Addressing vulnerability to climate variability and change: strategies to enhance adaptive

capacities

International workshop on “Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change: From Practice

to Policy”11-12 May 2006, New Delhi

Review of studies on coping measures to extreme events

Droughts Floods

Rajasthan Assam

Karnataka UP

AP Bihar

Gujarat Orissa

Chattisgarh  

Single stress – climate change

Climate variability and change

Multiple stresses

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•CIDA agr

• APN agr/climate info•OFDA floods/droughts

• WB agr/water

• APN agr/rice-wheat

•Natcom agr/wat/for/health

•Indo-UK agr/wat/ for/health/coastal

•Natcom coastal/disasters

•Ford SLR•APN glaciers

•WB agr

HadCM2

Country-level Climate Change Impacts onCereal Production Potential on Currently Cultivated Land 2080s

Macro-scale modeling approaches highlight vulnerable regions

Climate change and economic changes in India: the impacts on

agriculture• Basic theme:

– climate change does not occur in isolation– globalization can alter vulnerability patterns –

DOUBLE EXPOSURE – agriculture most important sector for India

• Timeframe: February 2001 – March 2004• Funders: Canadian International Development

Agency (CIDA) and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government of Norway

• Partners: TERI, CICERO, IISD, Rutgers University

Elements of vulnerability profilesAdaptive capacity

Biophysical vulnerability• Soil degradation and cover• Groundwater availability

Social vulnerability• Agricultural workers and labourers• Literacy• Gender discrimination• Child mortality and fertility

Technological vulnerability• Irrigation• Infrastructure

Globalizationvulnerability

Climate change

vulnerability

Climate sensitivity (monsoon dependence and dryness)

Trade sensitivity (port distance and import-sensitive crops)

Village-level case studies – hh surveys + PRAs• coping capacity of communities to current adverse conditions • factors that enhance/constrain adaptive capacity of farmers

Jhalawar, Rajasthan • drought prone• low irrigation coverage, literacy, infrastructure

Chitradurga, Karnataka• water scarcity• proximity to city• contract farming and exports

Anantapur, Andhra Pradesh• semi-arid • response of groundnut farmers to import competition

Jagatsingpur, Orissa• cyclones, river floods• high population density• acute poverty• proximity to port

Raipur, Chattisgarh• rice belt of central India• crop diversification• low literacy, infrastructure

Rainfed farming: Lakhakheri UmatSemi/medium farmers – sale of stocksLandless labourers – seasonal migrationSmall/marginal farmers – temporary coping measuresNo long-term adaptive solutions

Opportunities to diversify Mixed farming:AnghoraAccess to irrigation enhances coping optionsMuch better availability of electricity, health facilities, and transport infrastructure (Kota markets)

Broad objectives• Reviewing coping strategies being employed by

communities in India and assessing issues and opportunities for adaptation

» study focus on drought and flood affected regions

» distinguish between reactive temporary mechanisms and measures for strengthening the adaptive capacities

» links with developmental aspects will be explored

• Assessing the effectiveness with which coping measures are being employed and the factors influencing their implementation

• Identifying/ suggesting measures to enhance adaptive capacities

» Incremental in nature than those currently being employed to cope during with such circumstances

Preliminary discussions and consultations Pennar in Andhra Pradesh, Mahanadi in Orissa, Godavari in Maharashtra

Study regions

AP Vulnerability Index

Focus: Chittoor and Anantapur1991: Anantapur – very high vul & Chittoor – high vul

2001: Shift to high vul in AnantapurKURNOOL

ADILABAD

KHAMMAM

ANANTAPUR

PRAKASAM

CHITTOOR

NELLORECUDDAPAH

MEDAK

GUNTUR

NALGONDA

MAHBUBNAGAR

WARANGAL

KRISHNA

KARIMNAGAR

VISAKHAPATNAM

NIZAMABAD

EAST GODAVARI

RANGAREDDI

SRIKAKULAM

WEST GODAVARI

VIZIANAGARAM

HYDERABAD

Micro-scale, case study based approaches highlight who is more vulnerable and extent of vulnerability

Example of matrix: level 1

Jhalawar Chitradurga Raipur Jagatsingpur

Irrigation

Insurance

Cropping pattern change

Marketing network

Migration

Which coping options are used?

