Agricultural commoditiesdata.daff.gov.au/.../AgCommodities2013.No2_Ver1.0.0_lr.pdf · From 2013 ABARES is producing papers profiling agricultural, fisheries and forestry activities

Agricultural commodities

Research by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

JUNE QUARTER 2013

© Commonwealth of Australia 2013

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Cataloguing data ABARES 2013, Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2013, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra.

ISSN 189-5619 (printed) ISSN 189-5629 (online) ISBN 978-1-74323-138-8 (printed) ISBN 978-1-74323-139-5 (online) ABARES project 43006

Internet Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2013 is available at daff.gov.au/abares/publications.

Contact Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)

Postal address GPO Box 1563 Canberra ACT 2601 Switchboard +61 2 6272 2010 Facsimile +61 2 6272 2001 Email [email protected] Web daff.gov.au/abares

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The Australian Government acting through the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry represented by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, has exercised due care and skill in preparing and compiling the information and data in this publication. Notwithstanding, the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, ABARES, its employees and advisers disclaim all liability, including liability for negligence, for any loss, damage, injury, expense or cost incurred by any person as a result of accessing, using or relying upon any of the information or data in this publication to the maximum extent permitted by law.

Economic overview 7

Agriculture 23

Crops

Wheat 24

Coarse grains 30

Oilseeds 38

Sugar 46

Cotton 54

Livestock

Beef and veal 64

Sheep meat 80

Wool 86

Dairy 91

Boxes

Sugar reforms in the European Union 49

Cotton industry in Brazil 57

Australian beef and veal exports to China 71

Live animal exports 74

Statistical tables 99

Report extracts 142

ABARES contacts 147

Contents

ABARES is delivering commodity forecasts, research and analysis directly to rural and regional Australia again in 2013.

Promoting discussion on industry productivity, community vitality and environmental sustainability, the 2013 conferences will balance national and regional perspectives; focus on the future; and emphasise agricultural, fisheries and forestry strategies that work in a context of economic volatility and climatic variability.

ABARES invites collaboration from regional, state and national agencies to focus on industries and issues relevant to each region.

Delegates from businesses, government, and the community will discuss industry trends, access forecasts and other information, make new contacts in their community and be exposed to new ideas while gaining an understanding of global issues that affect their region.

From 2013 ABARES is producing papers profiling agricultural, fisheries and forestry activities for 49 regions across Australia. These regional profiles can be accessed from the ABARES website.

Regional Outlook conferences 2013Future food, future farming

For inquiries and to register your interest contact

Anna Carr Director, Research Engagement and OutlookPhone +61 2 6272 2287Email [email protected]

daff.gov.au/abares/regional

2013 locations and dates

Tasmania Hobart 1 May

Victoria Cardinia 2 May

Queensland Townsville 12 June

South Australia Coonawarra 30 July

Western Australia Northam 1 August

New South Wales Tamworth 4 September

Northern Territory Darwin 10 October

Economic overview

8 ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 3 no. 2 • June quarter 2013

Economic overviewPatrick Hamshere and Jenny Eather

• Following growth of 3.2 per cent in 2012, world economic growth is assumed to remain subdued at 3.2 per cent in 2013, improving to 3.9 per cent in 2014.

• Despite moderating recently, emerging economies, particularly China and India, are expected to continue driving world economic growth.

• Economic growth in OECD economies is assumed to remain slow, reflecting weakness in many European economies and reduced public spending in the United States.

• European economies remain at risk of further weakening, with negative consequences for growth in other economies.

Global economic growth to remain subdued in 2013Global economic growth has been relatively subdued since the beginning of 2013. Activity in emerging economies, particularly in Asia, continues to underpin world economic growth, while uncertainty remains for the OECD economic outlook.

World economic growth

%

a ABARES assumption.

–1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2014a20122010200820062004200220001998

9

Economic overview

ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 3 no. 2 • June quarter 2013

Demand in OECD economies is assumed to remain weak in the short term. Continued weakness in housing and labour markets is expected to be a key constraint to any significant recovery in consumer spending. In addition, fiscal consolidation in a number of countries, especially the United States and some European countries, is expected to detract from growth.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, world economic growth is assumed to average 3.2 per cent in 2013 and improve to around 3.9 per cent in 2014. For OECD economies as a whole, economic growth is assumed to be around 1.2 per cent in 2013, before strengthening modestly to 1.9 per cent in 2013. Some Western European economies remain at risk of weakening economic performance, which could have flow-on effects to growth prospects in other countries, especially in Europe.

For emerging economies, the short-term outlook remains generally positive. Relatively strong domestic demand in these economies is expected to largely offset weakened export performance in response to subdued growth in developed economies. There is a downside risk to economic performance in countries with strong trade links to Western Europe, particularly the Russian Federation, Ukraine and those in Eastern Europe and South-East Asia. For developing economies as a whole, economic growth is assumed to average 5.5 per cent in 2013 and 5.9 per cent in 2014, compared with 5.6 per cent in 2012.

Regional economic growth

%world

Russian Federation,Ukraine, Eastern Europe

Latin America

non-OECD Asia

OECD

20122013a

2014a

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8


10

Economic overview


Key macroeconomic assumptionsKey macroeconomic assumptionsKeymacroeconomicassumptions

ld

y pWorld unit 2011 2012 2013 a 2014 aEconomic growthOECD % 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.9Economic growthOECD % 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.9United States % 1 8 2 2 2 0 2 5United States % 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.5Japan % 0 6 2 0 1 3 1 0Japan % – 0.6 2.0 1.3 1.0W t E % 1 4 0 3 0 0 1 2Western Europe % 1.4 – 0.3 0.0 1.2– Germany % 3.1 0.9 0.6 1.5y– France % 1.7 0.0 – 0.1 0.9 France % 1.7 0.0 0.1 0.9– United Kingdom % 0.9 0.2 0.7 1.5– United Kingdom % 0.9 0.2 0.7 1.5– Italy % 0 4 – 2 4 – 1 5 0 5– Italy % 0.4 – 2.4 – 1.5 0.5Korea Rep of % 3 6 2 0 2 5 3 5Korea, Rep. of % 3.6 2.0 2.5 3.5New Zealand % 1 4 2 5 2 7 2 6New Zealand % 1.4 2.5 2.7 2.6

Developing countries % 6.7 5.6 5.5 5.9Developing countries % 6.7 5.6 5.5 5.9– non‐OECD Asia % 7.8 6.6 6.7 7.1– non‐OECD Asia % 7.8 6.6 6.7 7.1

South East Asia b % 4 5 6 1 6 0 5 6 South‐East Asia b % 4.5 6.1 6.0 5.6Chi % 9 3 7 8 7 3 7 6 China c % 9.3 7.8 7.3 7.6Tai an % 4 1 1 3 3 0 3 9 Taiwan % 4.1 1.3 3.0 3.9Si Singapore % 5.2 1.3 2.0 5.1g p

India % 7.7 4.0 5.8 6.5 India % 7.7 4.0 5.8 6.5– Latin America % 4.6 3.0 3.4 3.9 Latin America % 4.6 3.0 3.4 3.9Russian Federation % 4.3 3.4 3.4 3.8Russian Federation % 4.3 3.4 3.4 3.8Ukraine % 5 2 0 2 0 0 2 8Ukraine % 5.2 0.2 0.0 2.8Eastern Europe % 5 2 1 6 2 2 2 8Eastern Europe % 5.2 1.6 2.2 2.8W ld d % 4 0 3 2 3 2 3 9World d % 4.0 3.2 3.2 3.9

InflationUnited States % 3 2 2 1 1 8 1 8InflationUnited States % 3.2 2.1 1.8 1.8

Interest ratesUS prime rate e % 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3US prime rate e % 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3

A t li i 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14Australia unit 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 a 2013–14 aEconomic growth % 2.4 3.4 3.0 2.75Economic growth % 2.4 3.4 3.0 2.75Inflation % 3.1 2.3 2.4 2.5Inflation % 3.1 2.3 2.4 2.5Interest rates g % 6 6 6 2 5 3 5 1Interest rates g % 6.6 6.2 5.3 5.1

Australian exchange ratesAustralian exchange ratesUS$/A$ 0.99 1.03 1.03 0.98US$/A$ 0.99 1.03 1.03 0.98TWI for A$ h 74 76 78 75TWI for A$ h 74 76 78 75a ABARES assumption. b Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. c Excludes Hong Kong. dWeighted using 2012 purchasing‐power‐parity (PPP) valuation of country gross domestic product by the International Monetary Fund. e Commercial bank prime lending rates in the United States. g Large business weighted average variable rate on credit outstanding.h Base: May 1970 = 100.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Monetary Fund; Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development; Reserve Bank of Australia

a ABARES assumption. b Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. c Excludes Hong Kong. dWeighted using 2012 purchasing‐power‐parity (PPP) valuation of country gross domestic product by the International Monetary Fund. e Commercial bank prime lending rates in the United States. g Large business weighted average variable rate on credit outstanding.h Base: May 1970 = 100.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Monetary Fund; Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development; Reserve Bank of Australia









11

Economic overview


Economic prospects in Australia’s major export markets

United StatesIn the United States, real gross domestic product expanded at a year-on-year rate of 1.8 per cent in the March quarter of 2013, following growth of 2.2 per cent for 2012 as a whole. The slower growth reflects declines in government spending and slower private investment as uncertainty over US fiscal policy weighed on consumer and investor sentiment.

On 1 March 2013 the US Government announced the budget sequester, a fiscal consolidation measure which includes around US$90 billion of public spending cuts for fiscal year 2013–14 and follows cuts already occurring in 2012–13. According to the US Congressional Budget Office, reduced public sector demand will subtract around 1.5 percentage points from economic growth in 2013.

Private sector demand is expected to continue expanding at a gradual pace. Consumer spending rose at a year-on-year rate of 2 per cent in the March quarter 2013, compared with 1.8 per cent in the December quarter 2012 and 1.9 per cent in the September quarter.

In the near term, improvements in consumer spending are expected to be supported by strengthening labour and housing markets. Median house prices increased by 11 per cent year-on-year in the March quarter 2013 and new housing starts increased to their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. The unemployment rate declined to 7.5 per cent in April 2013 from 7.6 per cent in March and an average of 8.1 per cent in 2012. Despite recent improvements, unemployment remains high, with further improvements expected to be gradual.

US unemployment rate

%

2

4

6

8

10

12

Oct2012

Apr2012

Oct2011

Apr2011

Oct2010

Apr2010

Oct2009

Apr2009

Oct2008

Apr2008

Apr2013

Manufacturing activity continued to expand in the March quarter 2013, albeit more slowly than in 2012. Industrial production grew year-on-year at 3 per cent in the March quarter 2013, compared with growth of 4 per cent for 2012 as a whole. Manufacturing activity is likely to continue to support economic growth in the near term.

12

Economic overview


In the short term, economic growth in the United States is assumed to remain relatively modest, with reduced public sector demand a key factor holding back economic growth. There is a downside risk of further public spending cuts if the US Congress does not raise the debt ceiling toward the end of 2013. Economic growth is assumed to average 2 per cent in 2013, increasing to 2.5 per cent in 2014, assuming continued strengthening of private demand.

OECD economic growth


Western EuropeJapanUnited States

%–1.0

–0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2012 2014a2013a

ChinaEconomic growth in China remains relatively strong, despite some easing of growth in domestic demand. Real gross domestic product expanded at a year-on-year rate of 7.7 per cent in the March quarter 2013, compared with 7.9 per cent in the December quarter 2012 and 7.4 per cent in the September quarter.

Domestic consumption moderated although remains relatively strong. Retail sales grew at a year-on-year rate of 12 per cent in the March quarter 2013 after expanding by 15 per cent in the December quarter and 14 per cent in the September quarter 2012. Fixed asset investment increased at a year-on-year rate of 21 per cent in the March quarter 2013, compared with growth of around 20 per cent in the December and September quarters 2012.

China’s exports increased at a year-on-year rate of 18 per cent in the March quarter 2013, compared with growth of 9 per cent in the December quarter 2012 and 4 per cent in the September quarter. While a strengthening in world economic growth is likely to support China’s export performance in coming quarters, there is uncertainty surrounding this outlook because of downside risks associated with economic growth in European economies.

13

Economic overview


China’s recent trade indicators

Exports

Imports

US$b

US$b

Trade balance(right axis)

–40

–20

0

20

40

60

80

100

40

80

120

160

200

Apr2013

Jan2013

Oct2012

Jul2012

Apr2012

Jan2012

Oct2011

Jul2011

Apr2011

Inflation remains relatively subdued in China. In March 2013 consumer prices grew by 2.1 per cent year-on-year, less than the 3.2 per cent in February and below the Chinese Government’s target of 3.5 per cent. Subdued inflation has paved the way for more accommodative monetary policy to support domestic demand if it weakens further.

Chinese inflation rate

%

1

2

3

4

5

Mar2013

Jan2013

Nov2012

Sep2012

Jul2012

May2012

Mar2012

Jan2012

Nov2011

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, economic growth in China is assumed to average 7.3 per cent in 2013, increasing to 7.6 per cent in 2014 in line with improving export growth.

14

Economic overview


JapanEconomic activity in Japan expanded at a year-on-year rate of 0.2 per cent in the March quarter 2013, compared with growth of 0.5 per cent in the December quarter 2012. Recent economic growth was achieved through government stimulus measures.

Reflecting a 10.3 trillion yen fiscal stimulus measure announced by the Japanese Government on 11 January 2013, public sector demand increased at a year-on-year rate of 4.5 per cent in the March quarter 2013, similar to the 4.4 per cent increase recorded for 2012 as a whole.

In contrast, private sector demand declined in recent quarters largely reflecting reduced non-residential investment. Private sector demand decreased at a year-on-year rate of 0.5 per cent in the March quarter 2013, compared with growth of around 2.4 per cent for 2012. Household spending grew at a year-on-year rate of 1.1 per cent in the March quarter 2013, down from 2.2 per cent for 2012 as a whole. In coming quarters, private sector activity is expected to be supported by government spending and an easing of monetary conditions, as the Bank of Japan attempts to achieve a 2 per cent inflation target.

Exports remain relatively weak, despite increasing at a year-on-year rate of 1.1 per cent in March 2013, following a decline of 2.9 per cent in February. Industrial production decreased at a year-on-year rate of 6.7 per cent in March 2013 after declining by 10.5 per cent in February. Depreciation of the yen against other major currencies in recent months is expected to support Japan’s export performance in the near term. The yen depreciated by around 17 per cent against the US dollar and by 6 per cent against the Australian dollar in the first five months of 2013.

Japan industrial production and exports

indexMarch

2010=100

ExportsIndustrial production

90

100

110

120

Mar2013

Sep2012

Mar2012

Sep2011

Mar2011

Sep2010

Mar2010

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, economic growth in Japan is assumed to average 1.3 per cent in 2013. In 2014 economic growth is assumed to ease slightly to 1 per cent, in line with a moderation of fiscal stimulus spending.

15

Economic overview


Western EuropeEconomic conditions in Western Europe weakened in recent quarters. In Germany, real gross domestic product declined at a year-on-year rate of 0.3 per cent in the March quarter 2013 after expanding by 0.3 per cent in the December quarter 2012. In France, real gross domestic product contracted by 0.4 per cent in the March quarter 2013 after contracting by 0.3 per cent in the December quarter 2012.

The slowdown mainly reflects reduced private sector demand. In France, consumer spending declined at a year-on-year rate of 0.5 per cent in the March quarter 2013, compared with a decline of 0.2 per cent in the December quarter 2012. In Italy, consumer spending declined year-on-year by 4.4 per cent in the December quarter 2012 and 4.8 per cent in the September quarter.

Weak demand for exports, particularly within the Euro area, also contributed to the slowdown. In France, exports declined at a year-on-year rate of 1.3 per cent in the March quarter 2013 after expanding by 1.2 per cent in 2012. Similarly, industrial production contracted year-on-year by 3.1 per cent in the March quarter 2013, after declining by 2.5 per cent in 2012.

Industrial production in selected European economies

indexDecember2010=100

Germany

FranceItaly

United Kingdom

85

90

95

100

105

110

Mar2013

Sep2012

Mar2012

Sep2011

Mar2011

Unemployment remains high in most countries in the region, having increased in recent months. In France, the unemployment rate increased to 11 per cent in March 2013 from 10.9 per cent in February. In Italy, the unemployment rate was 11.5 per cent in March 2013, compared with 10.6 per cent for 2012 as a whole. In contrast, the unemployment rate in Germany was around 5.5 per cent in 2012, significantly lower than other major European countries.

Austerity measures adversely affected economic growth in Western Europe. In Italy, public sector demand declined at a year-on-year rate of 3.3 per cent in the December quarter 2012, following a decline of 2.6 per cent in the September quarter 2012.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, weak private sector demand and high unemployment are expected to hold back any significant recovery of economic growth. Economic activity in Western Europe is not expected to grow until 2014, when growth is assumed to be 1.2 per cent with increased private sector demand and a slower pace of fiscal consolidation.

16

Economic overview


Unemployment rates in selected European economies

%

France

GermanyItaly

United Kingdom

2

4

6

8

10

12

Oct2012

Apr2012

Oct2011

Apr2011

Oct2010

Apr2010

Oct2009

Apr2009

Oct2008

Apr2008

Apr2013

Non-OECD AsiaEconomic activity in non-OECD Asia (excluding Japan and the Republic of Korea) moderated in early 2013. For example, in Malaysia, real gross domestic product expanded at a year-on-year rate of 4.1 per cent in the March quarter 2013, down from 6.5 per cent in the December quarter and 5.3 per cent in the September quarter 2012. In Singapore, economic activity grew at a year-on-year rate of 0.2 per cent in the March quarter 2013, following growth of 1.5 per cent in the December quarter 2012.

For many economies, moderating economic growth largely reflects the adverse effect of slower export growth. Because exports account for a relatively large share of economic activity in many Asian economies, declining export growth can have a large adverse effect on general economic activity. In Singapore, exports declined by 8.7 per cent year-on-year in the March quarter 2013 and by 5.1 per cent in the December quarter 2012. Manufacturing activity declined by 6.8 per cent year-on-year in the March quarter 2013 after falling by 0.2 per cent in the December quarter 2012.

Reflecting moderating growth, a number of governments have eased monetary conditions in recent months. In India, the benchmark lending rate was reduced by 25 basis points in May 2013, the third interest rate cut since the beginning of 2013. In Vietnam, the benchmark lending rate was reduced by 100 basis points in May 2013, the second interest rate cut since the beginning of 2013.

For non-OECD Asia as a whole, economic growth is assumed to average 7.1 per cent in 2013 and 7.2 per cent in 2014. Stronger world economic growth in 2014 is expected to provide support to regional export performance, while recent monetary easing is expected to support domestic demand.

17

Economic overview


Economic growth in Asia

2014a

2013a

2012

Korea,Republic of

TaiwanIndia

China

Singapore

Vietnam

Philippines

Malaysia

Indonesia

Thailand

%

2

4

6

8

10


Economic prospects in AustraliaIn Australia, real gross domestic product rose at a year-on-year rate of 2.5 per cent in the March quarter 2013, after expanding by 3.1 per cent in the December quarter 2012. In the short term, domestic demand is expected to be supported by continued mining investment and household spending. Growth in some non-mining sectors could remain below long-term trends.

Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.75 per cent in 2013–14, following estimated growth of 3 per cent in 2012–13.

Australian economic indicators

Interest rate bIn�ation rateEconomic growth

%

a ABARES assumption. b Large business weighted average variable rate on credit outstanding.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2013–14a2012–13a2011–12

18

Economic overview


InflationInflationary pressures in Australia have been modest in recent quarters. The consumer price index rose year-on-year by 2.5 per cent in the March quarter 2013, compared with 2.2 per cent in the December quarter and 2 per cent in the September quarter 2012.

The most significant price rises in the March quarter were for new dwelling purchases by owner–occupiers (up 2 per cent), pharmaceutical products (8 per cent), tertiary education (7 per cent) and tobacco (4 per cent). Partially offsetting these rises were price falls for international holiday travel and accommodation (down 5 per cent), furniture (7 per cent) and fruit (7 per cent).

In 2013–14 inflation is assumed to average 2.5 per cent, compared with an estimated 2.4 per cent in 2012–13.

Australian exchange rateIn late 2012–13 the Australian dollar depreciated significantly against the US dollar. The Australian dollar was trading at around US95c in mid June, compared with US106 cents in mid-April 2013. For 2012–13 as a whole the Australian dollar is estimated to average US103 cents, unchanged from the average in 2011–12.

To a large extent, the recent depreciation of the Australian dollar reflects improved market sentiment toward the US dollar as signs of US economic recovery are emerging. In addition, mineral resource prices on world markets have weakened over the past year, placing downward pressure on the value of the Australian dollar. In aggregate, the commodity price index measured by the Reserve Bank of Australia fell by around 15 per cent between April 2012 and April 2013.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, the Australian dollar is assumed to average around US98c for 2013–14 as a whole. On a trade-weighted basis, the Australian dollar is assumed to average around TWI 75 for the year compared with TWI 78 for 2012–13. While the Australian dollar is expected to remain below parity against the US dollar in the near term, the value of the Australian dollar is assumed to strengthen in the latter part of 2013–14.

A number of factors support this assessment. Although recent partial indicators suggest a strengthening in the pace of US economic recovery, the recovery in private sector demand is assumed to be gradual because of uncertainty associated with the stance of US fiscal policy. In contrast, economic growth in Australia is assumed to remain strong in the short term, averaging around 3 per cent in 2012–13 and 2.8 per cent in 2013–14, higher than the assumed growth rate of 2 to 2.5 per cent for the US economy over this period. Continued strong economic performance in Australia is expected to provide support for the Australian exchange rate.

Given the relative performance of the Australian economy, sizable differences are likely to remain in interest rates between Australia and other world economies, including the United States. While prime lending rates in Australia are assumed to decline from an average of 5.3 per cent in 2012–13 to 5.1 per cent in 2013–14, this remains higher than the 3.3 per cent assumed for the United States and 1.5 per cent for Japan. Higher interest rates in Australia are also expected to provide support for the value of the Australian dollar.

19

Economic overview


In addition, assumed strengthening world economic growth in 2014 is expected to increase commodity demand on world markets, supporting Australia’s export performance. This is also likely to improve financial market sentiment toward the Australian dollar, especially toward the latter part of 2013–14.

While the value of the Australian dollar in 2013–14 is assumed to remain relatively high against the US dollar, considerable uncertainty remains in the outlook for exchange rates. Because changes in financial market sentiment can influence movements in the Australian dollar, some volatility in the Australian exchange rate may continue. Consequently, it remains important for primary producers and exporters to manage the risks associated with fluctuations in the Australian exchange rate.

Australian exchange rate

US$/A$

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2


2013–14a

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

20

Economic overview


Outlook for Australian agricultural, fisheries and forestry exportsThe total volume of farm production is forecast to increase by around 2.9 per cent in 2013–14, following an estimated decline of 4.3 per cent in 2012–13. This increase largely reflects higher forecast crop production.

The index of crop production is forecast to increase by 4.7 per cent in 2013–14, after declining an estimated 9.8 per cent in 2012–13. The increase mainly reflects a forecast increase in wheat, barley and grain sorghum production.

The volume of livestock production is forecast to increase by 0.5 per cent in 2013–14, as forecast increases in dairy and beef and veal production more than offset a decline in lamb and sheep turn-offs. This follows an estimated increase of 3.2 per cent in 2012–13.

The index of unit export returns for Australian farm commodities is forecast to increase by 2.1 per cent in 2013–14, after declining by an estimated 2.4 per cent in 2012–13. In 2013–14, forecast lower world prices for wheat, barley, oilseeds, sugar and beef are expected to be more than offset by higher prices for wool, dairy products, wine, lamb and an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar.

Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $35.8 billion in 2013–14, 3.2 per cent lower than the $37.0 billion estimated for 2012–13. Farm commodities for which export earnings are forecast to be lower in 2013–14 include barley (down 7 per cent), canola (34 per cent), wheat (4 per cent), rice (15 per cent), grain sorghum (13 per cent), cotton (8 per cent), sugar (8 per cent), lamb and mutton (11 per cent) and wool (5 per cent). Partially offsetting these declines are forecast increases in export earnings for wine (up 8 per cent), beef and veal (5 per cent) and dairy products (10 per cent).

Export earnings for crops are forecast to fall by 6.5 per cent in 2013–14 to $20.7 billion, following an estimated rise of 2.7 per cent in 2012–13. This reflects exports from the reduced 2012–13 crop being traded in 2013–14. Export earnings from livestock products are forecast to increase by 1.7 per cent to $15.1 billion in 2013–14, following an estimated increase of 0.6 per cent in 2012–13.

Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to be around $1.2 billion in 2013–14, largely unchanged from the estimate for 2012–13.

Export earnings for forest products are estimated to decline by 5.5 per cent to $2.1 billion in 2012 –13, resulting from reductions in exports of all major forest commodities, particularly woodchips, which are estimated to decline by 8 per cent. In 2013–14 the value of forestry product exports is forecast to be marginally higher at around $2.2 billion.

In total, the value of Australian agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports is forecast to be around $39.3 billion in 2013–14, a decline of 2.6 per cent from an estimated $40.3 billion in 2012–13.

21

Economic overview


Major indicators of Australia’s agriculture and natural resources based sectors

Change from previous yearChange from previous year

2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 s 2012–13 f 2013–14 f 2012–13 % 2013–14 %2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 s 2012–13 f 2013–14 f 2012–13 % 2013–14 %E h t $/ $Exchange rate US$/A$ 0.75 0.88 0.99 1.03 1.03 0.98 0.0 – 4.9Unit returns aFarm index 100.0 88.2 97.7 98.2 95.8 97.8 – 2.4 2.1Unit returns aFarm index 100.0 88.2 97.7 98.2 95.8 97.8 – 2.4 2.1

$ 3 9 6 3 309 3 3 39 80 0 289 39 2 2 3 2 6Value of exports A$m 34 946 31 309 35 531 39 780 40 289 39 252 1.3 – 2.6pFarm A$m 31 075 27 793 31 809 36 324 37 002 35 811 1.9 – 3.2Farm A$m 31 075 27 793 31 809 36 324 37 002 35 811 1.9 3.2– crops A$m 16 361 14 890 17 313 21 589 22 183 20 736 2.7 – 6.5– crops A$m 16 361 14 890 17 313 21 589 22 183 20 736 2.7 6.5– livestock A$m 14 714 12 903 14 496 14 735 14 819 15 076 0 6 1 7– livestock A$m 14 714 12 903 14 496 14 735 14 819 15 076 0.6 1.7Forest and fisheries products A$m 3 871 3 516 3 722 3 456 3 287 3 441 4 9 4 7Forest and fisheries products A$m 3 871 3 516 3 722 3 456 3 287 3 441 – 4.9 4.7 forestry A$ 2 343 2 270 2 474 2 229 2 106 2 238 5 5 6 3– forestry A$m 2 343 2 270 2 474 2 229 2 106 2 238 – 5.5 6.3

– fisheries A$m 1 529 1 246 1 248 1 227 1 181 1 203 – 3.7 1.8 fisheries $

Gross value of production bF A$ 41 929 39 665 46 914 47 972 47 253 47 715 1 5 1 0Gross value of production bFarm A$m 41 929 39 665 46 914 47 972 47 253 47 715 – 1.5 1.0– crops A$m 22 769 21 136 25 876 26 852 27 529 27 550 2.5 0.1 crops $– livestock A$m 19 160 18 529 21 038 21 120 19 724 20 164 – 6.6 2.2– livestock A$m 19 160 18 529 21 038 21 120 19 724 20 164 6.6 2.2Forestry and fisheries A$m 3 973 3 967 4 082 4 034 3 882 4 089 – 3 8 5 3Forestry and fisheries A$m 3 973 3 967 4 082 4 034 3 882 4 089 – 3.8 5.3– forestry A$m 1 759 1 777 1 851 1 647 1 488 1 629 9 6 9 5– forestry A$m 1 759 1 777 1 851 1 647 1 488 1 629 – 9.6 9.5fi h i A$ 2 214 2 191 2 231 2 387 2 394 2 460 0 3 2 8– fisheries A$m 2 214 2 191 2 231 2 387 2 394 2 460 0.3 2.8

Volume of production cFarm index 107 9 107 5 114 2 120 1 114 9 118 2 4 3 2 9Volume of production cFarm index 107.9 107.5 114.2 120.1 114.9 118.2 – 4.3 2.9

i d 113 2 114 4 126 2 138 2 124 6 130 4 9 8 4 7– crops index 113.2 114.4 126.2 138.2 124.6 130.4 – 9.8 4.7– livestock index 100.6 98.7 100.6 100.9 104.1 104.6 3.2 0.5 livestockForestry index 119.5 118.5 122.7 112.3 110.0 116.3 – 2.0 5.7Forestry index 119.5 118.5 122.7 112.3 110.0 116.3 2.0 5.7Production area and livestock numbersC ( i d il d ) ’000 h 24 09 23 8 23 946 24 29 23 8 8 23 99 1 8 0 3Production area and livestock numbersCrop area (grains and oilseeds) ’000 ha 24 095 23 787 23 946 24 295 23 858 23 799 – 1.8 – 0.3p (g )Forestry plantation area ’000 ha 2 020 2 009 2 017 2 013 na na na naForestry plantation area 000 ha 2 020 2 009 2 017 2 013 na na na naSheep million 72.7 68.1 73.1 74.7 74.0 73.6 – 0.9 – 0.5Sheep million 72.7 68.1 73.1 74.7 74.0 73.6 0.9 0.5Cattle million 27 9 26 6 28 5 28 4 28 1 27 9 – 1 1 – 0 7Cattle million 27.9 26.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.9 – 1.1 – 0.7

Farm costs A$m 36 631 34 460 36 515 37 404 36 892 37 639 – 1.4 2.0Farm costs $Net cash income d A$m 5 865 9 997 15 343 15 636 15 561 15 415 – 0.5 – 0.9Net cash income d A$m 5 865 9 997 15 343 15 636 15 561 15 415 0.5 0.9Net value of farm production e A$m 5 298 5 204 10 399 10 568 10 361 10 076 – 2 0 – 2 8Net value of farm production e A$m 5 298 5 204 10 399 10 568 10 361 10 076 – 2.0 – 2.8

Farmers’ terms of trade index 88.5 88.6 96.4 93.6 96.7 94.3 3.3 – 2.5Farmers terms of trade index 88.5 88.6 96.4 93.6 96.7 94.3 3.3 2.5EmploymentAgriculture forestry and fishing ’000 363 369 350 334EmploymentAgriculture, forestry and fishing ’000 363 369 350 334 na na na naAustralia ’000 10 899 11 003 11 288 11 413 na na na naAustralia 000 10 899 11 003 11 288 11 413 na na na na

a Base: 2008–09 = 100. b For a definition of the gross value of farm production see Table 13. c Chain weighted basis using Fishers’ ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. d Gross value of farm production less total cash costs. e Gross value of farm production less total farm costs. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. na Not available.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics







22

Economic overview


Major Australian agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity exports

worldpricevalue valuevolume

–9% –10%

Wheat, cotton, sugar, rice and oilseeds are world indicator prices in US$. All other commodities are export unit returnsor domestic prices in A$. For export value, annual forecasts are the sum of quarterly forecasts. As a result, annual export values do not necessarily re�ect variations in export volumes, world prices and exchange rates.

2013–14

2012–13 f

2013–14 f

$b

+1%

–12%

–2%

–12%

+8%

–8%

+2%

–4%

–5%+4%

+10%

–7%–5%

–4%

0%

–8%

+7%

–15%

1%

+5%

–5%

–27%

+8%

–5%

+3%

+9%

–9%

+3%

–17%

0%

+5%

+8%

–31%

–8%

–8%

+5%

+5%

f ABARES forecast.

$6.62b$6.89b

$5.08b$4.84b

$2.75b$2.88b

$1.96b$1.82b

$2.17b$2.35b

$1.53b$2.23b

$2.43b$2.21b

$1.39b$1.50b

$1.29b$1.40b

$0.98b$1.06b

$0.72b$0.67b

$0.44b$0.51b

$0.39b$0.38b

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Rock Lobster

Rice

Woodchips

Lamb

Sugar

Barley

Oilseeds

Wine

Cotton

Dairy

Wool

Beef and veal

Wheat

23

Running Main Header Milo Pro Medium 8pt


AgricultureCrops


WheatNeil Thompson

The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, fob Gulf) is forecast to fall by 10 per cent in 2013–14 to average US$315 a tonne. The forecast price decline largely reflects the combined effect of an expected increase in world wheat production, from the drought-affected 2012–13 season, and forecast higher world corn production, which is expected to reduce demand growth for wheat used in livestock feed.

World wheat supply and price

US hard red winter, fob Gulf (right axis)

Supply

Mt2012–13US$/t

200

400

600

800

1000

100

200

300

400

500

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

f ABARES forecast.

World production to increase in 2013–14After falling by around 6 per cent in 2012–13, world wheat production is forecast to rise by around 5 per cent in 2013–14 to 690 million tonnes, which largely reflects higher production in the Black Sea region (the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan) and the European Union. Forecast declines in the United States and India are expected to partly offset these forecast increases.

25

Wheat


Wheat production changes, major producers, 2013–14

Mt

UnitedStates

Kazakhstan

RussianFederation

Ukraine

China

India

EuropeanUnion

Canada

Argentina

Australia

0

–5

5

10

15

20

Wheat production in the Black Sea region is forecast to increase significantly in 2013–14 following hot and dry seasonal conditions in 2012–13. Wheat production is expected to rise by 41 per cent in 2013–14 to around 53 million tonnes in the Russian Federation, while in Ukraine is forecast to rise by around 27 per cent to 20 million tonnes. In Kazakhstan, where sowing of spring wheat is underway, production is forecast to rise by 42 per cent to 14 million tonnes, largely reflecting assumed higher average yields.

Wheat crops in the Russian Federation and Ukraine emerged from winter dormancy with around 90 per cent rated in satisfactory to good condition. However, a downside risk to the current production forecasts for the Russian Federation and Ukraine is the relatively dry seasonal conditions over the past month or so. If dry conditions persist yields may be reduced.

In the European Union, wheat production is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to around 138 million tonnes. Favourable seasonal conditions across much of the European Union are expected to result in higher average yields. One exception is the United Kingdom, where seasonal conditions have been wet. This restricted the area planted to winter wheat and hindered crop development.

Wheat production in Canada is forecast to increase by around 7 per cent in 2013–14 to 29 million tonnes, reflecting an assumed 7 per cent increase in harvested area.

In the United States, significant winter wheat growing areas remain in drought, despite an improvement in general conditions in recent months. According to the National Drought Mitigation Center, at the end of May 2013 44 per cent of the United States (excluding Hawaii and Alaska) was in moderate to exceptional drought, compared with 63 per cent in late November 2012.

26

Wheat


The worst-affected states are mostly in the US winter wheat belt, including Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado and Nebraska. In Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, which collectively account for more than 25 per cent of US wheat production, wheat crop ratings have remained well below average. In late May 2013, 28 per cent of the wheat crop in Kansas was rated in good to excellent condition, compared with an average of 42 per cent at the same time over the five years to 2012–13. In Oklahoma and Texas, good to excellent ratings were at 17 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively, in late May, compared with five-year averages of 42 per cent and 28 per cent.

Wheat production in the United States is forecast to decline by 10 per cent in 2013–14 to around 55 million tonnes, which is 9 per cent lower than the five-year average to 2012–13.

Proportion of United States in drought, end of month, selected states

%

KansasOklahomaTexasUnited States (excluding Hawaiiand Alaska)

20

40

60

80

100

May2013

Apr2013

Mar2013

Feb2013

Jan2013

Dec2012

Nov2012

Oct2012

In Argentina, wheat production is forecast to rise by 30 per cent in 2013–14 to around 13 million tonnes. The increase reflects a recent announcement by the Argentine Government to introduce a rebate for wheat export taxes, which is expected to encourage producers to significantly increase the area planted to wheat.

