23
ANGLO AMERICAN IRON ORE QUALITY & VOLUME James Harman - Head of Business Development, Iron Ore and Coal Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast 20 March 2012 Perth, Australia

ANGLO AMERICAN IRON ORE/media/Files/A/Anglo-American-PLC-V... · ANGLO AMERICAN IRON ORE QUALITY & VOLUME James Harman - Head of Business Development, Iron Ore and Coal Global Iron

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

ANGLO AMERICAN IRON ORE QUALITY & VOLUME James Harman - Head of Business Development, Iron Ore and Coal

Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast 20 March 2012 Perth, Australia

2

Disclaimer  This  presenta,on  has  been  prepared  by  Anglo  American  plc  (“Anglo  American”)  and  comprises  the  wri;en  materials/slides  for  a  presenta,on  concerning  Anglo  American.  By  a;ending  this  presenta,on  and/or  reviewing  the  slides  you  agree  to  be  bound  by  the  following  condi,ons.  This  presenta,on  is  for  informa,on  purposes  only  and  does  not  cons,tute  an  offer  to  sell  or  the  solicita,on  of  an  offer  to  buy  shares  in  Anglo  American.  Further,  it  does  not  cons,tute  a  recommenda,on  by  Anglo  American  or  any  other  party  to  sell  or  buy  shares  in  Anglo  American  or  any  other  securi,es.  All  wri;en  or  oral  forward-­‐looking  statements  a;ributable  to  Anglo  American  or  persons  ac,ng  on  their  behalf  are  qualified  in  their  en,rety  by  these  cau,onary  statements.  Forward-­‐Looking  Statements  This  presenta,on  includes  forward-­‐looking  statements.  All  statements  other  than  statements  of  historical  facts  included  in  this  presenta,on,  including,  without  limita,on,  those  regarding  Anglo  American’s  financial  posi,on,  business  and  acquisi,on  strategy,  plans  and  objec,ves  of  management  for  future  opera,ons  (including  development  plans  and  objec,ves  rela,ng  to  Anglo  American’s  products,  produc,on  forecasts  and  reserve  and  resource  posi,ons),  are  forward-­‐looking  statements.  Such  forward-­‐looking  statements  involve  known  and  unknown  risks,  uncertain,es  and  other  factors  which  may  cause  the  actual  results,  performance  or  achievements  of  Anglo  American,  or  industry  results,  to  be  materially  different  from  any  future  results,  performance  or  achievements  expressed  or  implied  by  such  forward-­‐looking  statements.    Such  forward-­‐looking  statements  are  based  on  numerous  assump,ons  regarding  Anglo  American’s  present  and  future  business  strategies  and  the  environment  in  which  Anglo  American  will  operate  in  the  future.  Important  factors  that  could  cause  Anglo  American’s  actual  results,  performance  or  achievements  to  differ  materially  from  those  in  the  forward-­‐looking  statements  include,  among  others,  levels  of  actual  produc,on  during  any  period,  levels  of  global  demand  and  commodity  market  prices,  mineral  resource  explora,on  and  development  capabili,es,  recovery  rates  and  other  opera,onal  capabili,es,  the  availability  of  mining  and  processing  equipment,  the  ability  to  produce  and  transport  products  profitably,  the  impact  of  foreign  currency  exchange  rates  on  market  prices  and  opera,ng  costs,  the  availability  of  sufficient  credit,  the  effects  of  infla,on,  poli,cal  uncertainty  and  economic  condi,ons  in  relevant  areas  of  the  world,  the  ac,ons  of  compe,tors,  ac,vi,es  by  governmental  authori,es  such  as  changes  in  taxa,on  or  safety,  health,  environmental  or  other  types  of  regula,on  in  the  countries  where  Anglo  American  operates,  conflicts  over  land  and  resource  ownership  rights  and  such  other  risk  factors  iden,fied  in  Anglo  American’s  most  recent  Annual  Report.  Forward-­‐looking  statements  should,  therefore,  be  construed  in  light  of  such  risk  factors  and  undue  reliance  should  not  be  placed  on  forward-­‐looking  statements.  These  forward-­‐looking  statements  speak  only  as  of  the  date  of  this  presenta,on.  Anglo  American  expressly  disclaims  any  obliga,on  or  undertaking  (except  as  required  by  applicable  law,  the  City  Code  on  Takeovers  and  Mergers  (the  “Takeover  Code”),  the  UK  Lis,ng  Rules,  the  Disclosure  and  Transparency  Rules  of  the  Financial  Services  Authority,  the  Lis,ngs  Requirements  of  the  securi,es  exchange  of  the  JSE  Limited  in  South  Africa,  the  SWX  Swiss  Exchange,  the  Botswana  Stock  Exchange  and  the  Namibian  Stock  Exchange  and  any  other  applicable  regula,ons)  to  release  publicly  any  updates  or  revisions  to  any  forward-­‐looking  statement  contained  herein  to  reflect  any  change  in  Anglo  American’s  expecta,ons  with  regard  thereto  or  any  change  in  events,  condi,ons  or  circumstances  on  which  any  such  statement  is  based.  Nothing  in  this  presenta,on  should  be  interpreted  to  mean  that  future  earnings  per  share  of  Anglo  American  will  necessarily  match  or  exceed  its  historical  published  earnings  per  share.  Certain  sta,s,cal  and  other  informa,on  about  Anglo  American  included  in  this  presenta,on  is  sourced  from  publicly  available  third  party  sources.  As  such  it  presents  the  views  of  those  third  par,es,  but  may  not  necessarily  correspond  to  the  views  held  by  Anglo  American.  No  Investment  Advice  This  presenta,on  has  been  prepared  without  reference  to  your  par,cular  investment  objec,ves,  financial  situa,on,  taxa,on  posi,on  and  par,cular  needs.  It  is  important  that  you  view  this  presenta,on  in  its  en,rety.  If  you  are  in  any  doubt  in  rela,on  to  these  ma;ers,  you  should  consult  your  stockbroker,  bank  manager,  solicitor,  accountant,  taxa,on  adviser  or  other  independent  financial  adviser  (where  applicable,  as  authorised  under  the  Financial  Services  and  Markets  Act  2000  in  the  UK,  or  in  South  Africa,  under  the  Financial  Advisory  and  Intermediary  Services  Act  37  of  2002.).  

