Analytical Scouting Report of the Sacramento Kings

Using Player Tracking Data to Advance Scout the Sacramento Kings Eric Goodman [email protected] Data as of 1/13/2015

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Index Introduction Understanding Heat Maps Sacramento Kings Team Overview Team Offensive/Defensive Metrics Player Offensive/Defensive Metrics

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What this document contains: A team and player level analysis of the Sacramento Kings offense and defense using player tracking data from SportVU

Heat maps for both team and player shooting efficiency/volume by court location, with accompanying analysis Heat maps for both team and player opponent shooting efficiency/volume by court location with accompanying analysis Shot Clock based analytical insights Shot tendencies (jump shot, drive, post move) for both team and individual players Defensive skill at defending shot tendencies (jump shot, drive, post move) for both team and individual players Assorted Skill Metrics (fouls drawn rate, etc.) for both offense and defense for each individual player Video clips are hyperlinked where applicable

Where the data is from: Data is scraped from the shots dashboards on stats.nba.com

Data is for the 2014-15 season only and is current as of all games played on 1/13/2015 Small amount of data cleanup was required

About the author: Graduated with honors from Johns Hopkins University in 2011 Currently work in management consulting in New York City Advanced understanding of current research on basketball analytics Interest in finding opportunities within basketball operations

Introduction

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1) The heat (color) of the points on the map is used to evaluate the shooting efficiency of a player/team relative to how well the league shoots from that region on average. Dark red is representative of a well above average shooter, faded green is representative of a well below average shooter.

2) The size of each point is representative of the number of field goals taken from a given location.

3) The map is divided into nine distinct regions (left/right above-the-break 3-pt, left/right elbow above-the-break, left/right corner 3-pt, left/right baseline between 3-pt and paint, paint below-the-break).

4) Upon request I can provide an interactive version accessible via mobile device which allows the user to click on points and look at the underlying data, as well as filter on specific players/teams.

5) Highly customizable I can add/remove regions and change dimensions of regions, changes colors, etc.

Understanding Heat Maps

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How to interpret shooting heat map for Ben McLemore: Because there are more dots, and larger dots, in 3-pt range than in the mid-range

regions, you can conclude that he takes more shots from 3-pt than mid-range. Below average shooter from corner 3-pt regions, average in left above-the-break

3-pt region, well above average in right above-the-break 3-pt region. Above average finisher in the paint region.

Sacramento Kings Team Overview (16-22, 12th in Western Conference)

Notable Facts

Won 2 of their last 4 games after losing 10 of their prior 13.

Highest Free Throw Attempt Rate in the NBA, nearly 14% higher than next closest team (Heat). Individuals at multiple positions have high FTAr.

Fourth worst team in terms of turnover rate (16.4 TO/100 possessions). Opponents average 18.0 points per game off Kings turnovers.

Play a relatively fast pace, ranking 10th in the league at 97 possessions per 48 minutes. They also rank 10th in fast break points at 14.4 per game.

Rank 6th in the league in Points in the Paint per game at 44.7 points per game.

Effective FG% [3-pt FG weighted 1.5] (rank)

Offensive Reb Rate [OREB/REB Chances] (rank)

Turnover Rate [TO per 100 poss] (rank)

Free Throw Attempt Rate [FTA/FGA] (rank)

Kings Four Factors 49.3% (19th) 27.5% (8th) 16.4 (27th) .378 (1st)

Opponent Four Factors 49.5% (13th) 24.4% (10th) 12.7 (30th) 0.286 (14th)

Player FTA Rate

Reggie Evans (F) 54 FTA / 77 FGA (0.70)

Omri Casspi (F) 76 FTA / 126 FGA (0.60)

DeMarcus Cousins (C) 222 FTA / 454 FGA (0.49)

Ramon Sessions (G) 65 FTA / 139 FGA (0.47)

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Team Notes: 49.7% of the Kings field goals are in the paint region below-the-break, 3rd highest in NBA One of the worst teams in the NBA at shooting the 3-pt shot from the corner 7th lowest in NBA from right

(34%), 2nd lowest in NBA from left (31%) 13.7% of the Kings field goal attempts are from above-the-break 3-pt range, the 3rd lowest in the NBA. Average shooting efficiency relative to rest of NBA at all mid-range regions