Wheat production in China is forecast to be around 121 million tonnes in 2013–14, largely unchanged from the previous season.

In India, wheat production is forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to around 90 million tonnes. Harvesting of the 2013–14 wheat crop is underway with early indications that the average yield is likely to be lower than the record achieved last year.

27

Wheat


Wheat consumption higherWorld consumption of wheat is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2013–14 to 687 million tonnes, driven by small increases in both wheat for human consumption and feed wheat consumption.

Trade to rise on higher Russian Federation exportsWorld trade in wheat is forecast to increase by 9 per cent in 2013–14 to 142 million tonnes, largely reflecting a forecast increase in supplies available for export in most major exporting countries and higher import demand due to lower world prices.

The largest increase is expected to occur in the Russian Federation, where exports in 2013–14 are forecast to reach a little more than 17 million tonnes, 62 per cent higher than a drought-affected 11 million tonnes in 2012–13. Exports from Ukraine and Kazakhstan are also forecast to rise, but at a slower rate than the Russian Federation, reaching 8 million tonnes and 7 million tonnes, respectively, in 2013–14.

Wheat exports from Argentina are forecast to increase in 2013–14 to 8 million tonnes, compared with 5.5 million tonnes in 2012–13. The forecast increase reflects the Argentine Government’s decision to provide a rebate for the 23 per cent tax on wheat exports.

In the European Union, wheat exports are forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to around 23 million tonnes. In Canada, wheat exports are forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to around 19 million tonnes. In contrast, wheat exports in the United States are forecast to decline by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to around 26.5 million tonnes.

Although not generally a major exporter of wheat, Indian wheat exports increased significantly in 2012–13 following record production. Another relatively large Indian wheat crop, in excess of 90 million tonnes, is forecast for 2013–14, which is expected to result in exports rising by 40 per cent to 7 million tonnes. If realised, this would be the highest Indian wheat export on record.

World wheat exports

Mt

Other

AustraliaBlack Sea region

European Union

United States

Canada

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

f ABARES forecast.

30

60

90

120

150

28

Wheat


World stocks to increase marginallyWorld wheat closing stocks are forecast to rise by around 2 per cent in 2013–14 to 180 million tonnes. While closing stocks for most major wheat producers are forecast to increase, stocks in India, the world’s third largest wheat producer, are forecast to decline by 23 per cent to 19 million tonnes. This decline reflects an expected increase in domestic consumption and higher exports as the Indian Government attempts to reduce significant stockholdings following several years of above average production.

Australian wheat production to riseAustralian wheat production is forecast to rise by 15 per cent in 2013–14 to around 25.4 million tonnes. This increase reflects a forecast 3 per cent rise in the area planted to wheat in 2013–14 and an assumption of favourable seasonal conditions. Sowing of wheat is largely complete across most states with some growers in drier regions, especially in southern Victoria and western New South Wales, yet to complete planting.

The seasonal outlook issued by the Bureau of Meteorology for the winter period (June to August) points to an increase in the probability of a wetter than average winter across most of the major cropping areas in the eastern states. For Western Australia, average rainfall is expected over the same period. While the outlook is positive, the timeliness of in-crop rainfall will be essential for crop development as soil moisture levels across the cropping zone are generally low.

Wheat production in Western Australia is forecast to rise by 29 per cent in 2013–14 to around 8.8 million tonnes, following dry seasonal conditions in 2012–13. The forecast increase reflects a 3 per cent increase in the area planted to wheat and expected higher yields.

For eastern states (including South Australia), recent rainfall across most of the major growing regions has improved crop prospects. This improvement in seasonal conditions, combined with a 3 per cent increase in the area sown to wheat, is forecast to result in wheat production in eastern states rising by 9 per cent in 2013–14 to 16.6 million tonnes.

Australian wheat production

Mt

Eastern states(including South Australia)Western Australia

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

5

10

15

20

25

30

29

Wheat


Wheat outlook

% 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f

% change2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f change

W ldWorldProduction Mt 696 655 690 5.3Production Mt 696 655 690 5.3– China Mt 118 121 121 0 3– China Mt 118 121 121 0.3European Union 27 Mt 137 130 138 6 0– European Union 27 Mt 137 130 138 6.0I di Mt 87 95 90 5 1– India Mt 87 95 90 – 5.1

– Russian Federation Mt 56 38 53 40.5– United States Mt 54 62 55 – 10.3 United States Mt 54 62 55 10.3

Consumption Mt 692 676 687 1 6Consumption Mt 692 676 687 1.6h 6 6 6– human Mt 461 464 471 1.6

– feed Mt 146 130 132 1.7 feed Mt 146 130 132 1.7

Closing stocks Mt 197 177 180 1 7Closing stocks Mt 197 177 180 1.7St k t ti % 29 26 26 0 1Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 29 26 26 0.1Trade Mt 145 130 142 9.2Exports aExports aArgentina Mt 13 6 8 45 5– Argentina Mt 13 6 8 45.5

M 23 21 19 9 4– Australia b Mt 23 21 19 – 9.4– Canada Mt 18 18 19 2.8 Canada Mt 18 18 19 2.8– European Union 27 Mt 17 22 23 5.5 European Union 27 Mt 17 22 23 5.5– Kazakhstan Mt 11 7 7 2 9– Kazakhstan Mt 11 7 7 2.9Russian Federation Mt 22 11 17 61 7– Russian Federation Mt 22 11 17 61.7Uk i Mt 5 7 8 14 3– Ukraine Mt 5 7 8 14.3

– United States Mt 29 28 27 – 5.4U ted StatesPrice c US$/t 299 348 315 – 9 6Price c US$/t 299 348 315 – 9.6AustraliaArea ’000 ha 13 902 13 243 13 677 3.3Area 000 ha 13 902 13 243 13 677 3.3Production kt 29 905 22 079 25 399 15 0Production kt 29 905 22 079 25 399 15.0Exports b kt 23 026 21 461 19 450 9 4Exports b kt 23 026 21 461 19 450 – 9.4

l A$ 6 378 6 891 6 617 4 0– value A$m 6 378 6 891 6 617 – 4.0APW 10 net pool return A$/t 260 345 308 – 10.9APW 10 net pool return A$/t 260 345 308 10.9a Local marketing years. b July–June years. c US no. 2 hard red winter wheat fob Gulf, July–June.f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

a Local marketing years. b July–June years. c US no. 2 hard red winter wheat fob Gulf, July–June.f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics




Export earnings to declineAustralian wheat exports are forecast to fall by 9 per cent in 2013–14 to around 19.5 million tonnes. This reflects lower production of wheat in 2012–13 and an expected reduction in stock drawdowns, which have supported 2012–13 exports. The value of exports is forecast to decline by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to $6.6 billion, reflecting forecast lower world prices and export volumes.


The world coarse grains indicator price (US corn, fob Gulf) is forecast to fall by 13.5 per cent in 2013–14 to US$270 a tonne. The world indicator price for barley (French Rouen feed) is forecast to fall by 13.5 per cent to US$256 a tonne. These forecast price decreases are principally driven by an expected increase in world coarse grains supplies.

World coarse grains prices

2012–13US$/t

French Rouen feed barleyUS corn, fob Gulf ports

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

f ABARES forecast.

Coarse grainsDavid Mobsby

31

Coarse grains


ProductionWorld coarse grains production is forecast to increase by 10 per cent in 2013–14 to 1.24 billion tonnes, largely driven by a forecast increase in world corn production.

World coarse grains production

OtherBarley Corn

f ABARES forecast.

Mt

300

600

900

1200

1500

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

BarleyWorld barely production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to 134 million tonnes, largely driven by forecast production increases in the Russian Federation and the European Union.

Barley production in the Russian Federation is forecast to increase by 25 per cent in 2013–14 to 17.5 million tonnes, reflecting a forecast return to average yields from the below average yields achieved in 2012–13. Most barley grown in the Russian Federation is planted in spring; aside from some dryness reported in southern growing districts, spring conditions have been generally favourable.

In the European Union, the world’s largest barley producer, barley production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2013–14 to around 55 million tonnes, driven by an assumed increase in yields. However, the area planted to barley is expected to fall. Growing conditions for winter crops have been generally favourable, which has resulted in less winterkill than last season. The reduced incidence of winterkill is expected to limit the amount of land available for spring crops such as barley and corn. Additionally, below average temperatures in March have delayed the progress of spring planting and this is expected to result in some producers switching some land from barley to corn, which typically has a later planting window.

In Ukraine, barley production is forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2013–14 to 7.0 million tonnes, which reflects a forecast increase in the average yield. However, cold spring conditions have slowed the progress of spring planting and, by late April, progress was well below the five-year average to 2012, which could lower the average yield below that being forecast.

32

Coarse grains


In Canada, barley production is forecast to rise by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to 8.5 million tonnes. The forecast increase reflects an expected increase in the average yield after experiencing a below average season in 2012–13, assuming favourable seasonal conditions for the remainder of 2013–14. However, according to Statistics Canada, producers intend to reduce the area planted to barley by 2 per cent in 2013–14.

In Argentina, barley production is forecast to fall by 27 per cent in 2013–14 to 4.0 million tonnes, which is largely due to an expected fall in the area planted to barley. Producers are expected to switch from barley to wheat in response to an expectation of more favourable returns to wheat.

CornWorld corn production is forecast to rise by 12 per cent in 2013–14 to 960 million tonnes, driven by a forecast increase in production in the United States.

In the United States, corn production is forecast to increase by 29 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 355 million tonnes. This largely reflects a return to average yields from the drought-affected yields of 2012–13. Additionally, data published by the United States Department of Agriculture indicates that US producers initially intended to slightly increase the area planted to corn in 2013–14 to 39.4 million hectares, which would be the highest level since 1936. This forecast increase reflects producer responses to the favourable corn prices that prevailed in the lead-up to the planting window. However, prolonged cold and wet conditions during April delayed planting progress significantly and, while producers have made up for much of the early delay, the area planted to corn is now expected to be below initial intentions. Some of the area initially expected to be planted to corn is now expected to be planted to soybeans, which generally has a later planting window.

World corn production

OtherUkraineEuropean Union

f ABARES forecast.

Mt

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

BrazilArgentinaChinaUnited States

200

400

600

800

1000

In China, corn production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 214 million tonnes, driven by an expected increase in planted area. According to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, producers intend to increase the area planted to corn by 4 per cent in 2013–14. Although the domestic corn price has fallen slightly from the previous season, returns from growing corn remain favourable compared with production alternatives.

33

Coarse grains


In the European Union, corn production is forecast to increase by 18 per cent in 2013–14 to 65 million tonnes. This mainly reflects a return to average yields from the below average yields in 2012–13. Additionally, some producers are expected to plant corn instead of barley due to delays in the spring planting of barley.

Ukrainian corn production is forecast to increase by 21 per cent in 2013–14 to 25 million tonnes, driven by an expected increase in planted area. Producers are expected to respond to favourable returns from growing corn. However, a mild winter is expected to result in a small reduction in the loss of winter crop to winterkill, compared with the previous season, and limit the expected increase in area planted to corn.

Forecast increases in coarse grains production in the major northern hemisphere exporting countries are expected to place downward pressure on coarse grains prices ahead of the 2013–14 planting window in the southern hemisphere. With southern hemisphere producers expected to face lower prices during their planting window for corn, they are expected to reduce planted area. In Argentina, corn production is forecast to decrease by 1 per cent to 26 million tonnes, with growers expected to switch some area to alternative crops offering more favourable returns. In Brazil, corn production is forecast to contract by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to 72 million tonnes, which reflects a return to average yields from the above average levels in 2012–13, in addition to the expected fall in planted area.

ConsumptionWorld consumption of coarse grains is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to 1.22 billion tonnes, which mainly reflects higher feed demand from livestock producers in China and the United States. In 2013–14 world feed use of corn and barley is expected to rise by 8 per cent and 2 per cent to 560 million tonnes and 90 million tonnes, respectively. In China, the use of corn for feed is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 153 million tonnes; in the United States, it is forecast to increase by 21 per cent to 135 million tonnes. Total barley consumption is forecast to rise by 1 per cent to 134 million tonnes.

World coarse grains consumption

Food, seed and industrialFeed

f ABARES forecast.

Mt

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

34

Coarse grains


World food, seed and industrial use of coarse grains is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to 499 million tonnes. This outlook is driven by an expected increase in corn-based ethanol production in the United States as producers respond to forecast lower corn prices and improved producer margins. In 2012 US ethanol production fell following the sharp rise in corn prices in mid-2012. Additionally, US gasoline refiners and importers will be required to meet an increase in the Renewable Fuel Standard blending obligations in 2013 and 2014.

Record corn production to increase world trade in 2013–14World trade in coarse grains is forecast to increase by 20 per cent in 2013–14 to 138 million tonnes, led by a 23 per cent increase in corn trade to 107 million tonnes. The United States is forecast to be the principal driver behind this growth, with an expected doubling in corn exports to 39 million tonnes following a forecast increase in supplies available for export. Additionally, Ukraine is forecast to increase its corn exports by 22 per cent to 16.5 million tonnes. In contrast, Brazil and Argentina are forecast to reduce exports by 14 per cent and 3 per cent to 19 million tonnes and 18 million tonnes, respectively, in response to forecast falls in production. Despite these forecast falls, Brazilian and Argentinean corn exports are expected to remain above their five-year averages to 2011–12.

World corn trade

OtherChinaUkraine

f ABARES forecast.

Mt

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

1999–2000

BrazilArgentinaUnited States

20

40

60

80

100

120

World barley exports are forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to 20 million tonnes. This forecast increase is expected to be driven by higher exports from the Russian Federation. Barley exports from the Russian Federation are forecast to increase by nearly two-thirds to 3.5 million tonnes. In contrast, barley exports from Canada are forecast to fall by 9 per cent to 2.1 million tonnes. A 6 per cent increase in Canadian barley production is not expected to increase supplies available for export because of low opening stocks and steady domestic demand. In Argentina, barley exports are forecast to decline by 27 per cent in 2013–14 to 3.0 million tonnes, in line with a forecast 27 per cent fall in production.

35

Coarse grains


Record corn production to increase world stocks in 2013–14Closing stocks of coarse grains are forecast to rise by 19 per cent in 2013–14 to 180 million tonnes with world production expected to exceed consumption by around 30 million tonnes. If realised this level of closing stocks will be the highest since 2009–10. Most of this forecast rise in stocks is due to higher corn production in the United States, where closing stocks are forecast to double to around 40 million tonnes. Closing stocks of coarse grains are forecast to remain largely unchanged in other major exporting countries.

Higher Australian production in 2013–14Australian coarse grains production is forecast to increase by 9 per cent in 2013–14 to 11.4 million tonnes. Large increases in production are forecast for Australia’s major coarse grains—barley and grain sorghum.

Barley production is forecast to increase by 10 per cent in 2013–14 to 7.4 million tonnes, reflecting an increase in barley plantings and a generally favourable rainfall outlook for the growing season. For the eastern states, producers have increased area planted to barley because of dry seasonal conditions at the early stage of the planting window, leading to more barley plantings instead of canola. Although barley area is forecast to increase marginally in Western Australia, a forecast increase in yields from 2012–13 is expected to lead to a rise of 12 per cent in barley production to 2.2 million tonnes.

The area planted to grain sorghum, Australia’s major summer coarse grain, is forecast to rise by 11 per cent in 2013–14 to 627 000 hectares. This reflects assumed favourable planting conditions in 2013–14 from the hot and dry conditions experienced in 2012–13. Production is forecast to increase by 22 per cent to 2.1 million tonnes.

Grain sorghum production in 2012–13 is estimated to have decreased by 23 per cent to 1.7 million tonnes, which largely reflects a 14 per cent decrease in planted area. In addition, yields are estimated to have fallen by 10 per cent from the previous season to around 3 tonnes a hectare.

Australian coarse grains production

OtherOatsGrain sorghum

f ABARES forecast.

Mt

2013–14f

Barley

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

1995–96

36

Coarse grains


Export earnings to fall in 2013–14Coarse grain exports are forecast to fall by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to 5.7 million tonnes. Despite an expected increase in domestic production, higher domestic feed grain demand is expected to lead to lower coarse grain exports in 2013–14. The value of coarse grain exports is forecast to decrease by 7 per cent in 2013–14 to $1.7 billion.

For barley, exports are forecast to fall by 2 per cent in 2013–14 to 4.7 million tonnes, while the value of exports is forecast to decline by 7 per cent to $1.4 billion. The volume of grain sorghum exports in 2013–14 are forecast to fall by 17 per cent to around 816 000 tonnes, with the export value falling by 13 per cent to around $231 million.

Australian coarse grains export value

OtherGrain sorghumBarley

f ABARES forecast.

2012–13$m

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

1995–96

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

37

Coarse grains


Coarse grains outlook

C i tl kCoarsegrainsoutlook%

gf f

% hunit 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f change

WorldProduction Mt 1 155 1 130 1 243 10 0WorldProduction Mt 1 155 1 130 1 243 10.0barley Mt 134 130 134 3 1– barley Mt 134 130 134 3.1

884 8 9 960 11 8– corn Mt 884 859 960 11.8Consumption Mt 1 155 1 144 1 215 6.2Consumption Mt 1 155 1 144 1 215 6.2Trade Mt 148 115 138 20 0Trade Mt 148 115 138 20.0Closing stocks Mt 165 151 180 19 2Closing stocks Mt 165 151 180 19.2St k t ti % 14 13 15 15 4Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 14 13 15 15.4Corn price (fob Gulf, Jul–Jun) US$/t 281 312 270 – 13.5

p (fob Gulf, Jul Jun) US$/t 281 312 270 13.5Barley price(fob Rouen Jul Jun) US$/t 270 296 256 13 5Barley price (fob Rouen, Jul–Jun) US$/t 270 296 256 – 13.5AustraliaArea ’000 ha 5 323 5 252 5 408 3.0Area 000 ha 5 323 5 252 5 408 3.0– barley ’000 ha 3 718 3 680 3 752 2.0– barley 000 ha 3 718 3 680 3 752 2.0– grain sorghum ’000 ha 659 565 627 11 0– grain sorghum ’000 ha 659 565 627 11.0

dProduction kt 12 457 10 455 11 431 9.3– barley kt 8 221 6 761 7 417 9.7 barley kt 8 221 6 761 7 417 9.7– grain sorghum kt 2 239 1 721 2 108 22.5– grain sorghum kt 2 239 1 721 2 108 22.5

E kt 7 911 5 955 5 719 4 0Exports a kt 7 911 5 955 5 719 – 4.0p– value A$m 2 245 1 825 1 690 – 7.4 value $Feed barley price b A$/t 197 244 206 – 15.6Feed barley price b A$/t 197 244 206 15.6Malting barley price c A$/t 203 254 219 – 13 8Malting barley price c A$/t 203 254 219 – 13.8a July–June years. b Feed 1, delivered Geelong. c Gairdner Malt 1, delivered Geelong. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculture

a July–June years. b Feed 1, delivered Geelong. c Gairdner Malt 1, delivered Geelong. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculture





Record supply of oilseeds to drive price downThe world oilseeds indicator price (US soybeans, fob Gulf) is forecast to decline by 13 per cent in 2013–14 to US$520 a tonne. The prospect of record high soybean production and a significant rise in closing stocks are the primary drivers of this expected decline. However, lower than expected soybean production in the United States presents an upside risk to this price forecast. Soybean planting has been delayed in that country and if further delays result in a lower than expected area planted to soybeans, the world oilseeds indicator price may average markedly higher than currently forecast.

The world canola indicator price (Europe rapeseed, fob Hamburg) is forecast to fall by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to US$605 a tonne, reflecting higher world production and closing stocks. However, the combined influence of continued strong demand and a relatively low stocks-to-use ratio is expected to limit any significant decline in the world canola indicator price.

World oilseeds indicator prices (fiscal year)

2012–13$US/t

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

CanolaSoybean

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

OilseedsBeth Deards

39

Oilseeds


Production to rise in 2013–14World oilseeds production is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 487 million tonnes as a result of expected production growth in all three major oilseeds—canola, soybeans and sunflower seed.

Canola

World production of canola is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to 62 million tonnes, reflecting expected higher canola production in Canada and the European Union.

Canola production in Canada is forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2013–14 to 14.5 million tonnes, which reflects an assumed return to favourable seasonal conditions and a forecast recovery in the average yield. However, the area planted to canola is forecast to fall by 9 per cent to less than 8 million hectares, despite relatively favourable canola prices at sowing time. The forecast decline in the area planted to canola will be the first since 2006–07 and is expected to be driven by rotational needs.

Canola planted area, Canada

OtherManitobaAlbertaSaskatchewan

Mha

f ABARES forecast.

2

4

6

8

10

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

In the European Union, rapeseed (canola) production is forecast to rise by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to almost 20 million tonnes, driven by an expected 2 per cent increase in planted area. Except for the United Kingdom, rapeseed in the European Union is generally in good condition. In contrast to last season, winterkill was minimal as snow cover on fields prevented major frost damage.

Soybeans

World production of soybeans is forecast to rise by 7 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 284 million tonnes. Soybean production is forecast to increase in all major producing countries.

40

Oilseeds


In the United States, soybean production is forecast to rise by 12 per cent in 2013–14 to 91.7 million tonnes, driven by a forecast increase in planted area and an expected improvement in yield. The area planted to soybeans is forecast to rise by 3 per cent to 31.6 million hectares. However, the planting of soybeans has been delayed this season because of above average rainfall and producer decisions to complete the planting of corn first. By late May only 44 per cent of the intended area had been planted, compared with 87 per cent at the same time last year and a five-year average to 2012 of 61 per cent. If further delays occur, the forecast planted area may not be realised. Assuming favourable conditions for the growing season, yields are expected to recover from last year when drought adversely affected production.

Harvest of the 2012–13 soybean crop in Latin America was recently completed. Soybean production is estimated to have increased in Brazil and Argentina by 24 per cent and 22 per cent, respectively, to 81.5 million tonnes and 48.5 million tonnes.

In Brazil, the average yield in 2012–13 is estimated to have improved from last season’s drought but to remain below the record achieved in 2010–11. While the average yield is estimated to have improved, many crops were adversely affected by dry conditions during the growing season and, in the main producing region of Mato Grosso, excessive rain at harvest time.

In Argentina, the average yield also improved in 2012–13 from last season’s drought but was adversely affected by hot and dry conditions during the season and remained below the long-term average. In Paraguay, production is estimated to have almost doubled to 8 million tonnes, driven by a significant increase in the average yield.

In 2013–14 soybean production in Latin America is forecast to increase. In Brazil and Argentina production is forecast to increase by 4 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively, to 85 million tonnes and 55 million tonnes. This forecast production, if achieved, would be a record and would reflect an expected 2 per cent increase in planted area in each country as well as higher yields, assuming average seasonal conditions. Soybean production in Paraguay is forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2013–14 at around 8 million tonnes.

World oilseeds production

OtherSun�owerCanolaSoybean

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

41

Oilseeds


Sunflower seed

World sunflower seed production is forecast to rise by 9 per cent in 2013–14 to 38.5 million tonnes. Production is forecast to increase significantly in the Black Sea region and the European Union, assuming seasonal conditions are more favourable than last season.

In the Black Sea countries of Ukraine and the Russian Federation, sunflower seed production is forecast to increase by 12 per cent and 6 per cent in 2013–14, respectively, to 9.4 million tonnes and 8.4 million tonnes. Returns to producers from growing sunflower seed have been favourable, despite prices falling from the highs recorded earlier this year, and producers in the Russian Federation are expected to increase the area planted to sunflower seed by 5 per cent. However, in Ukraine, low winterkill is expected to limit any significant increase in land available to sunflower seed. Yields are forecast to increase in both countries, particularly in Ukraine, assuming favourable seasonal conditions.

In the European Union, sunflower seed production is forecast to rise by 18 per cent in 2013–14 to around 8 million tonnes. The area planted to sunflower seed is forecast to remain relatively unchanged, with increases in planted area in Bulgaria, Spain, Italy and France expected to be offset by smaller planted area in Romania and Hungary. Assuming average seasonal conditions, yields are expected to increase significantly in 2013–14 from last season’s drought-affected crop.

Sunflower seed production in Argentina is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to almost 3.5 million tonnes, reflecting an increase in planted area. The area planted to sunflower seed is forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2013–14 after flooding prevented full realisation of planting intentions in 2012–13. Yields are forecast to decline in 2013–14 from the above average yield achieved last season.

Strong demand for oilseed products drives crushWorld oilseeds crush is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to 410 million tonnes. This forecast rise is expected to be driven by continued strong demand for vegetable oils and protein meals and supported by higher world oilseeds production.

In 2013–14 world soybean crush is forecast to rise by 6 per cent to 243 million tonnes, reflecting increased world supply of soybeans. In Paraguay, increased crushing capacity and higher production of soybeans in 2012–13 and 2013–14 are forecast to increase the crush to around 3.5 million tonnes. Two new crushing plants will commence operations this year, raising total crushing capacity to around 4 million tonnes. It is expected that most of the soybean oil and meal coming from the higher crush in Paraguay will be exported as there is limited domestic demand for these products.

Canola crush is forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2013–14 to around 59 million tonnes. In China, the world’s second largest canola crusher, crush is forecast to increase by 2 per cent to 15.3 million tonnes, supported by an increase in crushing capacity and higher imports of canola seed. Additionally, canola crush in Canada is expected to reach around 7 million tonnes in 2013–14 in response to high domestic and export demand for canola oil and canola meal.

42

Oilseeds


Soybeans supply and use, Paraguay

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

ProductionExportsCrush

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Sunflower seed crush is forecast to rise by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to around 35 million tonnes. According to the European Commission, sunflower seed crush in the European Union is likely to rise by 12 per cent in 2013–14 to 6.6 million tonnes. This reflects higher domestic production of sunflower seed and strong demand for sunflower seed meal for livestock feed.

Record oilseed consumption in 2013–14World oilseeds consumption is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 478 million tonnes. Oilseeds crush is forecast to account for around 86 per cent of total consumption.

World consumption of vegetable oils is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to 162 million tonnes, driven by higher consumption in developing countries and industrial demand. World industrial use of vegetable oils (primarily biodiesel) is forecast to rise by 2 per cent in 2013–14 to 37.5 million tonnes. Industrial consumption of vegetable oils is expected to increase in Argentina as the biodiesel admixture mandate is raised gradually from 7 per cent to 10 per cent between April and June 2013. The decision to increase the mandate follows a fire at the main oil refinery in Argentina, which created a fuel shortage and raised reliance on imports. Additionally, the Argentinean biodiesel industry was suffering a downturn after an EU anti-dumping inquiry reduced export demand.

Total world consumption of protein meal, which is mostly for stock feed, is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to 274 million tonnes with consumption of soybean, rapeseed and sunflower meal all expected to increase. In the Russian Federation, consumption of protein meal is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to almost 5 million tonnes, driven by growing demand from the pork and poultry industries. These industries have expanded substantially over the past decade, leading to increasing domestic demand for protein meals, particularly soybean meal and sunflower seed meal.

43

Oilseeds


Protein meal consumption, Russian Federation

OtherSun�ower seed mealSoybean meal

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

1

2

3

4

5

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

World trade to riseWorld trade in oilseeds is forecast to rise by 10 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 122 million tonnes, driven by expected record production and a forecast fall in world oilseed prices.

Soybean exports are forecast to increase by 10 per cent to 105 million tonnes, driven by an expected increase in demand for soybean oil and meal.

Canola exports are forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to 11.3 million tonnes, supported by strong demand and higher production in Canada. China is likely to increase imports of canola in 2013–14, reflecting relaxed restrictions on imports from Canada and Australia. In 2009 China placed restrictions on canola imports from Canada and Australia after some shipments tested positive for the fungus blackleg. Shipments from Canada resumed in 2010 to a restricted number of processing plants in areas in China where rapeseed is not grown. In early 2013 three additional crushing plants were approved to process shipments from Canada. Australian canola shipments to China resumed in May 2013 after an import protocol was finalised between Australia and China.

World trade in sunflower seed is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2013–14 to 1.6 million tonnes, largely as a result of increased supplies available for export and increasing demand.

Stocks-to-use ratio still low for canolaWorld closing stocks of oilseeds are forecast to rise by 13 per cent in 2013–14 to 79 million tonnes, with the largest increase forecast for soybeans. Record soybean production is expected to exceed consumption, leading to a 15 per cent increase in stocks to around 70 million tonnes. This is slightly below the record in 2010–11. World canola stocks are forecast to increase by 6 per cent to 3.2 million tonnes, following a significant fall in 2012–13. The stocks-to-use ratio for canola is forecast to remain relatively low at around 5.1 per cent, compared with an average of 11 per cent for the five years to 2011–12. World sunflower seed closing stocks are forecast to rise by 18 per cent to 1.7 million tonnes, reflecting higher world production.

44

Oilseeds


World canola closing stocks

Mt

Stocks

Stocks-to-use ratio (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

%

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Australian canola area to fall in 2013–14The area sown to canola is forecast to fall by 17 per cent in 2013–14 to 2.5 million hectares. This reflects a forecast fall in area planted in south-eastern Australia, largely the result of low levels of soil moisture and insufficient rainfall during the planting window. The area planted to canola is forecast to decline by 34 per cent in New South Wales to 650 000 hectares, 33 per cent in Victoria to 390 000 hectares, and 18 per cent in South Australia to 238 000 hectares. In contrast, the area planted to canola in Western Australia is forecast to increase by 6 per cent to 1.2 million hectares, reflecting favourable seasonal conditions during the planting window.

Australian canola production is forecast to decline by 17 per cent in 2013–14 to 3.2 million tonnes, as the fall in area planted is expected to more than offset a forecast marginally higher average yield. Although the current outlook for seasonal conditions (June to August) favours above average yields in major cropping regions across Australia, low soil moisture in many regions means that timely and sufficient rainfall during the rest of the season will be critical.

Record exports in 2012–13In the first 10 months of the 2012–13 financial year the volume of Australian canola exports increased year-on-year by 59 per cent to more than 3 million tonnes. This is 30 per cent larger than the volume of canola exported in 2011–12 as a whole. For 2012–13 as a whole canola exports are forecast to increase by 47 per cent to a record 3.4 million tonnes. Export earnings from canola are forecast to increase by 50 per cent to around $2 billion.

So far in the year, Belgium was the largest export destination for Australian canola, accounting for almost 30 per cent of shipments. Other major destinations included Pakistan and the Netherlands. Additionally, Australian exports to China resumed early this year. In April 2013, 40 000 tonnes of Australian canola was exported to China, the first shipment since 2009. Further shipments to China are expected over the coming months.

45

Oilseeds


Oilseeds outlook

Oilseeds outlookOilseedsoutlook%

unit 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f changeunit 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f changeWorldWorldProduction Mt 438 463 487 5.2ProductionConsumption Mt 455 459 478 4 1Consumption Mt 455 459 478 4.1oilseed meal Mt 257 262 274 4 6– oilseed meal Mt 257 262 274 4.6

bl il– vegetable oil Mt 150 155 162 4.5gExports Mt 109 111 122 9 9Exports Mt 109 111 122 9.9Closing stocks Mt 65 70 79 12 9Closing stocks Mt 65 70 79 12.9St k t ti % 14 15 17 13 3Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 14 15 17 13.3Soybeans indicator price a US$/t 506 596 520 – 12.8Soybeans indicator price a $/Canola indicator price b US$/t 621 629 605 – 3.8Canola indicator price b US$/t 621 629 605 – 3.8

A t liAustraliaTotal production kt 5 289 5 487 4 835 – 11.9Total production kt 5 289 5 487 4 835 11.9– winter kt 3 440 3 912 3 244 – 17.1– winter kt 3 440 3 912 3 244 17.1– summer kt 1 849 1 576 1 590 0 9– summer kt 1 849 1 576 1 590 0.9

CanolaProduction kt 3 427 3 898 3 230 – 17.1Production kt 3 427 3 898 3 230 17.1Exports c kt 2 323 3 413 2 352 – 31.1Exports c kt 2 323 3 413 2 352 – 31.1– value $m 1 344 2 011 1 331 – 33 8– value $m 1 344 2 011 1 331 – 33.8P iPrice c (delivered Melbourne) A$/t 521 560 545 – 2.7 (delivered Melbourne) $/

a Soybeans, US fob Gulf, July–June. b Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg, July–June. c July–June years. f ABARES forecast. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World, Hamburg; United States Department of Agriculture






In 2013–14 the volume of canola exports is forecast to decline by 31 per cent to 2.4 million tonnes, reflecting expected lower domestic production and stocks. The value of canola exports is forecast to decline by 34 per cent to $1.3 million, driven by lower shipments and a forecast fall in canola export prices.

Australian canola exports by destination, July to April (’000 tonnes)

2010–11 2011–12 2012–13

Belgium 128 453 829

Netherlands 635 871 605

Pakistan 2 78 496

United Arab Emirates 33 35 360

France 46 45 281

Germany 177 276 176

Bangladesh 9 15 104

Japan 66 47 100

China 0 0 40

Other 9 71 22

Total 1105 1891 3013


Lower sugar prices in 2013–14The world indicator price for raw sugar (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) is forecast to average US15 cents a pound in 2013–14 (October to September), 17 per cent lower than in 2012–13. The forecast price decline reflects a forecast of another large world sugar surplus (production less consumption) in 2013–14, the fourth in a row, lifting the world stocks-to-use ratio to the highest level since 2003–04. The forecast price, if realised, will be the lowest in five years, but above the average of US14.5 cents a pound (in constant 2012–13 dollars) over the 10 years to 2011–12.

Indicator price, Intercontinental Exchange (daily, ended 13 June 2013)

USc/lbJun

2013Jan

2013Aug2012

Mar2012

Nov2011

Jun2011

Jan2011

Aug2010

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

SugarBenjamin K Agbenyegah

47

Sugar


World sugar indicators

Production

Consumption

Mt2012–13USc/lb

Indicator price(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

40

80

120

160

200

6

12

18

24

30

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

Record world sugar production in 2013–14World sugar production is forecast to increase to a record 182.2 million tonnes in 2013–14, 500 000 tonnes more than in 2012–13. The forecast increase largely reflects rises in world sugarcane plantings in recent years in response to favourable world prices, particularly in Brazil. Larger sugar production in Brazil, Thailand, China and Australia is forecast to be only partially offset by lower production in Europe, the United States, India and Mexico in 2013–14.

Forecast change in world sugar production

2013–14f

2012–13f

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

0

–2

2

4

6

8

world

other

United States

Thailand

Mexico

India

European Union

Eastern Europe

China

Brazil

Australia

48

Sugar


Sugar production in Brazil is forecast to increase by around 7 per cent in 2013–14 (October to September) to a record 43.5 million tonnes. The forecast increase is driven by a rise in sugarcane planting and a renewal of old sugarcane plantings in response to favourable world sugar prices and recovery from adverse seasonal conditions encountered in 2012–13.

The proportion of sugar cane to be used to produce sugar, rather than ethanol, in Brazil is forecast to decline by 2 percentage points in 2013–14 to 48 per cent. This decline is based on a recent increase in the mandatory blending ratio of anhydrous ethanol with gasoline from 20 per cent to 25 per cent, effective from 1 May 2013. Brazilian domestic sugar prices are currently below ethanol parity and this is expected to favour using a larger proportion of cane for ethanol rather than sugar production.

Sugar cane production and allocation, Brazil

Cane production

Sugar production

Mt %

Sugar share (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

Chinese sugar production is forecast to increase by around 5 per cent in 2013–14 to 14.6 million tonnes. The forecast reflects an assumed 15 per cent increase in average yields, more than offsetting the effects of an estimated 10 per cent decline in sugar plantings in 2013–14. Lower world sugar prices are causing Chinese farmers to move away from cane and sugar beet production into alternatives, such as corn, rice, cassava, vegetables and horticulture.

