1

Adapting to Climate Change & Environmental Pressures: Adaptation of Public Policy

Nancy OlewilerPublic Policy ProgramSimon Fraser University

Taming that Monster Under the Bed: Exploring Critical Relationships between Supply Chains and the EnvironmentJune 10, 2008

2

Is nature becoming more volatile?

3

Role of changing climate risk

Small changes in mean or extremes can yield large changes in risk

Infrastructure sensitive to Rate of climate change Changes in mean climate

(weathering) Changes in extremes

(thresholds/failure) Adaptive capacity (ability

to plan, respond, design, maintain)

[Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the slide & T. Peterson for the graphics]

4

Impacts of climate change magnified by:

Larger population & population density & size of the economy

Building in high risk areas (flood plains) Lack of awareness, access to information,

and understanding of climate impacts Too much insurance, sense of entitlement Regulatory, legislative barriers Lack of tools or willingness to integrate

knowledge with actions, BAU thinking Interest group pressures

5

Supply chain vulnerabilities to climate change

Transportation infrastructure: roads, rail lines, ports: damage from sea-level rise, erosion, flooding, land slides, and temperature extremes affecting road surfaces

Changes in productivity from natural resource sectors: forests, agriculture, mining due to temperature and precipitation (too much/too little): shorter ice road and drilling seasons, agricultural yields, pine beetle devastation

Fires impeding transportation, destroying infrastructure and communities

6

Infrastructure life & climate impacts coincide

Long life & high value of Canadian capital stock

How to avoid costly retrofits or replacement of infrastructure?

Think about what type of investment now

(From IPCC 2007, WG2-Chapter 15—slide from L. Mortsch)

7

Is the path forward clear?

“There is no scientific basis for claims that escalating disaster costs is the result of anything other than increasing societal vulnerability” (Pielke Jr., 2005 (Science))

“Society makes the assumption that technology and management can control nature and protect people” (Mileti, 1999; Disasters by Design)

Risk models need to change; cannot extrapolate from past experience (MunichRe)

“We need to better understand the compounding roles of increasing vulnerability and climate change” (Mills, 2005 (Science)) More people in harm’s

way vs. ongoing societal responses that should have compensated for this (Kunkel et al., 1999, BAMS)

Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the slide quotes.

8

Issues and questions that arise from the data and projections

How will the climate change? Do we have useful climate models or scenarios? Are weather predictions & warnings adequate?

How will changing climate affect my community: city, province, country?

Is disaster planning & management adequate? Do our land uses, infrastructure maintenance and

development take into account climate change? Do we have the expertise and capacity (human and

financial) to address climate change? What is the role & responsibility of government vs.

private sector vs. people?

9

Challenges: reasons to do nothing!

“I’ll deal with climate change when I see it happening – isn’t it good for Canada to be warmer!”

“I’ll deal with climate change when you can tell me exactly what I need to plan for”

“I don’t think global warming/climate change will affect my community”

“I’ll wait until I see other communities preparing for climate change”

“I don’t have time or money or information to deal with climate change right now”

“I don’t have enough authority to plan for climate change”

10

Challenges: confusion between mitigation and adaptation

Shouldn’t public policy focus on reducing GHG emissions (mitigation) rather than on adaptation to climate change?

Does this mean we give up and simply respond to whatever climate does to us?

11

Ways to address the challenges

First, find a name for what you are doing

Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the cartoon

A

M

Rapid deforestation for land use change (agriculture, mining, etc.)

Forest plantations for carbon sequestration;

expansion of large hydro development

[new vulnerabilities]

[AMSD]

Drought preparedness through demand side management;

expanded application of recycling and conservation principles

[adaptive emissions]

Expanded use of air conditioners, aquaculture and

sea walls

Emissions increased Emissions reduced

Vulnerability increased

Vulnerability reduced

A framework to link Adaptation (A) & Mitigation (M) [Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the diagram]

[unsustainable]

13

What is needed to address adaptation problems

Pull together resources (human, $) using a interdisciplinary team approach that includes Best available science Best available engineering and technology and planning Economic and business acumen to ensure we weigh

costs & benefits & achieve targets at minimum cost Determination of the vulnerabilities: personal,

business, community: risk assessment = vital Leaders who look beyond the next election cycle An informed and engaged public Partnerships with other jurisdictions/organizations

14

Ways to avoid paralysis

Start analysis of local vulnerabilities because: Many policy levers already exist, e.g.