DISCLAIMER

ANGLO AMERICAN OVERVIEW

4

TO BE THE LEADING GLOBAL MINING COMPANY

Pla,num  

Diamonds  

Copper  

Nickel  

Iron  ore  and  Manganese    Metallurgical  Coal    Thermal  Coal      

Corporate  office  

Key  

Representa,ve  offices  

5

Improving cost positions

Value accretive transactions

Productivity continues to improve with optimisation initiatives

Optimised and simplified portfolio

Most diversified and balanced growth pipeline

>100%

2010

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% 2015 2011 2015 2011 2015 2011 2016 2011 2015 2011

Export Iron Ore Copper Nickel Platinum Export Hard

Coking Coal

2nd half cost curve

1st half cost curve

10.6x

8.4x 8.1x

Trading multiple Luxury

Trading multiple

Diamonds

De Beers Acquisition

Capex(1) Net Equity Distribution(2) Net Acquisitions(3)

Source:  UBS  and  Capital  IQ.  Major  Diversified  Miners  from  2003  to  date  (1)  Includes  purchase  of  property,  plant  and  equipment;  and  explora,on  expenditure  (2)  Includes  issuance  and  repurchase  of  common  stock;  and  common,  special  

and  preference  dividends  paid  (3)  Includes  cash  acquisi,ons  and  dives,tures  

De Beers acquisition 2011 EV/EBITDA multiples

Longwall cutting hours – Grasstree

+28%

2010 2011 Source:  AME,  Brook  Hunt  -­‐  Wood  Mackenzie  company,  Anglo  American  Pla,num  