Sugar production in Thailand is forecast to be around 10.6 million tonnes in 2013–14, 2.4 per cent more than in 2012–13. The forecast increase is based on planted areas similar to 2012–13 and an assumed recovery from the drought-affected yields of 2012–13.

In India, sugar production is forecast to decline by 5 per cent in 2013–14—the first decline in five years—to 25.3 million tonnes, reflecting an estimated 5 per cent reduction in cane plantings. Apart from lower prices, another contributing factor to the decline in plantings was low carryover of irrigation water from the poor 2012 monsoon. The monsoon that usually starts in early June is a crucial determinant of Indian sugar production. The Indian Department of Meteorology is forecasting normal levels of rainfall for the 2013 monsoon.

49

Sugar


In the United States, sugar production is forecast to decrease by 9 per cent in 2013–14 to 7.6 million tonnes. This mainly reflects a 1.5 per cent reduction in sugar beet plantings compared with 2012–13 and around 8 per cent lower average yields. The forecast decline in sugar beet planting is mainly driven by unusually wet and cold conditions at the time of planting.

Mexican sugar production is forecast to decline by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to 6.1 million tonnes. The forecast decline reflects a 5 per cent reduction in sugarcane plantings and lower yields due to dry planting conditions.

Sugar production in the European Union is forecast to be 16.8 million tonnes in 2013–14, 3 per cent lower than in 2012–13. EU sugar policy reforms, phased in from 2006, have led to lower EU sugar production (see box).

Sugar production in Europe, excluding the European Union, is forecast to decrease by 14 per cent in 2013–14 to 8.1 million tonnes. Sugar production in the Russian Federation and Ukraine is forecast to decline by 12 per cent to 4.5 million tonnes and 13 per cent to 2.1 million tonnes, respectively. Reduced plantings are only partially offset by expected higher yields.

Sugar reforms in the European UnionMax Foster

The European Union instituted a number of reforms to the Common Market Organisation for sugar in 2006 aimed at reducing EU sugar production to sustainable levels. EU sugar policy reforms that were phased in from 2006 have led to lower EU sugar production.

• Sugar production quotas (refined) were reduced from 17.4 million tonnes in 2005–06 (25 countries) to 13.3 million tonnes (14.5 million tonnes in raw sugar equivalent) from 2006–07 (27 countries), using incentive payments to encourage voluntary renunciations of quotas by growers.

• The guaranteed minimum price paid to sugar beet growers for quota sugar production was reduced from €47.7 a tonne of beet to €26.3 a tonne.

• The reference price for white sugar was lowered from €631.9 a tonne in 2007–08 to €541.5 on 1 October 2008 and then €404.4 on 1 October 2009. Private storage aid can be activated if EU market prices fall below 85 per cent of the reference price, in effect setting a floor for EU sugar prices.

• Quotas on duty free imports from certain African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries and least developed countries (LDCs) were removed from October 2009. A safeguard clause was introduced, applying until 2015, which is triggered when EU sugar imports exceed 3.5 million tonnes (refined) in a single year. The European Union also operates a number of reduced or zero-duty tariff import quotas for sugar that total slightly over 1 million tonnes, but a very high tariff is applied to sugar imports from all other countries.

EU sugar production remains above its quota of 13.3 million tonnes. Strict rules apply to the use of over-quota EU sugar production. It can be exported up to the World Trade Organization limit of 1.35 million tonnes (refined); used for biofuel production or other industrial non-food uses; or counted against next year’s quota for sugar production.

The reforms have been successful in lowering EU sugar production. The European Union has shifted from being a net exporter of sugar to being a net importer, with EU sugar consumption now higher than production.

continued...

50

Sugar


Sugar reforms in the European Union continued

European Union sugar production, consumption and trade a

Mt

ProductionConsumptionExportsImports

5

10

15

20

25

a Raw equivalent; 27 countries in all years.

2012–13

2011–12

2010–11

2009–10

2008–09

2007–08

2006–07

2005–06

2004–05

The reforms initially led to a narrowing in the gap between world and registered EU sugar prices (the prices reported paid by food manufacturers). More recently, the gap between EU and world sugar prices has widened again. This is due to countries with preferential access to the EU sugar market being unable to meet the EU sugar deficit at world prices and the prohibitively high duty on sugar imports from other countries.

European Union white sugar prices, monthly

€/t

Import price fromACP countriesIntervention priceRegistered priceWhite sugar, nearbyfutures price, no. 407contract, London

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Apr2013

Apr2012

Apr2011

Apr2010

Apr2009

Apr2008

Apr2007

In response, the European Union has introduced a number of allowable temporary measures, including opening additional import quotas at reduced tariff rates and diverting over-quota sugar to food uses.

However, without large-scale easing of import restrictions from non-ACP/LDC countries, EU domestic sugar prices are likely to remain much higher than world sugar prices over at least the next year, based on expected sugar production in the ACP and LDC countries.

51

Sugar


Strong world sugar consumption growthWorld sugar consumption is forecast to be 176.4 million tonnes in 2013–14, 2.7 per cent higher than in 2012–13, based on forecast lower sugar prices and growth in world population and incomes, particularly in China, India and Brazil. The forecast consumption growth, if realised, will be the highest in eight years and above the average of 2.2 per cent for the 10 years to 2011–12.

World sugar surplus/deficit and stocks-to-use ratio

Stocks-to-use ratio (right axis)

Surplus/decit

%

–10

–5

0

Mt

5

10

15

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

f ABARES forecast.

World sugar trade to grow in 2013–14World sugar exports are forecast to grow by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to 58.7 million tonnes, reflecting increases in world sugar supplies available for exports in Brazil, Thailand and Australia and strong import demand for sugar by the Russian Federation and Indonesia.

Brazilian sugar exports are forecast to increase by 11 per cent in 2012–13 to a record 29.4 million tonnes. This forecast increase is based on a forecast record production and continued strong import demand for Brazilian raw sugar.

Thailand’s sugar exports are forecast to increase by 24 per cent in 2012–13 to 8.5 million tonnes, reflecting an increase in the supply of sugar available for export after adverse seasonal conditions last season.

Sugar imports into the United States are forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2013–14 to 3.8 million tonnes in response to lower production.

Sugar imports into the Russian Federation are forecast to be 1.5 million tonnes in 2013–14, 97 per cent more than in 2012–13. The forecast increase is in response to forecast lower domestic sugar production.

In Indonesia, sugar imports are forecast to increase by 16 per cent in 2013–14 to 3.5 million tonnes. The forecast increase is driven by an expected rise in demand for sugar, while domestic sugar production is forecast to grow by only 4 per cent to 2.7 million tonnes.

52

Sugar


Forecast changes in world sugar net exports, by country

2013–14f

2012–13f

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

–4–3–2–1

1

0

2345

worldother

Thailand Mexico

India European

Union

Brazil Australia

Record world sugar stocks in 2013–14World closing stocks of sugar are forecast to reach a record 75.3 million tonnes in 2013–14, 8 per cent larger than in 2012–13. The world stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to rise by 2.2 percentage points in 2013–14 to around 43 per cent, well above the average of 40 per cent for the 10 years to 2011–12. These rising world stocks will continue to place downward pressure on world sugar prices.

Australian sugar production larger in 2013–14Australian sugar production is forecast to be 4.5 million tonnes in 2013–14, 6 per cent larger than in 2012–13. This forecast is based on an estimated 2 per cent increase in the area harvested and an assumed 4 per cent rise in average sugar yields.

Queensland Sugar Limited (QSL), the marketer of more than 90 per cent of Australia’s raw sugar exports, forecasts its gross harvest pool return in 2013–14 to be $380 a tonne IPS (International Polarity Scale), down from $429 in 2012–13 and $518 a tonne IPS in 2011–12. However, QSL notes that the final harvest pool return depends on future movements in world sugar prices and the Australian exchange rate. The forecast return for 2013–14 is still higher than the 10-year average to 2008–09 for the seasonal pool of $366 a tonne IPS in 2012–13 dollars (QSL’s seasonal pool arrangement was replaced in 2012–13 by a harvest pool arrangement).

Based on the current price forecast and assumed sugar yields from cane, the average mill-gate return to Australian cane growers in 2013–14 is forecast to be around $29 a tonne, compared with $33 a tonnes in 2012–13. The decline in returns to growers reflects forecast lower world sugar prices in 2013–14, partially offset by an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar.

Australian sugar exports are forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2013–14 to 3.2 million tonnes, driven by a forecast increase in production. However, the value of Australian sugar exports is forecast to decline to $1.29 billion in 2013–14, compared with $1.4 billion in 2012–13, due to lower world sugar prices, despite an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar.

53

Sugar


Australian sugar production, exports and returns to cane growers

Production

Exports

kt2012–13$/t

Return to cane growers (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sugar outlook

Sugar outlookSugaroutlook%

unit 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f changeunit 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f change

W ldWorld a Production Mt 174.3 181.7 182.2 0.3Production– Brazil Mt 36.9 40.6 43.5 7.1 Brazil Mt 36.9 40.6 43.5 7.1Consumption Mt 168 0 171 7 176 4 2 7Consumption Mt 168.0 171.7 176.4 2.7Exports Mt 54 3 55 9 58 7 5 0Exports Mt 54.3 55.9 58.7 5.0Cl i t k Mt 63 8 69 5 75 3 8 3Closing stocks Mt 63.8 69.5 75.3 8.3Change in stocks Mt 5.4 5.7 5.8 1.8gStocks‐to‐use ratio % 38 40 43 5.4Stocks to use ratio % 38 40 43 5.4Price USc/lb 22.7 18.0 15.0 – 16.7Price USc/lb 22.7 18.0 15.0 – 16.7

Australia bArea ’000 ha 370 380 388 2.1Area 000 ha 370 380 388 .Production c kt 3 683 4 300 4 541 5.6Production c kt 3 683 4 300 4 541 5.6Exports kt 2 572 2 996 3 241 8 2Exports kt 2 572 2 996 3 241 8.2

al e A$ 1 556 1 397 1 290 7 7– value A$m 1 556 1 397 1 290 – 7.7a October–September years. b July–June years. c Raw tonnes actual. f ABARES forecast. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Sugar Organizationa October–September years. b July–June years. c Raw tonnes actual. f ABARES forecast. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Sugar Organizationa October–September years. b July–June years. c Raw tonnes actual. f ABARES forecast. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Sugar Organizationa October–September years. b July–June years. c Raw tonnes actual. f ABARES forecast. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Sugar Organizationa October–September years. b July–June years. c Raw tonnes actual. f ABARES forecast. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Sugar Organizationa October–September years. b July–June years. c Raw tonnes actual. f ABARES forecast. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Sugar Organization


Modest recovery in world cotton prices in 2013–14The world indicator price for cotton (Cotlook ‘A’ index) is forecast to rise by 3.4 per cent in 2013–14 (August to July) to average US90 cents a pound. The forecast increase reflects expected lower world cotton production and growth in world cotton consumption in 2013–14, combined with an assumed continuing build-up of China’s strategic cotton reserve. The stocks-to-use ratio for the world as a whole is forecast to rise to a record in 2013–14. However, if China is excluded the ratio would be the lowest since 2003–04.

With China holding 57 per cent of the world’s cotton stocks at the end of 2012–13 its cotton stock management policies will be an important determinant of world cotton prices in 2013–14. It is assumed that China will continue to accumulate cotton stocks in 2013–14, mainly through purchasing domestic cotton production, to support returns to domestic cotton growers. However, if China were to stop purchases of cotton for stock building, world cotton prices in 2013–14 could be significantly lower than currently forecast.

Daily cotton prices, China

USc/lb

China Cotton Index (328)

Cotlook ‘A’ index

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jun2013

Dec2012

Jun2012

Dec2012

Jun2011

Dec2011

Aug2010

CottonBenjamin K Agbenyegah

55

Cotton


World cotton indicators (annual)

Production

Consumption

Mt2012–13USc/lb

Indicator price(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

5

10

15

20

25

30

30

60

90

120

150

180

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

World cotton production lower in 2013–14World cotton production is forecast to decline by around 3 per cent in 2013–14 to 25.7 million tonnes, based on an estimated 3 per cent fall in world cotton plantings in response to lower cotton prices. Lower cotton production is forecast for China, the United States and Turkey in 2013–14, more than offsetting forecast production increases in India, Pakistan and Brazil.

Forecast changes in world cotton production, by country

2013–14f

2012–13f

Mt

–0.75

–0.5

–0.25

0

0.25

0.5

world

other

TurkeyAustralia

UzbekistanBrazil

Pakistan

United States

India

China

f ABARES forecast.

56

Cotton


In the United States, cotton production is forecast to decline by 19 per cent in 2013–14 to 3 million tonnes in response to lower cotton prices and relatively poor soil moisture profiles, particularly in the dryland cotton growing areas of Texas, due to adverse seasonal conditions. The area planted to cotton in the United States in 2013–14 is estimated to decline by 19 per cent to 4.1 million hectares, the lowest in four years. The abandonment rate (the area planted but not harvested because of poor yields) is forecast to be 16 per cent in 2013–14, down 3.5 percentage points from 2012–13, but still high compared with the average of 12.5 per cent for the 10 years to 2011–12. The average lint yield in 2013–14 is forecast to be around 751 tonnes a hectare.

Cotton area and lint yield in the United States

Area planted

Area harvested

Mha t/ha

Lint yield (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Cotton production in China is forecast to decrease to 7.4 million tonnes in 2013–14, around 3 per cent lower than in 2012–13. This reflects a forecast 4 per cent reduction in planted area, which more than offsets the effects of a forecast small increase in average yield. Despite the Chinese Government’s strong cotton support price program, rising costs of production, in particularly labour costs, are constraining growth in cotton planting.

In India, cotton production is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2013–14 to 6 million tonnes, based on an estimated 2 per cent rise in area planted to cotton and a forecast 4 per cent increase in average yield. The forecast increase in average yield reflects a return to more normal yields, following a monsoon season that in 2012 delivered rain 8 per cent below the long-term average.

Cotton production in Pakistan is forecast to be 2.2 million tonnes in 2013–14, around 10 per cent more than in 2012–13. The forecast reflects an assumed 14 per cent increase in average yields, more than offsetting the effects of an estimated 3 per cent decline in cotton plantings in 2013–14. The assumption of higher yields is based on a return to more normal seasonal conditions in 2013–14. Improved seasonal conditions reduce susceptibility to the leaf curl virus that adversely affected Pakistani cotton yields in 2012–13.

57

Cotton


In 2013–14 Brazil’s cotton production is forecast to increase by 21 per cent to 1.5 million tonnes. The forecast increase reflects an estimated 11 per cent increase in cotton plantings in response to relatively higher domestic cotton prices and an assumed 10 per cent rise in average yield, based on adoption of new genetically modified cotton varieties. Brazil is an important participant in the world cotton market, with a well-developed marketing system for cotton, but insect and weed pest problems have hindered cotton industry development in recent years (see box).

Cotton industry in BrazilBrazil is an important producer, consumer and exporter of world cotton. It has been the fifth largest world producer and consumer of the fibre since 2003–04. Brazil has also ranged from the world’s third to fifth largest exporter in recent years, competing with the United States in the Asian and European markets. On average, it accounted for around 6 per cent of world cotton production and exports and 4 per cent of world cotton consumption in the 10 years to 2012–13.

Cotton indicators, Brazil

f ABARES forecast.

Mt

consumptionExports

Production

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

1995–96

1992–93

0.25

0.5

0.75

1.0

1.25

1.5

1.75

2.0

Cotton contributes significantly to Brazil’s agricultural production and foreign exchange earnings. In 2010 the gross value of cotton production in Brazil was US$7.1 billion, accounting for 2.3 per cent of the total value of Brazilian agricultural production.

Brazil has the potential to expand planted cotton areas and to improve lint yields and lint quality by investing in irrigation projects. Currently less than 10 per cent of Brazil’s cotton is irrigated.

New genetically modified cotton varieties—to be released in Brazil in 2013–14—will enable more effective control of insect and weed pests. Brazil could, as a result, enjoy renewed expansions in production over the medium term. Since 2006 Brazil has approved 12 genetically modified cotton varieties for commercial use. The adoption rate of genetically modified varieties is expected to reach more than 60 per cent of total plantings in 2013–14, compared with 40 per cent in 2012–13. The new varieties have two Bacillus thuringiensis genes that confer resistance to attack by many insects (particularly lepidopterans) and/or double copies of genes that confer herbicide tolerance up to the reproductive stage of cotton plant development.

continued...

58

Cotton


Weak growth in world cotton consumption in 2013–14World cotton consumption is forecast to increase by 2.1 per cent in 2013–14 to 23.9 million tonnes. This modest increase largely reflects forecast economic growth in developing countries, particularly China and India. However, world cotton consumption growth is being constrained by strong competition from alternative fibres, particularly polyester, partly the result of cotton prices remaining above polyester prices.

Cotton industry in Brazil continued

The Brazilian Government sets a minimum support price for cotton at the beginning of each season, based on expected domestic and international supply and demand. The government can either intervene in the auction market at any time to buy cotton at the set minimum support price or through a marketing program called Prêmio Equalizador Pago ao Produtor (that is Equalising Premium Paid to Grower), with the premium at the difference between the minimum support price and the auction price. In 2009 the program subsidised around 65 per cent of Brazil’s cotton production. However, world prices in recent years have been higher than the minimum support price, which has not changed since 2004.

Brazilian prices for cotton and government cotton stocks

Governmentstocks

ktBrazilian real/lb

Minimum support price (right axis)

Auction price (right axis)

100

200

300

400

500

20

40

60

80

100

Apr2013

Sep2010

Mar2008

Sep2005

Mar2003

Sep2000

Over the past decade Brazil’s cotton processing industry has contracted under increasing pressure from cheap textile imports, particularly from China and India. In 2005 China entered into an agreement to limit its textile exports to Brazil through a quota arrangement. This agreement expired in 2008 and Brazil and China have not reached a new agreement.

The decline of Brazil’s textile industry is the main reason that Brazil’s raw cotton exports have increased sharply in recent years.

59

Cotton


Cotton and polyester shares in world fibre consumption

%

Cotton share Polyester share

25

30

35

40

45

50

2014f201020062002199819941990

f ABARES forecast.

World weekly apparel fibre prices

USc/lb

Cotlook ‘A’ indicatorPolyester staple, China(cotton equivalent)

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

June2013

Dec2012

Aug2012

Mar2012

Oct2011

Record world cotton stocks in 2013–14World closing stocks of cotton are forecast to increase by 9 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 20.2 million tonnes, equivalent to world mill use for more than 10 months. The world cotton stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to increase for the fourth year in a row to a record 84.4 per cent.

China is forecast to account for much of the increase in world cotton stocks in 2013–14 under the assumption of a continuation of its policy to build its strategic cotton reserve, albeit at a slower rate than in 2012–13. In 2012–13 China added 6.5 million tonnes of cotton purchased from its domestic crop to its national reserve. China’s share of world cotton stocks is forecast to increase to 63 per cent by the end of 2013–14.

If China is excluded, the world stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to decline to 46.4 per cent by the end of 2013–14, the lowest since 2003–04.

60

Cotton


Stocks-to-use ratio for cotton

%

ChinaWorldWorld excluding China

40

80

120

160

200

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

f ABARES forecast.

World trade lower in 2012–13World cotton exports are forecast to be 8.6 million tonnes in 2013–14, 12 per cent lower than in 2012–13. This forecast decrease reflects expected lower cotton production and higher domestic consumption in major exporting countries, particularly the United States, India and Brazil, and a forecast lower import demand by China.

China’s cotton imports are forecast to decline by around 34 per cent in 2013–14 to 2.6 million tonnes, as rebuilding of China’s strategic reserve slows. The forecast Chinese cotton imports, if realised, will be less than half the record 5.3 million tonnes imported in 2011–12 and the lowest in four years.

Cotton exports by the United States—the world’s largest exporter—are forecast to decrease by 13 per cent in 2013–14 to 2.5 million tonnes, reflecting forecast lower domestic production.

In India, cotton exports are forecast to be 1.2 million tonnes in 2013–14, 21 per cent lower than in 2012–13, reflecting a reduction in cotton supplies available for export and lower import demand from China, which was very strong in 2011–12 and 2012–13.

Australian cotton production largely unchanged in 2013–14Australian cotton production (harvested from March to July) is forecast to remain largely unchanged at 995 000 tonnes, compared with an estimated 992 000 tonnes in 2012–13 which was Australia’s second largest cotton harvest. The forecast cotton production in 2013–14 is expected to be supported by plentiful supplies of irrigation water and favourable gross margins compared with alternative irrigated crops. An assumed return to more normal soil moisture profiles in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales should enable dryland cotton plantings to recover to 51 000 hectares in 2013–14, up from the small plantings of 23 000 hectares in 2012–13.

61

Cotton


The average storage level of public irrigation dams serving the Australian cotton-growing regions was 72 per cent of capacity on 14 June 2013, down from around 90 per cent at the same time in 2012. Under the assumption of favourable seasonal conditions, normal seasonal inflows into the main cotton irrigation dams are expected between now and the end of the cotton planting window that will extend from September to mid-November 2013.

Storage levels of main irrigation dams, at 14 June 2013

%

20

New South Wales Queensland

40

60

80

100

120

Bear

dmor

e(S

t Geo

rge)

othe

r

othe

r

Fairb

airn

(Em

eral

d)

Lesl

ie(D

arlin

g D

owns

)

Burr

endo

ng(M

acqu

arie

)

Pind

ari

(Mac

inty

re)

Keep

it(N

amoi

)

Gle

nlyo

n(M

acin

tyre

)

Cope

ton

(Gw

ydir)

20122013

2010

Recovery in Australian cotton pricesThe return to Australian cotton growers at the gin-gate is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2013–14 to $472 a bale (227 kilograms) of lint (including the value of cottonseed and net of ginning costs), reflecting the forecast modest rise in world cotton prices and an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar. The forecast return to cotton growers is lower than the average of the 10 years to 2011–12 of $560 a bale, but still favourable when compared with returns for production alternatives.

Forward cash prices for lint on offer to Australian cotton growers at 17 May 2013 were around $450 a bale for 2013 delivery (2013–14 crop) and $449 a bale for 2014 delivery.

Australian cotton exports lower in 2013–14Australian cotton exports are forecast to be 998 000 tonnes in 2013–14, 12 per cent lower than the record 1.1 million tonnes of 2012–13. This forecast decrease reflects lower cotton production in 2012–13 and 2013–14. Almost all Australian cotton production is exported and the typical March to June harvest period means Australian cotton production in one financial year is exported across two financial years. Based on current forecasts for cotton production around the world, Australia would maintain its position as the world’s third largest exporter of cotton, behind the United States and India.

62

Cotton


Australian cotton production, exports and gin-gate returns

Production

Exports

kt2012–13$/bale

Gin-gate return a (right axis)

a Value of lint and cottonseed, less ginning costs. f ABARES forecast.

300

600

900

1200

1500

200

400

600

800

1000

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

1995–96

Cotton outlook

% unit 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f changeunit 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f change

WorldP d ti Mt 27 2 26 4 25 7 2 7World aProduction Mt 27.2 26.4 25.7 – 2.7Consumption Mt 22.3 23.4 23.9 2.1Consumption Exports Mt 10.0 9.8 8.6 – 12.2Exports Mt 10.0 9.8 8.6 12.2Closing stocks Mt 15 5 18 5 20 2 9 2Closing stocks Mt 15.5 18.5 20.2 9.2Stocks to use ratio % 69 4 78 8 84 4 7 1Stocks‐to‐use ratio % 69.4 78.8 84.4 7.1C tl k ’A’ i d US /lb 100 1 87 0 90 0 3 4Cotlook ’A’ index USc/lb 100.1 87.0 90.0 3.4

Australia bArea harvested ’000 ha 600 442 445 0 7Australia bArea harvested ’000 ha 600 442 445 0.7Lint production kt 1 198 992 995 0 3Lint production kt 1 198 992 995 0.3E t k 994 1 123 988 12 0Exports kt 994 1 123 988 – 12.0p– value A$m 2 736 2 352 2 174 – 7.6 value $ 36 35 6a August–July years. c July–June years. f ABARES forecast. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculturea August–July years. c July–June years. f ABARES forecast. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculturea August–July years. c July–June years. f ABARES forecast. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculturea August–July years. c July–June years. f ABARES forecast. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculture

AgricultureLivestock


Beef and vealClay Mifsud and Caitlin Murray

The Australian weighted average saleyard price of beef cattle is forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2013–14 to 280 cents a kilogram (dressed weight). Increased supplies of slaughter cattle into saleyards and lower demand for restocker cattle are expected to continue placing downward pressure on cattle prices in the short term. Internationally, demand for lower value frozen beef is expected to continue rising, while demand for higher value chilled beef is expected to fall. This is likely to adversely affect average export prices, which will in turn place downward pressure on domestic saleyard prices.

Average Australian cattle prices are estimated to have fallen by 10 per cent in 2012–13 to 296 cents a kilogram (dressed weight), the lowest yearly average in real terms since 1998–99. Saleyard prices averaged 6 per cent lower than the previous year over the first six months of 2012–13, with sharper declines occurring from January onwards. After a failed wet season in the north and little prospect of an autumn break, cattle throughput and slaughter increased. With widespread rainfall deficiencies, many producers began selling cattle and as a result of the increased supply prices declined. Adding further pressure to markets, fewer producers were in a position to restock resulting in lower demand for younger store cattle.

Cattle slaughter and weighted average saleyard price, Australia

millionhead

Slaughter

Saleyard price(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

2012–13Ac/kg

100

200

300

400

500

2

4

6

8

10

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

65

Beef and veal


Cattle herd to contractThe national cattle herd is estimated to have fallen by 1 per cent in 2012–13 to 28.1 million head, reflecting increased cattle slaughter. Since early 2013 the poorer seasonal conditions in eastern and northern Australia have resulted in many producers not having sufficient pasture to support their herd sizes. As a result, they are sending more of their older cattle to slaughter and purchasing fewer young replacement cattle. In 2013–14 the Australian cattle herd is forecast to fall by 1 per cent to 27.9 million head as producers continue to destock.

Cattle slaughter and beef production to riseAustralian cattle slaughter in 2012–13 is estimated to increase by 7 per cent to 8.4 million head, the first increase in six years. This reflects an estimated 13 per cent increase in female cattle slaughter and a 3 per cent increase in male cattle slaughter. In response to the deteriorating seasonal conditions many producers halted previous efforts to rebuild herds and sent an increasing number of cattle to slaughter, particularly breeding females.

Cattle and calf slaughter, Australia, monthly, nine months to March

’000head

2011–122012–13

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

MarFebJanDecNovOctSepAugJul Apr

Beef and veal production in 2012–13 is estimated to increase by 5 per cent to a record 2.2 million tonnes, reflecting the increase in cattle slaughter. However, growth in production is estimated to be lower than growth in slaughter as a result of a decline in average carcass weights, which reflects the higher proportion of lighter female cattle being slaughtered.

In 2013–14 total cattle and calf slaughter is forecast to increase by a further 4 per cent to 8.7 million head. The proportion of female cattle slaughtered in 2013–14 is expected to rise as producers continue to destock. Higher cattle slaughter will underpin a 3 per cent forecast increase in beef and veal production to 2.3 million tonnes. Increased export demand from the United States and many emerging markets such as China, the Middle East and South-East Asia is forecast to contribute to increased cattle slaughter and beef production.

66

Beef and veal


Record beef export volumesAustralian beef and veal exports are estimated to increase by 7 per cent in 2012–13 to a record 1.015 million tonnes (shipped weight), reflecting greater domestic supply and increased demand from a number of emerging markets. The share of Australian beef and veal production that is exported in 2012–13 is estimated to increase to 67 per cent. Relatively low growth in domestic demand for beef has resulted in most of the increase in production being exported. The major export markets for Australian beef remain Japan, the United States and the Republic of Korea, but exports to smaller and emerging markets in 2012–13 are estimated to comprise 36 per cent of total exports, the highest in more than 25 years. Growth in exports to China and the Middle East has offset a decline in exports to the largest market, Japan.

In 2013–14 Australian beef and veal exports are forecast to increase by 5 per cent to 1.07 million tonnes (shipped weight), in response to increased demand from the United States and emerging markets. In addition, an assumed lower Australian dollar is expected to improve the competitiveness of Australian beef in export markets. The value of beef exports in 2013–14 is forecast to increase by 5 per cent to around $5.1 billion.

Beef and veal exports, Australia

kt

OtherJapan, United Statesand Republic of Korea

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

Increased competition from US beef in JapanAustralian beef and veal exports to Japan are estimated to fall by 8 per cent in 2012–13 to 300 000 tonnes (shipped weight), reflecting increased competition from imports of US beef. Since February 2013 exports of US beef to Japan have increased to their highest in 10 years, coinciding with changes to import policies made by the Japanese Government. From 1 February 2013 Japanese beef imports from the United States can now be sourced from cattle slaughtered at up to 30 months of age; previously a restriction had been in place limiting beef imports from cattle slaughtered at less than 21 months of age. As a result, the proportion of US beef production eligible for export to Japan has increased from 50 per cent to more than 90 per cent.

67

Beef and veal


Beef and veal imports, Japan

kt

OtherNew ZealandUnited StatesAustralia

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

100

200

300

400

500

600

In 2013–14 Australian beef and veal exports to Japan are forecast to fall by 7 per cent to 280 000 tonnes. Total beef imports in Japan are expected to stay relatively unchanged, but the share of US beef in the market is expected to continue rising at the expense of Australian beef. The increased presence of US beef (typically preferred over Australian grain-fed beef because of its higher marbling rates) is expected to result in lower exports of Australian grain-fed beef to Japan.

However, US grain-fed beef is less able to substitute for Australian frozen grass-fed beef, which makes up about 45 per cent of total Australian beef exports to Japan. Increased exports of US beef to Japan is unlikely to significantly affect exports of Australian frozen grass-fed beef over the coming year. This beef is used mainly in the foodservice sector to produce ground beef, and is imported into Japan at a significant price discount to US beef.

US beef imports to rise in 2013–14Australian beef and veal exports to the United States in 2012–13 are estimated to increase by 2 per cent to around 210 000 tonnes (shipped weight). US cow slaughter is estimated to be 2 per cent lower in 2012–13 compared with the previous year; the subsequent shortfall in domestic cow beef production was supplied by increased imports from New Zealand and Australia.

Australian beef exports to the United States have been facing greater competition from exports from New Zealand. Greater supply from New Zealand put downward pressure on US import prices, which resulted in some Australian exporters temporarily redirecting exports to other markets for manufacturing beef, such as China, where average export returns were higher. Adverse seasonal conditions in New Zealand prompted cattle slaughter to increase by an estimated 15 per cent in 2012–13, resulting in an increased supply of beef for export.

68

Beef and veal


Beef and veal imports, United States

OtherNew ZealandCanadaAustralia

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

kt

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Australian beef and veal exports to the United States in 2013–14 are forecast to increase by 10 per cent to 230 000 tonnes (shipped weight), as the supply of cow beef in the United States declines and import prices rise. US cow slaughter is expected to fall over the coming year, which would result in lower domestic supplies for the grinding beef market and increased demand for imports. In particular, slaughter of dairy cows in 2013–14 is expected to decline compared with the previous year. Lower feed grain prices are expected to contribute to an improvement in the milk-to-feed price ratio, resulting in increased incentive for dairy producers to retain remaining herds. The increased US demand for imported manufacturing beef, and an assumed lower Australian exchange rate, is likely to lead to an increase in the 90CL import price in Australian dollar terms.

Republic of KoreaAustralian beef and veal exports to the Republic of Korea are estimated to increase by 11 per cent in 2012–13 to 137 000 tonnes (shipped weight), reflecting the competitive pricing of Australian frozen beef in the Korean import market. Over the first 10 months of 2012–13 the landed price of Australian frozen beef in the Republic of Korea averaged US$4.14 a kilogram, 16 per cent less than the equivalent beef from the United States. In comparison, Australian chilled beef averaged around 6 per cent less than US chilled beef over the same period.

Australian beef and veal exports to the Republic of Korea are forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2013–14 to 142 000 tonnes, underpinned by increased shipments of frozen beef. Frozen beef exports are likely to increase over the coming year as demand in the Republic of Korea continues to rise. This is likely to be partially offset by lower volumes of chilled beef because of increased competition from the United States.

69

Beef and veal


Beef and veal import unit prices, Republic of Korea

$US/kg

United States – chilledAustralia – chilledUnited States – frozenAustralia – frozen

2

4

6

8

10

Mar2013

Dec2012

Sep2012

Jun2012

Mar2012

Dec2011

Sep2011

Jun2011

Mar2011

Dec2010

Sep2010

Imports from Australia and the United States comprise more than 85 per cent of beef imports in the Republic of Korea, and are subject to different tariff rates. Currently, imports of Australian beef are levied at a 40 per cent rate, while imports from the United States are subject to a 34.66 per cent rate which, under the terms negotiated in the Korea–United States Free Trade Agreement, falls by 2.6 per cent a year until reaching zero in 2026. It is unlikely the tariff differential of 5.34 percentage points in 2013 and 8 percentage points in 2014 will significantly affect exports of Australian frozen beef during 2013–14, given the 16 per cent difference in landed price before application of tariffs. However, the closeness in pricing of Australian and US chilled beef before application of tariffs may result in declining demand for Australian chilled beef.

Considerable increase in exports to ChinaAustralian beef and veal exports to China are estimated to increase significantly in 2012–13, to around 92 000 tonnes (shipped weight) (see box). Since September 2012 monthly exports to China have averaged 9000 tonnes, compared with average monthly exports of around 500 tonnes over the five years to August 2012. In 2013–14 exports to China are forecast to increase to around 120 000 tonnes.

Increased exports to South-East AsiaAustralian beef and veal exports to South-East Asia in 2012–13 are estimated to increase by 6 per cent to 95 000 tonnes (shipped weight). Increased exports to the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore have more than offset a 24 per cent decline in exports to Indonesia, which are being restricted by the Indonesian Government’s maintenance of a quota on beef imports. On 27 May 2013 the Indonesian Government announced revised quota arrangements for beef imports, whereby ‘premium Australian beef’ will be exempt from quotas. However, details are not yet known on how ‘premium Australian beef’ will be defined, or how the revised import permits will be distributed.

In 2013–14 Australian beef and veal exports to South-East Asia are forecast to increase by 5 per cent to 100 000 tonnes. Growth in demand for beef in the region is expected to exceed growth in domestic production leading to increased imports, including from Australia.

70

Beef and veal


Australian beef and veal exports to South-East Asia

OtherSingaporeMalaysiaPhilippines

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

kt

20

40

60

80

100

Indonesia

Increased exports to the Middle EastAustralian beef and veal exports to the Middle East are estimated to increase by 52 per cent to a record 47 000 tonnes (shipped weight) in 2012–13, partly reflecting bans placed on imports of beef from Brazil and the United States. Since the announcement of the detection of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in a deceased cow in California in April 2012, the Saudi Government has banned beef imports from the United States. In December 2012 it also placed a ban on beef imports from Brazil, after the announcement of the detection of BSE in a deceased cow in that country. As at June 2013 both import bans remain in place. In 2013–14 Australian beef and veal exports to the Middle East are forecast to rise by a further 6 per cent to 50 000 tonnes.

Australian beef and veal exports to the Middle East

OtherJordanDubaiIran

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

kt

Saudi Arabia

10

20

30

40

50

60

71

Beef and veal


Australian beef and veal exports to ChinaChina has become the fourth largest market for Australian beef and veal exports in 2012–13, with most shipments delivered to ports around the major population centres of Shanghai and Beijing. The significant increase in exports to China reflects a number of factors, including increased numbers of Australian meat processors eligible to export to China, changes to Chinese Government import regulations, and greater Chinese demand for imported beef.