Example of matrix: level 2

Irrigation Insurance Cropping pattern change

Marketing network

Awareness of govt schemes

Education

Land holding size

Community organisation (SHGs/PRIs/NGOs)

Which factors influence the effectiveness of those coping options?

Adaptive capacity influenced by…

• Physical factors– cropping pattern, crop diversification / shift to

resistant varieties or tolerant crops• Socioeconomic factors

– asset ownership – land, house, cattle, pumpsets, tractors, tillers, threshers

– access to public goods & facilities – banking, education and health services

– infrastructural support – irrigation, markets, proper communication network

– alternative employment options

Coping Strategies

• Reactive Coping• Change in cropping intensity• Credits/ loans• Shifting cattle and household

• Proactive Coping • Diversification to non-vulnerable income sources

(aquaculture, tolerant crop varieties….)• House adaptation - platforms• Insurance• Access to Government programs

Case study in Orissa: Preferred interventions in terms of priority as suggested by villagers

Case study in Orissa: Preferred interventions in terms of priority as suggested by villagers

Case study in Maharashtra• Developments in the last 15 years

– soil conservation initiatives introduced uphill by the village head

» Includes digging trenches to control soil erosion and develop its fertility

– most villagers not supportive of the fact initially

– interest only in a very small group » Related to threat of water being

utilised uphill further affecting its availability downhill

– actual situation» High rates of run-off from the hillock

surpassing the village, low recharge rates within the domain of that watershed

Picture: World Bank StudyS Bhadwal, 2005

A journey in the past– activities relating to

construction & restoration of tanks taken up

– process for building simultaneous large and small tanks for storage and recharge started

– tanks located downhill one after the other in series

Picture: S Bhadwal, 2005

Picture: S Bhadwal, 2005

Results to be seen..… – benefits in the form of reduced run-off,

increased recharge rates, increase in water tables and recharge of open wells “visible”

– community investments and other bilateral investments for soil conservation efforts and development of tanks started

– situation today………of water tables lying at a depth of 40-50 feet, its availability for irrigation purposes

– checking outward migration– generation of other income generating

opportunities – And more to list…….

Further developments• Proper planning and execution of other plans/

programmes in the village• Setting up of an NGO within the village with

villagers as members» Various village development activities promoted including

education and health centres besides the other development work

» In some cases technical expertise sought from the government bodies, especially the rural development department

• Village regulates its own water usage in line with the crop plans

» Villagers convinced not to grow sugarcane» Cropping patterns changed to onions, maize debarring

sugarcane growth» Crops taken each year based on an annual revisit of the

rainfall situation

Concluding• Strong and purposive leadership in the village

has brought about a transformation……..enhancing the resilience of communities in being able to cope even during drought years

• Examples can be quoted elsewhere in the country where such local level initiatives under strong leadership have been successful

» Tarun Bhagat Sangh and

» Initiatives by Shri Ana Hazare in Raley Gaon Sidhi

• Strong need to understand the processes behind and pose as testimonials

From practices to policy • Varying degrees of vulnerability at the national,

state, district, village and household level• Policy formulation to recognise the differentials• Also, learning's from community initiatives (eg.,

Maharashtra) and need for further successful government initiatives (eg., Maharashtra) to be adopted

• Conditions for replication at different levels needs to be critically analysed

• Synergise with different government policies for different purpose for better fortification of capacities (SGSY, Bharat Nirmaan, IWDP, DPAP etc….)

Thank you.http://www.teriin.org

http://www.teriin.org/coping