IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Paris, 8 November, 2019

Africa energy outlook

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Context

• With rising population, urbanisation and industrialisation, Africa is increasingly influential

for global energy trends.

• Renewables and natural gas are acting as an accelerator to development in a few

countries, but in many others, energy remains a brake to development:

- Access to electricity and clean cooking remains elusive.

- Investment in power infrastructures among the lowest in the world.

- Traditional use of biomass dominates the energy mix.

• Five years after the IEA’s first special report on Africa, we return to take an in-depth look at

Africa’s energy sector, with two prominent features:

- Individual analysis of 11 countries representing three-quarters of the continent’s GDP

- Africa Case: an analysis of how the energy sector can deliver the sustainable

development goals and spur economic growth ambitions of Agenda 2063

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Africa: home to more than 2 billion people by 2040

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

China

India

Africa

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2018

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

China

India

Africa

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2019

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

China

India

Africa

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2020

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

China

India

Africa

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2021

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

China

Africa

India

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2022

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

Africa

China

India

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2023

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

Africa

India

China

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2024

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

Africa

India

China

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2025

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

Africa

India

China

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2026

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

Africa

India

China

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2027

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

Africa

India

China

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2028

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

Africa

India

China

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2029

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

Africa

India

China

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2030

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

Africa

India

China

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2031

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

Africa

India

China

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2032

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

Africa

India

China

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2033

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

Africa

India

China

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2034

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

Africa

India

China

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2035

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

Africa

India

China

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2036

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

Africa

India

China

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2037

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

Africa

India

China

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2038

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

Africa

India

China

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Middle East

Million people

2039

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

Africa

India

China

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Million people

2040

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

Africa

India

China

Southeast Asia

European Union

United States

Million people1 500500 1 000 2 000 2 500

Million peopleAfrica’s population increases by 800 million to 2040, 70% of the growth is in cities - the largest scale of

urbanisation in history. By 2040, the average age in Africa is 12 years younger than the global average.

Million people500 1 000 1 500 2 000

Population in 2040

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A major shift towards modern and efficient energy mix

The continent can fuel an economy four-times larger than today with only 50% more energy, driven by a

major shift towards modern energy sources such as renewables and natural gas and efficiency improvements

Total primary energy demand in Africa GDP in Africa

250 500 750 1 000 1 250

2040

Africa Case

2040

Stated Policies

2018

Mtoe

Biomass Nuclear Coal Oil Natural gas Renewables

10 20

Trillion dollars (2018)

4x1.5x

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Full energy access remains elusive

Population without access

Electricity

200

400

600

800

1 000

2000 2010 2018 2030

Peo

ple

(m

illio

n)

2000

Clean cooking

Population without access

KenyaEthiopia

Other sub-Saharan Africa

GhanaGhana, Senegal

& RwandaCote d’Ivoire

Tanzania

Other sub-Saharan Africa

Kenya

2010 2018 2030

Despite progress in several countries, current and planned efforts to provide access to electricity barely

outpace population growth; efforts for clean cooking need to accelerate even more

Despite progress in several countries, current and planned efforts to provide access to electricity barely

outpace population growth;

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Full energy access remains elusive

Electricity Clean cooking

Despite progress in several countries, current and planned efforts to provide access to electricity barely

outpace population growth; efforts for clean cooking need to accelerate even more

Despite progress in several countries, current and planned efforts to provide access to electricity barely

outpace population growth;

Liquified

Petroleum Gas

(LPG)

36%

Improved

Cookstoves

35%

Electricity

12%

Gas &

Biogas

11%

Solutions to provide full access by 2030 Clean cooking fuels and technologies in 2030

Grid extension

and densification

43%

Mini-grids

31%

Stand-alone

Systems

26%

Ethanol & others

6%

Continued from previous

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With cooling needs set to double, efficiency measures are vital

A major increase in the number of hot days in Africa, alongside rapid urbanisation and higher incomes, drives

growing demand for cooling.

700 million people need cooling in Africa today

Megacities

>10 million

Kinshasa

0 3 000 6 000

Cooling degree days

Lagos

Cairo

Efficiency measures cut the potential impact on electricity demand in half

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With cooling needs set to double, efficiency measures are vital

0

50

100

150

200

250

2018 2040

Africa Case

A major increase in the number of hot days in Africa, alongside rapid urbanisation and higher incomes, drives

growing demand for cooling.