Australian beef and veal exports to China

kt

ChilledFrozen

f ABARES forecast.

20

40

60

80

100

2012–13f

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

Most Australian beef and veal exported to China in 2012–13 has been discharged at ports in the central and north-eastern regions of the country. Just under one-third of exports to China from July 2012 to May 2013 were discharged at Dalian, a city of more than six million people in Liaoning Province, in north-east China. Shanghai was a destination for around 29 per cent of Australian beef exports, while the ports of Tianjin and Xingang—both in close proximity to Beijing—each accounted for around 15 per cent. Exports to ports in southern China have been substantially lower, accounting for less than 8 per cent over the first 11 months of 2012–13.

The supply of Australian beef eligible to be exported to China increased in 2012–13 because of an increase in the number of Australian meat processing facilities approved to export to China. The Chinese Government approves foreign abattoirs on either an individual basis or following an assessment of the systems in place in that country. The number of Australian meat processing facilities approved to export to China has increased by more than 20 over the 12 months to June 2013.

continued...

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Australian beef and veal exports to China continued

Australian beef and veal exports to China (11 months to May 2013), by discharge port

Other 8%

Xingang 15%

Tianjin 17%

Shanghai 29%

Dalian 31%

Australia has relatively favourable access arrangements to the Chinese beef import market compared with many other beef exporters. Imports from Canada are restricted to boneless beef from four meat processing plants, while imports from the United States are currently banned. Restrictions on imports from North America relate to the outbreak of BSE in late 2003. The Chinese Government also placed a ban on beef imports from Brazil after the announcement of the detection of BSE in a deceased cow in that country in late 2012. These restrictions have contributed to higher imports from other suppliers, such as Australia and New Zealand.

Stable production and rising domestic beef prices have resulted in demand for imported beef in China rising significantly over the past year. Imports over the first four months of 2013 have exceeded imports for the whole of 2012. Between January and April 2013 Australia accounted for 47 per cent of Chinese beef imports, with Uruguay and New Zealand accounting for the next largest shares (25 per cent and 19 per cent, respectively).

73

Beef and veal


Beef and veal outlook

Beef and veal outlookBeefandvealoutlook%

unit 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f%

changeunit 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f change

Cattle numbers a million 28.4 28.1 27.9 – 0.7– beef million 25.7 25.4 25.2 – 0.8 beef million 25.7 25.4 25.2 0.8Slaughterings ’000 7 873 8 395 8 700 3 6Slaughterings 000 7 873 8 395 8 700 3.6Production kt 2 115 2 230 2 300 3 1Production kt 2 115 2 230 2 300 3.1E ( hi d i h )Exports (shipped weight)– to United States kt 205 210 230 9.5p ( pp g ) to United States kt 205 210 230 9.5– to Japan kt 326 300 280 – 6.7– to Japan kt 326 300 280 – 6.7to Korea Rep of kt 123 137 142 3 6– to Korea, Rep. of kt 123 137 142 3.6

l k 948 1015 1 070 5 4– total kt 948 1015 1 070 5.4– value A$m 4 467 4 840 5 080 5.0 value $Price– saleyard Ac/kg 329 296 280 – 5 4Price– saleyard Ac/kg 329 296 280 – 5.4US import USc/kg 433 438 450 2 7– US import USc/kg 433 438 450 2.7

– Japan import USc/kg 600 590 570 – 3.4 Japan import / ga At 30 June. f ABARES forecast. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry

a At 30 June. f ABARES forecast. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry




74

Beef and veal


Live animal exports

Live feeder and slaughter cattle

Australian exports of cattle for feeder and slaughter purposes are expected to decline by 17 per cent in 2012–13 to 480 000 head, which largely reflects expected falls in cattle exports to Indonesia, Egypt and the Middle East.

Exports to Indonesia in 2012–13 are estimated at 265 000 head, a decline of 110 000 head (29 per cent) from exports in 2011–12. This expected decline reflects the Indonesian Government’s decision to lower its cattle import quota to pursue beef self-sufficiency. Indonesia plans to be 90 per cent self-sufficient in beef production by 2014. The Indonesian quota was set at 520 000 head in 2011 and was reduced to 283 000 head in 2012. A further reduction to 267 000 head for 2013 has been announced. In 2012–13 55 per cent of feeder and slaughter cattle exports from Australia are expected to go to Indonesia, compared with 83 per cent in 2008–09.

Exports to other parts of South-East Asia are expected to increase by 30 000 head in 2012–13 to 80 000 head, which reflects an increase in shipments to Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. However, this expected increase is from a particularly low base, with current exports to the Philippines and Malaysia at around one-tenth and one-third, respectively, of their peaks recorded more than a decade ago.

Exports of cattle to North Africa and the Middle East are expected to fall by around 28 per cent in 2012–13 to 70 000 head, as a result of increasing competition in Israel and exporters stopping shipments to Egypt until issues associated with hormonal growth promotants are resolved. Cattle sent to Egypt in July 2012 were not slaughtered until October 2012 following Egyptian concerns about the cattle having been treated with hormonal growth promotants.

In Israel, Australia’s largest market for cattle in the Middle East, imports have been increasingly sourced from Lithuania at a lower price. The average value per head of cattle sourced from Lithuania was around 40 per cent less than Australian cattle between 2006 and 2011. The reason for this differential is not known and may be due to a range of factors.

Live cattle exports, for feeder and slaughter purposes

OtherNorth Africa and Middle EastOther South-East AsiaIndonesia

f ABARES forecast.

’000head

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

continued...

75

Beef and veal


Live animal exports continued

In all other markets, exports of cattle are expected to increase by 14 per cent in 2012–13 to 65 000 head. Turkey is the largest of these markets and in 2012–13 exports to Turkey are expected to increase by 8000 head to around 45 000 head.

The value of live cattle exports for feeder and slaughter purposes is expected to decline by 20 per cent in 2012–13 to $329 million. This expected fall reflects the combined effects of the expected decline in the number of cattle exported and lower export prices. Export prices have fallen as a result of an increase in the supply of cattle available for export.

Live cattle exports for feeder and slaughter purposes are forecast to decline by a further 2 per cent in 2013–14 to 470 000 head. This reflects further tightening of import restrictions in Indonesia. However, exports to other markets in North Africa, the Middle East and South-East Asia are forecast to increase.

The value of live cattle exports is forecast to decline by 7 per cent in 2013–14 to $306 million, reflecting the forecast fall in the volume of cattle exports and expected falls in export prices. The supply of cattle available for export is expected to remain high, keeping downward pressure on export prices.

These forecasts assume that all live cattle supply chains approved under the Exporter Supply Chain Assurance System (ESCAS) remain compliant.

Live breeder and dairy cattle

Live breeder and dairy cattle exports are expected to increase by 5 per cent in 2012–13 to 110 000 head. The largest export markets for Australian breeder and dairy cattle in 2012–13 are China and the Russian Federation. Exports to China are expected to rise by almost 2 per cent to 60 000 head. In contrast, exports to the Russian Federation are expected to fall by 19 per cent to around 30 000 head. Dairy and breeder cattle exports to other markets, which include Pakistan, Indonesia and Sri Lanka, are expected to more than double in 2012–13 to 20 000 head.

With further growth in demand from China and other Asian markets expected, breeder and dairy cattle exports are forecast to reach 115 000 head in 2013–14. The value of exports is forecast to rise by 6 per cent to $259 million, up from an estimated $245 million in 2012–13.

Live sheep

The Middle East is expected to account for 92 per cent of Australia’s live sheep exports in 2012–13. Turkey is expected to account for 7 per cent of exports and South-East Asia for the remaining 1 per cent. Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan are expected to be our biggest markets in the Middle East in 2012–13, together accounting for 82 per cent of total Australian live sheep exports.

Sheep exports are expected to decline by 27 per cent in 2012–13 to around 1.88 million head. This expected fall reflects the combined effects of trade disruptions in some markets as a result of ESCAS breaches and increasing competition in some Middle Eastern markets and Turkey.

continued...

76

Beef and veal



Live sheep exports to Kuwait are expected to fall by 25 per cent in 2012–13 to 680 000 head, largely the result of reduced shipments following breaches of ESCAS in August 2012. From August 2012 the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry imposed additional requirements on Kuwaiti live sheep supply chains. A second investigation into Kuwaiti supply chains is being conducted following another allegation of non-compliance with ESCAS in January 2013.

In 2011–12 Bahrain was the third-largest market for sheep, after Kuwait and Qatar. In August 2012 the Australian live export industry voluntarily suspended exports of live sheep to Bahrain after difficulties in unloading a shipment. Exports to Bahrain are not expected to resume until a new memorandum of understanding has been negotiated.

Sheep exports to Qatar are expected to increase by 19 per cent in 2012–13 to 535 000 head. However, this increase is more than offset by estimated declines in exports to Jordan and Turkey. The expected falls in Jordan and Turkey largely reflect increasing export competition from Romania and Bulgaria. Romanian live sheep exports to Jordan have increased tenfold since 2009, reaching 285 000 head in 2011; Bulgarian exports to Turkey increased to 825 000 head in 2011 from zero in 2009.

The value of sheep exports is expected to fall by 43 per cent in 2012–13 to $197 million, reflecting the expected fall in the volume of exports and a fall in prices.

In 2013–14 the volume of sheep exports is forecast to remain low at 1.95 million head, with exports to the Middle East forecast to account for around 90 per cent of total exports. This forecast assumes all live sheep supply chains remain ESCAS compliant and those supply chains under investigation remain operational.

The value of sheep exports is forecast to increase to $224 million in 2013–14, largely the result of higher prices.

Live sheep exports

OtherQatarBahrainJordanKuwaitSaudi Arabia

f ABARES forecast.

million

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

1

2

3

4

5

6

continued...

77

Beef and veal



Australian live cattle and sheep exportsAustralian live cattle and sheep exportsAustralianlivecattleandsheepexports

Live feeder/slaughter cattle Live breeder cattle Live sheep aLive feeder/slaughter cattle Live breeder cattle Live sheep a2008March 183 0 15 2 993 2008March 183.0 15.2 993.2June 176 8 14 9 887 1June 176.8 14.9 887.1S b 226 8 6 9 1 099 4September 226.8 6.9 1 099.4pDecember 220.9 24.0 1 235.3December 220.9 24.0 1 235.3

2009M h2009March 168.9 6.7 854.0June 228.1 8.8 878.4June 228.1 8.8 878.4September 244 8 22 4 803 4September 244.8 22.4 803.4D b 249 4 25 1 1 031 7December 249.4 25.1 1 031.7

2010March 195 1 23 0 709 22010March 195.1 23.0 709.2June 181.4 16.4 515.3September 213.4 9.7 865.0September 213.4 9.7 865.0December 206 3 29 6 879 1December 206.3 29.6 879.1

2011March 136 2 13 3 550 02011March 136.2 13.3 550.0J 172 3 24 2 622 4June 172.3 24.2 622.4September 129.8 21.7 632.9SeptemberDecember 164.6 32.7 652.6December 164.6 32.7 652.6

20122012March 96.8 21.2 556.3March 96.8 21.2 556.3June 187 4 29 1 720 3June 187.4 29.1 720.3S t b 140 4 28 8 443 6September 140.4 28.8 443.6December 80.8 35.4 500.4December 80.8 35.4 500.4

20132013March 111.0 21.5 506.3Marcha Includes animals for breeding. Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes animals for breeding. Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes animals for breeding. Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes animals for breeding. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

continued...

78

Beef and veal



Australian live cattle and sheep exports, by destinations

Australian live cattle and sheep exports by destinationsAustralianlivecattleandsheepexports,bydestinationsunit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12unit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12

Live cattleLive cattleFeeder/slaughterAsiaFeeder/slaughter

Indonesia ’000 546 9 699 9 699 6 456 0 375 5Asia– Indonesia ’000 546.9 699.9 699.6 456.0 375.5J ’– Japan ’000 20.2 17.2 15.5 12.4 14.3p

– Malaysia ’000 24.2 19.5 4.6 19.7 19.3 Malaysia 000 24.2 19.5 4.6 19.7 19.3– Philippines ’000 15.5 10.3 14.4 15.6 23.8– Philippines 000 15.5 10.3 14.4 15.6 23.8Middle EastIsrael ’000 59 0 27 7 36 4 50 4 60 5

Middle East– Israel ’000 59.0 27.7 36.4 50.4 60.5J d ’000 0 9 10 0 27 5 9 3 0 3– Jordan ’000 0.9 10.0 27.5 9.3 0.3

– Saudi Arabia ’000 10.3 23.0 7.7 19.5 0.0 Saudi ArabiaOther– Turkey ’000 0 0 0 0 0 2 100 9 37 4Other– Turkey 000 0.0 0.0 0.2 100.9 37.4Egypt ’000 0 0 0 0 33 4 23 1 32 1– Egypt ’000 0.0 0.0 33.4 23.1 32.1

T t l l ht ttl ’000 708 1 844 7 870 6 728 2 578 6Total slaughter cattle ’000 708.1 844.7 870.6 728.2 578.6

Breeding cattle– China ’000 6 7 16 0 50 5 48 9 58 9Breeding cattle– China ’000 6.7 16.0 50.5 48.9 58.9Indonesia ’000 0 0 1 6 18 5 1 3 0 7– Indonesia ’000 0.0 1.6 18.5 1.3 0.7R i F d i ’000 12 8 13 8 9 4 10 5 36 9– Russian Federation ’000 12.8 13.8 9.4 10.5 36.9

Total breeding cattle ’000 61.1 46.4 86.9 76.8 104.7Total breeding cattle 000 61.1 46.4 86.9 76.8 104.7

Total live cattle ’000 769 2 891 1 957 5 805 0 683 3Total live cattle ’000 769.2 891.1 957.5 805.0 683.3

Value live cattle A$m 540.7 646.0 701.2 659.6 650.8Value live cattle A$m 540.7 646.0 701.2 659.6 650.8

Live sheepA iLive sheep aAsia– Singapore ’000 7.2 7.9 8.7 7.0 6.4 Singapore 000 7.2 7.9 8.7 7.0 6.4Europe– Turkey ’000 0 0 0 0 0 0 395 0 292 6Europe– Turkey 000 0.0 0.0 0.0 395.0 292.6Middle EastB h i ’000 611 1 776 3 580 0 439 7 386 9

Middle East– Bahrain ’000 611.1 776.3 580.0 439.7 386.9– Israel ’000 60.8 11.0 35.4 55.0 69.2 Israel– Jordan ’000 288.5 314.4 446.9 212.6 348.5 Jordan 000 288.5 314.4 446.9 212.6 348.5– Kuwait ’000 972 0 923 9 953 6 1 154 0 901 5– Kuwait 000 972.0 923.9 953.6 1 154.0 901.5Oman ’000 740 4 562 2 135 0 50 3 32 0– Oman ’000 740.4 562.2 135.0 50.3 32.0Q t ’000 228 9 331 5 389 8 315 9 449 9– Qatar ’000 228.9 331.5 389.8 315.9 449.9

– Saudi Arabia ’000 948.1 943.0 319.5 153.6 0.0– United Arab Emirates ’000 184.2 146.9 101.2 66.2 44.1 United Arab Emirates 000 184.2 146.9 101.2 66.2 44.1

Total live sheep ’000 4 070 0 4 067 1 3 059 7 2 916 4 2 562 2Total live sheep ’000 4 070.0 4 067.1 3 059.7 2 916.4 2 562.2

Value live sheep A$m 287.2 340.1 297.8 348.1 345.0Value live sheep A$m 287.2 340.1 297.8 348.1 345.0

a Includes animals for breeding. Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes animals for breeding. Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes animals for breeding. Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes animals for breeding. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

continued...

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Outlook for live cattle and sheep exports

Outlook for live cattle and sheep exportsOutlookforlivecattleandsheepexports%

unit 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f%

changeunit 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f change

lLive cattleVolume live cattleVolume live cattle– Feeder/slaughter ’000 579 480 470 – 2 1– Feeder/slaughter ’000 579 480 470 – 2.1B d ’000 105 110 115 4 5– Breeder ’000 105 110 115 4.5l l lValue live cattle

– Feeder/slaughter A$m 412 329 306 – 7.0 Feeder/slaughter A$m 412 329 306 7.0– Breeder A$m 239 245 259 5 7– Breeder A$m 239 245 259 5.7Li hLive sheep aVolume live sheep ’000 2 562 1 880 1 950 3.7

pVolume live sheep 000 2 562 1 880 1 950 3.7Value live sheep A$m 345 197 224 13 7Value live sheep A$m 345 197 224 13.7

Total export value A$m 996 771 789 2.3Total export value $ 996 89 3

a Includes animals for breeding. Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes animals for breeding. Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes animals for breeding. Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes animals for breeding. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Sheep meatKelly Chow

The Australian weighted average saleyard price for lamb is forecast to rise by around 5 per cent in 2013–14 to average 400 cents a kilogram, after falling by an estimated 20 per cent in 2012–13 to average 382 cents a kilogram. The forecast rise in saleyard prices reflects the combined effect of lower supplies and growing demand from main export markets. At this forecast level, the price will be around 13 per cent below the average over the 10 years to 2011–12 (462 cents a kilogram in 2012–13 dollars).

Australian lamb saleyard price and slaughter

millionhead

Lamb slaughter

f ABARES forecast.

2012–13Ac/kg

150

300

450

600

750

Lamb saleyard price (right axis)

5

10

15

20

25

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

The weighted average saleyard price for sheep is forecast to increase by 14 per cent in 2013–14 to average around 205 cents a kilogram, reflecting the effects of a fall in the number of adult sheep available for slaughter and growing demand from the Middle East and emerging markets in Asia. This forecast follows a sharp fall in sheep saleyard prices in 2012–13, declining by an estimated 45 per cent to average 180 cents a kilogram. At this forecast level, the price will be around 21 per cent below the average over the 10 years to 2011–12 (258 cents a kilogram in 2012–13 dollars).

81

Sheep meat


Australian sheep saleyard price and slaughter

millionhead

Sheep slaughter

f ABARES forecast.

2012–13Ac/kg

100

200

300

400

500

Sheep saleyard price (right axis)

4

8

12

16

20

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

Australian sheep flock to fallThe Australian sheep flock is estimated to have declined by 1 per cent in 2012–13 to around 74 million head. This largely reflects a significant increase in turn-off of sheep and lambs for slaughter, while ongoing dry conditions and low prices discouraged restocking activity. The effect of these factors is expected to result in lower opening adult sheep numbers and a smaller ewe base at the start of 2013–14. As a result, a further contraction in the Australian sheep flock is forecast in 2013–14, with numbers falling by less than 1 per cent to around 73.6 million head.

Australian sheep flock

millionhead

Sheep �ock

f ABARES forecast.

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

20

40

60

80

100

120

82

Sheep meat


Lamb slaughter and production to fallAustralian lamb slaughter is forecast to fall by 8 per cent to around 20 million head in 2013–14, following an estimated record high of 21 million head in 2012–13, 12 per cent higher than in 2011–12. The forecast fall in 2013–14 reflects lower opening lamb numbers. Also, recent survey results released by Meat & Livestock Australia in February indicate a decline in scanning and lamb marking rates that are expected to result in a smaller supply of spring lambs in 2013.

Lamb production is forecast to fall by 7 per cent in 2013–14 to around 431 000 tonnes, mainly reflecting the forecast fall in lamb slaughter but partially offset by an expected improvement in average carcass weights. This forecast follows an estimated 11 per cent increase in lamb production in 2012–13 to around 464 000 tonnes, reflecting higher lamb slaughter more than offsetting the effect of a decline in average lamb carcass weights.

Dry seasonal conditions have resulted in lower carcass weights in all sheep producing states across Australia in 2012–13. In the nine months to March 2013, lamb carcass weights averaged 21.7 kilograms, 2 per cent lower than the corresponding period in 2011–12. The largest fall occurred in Tasmania (by 7 per cent to 20.4 kilograms) while other states recorded, on average, a 1 per cent decline in lamb carcass weights.

Australian average lamb carcass weight, by state, 9 months to March

kg

2011–12

2012–13

5

10

15

20

25

Tasmania

Western Australia

South Australia

Queensland

Victoria

New South Wales

Sheep slaughter and production to fallDry conditions persisting through the 2012–13 summer and a lack of autumn rainfall limited pasture growth, which led to a sharp increase in sheep turn-off. In the March quarter 2013 sheep slaughter rose by 72 per cent to around 2.5 million head compared with the corresponding three months in 2012. Total sheep slaughter rose in most states in the March quarter 2013, increasing by 122 per cent year-on-year in New South Wales (628 000 head), 113 per cent in Tasmania (103 000 head), 112 per cent in Western Australia (416 000 head), 48 per cent in Victoria (848 000 head), 59 per cent in South Australia (371 000 head) and 2 per cent in Queensland (111 000 head).

83

Sheep meat


Adult sheep slaughter is forecast to be around 6.3 million head in 2013–14, a 20 per cent fall from an estimated 7.9 million head in 2012–13. With average sheep carcass weight expected to remain relatively unchanged, mutton production is forecast to fall by 18 per cent in 2013–14 to around 146 000 tonnes, down from an estimated 179 000 tonnes in 2012–13.

Australian sheep slaughter, monthly, July to March

’000head

2011–12

2012–13

200

400

600

800

1000

March

February

January

December

November

October

September

August

July

Lower lamb exportsReflecting the forecast fall in lamb supplies, Australian lamb exports are forecast to decline by around 12 per cent in 2013–14 to 177 000 tonnes (shipped weight). This follows an estimated 16 per cent increase in lamb exports in 2012–13. While the United States is expected to remain Australia’s largest market, accounting for around 19 per cent of total lamb exports, markets in the Middle East and China are expected to account for an increasing share of Australian lamb exports. Growth to these markets (and other smaller markets) has increased substantially. In the first 11 months of 2012–13 lamb exports were 40 per cent higher to the Middle East and 39 per cent higher to China compared with the same period a year earlier, rising to around 54 000 tonnes and 31 000 tonnes, respectively.

Australian lamb exports to the United States are forecast to fall by 11 per cent in 2013–14 to around 34 000 tonnes (shipped weight), following an estimated 9 per cent increase in 2012–13. This forecast mainly reflects lower lamb supplies to export.

The value of Australian lamb exports is forecast to decline by around 8 per cent to $977 million in 2013–14, reflecting the forecast fall in lamb export volumes, partially offset by forecast higher unit export prices for lamb.

84

Sheep meat


Exports from New Zealand to fall in 2013–14Australia’s major competitor for lamb exports is New Zealand. In the first 10 months of 2012–13 New Zealand’s sheep meat exports were around 327 000 tonnes (shipped weight), 33 per cent higher than the same period in 2011–12. Most of the increase in exports was destined for markets in China, the United Kingdom and the Middle East. Year-on-year lamb exports from New Zealand to China more than doubled (99 000 tonnes), and increased by 34 per cent to the United Kingdom (64 000 tonnes) and by around 21 per cent to the Middle East (28 000 tonnes). The increase in total lamb exports was underpinned by increased production as drought conditions in the North Island of New Zealand forced producers to increase turn-off.

In 2013–14 lamb exports are expected to be constrained by lower supplies in the North Island of New Zealand as the industry recovers from recent drought. This, combined with forecast lower Australian supplies, is expected to provide support to forecast higher Australian unit export returns.

New Zealand sheep meat exports, by destination, 10 months to April

kt

2011–12

2012–13

otherUnitedStates

Middle EastChinaEuropeanUnion

20

40

60

80

100

120

Australian mutton exports to fallWith forecast lower sheep slaughter and mutton production, Australian mutton exports are forecast to decline by 24 per cent in 2013–14 to around 109 000 tonnes (shipped weight), following an estimated 62 per cent increase in 2012–13. In 2013–14 mutton demand is expected to continue rising in established markets in the Middle East as well as in emerging markets in South-East Asia and China. The Middle East is expected to remain the key market for Australian mutton exports. However, with forecast lower supplies for export, some substitution toward lamb for export to that region is possible.

Australian mutton exports to the Middle East in the 11 months to May 2013 increased by 19 per cent year-on-year to around 47 000 tonnes (shipped weight). This increase in exports was driven by an increase in supplies, coupled with lower sheep saleyard prices. Over this period 78 per cent of mutton exports were destined for four markets, including Saudi Arabia (31 per cent), Dubai (24 per cent), Kuwait (14 per cent) and Oman (9 per cent).

85

Sheep meat


Reflecting rising incomes and shifting consumer food choices, Australian shipments of mutton to Asia, particularly to China and South-East Asia, have grown significantly over the past 10 years and are expected to continue rising in 2013–14. In the 11 months to May 2013 Australian exports of mutton to Asia more than doubled to around 59 000 tonnes year-on-year. The largest increase in mutton exports were to China (444 per cent), Malaysia (72 per cent), Indonesia (55 per cent) and Singapore (26 per cent). Together these four markets accounted for more than 80 per cent of total mutton exports to Asia.

Australian mutton exports, by destination, 11 months to May

kt

2011–12

2012–13

other

United Kingdom

Singapore

Malaysia

UnitedStates

China

Middle East

10

20

30

40

50

Sheep meat outlook

Sh t tl kSheepmeatoutlook%

pf f

% hunit 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f change

Slaughterings Sheep ’000 5 175 7 897 6 319 – 20 0Slaughterings Sheep ’000 5 175 7 897 6 319 – 20.0L b ’000 18 879 21 234 19 574 7 8Lamb ’000 18 879 21 234 19 574 – 7.8Production aMutton kt 120 179 146 – 18.4Production aMutton kt 120 179 146 18.4Lamb kt 419 464 431 – 7.1Lamb kt 419 464 431 – 7.1Exports (shipped weight)M tt k 89 144 109 24 3Exports (shipped weight)Mutton kt 89 144 109 – 24.3Lamb kt 174 202 177 – 12.4Lamb– to United States kt 35 38 34 – 10.5 to United States kt 35 38 34 10.5

Total sheep meat kt 263 346 286 17 3Total sheep meat kt 263 346 286 – 17.3l $– value $m 1 422 1 542 1 380 – 10.5

Live sheep b ’000 2 562 1 880 1 950 3.7Live sheep b 000 2 562 1 880 1 950 3.7– value $m 345 197 224 13 7– value $m 345 197 224 13.7Saleyard pricesM tt A /k 330 180 205 13 9Saleyard pricesMutton Ac/kg 330 180 205 13.9Lamb Ac/kg 480 382 400 4.7Lamb Ac/kg 480 382 400 4.7a Carcass weight. b Includes animals for breeding. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry

a Carcass weight. b Includes animals for breeding. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry





WoolBrian Moir

The Australian Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) price for wool is forecast to strengthen by 5 per cent to average 1080 cents a kilogram clean in 2013–14 from 1035 cents a kilogram in 2012–13. This reflects the effects on wool demand of assumed economic recovery in the United States and continued robust economic growth in China, coupled with an expected small contraction in global supplies of wool. However, continuing weak economic growth in Europe and Japan is expected to constrain any significant improvement in the wool market in the coming year. At 1080 cents a kilogram the EMI would remain 10 per cent below the 2011–12 average.

Australian wool auction prices, by micron

Ac/kgclean

19µ

21µ23µ

26µEMI

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

7 Jun2013

15 Feb2013

12 Oct2012

8 Jun2012

10 Feb2012

7 Oct2011

27 May2011

4 Feb2011

1 Oct2010

Source: AWEX

87

Wool


The EMI price fell from 1244 cents a kilogram clean in mid-February 2012 to 927 cents a kilogram in the first week of September 2012. A subsequent recovery lasted until it reached 1138 cents a kilogram at the end of January 2013, but the market weakened between February and May 2013. The average for the 2012–13 season to 6 June was 1033 cents a kilogram, 14 per cent below the average for the 2011–12 season.

Margin for fine wool narrowsThe premiums paid for finer wools declined through much of the 2012–13 season. In early November the margin between 17 micron and 23 micron wool was 373 cents a kilogram clean (36 per cent); by 7 June 2013 this margin had contracted to 157 cents (12 per cent). This reflects an increased supply of finer wool brought about by dry conditions, coupled with ongoing weak demand in Europe relative to other markets. Test data from the Australian Wool Testing Authority (AWTA) indicate that for the 10 months to April 2013, 56.1 per cent of wool tested was below 21.5 microns, compared with 52.7 per cent in the same period of the previous season.

Looking to the future, any recovery of price premiums for finer wools will depend on the supply of finer wools against the backdrop of an expected modest recovery of world demand for luxury wool products.

Australian wool micron profile, 10 months to April

%

2011–122012–13

Micron range

5

10

15

20

30.6+

28.6–30.5

26.6–28.5

24.6–26.5

23.6–24.5

22.6–23.5

21.6–22.5

20.6–21.5

19.6–20.5

18.6–19.5

17.6–18.5

0 to 17.5

Source: AWTA

Consumer demand to strengthen slightlyGlobal economic growth is assumed to recover only partially to 3.2 per cent in 2013, below its long-term potential of around 4 per cent. An assumed more significant recovery in 2014 is expected to provide increased support to the wool market.

Demand for wool appears to be strengthening in the United States in line with modest economic recovery and increased consumer spending. Domestic consumption of wool products has been stable for three years, while the most recent data on raw wool content of apparel imports show some increase in the first few months of 2013.

88

Wool


The European economies continue to perform poorly. Imports of wool yarn and fabrics to the European Union from China in 2012 were 18 per cent lower than the previous year, with trade in all clothing and textile items following a similar trend. Economic growth in Europe in 2013 and 2014 is expected to remain weak, and prospects for any marked recovery in demand for wool in 2013–14 are limited.

Economic growth in China, while high by international standards, slowed in 2012, with a consequent weakening in demand growth for wool. Textile manufacturing in China in the first three months of 2013 was only 4.1 per cent above the same period the previous year. Retail sales of all consumer goods in the three months to March 2013 continued to grow, but at a slower rate than in the same period in 2012. Economic growth in China is assumed to continue in 2013 and 2014 at a pace similar to 2012, supporting modest increases in China’s domestic demand for wool products.

Wool becoming more competitive with other fibresThe degree to which cotton and polyester can be substituted in the production of wool blended products is one factor influencing the demand for wool. While wool’s competitiveness against cotton and polyester has been improving since late 2012, it is weaker than it was in a number of years before 2011. In December 2012 the wool-to-cotton price ratio was at its highest peak for at least five years. Cotton prices subsequently strengthened while wool prices weakened a little so that in the period from December 2012 to May 2013 the price of wool, relative to the price of cotton, declined by 22 per cent.

Polyester prices firmed slightly between July 2012 and May 2013; consequently the price of wool relative to polyester declined by 13 per cent between December 2012 and May 2013 and is now well below the high of June 2011. Both cotton and polyester prices are expected to firm in 2013–14, thereby strengthening the competitiveness of wool.

Price ratios, wool to competing fibres

ratio

21μm wool to Cotlook ‘A’21μm wool to polyester

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

May2013

Jul2012

Sep2011

Oct2010

Dec2009

Feb2009

89

Wool


Shorn wool production declining with dry conditionsDry conditions in many parts of Australia have affected wool production. As a result of increased turn-off, the sheep flock is forecast to decline by 2 per cent in 2013–14 to 73.6 million head, with a consequent reduction in the number of sheep shorn. The average cut per head is forecast to decline by 1.5 per cent in 2013–14.

The combined effect of the reduced number of sheep being shorn and the lower cut per head is expected to reduce shorn wool production from 357 000 tonnes in 2012–13 to 349 000 tonnes in 2013–14.

World wool production contractingAustralia dominates global production of wool, particularly for the finer apparel types. Wool production in the major producing countries of Australia, Argentina, New Zealand, South Africa and Uruguay is expected to contract by around 1.5 per cent in 2013–14, after expanding by 3 per cent in 2012–13. Production in Australia, South Africa and Uruguay—countries that produce mainly apparel wool—is forecast to contract by about 1 per cent in 2013–14.

New Zealand is the world’s second largest wool producer, but its wool is generally coarser than Australia’s. Production is expected to contract by more than 2 per cent in 2013–14, as stronger demand for sheep meat has driven up slaughtering.

South African production is likely to increase by 1000 tonnes (3 per cent), as recovery from an outbreak of Rift Valley fever continues. South Africa’s production profile of fine and medium wools is closer to Australia’s than production in other countries, and it competes closely with Australia for markets, such as China.

Production in Uruguay increased by 5 per cent in 2012–13 and is expected to increase by the same proportion in 2013–14.

In Argentina, sheep numbers rose leading to a small increase in wool production in 2012–13. This increase is likely to be reversed in 2013–14, because of strong competition for agricultural resources from more profitable food crops as a result of higher world prices.

Wool exports to decline but remain strongAustralian exports of wool for the first 10 months of 2012–13 were around 8 per cent higher than for the same period the previous year, and are expected to reach 440 000 tonnes for 2012–13 as wool is brought out of stocks. Exports of 405 000 tonnes of wool in the previous year amounted to 24 000 tonnes less than production, indicating an accumulation of stocks during 2011–12.

With lower stocks on hand and reduced production in 2013–14, exports are forecast to contract to around 420 000 tonnes for the year as a whole. Despite higher forecast export prices, the value of exports is expected to decline by 2 per cent to $2.8 billion in 2013–14.

In the 10 months to April 2013 Australian exports of wool to China—the major destination of Australian wool exports—were 11 per cent higher than in the corresponding period the previous year. However, this was associated with lower unit export values because Chinese wool processors have faced subdued demand in their export markets, especially in Europe.

90

Wool


Australian exports of raw wool to the European Union have fallen markedly over several decades, from 304 000 tonnes in 1990–91 to 34 000 tonnes in 2011–12, as processing has shifted to China. However, in the first 10 months of 2012–13 increased exports to the Czech Republic resulted in Australian exports of wool to the European Union being 2 per cent (490 tonnes) above the same period the previous season. Since the late 1980s the Czech Republic has largely maintained its imports of wool from Australia, most of which is processed and re-exported to Italy and other countries in Europe.

Production and exports of Australian wool

kt greasy

ProductionExports

2013–14f

2012–13f

2011–12

2010–11

2009–10

100

200

300

400

500

f ABARES forecast.

Wool outlookWool outlookWooloutlook

%unit 2011 12 2012 13 f 2013 14 f

% changeunit 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f change

Sheep numbers a million 75 74 74 0.0Sheep numbers a million 75 74 74 0.0Sheep shorn million 83 84 83 – 1.2Sheep shorn million 83 84 83 – 1.2Wool production (greasy)shorn kt 362 357 349 2 2

Wool production (greasy)– shorn kt 362 357 349 – 2.2

k– other b kt 49 72 66 – 8.3 other b– total kt 411 429 415 – 3.3 total kt 411 429 415 3.3Wool exports– volume (gr equiv ) kt 405 440 420 – 4 5Wool exports– volume (gr. equiv.) kt 405 440 420 – 4.5to China kt 306 330 315 4 5– to China kt 306 330 315 – 4.5

$ 3 123 2 883 2 751 4 6– value c $m 3 123 2 883 2 751 – 4.6Market indicator (clean)– eastern Ac/kg 1 203 1 035 1 080 4.3

( ) eastern Ac/kg 1 203 1 035 1 080 4.3– western Ac/kg 1 210 1 050 1 080 2 9– western Ac/kg 1 210 1 050 1 080 2.9Auction price (greasy) Ac/kg 792 661 702 6 2Auction price (greasy) Ac/kg 792 661 702 6.2

a At 30 June. b Includes wool on sheepskins, fellmongered and slipe wool. c Balance of payments basis. f ABARES forecast. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Wool Exchange






91ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 3 no. 2 • June quarter 2013

In 2013–14 world dairy product prices are forecast to rise, driven by continuing firm demand in the developing countries of Asia, the Middle East and North Africa and limited growth in supplies from key exporting countries.

