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Animated Butterfly. HSCB Modeling. CDR Dylan Schmorrow, MSC, USN Program Director, OSD HSCB Modeling Program Biosystems Assistant Director, Human Systems Staff Specialist Office of the Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (S&T) dylan.schmorrow@osd.mil - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Animated ButterflyCDR Dylan Schmorrow, MSC, USNProgram Director, OSD HSCB Modeling ProgramBiosystems Assistant Director, Human Systems Staff SpecialistOffice of the Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (S&T)dylan.schmorrow@osd.milhttp://www.linkedin.com/pub/dir/dylan/schmorrowHSCB Modeling

  • *SoWho are we?What are we doing?Why are we doing it?Where are we going?How will we get there?

  • Why?A new Research and Development (R&D) program to develop a science base and associated technologies for HSCB modeling.

    Vertically integrated across three categories of RDT&E funding: Applied Research (PE0602670D8Z), Advanced Technology Development (PE0603670D8Z), andAdvanced Component Development & Prototypes (PE0604670D8Z).

    The military capability needs being addressed center on enablement of modeling for Irregular Warfare (IW) and Security, Stability, Transition, and Reconstruction Operations (SSTRO) and on using computational models to support operations analysis, intelligence analysis, training and joint experimentation.

    The overarching goal is to provide DoD and the US Government with the ability to understand and effectively operate in human/social/culture terrains inherent to non-conventional warfare missions.

  • Who?The HSCB Program has established several DoD-wide coordination venues: Program Execution IPT (PE-IPT), Senior Technical Experts Group (S-TEG)Users Group (HSCB-UG), In addition, elements of the HSCB Program will be coordinated within federal interagency forums established by the National Science and Technology Council.

  • *What?The HSCB program will integrate and demonstrate a validated, human terrain forecasting modeling approach that enables the examination of second, third, and higher order effects of kinetic and non-kinetic actions within a theater in support of Effects Based Operations; demonstrate the feasibility of integrating HSCB process and software into strategic level conflict resolution and regional stability planning tools; and integrate and demonstrate training technologies to deliver socio-cultural understanding and skills needed for individuals and small units in current and future military operations.

  • Where in OSD?

  • How Organized?*

  • NDU RecommendationsNDU sponsored workshop held 28-30 July 2008 with 120 participantsHSCB modeling needs were classified into twelve interrelated categories Data Needs, Definition Needs, Measures of Merit Needs, Theory Needs, Basic Research Needs, Tools Needs, Representation in Tools Needs, Prediction Needs, Design of Experiment Needs, VV&A Needs, Education/Training Needs, Outreach NeedsNDU-defined needs guided HSCB BAA development, IPT formation, and project selectionHSCB Modeling Program implemented NDU recommendations as part of awards, BAA development, systems engineering task, and/or core IPT processes

  • ONR and CTTSO

  • ERDEC & CERDECERDEC-TEC Will principally focus on socio-cultural data model development; the hybrid modeling associated with socio-cultural and geospatial data; transition to tactical users and SOF; and will provide the government sponsored testbed for operational feasibility demonstrations in support of BAA respondents and HSCB-related technologies.

    CERDEC/I2WD Will principally focus on the implementation of the COMPOEX framework to support HSCB technology transition to DCGS-A and select other Army systems; and will research and develop an HSCB-PMESII Modeling Framework to ensure early adaptation and transition of advanced HSCB-PMESII modeling technologies to the DCGS-A Architecture and other Army Intelligence Architectures.

  • ERDEC & CERDECERDEC-TEC Will principally focus on socio-cultural data model development; the hybrid modeling associated with socio-cultural and geospatial data; transition to tactical users and SOF; and will provide the government sponsored testbed for operational feasibility demonstrations in support of BAA respondents and HSCB-related technologies.

    CERDEC/I2WD Will principally focus on the implementation of the COMPOEX framework to support HSCB technology transition to DCGS-A and select other Army systems; and will research and develop an HSCB-PMESII Modeling Framework to ensure early adaptation and transition of advanced HSCB-PMESII modeling technologies to the DCGS-A Architecture and other Army Intelligence Architectures.

  • MITREDirectly assists in the development of technology investment plans, selection of investment technologies and assist in the assessment and transition of selected technologies.