Medium term growth

De  Beers  assumed  to  be  fully  consolidated  in  2014  forecast  and  thereaher.  Transac,on  subject  to  regulatory  and  government  approval  

2014

(1)      Includes  Richemont,  Tiffany,  LVMH;  based  on  2011E  (2)      Includes  Petra  Diamonds,  Harry  Winston,  Gem;  based  on  2011E  (3)      Based  on  De  Beers  2011  EBITDA  

(1) (2)

(3)

2011 Underlying Earnings %

Capital allocation

66 % 47 % 49 % 58 % 65 %

35 % 35 %

9 % 14 %

(24)% (1)%

18 % 42 % 28 % 59 %

(40)% (20)%

0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 %

100 % 120 % 140 %

Future options Anglo

American Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4

50

100

>50% >75%

Investment

Consumption

Late Cycle

Other

2%

30% 40%

28%

Other

Late cycle

Consumption

Investment

DELIVERING REAL & SUSTAINABLE VALUE

6

Results  shown  before  special  items  and  remeasurements  and  include  a;ributable  share  of  associates  

(1)  Cash  capital  expenditure  includes  cash  flows  on  related  deriva,ves    

2.14 4.13

H1 2011 H2 2010 H1 2010 H2 2009 H1 2009 H2 2011

($bn) 2011 2010 change

EBITDA 13.3 12.0 11%

Operating profit 11.1 9.8 14%

Effective tax rate 28.3% 31.9%

Underlying earnings 6.1 5.0 23%

Capex (1) 5.8 5.0 15%

Net debt 1.4 7.4 (81%)

Key financials Underlying EPS ($)

5.06

FINANCIAL OVERVIEW

OUR VIEW OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

8

78%

82%

84%

85%

100%

Expressways (Km)

Steel for ship building

Urban floor space

Car output

Truck output

(1) The analysis excludes Taiwan. Source: NBS, CEIC, Anglo American Analysis

Chinese Regional Urbanisation(1) 2009 China’s expected growth 2010 to 2018

50-60% 60%-70%

70%-80% >80%

<50%

Xun River

Huang River

Yangtze River Sichuan

Heilongjiang

Jilin

Liaoning

Hebei

Shandong

Fujian

Jiangxi

Anhui

Hubei

Hunan

Guangdong

Guangxi

Shanghai

Henan

Shanxi

Hainan

Inner Mongolia

Shaanxi

Ningxia

Gansu

Qinghai

Guizhou

Yunnan

Tibet

Xinjiang

Jiangsu

Zhejiang

Tianjin

Beijing

Hong Kong Macau

Chongqing

LONG TERM DEMAND GROWTH REMAINS HEALTHY

ANGLO AMERICAN IRON ORE

10

Amapá 2011 Production 4.8 Mt

Potential 6.5 Mtpa

Reserves + Resources 238 Mt

Products Pellet Feed, Fines

Logistics Rail & Port

Product Fe Content 62 / 68%

Kumba Iron Ore 2011 Production 43.5 Mt

Product Fe Content 64-66%

Products Fines, Lump

Minas-Rio Target Prod. (Phase 1) 26.5 Mtpa

Potential Capacity > 80.0 Mtpa

Resources 5.8 Bt

Product Fe Content > 68%

Products Pellet Feed, Fines

Slurry Pipeline 100% owned

Açu Port 49% owned

Açu  Port  

525km  Slurry  Pipeline  

1  

Minas  Gerais  State  

Amapá  State  2  

Santana  Port  

Rio  de  Janeiro  State  

1  

Saldanha  Port  

2  Sishen  Mine  and  

Kolomela  

Thabazimbi  

Source:  Anglo  American  

ANGLO AMERICAN HAS A UNIQUE IRON ORE FOOTPRINT

11

•  Kumba  Iron  Ore  (KIO)  (majority  owned  by  Anglo  American)  •  Northern  Cape  province  of  South  Africa    •  One  of  the  largest  open-­‐pit  mines  in  the  world  