World dairy product prices are forecast to rise by around 3 per cent in 2013–14. World prices for whole milk powder, skim milk powder, butter and cheese are forecast to average US$3900 a tonne, US$3790 a tonne, US$3750 a tonne and US$4260 a tonne, respectively, in 2013–14.

World prices for milk powders rose strongly in March–April 2013 reflecting the effect of dry seasonal conditions on milk production in New Zealand and limited growth in milk production in the European Union and United States. As a result, world prices for milk powders in 2012–13 are estimated to average around 10 per cent to 13 per cent higher than in 2011–12. World prices for butter and cheese are estimated to average slightly lower in 2012–13.

World dairy prices

2012–13US$/t

Skim milk powder

Cheese

f ABARES forecast.

Whole milk powder

Butter

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2013–14f

2011–12

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

DairyDavid Barrett

92

Dairy


Global supplies to increaseGlobal milk production is forecast to increase slightly in 2013–14, as a result of forecast lower feed grain prices. Milk production in most of the main producing and exporting countries fell in 2012–13, as farmers reduced output in response to relatively low farmgate prices, high feed costs and adverse seasonal conditions.

European UnionEU milk production is forecast to rise by 1 per cent in the 2013–14 marketing year (April to March) but remain well within the EU milk quota. Milk output is expected to increase in France, Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands in response to forecast lower feed costs and assuming average seasonal conditions. In 2012–13 EU milk production fell by around 1 per cent to 138 million tonnes, around 5 per cent below the EU milk quota.

The number of dairy cows in the European Union is forecast to decline by around 1 per cent in 2013–14 as farmers in some EU member states, such as Romania and Bulgaria, reduce their herds. Additional costs to comply with EU milk quality standards by the end of 2013 are likely to lead to some farm closures in these two countries.

EU cheese exports are expected to increase in 2013–14 supported by firm export demand, particularly from the Russian Federation, and relatively subdued EU domestic consumption. EU cheese exports are forecast to rise by 5 per cent to 800 000 tonnes in 2013–14. Forecast lower EU production of butter and skim milk powder is expected to lead to reduced quantities available for export in 2013–14.

EU milk production and farmgate price

Farmgate milk price (right axis)

Change in milkproduction, year-on-year

kt

–400

–200

200

0

400

600

800

euro/100kg

7

14

21

28

35

42

49

Feb2013

Aug2012

Feb2012

Aug2011

Feb2011

Aug2010

Feb2010

Aug2009

Feb2009

Aug2008

Feb2008

93

Dairy


United StatesWhile the US dairy herd is expected to contract through the remainder of 2013, US milk production is forecast to increase slightly in 2013 as a result of higher milk yields. Growth in US milk production is expected in the first half of 2014 as a result of forecast higher farmgate milk prices and lower feed grain costs.

With an expected strengthening in domestic demand as a result of an assumed improvement in US economic activity, the quantity of US dairy products available for export is expected to be constrained in the second half of 2013. However, a forecast increase in the production of dairy products, particularly cheese, is likely to lead to a rise in dairy product exports in the first half 2014.

US dairy

ratio

Milk-feed price ratio(right axis)

Change in dairy cownumbers, year-on-year

’000head

–200

–100

0

100

200

300

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Feb2013

Aug2012

Feb2012

Aug2011

Feb2011

Aug2010

Feb2010

Aug2009

Feb2009

Aug2008

Feb2008

New ZealandAssuming average seasonal conditions, milk production in New Zealand is forecast to increase by 1 to 2 per cent in 2013–14 following a slight fall in production in 2012–13 (June to May). Dry seasonal conditions on the North Island of New Zealand led to a sharp fall in milk production in the period February to May 2013, as farmers dried their cows off earlier than usual and reduced feed intake. Rainfall received in the main dairying regions of the North Island during April and May 2013 is expected to allow pastures to recover. However, the improved seasonal conditions will have a limited effect on milk production for the 2012–13 marketing year (June to May) as a whole.

In the five years to June 2012 the dairy herd on the South Island of New Zealand increased by 50 per cent and accounted for 40 per cent of the national dairy herd in 2012. The number of dairy cattle on the North Island increased by 10 per cent over the same period. A further slight increase in the dairy herd is expected in 2013–14 on the South Island as further beef farms are converted to dairying.

94

Dairy


New Zealand milk production, year-on-year change

kt–500–400–300–200–100

1000

200300400

Apr2013

Oct2012

Apr2012

Oct2011

Apr2011

Oct2010

ArgentinaMilk production in Argentina is forecast to decline slightly in 2013. While milk production fell by 7 per cent in the first five months of 2013, it is forecast to increase in the remainder of 2013 in response to forecast higher farmgate milk prices and lower feed grain costs. However, this forecast rise in production in the second half of 2013 is not expected to offset the decline in production in the first half of 2013.

Argentina, a relatively large global exporter of dairy products, is expected to reduce its exports of whole milk powder and cheese in 2013 in response to lower production.

Demand in developing countries to drive global tradeConsumption of dairy products in the European Union is expected to remain subdued through the remainder of 2013, reflecting continuing weak economic activity in most member states. However, a modest rise in economic growth in the European Union in 2014 is expected to lead to a slight increase in domestic demand for dairy products, particularly cheese and some fresh milk products. Consumption of cheese in the United States is forecast to increase in 2013–14, in response to assumed stronger economic activity as consumers increase their discretionary spending on take-away and restaurant meals.

Import demand for dairy products in 2013–14 is expected to be supported by firm economic growth in the developing countries of Asia, the Middle East and North Africa.

Continuing growth in demand for milk powders in the Asian region is expected to support world prices for skim milk powder and whole milk powder in 2013–14. China, the dominant importer of milk powders in Asia, is expected to continue to increase imports of whole milk powder and skim milk powder in 2013. This reflects further growth in domestic demand, particularly for infant formula milk powders, and continuing consumer concerns about the safety of domestically produced products.

95

Dairy


China’s tariff on infant formula milk powder was reduced from 20 per cent, on an ad valorem basis, to 5 per cent on 1 January 2013. This is equivalent to the tariff applying to imports of milk powders from New Zealand under the New Zealand–China Free Trade Agreement for 2013. New Zealand is the largest exporter of whole milk powder to China, accounting for around 90 per cent of trade.

New Zealand exports of milk powder to China

kt

Whole milk powderSkim milk powder

20

40

60

80

100

Mar2013

Jul2012

Nov2011

Mar2011

Jul2010

Nov2009

Mar2009

South-East Asia’s import demand for milk powders is forecast to remain firm in 2013, reflecting modest economic growth in most countries in the region. South-East Asia imports around 500 000 tonnes of skim milk powder annually, accounting for around one-third of global trade in skim milk powder. In 2011–12 Australia exported 77 000 tonnes of skim milk powder to South-East Asia. In recent years, Australian exporters have faced increased competition from other exporters such as the United States and the European Union in this market.

South-East Asia imports around 280 000 tonnes of whole milk powder annually, accounting for 15 per cent of world trade. Australia exported 34 000 tonnes of whole milk powder to South-East Asia in 2011–12.

With little growth in milk production forecast in the Middle East and North Africa, countries in these regions are expected to continue to meet growing domestic demand for dairy products through higher imports. Algeria is expected to remain a large regional importer of milk powders, with imports of whole milk powder forecast to increase by around 5 per cent to 185 000 tonnes in 2013.

Global trade in cheese is forecast to increase in 2013, reflecting firm import demand from the Russian Federation, Japan, the Republic of Korea and other smaller Asian markets, such as China and countries of South-East Asia. The Russian Federation’s cheese imports are forecast to increase slightly in 2013 to around 355 000 tonnes, following a 2 per cent rise in 2012. Japan’s imports of cheese in 2013 are expected to increase by 2 per cent to around 235 000 tonnes, following an 8 per cent rise the previous year. Cheese imports by China and South-East Asia have increased in recent years but the volumes are still small. For example, South-East Asia’s imports of cheese doubled to reach 70 000 tonnes between 2006 and 2011, while cheese imports by China trebled to reach 28 000 tonnes over the same period.

96

Dairy


The Australian dairy industryThe Australian farmgate price for milk is forecast to increase by 10.1 per cent in 2013–14 to average 43.5 cents a litre, reflecting the effect of higher world dairy product prices and an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar. The farmgate price for milk is estimated to have fallen by around 6 per cent to 39.5 cents a litre in 2012–13.

Overall, Australian milk production is estimated to fall by 2.5 per cent in 2012–13. Dry seasonal conditions during the second half of 2012–13 across much of south-eastern Australia adversely affected milk production. Milk production in Victoria, which accounts for two-thirds of national production, is estimated to decline by 2 per cent in 2012–13. While production in the main irrigation region of northern Victoria (accounting for one-third of Victorian production) is estimated to increase by 5 per cent, production in eastern Victoria (accounting for 31 per cent of Victorian production) is estimated to fall by 8 per cent in 2012–13. In western Victoria (accounting for 35 per cent of Victorian production) production is estimated to decline by 3 per cent in 2012–13.

Production in dairying regions more reliant on the drinking milk market—Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia and central and northern New South Wales—is estimated to decline by around 2 per cent to 5 per cent in 2012–13.

Relatively high grain and fodder prices in the second half of 2012–13 also contributed to lower milk production in many of Australia’s dairying regions, particularly in southern Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. Expenditure on feed grains and fodder accounts for around 25 per cent to 30 per cent of total cash costs in the Australian dairy industry.

Assuming average seasonal conditions in Australia’s major dairying regions, milk production is forecast to increase by 2.3 per cent to 9.45 billion litres in 2013–14. Most of the increase in production is expected to occur in those dairying regions that experienced dry seasonal conditions in the second half of 2012–13. Furthermore, continuing availability of irrigation water in northern Victoria and southern New South Wales is expected to lead to a further increase in milk production in these regions in 2013–14. The increased availability of irrigation water over the past two years in these regions has enabled dairy farmers to adjust their management strategies to allow increases in their herds.

Victorian milk production, year-on-year change

%

2010–112011–122012–13f

–5

5

0

10

15

20

f ABARES forecast.

WesternNorthernEastern

97

Dairy


Australian exportsThe total value of Australian dairy exports is forecast to increase by 10 per cent in 2013–14 to $2.4 billion, primarily reflecting the effect of forecast lower average dairy product prices on world markets and an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar. The volume of cheese exports is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to 165 000 tonnes and account for around one-third of the value of Australian dairy exports.

Dairy outlook

Dairy outlookDairyoutlook%

unit 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f changeunit 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f changeAustraliaAustraliaCow numbers a ’000 1 700 1 690 1 695 0.3Cow numbers aMilk yields L/cow 5 577 5 467 5 575 2.0Milk yields L/cow 5 577 5 467 5 575 2.0Production

l ilkProductionTotal milk ML 9 480 9 240 9 450 2.3– market sales ML 2 389 2 435 2 475 1.6 market sales ML 2 389 2 435 2 475 1.6– manufacturing ML 7 092 6 805 6 975 2.5– manufacturing ML 7 092 6 805 6 975 2.5Butter b kt 120 118 120 1 7Butter b kt 120 118 120 1.7Cheese kt 340 336 346 3 0Cheese kt 340 336 346 3.0Wh l ilk d k 140 116 118 1Whole milk powder kt 140 116 118 1.7pSkim milk powder kt 230 225 230 2.2Skim milk powder kt 230 225 230 2.2Farmgate milk price Ac/L 42.1 39.5 43.5 10.1Farmgate milk price Ac/L 42.1 39.5 43.5 10.1Value of exports A$m 2 292 2 208 2 428 10 0Value of exports A$m 2 292 2 208 2 428 10.0

ld iWorld pricesButter US$/t 3 883 3 650 3 750 2.7

pButter US$/t 3 883 3 650 3 750 2.7Cheese US$/t 4 258 4 150 4 260 2.7Cheese US$/t 4 258 4 150 4 260 2.7Skim milk powder US$/t 3 233 3 670 3 790 3 3Skim milk powder US$/t 3 233 3 670 3 790 3.3Wh l ilk d US$/t 3 431 3 780 3 900 3 2Whole milk powder US$/t 3 431 3 780 3 900 3.2a At 30 June. b Includes the butter equivalent of butteroil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. f ABARES forecast. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Dairy Australia

a At 30 June. b Includes the butter equivalent of butteroil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. f ABARES forecast. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Dairy Australia





99Department of Agriculture, Fisheries & Forestry Document Title Goes Here

Running Main Header Milo Pro Medium 8ptRunning Sub Header Milo Pro Light 8pt

Statistical tables


Figures

1 Contribution to GDP 101

2 Markets for Australian merchandise exports 101

3 Sources of Australian merchandise imports 102

4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal) 103

5 Contribution to exports by sector, balance of payments basis 109

Tables

1 Indexes of prices received by farmers 106

2 Indexes of prices paid by farmers, and terms of trade 107

3 Farm costs and returns 108

4 Volume of production indexes 110

5 Industry gross value added 110

6 Employment 111

7 All banks lending to business 111

8 Rural indebtedness to financial institutions 112

9 Annual world indicator prices of selected commodities 112

10 Gross unit values of farm products 113

11 World production, consumption, stocks and trade for selected commodities 114

12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production 116

13 Gross value of farm and fisheries production 118

14 Crop and forestry areas and livestock numbers 120

15 Average farm yields 121

16 Volume of agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports 122

17 Value of agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports (fob) 124

18 Volume of forest products exports 126

19 Value of forest products exports (fob) 127

20 Volume of forest products imports 128

21 Value of forest products imports 129

22 Volume of fisheries products exports 130

23 Value of fisheries products exports (fob) 131

24 Volume of fisheries products imports 132

25 Value of fisheries products imports 133

26 Agricultural exports to Japan (fob) 134

27 Agricultural exports to the United States (fob) 135

28 Agricultural exports to China (fob) 136

29 Value of Australian forest products trade, by selected countries 137

30 Value of Australian fisheries products trade, by selected countries 138

31 Food exports by level of transformation 139

32 Food imports by level of transformation 140

33 Total food exports, by selected destination 141

34 Total food imports, by selected source country 141

GDP, exports

FIGURE 1 Contribution to GDP Australia, chain volume measures, reference year 2010–11

Services 74%

Manufacturing 7%

Mining 10%

Building and construction 7%

Agriculture, forestry and �shing 2%

Services 71%

Manufacturing 10%

Mining 10%

Building and construction 6%

Agriculture, forestry and �shing 3%

2011–12

$1451.6b

2001–02

$1073.6b

FIGURE 2 Markets for Australian merchandise exports in 2011–12 dollars

Japan 35% Japan 26%

China 8% China 24%

New Zealand 18% New Zealand 14%

Malaysia 2% Malaysia 5%

United States 5% United States 5%

Taiwan 2% Taiwan 3%

Indonesia 2% Indonesia 3%

Other 28% Other 20%

Japan 33% Japan 24%

Hong Kong 24% Hong Kong 47%

China 3% China 5%

United States 8% United States 4%

Singapore 3% Singapore 4%

Taiwan 7% Taiwan 1%

European Union 27 3% European Union 27 1%

Other 19% Other 14%

2011–122001–02

Total $159.9b $264.0b

$41.4b $36.3bAgriculture

$2.8b $1.2bFisheries

$2.7b $2.2bForestry

Other

European Union 27

India

New Zealand

United States

Republic of Korea

Japan

China

Other

European Union 27

India

New Zealand

United States

Republic of Korea

Japan

China

24%

8%

5%

3%

4%

8%

19%

29%

37%

12%

2%

6%

10%

8%

19%

6%

13%

6%

10%

8%

14%

19%

12%

18%

17%

11%

9%

10%

14%

16%

15%

8%

Other

United States

Middle East

European Union 27

Other Asia

ASEAN

Japan

China

Other

United States

Middle East

European Union 27

Other Asia

ASEAN

Japan

China


Import markets

FIGURE 3 Sources of Australian merchandise imports in 2011–12 dollars

New Zealand 20%

China 5%

Indonesia 8%

United States 10%

Malaysia 4%

Germany 4%

Finland 7%

Other 42%

New Zealand 15%

China 19%

Indonesia 8%

United States 7%

Malaysia 6%

Germany 4%

Finland 3%

Other 38%

United States 18%

Japan 13%

China 9%

Germany 6%

Malaysia 5%

Singapore 3%

New Zealand 4%

Other 42%

United States

Japan

China

Germany

Malaysia

Singapore

New Zealand

Other

11%

8%

18%

5%

4%

6%

3%

45%

China 4%

ASEAN 15%

other Asia 6%

European Union 27 30%

New Zealand 17%

United States 13%

Other 15%

China

ASEAN

other Asia

European Union 27

New Zealand

United States

Other

6%

21%

5%

23%

17%

11%

17%

2011–122001–02

Total $158.0b $239.7b

$7.3b $11.9bAgriculture

$5.0b $4.2b

$1.6b $1.6b

Forestry

FisheriesThailand 20%

New Zealand 15%

China 3%

Vietnam 4%

Malaysia 3%

United States 5%

Other 50%

Thailand 23%

New Zealand 13%

China 15%

Vietnam 11%

Malaysia 5%

United States 3%

Other 30%


Export markets

FIGURE 4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal)

Quantity wheat

kt

Value wheat

$m

Quantity barley

kt

Value barley

$m

Quantity sugar

kt

Value sugar

$m

Quantity wine

ML

Value wine

$m

2011–122001–02

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

China

Japan

United ArabEmirates

Saudi Arabia

Korea, Rep. of

Vietnam

China

Japan

United ArabEmirates

Saudi Arabia

Korea, Rep. of

Vietnam

Korea, Rep. of

Indonesia

Malaysia

Japan

New Zealand

United States

200 400 600 1000800

Korea, Rep. of

Indonesia

Malaysia

Japan

New Zealand

United States

50 100 150 200 250

United Kingdom

United States

Canada

China

Germany

New Zealand

United Kingdom

United States

Canada

China

Germany

New Zealand

200 400 600 1000800

Indonesia

Vietnam

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

Malaysia

China

Indonesia

Vietnam

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

Malaysia

China

100 200 300 400 500 600

500 1000 1500 2000 100 200 400300 500


Export markets


Quantity wool

kt

Value wool

$m

Quantity beef and veal

kt

Value beef and veal

$m

Quantity sheep meat

kt

Value sheep meat

$m

Quantity cheese

kt

Value cheese

$m

2011–122001–02

China

India

Italy

Czech Republic

Taiwan

Korea, Rep. of

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

China

India

Italy

Czech Republic

Taiwan

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

United States

Korea, Rep. of

RussianFederation

RussianFederation

Indonesia

Taiwan

100 200 300 500400

Japan

United States

Korea, Rep. of

Indonesia

Taiwan

500 1000 1500 2000

United States

China

United ArabEmirates

Saudi Arabia

Japan

EuropeanUnion 27

10 20 30 40 50 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Japan

Korea, Rep. of

Saudi Arabia

Singapore

Hong Kong

United States

Japan

Korea, Rep. of

Saudi Arabia

Singapore

Hong Kong

United States

20 40 60 80 120100 100 200 300 500400

United States

China

United ArabEmirates

EuropeanUnion 27

Japan

Saudi Arabia


Export markets


Quantity paper and paperboard

kt

Value paper and paperboard

$m

Quantity woodchips

kt

Value woodchips

$m

Quantity edible �sh

kt

Value edible �sh

$m

Quantity edible crustaceans and molluscs Value edible crustaceans and molluscs

$m

2011–122001–02

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

New Zealand

United States

China

South Africa

Philippines

New Zealand

United States

China

South Africa

Philippines

50 100 150 200 250 50 100 150 200 250

Japan

China

Taiwan

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Japan

China

Thailand

Hong Kong

New Zealand

Indonesia

Japan

China

Thailand

Hong Kong

New Zealand

Indonesia

5 10 15 20

Hong Kong

China

Japan

Singapore

Taiwan

Malaysia

Hong Kong

China

Japan

Singapore

Taiwan

Malaysia

100 200 300 400 500

Japan

China

Taiwan

12kt 2 4 6 108


Prices

TABLE 1 Indexes of prices received by farmers Australia

STATISTICS

1 Indexes of prices received by farmers Australia1IndexesofpricesreceivedbyfarmersAustralia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 s 2012–13 f 2013–14 f2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 s 2012–13 f 2013–14 f

Crops sectorCrops sector G iGrainsWinter crops

barley 145.3 108.3 135.8 131.7 170.8 145.3Winter crops

barley 145.3 108.3 135.8 131.7 170.8 145.3canola 142 2 114 2 141 1 133 1 144 9 139 1canola 142.2 114.2 141.1 133.1 144.9 139.1lupins 142 9 127 2 136 9 118 7 132 9 117 0lupins 142.9 127.2 136.9 118.7 132.9 117.0oats 158.3 116.9 143.2 147.7 177.3 167.0wheat 142.1 110.4 130.1 114.6 173.2 154.3wheat 142.1 110.4 130.1 114.6 173.2 154.3

Summer cropsgrain sorghum 121 3 115 9 125 8 111 6 143 3 127 6

Summer cropsgrain sorghum 121.3 115.9 125.8 111.6 143.3 127.6

T t l i 137 5 108 7 126 2 115 9 155 5 140 1Total grains a 137.5 108.7 126.2 115.9 155.5 140.1

Cotton 96.7 98.4 103.6 110.8 92.6 99.3Cotton 96.7 98.4 103.6 110.8 92.6 99.3Sugar 98 3 137 8 128 0 147 1 104 5 94 6Sugar 98.3 137.8 128.0 147.1 104.5 94.6H 219 0 181 5 151 1 128 4 109 2 92 8Hay 219.0 181.5 151.1 128.4 109.2 92.8Fruit 148.2 146.6 181.8 181.4 184.1 188.7Vegetables 152.9 150.4 167.3 161.4 161.8 165.9Vegetables 152.9 150.4 167.3 161.4 161.8 165.9Total crops sector 120.1 108.8 122.3 118.4 133.4 127.6Total crops sector 120.1 108.8 122.3 118.4 133.4 127.6

Li t k tLivestock sectorLivestock for slaughter

cattle 164.6 160.0 172.6 176.0 160.4 147.7ivestock for slaughter cattle 164.6 160.0 172.6 176.0 160.4 147.7

lambs b 204 3 218 7 255 4 229 1 188 4 197 0 lambs b 204.3 218.7 255.4 229.1 188.4 197.0sheep 216 8 343 3 438 0 356 4 200 8 228 3 sheep 216.8 343.3 438.0 356.4 200.8 228.3li h f t 213 4 248 4 304 6 343 7 267 5 293 2 live sheep for export 213.4 248.4 304.6 343.7 267.5 293.2p p

pigs 153.5 147.1 135.7 134.5 134.4 141.3 pigs 153.5 147.1 135.7 134.5 134.4 141.3poultry 120.0 114.1 109.8 107.6 112.2 114.2 poultry 120.0 114.1 109.8 107.6 112.2 114.2total 163 0 163 8 175 5 173 5 157 9 153 6 total 163.0 163.8 175.5 173.5 157.9 153.6

Livestock productsl 109 2 116 0 158 4 176 8 145 0 153 2

Livestock products wool 109.2 116.0 158.4 176.8 145.0 153.2 milk 142.3 125.2 144.8 140.9 132.4 145.8 milk eggs 108.5 105.5 104.2 104.1 105.0 106.0 eggs 108.5 105.5 104.2 104.1 105.0 106.0

total 127 6 120 0 144 6 148 5 133 8 143 8 total 127.6 120.0 144.6 148.5 133.8 143.8Store and breeding stock 161 9 168 3 194 0 196 0 169 3 164 5Store and breeding stock 161.9 168.3 194.0 196.0 169.3 164.5T l li k 147 6 145 7 162 8 163 2 147 6 148 5Total livestock sector 147.6 145.7 162.8 163.2 147.6 148.5

Total prices received 131 8 124 7 139 7 137 5 140 0 137 1Total prices received 131.8 124.7 139.7 137.5 140.0 137.1

a Total for the group includes commodities not separately listed. b Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18–22 kg.f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Notes: ABARE revised the method for calculating these indexes in October 1999. The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Indexes for most individual commodities are based on annual gross unit value of production. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Source: ABARES










Prices

TABLE 2 Indexes of prices paid by farmers, and terms of trade Australia

STATISTICS

2 Indexes of prices paid by farmers and terms of trade Australia2Indexesofpricespaidbyfarmers,andtermsoftradeAustralia2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f

F ’ f d 88 5 88 6 96 4 93 6 96 7 94 3Farmers’ terms of trade a 88.5 88.6 96.4 93.6 96.7 94.3

Materials and servicesMaterials and servicesSeed fodder and livestock

f dd d f d t ff 168 0 145 8 121 0 115 6 127 1 119 2Seed, fodder and livestock

fodder and feedstuffs 168.0 145.8 121.0 115.6 127.1 119.2seed, seedlings and plants 120.7 109.4 120.0 116.4 128.1 123.3seed, seedlings and plants 0 09 0 0 6 8 3 3store and breeding stock 161.9 168.3 194.0 196.0 169.3 164.5store and breeding stock 161.9 168.3 194.0 196.0 169.3 164.5total 161 0 147 0 137 8 134 3 136 8 129 9total 161.0 147.0 137.8 134.3 136.8 129.9

Chemicals 136 7 116 2 110 4 112 6 110 3 112 5Chemicals 136.7 116.2 110.4 112.6 110.3 112.5El i i 121 5 142 1 158 9 176 8 181 0 185 5Electricity 121.5 142.1 158.9 176.8 181.0 185.5yFertiliser 239.6 156.0 157.3 165.5 158.7 160.3Fertiliser 239.6 156.0 157.3 165.5 158.7 160.3Fuel and lubricants 211.0 191.7 211.3 228.2 211.0 213.1Fuel and lubricants 211.0 191.7 211.3 228.2 211.0 213.1Total 164 0 146 4 146 1 148 9 148 6 148 0Total 164.0 146.4 146.1 148.9 148.6 148.0

bLabour 142.6 147.3 151.9 155.3 159.1 163.1

Marketing 137 2 134 0 144 8 154 0 151 6 156 1Marketing 137.2 134.0 144.8 154.0 151.6 156.1

O h dOverheadsInsurance 155.6 167.0 173.7 185.8 190.3 195.0Insurance 155.6 167.0 173.7 185.8 190.3 195.0Interest paid 116.8 111.2 122.3 114.9 98.2 94.5Interest paid 116.8 111.2 122.3 114.9 98.2 94.5Rates and taxes 141 6 144 9 149 4 152 8 156 5 160 4Rates and taxes 141.6 144.9 149.4 152.8 156.5 160.4Other overheads 137 2 140 6 144 9 148 2 151 8 155 6Other overheads 137.2 140.6 144.9 148.2 151.8 155.6

lTotal 126.6 124.3 133.7 129.8 118.9 117.4

Capital items 141 2 144 8 149 3 153 1 157 1 161 3Capital items 141.2 144.8 149.3 153.1 157.1 161.3

l i idTotal prices paid 148.9 140.8 144.8 147.0 144.8 145.4p pExcluding capital items 149 9 140 4 144 4 146 4 143 6 143 8Excluding capital items 149.9 140.4 144.4 146.4 143.6 143.8E l di it l d h d 156 7 144 9 147 1 151 0 151 0 151 8Excluding capital and overheads 156.7 144.9 147.1 151.0 151.0 151.8E l di d f dd dExcluding seed, fodder and

store and breeding stock 146.4 139.4 146.2 149.6 146.5 148.6g ,

store and breeding stock 146.4 139.4 146.2 149.6 146.5 148.6

a Ratio of index of prices received by farmers and index of prices paid by farmers. f ABARES forecast. Notes: ABARE revised the method for calculating these indexes in October 1999. The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES (compiled from various market sources); Australian Bureau of Statistics








Costs and returns

TABLE 3 Farm costs and returns Australia

STATISTICS

3 Farm costs and returns Australia3FarmcostsandreturnsAustraliait 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 f 2013 14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f

CCosts Materials and services

chemicals $m 1 792 1 496 1 435 1 477 1 426 1 459Materials and services

chemicals $m 1 792 1 496 1 435 1 477 1 426 1 459fertiliser $m 3 381 2 145 2 217 2 350 2 225 2 248fertiliser $m 3 381 2 145 2 217 2 350 2 225 2 248fuel and lubricants $m 2 243 1 966 2 230 2 412 2 192 2 201fuel and lubricants $m 2 243 1 966 2 230 2 412 2 192 2 201

k i $marketing $m 3 733 3 814 3 841 4 010 3 677 3 969grepairs and maintenance $m 3 080 3 004 3 702 3 920 4 001 4 190repairs and maintenance $m 3 080 3 004 3 702 3 920 4 001 4 190seed and fodder $m 5 263 4 543 4 202 4 140 4 557 4 304seed and fodder $m 5 263 4 543 4 202 4 140 4 557 4 304other $m 3 829 3 968 4 289 4 432 4 449 4 614other $m 3 829 3 968 4 289 4 432 4 449 4 614total $m 23 320 20 935 21 916 22 741 22 526 22 985total $m 23 320 20 935 21 916 22 741 22 526 22 985

L b $ 3 827 3 784 4 120 4 234 4 288 4 378Labour $m 3 827 3 784 4 120 4 234 4 288 4 378Overheads

interest paid $m 4 331 4 455 5 023 4 836 4 341 4 386interest paid $m 4 331 4 455 5 023 4 836 4 341 4 386rent and third party insurance $m 477 494 513 525 537 551rent and third party insurance $m 477 494 513 525 537 551

Total $m 8 634 8 733 9 655 9 595 9 166 9 314Total $m 8 634 8 733 9 655 9 595 9 166 9 314

Total cash costs $m 31 955 29 668 31 571 32 336 31 692 32 300Total cash costs $m 31 955 29 668 31 571 32 336 31 692 32 300Depreciation a $m 4 676 4 792 4 944 5 068 5 200 5 339Depreciation a $m 4 676 4 792 4 944 5 068 5 200 5 339Total farm costs $m 36 631 34 460 36 515 37 404 36 892 37 639Total farm costs $m 36 631 34 460 36 515 37 404 36 892 37 639

Returns Gross value of farm production $m 41 929 39 665 46 914 47 972 47 253 47 715Returns Gross value of farm production $m 41 929 39 665 46 914 47 972 47 253 47 715

N d d iNet returns and production Net value of farm production b $m 5 298 5 204 10 399 10 568 10 361 10 076

pNet value of farm production b $m 5 298 5 204 10 399 10 568 10 361 10 076Real net value of farm production c $m 5 853 5 619 10 889 10 816 10 361 9 832Real net value of farm production c $m 5 853 5 619 10 889 10 816 10 361 9 832N t f h i d $ 5 865 9 997 15 343 15 636 15 561 15 415Net farm cash income d $m 5 865 9 997 15 343 15 636 15 561 15 415Real net farm cash income c $m 6 479 10 793 16 066 16 004 15 561 15 043Real net farm cash income c $

a Based on estimated movements in capital expenditure and prices of capital inputs. b Gross value of farm production less total farm costs. c In 2012–13 Australian dollars. d Gross farm cash income less total cash costs. f ABARES forecast.Note: Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES (compiled from various market sources); Australian Bureau of Statistics







Exports

FIGURE 5 Contribution to exports by sector, balance of payments basis Australia

2007–08

2010–11

2011–12

2008–09

2009–10

Othermerchandise

17%

Rural a15%

Mineralresources

68%

Othermerchandise

16%

Rural a14%

Mineralresources

70%

Mineralresources

71%

Rural a15%

Othermerchandise

14%

Othermerchandise

23%

Rural a16%

Mineralresources

61%

Services17%

Rural a12%

Othermerchandise

12%

Mineralresources59%

Services 17%

Rural a12%

Othermerchandise

13%

Mineralresources58%

Services20%

Rural a12%

Othermerchandise

15%

Mineralresources53%

Services18%

Rural a12%

Othermerchandise

14%

Mineralresources56%

Services22%

Rural a13%

Othermerchandise

18%

Mineralresources47%

Othermerchandise

18%

Rural a15%

Mineralresources

67%

Proportion ofmerchandise exports

Proportion of exportsof goods and services

a ABARES rural balance of payments:adjusted to include farm, �sheries and forestry products classi�ed as other merchandise by ABS.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Sectors

TABLE 5 Industry gross value added a, b Australia

STATISTICS

5 d l dd d5Industrygrossvalueaddeda,bAustralia5Industrygrossvalueaddeda,bAustraliaunit 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12unit 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12

Agriculture, forestry and fishingagriculture $m 20 179 21 858 26 172 25 604 27 727 30 204

Agriculture, forestry and fishing agriculture $m 20 179 21 858 26 172 25 604 27 727 30 204f t d fi hi $ 4 094 4 136 4 436 4 429 4 429 4 319 forestry and fishing $m 4 094 4 136 4 436 4 429 4 429 4 319y g

total $m 24 343 26 030 30 622 30 055 32 156 34 522 total $

Mining $m 117 292 119 661 123 310 133 015 131 109 138 624Mining $m 117 292 119 661 123 310 133 015 131 109 138 624Manufacturingf d b d l h l $

Manufacturing food, beverage and alcohol $m 23 328 23 294 22 556 24 205 24 085 22 886, g textile, clothing, footwear textile, clothing, footwear

and leather $m 10 018 10 486 9 386 7 331 6 855 6 707 and leather $m 10 018 10 486 9 386 7 331 6 855 6 707wood and paper products $m 7 791 7 486 6 909 7 191 7 092 7 000 wood and paper products $m 7 791 7 486 6 909 7 191 7 092 7 000i ti bli hi printing, publishing

and recorded media $m 5 034 5 161 4 319 4 133 4 125 3 839$ petroleum, coal, chemical products $m 18 728 19 190 17 259 17 903 17 913 18 012 petroleum, coal, chemical products $m 18 728 19 190 17 259 17 903 17 913 18 012non‐metallic mineral products $m 4 990 5 212 5 172 5 073 4 971 4 621 non‐metallic mineral products $m 4 990 5 212 5 172 5 073 4 971 4 621metal products $m 20 628 22 965 22 660 21 296 22 203 22 354 metal products $m 20 628 22 965 22 660 21 296 22 203 22 354ma hiner and eq ipment $ 19 712 20 352 19 579 20 731 20 566 21 207 machinery and equipment $m 19 712 20 352 19 579 20 731 20 566 21 207

l $ total $m 108 679 113 034 107 250 107 760 107 808 106 628Building and construction $m 88 152 94 317 98 381 98 639 103 338 108 033Building and construction $m 88 152 94 317 98 381 98 639 103 338 108 033Electricity, gas and water supply $m 30 959 31 036 32 335 33 200 33 811 33 357Electricity, gas and water supply $m 30 959 31 036 32 335 33 200 33 811 33 357Taxes less subsidies on products $m 90 810 92 543 91 632 91 197 93 525 93 798Taxes less subsidies on products $m 90 810 92 543 91 632 91 197 93 525 93 798St ti ti l di $ 0 0 0 0 0 4 672Statistical discrepancy $m 0 0 0 0 0 4 672

Gross domestic product $m 1 272 775 1 320 746 1 342 514 1 370 539 1 403 888 1 451 588Gross domestic product $m 1 272 775 1 320 746 1 342 514 1 370 539 1 403 888 1 451 588

a Chain volume measures, reference year is 2010–11. b ANZSIC 2006. 0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, cat. no. 5206.0, Canberra





TABLE 4 Volume of production indexes Australia

STATISTICS

4 Volume of production indexes Australia4VolumeofproductionindexesAustraliaunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f

Farmd l d

FarmGrains and oilseeds index 116.1 116.6 139.9 158.6 131.1 141.3Total crops index 113.2 114.4 126.2 138.2 124.6 130.4Total crops index 113.2 114.4 126.2 138.2 124.6 130.4

Livestock slaughterings index 111 5 109 4 110 5 110 3 115 4 115 9Livestock slaughterings index 111.5 109.4 110.5 110.3 115.4 115.9T l li k i dTotal livestock index 100.6 98.7 100.6 100.9 104.1 104.6Total farm sector index 107.9 107.5 114.2 120.1 114.9 118.2Total farm sector index 107.9 107.5 114.2 120.1 114.9 118.2