Team Offensive Metrics

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Shot Clock Insights (Offense)

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The most notable statistical insight for the Kings with respect to their shot clock metrics on offense is their tendency to shoot more 3-pt field goals in the last 8 seconds of the shot clock than the period with 9-24 seconds remaining. In situations in which the shot clock is on:

The Kings have the 2nd highest percent increase in percentage of field goals taken from 3-pt range in the last 8 seconds remaining on the shot clock (from 16.5% with 9-24 seconds left on shot clock to 22.2% with 0-8 seconds left on the shot clock, a 34% percent increase in likelihood to take a field goal attempt from 3-pt range).

This is notable because not all teams with a similar percentage of overall FGA from 3-PT range have as big of an increase as the Kings in this area. For example, the Washington Wizards take 18.0% of their overall FGA from 3-PT range, 18.3% with 9-24 seconds left on the shot clock, and 17.3 with 0-8 seconds left on the shot clock.

On average the NBA has a 5.6% percent increase (from 25.4% to 26.8%) in this area.

38% 34%

28% 27% 27% 25%

22% 22%

15% 12%

9% 9% 8%

0%

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15%

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Team Name

Percent Increase in FGA from 3-Pt Range in last 8 seconds of shot clock (exc. shot clock "off" situations)

NBA avg = 5.5%

Team Notes: The Kings are a well above average team defensively on the left side of the court. They are 4th best in NBA

defending the left corner 3-pt shot, where opponents only shoot 31% compared to the league average of 38%

The Kings are the 3rd best in NBA defending the 3-pt shot above the left break, holding opponents to 29%. Opponents have shot above the league average against the Kings from the right corner 3-pt area Per the chart on the right, the Kings are a below average team on defending drives to the basket, as

opponents have a 65% field goal percentage on drives, relative to the league average of 58%

Team Defensive Metrics

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Shot Clock Insights (Defense)

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The most notable statistical insight for the Kings with respect to their shot clock metrics on defense is their tendency to allow opponents to shoot more 3-pt field goals in the last 8 seconds of the shot clock than the period with 9-24 seconds remaining. In situations in which the shot clock is on:

Kings opponents have the highest percent increase in percentage of field goals taken from 3-pt range in the last 8 seconds remaining on the shot clock (from 26.2% with 9-24 seconds left on shot clock to 31.2% with 0-8 seconds left on the shot clock, a 19.1% percent increase in likelihood to take a field goal attempt from 3-pt range).

On average the NBA has a 5.5% percent increase (from 25.4% to 26.8%) in this area.

19% 19% 18%

17% 17% 16% 16% 15%

13%

11% 11% 9% 9%

8%

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25%

SacramentoKings

PhoenixSuns

IndianaPacers

San AntonioSpurs

BrooklynNets

MilwaukeeBucks

DallasMavericks

DetroitPistons

NewOrleansPelicans

TorontoRaptors

Utah Jazz Los AngelesLakers

GoldenState

Warriors

Miami Heat

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Team Name

Percent Increase in Opponent FGA from 3-Pt Range in last 8 seconds of shot clock (exc. shot clock "off" situations)

NBA avg = 5.5%

Individual Offensive/Defensive Metrics

Rudy Gay DeMarcus Cousins Darren Collison Ben McLemore Jason Thompson Carl Landry Omri Casspi Derrick Williams Reggie Evans Ramon Sessions Nik Stauskas Ray McCallum Ryan Hollins

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Rudy Gay (F) Ht/Wt: 6-8/230 pounds Experience: 8 years From: Connecticut

Games Played /Started

MPG PPG RPG APG

36/36 35.6 20.4* 6.0 4.1*

Metric Value League Rank for Position

Foul Drawn Rate 3.85 fouls drawn / 36 min

46/203 (rank closer to 1 = more fouls drawn)

Fouls Committed Rate

2.26 fouls / 36 min

33/203 (rank closer to 1 = fewer fouls committed)

Free Throw Shooting Perc.

