43https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-18/37587-kak_politiki_mogut_ispolzovat_katastrofu_na_ukraine44Ibid.45Ibid.46Ibid.47 https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-19/37636-minoborony_rf_kommentiruet_stremlenie_kieva_naznachit_vinovnyh_v_katastrofe 48https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-20/37670-komu_vygodno_kiev_i_opolchentsy_obvinyayut_drug_druga_v_katastrofe_boinga_77749Theanimationsegmentis25secondslong,from6:48to7:13.50https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-18/37587-kak_politiki_mogut_ispolzovat_katastrofu_na_ukraine

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51http://podrobnosti.ua/news-release-list/2014/7/17/20/0/(fullbroadcast17July2014).52http://podrobnosti.ua/985209-terrorist-girkin-fakticheski-vzjal-otvetstvennost-za-sbityj-boing-777-na-sebja.html53http://podrobnosti.ua/news-release-list/2014/7/18/20/0/(fullbroadcast18July2014).54http://podrobnosti.ua/985378-stavka-na-lozh-rossija-pytaetsja-opravdatsja-za-sbityj-boing-fejkami-video.html55http://podrobnosti.ua/985381-merkel-prinjala-reshenie-o-rasshirenii-sanktsij-protiv-rossii.html56http://podrobnosti.ua/985384-v-hode-zasedanija-sovbeza-zvuchali-rezkie-zajavlenija-v-storonu-rossii.html57http://podrobnosti.ua/985385-moskvichi-vosprinjali-avariju-boinga-kak-lichnuju-tragediju-video.html58ForavideoofKartapolov’spresentationsee:https://www.rt.com/news/174412-malaysia-plane-russia-ukraine/.Thetranslationthatfollowsusesthatprovidedforthisvideo.59https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-21/37747-minoborony_rf_obnarodovalo_svoi_dannye_otnositelno_aviakatastrofy_malayziyskogo_boinga60https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-22/37828-eksperty_aktivno_kommentiruyut_dannye_ob_ektivnogo_kontrolya_obnarodovannye_nakanune_minoborony_rf61ForavideosegmentimmediatelyaftercriticizingtheUnitedStatesseeGrigoriYemelyanov:https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-22/37829-zamyat_dlya_yasnosti_reaktsiya_kieva_i_vashingtona_na_ob_ektivnye_no_neudobnye_dlya_sebya_dannye62http://podrobnosti.ua/985716-videoobraschenie-putina-k-natsii-snimali-vpopyhah-video.html63http://podrobnosti.ua/985712-germanskie-smi-prizyvajut-ostanovit-putina.html64http://podrobnosti.ua/985710-kemeron-objasnil-putinu-chto-za-nim-sledit-ves-mir.html65Seehttp://podrobnosti.ua/985880-eksperty-obse-vernutsja-v-torez-za-telami-i-oblomkami-samoleta-video.html(22July)andhttp://podrobnosti.ua/985881-rossijskij-ekspert-nazval-glupostju-versiju-kremlja-o-gibeli-boinga-777-video.html(23July).66LukashevichdoesnotstateitinthisclipbutthemaximumceilingheightofaSu-25is5.6km.Becausetheplanesareold,mostwouldstruggletoevengainthisaltitude.67Seealso:http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/07/22/russian-hero-pilot-accused-the-russian-defense-ministry-of-lying-about-the-boeing-777/#arvlbdata68Forexample,see23Julyreport:http://podrobnosti.ua/986027-vse-tela-zhertv-katastrofy-boinga-777-otpravjat-v-gollandiju-do-pjatnitsy-video.html69http://podrobnosti.ua/986203-hodakovskij-v-intervju-reuters-priznal-chto-Buk-vernuli-v-rossiju.html(24July2014).

