ADWEC Winter 2011 / 2012ADWEC Winter 2011 / 2012ADWEC Winter 2011 / 2012 ADWEC Winter 2011 / 2012 Electricity & Water Demand Electricity & Water Demand

ForecastsForecasts

MrMr Keith MillerKeith MillerDirector of Planning and Studies

Mohammed Al Hajjiri Einar Al Hareeri

Ab Dh bi W t d El t i it CAb Dh bi W t d El t i it C

Head of Water Demand Forecasting Head of Electricity Demand Forecasting

Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity CompanyAbu Dhabi Water and Electricity Companywww.adwec.aewww.adwec.ae

MEED Arabian Power & Water Summit6th 7th March 2012

© Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Company            |        keithmiller@adwec.ae       |         Tel: +971‐2‐694 3816      |      Fax: +971‐2‐6425773

6th – 7th March 2012Park Hyatt Hotel, Abu Dhabi, UAE

2011 Electricity Demand Actuals2011 Electricity Demand Actuals

• Emirate of Abu DhabiEmirate of Abu DhabiElectricity Peak Demand : + 800 MW +12%+12%((7 683 MW7 683 MW))((7,683 MW7,683 MW))

Electricity Energy Demand : (MWh) +10%+10%

• Exports (FEWA / SEWA)Exports to Northern Emirates (FEWA / SEWA) : + >300 MW +19%+19%((2 066 MW2 066 MW))((2,066 MW2,066 MW))

Gl b l E i t f Ab Dh bi + E tGl b l E i t f Ab Dh bi + E tGlobal = Emirate of Abu Dhabi + ExportsGlobal = Emirate of Abu Dhabi + Exports

• GlobalGlobal (Emirate of Abu Dhabi + FEWA / SEWA Exports)Electricity Peak Production : + 1200 MW +14%+14%((9,749 MW9,749 MW))

Electricity Energy Demand : (MWh) +13%+13%(56,602,646 MWh (56,602,646 MWh excluding GCC exports excluding GCC exports ))

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Emirate of Abu Dhabi Emirate of Abu Dhabi Electricity Peak Demand (MW)Electricity Peak Demand (MW)Electricity Peak Demand (MW)Electricity Peak Demand (MW)

•• 1990 1990 –– 2011 Average 2011 Average : : 8% p.a.8% p.a.

•• 1990 1990 –– 2006 Average 2006 Average : : 7% p.a. 7% p.a.

Very little ADNOC (Oil GDP) related electricity demand before 2007.Provides a good historichistoric proxy for NonNon--Oil GDPOil GDP’s electricity demand growth.

•• 2007 2007 –– 2011 Average 2011 Average : : 10%10% p.a.p.a.

Electricity demand has grown > 10% in 4 out of 5 years.Post-2006 electricity demand has grown faster than pre-2006.

•• 2008 2008 –– 2011 Average 2011 Average : : 11% p.a.11% p.a.

Abu Dhabi’s Peak Electricity Demand Growth Rate has increased in recent years.Abu Dhabi’s Peak Electricity Demand Growth Rate has increased in recent years.bu ab s ea ect c ty e a d G o t ate as c eased ece t yea sbu ab s ea ect c ty e a d G o t ate as c eased ece t yea s

2011 Abu Dhabi Peak :2011 Abu Dhabi Peak : 7,683 MW7,683 MW2011 Global Peak2011 Global Peak :: 9 749 MW9 749 MW

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Global Peak Electricity Production to exceed Global Peak Electricity Production to exceed 10,000 MW10,000 MW in 2012 in 2012

2011 Global Peak 2011 Global Peak :: 9,749 MW9,749 MW

Electricity Demand Forecasting StructureElectricity Demand Forecasting Structure4 Key Components

1.1. Firm Contracted Exports Firm Contracted Exports (FEWA / SEWA)FEWA / SEWA)Firm Contracted Exports : FEWA / SEWA / FE (~2,066 MW 2011)Excludes non-firm interruptible exports : e.g. ADWEC’s exports to Bahrain August 50 MW / September 2011 100 MW.

4 Key Components

2. ADNOCADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) (~500+ MW 2011). Oil & Gas GDPOil & Gas GDP

3.3. IndustryIndustry (~600 MW 2011)Emirates SteelZonesCorpKhalifa Industrial Zone Abu Dhabi (KIZAD)Khalifa Industrial Zone Abu Dhabi (KIZAD).ChemaWEyaat (Abu Dhabi National Chemicals Company).ADBIC (Abu Dhabi Basic Industries Corporation).

NonNon--Oil & GasOil & GasGDPGDP

4.4. Residential / CommercialResidential / Commercial (~5,600 MW 2011)

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( )GovernmentResidential (e.g. Al Raha Beach / Al Reem Island). Commercial Tourism (e.g. Yas Island / Saadiyat Island / Abu Dhabi Airport)

Firm Contacted Exports ForecastFirm Contacted Exports Forecast(FEWA / SEWA) (FEWA / SEWA)

• March 2011H.H. President ordered new investments in the Northern Emirates’ electricity and water sector.

ADWEA provided ADWEC with FEWA / SEWA Export Forecasts to use for planning purposes.