Forestry aH d d i d 120 8 107 8 110 8 103 7 95 7 106 6Forestry aHardwood index 120.8 107.8 110.8 103.7 95.7 106.6Softwood index 117.5 127.4 132.7 119.3 122.2 124.3So t oodTotal forestry index 119.5 118.5 122.7 112.3 110.0 116.3Total forestry index 119.5 118.5 122.7 112.3 110.0 116.3

a Volume of logs harvested excluding firewood. f ABARES forecast.Note: ABARE revised the method for calculating production indexes in October 1999. The indexes for the different groups of commodities are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics








Employment, banks

TABLE 6 Employment a, b Australia

STATISTICS

6 Employment Australia a b Australia6 Employment Australia a, b Australia 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 122006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12

’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000l f d f hAgriculture, forestry and fishing

agriculture 307 303 322 324 305 289g , y gagriculture 307 303 322 324 305 289forestry and logging 8 8 8 7 6 8forestry and logging 8 8 8 7 6 8

i l fi hi 10 14 9 11 12 11commercial fishing c 10 14 9 11 12 11support services 27 30 24 26 27 27support servicestotal 352 355 363 369 350 334total 352 355 363 369 350 334

Mining 136 146 170 173 204 249Mining 136 146 170 173 204 249Manufacturing

food beverages and tobacco 215 230 227 228 228 227Manufacturing

food, beverages and tobacco 215 230 227 228 228 227textiles clothing footweartextiles, clothing, footwear

d l th 51 50 48 46 44 39 and leather 51 50 48 46 44 39wood and paper product 77 70 68 64 56 55wood and paper productprinting, publishingprinting, publishingand recorded media 51 54 51 52 55 42 and recorded media 51 54 51 52 55 42

petroleum coalpetroleum, coald h i l d t 92 98 90 88 84 88 and chemical product 92 98 90 88 84 88p

non‐metallic mineral product 36 42 40 37 37 38non metallic mineral productmetal product 161 159 157 146 147 146metal product 161 159 157 146 147 146other manufacturing 342 360 348 343 334 319other manufacturing 342 360 348 343 334 319total 1 025 1 063 1 029 1 004 986 954total 1 025 1 063 1 029 1 004 986 954

Oth i d t i 8 876 9 144 9 338 9 459 9 748 9 875Other industries 8 876 9 144 9 338 9 459 9 748 9 875

Total 10 388 10 708 10 899 11 003 11 288 11 413Total 10 388 10 708 10 899 11 003 11 288 11 413

a Average employment over four quarters. b ANZSIC 2006. Caution should be used when utilising employment statistics at the ANZSIC subdivision and group levels due to estimates that may be subject to sampling variability and standard errors too high for most practical purposes. c Includes aquaculture, fishing, hunting and trapping.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force, Australia, cat. no. 6291.0, Canberra







TABLE 7 All banks lending to business a Australia

2010–11 2011–12 2012–13Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec2010 11 2011 12 2012 13

Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec $b $b $b $b $b $b $b $b$b $b $b $b $b $b $b $b

A i l f d fi hiAgriculture, forestry and fishing and forestry 58.2 60.2 60.3 60.1 60.4 62.4 60.5 59.2g , y g

and forestry 58.2 60.2 60.3 60.1 60.4 62.4 60.5 59.2Mining 11 2 12 4 13 5 14 3 15 3 17 0 18 9 18 2Mining 11.2 12.4 13.5 14.3 15.3 17.0 18.9 18.2Manufacturing 39 0 39 1 41 0 40 8 43 7 42 5 41 0 39 8Manufacturing 39.0 39.1 41.0 40.8 43.7 42.5 41.0 39.8C t ti 30 1 30 1 29 3 28 8 29 2 30 3 29 1 27 8Construction 30.1 30.1 29.3 28.8 29.2 30.3 29.1 27.8Wholesale and retail trade,transport and storage 93.3 92.8 95.4 97.3 99.5 101.7 100.6 103.2

Wholesale and retail trade, transport and storage 93.3 92.8 95.4 97.3 99.5 101.7 100.6 103.2Finance and insurance 94 1 89 4 93 4 96 5 99 2 100 8 102 7 102 9Finance and insurance 94.1 89.4 93.4 96.5 99.2 100.8 102.7 102.9Oth 316 9 314 1 315 4 320 6 321 6 329 3 342 6 342 6Other 316.9 314.1 315.4 320.6 321.6 329.3 342.6 342.6

Total 642.9 638.0 648.4 658.4 668.9 683.9 695.5 693.8Total 642.9 638.0 648.4 658.4 668.9 683.9 695.5 693.8

a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Lending to Business – Selected Statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Lending to Business – Selected Statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Lending to Business – Selected Statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Lending to Business – Selected Statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Lending to Business – Selected Statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8


Farm debt, world prices

TABLE 8 Rural indebtedness to financial institutions a Australia

STATISTICS

8 Rural indebtedness to financial institutions Australia8RuralindebtednesstofinancialinstitutionsAustralia2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–122006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mR l d btRural debtAll banks a 47 188 53 743 57 384 58 097 60 184 62 324All banks aOther government agencies b 1 286 1 409 1 620 1 811 1 871 2 076Other government agencies b 1 286 1 409 1 620 1 811 1 871 2 076Pastoral and other

fi i 4 592 5 126 4 462 2 029 2 010 1 801Pastoral and other

finance companies 4 592 5 126 4 462 2 029 2 010 1 801Large finance institutional debt c 53 066 60 278 63 467 61 937 64 065 66 201Large finance institutional debt cDepositsF d iDepositsFarm management deposits 2 782 2 879 2 843 2 784 3 216 3 532g pa Derived from all banks lending to agriculture, fishing and forestry. b Includes the government agency business of state banks and advances made under War Service Land Settlement. Before 1996 includes loans from the Queensland Industry Development Corporation. From 1996 these loans are included in bank lending. c Sum of the above. Sources: ABARES; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Reserve Bank of Australia, Estimated Rural Debt to Specified Lenders, Bulletin Statistical Table D9

a Derived from all banks lending to agriculture, fishing and forestry. b Includes the government agency business of state banks and advances made under War Service Land Settlement. Before 1996 includes loans from the Queensland Industry Development Corporation. From 1996 these loans are included in bank lending. c Sum of the above. Sources: ABARES; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Reserve Bank of Australia, Estimated Rural Debt to Specified Lenders, Bulletin Statistical Table D9






TABLE 9 Annual world indicator prices of selected commodities

STATISTICS

9 Annual world indicator prices of selected commodities9Annualworldindicatorpricesofselectedcommoditiesunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f

WorldWorldCCropsWheat a US$/t 271 209 317 299 348 315

pWheat a US$/t 271 209 317 299 348 315Corn b US$/t 190 160 254 281 312 270Corn b US$/t 190 160 254 281 312 270Rice c US$/t 609 532 518 588 558 538Rice c US$/t 609 532 518 588 558 538S b d US$/t 422 395 493 506 596 520Soybeans d US$/t 422 395 493 506 596 520Cotton e USc/lb 61.2 77.5 164.3 100.1 87.0 90.0Cotton e /Sugar g USc/lb 14.9 20.3 26.5 22.7 18.0 15.0Sugar g USc/lb 14.9 20.3 26.5 22.7 18.0 15.0

Li t k d tLivestock productsBeef h USc/kg 307 319 391 433 438 450Beef h USc/kg 307 319 391 433 438 450Wool i Ac/kg 794 872 1 132 1 203 1 035 1 080Wool i Ac/kg 794 872 1 132 1 203 1 035 1 080Butter j US$/t 2 485 3 477 4 683 3 883 3 650 3 750Butter j US$/t 2 485 3 477 4 683 3 883 3 650 3 750Cheese j US$/t 3 281 3 748 4 221 4 258 4 150 4 260Cheese j US$/t 3 281 3 748 4 221 4 258 4 150 4 260Ski ilk d $/Skim milk powder j US$/t 2 333 2 948 3 392 3 233 3 670 3 790p j

a US hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf. b US no. 2 yellow corn, delivered US Gulf. c USDA nominal quote for Thai white rice, 100 per cent, Grade B, fob, Bangkok (August–July basis). d US cif Rotterdam. e Cotlook ‘A’ index. f ABARES forecast. g Nearby futures price (October–September basis), Intercontinental Exchange, New York no. 11 contract. h US cif price. i Australian Wool Exchange eastern market indicator. j Average of traded prices (excluding subsidised sales). Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Dairy Corporation; Meat & Livestock Australia; Australian Wool Exchange; Cotlook Ltd; Food and Agriculture Organization; General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade; ISTA Mielke and Co.; New York Board of Trade; Reuters Ltd; United States Department of Agriculture; Intercontinental Exchange












Gross unit values

TABLE 10 Gross unit values of farm products a

STATISTICS

10 Gross unit values of farm products a10Grossunitvaluesoffarmproductsaunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f

C bCrops bpGrains and oilseedsGrains and oilseedsWinter crops

barley $/t 231 172 216 210 272 231Winter crops

barley $/t 231 172 216 210 272 231canola $/t 548 440 544 513 559 536canola $/t 548 440 544 513 559 536fi ld $/ 345 241 266 359 413 281field peas $/t 345 241 266 359 413 281plupins $/t 280 249 268 232 260 229lupins $/t 280 249 268 232 260 229oats $/t 216 160 196 202 242 228oats $/t 216 160 196 202 242 228triticale $/t 257 220 184 176 236 225triticale $/t 257 220 184 176 236 225wheat $/t 281 218 257 227 342 305wheat $/t 281 218 257 227 342 305

SSummer cropscorn (maize) $/t 283 268 259 251 293 277corn (maize) $/rice $/t 566 457 240 270 297 263rice $/t 566 457 240 270 297 263grain sorghum $/t 205 196 213 189 243 216grain sorghum $/t 205 196 213 189 243 216so beans $/t 551 551 501 472 451 447soybeans c $/t 551 551 501 472 451 447

$/sunflower seed c $/t 696 696 567 551 551 540sunflower seed c /

Industrial cropsCotton lint d c/kg 193 205 377 225 196 213Industrial cropsCotton lint d c/kg 193 205 377 225 196 213S ( t f hi ) $/ 32 44 38 43 33 30Sugar cane (cut for crushing) $/t 32 44 38 43 33 30g ( g)Wine grapes $/t 527 464 413 465 474 484Wine grapes $/t 527 464 413 465 474 484

LivestockB f ttl /k 320 311 336 337 304 288

LivestockBeef cattle c/kg 320 311 336 337 304 288Lambs c/kg 415 444 519 465 383 400/ gPig c/kg 304 291 269 266 270 280Pig c/kg 304 291 269 266 270 280Poultry c/kg 215 204 197 193 201 205Poultry c/kg 215 204 197 193 201 205

Livestock productsW l /k 430 456 623 695 571 603

Livestock productsWool c/kg 430 456 623 695 571 603Milk c/L 42.5 37.4 43.2 42.1 39.5 43.5Milk c/ 5 3 3 39 5 3 5

a Average gross unit value across all grades in principal markets, unless otherwise indicated. Includes the cost of containers,commission and other expenses incurred in getting the commodities to their principal markets. These expenses are significant.b Average unit gross value relates to returns received from crops harvested in that year, regardless of when sales take place, unless otherwise indicated. c Price paid by crusher. d Australian base price for sales in the financial year indicated.f ABARES forecast. Note: Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics











World

TABLE 11 World production, consumption, stocks and trade for selected commodities a

STATISTICS

11 World production consumption stocks and trade for selected commodities a11Worldproduction,consumption,stocksandtradeforselectedcommoditiesaunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f

FarmG iFarmGrainsWheat

production Mt 685 679 652 696 655 690Wheat

production Mt 685 679 652 696 655 690consumption Mt 645 652 659 692 676 687consumption Mt 645 652 659 692 676 687closing stocks Mt 172 199 193 197 177 180closing stocks Mt 172 199 193 197 177 180exports b Mt 137 128 126 145 130 142exports b

Coarse grainsproduction Mt 1 113 1 113 1 098 1 155 1 130 1 243

Coarse grainsproduction Mt 1 113 1 113 1 098 1 155 1 130 1 243

iconsumption Mt 1 080 1 103 1 130 1 155 1 144 1 215pclosing stocks Mt 195 197 165 165 151 180closing stocks Mt 195 197 165 165 151 180exports b Mt 125 143 125 148 115 138exports b Mt 125 143 125 148 115 138

Riced i

Riceproduction c Mt 448 441 449 466 470 472p Mt 448 441 449 466 470 472consumption c Mt 437 437 445 458 470 472consumption c Mt 437 437 445 458 470 472closing stocks c Mt 92 96 99 107 107 107closing stocks c Mt 92 96 99 107 107 107

t bdexports bd Mt 29 31 36 39 37 38

Oilseeds and vegetable oilsOil dOilseeds and vegetable oilsOilseeds

production Mt 397 445 457 438 463 487production Mt 397 445 457 438 463 487consumption Mt 401 421 444 455 459 478consumption Mt 401 421 444 455 459 478closing stocks Mt 57 75 83 65 70 79closing stocks Mt 57 75 83 65 70 79exports Mt 94 108 109 109 111 122e po s

Vegetable oilsproduction Mt 134 141 148 152 157 165

Vegetable oilsproduction Mt 134 141 148 152 157 165

i M 131 139 145 150 155 162consumption Mt 131 139 145 150 155 162pclosing stocks Mt 13 14 14 16 16 19closing stocks Mt 13 14 14 16 16 19exports Mt 56 58 60 62 66 68exports Mt 56 58 60 62 66 68

Vegetable protein mealsVegetable protein mealsproduction Mt 224 240 252 258 262 275productionconsumption Mt 223 234 246 257 262 274consumption Mt 223 234 246 257 262 274closing stocks Mt 6 8 11 11 10 11closing stocks Mt 6 8 11 11 10 11exports Mt 66 70 75 79 79 83p

Industrial cropsC ttIndustrial cropsCotton

production Mt 23 22 25 27 26 26production Mt 23 22 25 27 26 26consumption Mt 23 26 25 22 23 24consumption Mt 23 26 25 22 23 24closing stocks Mt 13 10 11 16 18 20closing stocks Mt 13 10 11 16 18 20exports Mt 7 8 8 10 10 9p

Sugarproduction Mt 149 159 165 174 182 182

Sugarproduction Mt 149 159 165 174 182 182

ti M 162 163 164 168 172 176consumption Mt 162 163 164 168 172 176pclosing stocks Mt 61 57 58 64 69 75closing stocks Mt 61 57 58 64 69 75exports Mt 48 55 55 54 56 59exports Mt 48 55 55 54 56 59

ContinuedContinued


World

TABLE 11 World production, consumption, stocks and trade for selected commodities a continued

STATISTICS

11 World production consumption stocks and trade for selected commodities a co11Worldproduction,consumption,stocksandtradeforselectedcommoditiesacounit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f

Livestock productsLivestock products Meat deg

production Mt 250 257 259 265 270 272Meat deg

production Mt 250 257 259 265 270 272consumption Mt 248 254 255 261 266 269consumption Mt 248 254 255 261 266 269closing stocks Mt 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 6 2 5 2 5closing stocks Mt 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.5

t bexports b Mt 23.2 24.4 26.3 27.3 27.9 29.1Wool h

production kt 1 104 1 119 1 120 1 089 1 111 1 113Wool h

production kt 1 104 1 119 1 120 1 089 1 111 1 113consumption di kt 1 105 1 125 1 130 1 110 1 105 1 127consumption di kt 1 105 1 125 1 130 1 110 1 105 1 127l i kclosing stocks j kt 65 55 45 23 29 27g j kt 65 55 45 23 29 27exports k kt 484 501 502 447 485 496exports k kt 484 501 502 447 485 496

B tter dButter dgproduction kt 8 039 8 181 8 571 8 888 9 084 9 140productionconsumption kt 7 549 7 828 8 093 8 419 8 642 8 710consumption kt 7 549 7 828 8 093 8 419 8 642 8 710closing stocks kt 257 176 201 236 202 190closing stocks kt 257 176 201 236 202 190

k 8 3 36 2 8 88 800exports kt 813 736 727 758 788 800pSkim milk powder gl

production d kt 3 452 3 415 3 671 3 909 3 915 4 100Skim milk powder gl

production d kt 3 452 3 415 3 671 3 909 3 915 4 100consumption d kt 2 920 3 000 3 185 3 334 3 406 3 610consumption d kt 2 920 3 000 3 185 3 334 3 406 3 610l i t k dclosing stocks d kt 556 496 449 433 379 360exports kt 1 140 1 344 1 529 1 649 1 652 1 700exports kt 1 140 1 344 1 529 1 649 1 652 1 700

a Some figures are not based on precise or complete analyses. b Includes intra‐EU trade. cMilled equivalent. d On a calendar year basis, e.g. 1991–92 = 1992. e Beef and veal, mutton, lamb, goat, pig and poultry meat. f ABARES forecast. g Selected countries. h Clean equivalent. i Virgin wool at the spinning stage in 65 countries. j Held by marketing bodies and on‐farm in five major exporting countries. k Five major exporting countries. l Non‐fat dry milk. Sources: ABARES; Argentine Wool Federation; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Capewools South Africa; Commodities Research Unit; Commonwealth Secretariat; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Economic Commission for Europe; Fearnleys; Food and Agriculture Organization; International Grains Council; International Sugar Organization; ISTA Mielke and Co.; Meat & Livestock Australia; Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (Japan); New Zealand Dairy Board; New Zealand Wool Board; Poimena Analysis, Beef + Lamb New Zealand; Uruguayan Association of Wool Exporters; United States Department of Agriculture














Australian production

TABLE 12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production Australia

STATISTICS

unit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f

barley kt 7 997 7 865 7 995 8 221 6 761 7 417canola kt 1 844 1 907 2 359 3 427 3 898 3 230chickpeas kt 443 487 513 673 713 683field peas kt 238 356 395 342 320 363lupins kt 708 823 808 982 459 801oats kt 1 160 1 162 1 128 1 262 1 048 1 116triticale kt 363 545 355 285 429 380wheat kt 21 420 21 834 27 410 29 905 22 079 25 399

cottonseed kt 466 547 1 269 1 694 1 403 1 407corn (maize) kt 376 328 357 451 496 410rice kt 61 197 723 919 1 160 997grain sorghum kt 2 692 1 508 1 935 2 239 1 721 2 108soybeans kt 80 60 30 86 113 114sunflower seed kt 55 41 43 47 34 45other oilseeds a kt 34 40 33 35 40 39

Total grains and oilseeds kt 37 935 37 699 45 352 50 567 40 673 44 509

Cotton lint kt 329 387 898 1 198 992 995Sugar cane (cut for crushing) kt 31 457 31 235 27 443 27 943 30 200 32 225Sugar (tonnes actual) kt 4 634 4 472 3 610 3 683 4 300 4 541Wine grapes kt 1 684 1 533 1 598 1 581 1 670 1 685

apples kt 295 264 300 289 295 300bananas kt 270 302 203 286 312 318oranges kt 348 391 292 390 360 380

carrots kt 264 267 225 319 319 322onions kt 284 260 331 347 310 300potatoes kt 1 179 1 278 1 128 1 288 1 290 1 292tomatoes kt 440 472 302 372 400 418

Cattle and calves ’000 8 583 8 364 8 097 7 873 8 395 8 700Sheep ’000 10 501 7 333 5 341 5 175 7 897 6 319Lambs ’000 20 395 19 478 17 880 18 879 21 234 19 574Pigs ’000 4 476 4 561 4 643 4 733 4 658 4 575

Cattle exported live b ’000 845 871 728 579 480 470Sheep exported live c ’000 4 067 3 060 2 916 2 562 1 880 1 950

Beef and veal d kt 2 125 2 109 2 133 2 115 2 230 2 300Lamb d kt 416 413 391 419 464 431Mutton d kt 220 162 123 120 179 146Pig meat kt 321 331 342 351 349 340Chicken meat d kt 832 834 1 015 1 030 1 045 1 070Total kt 3 914 3 849 4 005 4 034 4 267 4 287

Continued

Slaughterings

Live exports

Meat produced

Winter crops

Summer crops

Fruit

Vegetables

12Agricultural,fisheriesandforestrycommodityproductionAustraliaCropsGrains and oilseeds

Industrial crops

Horticulture

Livestock


Australian production

TABLE 12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production Australia continued

STATISTICS

12 Agricultural fisheries and forestry commodity production Australia continued12Agricultural,fisheriesandforestrycommodityproductionAustraliacontinuedunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f

Livestock productsLivestock products Wool e kt 420 423 429 411 429 415Wool eMilk g ML 9 388 9 023 9 101 9 480 9 240 9 450Milk g ML 9 388 9 023 9 101 9 480 9 240 9 450Butter h kt 148 128 122 120 118 120Butter h kt 148 128 122 120 118 120Cheese kt 325 349 339 340 336 346Cheese kt 325 349 339 340 336 346C i k 10 8 5 5 4 4Casein kt 10 8 5 5 4 4Skim milk powder i kt 212 190 222 230 225 230Skim milk powder iWhole milk powder kt 148 126 151 140 116 118Whole milk powder kt 148 126 151 140 116 118Buttermilk powder kt 15 13 12 11 11 12Buttermilk powder kt 15 13 12 11 11 12

Forestry – logs harvested jHardwood ’000 m3 12 485 11 144 11 585 9 733 9 890 11 017Forestry logs harvested jHardwood ’000 m3 12 485 11 144 11 585 9 733 9 890 11 017Softwood ’000 3 13 314 14 433 14 981 14 026 13 849 14 083Softwood ’000 m3 13 314 14 433 14 981 14 026 13 849 14 083Total 3 25 799 25 577 26 567 23 759 23 739 25 100Total ’000 m3 25 799 25 577 26 567 23 759 23 739 25 100

Fisheries kTuna kt 13 7 11 0 9 1 10 9 11 4 11 6Fisheries k Tuna kt 13.7 11.0 9.1 10.9 11.4 11.6S l id l kt 30 0 32 0 36 8 44 0 47 0 49 3Salmonids l kt 30.0 32.0 36.8 44.0 47.0 49.3h f hOther fish kt 115.7 120.7 110.8 115.7 116.9 114.5

Prawns kt 24.2 27.3 26.9 23.9 23.7 23.9Prawns kt 24.2 27.3 26.9 23.9 23.7 23.9Rock lobster m kt 12.2 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.6Rock lobster m kt 12.2 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.6Abalone kt 5 6 5 0 5 2 5 0 5 1 5 1Abalone kt 5.6 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.1Scallops kt 7 6 7 6 6 2 2 3 3 0 3 3Scallops kt 7.6 7.6 6.2 2.3 3.0 3.3Oysters kt 14.2 14.9 14.0 15.8 15.1 15.2yOther molluscs kt 6.6 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.6Other molluscs kt 6.6 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.6Other crustaceans kt 5.8 5.7 6.1 6.2 6.0 6.1Other crustaceans kt 5.8 5.7 6.1 6.2 6.0 6.1

a Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Excludes animals exported for breeding purposes. c Includes animals for breeding. d In carcass weight and includes carcass equivalent of canned meats. e Greasy equivalent of shorn wool (includes crutching), dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins. f ABARES forecast. g Includes the whole milk equivalent of farm cream intake.h Includes the butter equivalent of butteroil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. i Includes mixed skim and buttermilk powder. j Excludes logs harvested for firewood. k Liveweight. l Includes salmon and trout production.m Includes Queensland bugs.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Dairy Corporation; Australian Fisheries Management Authority; Department of Fisheries, Western Australia; Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Tasmania; Fisheries Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation; Fisheries Victoria, Department of Primary Industries; Industry & Investment New South Wales; Northern Territory Department of Regional Development, Primary Industry, Fisheries and Resources; Primary Industries and Resources, South Australia; Raw Cotton Marketing Advisory Committee; South Australian Research and Development Institute; State and Territory Forest Services; various Australian forestry industries


















Value of production

TABLE 13 Gross value of farm and fisheries production Australia

STATISTICS

2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 s 2012–13 f 2013–14 f$m $m $m $m $m $m

barley 1 850 1 356 1 729 1 723 1 838 1 716canola 1 011 840 1 283 1 759 2 178 1 732chickpeas 199 211 207 308 293 274field peas 82 86 105 123 132 102lupins 198 205 216 228 119 183oats 251 186 221 255 254 255triticale 93 120 65 50 101 85wheat 6 021 4 765 7 052 6 775 7 562 7 752

maize 106 88 92 113 146 114rice 34 90 174 248 344 262grain sorghum 553 296 412 423 417 455soybeans 44 33 15 41 51 51sunflower seed 38 29 24 26 18 24other oilseeds a 28 34 27 27 31 30

Total grains and oilseeds 10 778 8 662 12 134 12 497 13 950 13 410

Cotton lint and cottonseed b 693 828 2 024 2 889 2 001 2 152Sugar cane (cut for crushing) 1 021 1 382 1 036 1 214 1 007 963Wine grapes 887 709 712 735 792 815Total industrial crops 2 601 2 919 3 771 4 838 3 800 3 930

Table and dried grapes 286 273 308 308 307 296Fruit and nuts (excl. grapes) 2 871 2 950 3 013 3 050 3 273 3 450Vegetables 3 012 3 023 3 338 3 339 3 600 3 710Other horticulture 1 556 1 649 1 606 1 272 1 414 1 549Total horticulture 7 725 7 895 8 265 7 968 8 594 9 005Other crops nei c 1 665 1 660 1 706 1 550 1 185 1 205

Total crops 22 769 21 136 25 876 26 852 27 529 27 550Continued

13GrossvalueoffarmandfisheriesproductionAustralia

CropsGrains and oilseeds

Industrial crops

Horticulture

Winter crops

Summer crops


Value of production

TABLE 13 Gross value of farm and fisheries production Australia continued

STATISTICS

13 Gross value of farm and fisheries production Australia continued13GrossvalueoffarmandfisheriesproductionAustraliacontinued2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 s 2012–13 f 2013–14 f2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 s 2012–13 f 2013–14 f

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mLi t kLivestockl hSlaughteringsCattle and calves d 6 806 6 567 7 164 7 134 6 776 6 613

g gCattle and calves d 6 806 6 567 7 164 7 134 6 776 6 613Sheep e 428 499 484 383 323 299Sheep e 428 499 484 383 323 299Lambs eg 1 725 1 832 2 029 1 950 1 775 1 723Lambs eg 1 725 1 832 2 029 1 950 1 775 1 723Pi 976 965 919 934 944 951Pigs 976 965 919 934 944 951gPoultry 1 862 1 785 2 077 2 078 2 196 2 300Poultry 1 862 1 785 2 077 2 078 2 196 2 300Live exportsC ttl t d li h 646 701 660 651 574 565Live exportsCattle exported live h 646 701 660 651 574 565Sheep exported live h 340 298 348 345 197 224Sheep exported live hTotal livestock i 12 834 12 722 13 795 13 615 12 946 12 850Total livestock i 12 834 12 722 13 795 13 615 12 946 12 850

Livestock productsLivestock products Wool j 1 806 1 928 2 673 2 857 2 446 2 502Wool j Milk k 3 988 3 371 3 932 3 986 3 650 4 111Milk k 3 988 3 371 3 932 3 986 3 650 4 111Eggs 447 428 572 583 595 610Eggs 447 428 572 583 595 610Honey and beeswax 86 80 66 79 88 92Honey and beeswax 86 80 66 79 88 92

Total livestock products 6 326 5 807 7 243 7 505 6 778 7 314Total livestock products 6 326 5 807 7 243 7 505 6 778 7 314

T l fTotal farm 41 929 39 665 46 914 47 972 47 253 47 715

Forestry products lHardwood 936 852 892 762 685 802Forestry products lHardwood 936 852 892 762 685 802S ft d 823 924 959 885 803 827Softwood 823 924 959 885 803 827

lTotal 1 759 1 777 1 851 1 647 1 488 1 629759 777 85 647 488 6 9

Fisheries productsT 187 125 150 175 181 176Fisheries products mTuna 187 125 150 175 181 176Salmonids n 326 369 410 513 534 564Salmonids nOther fish o 463 464 424 451 447 444Other fish o 463 464 424 451 447 444Prawns 290 325 305 284 299 312Prawns 290 325 305 284 299 312Rock lobster q 415 381 390 416 396 402Rock lobster q 415 381 390 416 396 402Abalone 189 173 178 170 173 189Abalone 189 173 178 170 173 189Scallops 26 23 22 8 9 11Scallops 26 23 22 8 9 11O t 93 101 97 107 107 109Oysters 93 101 97 107 107 109Pearls r 90 105 120 114 113 112Pearls rOther molluscs t 49 32 31 38 35 36Other molluscs t 49 32 31 38 35 36Other crustaceans 66 65 65 76 69 70Other crustaceans 66 65 65 76 69 70T t l fi h 2 214 2 191 2 231 2 387 2 394 2 460Total fish 2 214 2 191 2 231 2 387 2 394 2 460

a Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Value delivered to gin. cMainly fodder crops. d Includes dairy cattle slaughtered.e Excludes skin values. f ABARES forecast. g Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18–22 kg. h Includes animals exported for breeding purposes. i Total livestock slaughterings includes livestock disposals. j Shorn, dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins. kMilk intake by factories and valued at the farm gate. l Excludes logs harvested for firewood.m Value to fishers of product landed in Australia. n Includes salmon and trout production. o Includes an estimated value of aquaculture. q Includes Queensland bugs. r Includes Northern Territory aquaculture production from 2009–10.s ABARES estimate. t Also includes fish and aquaculture values not elsewhere included. nei not elsewhere included.Note: The gross value of production is the value placed on recorded production at the wholesale prices realised in the marketplace. The point of measurement can vary between commodities. Generally the marketplace is the metropolitan market in each state and territory. However, where commodities are consumed locally or where they become raw material for a secondary industry, these points are presumed to be the marketplace. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

















Areas, stock

TABLE 14 Crop and forestry areas and livestock numbers Australia

STATISTICS

14 Crop and forestry areas and livestock numbers Australia14CropandforestryareasandlivestocknumbersAustraliaunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f

Crop areasCrop areasi d il dGrains and oilseeds

Winter cropsbarley ’000 ha 5 015 4 422 3 681 3 718 3 680 3 752

Winter cropsbarley 000 ha 5 015 4 422 3 681 3 718 3 680 3 752canola ’000 ha 1 693 1 695 2 078 2 461 2 970 2 454canola ’000 ha 1 693 1 695 2 078 2 461 2 970 2 454hi k ’000 h 338 429 653 456 564 488chickpeas ’000 ha 338 429 653 456 564 488f ldfield peas ’000 ha 300 285 318 249 281 261plupins ’000 ha 577 692 756 689 450 417lupins 000 ha 577 692 756 689 450 417oats ’000 ha 870 850 826 731 668 747oats 000 ha 870 850 826 731 668 747triticale ’000 ha 323 350 187 145 258 216triticale ’000 ha 323 350 187 145 258 216wheat ’000 ha 13 530 13 881 13 502 13 902 13 243 13 677wheat ’000 ha 13 530 13 881 13 502 13 902 13 243 13 677

SSummer cropsmaize ’000 ha 65 59 62 70 81 67

pmaize 000 ha 65 59 62 70 81 67rice ’000 ha 7 19 76 103 116 110rice 000 ha 7 19 76 103 116 110grain sorghum ’000 ha 767 498 633 659 565 627grain sorghum ’000 ha 767 498 633 659 565 627soybeans ’000 ha 42 31 17 38 51 54soybeans ’000 ha 42 31 17 38 51 54

fl d ’000 h 52 27 37 40 28 37sunflower seed ’000 ha 52 27 37 40 28 37other oilseeds a ’000 ha 20 16 19 18 17 17other oilseeds a

Total grains and oilseeds ’000 ha 24 095 23 787 23 946 24 295 23 858 23 799Total grains and oilseeds 000 ha 24 095 23 787 23 946 24 295 23 858 23 799

Industrial cropsC ’ hIndustrial cropsCotton ’000 ha 164 208 590 600 442 445Sugar cane b ’000 ha 391 389 334 370 380 388Sugar cane b 000 ha 391 389 334 370 380 388Winegrapes e ’000 ha 157 152 154 145 151 153Winegrapes e 000 ha 157 152 154 145 151 153

Livestock numbers cLivestock numbers cCattle

beef million 25 29 24 01 25 94 25 69 25 40 25 20Cattle

beef million 25.29 24.01 25.94 25.69 25.40 25.20dairy million 2 61 2 54 2 57 2 73 2 72 2 72dairy million 2.61 2.54 2.57 2.73 2.72 2.72milking herd d illi 1 68 1 60 1 59 1 70 1 69 1 70 milking herd d million 1.68 1.60 1.59 1.70 1.69 1.70

total million 27.91 26.55 28.51 28.42 28.12 27.92Sheep million 72.7 68.1 73.1 74.7 74.0 73.6Sheep million 72.7 68.1 73.1 74.7 74.0 73.6Pigs million 2.30 2.29 2.29 2.14 2.12 2.08Pigs million 2.30 2.29 2.29 2.14 2.12 2.08

F t l t tiForestry plantation areaBroadleaved ’000 ha 991 973 980 977 na na

y pBroadleaved 000 ha 991 973 980 977 na naConiferous ’000 ha 1 020 1 024 1 025 1 024 na naConiferous 000 ha 1 020 1 024 1 025 1 024 na naTotal plantation area g ’000 ha 2 020 2 009 2 017 2 013 na naTotal plantation area g ’000 ha 2 020 2 009 2 017 2 013 na na

a Linseed and safflower seed. b Cut for crushing. c At 30 June. d Cows in milk and dry. e This figure is for grapes for wine only. Prior to 2008–09 this figure includes grapes used for winemaking and other purposes such as drying and table.f ABARES forecast. g Includes areas where plantation type is unknown. na not available.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics








Yields

TABLE 15 Average farm yields Australia

STATISTICS

15 Average farm yields Australia15AveragefarmyieldsAustraliaunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f

CropsCropsG i d il dGrains and oilseedsWinter crops

barley t/ha 1.59 1.78 2.17 2.21 1.84 1.98Winter crops

barley t/ha 1.59 1.78 2.17 2.21 1.84 1.98canola t/ha 1 09 1 13 1 14 1 39 1 31 1 32canola t/ha 1.09 1.13 1.14 1.39 1.31 1.32chickpeas t/ha 1 31 1 14 0 79 1 48 1 27 1 40chickpeas t/ha 1.31 1.14 0.79 1.48 1.27 1.40fi ld /hfield peas t/ha 0.79 1.25 1.24 1.38 1.14 1.39plupins t/ha 1.23 1.19 1.07 1.42 1.02 1.92lupins t/ha 1.23 1.19 1.07 1.42 1.02 1.92oats t/ha 1.33 1.37 1.37 1.73 1.57 1.49oats t/ha 1.33 1.37 1.37 1.73 1.57 1.49triticale t/ha 1 12 1 56 1 90 1 97 1 66 1 76triticale t/ha 1.12 1.56 1.90 1.97 1.66 1.76wheat t/ha 1 58 1 57 2 03 2 15 1 67 1 86wheat t/ha 1.58 1.57 2.03 2.15 1.67 1.86

SSummer cropsmaize t/ha 5.82 5.56 5.74 6.47 6.13 6.12maize /rice t/ha 8.46 10.39 9.54 8.91 10.01 9.06rice t/ha 8.46 10.39 9.54 8.91 10.01 9.06grain sorghum t/ha 3 51 3 03 3 06 3 40 3 05 3 36grain sorghum t/ha 3.51 3.03 3.06 3.40 3.05 3.36soybeans t/ha 1 89 1 90 1 71 2 26 2 22 2 12soybeans t/ha 1.89 1.90 1.71 2.26 2.22 2.12

fl d t/h 1 07 1 54 1 14 1 17 1 19 1 21sunflower seed t/ha 1.07 1.54 1.14 1.17 1.19 1.21

