Annual Change in House Prices

Source: Land Registry

Prices are now falling very fast

More to come

Plus…

Loss of new build premium

New home prices down by 20-40%

Source: Nationwide, Halifax

with a big hit to turnover – particularly take up of new homes

most notably amongst

• investors• first time buyers

Source: HBF, Bank of England

Fastest falls are in the South of England

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

Scotla

ndNor

th

N.Wes

t

Wale

s

E.Mids

W.M

ids

Lond

onY&H UK

S.Eas

t

S.Wes

t

E.Ang

lia

Pric

e G

row

th

Change in last year Change from peak

Source: Nationwide to Sep 08

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Q41998

Q41999

Q42000

Q42001

Q42002

Q42003

Q42004

Q42005

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

% N

et B

alan

ce

Rental growth New rental instructions Tenant demand

Source: RICS

Underlying demand is still there

But…Higher supply is leading to rental weakness

From Recession to recovery: a local dimension. (November 2008)

•LGA and PACEC

•Functional Economic Areas

•High levels of economic self containment

•Distribution of 1.7m fewer jobs?

•London is the region most likely to underperform the national average in a recession

•City job losses and bonuses?

From Recession to recovery: a local dimension. (November 2008)

Issues for discussion…

•Commuting patterns in the sub-region

•Relationship of housing supply, tenure and the nature of employment

•Economic regeneration across the sub region.

•The role of the sub region in supporting the wider London Economy

•How can housing and economic development be planned to improve sustainability

•The trajectory of the local economy and the impact of the recession in terms of job losses and reduced incomes

•The potential for Local Housing Strategies and Local Development Frameworks to support economic development and the labour supply