Text of Advanced Valuation Analysis Tools and Simulation Brian Stonerock CGU EMP Independent Study December...
Advanced Valuation Analysis Tools and Simulation Brian Stonerock CGU EMP Independent Study December Update
Overview Objective: Evaluate advanced investing and valuation concepts for investments through the development of robust cutting edge platform using the latest technologies December Update Project Plan and Progress Technical Analysis Technology / Data Sources Demo Next Steps
Project Plan Research and Plan Develop Framework Vaadin / Java Implement Simple Tools Implement Stock and Technical Analysis Connect to Historical Servers Implement Analysis Tools Data Mining (IP) Back Casting (IP) Bubble Bursting Documentation and Deployment
The Potential Rewards How can market timing can benefit returns? The only problem is that you have to be very good at it. Based on work from Norman Fosbeck 1984
The Potential Rewards (Cont) The benefit of being smart enough to miss the worst 5 days of the year between Feb 66 and Oct 01 Source: The Truth About Timing, by Jacqueline Doherty, Barrons (November 5, 2001)
Technical Analysis Technical analysis: The attempt to forecast stock prices on the basis of market-derived data Technicians (also known as quantitative analysts or chartists) usually look at price, volume and psychological indicators over time Basic Tools Trend Lines Moving Averages Price Patterns Indicators Cycles Support Resistance Breakout
Technical Indicators There are, literally, hundreds of technical indicators used to generate buy and sell signals We will look at just a few that I use: SMA Simple Moving Average EMA Exponential Moving Average RSI - Relative Strength Index (by Welles Wilder) 0 to 100 measurement the speed and change of price movements, >70 overbought and