85.5% 18/203 (rank closer to 1 = better FT%)

Defensive Block Rate

0.53 blocks / 36 min

111/203 (rank closer to 1 = higher block rate)

Turnover Rate 2.69 TO / 36 min 192/203 (rank closer to 1 = lower turnover rate)

Percentage of FG Assisted

35.8% 8/203 (rank closer to 1 = lower % assisted)

* Career High (if applicable)

Skill Metrics

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Rudy Gay (F) Offense

Player Notes: 8th highest spread percentage in NBA (if each square on court is 1ft x 1ft, Gay has shot from more of

those squares than all but eight people Bryant, C. Anthony, K. Walker, Ellis, Curry, Aldridge, Thompson) Above average shooter from 3-pt range above-the-break from both sides of the court Top 25% of NBA forwards in drawing fouls (see previous slide 3.85 fouls / 36 min). Has the third highest

free-throw percentage (85.5%) amongst that top 25% Only 16% of field goal attempts come on drives, compared to 24% for the average forward

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Rudy Gay (F) Defense

Player Notes: Opponents shoot 70% on drives when Rudy Gay is the primary defender, the average player in the

NBA converts on just 58% of drives. Above average defender from all mid-range regions Gay appears to have trouble defending the corner 3 on the right side, but not on the left side, where

opponents shoot well below the league average.

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DeMarcus Cousins (C) Ht/Wt: 6-11/270 pounds Experience: 4 years From: Kentucky


MPG PPG RPG APG

27/27 33.2* 24.2* 12.4* 3.2*


Foul Drawn Rate 9.49 fouls drawn /36 min



4.66 fouls / 36 min





1.89 blocks / 36 min






Skill Metrics

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DeMarcus Cousins (C) Offense

Player Notes: Average shooter under the basket and in the left baseline zone, takes 76.8% of his field goals

from these two regions. Below average shooter from both the left and right elbows. It is important to note this is the

case because he is often positioned there to draw post defenders away from the basket, allowing teammates to make cuts toward the hoop

Drives for FG attempts more frequently than most centers in the league (see chart on right). Per prior slide, draws fouls at a higher rate than any center (9.49 fouls drawn per 36 min)

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DeMarcus Cousins (C) Defense

Player Notes: Ability to defend out to the elbow is well above average (for the league, and especially for

a center) opponents shoot particularly poorly from the elbow when Cousins is the closest defender. He is one of just 8 NBA players who is holding opponents to under 30% in both regions, and the only Center (minimum 7 opponent FGA from each region)

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Darren Collison (G) Ht/Wt: 6-0/175 pounds Experience: 5 years From: UCLA


MPG PPG RPG APG

35/35 35.2* 16.6* 3.2* 5.9*


Foul Drawn Rate 3.73 fouls drawn /36 min



2.12 fouls/36 min





0.33 blocks/36 min






Skill Metrics

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Darren Collison (G) Offense

Player Notes: Top 12% of NBA in terms of spread percentage (if each square on court is 1ft x 1ft, hes shot

from more of those squares than 88% of all NBA players). Better shooter from 3-pt on the right side of the court than the left side of the court. One of 15 players in NBA shooting at or above 48% in both elbow regions clip here

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Darren Collison (G) Defense

Player Notes: Struggles to defend players in the post, both on drives and on post shots (hook shots, dunks) Defends well on the 3-pt shot above the right break and on baseline non-3pt shots Opponents shoot above the league average the corner 3-pt regions on either side of court

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Ben McLemore (G) Ht/Wt: 6-5/195 pounds Experience: 1 year From: Kansas


MPG PPG RPG APG

38/38 33.1* 11.7* 3.1* 1.6*


Foul Drawn Rate 1.68 fouls/36 min



3.04 fouls/36 min





0.24 blocks/36 min






Skill Metrics

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Ben McLemore (G) Offense

Player Notes: Of the 66 guards with at least 100 shots attempts in the paint, only Wes Matthews, Goran

Dragic and Steph Curry have a higher shooting percentage in that area. Good awareness in the region here is a good example of this on a fast break

Above average shooter on 3-pt field goals above-the-break from both sides of court Well below average shooter on 3-pt field goals in the corner regions on both sides of the court Per prior slide, 75.6% of his field goals are assisted, only 15% of guards have a higher rate

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Ben McLemore (G) Defense

Player Notes: Above average defender on 3pt shots above-the-break one of only 25 players in the NBA to

hold opponents below 30% in each of the above-the-break 3-pt regions Below average defender in the paint region below the break.