Residential cooling demand, 2018 and 2040

Megacities

>20 million

>10 million

Kinshasa

0 3 000 6 000

Cooling degree days

TWh

Dar es Salaam

LagosAbidjanNairobi

Luanda

Cairo

Efficiency measures cut the potential impact on electricity demand in half

Demand reduction achieved with greaterefficiency

Khartoum

Addis Ababa

In 2040: 1 200 million people need cooling

Continued from previous

IEA 2019. All rights reserved. TW

h

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

TW

h

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

Renewables push ahead to power Africa’s brighter future

Electricity demand growth potential is large, primarily from emerging middle classes and productive uses;

renewables provide over half of electricity with solar PV becoming the second largest source of generation

Electricity demand in Africa Electricity generation in Africa

2018

Africa Case

2040 2018

Africa Case

2040

Gas

Solar PV

Hydro

Other renewables

Other

Productive uses

Other households

Households

gaining access Wind

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Mobilising investment – challenging but achievable

Achieving Africa’s ambition requires almost a fourfold increase in power sector investment, to around

$120 billion a year, with the vast majority going to low-carbon generation and grid networks

Average annual power sector

investment needs in Africa

Generation Electricity network

1%

2%

3%

India China Southeast

Asia

Africa (2019-40) 2000-18

Stated

Policies

Africa

Case

Billio

n d

ollars

(2018)

Historical power sector investment in selected

regions as share of GDP

2018 Stated

Policies

Africa

Case

2019-40

40

80

120

2x

2x

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Natural gas is facing a potential turning point in Africa

Recent discoveries across the continent could fit well with Africa’s push for industrial growth and its

need for reliable electricity, but developing infrastructure requires strong policy supports

Gas net exports and demand in AfricaShare of global gas discoveries,

2011-18

Egypt

Mozambique

and Tanzania

Senegal and

Mauritania

Rest of

Africa

59%

Rest

of world

7%

24%

6%

4%

bcm

100

200

300

400Exports Demand

2018 2040 2018 2040 2040(Africa Case)

2040(Africa Case)

North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa

Australia

(2040)

European

Union

(2040)

Japan and

Korea

(2040)

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Future hydrocarbon revenues under pressure

African producers face a world where markets for their ample resources are not guaranteed; the need for

transparent revenue management and economic diversification is greater than ever

Net income from oil and gas production in top-ten producers in Africa

100

200

300

400

2000 2005 2010 2018 2025-40

Oil net income Gas net income Government expenditure

Stated

Policies

Billio

n d

ollars

(2018)

Faster energy

transitions

2014

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Crucial linkage between African minerals and global energy transition

Responsible and sustainable development of Africa’s mineral resources is vital for Africa’s economic

outcomes and global energy transitions

Share of Africa in global minerals production, 2018

Manganese Cobalt Platinum Tantalum

Africa Rest of world

Share of minerals in product exports in Africa, 2017

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Africa ZambiaDR Congo

OtherMinerals

South

Africa

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Not a major emitter, but climate change matters greatly for Africa

While Africa is responsible for a small portion of global CO2 emissions, it suffers greatly from the

impacts of climate change, underlining the importance of climate-resilient infrastructure

Cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario

2%

Africa

Rest of the world

1890 - 2018

3%

1890 - 2040 Stated Policies

20

40

60

80

100

Africa

Gt

Increase in theAfrica Case

Stated Policies

1890-2018

2019 – 2040:

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Conclusion

• Africa’s young, fast growing and increasingly urban population is set to drive the

continent’s economic and energy development as well as global energy trends.

• Thanks to technology improvements and resource endowments, Africa has the unique

opportunity to build its development on cleaner energies such as renewables and gas.

• A critical task for policymakers is to address the persistent lack of access to electricity and

clean cooking, and the unreliability of electricity supply.

• Building a reliable power system requires a significant scale-up in investment; mobilising

capital is a challenging undertaking, but can be achievable with adequate policy measures.

• Achieving the outcomes of the Africa Case would be neither energy-intensive nor

emissions-intensive thanks to stronger roles of energy efficiency and clean energies.

• Although not a major emitter, Africa is in the front line for the effects of a changing

climate. Energy infrastructure planning must be climate-resilient.

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Africa Energy Outlook 2019

https://www.iea.org/Africa2019

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.