•  Produced  39  Mt  in  2011  

•  Very  high  quality  lump  ore  with  outstanding  physical  properSes  

Source:  Anglo  American  

ANGLO AMERICAN'S CURRENT EXPORT OPERATIONS South Africa - Sishen

12

•  Successfully  commissioned  in  2011  –  5  months  ahead  of  schedule  •  Produced  1.5  Mt  in  2011  

•  Forecast  to  produce  4-­‐5  Mt  in  2012  

•  At  full  capacity  the  mine  will  deliver  9  Mtpa  of  high  quality  seaborne  iron  ore  

•  Expected  to  operate  in  the  lower  half  of  the  cost  curve  

Source:  Anglo  American  

ANGLO AMERICAN'S CURRENT EXPORT OPERATIONS South Africa - Kolomela

13

•  Located  in  Amapá  state,  in  North-­‐East  Brazil  •  Fully  integrated  operaSon  uSlizing  shovel  and  truck,  beneficiaSon  and  rail  to  the  Amazon  port  of  Santana  

•  Produced  4.8  Mt  of  iron  ore  in  2011  

Source:  Anglo  American  

ANGLO AMERICAN'S CURRENT EXPORT OPERATIONS Brazil - Amapá

14

•  One  of  the  world’s  largest  mining  projects  •  Acquired  by  Anglo  American  in  2007-­‐2008  

•  Tier  1  asset  

•  Situated  in  an  established  iron  ore  mining  area  of  Brazil  

•  5.8  Bt  resource  •  Integrated  mine,  pipeline  and  port  operaSons  

•  Extremely  high  quality  pellet  feed  

•  Leading  cost  posiSon,  in  the  first  quarSle  of  the  cost  curve  

•  26.5  Mtpa  Phase  1  producSon  •  >80  Mtpa  potenSal  producSon  

ANGLO AMERICAN'S IRON ORE GROWTH STORY Brazil – Minas-Rio

Source:  Anglo  American  

15

PORT  •  100%  owned  by  LLX  Minas-­‐Rio  –  49%  Anglo  American;  51%  LLX  SA  

•  Anglo  American  managing  port  construcSon  

•  3,000m  port  access  bridge  completed    

•  10,000  tph  loading  capacity  •  Capesize  vessels    

•  Land  available  to  expand  the  port  and/or  downstream  operaSons  

•  Long  term  low  tariff  agreed  

PIPELINE  •  IniSal  underground  26  inch  diameter  slurry  pipeline  with  26.5Mtpa  capacity    

•  Well-­‐tested  logisScs  method  in  Brazil  built  by  highly  experienced  local  contractors    

•  Two  pump  staSons  and  one  valve  staSon,  developed  in  three  spreads  

•  Sole  use  of  525km  pipeline  corridor  with  room  for  at  least  two  pipelines  

ANGLO AMERICAN'S IRON ORE GROWTH STORY Brazil – Minas-Rio

Source:  Anglo  American  

16

•  Key  components  advancing  for  FOOS  H2  2013  •  Significant  progress  with  licenses  and  permits  

•  Engineering  and  major  equipment  purchases  substanSally  completed  

•  BeneficiaSon  plant  –  earthworks  almost  complete;  civil  works  well  advanced  

•  Pipeline  –  50%  completed  and  advancing  ahead  of  schedule  

•  FiltraSon  plant  –  ahead  of  schedule  

•  Port  –  offshore  bridge  &  iron  ore  pier  completed  

•  Prefeasibility  study  for  Phase  2  commenced  in  2011  

Sources: Anglo American,

ANGLO AMERICAN'S IRON ORE GROWTH STORY Brazil – Minas-Rio

17

•  Projects currently in implementation or approved will result in ~80 Mtpa production:

South Africa ü  Sishen ü  Thabazimbi ü  Kolomela ü  Sishen Expansion Brazil ü  Minas-Rio Phase 1 ü  Amapá

