Characterizing the Chesapeake Megaregion

Analyzing Future Freight Challenges in Maryland Using Freight Data Sources and theMaryland Statewide Transportation Model (MSTM)Presented by:Subrat MahapatraMaryland State Highway Administration

Presented to:Second SHRP2 Symposium onInnovation in Freight Demand Modeling and Data ImprovementOctober 22, 2013

innovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementPresentation OutlineFreight Movement in MarylandFreight Policies & Performance MeasurementFreight Supply and Demand Analysis ToolsPerformance-Based Planning and Programming ApproachData and Research Needs

innovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementAcknowledgementsSabyasachee Mishra, University of Memphis

Mark Radovic, Gannett Fleming, Inc

Keith Kucharek, MD SHA

Debbie Bowden, MDOT

Janie Tiedeman, URS Corp

innovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementFreight Movement in Maryland

innovations in freight demand modeling and data improvement

Small mid-atlantic state on the east coast of US (42nd in area)

Ranked 19th in Population, 5th in Density (5.8 million people, 2010)

US in microcosm with diverse geography

39 tons of freight per person terminates in Maryland every yearAbout Marylandinnovations in freight demand modeling and data improvement5About Maryland Department of TransportationMDOT and its five modals oversee all aspects of major transportation in MD.

SHA operates, maintains and rebuilds the numbered, non-toll routes.

Two major transit systems: MTA in Baltimore and WMATA in the DC region offer great transit choices.

MDTA owns and operates the toll roads and bridges.

Port of Baltimore is the fastest growing port in US .

BWI Airport served 22.6 million people in 2012.

MVA takes care of vehicle licensing and registration

innovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementFreight Movement is a critical emphasis area for MDs economy and vitalityThrust at federal, state and local levelMarylands freight transportation is estimatedTo grow about 105% by 20351.4 billion of total tons4.98 trillion of $ value transfer (108% increase from 2006)Sustainability of MD corridors to meet the future demand Freight Movement in Maryland

2007

2040Freight Peak Period Congestioninnovations in freight demand modeling and data improvement7Freight Movement in MarylandMaryland has a diversified freight cargo profile. Freight activity in Maryland is expected to double by 2030. * Northeast: CT, ME, MA, NH, NJ, NY, RI,VT Southeast: FL, GA, NC, SCWithin MarylandLeaving MarylandArriving in MarylandThrough Freight*Weight (million of tons)135(146)84(105)91(136)52(98)Value (billion$)92(126)113(186) 169(265)177(338)Value/Weight (Thousand $/ton)0.7(0.86)1.3(1.77)1.9(1.95)3.4(3)Note: 2030 values are in parenthesisinnovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementExternal and Internal Freight by ModeFreight Movement in Marylandinnovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementMaryland FAF Zones and Distribution Centers by County

Source: Port of Baltimore

Freight Movement in Marylandinnovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementFreight Policies and Performance Measurement

innovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementFreight Policy and PerformanceMaryland's economy moves on a balanced freight network.

Ensure that highways, railways, waterways, and airports can handle current level and anticipated growth of goods movement

The Statewide Freight Plan provides a lynchpin for all of the modal freight plans SHA/MDTAs Freight Implementation Plan MTAs freight rail Strategic PlanPort of Baltimore Business Plan

Maryland Freight System Annual Report

innovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementFreight Policy & Performance Broader Questions

What is the projected demand and how to accommodate it? (increased population, economic activity, new distribution centers etc.)

Investments in multiple modes (offer choices)

Improve connectivity between freight modes (distribution and transfer center locations)Freight Flows (In/Out/Through MD)Level of Transportation InvestmentsLimited Funding Scenario invest in low cost high benefit projects strategically focus on reliability thru ITS, incident mgmt.

High Funding Scenario (System Expansion)

innovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementFreight Policy & Performance Levels of Decision-MakingPolicy Levelfreight modes and mode sharesbroader impacts of economy and freight flows location of terminals and distribution centerstransportation infrastructure needs

Project Leveldesign and implement projects to meet current/ future needs capacity enhancements

Operational hours and routes for safe and efficient operationssmall scale geometric improvementsbottleneck reduction

innovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementTransportation Infrastructure & PerformanceAuto and Truck VMT Trends in MD

2012 Annual User Costsinnovations in freight demand modeling and data improvement

Transportation Infrastructure & Performance

MobilityreliabilityBottlenecks

innovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementFreight Supply/ Demand Analysis Tools

innovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementAnalysis Tools - Statewide Transportation Model

Internal TripsTrips to/ from MDThrough Trips

Multi-layer travel demand model working at national, statewide and regional levels to forecast and analyze key measures of transportation system performance.

NationalStatewideLocalMSTM 3-Tiered Approachinnovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementFreight Modeling ProcessBi-level modeling of freight National level (flows in/ out/ thru MD) Statewide level (flows inside MD)

FHWA Freight Analysis Framework 3 Commodity Flow Data Used

Commodity Flows allocated to sub-county level origin-destinations

Flows on highways converted from TONS to TRUCKS using payload factors

The model distinguishesCommercial VehiclesMedium-Heavy Duty Trucks Heavy-Heavy Duty Trucks

innovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementFreight Modeling ProcessTruck trips are generated byIndustrial EmploymentRetail EmploymentOffice EmploymentHouseholds

Employment and Households by zones are used as truck generators, and a gravity model is used to distribute truck trips.

