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Africa energy outlook - Microsoft · PDF file Renewables push ahead to power Africa’s brighter future Electricity demand growth potential is large, primarily from emerging middle

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  • IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

    Paris, 8 November, 2019

    Africa energy outlook

  • IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

    Context

    • With rising population, urbanisation and industrialisation, Africa is increasingly influential

    for global energy trends.

    • Renewables and natural gas are acting as an accelerator to development in a few

    countries, but in many others, energy remains a brake to development:

    - Access to electricity and clean cooking remains elusive.

    - Investment in power infrastructures among the lowest in the world.

    - Traditional use of biomass dominates the energy mix.

    • Five years after the IEA’s first special report on Africa, we return to take an in-depth look at

    Africa’s energy sector, with two prominent features:

    - Individual analysis of 11 countries representing three-quarters of the continent’s GDP

    - Africa Case: an analysis of how the energy sector can deliver the sustainable

    development goals and spur economic growth ambitions of Agenda 2063

  • IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

    Africa: home to more than 2 billion people by 2040

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    China

    India

    Africa

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2018

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    China

    India

    Africa

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2019

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    China

    India

    Africa

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2020

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    China

    India

    Africa

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2021

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    China

    Africa

    India

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2022

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    Africa

    China

    India

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2023

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    Africa

    India

    China

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2024

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    Africa

    India

    China

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2025

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    Africa

    India

    China

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2026

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    Africa

    India

    China

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2027

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    Africa

    India

    China

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2028

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    Africa

    India

    China

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2029

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    Africa

    India

    China

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2030

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    Africa

    India

    China

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2031

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    Africa

    India

    China

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2032

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    Africa

    India

    China

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2033

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    Africa

    India

    China

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2034

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    Africa

    India

    China

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2035

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    Africa

    India

    China

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2036

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    Africa

    India

    China

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2037

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    Africa

    India

    China

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2038

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    Africa

    India

    China

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Middle East

    Million people

    2039

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    Africa

    India

    China

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Million people

    2040

    500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

    Africa

    India

    China

    Southeast Asia

    European Union

    United States

    Million people 1 500500 1 000 2 000 2 500

    Million people Africa’s population increases by 800 million to 2040, 70% of the growth is in cities - the largest scale of

    urbanisation in history. By 2040, the average age in Africa is 12 years younger than the global average.

    Million people500 1 000 1 500 2 000

    Population in 2040

  • IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

    A major shift towards modern and efficient energy mix

    The continent can fuel an economy four-times larger than today with only 50% more energy, driven by a

    major shift towards modern energy sources such as renewables and natural gas and efficiency improvements

    Total primary energy demand in Africa GDP in Africa

    250 500 750 1 000 1 250

    2040

    Africa Case

    2040

    Stated Policies

    2018

    Mtoe

    Biomass Nuclear Coal Oil Natural gas Renewables

    10 20

    Trillion dollars (2018)

    4x1.5x

  • IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

    Full energy access remains elusive

    Population without access

    Electricity

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1 000

    2000 2010 2018 2030

    P e o

    p le

    ( m

    il li o

    n )

    2000

    Clean cooking

    Population without access

    Kenya Ethiopia

    Other sub-Saharan Africa

    Ghana Ghana, Senegal

    & Rwanda Cote d’Ivoire

    Tanzania

    Other sub-Saharan Africa

    Kenya

    2010 2018 2030

    Despite progress in several countries, current and planned efforts to provide access to electricity barely

    outpace population growth; efforts for clean cooking need to accelerate even more

    Despite progress in several countries, current and planned efforts to provide access to electricity barely

    outpace population growth;

  • IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

    Full energy access remains elusive

    Electricity Clean cooking

    Despite progress in several countries, current and planned efforts to provide access to electricity barely

    outpace population growth; efforts for clean cooking need to accelerate even more

    Despite progress in several countries, current and planned efforts to provide access to electricity barely

    outpace population growth;

    Liquified

    Petroleum Gas

    (LPG)

    36%

    Improved

    Cookstoves

    35%

    Electricity

    12%

    Gas &

    Biogas

    11%

    Solutions to provide full access by 2030 Clean cooking fuels and technologies in 2030

    Grid extension

    and densification

    43%

    Mini-grids

    31%

    Stand-alone

    Systems

    26%

    Ethanol & others

    6%

    Continued from previous

  • IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

    With cooling needs set to double, efficiency measures are vital

    A major increase in the number of hot days in Africa, alongside rapid urbanisation and higher incomes, drives

    growing demand for cooling.

    700 million people need cooling in Africa today

    Megacities

    >10 million

    Kinshasa

    0 3 000 6 000

    Cooling degree days

    Lagos

    Cairo

    Efficiency measures cut the potential impact on electricity demand in half

  • IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

    With cooling needs set to double, efficiency measures are vital

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    2018 2040

    Africa Case

    A major increase in the number of hot days in Africa, alongside rapid urbanisation and higher incomes, drives

    growing demand for cooling.

    Residential cooling dema

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