•  Ramp-up and conceptual projects could raise capacity to beyond ~150 Mtpa

ü  Further expansion in the Northern Cape ü  Minas-Rio expansion

Source:  Anglo  American  

BRAZIL  

SOUTH  AFRICA  

ANGLO AMERICAN'S IRON ORE GROWTH STORY Anglo American’s iron ore assets have the potential to produce in excess of 150mtpa of high quality iron ore

A UNIQUE PRODUCT PORTFOLIO

19

0%  

2%  

4%  

6%  

8%  

10%  

56%   58%   60%   62%   64%   66%   68%   70%  Grade  Notes:  1.  Chinese  produc,on  (rich  ore  equivalent)  inferred  from  a  small  sample  of  mines.  Source:  CRU,  AME,  Anglo  American  

Do;ed  bubble  indicates  processed  ore  

Bubble  size  indicates  an  average  produc,on  of  50  Mtpa  

China1  

Other  Africa  CIS  

North  America  

Australia  -­‐  high  quality  

Australia  -­‐  medium  quality  

India  

Brazil   Minas-­‐Rio  Phase1  

Amapá  

Sishen  

Minas-­‐Rio  expansion  

Alum

ina  +  silica  conten

t  

ANGLO AMERICAN IRON ORE – A QUALITY PROPOSITION Minas-Rio is a high grade, low contaminant expandable resource

20 Source:  Anglo  American  

Type   Products  /  CharacterisScs  

Lumps  Kumba  Premium  Lump:  Fe  –  66.3%  /Al2O3  –  1.2%/SiO2  –  2.8%    

Kumba  Premium  Fines  :  Fe  –  64.2%  /Al2O3  –  1.8%/SiO2  –  4.5%      

Kumba  Standard  Lump  :  Fe  –  64.5%  /Al2O3  –  1.5%/SiO2  –  4.8%      

Amapá  Sinter  Fines:  Fe  -­‐  58.5%  /Al2O3  –  1.8%/SiO2  –  9.5%       Sinter  Feed  

Pellet  Feed  

M-­‐R  Pellet  Feed    BF-­‐  Fe  -­‐  67.5%  /Al2O3  –  0.6%/SiO2  –  2.5%      

M-­‐R  Pellet  Feed    DR  -­‐  Fe  -­‐  68.0%  /Al2O3  –  0.5%/SiO2  –  1.3%      

Amapá  Concentrate  -­‐    Fe  -­‐  65.0%  /Al2O3  –  0.45%/SiO2  –  5.0%      

Amapá  Pellet  Feed  DR  -­‐  Fe  -­‐  68.0%  /Al2O3  –  0.3%/SiO2  –  1.0%      

Amapá  Pellet  Feed  BF  -­‐  Fe  -­‐  66.0%  /Al2O3  –  0.9%/SiO2  –  2.0%      

Benefits  

Lowest  US  in  the  Market  

Sinter  produc,vity  booster  

Very  low  RDI  /  Low  US  

Low  Al2O3  /  lower  slag  rates  

High  Fe  /  lower  fuel  consump,on  

Ultra-­‐low    SiO2  +  Al2O3  

Burden    Fe  correc,on  

Mee,ng  DR  requirements  

Matching  pelle,zers  demand  

US  =  Under  Size;  RDI  =  Reduc,on  Disintegra,on  Index;  BF  =  Blast  Furnace;  DR  =  Direct  Reduc,on  

ANGLO AMERICAN IRON ORE – QUALITY PORTFOLIO

POSITIONED FOR GROWTH

22

Unique  iron  ore  geographic  footprint  in  Brazil  and  South  Africa.  Examining  potenSal  value  adding,  high  quality  iron  ore  opportuniSes  across  the  globe.    

INORGANIC GROWTH

Source:  Anglo  American  

CONCLUSIONS •  Iron ore has a strong future

•  Large, geographically diverse footprint

• Rapidly growing production of high quality iron ore • Examining high quality, inorganic growth