Advanced EFSA Learning Programme

Session 4.2.

Situation Analysis Step 6

Estimating Severity of Food Insecurity & Malnutrition

Advanced EFSA Learning Programme

Learning Objectives

After this session, participants should be able to:List various indicators of severity of crisisExplain the meaning and value of the “convergence of evidence” conceptDescribe the “needs” vs. “food basket cost” method of estimating the food access gap

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Where are we?

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EFSA Process

Adapt conceptual framework & objectives

Prepare analysis plan: indicators, data, sources

Collect, review secondary data

Collect primary data

Conduct situation analysis

Conduct forecast analysis

Analyse response options

Make response recommendations

Prepare report

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Why estimate severity?

To ring the alarm if need be: we must announce if the situation is severe – or not

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How do we determine severity of the situation?Combination and convergence of findings such as: Magnitude: No. of individuals/HHs whose lives &

livelihoods are potentially at risk Size of food access or consumption gap Historical comparisons: comparing current population

in severe food insecurity with previous situations Increase in mortality rate (beyond norm for area) Acute malnutrition rates Other indicators?

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The “convergence of evidence” concept

Comparing different indicators: a powerful way to determine the severity of a crisis…

…particularly when different indicators lead to the same conclusion, show same patterns

The difficulty: Multiple sources are used – data only as good as source collecting them

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Estimating the access gapOne example

Cost of minimum “nutritious” food basket

Example of East Timor

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Calculating the cost of the minimum food basket…

Average HH size Food habits and what constitutes a “nutritional food

basket” – including main sources of micronutrients Sources of HHs’ food Cost of each food item

What information will we need to do this?

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Nutritional needs of 7-member family in Dili

  ENERGY PROTEIN FAT CALCIUM IRON VIT. A VIT. C

 Requirements kcal g g mg mg µg RE mg

Child <5 1,290 25.5 43.0 400 9 390 20

Child <5 1,290 25.5 43.0 400 9 390 20

Child 5-9 1,980 48.0 42.5 450 16 400 20

Child 10-14 2,210 50.0 42.1 600 24 550 25

Child 10-14 2,210 50.0 42.1 600 24 550 25

Lactating mother 2,920 69.6 64.9 600 17 850 50

Father 2,230 49.6 42.5 400 24 570 30

TOTAL/DAY 14,130 320 316 3,450 123 3,700 190

We need now to figure out what food items can cover these

nutritional needs

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Minimum cost of nutritious food basket for 7-member family in Dili

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Nutritious basket for 7-member family in Dili

 Daily needs (grams)

Monthly needs (kgs)

Cost per kg

Monthly cost of family

basket

Yellow maize 500 15.00 0.65 9.75

Cassava 1,300 39.00 0.35 13.65

Beans 600 18.00 0.50 9.00

Rice 1,100 33.00 0.43 14.19

Sugar 200 6.00 0.75 4.50

Groundnuts 225 6.75 1.00 6.75

Green leaves 1,200 36.00 0.20 7.20

Tomatoes 250 7.50 0.80 6.00

Vegetable oil 150 4.50 1.34 6.03

Milk 549 US$ 77.07

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Proxy for FoodAccess Gap in Dili

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HHs earning less than US$ 77.00 per month

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Access Gap in Dili = HHs earning less than US$77/month

Household access to healthy food basket w ithin food security groups

7658

32

2442

68

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Severely food insecure Moderately food

insecure

Food secure

Access gap No access gap

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Exercise 4.2.The “Minimum Cost Food Basket”: Challenges in Using the Method

As a group: consider the Dili Minimum Cost Food Basket

example just presented and discuss: What factors do you suppose made this method

feasible in Dili? What factors might make this method more

challenging? Why?

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Consider before calculating the food access deficit:

What is the average household size? What are the food habits? Which are the main sources of micronutrients? From which sources do households obtain their

food?

(relatively easier to calculate a food access gap in urban areas)