Industrial cropsCotton (lint) t/ha 2 01 1 86 1 52 2 00 2 24 2 24Industrial cropsCotton (lint) t/ha 2.01 1.86 1.52 2.00 2.24 2.24Sugar cane (for crushing) t/ha 80 80 82 76 79 83Sugar cane (for crushing) t/ha 80 80 82 76 79 83Wi /h 10 10 1 10 4 10 9 11 1 11 0Winegrapes t/ha 10.7 10.1 10.4 10.9 11.1 11.0g pLivestockWool a kg/sheep 4 29 4 26 4 34 4 19 4 26 4 20LivestockWool a kg/sheep 4.29 4.26 4.34 4.19 4.26 4.20Wh l ilk L/ 5 602 5 653 5 727 5 577 5 467 5 575Whole milk L/cow 5 602 5 653 5 727 5 577 5 467 5 575a Shorn (including lambs). f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Shorn (including lambs). f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Shorn (including lambs). f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Shorn (including lambs). f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Export volumes

TABLE 16 Volume of agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports Australia a

STATISTICS

unit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f

barley b kt 3 898 4 234 4 625 6 568 4 781 4 675canola kt 973 1 238 1 471 2 323 3 413 2 352chickpeas kt 467 459 409 653 888 447lupins kt 157 377 289 316 320 195oats (unprepared) kt 196 216 127 163 87 133peas c kt 118 163 254 248 207 207wheat d kt 13 410 13 725 18 431 23 026 21 461 19 450

cottonseed kt 37 106 268 654 709 658maize kt 69 15 12 68 108 95rice kt 106 54 174 538 638 588grain sorghum kt 1 368 487 553 1 112 979 816other oilseeds e kt 10 13 7 6 10 9

Total grains and oilseeds kt 20 809 21 088 26 620 35 674 33 601 29 625

Raw cotton g kt 260 395 505 994 1 123 988Sugar kt 3 268 3 506 2 735 2 572 2 996 3 241Wine ML 750 777 727 713 701 735

Beef and veal hi kt 968 899 937 948 1 015 1 070Live cattle j ’000 845 871 728 579 480 470Lamb h kt 156 157 157 174 202 177Live sheep k ’000 4 067 3 060 2 916 2 562 1 880 1 950Mutton h kt 146 111 86 89 144 109Pig meat h kt 32 30 31 29 26 25Poultry meat h kt 37 28 31 38 31 38

Greasy ls kt 314 308 335 301 320 305Semi‐processed kt (gr eq) 62 49 44 37 35 33Skins kt (gr eq) 70 71 65 67 86 82

Total ks kt (gr eq) 445 428 444 405 440 420

Butter m kt 70 74 56 49 54 50Cheese kt 146 168 163 161 160 165Casein kt 8 10 5 4 4 4Skim milk powder kt 162 126 155 141 150 153Whole milk powder kt 116 91 108 102 88 90

Continued

Dairy products

Winter crops

Summer crops

16Volumeofagricultural,fisheriesandforestryexportsAustraliaaFarmGrains and oilseeds

Industrial crops

Meat and live animals

Wool


Export volumes

TABLE 16 Volume of agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports Australia a continued

STATISTICS

16 Volume of agricultural fisheries and forestry exports Australia a continued16Volumeofagricultural,fisheriesandforestryexportsAustraliaacontinuedunit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 funit 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f

Forest productsd

Forest productsSawnwood ’000 m3 355 387 348 252 245 282000 mWood‐based panels ’000 m3 345 256 253 214 174 203Wood based panels 000 m 345 256 253 214 174 203Paper and paperboard kt 769 890 1 029 1 121 1 122 1 125Paper and paperboard kt 769 890 1 029 1 121 1 122 1 125Woodchips kt 5 255 4 818 5 064 4 150 3 810 4 099Woodchips kt 5 255 4 818 5 064 4 150 3 810 4 099

Fisheries productsTuna kt 11.5 9.5 7.8 8.9 9.3 9.4Fisheries productsTuna kt 11.5 9.5 7.8 8.9 9.3 9.4Salmonids kt 6 6 4 0 6 4 5 8 2 9 4 8Salmonids kt 6.6 4.0 6.4 5.8 2.9 4.8Other fish kt 7 5 7 1 7 7 6 5 6 4 6 5Other fish kt 7.5 7.1 7.7 6.5 6.4 6.5Prawns n

Frozen kt 4.7 4.5 6.4 5.3 3.8 3.9Frozen kt 4.7 4.5 6.4 5.3 3.8 3.9Rock lobsterRock lobster

Fresh chilled frozenor cooked kt 9 6 7 7 7 0 6 9 6 9 7 0

Fresh, chilled, frozen or cooked kt 9.6 7.7 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.0

Ab lAbaloneLive, fresh or chilled kt 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.7ive, fresh or chilledFrozen or cooked kt 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8Frozen or cooked kt 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8Prepared or preserved kt 0 9 1 1 1 0 0 8 0 7 0 9Prepared or preserved kt 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.9

Scallops o kt 1 1 1 1 0 6 0 4 0 4 0 5Scallops o kt 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5

a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the volume of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Includes field peas and cowpeas. d Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. e Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. f ABARES forecast. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h In shipped weight. Fresh, chilled or frozen. i Includes meat loaf. j Excludes breeding stock. k Includes breeding stock.l ABS recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas. m Includes ghee, dry butterfat, butter concentrate and butteroil, and dairy spreads, all expressed as butter. n Excludes volume of other prawn products. o Includes crumbed scallops. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade













Export values

TABLE 17 Value of agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports (fob) Australia a

STATISTICS

2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f$m $m $m $m $m $m

barley b 1 321 1 093 1 295 1 875 1 495 1 391canola 595 583 866 1 344 2 011 1 331chickpeas 275 255 213 384 556 415lupins 61 115 89 86 99 51oats 64 53 37 47 27 37peas c 62 60 85 93 87 92wheat d 5 028 3 692 5 516 6 378 6 891 6 617

cottonseed 19 46 85 195 202 189corn (maize) 13 8 6 24 38 31rice 143 59 154 458 513 436grain sorghum 405 116 146 299 264 231other oilseeds e 27 24 14 10 14 14

Total grains and oilseeds 8 015 6 102 8 505 11 193 12 197 10 835

Raw cotton g 500 755 1 367 2 736 2 352 2 174Sugar 1 338 1 887 1 436 1 556 1 397 1 290Wine 2 428 2 164 1 957 1 859 1 822 1 960Total industrial crops 4 266 4 805 4 760 6 151 5 571 5 424

Fruit 683 585 456 505 558 494Tree nuts 233 212 211 240 283 308Vegetables 487 542 607 712 664 612Nursery 29 23 20 15 13 18Other horticulture h 280 274 293 258 243 290Total horticulture 1 712 1 637 1 588 1 729 1 762 1 722Other crops and crop products 2 368 2 346 2 461 2 517 2 653 2 755Total crops 16 361 14 890 17 313 21 589 22 183 20 736

Beef and veal 4 857 3 953 4 328 4 467 4 840 5 080Live cattle i 538 550 499 412 329 306Lamb 925 916 1 026 1 060 1 065 977Live sheep j 340 298 348 345 197 224Mutton 482 433 404 362 477 403Pig meat 124 109 106 100 81 80Poultry meat 43 36 38 45 42 50Total meat and live animals 7 309 6 294 6 749 6 791 7 031 7 119

Greasy k 1 729 1 773 2 371 2 448 2 298 2 192Semi‐processed 281 238 251 242 205 195Skins 312 291 426 433 380 364Total k 2 322 2 303 3 048 3 123 2 883 2 751

Continued

17Valueofagricultural,fisheriesandforestryexports(fob)Australiaa

Meat and live animals

Wool

Winter crops

Summer crops

FarmGrains and oilseeds

Industrial crops

Horticulture


Export values

TABLE 17 Value of agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports (fob) Australia a continued

STATISTICS

17 Value of agricultural fisheries and forestry exports Australia a continued17Valueofagricultural,fisheriesandforestryexportsAustraliaacontinued2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 f 2013–14 f

$ $ $ $ $ $$m $m $m $m $m $mD i dDairy productsButter 232 211 252 201 180 178

y pButter 232 211 252 201 180 178Cheese 796 715 731 751 721 802Cheese 796 715 731 751 721 802Casein 107 88 53 48 42 44Casein 107 88 53 48 42 44Skim milk powder 553 352 504 474 503 556Skim milk powder 553 352 504 474 503 556Wh l ilk dWhole milk powder 475 296 402 378 317 351pOther dairy products 520 427 404 439 444 497Other dairy products 520 427 404 439 444 497Total 2 683 2 089 2 345 2 292 2 208 2 428Total 2 683 2 089 2 345 2 292 2 208 2 428Other livestock and livestock products 2 400 2 217 2 354 2 529 2 697 2 776Other livestock and livestock products 2 400 2 217 2 354 2 529 2 697 2 776

Total livestock exports 14 714 12 903 14 496 14 735 14 819 15 076pTotal farm exports 31 075 27 793 31 809 36 324 37 002 35 811Total farm exports 31 075 27 793 31 809 36 324 37 002 35 811

Forest productsSawnwood 125 125 115 88 87 99Forest productsSawnwood 125 125 115 88 87 99W d b d lWood‐based panels 101 97 98 83 56 74p 101 97 98 83 56 74Paper and paperboard 606 649 747 717 696 712Paper and paperboard 606 649 747 717 696 712Woodchips 997 856 884 729 670 719Woodchips 997 856 884 729 670 719Other l 514 543 629 611 596 634Other l 514 543 629 611 596 634T t l f t d t 2 343 2 270 2 474 2 229 2 106 2 238Total forest products 2 343 2 270 2 474 2 229 2 106 2 238

Fisheries productsTuna 177 118 131 163 168 167Fisheries productsTuna 177 118 131 163 168 167Salmonids 47 30 54 42 27 37Salmonids 47 30 54 42 27 37O h fi hOther fish 109 110 101 85 83 85Prawns m

Frozen 81 60 77 65 51 54Prawns m

Frozen 81 60 77 65 51 54Rock lobster

Fresh chilled frozen or cooked 462 399 368 387 382 388Rock lobster

Fresh, chilled, frozen or cooked 462 399 368 387 382 388Ab lAbalone

Live, fresh or chilled 88 100 88 81 87 90Live, fresh or chilledFrozen or cooked 50 53 59 57 58 58Frozen or cooked 50 53 59 57 58 58Prepared or preserved 70 63 65 59 50 64Prepared or preserved 70 63 65 59 50 64

Scallops 33 30 15 15 12 14Scallops n 33 30 15 15 12 14P l 366 244 241 207 204 203Pearls 366 244 241 207 204 203Other fisheries products 44 39 48 65 59 45pTotal fisheries products 1 529 1 246 1 248 1 227 1 181 1 203Total fisheries products 1 529 1 246 1 248 1 227 1 181 1 203

T t l l t 34 946 31 309 35 531 39 780 40 289 39 252Total rural exports o 34 946 31 309 35 531 39 780 40 289 39 252a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Field peas and cowpeas. d Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. e Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. f ABARES forecast. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products.i Excludes breeding stock. j Includes breeding stock. k On a balance of payments basis. ABS recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas. l Includes miscellaneous products such as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, oils and other wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. m Other prawn products included in other fisheries products. n Includes crumbed scallops. o Derived from farm, forest and fisheries products.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Canberra

a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Field peas and cowpeas. d Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. e Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. f ABARES forecast. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products.i Excludes breeding stock. j Includes breeding stock. k On a balance of payments basis. ABS recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas. l Includes miscellaneous products such as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, oils and other wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. m Other prawn products included in other fisheries products. n Includes crumbed scallops. o Derived from farm, forest and fisheries products.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Canberra
















Forest exports

TABLE 18 Volume of forest products exports Australia

STATISTICSSTATISTICS

1818 Volume of forestry product exports Australia18VolumeofforestryproductexportsAustraliaunit 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12unit 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12

QuantityQuantityRoundwood ’000 m3 1 171 1 045 986 1 377 1 638 1 806Roundwood 000 mSawnwood a

Softwood roughsawn ’000 m3 317 258 283 322 265 198Sawnwood a

Softwood roughsawn ’000 m3 317 258 283 322 265 198S ft d d d 3 49 23 18 13 13 13Softwood dressed ’000 m3 49 23 18 13 13 13Hardwood roughsawn ’000 m3 36 40 40 37 40 27Hardwood roughsawn 000 m 36 40 40 37 40 27Hardwood dressed ’000 m3 13 16 13 16 29 14Hardwood dressed ’000 m3 13 16 13 16 29 14Total ’000 3 416 338 355 387 348 252Total ’000 m3 416 338 355 387 348 252

R il l 3 11 11 9 9 8 8Railway sleepers ’000 m3 11 11 9 9 8 8y p 000 mWood‐based panels

Veneers ’000 m3 4 35 86 90 119 106Wood based panels

Veneers ’000 m3 4 35 86 90 119 106Plywood ’000 3 13 15 53 24 7 18Plywood ’000 m3 13 15 53 24 7 18

l b d 3Particleboard ’000 m3 18 6 17 9 5 4000 mHardboard b ’000 m3 4 0 2 1 2 2Hardboard b 000 m 4 0 2 1 2 2Medium density fibreboard ’000 m3 260 204 181 130 115 79Medium density fibreboard ’000 m3 260 204 181 130 115 79S ftb d d th fib b d 3 10 14 8 2 5 5Softboard and other fibreboards ’000 m3 10 14 8 2 5 5Total ’000 m3 309 274 345 256 253 214Total 000 m

Paper and paperboardPaper and paperboardN i kNewsprint kt 0 5 2 6 19 30pPrinting and writing kt 132 119 112 146 84 132Printing and writing kt 132 119 112 146 84 132Household and sanitary kt 32 37 38 31 39 26Household and sanitary kt 32 37 38 31 39 26Packaging and industrial kt 640 630 617 708 887 933Packaging and industrial kt 640 630 617 708 887 933Total kt 805 790 769 890 1 029 1 121

Recovered paper kt 1 060 1 286 1 216 1 444 1 323 1 403Recovered paper kt 1 060 1 286 1 216 1 444 1 323 1 403Pulp kt 16 21 22 18 31 1Pulp kt 16 21 22 18 31 1W d hi dWoodchips cd kt 5 952 6 166 5 255 4 818 5 064 4 150p

a Excludes railway sleepers. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Includes particles. d Bone dry tonnes. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Includes particles. d Bone dry tonnes. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Includes particles. d Bone dry tonnes. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Includes particles. d Bone dry tonnes. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Includes particles. d Bone dry tonnes. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia


Forest exports

TABLE 19 Value of forest products exports (fob) Australia


19 l f f d (f b)19Valueofforestryproductsexports(fob)Australia19Valueofforestryproductsexports(fob)Australia2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–122006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mValueValueRoundwood 117 105 101 138 198 175RoundwoodSawnwood

Softwood roughsawn 81 63 70 76 67 55Sawnwood

Softwood roughsawn 81 63 70 76 67 55S ft d d d 18 11 9 7 5 3Softwoods dressed 18 11 9 7 5 3Hardwood roughsawn 35 38 38 33 35 24Hardwood roughsawn 35 38 38 33 35 24Hardwood dressed 11 8 8 9 8 6Hardwood dressed 11 8 8 9 8 6Total 145 120 125 125 115 88Total 145 120 125 125 115 88il lRailway sleepers 5 3 4 2 3 3y p

Miscellaneous forest products a 63 56 51 59 65 59Miscellaneous forest products a 63 56 51 59 65 59Wood‐based panels

Veneers 6 19 36 44 52 51Wood‐based panels

Veneers 6 19 36 44 52 51Plywood 8 9 4 3 2 2yParticleboard 6 4 7 3 2 1Particleboard 6 4 7 3 2 1Hardboard b 3 0 1 1 2 2Hardboard b 3 0 1 1 2 2M di d it fib b d 97 76 52 45 39 26Medium density fibreboard c 97 76 52 45 39 26ySoftboard and other fibreboards 6 2 1 1 1 1Softboard and other fibreboards 6 2 1 1 1 1Total 126 109 101 97 98 83Total 126 109 101 97 98 83

Paper and paperboardN i

Paper and paperboardNewsprint 0 3 2 6 13 15pPrinting and writing 149 133 128 143 88 120Printing and writing 149 133 128 143 88 120Household and sanitary 102 106 111 97 94 64Household and sanitary 102 106 111 97 94 64Packaging and industrial 400 395 364 404 552 518Packaging and industrial 400 395 364 404 552 518Total 650 635 606 649 747 717

Paper manufactures 112 103 106 102 112 134Paper manufactures 112 103 106 102 112 134Recovered paper 175 252 235 228 240 240Recovered paper 175 252 235 228 240 240P l 12 15 18 13 11 1Pulp 12 15 18 13 11 1Woodchips 950 1 072 997 856 884 729WoodchipsTotal 2 355 2 471 2 343 2 270 2 474 2 229Total 2 355 2 471 2 343 2 270 2 474 2 229a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Some categories of medium density fibreboard are confidential.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia

a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Some categories of medium density fibreboard are confidential.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia






Forest imports

TABLE 20 Volume of forest products imports Australia


20 l f f d20VolumeofforestryproductimportsAustralia20VolumeofforestryproductimportsAustraliaunit 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12unit 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12

Quantityd d 3

QuantityRoundwood ’000 m3 5.0 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 1.1000 mSawnwood aSawnwood a

Softwood roughsawn ’000 m3 289 2 340 2 255 6 292 6 290 1 239 4Softwood roughsawn ’000 m3 289.2 340.2 255.6 292.6 290.1 239.4Softwood dressed ’ 3 193 9 321 2 278 8 367 3 468 2 469 7Softwood dressed ’000 m3 193.9 321.2 278.8 367.3 468.2 469.7Hardwood roughsawn ’000 m3 67.4 61.5 52.2 44.1 43.8 46.6g 000 mHardwood dressed ’000 m3 60.1 60.9 41.7 44.1 44.2 35.5Hardwood dressed 000 m 60.1 60.9 41.7 44.1 44.2 35.5Total ’000 m3 610 7 783 9 628 4 748 1 846 3 791 1Total ’000 m3 610.7 783.9 628.4 748.1 846.3 791.1

Wood‐based panelsVeneers ’000 m3 29 0 31 5 21 4 15 4 17 4 14 7

Wood based panelsVeneers ’000 m3 29.0 31.5 21.4 15.4 17.4 14.7Plywood ’000 3 244 0 236 6 199 1 227 7 277 6 292 8Plywood ’000 m3 244.0 236.6 199.1 227.7 277.6 292.8

l b d 3Particleboard ’000 m3 77.5 99.6 68.7 64.2 71.6 67.8000 mHardboard ’000 m3 38.4 32.1 23.5 33.0 48.5 69.1Hardboard 000 m 38.4 32.1 23.5 33.0 48.5 69.1Medium density fibreboard ’000 m3 26 5 68 8 88 3 69 9 58 0 95 2Medium density fibreboard ’000 m3 26.5 68.8 88.3 69.9 58.0 95.2S ftb d d th fib b d ’ 3 14 2 14 3 10 6 6 2 6 5 7 1Softboard and other fibreboards ’000 m3 14.2 14.3 10.6 6.2 6.5 7.1Total ’000 m3 429.5 482.8 411.7 416.4 479.6 546.6Total 000 m

Paper and paperboardN i k

Paper and paperboardNewsprint kt 262.5 227.6 197.6 190.6 221.5 121.1pPrinting and writing kt 1 173.5 1 235.3 1 122.1 1 167.4 1 237.0 1 173.9Printing and writing kt 1 173.5 1 235.3 1 122.1 1 167.4 1 237.0 1 173.9Household and sanitary kt 101 8 81 1 82 0 101 1 113 8 117 7Household and sanitary kt 101.8 81.1 82.0 101.1 113.8 117.7Packaging and industrial kt 258 4 303 1 254 0 285 3 313 8 333 1Packaging and industrial kt 258.4 303.1 254.0 285.3 313.8 333.1Total kt 1 796.3 1 847.1 1 655.7 1 744.4 1 886.1 1 745.8

Recovered paper kt 9 6 10 2 3 0 3 4 2 0 2 6Recovered paper kt 9.6 10.2 3.0 3.4 2.0 2.6P l k 359 0 388 7 344 7 265 0 233 2 256 1Pulp kt 359.0 388.7 344.7 265.0 233.2 256.1pWoodchips kt 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.2Woodchips kt 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.2

a Excludes railway sleepers. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia


Forest imports

TABLE 21 Value of forest products imports Australia

STATISTICSTATISTIC

21 l f f d21ValueofforestryproductsimportsAustralia21ValueofforestryproductsimportsAustralia2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–122006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mValueValueRoundwood 1 1 1 0 1 1Roundwood 0Sawnwood

Softwood roughsawn 148 186 134 140 135 105Sawnwood

Softwood roughsawn 148 186 134 140 135 105S ft d d d 143 191 168 200 248 248Softwood dressed 143 191 168 200 248 248Hardwood roughsawn 67 59 51 41 41 45Hardwood roughsawn 67 59 51 41 41 45Hardwood dressed 60 56 53 48 49 50Hardwood dressed 60 56 53 48 49 50Total 418 492 405 429 473 448Total 418 492 405 429 473 448

Miscellaneous forest products a 567 583 651 603 688 741Miscellaneous forest products a 567 583 651 603 688 741Wood‐based panels

V 32 33 28 22 21 21Wood‐based panels

Veneers 32 33 28 22 21 21Plywood 168 153 145 138 170 183Plywood 168 153 145 138 170 183Particleboard 26 34 27 20 21 26Particleboard 26 34 27 20 21 26Hardboard 30 28 26 30 40 54Hardboard 30 28 26 30 40 54M di d i fib b dMedium density fibreboard 14 33 41 37 34 36ySoftboard and other fibreboards 7 3 4 3 3 3Softboard and other fibreboards 7 3 4 3 3 3Total 276 284 271 250 289 323Total 276 284 271 250 289 323

Paper and paperboardNewsprint 224 185 173 158 176 91p p pNewsprint 224 185 173 158 176 91Printing and writing 1 453 1 456 1 468 1 355 1 347 1 217Printing and writing 1 453 1 456 1 468 1 355 1 347 1 217H h ld d it 177 137 154 164 185 187Household and sanitary 177 137 154 164 185 187yPackaging and industrial 416 470 481 499 515 543Packaging and industrial 416 470 481 499 515 543Total 2 270 2 248 2 276 2 175 2 223 2 037Total 2 270 2 248 2 276 2 175 2 223 2 037

Paper manufactures b 470 513 590 563 557 486Paper manufactures b 470 513 590 563 557 486dRecovered paper 2 2 1 1 0 1p p

Pulp 265 285 263 178 180 164Pulp 265 285 263 178 180 164Woodchips 1 2 2 1 2 2Woodchips 1 2 2 1 2 2T t l 4 271 4 412 4 459 4 200 4 412 4 202Total 4 271 4 412 4 459 4 200 4 412 4 202

a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Includes other paper articles that have had some further processing. 0 used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.



a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Includes other paper articles that have had some further processing. 0 used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia

a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Includes other paper articles that have had some further processing. 0 used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of AustralasiaSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of AustralasiaSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia


Fisheries exports

TABLE 22 Volume of fisheries products exports Australia

STATISTICS

22 Volume of fisheries products exports Australia22Volumeoffisheriesproductsexports‐Australia2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 122006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12

kt kt kt kt kt ktEdible aEdible aFish

LiFish

Live na na na na na naTuna 11.6 12.6 11.5 9.5 7.8 8.9Tuna 11.6 12.6 11.5 9.5 7.8 8.9Salmonids 1.9 3.0 6.6 4.0 6.4 5.8Salmonids 1.9 3.0 6.6 4.0 6.4 5.8Other fish 9 4 6 7 7 5 7 1 7 7 6 5Other fish 9.4 6.7 7.5 7.1 7.7 6.5

Total fish b 22.9 22.3 25.6 20.7 21.9 21.1

Crustaceans and molluscsR kl b t 10 3 9 5 9 6 7 7 7 0 6 9

Crustaceans and molluscsRocklobster 10.3 9.5 9.6 7.7 7.0 6.9Prawns 6.4 4.9 4.8 4.7 6.4 5.4Prawns 6.4 4.9 4.8 4.7 6.4 5.4Crabs 1 4 1 4 1 3 1 1 1 0 0 8Crabs 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8Abalone 3 9 3 6 3 3 3 6 3 4 3 1Abalone 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.1S llScallops 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.4pOther 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 2.9Other 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 2.9

Total 25 1 21 6 21 2 19 2 19 6 19 6Total 25.1 21.6 21.2 19.2 19.6 19.6

Total edible b 48.0 43.9 46.8 39.9 41.5 39.5Total edible b 48.0 43.9 46.8 39.9 41.5 39.5a Includes prepared and preserved. b Excludes live tonnage. na Not available.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes prepared and preserved. b Excludes live tonnage. na Not available.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes prepared and preserved. b Excludes live tonnage. na Not available.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes prepared and preserved. b Excludes live tonnage. na Not available.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes prepared and preserved. b Excludes live tonnage. na Not available.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Fisheries exports

TABLE 23 Value of fisheries products exports (fob) Australia


2323 Value of fisheries products exports (fob) ‐ Australia23Valueoffisheriesproductsexports(fob)‐Australia2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–122006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mEdiblEdible aFish

Live 40 8 42 8 46 5 40 4 33 4 32 0Fish

Live 40.8 42.8 46.5 40.4 33.4 32.0Tuna 162 2 206 2 176 8 118 5 131 4 162 7Tuna 162.2 206.2 176.8 118.5 131.4 162.7Salmonids 14.3 21.9 47.2 29.6 54.4 41.8Other fish 62.7 53.0 62.6 69.2 67.6 52.9Other fish 62.7 53.0 62.6 69.2 67.6 52.9

Total fish b 280 0 323 9 333 1 257 8 286 8 289 4Total fish b 280.0 323.9 333.1 257.8 286.8 289.4

Crustaceans and molluscsRocklobster 463 4 400 7 461 6 399 7 369 3 386 7

Crustaceans and molluscsRocklobster 463.4 400.7 461.6 399.7 369.3 386.7P 93 6 68 6 82 2 61 5 77 1 66 7Prawns 93.6 68.6 82.2 61.5 77.1 66.7Crabs 17.5 15.7 16.4 13.8 13.4 11.0Crabs 17.5 15.7 16.4 13.8 13.4 11.0Abalone 246.0 217.2 208.2 216.4 212.0 197.3Abalone 246.0 217.2 208.2 216.4 212.0 197.3Scallops 35 4 27 8 33 3 29 5 15 4 15 3Scallops 35.4 27.8 33.3 29.5 15.4 15.3Oth 21 7 10 6 9 7 8 5 16 3 34 4Other 21.7 10.6 9.7 8.5 16.3 34.4

Total crustaceans and molluscs 877.5 740.6 811.4 729.3 703.6 711.3Total crustaceans and molluscs 877.5 740.6 811.4 729.3 703.6 711.3

Total edible b 1 157 5 1 064 5 1 144 5 987 1 990 3 1 000 7Total edible b 1 157.5 1 064.5 1 144.5 987.1 990.3 1 000.7

Non‐edibleMarine fats and oils 11 6 5 5 5 0 4 8 5 4 7 3

Non‐edibleMarine fats and oils 11.6 5.5 5.0 4.8 5.4 7.3

h lFish meal 4.7 1.0 1.3 2.1 1.6 0.4Pearls c 313.7 264.0 366.4 243.9 241.3 206.6Pearls c 313.7 264.0 366.4 243.9 241.3 206.6Ornamental fish 1 5 1 9 3 4 2 7 2 3 2 3Ornamental fish 1.5 1.9 3.4 2.7 2.3 2.3Oth dibl 4 5 3 9 7 8 5 5 7 3 9 4Other non‐edible 4.5 3.9 7.8 5.5 7.3 9.4

Total non‐edible 336.1 276.3 384.0 259.0 257.9 226.1Total non edible 336.1 276.3 384.0 259.0 257.9 226.1

T t l fi h i d t bTotal fisheries products b 1 493.6 1 340.8 1 528.5 1 246.1 1 248.2 1 226.8pa Includes prepared and preserved. b Includes live value. c Includes items temporarily exported and re‐imported.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes prepared and preserved. b Includes live value. c Includes items temporarily exported and re‐imported.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes prepared and preserved. b Includes live value. c Includes items temporarily exported and re‐imported.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes prepared and preserved. b Includes live value. c Includes items temporarily exported and re‐imported.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes prepared and preserved. b Includes live value. c Includes items temporarily exported and re‐imported.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Fisheries imports

TABLE 24 Volume of fisheries products imports Australia

STATISTICS

24 Volume of fisheries products imports Australia24VolumeoffisheriesproductsimportsAustralia2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 122006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12

kt kt kt kt kt ktEdible aEdible aFish

Li fi hFish

Live fish na na na na na naTuna 34.5 38.8 38.0 39.9 45.6 40.8Tuna 34.5 38.8 38.0 39.9 45.6 40.8Salmonids 13 4 10 2 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 8Salmonids 13.4 10.2 10.9 9.8 9.9 9.8Hake 7 9 6 8 5 7 5 4 6 7 5 3Hake 7.9 6.8 5.7 5.4 6.7 5.3H iHerrings 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9gShark 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5Shark 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5Other fish 76 4 79 6 77 4 83 6 83 4 86 8Other fish 76.4 79.6 77.4 83.6 83.4 86.8T t l fi h b 133 4 136 8 133 4 140 2 147 1 144 1Total fish b 133.4 136.8 133.4 140.2 147.1 144.1

Crustaceans and molluscsPrawns 33 9 29 8 26 7 34 5 32 6 37 5

Crustaceans and molluscsPrawns 33.9 29.8 26.7 34.5 32.6 37.5bLobster 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9

Crabs 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5Crabs 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5Scallops 2 7 2 5 2 2 2 8 2 6 3 0Scallops 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.8 2.6 3.0Squid 15 3 15 6 16 8 16 0 15 2 17 0Squid 15.3 15.6 16.8 16.0 15.2 17.0Other 11.3 11.6 12.7 12.0 12.1 10.0Total 65.0 61.4 59.9 67.2 64.7 69.8Total 65.0 61.4 59.9 67.2 64.7 69.8

Total edible abc 198.4 198.3 193.3 207.4 211.8 214.3Total edible abc 198.4 198.3 193.3 207.4 211.8 214.3a Includes prepared and preserved. b Excludes live tonnage. c Includes other fisheries products not classified to fish or crustaceans and molluscs. na not available. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

a Includes prepared and preserved. b Excludes live tonnage. c Includes other fisheries products not classified to fish or crustaceans and molluscs. na not available. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics





Fisheries imports

TABLE 25 Value of fisheries products imports Australia

STATISTICS

25 Value of fisheries products imports Australia25ValueoffisheriesproductsimportsAustralia2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 122006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12

$m $m $m $m $m $m$ $ $ $ $ $Edible aFishEdible aFish

Li fi h 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Live fish 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Tuna 141.7 174.1 223.3 169.3 200.8 205.5Tuna 141.7 174.1 223.3 169.3 200.8 205.5Salmonids 102.4 78.8 99.9 85.7 84.1 87.5Salmonids 102.4 78.8 99.9 85.7 84.1 87.5Hake 37 7 32 0 31 0 26 1 27 2 20 9Hake 37.7 32.0 31.0 26.1 27.2 20.9H iHerrings 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2gShark 4.3 4.1 4.5 5.6 4.4 4.0Shark 4.3 4.1 4.5 5.6 4.4 4.0Other fish 407 5 417 8 458 0 458 2 446 8 466 4Other fish 407.5 417.8 458.0 458.2 446.8 466.4

T t l fi h b 698 1 711 3 821 1 749 4 767 7 788 6Total fish b 698.1 711.3 821.1 749.4 767.7 788.6

Crustaceans and molluscsPrawns 308 0 250 2 270 7 298 7 291 0 350 9

Crustaceans and molluscsPrawns 308.0 250.2 270.7 298.7 291.0 350.9L bLobster 13.3 14.2 9.8 11.8 15.0 16.0Crabs 8.8 10.3 11.3 12.4 13.3 15.5Crabs 8.8 10.3 11.3 12.4 13.3 15.5Scallops 29 8 28 1 29 9 33 5 34 5 43 6Scallops 29.8 28.1 29.9 33.5 34.5 43.6Squid 55 9 45 6 54 3 62 0 74 3 90 4Squid 55.9 45.6 54.3 62.0 74.3 90.4Other 67.5 68.8 82.1 75.8 75.5 68.7

Total 483.3 417.2 458.1 494.2 503.5 585.1Total 483.3 417.2 458.1 494.2 503.5 585.1Total edible a 1 181 6 1 128 7 1 279 4 1 243 9 1 271 3 1 373 8Total edible a 1 181.6 1 128.7 1 279.4 1 243.9 1 271.3 1 373.8

Non‐ediblePearls c 181 6 166 4 320 6 170 8 166 9 138 2Non ediblePearls c 181.6 166.4 320.6 170.8 166.9 138.2Fi h l 40 1 41 2 41 9 51 9 46 7 34 2Fish meal 40.1 41.2 41.9 51.9 46.7 34.2Ornamental fish 5.3 5.4 5.8 4.6 3.9 3.7Ornamental fish 5.3 5.4 5.8 4.6 3.9 3.7Marine fats and oils 24 0 27 1 33 9 26 8 31 0 39 5Marine fats and oils 24.0 27.1 33.9 26.8 31.0 39.5Other marine products 32 0 25 6 24 9 14 9 9 9 17 2Other marine products 32.0 25.6 24.9 14.9 9.9 17.2

Total non‐edible 283.0 265.7 427.1 269.0 258.4 232.8Total non‐edible 283.0 265.7 427.1 269.0 258.4 232.8

Total fisheries products ad 1 467.4 1 397.9 1 709.8 1 514.7 1 531.0 1 608.0Total fisheries products ad 1 467.4 1 397.9 1 709.8 1 514.7 1 531.0 1 608.0a Includes prepared and preserved. b Includes live value. cMostly re‐imports. d Includes other fisheries products not classified to fish or crustaceans and molluscs. 0.0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

a Includes prepared and preserved. b Includes live value. cMostly re‐imports. d Includes other fisheries products not classified to fish or crustaceans and molluscs. 0.0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics







Agricultural exports

TABLE 26 Agricultural exports to Japan (fob) Australia aSTATISTICS

26 A l l (f b)26AgriculturalexportstoJapan(fob)Australiaa2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12

26AgriculturalexportstoJapan(fob)Australiaa2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12

$ $ $ $ $ $$m $m $m $m $m $mFFarm

d l dGrains and oilseedsWinter crops

barley b 218 234 335 284 260 316barley bcanola 86 70 65 109 41 47lupins 7 4 9 9 9 9lupinswheat c 276 355 291 299 408 395wheat c 276 355 291 299 408 395

Summer cropscottonseed 25 8 16 31 24 31

Summer cropscottonseed 25 8 16 31 24 31grain sorghum 1 25 319 70 105 219grain sorghum 1 25 319 70 105 219other grains d 3 2 3 3 3 10other grains d 3 2 3 3 3 10other oilseeds e 1 6 4 1 1 1other oilseeds e 1 6 4 1 1 1

Total grains and oilseeds 618 703 1 043 805 852 1 028Total grains and oilseeds 618 703 1 043 805 852 1 028