Below average defender on opponent drives and opponent post shots.

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Jason Thompson (F) Ht/Wt: 6-11/250 pounds Experience: 6 years From: Rider


MPG PPG RPG APG

37/36 25.2 5.3 6.4 0.9





4.49 fouls/36 min





0.90 blocks/36 min






Skill Metrics

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Jason Thompson (F) Offense

Player Notes: Top-10 Forward/Center towards the right baseline. In that zone he shoots 67%. Above average shooter from the zones on the right side of the court. Below average shooter from his left, especially towards the baseline. In that zone he shoots 17%. Below average scorer in the post at 50% (compared to league average of 54% in that region)

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Jason Thompson (F) Defense

Player Notes: Average to below average shot defender in most regions on the court. Opponents are shooting 57% on corner 3-pt shots from the right when he is the closest defender Commits 4.49 fouls per 36 minutes, meaning he fouls at a higher rate than 78% of NBA forwards Slightly above average shot defender in the paint and an above average defender on post type

scoring opportunities (dunks, tip-ins, hook shots) per the chart on the right.

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Carl Landry (F) Ht/Wt: 6-9/248 pounds Experience: 7 years From: Purdue


MPG PPG RPG APG

38/0 18.7 8.2 4.4 0.5





4.39 fouls/36 min





0.58 blocks/36 min






Skill Metrics

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Carl Landry (F) Offense

Player Notes: Efficient to Above Average efficiency scorer from most areas on the court Particularly efficient from the left elbow and right baseline zones Does not attempt 3-pt field goals

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Carl Landry (F) Defense

Player Notes: Extremely efficient defender against drives (see chart on right) opponents shoot 46% on drives with

Landry as the primary defender compared to 58% otherwise Very efficient defender in the post, opponents shoot 44% in the region, a -10% delta from the NBA

average and -19% percent change from the NBA average Below average to very below average defender on shots above-the-break

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Omri Casspi (F) Ht/Wt: 6-9/225 pounds Experience: 5 years From: Israel


MPG PPG RPG APG

25/2 18.2 7.9 3.6 1.4*





2.93 fouls/36 min





0.48 blocks/36 min






Skill Metrics

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Omri Casspi (F) Offense

Player Notes: 84% of FGA are within the key. This is higher than 93% of guards and forwards. Drives to the basket frequently, 48% of field goal attempts are on drives A well below average shooter from 3-pt, will occasionally take 3-pt shots (3 for 15 this season). Draws fouls at a higher rate than 69% of NBA forwards (2.93 fouls per 36 minutes).

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Omri Casspi (F) Defense

Player Notes: Above average defender on post type shots (dunks, hooks) but weak defender on drives to the basket

(opponents shoot 69% against Casspi on drives, league average is 58%)

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Derrick Williams (F) Ht/Wt: 6-8/240 pounds Experience: 3 years From: Arizona


MPG PPG RPG APG

33/1 16.4 6.6 2.5 0.4





1.64 fouls/36 min





0.14 blocks/36 min






Skill Metrics

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Derrick Williams (F) Offense

Player Notes: Highly efficient shooter from the left corner three and from the left the corner elbow Well below shooter from the above-the-break 3-pt area on the left Slightly above average finisher in the paint

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Derrick Williams (F) Defense

Player Notes: One of the worst defenders in the league in the areas inside the paint below the break and

on the left elbow. Opponents shoot 83% against Williams on driving field goal attempts, second highest in the

NBA for a rotation player (Ramon Sessions is first), and highest for a rotation forward. 6th lowest foul rate in the league among 203 forwards (1.64 fouls per 36 minutes),

combination of low foul rate and poor shot defense due to lack of aggressive defending

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Reggie Evans (F) Ht/Wt: 6-8/245 pounds Experience: 12 years From: Iowa