Long distance trucks, local trucks and commercial vehicles assigned to the highway network by time of day

Truck Productions

innovations in freight demand modeling and data improvement20MSTM Applications Freight MovementPerformance Measure% Increase (2007-2030)Auto Trips12%Truck Trips61%Vehicle Miles of Travel34%Vehicle Hours of Delay67%Congested Lane Miles64%Through Travel (E-E)52%YearVMT (million)% Truck VMTAll VehiclesTrucks200714911.47.6203019418.29.4 Truck VMT will increase by 61% Truck Through Trips will increase from 23% to 34% Truck Hours of Delay will increase by 70%

innovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementMSTM Applications Freight Mode ChoiceWithin MDLeaving MDArriving in MDGroup 1Group 2Group 3Logistic regression models for different OD and Commodity Groups

Identify parameters and elasticity to understand supply/ demand impactsFromToFromToFromTo1Live animals fish3315Coal3329Printed prods112Cereal grains3316Crude petroleum3330Textiles leather223Other ag prods3317Gasoline3331Nonmetal min. prods234Animal feed3318Fuel oils3332Base metals225Meat seafood3319Coal-n.e.c.2233Articles-base metal126Milled grain prods3320Basic chemicals1234Machinery227Other foodstuffs3321Pharmaceuticals2135Electronics228Alcoholic beverages3322Fertilizers2336Motorized vehicles219Tobacco prods3323Chemical prods1137Transport equip2310Building stone3324Plastics rubber2138Precision instruments1211Natural sands3325Logs3239Furniture3212Gravel3326Wood prods3240Misc. mfg. prods2213Nonmetallic minerals2227Newsprint paper1341Waste scrap3314Metallic ores1328Paper articles2243Mixed freight22innovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementMSTM Applications Freight ScenariosThe statewide model can be applied to study a variety on policy scenarios, such asPricingZoningInfrastructure improvementsChanges in economyExternal variables

Origins of Trucks Using I-95at Susquehanna River

Donnelly, R. & Moeckel, R. (2013) Freight mode choice models: a meta-analysis, Transportation Research Part E, in preparation.

Growth in Port of Baltimoreinnovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementPort of Baltimore Access Improvements Study

Use of traffic simulation model to evaluate local and system level impacts of freight projectsSystem EfficiencyEffective for phasing/ staging of projectsBefore/ After Analysisinnovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementPerformance Based Planningand Programming ApproachesPROJECT IDENTIFICATION/IMPLEMENTATION

- SHORT TERM PROJECTS (local/ spot improvements)

- LONG TERM PROJECTS (corridor wide/ regional improvements)

innovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementFreight Planning ProcessIdentify freight hot spotsIdentify projects to address themScreen the projects to determine which onesare feasibleCreate short andlong term plansIncorporate intoSHA process

Stakeholder InputCounty Priority LettersHighwayNeeds InventoryScreening CriteriaMDOTStatewideFreight Plan

Previous StudiesEvaluationConceptsShort-Term Implementation PlanLong-Term ImplementationPlanPotentialImprovementProjectsFreight Implementation Planning Processinnovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementShort-Term Implementations for Truck TravelAnnual Average Daily Traffic

Annual Average Daily Truck Traffic

Percentage Trucks

Truck related crashes

Proximity to distribution and intermodal centers

Truck Parking Locations

Safety, congestion, geometric and community impacts from stakeholders

Annual Average Daily Truck Traffic

Freight Hot Spots High Scoresinnovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementSome of the data we gathered and layered in GIS include:Truck crashes, AADT, AADTT, Truck percentage of AADTT compared to AADT, Proximity of the freight routes to distribution centers, truck parking locations and areas of concern identified by the stakeholders we interviewed.27GIS Spatial AnalysisMigrate data into centralized location, classify each factor on a scale 0 - 4Assign each roadway segment a score using weighted factors Review hot spots for State Routes, US Routes, and Interstates

innovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementOngoing and Upcoming StepsContinue working on various MDOT/ SHA Freight InitiativesPolicy AnalysisIdentify bottlenecks and analyze improvementsTrack transportation system performance

4. I-95 SB Welcome Center project funded & under construction Work with Modals/ MPO/ locals and other stakeholders to support modeling and analysis needs for freight transportation decision-makinginnovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementData and Research Needsfrom a State DOT PerspectiveUse distribution center and truck flow data

Freight mode choice analysis capabilities

Looking at the supply chain aspects (door to door)

Incorporate reliability elements in decision-making

innovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementData and Research Needs - DOT StandpointHow do we identify and define freight bottlenecks?

How do we quantify impacts of transportation investments on freight travel?

What is the freight industry telling us and how it impacts transportation decision-making?

How can we improve our policies, programs and projects for safe, reliable and efficient freight movement Together, Freight Movesinnovations in freight demand modeling and data improvementTogether, Freight MovesThank You !!Contact Information:Subrat MahapatraOffice of Planning and Preliminary EngineeringMD State Highway AdministrationBaltimore, MD

smahapatra@sha.state.md.us 410-545-5649innovations in freight demand modeling and data improvement