• 2011 ADWEC Peak Exports = 2,066 MWSSimilar in size to :

FEWA capacity ~ 1,300 MWSEWA capacity ~ 2,400 MWFEWA + SEWA ~ 3,700 MW

• 2011 – 2013 ExportsADWEC’ P k E t t N th E i t > 80%ADWEC’s Peak Exports to Northern Emirates > +80%

2013 Peak Exports > 3,800+ MW3,800+ MW and will exceed :

a) Sum of current FEWA + SEWA capacity.a) Sum of current FEWA SEWA capacity.b) Abu Dhabi’s 2001 peak demand (3,723 MW).c) Bahrain’s 2011 Peak Demand (2,812 MW).d) 3+ times larger than maximum GCCIA interconnection (1,200 MW).

•• ADWEC largest exporter of Electricity within GCC.ADWEC largest exporter of Electricity within GCC.5

ADNOC Forecast ADNOC Forecast (Oil & Gas GDP)(Oil & Gas GDP)

Emirate of Abu Dhabi's 2010 GDP (AED million current prices)

308,022Oil GDP49.7%

Non-Oil GDP50.3%

312,294

Oil GDPNon-Oil GDP

Source : Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi (SCAD) 2011 Statistical Yearbook, page 19, Table 1.1.2.

•• ADNOCADNOC accounted for just 6% of ADWEC’s 2011 electricity demand peakADNOC ADNOC accounted for just 6% of ADWEC s 2011 electricity demand peak.

•• ADNOC (ADNOC (Oil & Gas GDP)) has historically generated most of its own electricity (pre-2007).

•• In future ADWEC will supply most ofwill supply most of ADNOCADNOC’s electricity demand.

• Each year ADNOCADNOC provides ADWEC with an Electricity Demand forecast.

Common Forecasting Assumptions(Exports + ADNOC)

20,000

( p )

12,803

13,660 13,989 14,250 14,523 14,83115,176

15,0002014 2015 2016

10,084

12,265

9,749

8,56310,000

eak

MW

Exports

,

Pe ADNOC

6,6297,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265

5,000

2011 N ADNOC D dNotes:

02010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2011 Non-ADNOC DemandExports includes F1 & F2 IWPPs' Auxiliaries & Pumping & Losses.ADNOC includes losses.2011 Non-ADNOC includes Emirate of Abu Dhabi's Auxiliaries, Losses, End-User Demands (excluding ADNOC).

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2011 : 9,7492011 : 9,749 MW2015 : 13,6602015 : 13,660 MW +40%+40% from higher ExportsExports / / ADNOCADNOC demands alone (8.8% p.a.)

How to Forecast NonHow to Forecast Non--Oil GDP’s Electricity Demand?Oil GDP’s Electricity Demand?• Exports electricity forecast Known• Exports electricity forecast – Known.

• ADNOC electricity demand forecast – Known.

4 Non-Oil GDP’s electricity demand forecasts developed by ADWEC.

2 Approaches :2 Approaches :

(1) Bottom-Up Projects Based approach( ) p j pp

(i) Projects Based Forecast (ADWEC’s Base Forecast)

(ii) Low Forecast (subset of Projects’ Based Forecast)

(2) Historical Trends approach

(iii) 1990 – 2006 : ~ 7% p.a.

(iv) 2007 – 2011 : ~ 10% p.a.

ADWEC Peak Electricity Demand Forecasts

21 107

21,233

22,920

24,781

21,440

23,120

25,000Northern Emirates Exports / Losses / Pumping / Auxiliaries

ADNOC

Non-ADNOC Demands

17,335

18,043

18,798

16,836

17,792

18,808

19,911

21,107

18,307

19,707

16 244

17,384

19,029

20,145

16,942

20,000Projects Based Forecast

Non-ADNOC 10% p.a. + Common Export / ADNOC Assumptions

Non-ADNOC 7% p.a. + Common Exports / ADNOC Assumptions

Common Assumptions + 2011 Non-ADNOC Demands

2014 2015 2016

12,991

14,164

16,02616,670

,

12,26512,803

13,66013,989 14,250 14,523

14,83115,176

13,290

14,395

15,858

10 791

13,751

15,145

13,226

14,673

16,244

15,39215,000

eak

MW

Low Forecast

10,38510,084

10,579

8,563

9,749

10,791

10,46310,000

Pe Exports

ADNOC

5,000

2011 Non-ADNOC Demand

6,629 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,265 7,2650

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Projects Based Forecast (base) 2011

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Projects Based Forecast (base)2011 – 2015 : Abu Dhabi : 11.3% p.a.Global : 13.6% p.a.