MPG PPG RPG APG

23/5 18.4 4.2 7.0 0.6





4.60 fouls/36 min





0.34 blocks/36 min






Skill Metrics

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Reggie Evans (F) Offense

Player Notes: Rarely takes shots outside of the paint, and is a well below average shooter in that area (46%) Relative to other forwards, takes Jump Shots nearly half as frequently, majority of scoring attempts

are on layups

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Reggie Evans (F) Defense

Player Notes: Spotty defender in most regions of the court Opponents are shooting 63% against him in the paint below the break Per Skill Metrics slide, is foul prone averages 4.60 fouls per 36 minutes, a foul rate higher than

79.8% of NBA forwards

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Ramon Sessions (G) Ht/Wt: 6-3/190 pounds Experience: 7 years From: Nevada-Reno


MPG PPG RPG APG

25/3 17.1 6.1 1.8 2.5





2.19 fouls/36 min





0.00 blocks/36 min






Skill Metrics

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Ramon Sessions (G) Offense

Player Notes: Shooting a career worst 35.3% from the field this season (next worse season was 39.8%) In the bottom 10% of the league in terms of ability to finish at the rim. Per previous slide, draws fouls at a high rate (4.55 fouls per 36 min, top 1/3 of all guards)

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Ramon Sessions (G) Defense

Player Notes: Worst player in the league in terms of defense on opponent drives opponents shoot 87%

against Sessions on driving field goal attempts Above average defender on the right side of the court except in the 3-pt corner Slightly below average defender above the left break

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Nik Stauskus (G) Ht/Wt: 6-5/205 pounds Experience: Rookie From: Michigan


MPG PPG RPG APG

38/0 14.1* 3.6* 1.1* 0.7*





3.20 fouls/36 min





0.63 blocks/36 min






Skill Metrics

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Nik Stauskus (G) Offense

Player Notes: Struggling in his rookie season shooting the basketball from most regions on the court Well below average shooter from 3-pt range on the right side, especially above-the-break Very rarely drives or posts up, 85% of field goal attempts are jump shots (see chart on right below) Per previous slide, 76.1% of his field goals are assisted, only 15% of NBA guards have a higher figure.

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Nik Stauskus (G) Defense

Player Notes: Defends jump shots well in the post, but is a poor defender on opponent drives and on post up type

shots Weak defender from the right side relative to the left, struggles mightily to defend the corner 3 pt on

the right side. Per prior slide, in upper 1/3 of all guards for rate of fouls committed (3.20 fouls per 36 minutes).

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Ray McCallum (G) Ht/Wt: 6-3/190 pounds Experience: 1 year From: Detroit


MPG PPG RPG APG

25/0 14.1 3.8 1.8* 1.5





2.63 fouls/36 min





0.44 blocks/36 min






Skill Metrics

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Ray McCallum (G) Offense

Player Notes: Per previous slide, has seen an increase in minutes played since mid-December Struggling from most regions on the court, only hot region from which he has taken more than 5

shots is the right baseline region, where he shoots 50% Below average free throw shooter for a guard at 64.3% (ranks 158/196 for guards)

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Ray McCallum (G) Defense

Player Notes: Very weak interior defender, opponents have had success driving against McCallum Struggles to guard baseline field goals. Above average defender from 3-pt above the left break and from the left elbow

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Ryan Hollins (C) Ht/Wt: 7-0/240 pounds Experience: 8 years From: UCLA


MPG PPG RPG APG

24/7 9.0 2.7 2.3 0.3





5.97 fouls/36 min





1.33 blocks/36 min


Turnover Rate 2.176TO / 36 min

29/56 (rank closer to 1 = lower turnover rate)




Skill Metrics

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Ryan Hollins (C) Offense

Player Notes: Plays sparingly and has half-a-dozen DNPs. Per previous slide, only played consistent minutes when

DeMarcus Cousins was out with an illness. 24 of his 33 shot attempts this season (72.7%) are layups, tip-ins or dunks.

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Ryan Hollins (C) Defense

Player Notes: As stated on his Skills Metric slide, he is one of the most frequent foulers in the NBA, committing

5.97 fouls per 36 minutes (higher than 44 of 56 centers) Not a particularly adept shot blocker for a center at 1.33 blocks per 36 minutes (lower than 37 of 56

centers)

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Analytical Scouting Report of the Sacramento Kings