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Aerospace Market OverviewAerospace Market Overviewa P&W Perspective
Craig Musson
COMPANY PRIVATEOctober 2007
Director, Commodity Management
Aerospace Market Overview, a P&W PerspectiveA dAgenda
• Titanium Applications in Gas Turbine Engines
• Aerospace Market Data & Forecasts
• Responding to our Customers’ Needs
COMPANY PRIVATE
Aerospace Market Overview, a P&W PerspectiveTitanium in Gas Turbine Engines
Titanium Base Alloys
Titanium in Gas Turbine Engines
• Strength to weight ratio• Strength to weight ratio• Durability• Manufacturability• Repair-ability• Thermal Stability• Thermal Stability
COMPANY PRIVATE
Aerospace Market Overview, a P&W PerspectiveE i M i l C % b W i h
OtherSheet12%
Other
Engine Material Content, % by Weight
8%12%
Castings25%S ll
20%
25%
Forgings
Superalloys50%
Titanium Forgings45%Structural
Castings and Seamless Rings
10%
30%
MATERIAL FORM10%
COMPANY PRIVATE
Anticipate continued use of Ti forgings, castings & sheet productsAnticipate continued use of Ti forgings, castings & sheet products
Aerospace Market Overview, a P&W Perspective
100% Other (Al, Composites…)ht
Steel
50%
% W
eigh
Ni & Co Superalloys
Titanium
0%1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2000 2010 2020
COMPANY PRIVATE
Titanium use in Engines forecasted to remain constantTitanium use in Engines forecasted to remain constant
Aerospace Market Overview, a P&W PerspectiveRevenue Passenger Miles 1990 – 2011E
4 0
World Airlines
Revenue Passenger Miles 1990 2011E
3 0
3.5
4.0(RPM, trillions) ~7% annual growth
2 0
2.5
3.0
'00 '01 '02 03E 04E 05E 06E 07ERPM 2.12 2.03 2.04 1.99 2.13 2.24 2.41 2.56Yr/Yr % 7.7% -4.1% 0.3% -2.5% 7.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
1 0
1.5
2.0
0.5
1.0
COMPANY PRIVATE
0.090 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 07E08E09E10E11E
C i l Ai li P fit bilitAerospace Market Overview, a P&W PerspectiveCommercial Airline Profitability
$6.0
$9.0
-$3.0
$0.0
$3.0
-$9.0
-$6.0
U.S. carriers*International carriers
-$15.0
-$12.0
2005 2006 2007 2008
COMPANY PRIVATE
Projected Projected* Excludes restructuring costsSource: ICAO history, IATA projections
F t d Ai ft M k t 2007 2026Aerospace Market Overview, a P&W PerspectiveForecasted Aircraft Market: 2007-202623,420 Total Aircraft
AFRICA
N. AMERICA
579MIDEAST1307L.
AMERICA56881350
ASIA/PACASIA/PAC8344 EUROPE
6151
WHILE GROWTH RATES ARE IMPORTANT, SO IS MARKET SIZE
• commercial passenger aircraft 95 seats and above
COMPANY PRIVATE
WHILE GROWTH RATES ARE IMPORTANT, SO IS MARKET SIZEASIA IS LONG TERM AN OBVIOUS WINNER
Aerospace Market Overview, a P&W PerspectiveAnnual Installed Engine Deliveries
# ENGINES DELIVERED
53,000 Total Engines Delivered, 2007-2026
Annual Installed Engine Deliveries
3000
3500>65K
# ENGINES DELIVERED
2000
250046-65K
1000
150018-45K
0
500
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2
12-18K
COMPANY PRIVATE
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
L Milit E i D li i 1985 2020Aerospace Market Overview, a P&W Perspective
500F100 F117 F119 F135 JSTARS T k All h
Large Military Engine Deliveries 1985-2020
350400450 F100 F117 F119 F135 JSTARS Tanker All other
200250300
50100150
01985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
COMPANY PRIVATE
Aerospace Market Overview, a P&W PerspectiveR di t O C t ’ N d
Raw MaterialSupplier ExpectationsP&W Reacts
Our Customer Expects….
Responding to Our Customer’s Needs
Supplier Expectations
Supplier “GOLD”
P&W Reacts
Lean & Flexible – A.C.E.
p
Spare parts < 1 week
Continuous ImprovementImproved ForecastingEngine O/H < 4 weeks
Lead-time Reduction
Reduce Costs
Buffer Strategy
Productivity &
New Engine < 20 wks
Affordability yStrategic Sourcing
y
Perfect QualityPerfect Quality –– 100% On100% On--timetime
COMPANY PRIVATE
Perfect Quality Perfect Quality –– 100% On100% On--timetime
Aerospace Market Overview, a P&W PerspectiveS• Titanium is, and will remain, ~30% of an engine’s weight.
Summary
• We anticipate a market softening over the next decadeReduction in Large Commercial Engines until 2016- Reduction in Large Commercial Engines until 2016
- Reduction in Military Engines until 2016 – JSF high rate productionp
• The demand for perfect quality, 100% on-time delivery, & affordability will continue, with relentless pressure on lead –a o dab ty w co t ue, w t e e t ess p essu e o eadtime reduction.
COMPANY PRIVATE
We must be lean, flexible, reduce costs & lead-times