2011 Electricity Peak Demands (MW) : Abu Dhabi : 11.6% p.a.Global : 13.9% p.a.

ADWEC Electricity Peak Demand Forecasts (MW)ADWEC Electricity Peak Demand Forecasts (MW)

Low Base High

Global Forecast RangeGlobal Forecast Range2011 : 9,749 MW2011 : 9,749 MW

Low Base HighLow Forecast Projects Based 10% p.a. Non-ADNOC

2012 10,385 10,463 10,7912013 12,991 13,226 13,751, , ,2014 14,164 14,673 15,1452015 15,392 16,244 16,9422016 16,026 17,384 18,3072017 16 670 19 029 19 7072017 16,670 19,029 19,7072018 17,335 20,145 21,2332019 18,043 21,440 22,9202020 18,798 23,120 24,7818, 98 , , 8

Projects Based ForecastProjects Based Forecast2011 – 2015 : Abu Dhabi : 11.3% p.a.Global : 13.6% p.a.

2011 Electricity Peak Demands (MW) : Abu Dhabi : 11.6% p.a.Global : 13.9% p.a.

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2015 – 2020 : 7% - 8% p.a. (similar to long term 1990 – 2011 growth rate of 8% p.a.).

Cumulative Incremental Electricity Peak Demands Post-2011 (Projects Based Forecast)Post 2011 (Projects Based Forecast)

7,000

2011 2015 :2/3rds Exports / ADNOC 8.8%p.a.

6,000

Exports

2011 – 2015 : Abu Dhabi : 11.3% p.a.Global : 13.6% p.a.

4,000

5,000po ts

3,000

MW

ADNOC

2,000Exports

Industry

0

1,000 ADNOCIndustry Residential / Commercial

Residential / Commercial Auxiliaries

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02011-2013 2011-2015

ADWEC Projects Based ForecastPeak Electricity Demand (MW)

31,60432,695

33,73035,000

Global Demand (diversified)

24 583

25,718

26,80027,828

25,43226,299

27,62428,476

29,53730,462

30,000Emirate of Abu Dhabi (diversified)

2011 – 2020 : Abu Dhabi : 9 4% p a

18,243

19,58920,450

21,76522,611

23,66524,583

19,02920,145

21,440

23,12024,077

20,000

25,000

Exports Auxiliaries

Abu Dhabi : 9.4% p.a.Global : 10.1% p.a.

11,79512,691

14,07414,917

15,923

17,2938, 3

13,226

14,673

16,24417,384

15,000 Industry

8,0639,084

10,36010,463

7,6836,885

8,5639,749

10,000ADNOC

0

5,000 Residential / Commercial

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

ADWEC Water Peak Demand Forecastby Region (MIGD)by Region (MIGD)

1 2921,318

1,3401,3621,400

1,500

Global Demand = Emirate of Abu Dhabi System + Northern Emirates Supply

8891

9191

9191

9191

9191

9191

1 1151,141

1,1651,190

1,2151,237

1,259

1,0381,075

1,1071,134

1,156 1,177 1,196 1,2171,243

1,2671,292

1,100

1,200

1,300

56

81

8977

8085

88

828

881914

949981

1,0101,033

1,0551,075

1,0951,115

752

835

978 999

917

800

900

1,000

34

46

56

648

699

770

828752

690

600

700

800

300

400

500 Auxilliaries

Northern Emirates Supply

Western Region

Al Ain

Ab Dh bi

0

100

200

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Abu Dhabi

Global Demand

Emirate of Abu Dhabi System (excluding Auxiliaries)Note: The Global System peak differes from the sum of the individual area peaksdue to the difference in demand patterns (the peak occures in different months).

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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

2011 – 2015 : 8% - 9% p.a. 2015 – 2020 : 3% p.a. 2011 – 2020 : 5% - 6% p.a.

ADWEC Water Peak Demand Forecastsby Sector (MIGD)by Sector (MIGD)

1 2671,292

1,318 1,340 1,3621400

9991,038

1,0751,107

1,134 1,156 1,177 1,196 1,2171,243

1,267

1 086 1,106 1,1261,152

1,1761,202

1,2271,249

1,2711200

752

835

917

978 999

836

890923

959991

1,0201,043

1,066 1,086 ,

800

1000

655705

778690

600Total Northern Emirates Supply (Including Auxiliaries & Losses )

Industrial (including ADNOC)

Agricultural

400

Agricultural

Abu Dhabi Emirate Auxiliaries

Shabiat / Town houses

Villas

Domestic

0

200 Residential / Commercial Mega Projects

Bulk & Other

Emirate of Abu Dhabi (including Auxiliaries)

Global Peak Demand

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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

2011 – 2015 : 8% - 9% p.a. 2015 – 2020 : 3% p.a. 2011 – 2020 : 5% - 6% p.a.

Summary Summary

2011 Electricity Peak Demand (MW) :

Abu Dhabi : 11.6% p.a.Global : 13.9% p.a.`

ADWEC Winter 2011 / 2012 Peak Demand Forecast Summaryper annum per annum per annum

Electricity Demand Forecast 2011 - 2015 2015 - 2020 2011 - 2020Projects Based Forecast

Emirate of Abu Dhabi 11.3% 8.0% 9.4%Global (including exports) 13.6% 7.3% 10.1%

per annum per annum per annumWater Demand Forecast 2011 - 2015 2015 - 2020 2011 - 2020Most-Likely ForecastMost-Likely Forecast

Emirate of Abu Dhabi 8.0% 3.2% 5.3%Global (including exports) 9.1% 3.0% 5.7%

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Thank YouThank You

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