    MITRE will also:Develop and/or integrate, & implement a hybrid modeling framework (in conjunction with government partners) and test protocol to support the evaluation of BAA respondent technologies and conduct technology integration experimentsPlan and conduct Technical Integration Experiments, Operational Feasibility Experiments and Operational Feasibility Demonstrations.Support transition HSCB technologies to programs of record.Conduct social science analysis and outreach to leverage emerging technologies and practicesCollect and maintain operational requirements.Perform other systems engineering activities as directed.

  • HSCB Domain ChallengeOther organizations in DoD are implementing technologies in the HSCB domain because of a critical needWho in the room knows what DoD is doing across the board in this domain?Who knows some of what DoD is doing in this domain?Who knows what the following organizations or projects have done or are doing? CENTCOM J9 Strategic Assessments, NIKE, JIEDDO, SKOPE, JS J5, Mat-HT/HTS, OSD PA&E, EUCOM/PACOM Strategic Communications, etc.Are they doing research or implementation in this fieldHow do we get ahead of this curve, do the research that needs to get done, leverage what has already been done, and directly help these DoD implementation leaders and other programs?

  • AnswersThere are no easy answers, howeverWhile HSCB will pursue 6.2, 6.3, and 6.4 research, we need to determine how constantly assess how the research will benefit DoD and how some of it will transitionWe will establish projects and facilities that:Conduct technology integration experiments using your researchIntegrate promising research into meta-projects that examine research in more operational ways/environments; determine what is readyTransition research and/or meta-projectsWhat should you do?Ensure that you participate in experiments Be prepared to answer how your research can interface with/pass data across program.

  • Transition ChallengeIf transition is the key, how does your great research come together to help the DoD and the warfighter?How does your research project transition?To who?Why?How?How does your research project come together with others to make and end to solution that is transitionable?What are your inputs?What are your outputs?What are your assumptions?Where do you get your data?Who do you assume the user to be (E4 or PhD?)Are you designing a system that a real user can use?

  • Transformation ChallengesTransparency in HSCB models and toolsEver-broader range of prospective usersNon-specialists need to understand whats under the hoodBuild confidence across user communities that models are valid, appropriate, and relevantAnd that models/tools can add real value to operational programsFundamental and essential multi-disciplinary collaborationRelevant to theory, method, data, hermeneutics, and technologyGeneralizabilityMultiple domains, environments; Are current approaches adequate to address the Strategic Operational Tactical spectrum?Meta- and contextual issues, e.g.,Education and training: for user communities; What about the research community (e.g., to facilitate cross-disciplinary exploration)?Other investments?

  • Way AheadWhile HSCB will pursue 6.2, 6.3, and 6.4 research, we need to determine how constantly assess how the research will benefit DoD and how some of it will transitionWe will establish projects and facilities that:Conduct technology integration experiments using your research and othersIntegrate promising research into meta-projects that examine research in more operational ways and environments and determine what is ready for transitionTransition research and/or meta-projects to programs of record, COCOMs, or other DoDWhat should you do?Ensure that you participate in experiments when askedUnderstand the domain in which you propose to insert your technologyBe prepared to answer how your research can interface with, take data from, or pass data to another projects technology.Show technical progress in assessable six month increments

  • Random ThoughtsIts BIG R; not little rBig License Fees Bad.Open Architectures Good.Like SurvivorPlay Well With OthersSBIRS/STTRSPublishTwo HatsShowcase other workMost important BE RELEVANT!!!

    ***HSCB report page 7-8******In addition to the technical challenges and transition challenges Ive already discussed, let me say a few words about some issues that are critical to enabling true transformation in this field

    First, we need greater transparency in HSCB models and toolsWhat do I mean by that?

    As HSCB models transition to operational programs, an ever-broader range of prospective users will be using them and the tools you build to leverage themMost of these new users will not be modelersThey will likely not be computer scientists, or mathematicians, or psychologists, or sociologistsThey will need more than a friendly user interface

    Prospective users need to understand enough about whats under the hood so they can grasp what the model is doing and translate how unexpected variations that occur in their real-world scenarios might be served by a given model or toolProviding a magic black box that produces data you can t