Adapting to climate change in decision

making

Mark Goldthorpe, UK Climate Impacts Programme

Climate change adaptation strategies in Impact Assessments Exeter, 8th October 2009

The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)

Set up by Government in 1997

•funded by Defra

•based at University of Oxford

Works through:

•stakeholder-led research

•partnerships

•programmes

•capacity building

“Helps organisations to assess how they might be affected by climate change, so that they can prepare for its impacts”

Provides free guidance, tools and datasets: www.ukcip.org.uk

A boundary organisation

UKCIP & IEMA

IEMA Practitioner, July 2009 –“Adapting to climate change: a guide to its management in organisations”

1. Managing the process2. Understanding the climate risk3. Developing an adaptation strategy

1. Managing the process

• Understanding the problem

• Identifying drivers and barriers

• Overcoming the constraints

• Who to involve?

• Mainstreaming adaptation

Understanding the problem: from climate ...Trends

Hotter, drier summers

Milder, wetter winters

Greater proportion of rain in heavy downpours

Sea level rise

EventsHeat

waves

Droughts

Floods

Fewer cold

snaps

Storms

ImpactsDamage to physical assets

Loss of access to buildings

Effects on biological/ industrial processes

Uncomfortable indoor environments

Damage to critical infrastructure

Changing lifestyles and consumer tastes

Changing commodity prices/ availability

ConsequencesLoss of business

continuity

Changing raw material, repair, maintenance, insurance costs

Health/ comfort implications for employees

Increased/ decreased productivity

Changing markets

Effect on reputation

... to consequences

Climate Change

Potential impacts on:

Markets

Logistics

Process

Finance

People

Premises

Management response

Reputational risk

Health & safety risk

Strategic riskFinancial risk

Operational risk

Environmental risk

Impacts on

MarketsFinancesLogisticsProcessesPremisesPeople

Consequences for organisation & stakeholders

IEMA members’ survey

Around 1,000 IEMA members provided feedback, September 2009

• 62% of organisations are planning now for adaptation to climate change (local government 90%, utilities 76%, other business sectors 62% - 65%)

• Identifying risks relating to their

o Markets 53%

o Finances 46%

o Logistics 44%

o Processes 53%

o Premises 57%

o People 49%

Identifying drivers and barriers

• Stakeholder requirements

• Increasing exposure to liability or costs

• Opportunities for improvements

AdaptationFor Against

• Lack of knowledge or resources

• Long term / short term decisions

• Attitudes to risk & uncertainty

2. Understanding the climate risk

• Vulnerability

• Critical thresholds

• Scoping future impacts

• From impacts to risk

• Vulnerability is a function of

o sensitivity to climatic variability & change

o exposure to climate risk

o capacity to adapt

• Affected by factors such as

o supply chain, physical assets, activities, market features,

locations, resources, institutional arrangements

What is vulnerability?

• An organisation should be able to

identify

o how particular types of weather have

affected it in the past

o critical thresholds

Developing a Local Climate Impacts Profile

• Uses past experiences and events to review

where operations are currently affected by

weather risks

o review significant recent local weather events, the

consequences and institutional responses in order

to understand current vulnerability

o assess effectiveness of current response

arrangements

o use information to raise awareness and prompt

action on high priority threats and opportunities

o process can then be developed into a more

systematic monitoring of impacts

o identify critical thresholds, which, if exceeded will

cause unacceptable risks

Scoping future impacts: BACLIAT

1. markets

2. logistics

3. process

4. finance

5. people

6. Premises

Leading to management responses

Climate change provides both ‘challenge’ and ‘opportunity’

Business Areas CLimate Impacts Assessment Tool

A generic framework for considering climate impacts on business areas

3. Developing an adaptation strategy

• Making a commitment

• Setting adaptation objectives

• Prioritising areas for action

• Identifying adaptation options

• Evaluating adaptation options

• Putting together a programme

• Keeping it relevant

Identifying adaptation options

Building Adaptive Capacity

1. Create, gather or share information

e.g. research

2. Create supportive governance

e.g. standards

3. Create supportive organisational structure

e.g. partnerships

Delivering Adaptation Actions

1. Accept, spread or share loss

e.g. Insurance

2. Avoid or minimise negative impacts

3. Exploit positive opportunities

e.g. introduce new activity

For example:

Strategic solution

Temporary arrangement

Separate hazard from receptor

Technical fix

Change working practice

System for quick recovery

Actions for others

And finally – important to remember!

Support is available

• Use the skills and knowledge in your organisation

• Use your professional bodies and networks

• Use the experience within your sector

• Use the resources within your region

• Use the expertise of researchers and consultancies

• Use national tools and resources – e.g. Defra, Met Office, UKCIP

www.ukcip.org.uk

Thank you!

business@ukcip.org.uk