I d t i lIndustrial cropsRaw cotton g 59 47 39 31 48 63Sugar 238 129 192 190 194 211gWine 49 49 54 43 44 45Total industrial crops 346 225 285 264 286 319pHorticultureFruit 82 81 70 61 70 59HorticultureFruit 82 81 70 61 70 59Tree nuts 19 13 15 17 16 20Tree nuts 19 13 15 17 16 20Vegetables 52 42 49 34 47 43Vegetables 52 42 49 34 47 43Nursery 7 5 6 4 4 3Nursery 7 5 6 4 4 3Other horticulture h 3 4 4 5 7 6Other horticulture h 3 4 4 5 7 6Total horticulture 162 146 144 121 143 131Total horticulture 162 146 144 121 143 131Other crops and crop products 42 44 61 47 54 47Other crops and crop products 42 44 61 47 54 47

Total crops 1 168 1 118 1 533 1 237 1 335 1 524p 1 168 1 118 1 533 1 237 1 335 1 524

Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 2 078 1 794 2 066 1 682 1 667 1 549Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 2 078 1 794 2 066 1 682 1 667 1 549Live cattle i 18 18 14 15 16 20Live cattle i 18 18 14 15 16 20Lamb 63 53 67 52 60 63Lamb 63 53 67 52 60 63Mutton 31 28 39 24 26 24Mutton 31 28 39 24 26 24Oth t d li i l j 10 5 6 2 2 1Other meat and live animals j 10 5 6 2 2 1

l d l lTotal meat and live animals 2 200 1 899 2 192 1 776 1 771 1 657

Wool Greasy 6 0 2 4 9 12Wool Greasy 6 0 2 4 9 12Semi‐processed 33 17 12 12 23 26Semi‐processed 33 17 12 12 23 26Skins 3 5 3 1 1 2Skins 3 5 3 1 1 2Total 42 22 17 17 33 39Total 42 22 17 17 33 39

Dairy productsB tt 8 17 11 2 6 9Dairy productsButter 8 17 11 2 6 9Ch 338 427 399 358 356 423Cheese 338 427 399 358 356 423Casein 32 38 44 26 22 21Skim milk powder 11 10 22 3 2 2Whole milk powder 1 0 0 0 0 1pOther dairy products 63 53 46 44 37 44y pTotal dairy product exports 453 545 521 433 423 500y p pOther livestock exports 481 394 438 323 339 303Other livestock exports 481 394 438 323 339 303Total livestock exports 3 176 2 859 3 168 2 549 2 566 2 499Total livestock exports 3 176 2 859 3 168 2 549 2 566 2 499Total agricultural exports 4 344 3 977 4 701 3 786 3 901 4 023Total agricultural exports 4 344 3 977 4 701 3 786 3 901 4 023

a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. d Includes grains not separately listed. e Includes oilseeds not separately listed. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. i Excludes breeding stock. j Includes other meat and live animals not listed separately.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Export Statistics, Canberra










TABLE 27 Agricultural exports to the United States (fob) Australia aSTATISTICS

27 A l l h d S (f b)27AgriculturalexportstotheUnitedStates(fob)Australiaa2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12

27AgriculturalexportstotheUnitedStates(fob)Australiaa2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12

$ $ $ $ $ $$m $m $m $m $m $mFFarm


barley b 1 0 0 0 0 0barley bchickpeas 0 1 2 1 2 2p

Summer cropscottonseed 0 0 0 10 0 20

pcottonseed 0 0 0 10 0 20other grains c 1 1 1 1 0 0gother oilseeds d 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total grains and oilseeds 3 2 3 12 3 22Total grains and oilseeds 3 2 3 12 3 22

Industrial cropsRaw cotton e 0 0 0 0 0 0Industrial cropsRaw cotton e 0 0 0 0 0 0Sugar 78 43 66 58 85 120Sugar 78 43 66 58 85 120Wine 956 745 741 608 478 452Wine 956 745 741 608 478 452Total industrial crops 1 034 788 808 666 562 572Total industrial crops 1 034 788 808 666 562 572

i lHorticultureFruit 73 65 60 67 33 33Tree nuts 15 15 20 22 12 15Vegetables 7 7 10 8 7 8gNursery 5 4 4 3 2 2NurseryOther horticulture g 18 19 18 14 16 15Other horticulture g 18 19 18 14 16 15Total horticulture 118 110 111 114 70 72Total horticulture 118 110 111 114 70 72Other crops and crop products 63 93 174 167 168 142Other crops and crop products 63 93 174 167 168 142Total crops 1 218 993 1 095 958 804 808Total crops 1 218 993 1 095 958 804 808

d li i lMeat and live animalsBeef and veal 1 221 925 1 225 817 704 896Lamb 308 313 354 303 335 305Mutton 47 45 35 32 38 21MuttonOther meat and live animals h 0 0 0 0 0 0Other meat and live animals hTotal meat and live animals 1 576 1 283 1 615 1 152 1 077 1 222Total meat and live animals 1 576 1 283 1 615 1 152 1 077 1 222

WoolGreasy 16 9 7 9 11 8Wool Greasy 16 9 7 9 11 8Semi‐processed 1 2 1 3 3 3Semi‐processed 1 2 1 3 3 3Skins 1 0 0 0 0 0Skins 1 0 0 0 0 0Total 19 11 8 12 14 11Total 19 11 8 12 14 11

dDairy productsButter 13 10 19 10 3 7Cheese 53 37 60 20 12 3Casein 32 42 29 23 13 7Skim milk powder 5 7 0 0 0 0Skim milk powder 5 0 0 0 0Whole milk powder 13 9 8 9 4 4Whole milk powder 13 9 8 9 4 4Other dairy products 7 10 10 13 17 15Other dairy products 7 10 10 13 17 15Total dairy product exports 123 115 126 74 50 35Total dairy product exports 123 115 126 74 50 35

Other livestock exports 108 105 125 116 125 115Other livestock exports 108 105 125 116 125 115Total livestock exports 1 825 1 514 1 874 1 354 1 266 1 383Total livestock exports 1 825 1 514 1 874 1 354 1 266 1 383Total agricultural exports 3 043 2 507 2 970 2 312 2 070 2 191Total agricultural exports 3 043 2 507 2 970 2 312 2 070 2 191

a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Includes grains not separately listed. d Includes oilseeds not separately listed. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. g Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. h Includes meat and live animals not listed separately.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Export Statistics, Canberra









TABLE 28 Agricultural exports to China (fob) Australia a

STATISTICS

28 A l l Ch (f b)28AgriculturalexportstoChina(fob)Australiaa2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12

28AgriculturalexportstoChina(fob)Australiaa2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12

$ $ $ $ $ $$m $m $m $m $m $mFFarm


barley b 220 295 235 280 311 454barley bcanola 1 0 21 0 0 0wheat c 45 1 71 189 144 457wheat c

Summer cropsgrain sorghum 0 0 0 14 14 4

Summer cropsgrain sorghum 0 0 0 14 14 4other grains d 0 0 1 1 0 1other grains d 0 0 1 1 0 1other oilseeds e 1 1 2 1 45 116other oilseeds e 1 1 2 1 45 116

Total grains and oilseeds 267 296 330 485 514 1 032Total grains and oilseeds 267 296 330 485 514 1 032

Industrial cropsR 281 164 165 274 551 1 812Industrial cropsRaw cotton g 281 164 165 274 551 1 812Sugar 29 15 3 4 31 21Wine 49 62 94 140 181 209Total industrial crops 358 241 262 418 763 2 042pHorticultureFruit 4 8 6 6 8 10HorticultureFruit 4 8 6 6 8 10Tree nuts 13 12 14 8 6 11Tree nuts 13 12 14 8 6 11Vegetables 5 2 1 6 4 6Vegetables 5 2 1 6 4 6Nursery 0 0 0 0 1 1Nursery 0 0 0 0 1 1Other horticulture h 2 2 3 4 3 4Other horticulture h 2 2 3 4 3 4Total horticulture 24 24 23 25 23 32Total horticulture 24 24 23 25 23 32Other crops and crop products 16 25 7 7 8 22Other crops and crop products 16 25 7 7 8 22Total cropsTotal crops 665 586 621 934 1 308 3 128

Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 8 10 20 17 28 40Meat and live animalsBeef and veal 8 10 20 17 28 40Live cattle i 8 0 0 5 4 0Live cattle i 8 0 0 5 4 0Lamb 21 37 34 34 63 73Lamb 21 37 34 34 63 73Mutton 4 5 9 13 12 14Mutton 4 5 9 13 12 14Other meat and live animals j 0 0 0 0 0 0Other meat and live animals j 0 0 0 0 0 0Total meat and live animals 42 52 64 69 107 127Total meat and live animals 42 52 64 69 107 127

W lWool Greasy 1689 1455 1328 1460 1864 1925Semi‐processed 49 28 55 62 21 24pSkins 293 265 271 257 351 369

lTotal 2 031 1 748 1 654 1 779 2 235 2 319

Dairy productsButter 3 4 3 5 4 7Dairy productsButter 3 4 3 5 4 7Cheese 12 18 14 23 30 37Cheese 12 18 14 23 30 37Casein 3 4 5 7 1 1Casein 3 4 5 7 1 1Skim milk powder 23 34 39 22 37 50Skim milk powder 23 34 39 22 37 50Whole milk powder 2 21 48 38 52 11Whole milk powder 2 21 48 38 52 11Other dairy products 37 58 54 45 35 58Other dairy products 37 58 54 45 35 58Total dairy product exports 81 139 164 139 159 164Total dairy product exports 81 139 164 139 159 164

Other livestock exports 292 480 520 603 660 747pTotal livestock exports 2 445 2 420 2 401 2 591 3 161 3 357pTotal agricultural exports 3 110 3 006 3 023 3 525 4 469 6 485g pa ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. d Includes grains not separately listed. e Includes oilseeds not separately listed. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. i Excludes breeding stock. j Includes meat and other live animals not listed separately.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Export Statistics, Canberra

a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988–89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. d Includes grains not separately listed. e Includes oilseeds not separately listed. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. i Excludes breeding stock. j Includes meat and other live animals not listed separately.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Export Statistics, Canberra









TABLE 29 Value of Australian forest products trade, by selected countries

STATISTICS

29 Value of Australian forestry products trade by selected countries29ValueofAustralianforestryproductstrade,byselectedcountries2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 122006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mExports

China 270 360 390 394 544 534Exports

China 270 360 390 394 544 534Hong Kong 72 54 51 68 42 39g gJapan 888 965 860 774 745 579Japan 888 965 860 774 745 579Korea Rep of 116 91 103 48 40 40Korea, Rep. of 116 91 103 48 40 40Malaysia 48 57 78 82 106 112Malaysia 48 57 78 82 106 112New Zealand 365 375 324 319 314 306Taiwan 83 88 77 88 79 68Taiwan 83 88 77 88 79 68

I tImportsChina 509 547 611 624 680 797China 509 547 611 624 680 797Finland 248 272 274 171 143 120Finland 248 272 274 171 143 120Germany 190 178 167 178 183 147Germany 190 178 167 178 183 147dIndonesia 404 336 374 351 332 342

Malaysia 199 209 215 217 228 233Malaysia 199 209 215 217 228 233New Zealand 741 790 744 703 715 634New Zealand 741 790 744 703 715 634U it d St t 276 289 320 313 285 297United States 276 289 320 313 285 297

Source: Australian Bureau of StatisticsSource: Australian Bureau of StatisticsSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics



Food exports

TABLE 30 Value of Australian fisheries products trade, by selected countries Australia

STATISTICS

30 Value of Australian fishery products trade by selected countries Australia30ValueofAustralianfisheryproductstrade,byselectedcountriesAustralia2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 122006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12

$m $m $m $m $m $m$ $ $ $ $ $ExportsExports

Edible (excluding live)Chi 9 26 30 43 143 8

Edible (excluding live) China 59 26 30 43 143 58 Hong Kong 447 426 525 491 394 448 Hong Kong 447 426 525 491 394 448Japan 306 328 302 215 226 254 Japan 306 328 302 215 226 254Malaysia 5 8 13 9 13 8 Malaysia 5 8 13 9 13 8N Z l d New Zealand 10 12 9 17 10 10

Singapore 41 40 44 37 41 42 Singapore 41 40 44 37 41 42Taiwan 50 45 54 33 30 18 Taiwan 50 45 54 33 30 18Thailand 8 8 7 9 16 18 Thailand 8 8 7 9 16 18

United States 115 72 64 49 35 22

Non edibleH K

Non‐edible Hong Kong 156 128 201 138 145 97g g Japan 69 53 64 50 43 44 Japan 69 53 64 50 43 44New Zealand 9 2 2 3 3 3 New Zealand 9 2 2 3 3 3United States 34 24 22 15 8 22 United States 34 24 22 15 8 22

Imports aImports aEdible (excluding live)C d 2 3 3

Edible (excluding live) Canada 21 15 13 13 15 14 China 155 132 152 173 186 231 China 155 132 152 173 186 231Denmark 26 19 24 24 19 25 Denmark 26 19 24 24 19 25Indonesia 28 23 31 39 28 36 Indonesia 28 23 31 39 28 36J Japan 9 14 16 16 14 18p

Malaysia 39 55 65 63 71 73 Malaysia 39 55 65 63 71 73New Zealand 192 198 207 212 210 197 New Zealand 192 198 207 212 210 197Norway 20 21 20 27 25 27 Norway 20 21 20 27 25 27

South Africa 33 24 23 30 28 31Taiwan 27 32 33 37 39 39 Taiwan 27 32 33 37 39 39Thailand 279 295 368 322 340 362 Thailand 279 295 368 322 340 362U it d St t 39 29 49 37 40 45 United States 39 29 49 37 40 45

Vietnam 155 142 167 153 162 174 Vietnam 155 142 167 153 162 174

a Country details for non‐edible imports are not available.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Country details for non‐edible imports are not available.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Country details for non‐edible imports are not available.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Country details for non‐edible imports are not available.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Food exports

TABLE 31 Food exports by level of transformation Australia

2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–122006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $m

Mi i ll t f dMinimally transformedLive animals except fish 752 761 924 924 924 787

yLive animals except fish 752 761 924 924 924 787Fish or shellfish 631 646 747 650 667 721Fish or shellfish 631 646 747 650 667 721Horticulture

blHorticultureVegetables 147 137 152 150 166 152gFruit and nuts 451 433 563 472 368 450Fruit and nuts 451 433 563 472 368 450Total 598 571 716 622 534 602Total 598 571 716 622 534 602G i 3 329 4 221 6 383 4 632 6 765 8 793Grains a 3 329 4 221 6 383 4 632 6 765 8 793Oilseeds 167 346 644 657 973 1 555OilseedsFood nec 54 41 49 43 50 52Food nec 54 41 49 43 50 52Substantially and elaborately transformedSubstantially and elaborately transformedM tMeatMeat processing 7 048 6 506 7 411 6 313 6 887 7 068Meat processing 7 048 6 506 7 411 6 313 6 887 7 068Poultry processing 26 32 43 36 38 45Poultry processing 26 32 43 36 38 45Bacon ham and smallgoods 43 33 47 54 57 87Bacon, ham and smallgoods 43 33 47 54 57 87T lTotal 7 117 6 571 7 501 6 403 6 983 7 201Seafood 548 440 417 357 350 281Seafood 548 440 417 357 350 281DairyMilk and cream processing 1 089 1 258 1 354 880 1 107 1 065DairyMilk and cream processing 1 089 1 258 1 354 880 1 107 1 065Ice cream 42 37 31 31 33 27Cheese 824 968 796 715 731 751Cheese 824 968 796 715 731 751Other dairy products 482 499 497 440 451 422Other dairy products 482 499 497 440 451 422T t l 2 438 2 763 2 679 2 066 2 322 2 264Total 2 438 2 763 2 679 2 066 2 322 2 264Fruit and vegetables 574 568 575 523 571 625Fruit and vegetablesOil and fat 169 239 303 289 293 317Oil and fat 169 239 303 289 293 317Flour mill and cereal foodFl ill d t 269 315 419 365 344 313Flour mill and cereal foodFlour mill products 269 315 419 365 344 313pCereal food and baking mix 372 287 390 445 614 880Cereal food and baking mix 372 287 390 445 614 880Total 642 602 809 811 958 1 193Total 642 602 809 811 958 1 193Bakery productsB d k dBakery productsBread, cake and pastry 27 26 25 26 22 22, p yBiscuit 111 118 127 135 134 129Biscuit 111 118 127 135 134 129Total 137 144 152 161 155 150Total 137 144 152 161 155 150Other foodSOther foodSugar a 1 551 1 035 1 374 1 924 1 479 1 600gConfectionery 215 237 269 260 252 240Confectionery 215 237 269 260 252 240Total 2 907 2 366 3 065 3 607 3 091 3 469Total 2 907 2 366 3 065 3 607 3 091 3 469Beverage and maltBeverage and maltSoft drink, cordial and syrup 39 38 45 55 61 63Soft drink, cordial and syrup 39 38 5 55 6 63Beer and malt 273 335 447 406 318 372Beer and malt 273 335 447 406 318 372Wine 2 894 2 700 2 493 2 188 2 009 1 910Wine 2 894 2 700 2 493 2 188 2 009 1 910S i it 89 86 105 101 97 103Spirit 89 86 105 101 97 103pTotal 3 294 3 159 3 091 2 750 2 485 2 447Total 3 294 3 159 3 091 2 750 2 485 2 447Total food and beverageMinimally transformed 5 532 6 585 9 462 7 528 9 913 12 510Total food and beverageMinimally transformed 5 532 6 585 9 462 7 528 9 913 12 510S b i ll f dSubstantially transformed 17 530 16 528 18 243 16 606 16 863 17 613yElaborately transformed 297 324 350 362 346 335Elaborately transformed 297 324 350 362 346 335Total 23 359 23 438 28 056 24 495 27 122 30 458Total 23 359 23 438 28 056 24 495 27 122 30 458

a Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply. nec not elsewhere classified.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply. nec not elsewhere classified.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply. nec not elsewhere classified.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply. nec not elsewhere classified.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Food imports

TABLE 32 Food imports by level of transformation Australia

STATISTIC

32 Australian food imports by level of transformation Australia32AustralianfoodimportsbyleveloftransformationAustralia2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 122006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12

$m $m $m $m $m $m$ $ $ $ $ $Minimally transformedLive animals except fish 1 1 2 1 2 1Minimally transformedLive animals except fish 1 1 2 1 2 1Fi h h llfi h 57 65 67 72 73 67Fish or shellfish 57 65 67 72 73 67HorticultureVegetables 45 53 49 58 76 64Vegetables 45 53 49 58 76 64Fruit and nuts 189 216 225 262 245 290Fruit and nuts 189 216 225 262 245 290T t l 234 269 274 320 322 354Total 234 269 274 320 322 354Grains 2 2 2 3 4 6Grains 2 2 2 3 4 6Oilseeds 78 49 49 36 36 41Oilseeds 78 49 49 36 36 41Food nec 175 188 224 228 304 348Food nec 175 188 224 228 304 348S b t ti ll d l b t l t f dSubstantially and elaborately transformedMeat

y y

Meat processing 446 381 525 497 478 493MeatMeat processing 446 381 525 497 478 493Poultry processing 0 0 0 0 0 0Poultry processing 0 0 0 0 0 0Bacon, ham and smallgoods 42 50 68 82 90 112, gTotal 489 431 593 579 567 606Total 489 431 593 579 567 606Seafood 1 151 1 095 1 249 1 201 1 231 1 348Seafood 1 151 1 095 1 249 1 201 1 231 1 348DairyDairyMilk and cream processing 40 67 69 66 72 75Milk and cream processingIce cream 40 37 39 40 44 45Ice cream 40 37 39 40 44 45Cheese 302 377 365 360 398 408Cheese 302 377 365 360 398 408Oth d i d t 98 176 157 150 180 227Other dairy products 98 176 157 150 180 227y pTotal 480 656 631 615 694 755Total 480 656 631 615 694 755Fruit and vegetables 1 229 1 386 1 556 1 361 1 478 1 742Fruit and vegetables 1 229 1 386 1 556 1 361 1 478 1 742Oil and fat 481 489 578 485 517 516Oil and fat 481 489 578 485 517 516Fl ill d l f dFlour mill and cereal foodFlour mill products 34 66 83 66 48 53Flour mill products 34 66 83 66 48 53Cereal food and baking mix 325 462 576 577 523 504Cereal food and baking mix 325 462 576 577 523 504Total 358 527 659 643 572 557Total 358 527 659 643 572 557

k dBakery productsBread, cake and pastry 163 175 197 191 222 242

y pBread, cake and pastry 163 175 197 191 222 242Biscuit 147 162 179 178 191 206Biscuit 147 162 179 178 191 206T t l 310 337 376 369 413 448Total 310 337 376 369 413 448Other foodSugar 20 22 44 71 125 95Sugar 20 22 44 71 125 95Confectionery 371 438 518 525 547 576Confectionery 371 438 518 525 547 576

d 1 136 1 221 1 430 1 396 1 460 1 583Food nec 1 136 1 221 1 430 1 396 1 460 1 583Total 1 527 1 681 1 992 1 992 2 131 2 255Total 1 527 1 681 1 992 1 992 2 131 2 255Beverage and maltSoft drink cordial and syrup 656 697 791 798 818 898Beverage and maltSoft drink, cordial and syrup 656 697 791 798 818 898

d lBeer and malt 126 161 226 212 196 219Wine 334 454 502 477 490 554Wine 334 454 502 477 490 554Spirit 465 491 530 538 544 571Spirit 465 491 530 538 544 571Total 1 582 1 802 2 050 2 026 2 048 2 243Total 1 582 1 802 2 050 2 026 2 048 2 243

l f d d bTotal food and beverageMinimally transformed 546 573 618 660 741 818

gMinimally transformed 546 573 618 660 741 818Substantially transformed 7 269 8 008 9 254 8 836 9 205 9 990Substantially transformed 7 269 8 008 9 254 8 836 9 205 9 990El b t l t f d 338 396 429 434 445 481Elaborately transformed 338 396 429 434 445 481Total 8 154 8 978 10 301 9 930 10 391 11 288Total 8 154 8 978 10 301 9 930 10 391 11 288

0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million. nec not elsewhere classified.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million. nec not elsewhere classified.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million. nec not elsewhere classified.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million. nec not elsewhere classified.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million. nec not elsewhere classified.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Food trade

TABLE 33 Total food exports, by selected destination Australia

STATISTICS

2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12$m $m $m $m $m $m

Canada 423 402 380 335 332 328China 664 917 1 178 1 426 1 540 2 174Egypt 151 174 315 266 402 387Germany 123 162 153 109 263 262Hong Kong 827 857 1 082 997 886 1 018Indonesia 1 566 1 702 2 652 2 129 2 288 2 272Japan 4 752 4 553 5 517 4 278 4 207 4 448Korea, Rep. of 1 850 1 655 1 873 1 925 1 994 2 338Malaysia 801 799 1 231 853 849 875New Zealand 1 203 1 303 1 406 1 323 1 281 1 366Philippines 240 308 563 318 502 686Saudi Arabia 568 1 144 1 020 566 499 911Singapore 650 712 792 722 739 800Taiwan 595 574 671 613 627 634Thailand 305 393 626 424 539 744United Arab Emirates 284 445 567 528 581 605United Kingdom 1 209 1 136 1 005 784 685 614United States 3 058 2 552 3 054 2 379 2 165 2 285Other 4 091 3 651 3 970 4 522 6 745 7 713Total 23 359 23 438 28 056 24 495 27 122 30 458

33Australiantotalfoodexports,byselecteddestinationAustralia

Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

STATISTICS

34 Australian total food imports by selected source Australia34Australiantotalfoodimports,byselectedsourceAustralia2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 122006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12

$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $mBrazil 120 129 150 110 148 176Brazil 120 129 150 110 148 176Canada 252 220 268 234 219 210Canada 252 220 268 234 219 210China a 536 617 754 708 750 841China aFrance 223 278 281 281 297 332France 223 278 281 281 297 332India 141 156 175 164 167 222India 141 156 175 164 167 222I d i 135 158 202 189 191 190Indonesia 135 158 202 189 191 190Ireland 510 536 559 585 252 89Ireland 5 0 536 559 585 5 89Italy 422 436 494 463 430 469Italy 422 436 494 463 430 469Malaysia 273 354 459 392 455 456Malaysia 273 354 459 392 455 456N th l d 166 182 220 197 200 275Netherlands 166 182 220 197 200 275New Zealand 1 414 1 671 1 684 1 801 1 895 2 047New Zealand 1 414 1 671 1 684 1 801 1 895 2 047Papua New Guinea 38 36 45 44 57 59Papua New Guinea 38 36 45 44 57 59Singapore 123 155 205 194 539 792Singapore 123 155 205 194 539 792

iSpain 192 173 153 186 171 158pThailand 473 547 702 689 759 741Thailand 473 547 702 689 759 741United Kingdom 292 295 314 331 324 347United Kingdom 292 295 314 331 324 347United States 714 803 994 893 959 1 139United States 714 803 994 893 959 1 139Vietnam 278 250 297 280 303 344Other 1 853 1 981 2 346 2 191 2 275 2 401Other 1 853 1 981 2 346 2 191 2 275 2 401Total 8 154 8 978 10 301 9 930 10 391 11 288Total 8 154 8 978 10 301 9 930 10 391 11 288

a Excludes imports from Hong Kong.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Excludes imports from Hong Kong.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Excludes imports from Hong Kong.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Excludes imports from Hong Kong.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Excludes imports from Hong Kong.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

TABLE 34 Total food imports, by selected source country Australia


ABARES reports released since Agricultural commodities (vol. 3 no. 1 March quarter 2013)Following is a selection of ABARES reports released since publication of Agricultural commodities in March 2013. A brief description of the nature of each report is provided. While not comprehensive, the selection provides an overview of the range of interests ABARES covers.

All reports can be downloaded from daff.gov.au/abares/publications.

For more information contact [email protected].

Research reportsAn economic survey of irrigation farms in the Murray–Darling Basin: Industry overview and region profiles, 2010–11

Research report 13.5Publication date: 14 June 2013 Authors: Dale Ashton, Haydn Valle and Mark Oliver

The report An economic survey of irrigation farms in the Murray–Darling Basin: Industry overview and region profiles, 2010–11 presents information on irrigated agricultural production and the financial situation of irrigators in the Murray–Darling Basin in 2010–11 and 2011–12. The report provides economic and physical profiles of irrigators by region and industry, based on a survey of 900 irrigation farms across 10 regions in the Murray–Darling Basin.

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Report extracts


Preliminary long-term forecasts of wood product demand in Australia

Research report 13.6Publication date: 30 May 2013 Authors: Mihir Gupta, Kristen Corrie, Beau Hug and Kevin Burns

ABARES has estimated domestic wood product consumption and trade over the period from 2011–12 to 2049–50 using a set of assumptions defining a business-as-usual outlook scenario. This scenario describes the outlook for the forestry sector, assuming maintenance of existing trends and government policies. The focus in this report is to document the econometric models that provide the best possible estimate for the relationship between demand and factors driving demand for sawnwood, wood-based panels and paper and paperboard as aggregated commodity groups. Two possible scenarios for woodchip exports are also discussed.

Technical reportsAustralian plantation statistics 2013 update

Technical report 13.3Publication date: 30 May 2013 Author: Mijo Gavran

The National Plantation Inventory has been collecting data and reporting on plantations established primarily for timber production in Australia since 1993. Australian plantations statistics update is published every year between the five-yearly comprehensive spatial reports. Annual updates assist strategic forest industry planning and decision-making by presenting information on total plantation area, new planting and ownership.

Other reportsAustralian crop reportPublication date: 12 June 2013

This quarterly report forms a consistent and regular assessment of crop prospects for major field crops, forecasts of area, yield and production and a summary of seasonal conditions on a state-by-state basis.

Report extracts

143


Australian forest and wood products statistics: September and December quarters 2012Publication date: 6 June 2013

Paper presented at the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society (AARES) 2013 Conference.

This issue of the Australian forest and wood products statistics (AFWPS) includes updated data for plantation areas, log harvest volumes, production of wood-based panels and paper and paperboard for 2011–12 and Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) trade data for the September and December quarters of 2012. This overview also presents socio-economic indicators for the forestry sector drawn from the 2011 ABS Census of Population and Housing. These build on and update the indicators presented in the AFWPS March and June quarters 2012, which reported data from the 2006 Census.

Technical reviews for the Commonwealth Fisheries Harvest Strategy Policy: Implementation issuesPublication date: 4 June 2013 Authors: Peter Ward, Nic Marton, Andy Moore, Heather Patterson, Andrew Penney, Phil Sahlqvist, Maggie Skirtun, Mary Stephan, Simon Vieira and James Woodhams

This report was developed for the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation. This technical overview was prepared for consideration by stakeholders and Australian Government agencies as part of the review of the Commonwealth Fisheries Harvest Strategy Policy and Guidelines. It summarises key conclusions and advice on potential improvements to technical aspects of the Commonwealth Harvest Strategy Policy (DAFF 2007) from the reports prepared on specific technical issues, providing a an interface between the technical detail in those reports and discussion of potential improvements to the harvest strategy policy and implementation guidelines.

Australian fisheries surveys report 2012: Financial and economic performance of the Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery, the Commonwealth Trawl Sector and the Gillnet, Hook and Trap SectorPublication date: 31 May 2013 Authors: Daniel George and Robert New

The Australian fisheries surveys report 2012 provides detailed information about the financial and economic performance of key Commonwealth fisheries. The results of this report are used by policymakers, managers, researchers and industry. The report presents results of the 2012 survey, which focused on the Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery and the Commonwealth Trawl and Gillnet Hook and Trap sectors of the Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery. The results comprise survey-based estimates of financial and economic performance for the 2009–10 and 2010–11 financial years, as well as non-survey based estimates of economic performance for the 2011–12 financial year. Quota prices for key species in each fishery as well as demographic data are also presented.

Report extracts

144


Technical reviews for the Commonwealth Fisheries Harvest Strategy Policy: Economic issuesPublication date: 28 May 2013 Authors: Simon Vieira and Sean Pascoe

This report was developed for the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation. It reviews the operationalisation of the harvest strategy policy’s maximum economic yield objective across Commonwealth fisheries. The report provides an outline of key economic definitions and concepts as well as the general experiences and challenges of operationalising MEY in Commonwealth fisheries. It then draws on the literature to list the potential options that are available to improve the way in which Commonwealth fishery management meets the intent of the Commonwealth Fisheries Harvest Strategy Policy.

Technical reviews for the Commonwealth Fisheries Harvest Strategy Policy: Technical overviewPublication date: 28 May 2013 Authors: Andrew Penney, Peter Ward and Simon Vieira

This report was developed for the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation. This technical overview was prepared for consideration by stakeholders and Australian Government agencies as part of the review of the Commonwealth Fisheries Harvest Strategy Policy and Guidelines. It summarises key conclusions and advice on potential improvements to technical aspects of the Commonwealth Harvest Strategy Policy (DAFF 2007) from the reports prepared on specific technical issues, providing an interface between the technical detail in those reports and discussion of potential improvements to the harvest strategy policy and implementation guidelines.

Looking beyond the farm gate: Closer vertical coordination along value chains as a means of improving farm performance

Science and Economic Insights 13.1Publication date: 20 April 2013 Authors: Emily M. Gray, Max Oss-Emer and Alistair Davidson

This report considers how closer vertical coordination in agricultural value chains can affect farm performance, and the implications for industry and government. There is a trend toward more closely specified marketing arrangements between farmers and other businesses in agricultural value chains, such as through the use of supply contracts and alliances. While the main incentive stems from the opportunity to increase profit, consumer demand for greater quality and choice, new technologies, and consumer protection regulation are also important as they are driving increased product differentiation and information needs. This is because closer vertical coordination can reduce the costs of guaranteeing product quality by improving information flows along value chains.

Report extracts

145


Ground cover monitoring for Australia: Sampling strategy and selection of ground cover control sitesPublication date: 8 March 2013

High frequency, spatially explicit ground cover information is required to improve the modelling and monitoring of wind and water erosion, our understanding of climate variability and changing management on agriculture and, in particular, pastures in the rangelands. The sampling strategy report supports the development of a national network of reference sites required to validate remotely sensed ground cover products.

Report extracts

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Executive Director Paul Morris [email protected] (02) 6272 4636

Chief Economist Michael Harris [email protected] (02) 6272 2222

Chief Scientist Kim Ritman [email protected] (02) 6272 4671

Agricultural Commodities and Trade

Assistant Secretary and

Chief Commodity Analyst Jammie Penm [email protected] (02) 6272 2030

Agricultural Trade Caroline Gunning-Trant [email protected] (02) 6272 2123

Agricultural Commodities Peter Collins [email protected] (02) 6272 2017

Commodities Data Dianne Stefanac [email protected] (02) 6272 2311

Research Engagement

and Outlook Anna Carr [email protected] (02) 6272 2287

Spatial Information

Standards and Implementation Evert Bleys [email protected] (02) 6272 5627

Biosecurity and Farm Analysis

Assistant Secretary Lisa Elliston [email protected] (02) 6272 2219

Biosecurity Ben Buetre [email protected] (02) 6272 2404

Farm Analysis Milly Lubulwa [email protected] (02) 6272 2069

Survey Collection John Gray [email protected] (02) 6272 5381

Invasive Species Bertie Hennecke [email protected] (02) 6272 4263

Climate Change and Variability

Assistant Secretary Helal Ahammad [email protected] (02) 6272 2366

Climate Change Economics Edwina Heyhoe [email protected] (02) 6272 2109

Climate Impact Sciences Matthew Miller [email protected] (02) 6272 3527

Mitigation and Adaptation

Sciences Kate Harle [email protected] (02) 6272 3347

ABARES contacts


ABARES contacts

148

Agricultural commodities June quarter 2013was designed and produced by the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry and the Agricultural Commodities team of ABARES.

Editors: Jenny Cook and Emma Rossiter

Fisheries and Quantitative Sciences

Assistant Secretary Ilona Stobutzki [email protected] (02) 6272 4277

Domestic Fisheries and

Marine Environment Andrew Penney [email protected] (02) 6272 3726

International Fisheries James Larcombe [email protected] (02) 6272 3388

Fisheries Economics Robert Curtotti [email protected] (02) 6272 2014

Quantitative Sciences Belinda Barnes [email protected] (02) 6272 5374

Land and Forests

Assistant Secretary David Cunningham [email protected] (02) 6272 5954

Forest Sciences Steve Read [email protected] (02) 6272 5582

Forest and Land Economics Beau Hug [email protected] (02) 6272 3929

Land Use and Management Phil Pritchard [email protected] (02) 6272 4193

Productivity, Water and Social Sciences

Assistant Secretary Peter Gooday [email protected] (02) 6272 2138

Productivity and Innovation Alistair Davidson [email protected] (02) 6272 2487

Water Research Tim Goesch [email protected] (02) 6272 2009

Social Sciences Saan Ecker [email protected] (02) 6272 5930

Library Resources Libby Williams [email protected] (02) 6272 4715

Production, Online and Design Merryn West [email protected] (02) 6272 2290

Media [email protected] (02) 6272 3232

Publication inquiries [email protected] (02) 6272 2010

daff.gov.au/abares

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)

Postal address GPO Box 1563 Canberra ACT 2601

Switchboard +61 2 6272 2010

Facsimile +61 2 6272 2001

Email [email protected]

Web daff.gov.au/abares

Also in this series• Agricultural commodities, March 2012• Agricultural commodities, June 2012• Agricultural commodities, September 2012• Agricultural commodities, December 2012• Agricultural commodities, March 2013

The ‘Biosphere’ Graphic ElementThe biosphere is a key part of the department’s visual identity. Individual biospheres are used to visually describe the diverse nature of the work we do as a department, in Australia and internationally.

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Documents

Agricultural commoditiesdata.daff.gov.au/.../AgCommodities2013.No2_Ver1.0.0_lr.pdf · From 2013 ABARES is producing papers profiling agricultural, fisheries and forestry activities