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70Foranexamplesee24JulyreportfromtheWashingtoncorrespondentDmitryAnopchenko:http://podrobnosti.ua/986186-ssha-nanosit-udar-po-rossijskomu-beznesu.html71TheRussiantextwas:СЛЫШАЛИЛИВЫОКРУШЕНИИ17ИЮЛЯМАЛАЗИЙСКОГОСАМОЛЕТАВНЕБЕНАДУКРАИНОЙ,ИЕСЛИДА,ПОЧЕМУ,НАВАШВЗГЛЯД,ПОГИБЭТОТСАМОЛЕТ?Wehaveusedaparaphraseoftheinterviewquestionforthisarticle’stitle.WearewellawarethatMH17waslessaplane“crash”(whichsuggestsaccidentallyhittingthegroundoranotherobject)thanashoot-down(purposefuldestructioninflight).72Fortheresultsandbriefanalysis,seehttp://www.levada.ru/2014/07/30/katastrofa-boinga-pod-donetskom73QuotedinAlecLuhn,‘MH17:VastMajorityofRussiansbelieveUkrainedownedplane,pollfinds,’TheGuardian30July2014.https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/30/mh17-vast-majority-russians-believe-ukraine-downed-plane-poll74InJulyandAugust2014Levadaaskedamoredirectblameallocationquestion(whichwechosenottouse)innationalsurveyswithanoptionthatincludedtheUnitedStates.SeeLevadaCenter,‘WhodownedtheMalaysianBoeinginEasternUkraine?’3October2014,http://www.levada.ru/en/2014/10/03/who-downed-the-malaysian-boeing-in-eastern-ukraine/75FordiscussionofthesurveyseeJohnO’Loughlin,GerardToalandVladimirKolosov,‘TheRiseandFallof‘Novorossiya’:ExaminingSupportforaSeparatistGeopoliticalImaginaryinSoutheastUkraine,’Post-SovietAffairs33(2017),pp124-144.76GerardToal,JohnO’Loughlin,‘FrozenFragments,SimmeringSpaces:ThePost-SovietDeFactoStates,’inEdwardHollandandMatthewDerrick,eds,QuestioningPost-Soviet,(WashingtonDC:WilsonCenter,2016),pp.103-125,availableathttps://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/questioning_post-soviet.pdf.77Forasummaryofgenderdifferences,seeTomW.Smith,'ThePolls:GenderandAttitudestowardViolence,'PublicOpinionQuarterly48(1984),pp.384-396.78KyivInternationalInstituteofSociology(KIIS)'TheViewsandOpinionsofSouth-EasternRegionsResidentsofUkraine,April2014,'http://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=news&id=258 79‘FrozenFragments,SimmeringSpaces’80Foraconsiderationofhowpoliticalpartisansgetpastawkwardfactsabouttheirleadersto‘convenienttruths’seeDrewWesten,ThePoliticalBrain(NewYork:PublicAffairs,2007).81AndrewLinkeandJohnO’Loughlin,‘Reconceptualizing,Measuring,andEvaluatingDistanceandContextintheStudyofConflicts:UsingSurveyDatafromtheNorthCaucasusofRussia.’InternationalStudiesReview17(2015),pp.107-125.82See,forexample,‘MH17:SourceoftheSeparatistBuk.ABellingcatInvestigation,’8November2014,https://www.bellingcat.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Origin-of-the-Separatists-Buk-A-Bellingcat-Investigation1.pdf.Thegrowingbodyofevidencewasconsistentlycontested,whenacknowledged,byRussiantelevision.83RolandOliphant,‘UkrainesuesRussiainInternationalCourtofJusticefor'financingterrorism,'DailyTelegraph,6March2017,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/06/ukraine-sues-russia-international-court-justiceforfinancing/

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84TheJIChaveidentifiedapproximatelyonehundredindividualsinvolvedinmovingtheBukweaponsystemintoUkraine.ThedegreetowhichUkraineisresponsiblefornotclosingairspaceovertheeasternconflictzoneisamatterofdebate.ForareviewoftheapplicableinternationallawseeMarkGibney,‘TheDowningofMH17:RussianResponsibility?'HumanRightsLawReview15(2015),pp.169-178.85HenryHale,OxanaShevel,OlgaOnuch,“BeliefFormationintheFogofWar:ACaseStudyofthe2014OdesaTragedy.”Manuscriptunderreview.