Zoning & land use Infrastructure maintenance & investment Coincide with energy efficiency, GHG mitigation

Education and buy in of community is easier when make concrete link to local impacts

Likely minimizes costs of achieving targets because will be closer link between problem & solution (one size does not fit all)

Look for partners who can help

15

A framework for action

Define the problems you can tackle Due diligence:

Information on best practices/outcomes Design policy options in consultation with

experts, community, business, and other stakeholders

Evaluate options against criteria using best available information

Implement options with monitoring of their performance

16

Best practices

Adaptation Guidebooks and Frameworks

Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the slide

17

Example of best practices

King County, Washington: “Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments” By Center for Science in the Earth System (The Climate Impacts

Group), Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington & King County, Washington

A pragmatic step-by-step guide for local & regional governments

18

King County: suggested steps

Scope the Climate Change Impacts to Your Major Sectors Collect and Review Important Climate Information

How is Climate Expected to Change in Your Region? What are the Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Your Region?

Build and Maintain Support to Prepare for Climate Change Identify or Cultivate a “Champion” for Preparedness Identify and Understand Your Audience for Outreach Develop a Preparedness Message Spread the Message

Build Your Climate Change Preparedness Team How to Select Members and a leader for Your Team Prepare the Team’s Agenda

Conduct a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Review and Supplement Important Climate Information Conduct Your Climate Sensitivity Analysis Evaluate Adaptive Capacity for Systems in Your Planning Areas

19

King County steps continued

Conduct a Climate Change Risk Assessment Assess Your Climate Change Risks Establish Your List of Priority Planning Areas

Set Preparedness Goals and Develop Your Preparedness Plan Establish a Vision and Guiding Principles for a Climate Resilient

Community along with Preparedness Goals Identify Potential Preparedness Actions Assess your Actions against Criteria (effectiveness, efficiency,

robustness under scenarios, equity, precautionary principle, flexibility) Select and Prioritize Preparedness Actions

Implement Your Preparedness Plan Ensure that You Have the Right Implementation Tools Manage Uncertainty and Risk

Measure Your Progress, Review your Assumptions, and Update Your Plan

20

Illustration of template for risk & policy analysis

Planning area

Current and expected stress

Climate change impacts on system

Conse-quences of impact

High (H)

Medium (M)

Low (L)

Probability of impact

Estimate of risk to the system

Adaptation options

Road operation & maintenance

Pavement buckling on asphalt due to extreme heat events

More road maintenance required more often

M-H: Potholes affect public safety, road maintenance costs, travel restrictions, costs of goods, may affect 55% of city’s roads

High: more extreme heat events expected

M-H: assessment for all risks and expected outcomes

Search for more resilient materials

Ban heavy vehicles

21

Canadian initiatives: planning

Westbank, BC has included climate change in their Landscape Unit Water Management Plan

The town of Vanderhoof, BC is engaged in a vulnerability assessment pilot project

Alberta’s Water for Life Strategy addresses climate change impacts in areas that are currently water-stressed

British Columbia’s Future Forests Ecosystem Initiative incorporates climate change adaptation into forest management.

Research and networking have been supported through a range of federal, provincial and territorial programs.

MORE TALK THAN ACTION……..

22

City of Richmond -Climate Change Response

Thanks to Margot Daykin for the slide

23

Thanks to Margot Daykin for the slide

24

Canadian initiatives: policies Municipalities along the Quebec eastern North

Shore have introduced regulations to limit development in zones vulnerable to coastal erosion and flooding.

Greater use of water meters to reduce water consumption in cities & irrigation districts (e.g., Kelowna, Sudbury, Moncton, BC’s WaterSmart plan

Smog and heat-health warning systems have been implemented in Toronto and Montréal.

New Brunswick’s Coastal Areas Protection Policy establishes set-backs for permanent structures.

25

Example: Manitoba Actions Red River Floodway expanded from 1 in 90 to 1 in

700 year flood Integrated Watershed Management Planning Northern Winter Roads, relocated from ice

crossings to land for safety and sustainability East Side Lake Winnipeg Land Planning, traditional

knowledge to inform adaptive decision making Emergency Measures Office, municipal emergency

management plans Provincial Land Use Planning Policies updated to

include provisions for adaptation

Thanks to Neil Cunningham for the slide information.

26

Manitoba Overland flood protectionExisting Upgraded to 1 in 700

yr.

Blue (Surface and overland),

Brown (Basement and sewer) Thanks to Neil Cunningham for the slide

27

Climate adaptation policy: lessons learned…so far…

Establish integrative office with representation from across ministries/agencies (with funding and powers and education role – within bureaucracy and outreach)

Need to strengthen capacity in all related agencies

Strategic planning & early action vital to minimize costs

Early & continued public and business engagement with local jurisdictions to help set priorities; shared governance better than top down decrees; partnerships important

Articulate limitations to stakeholders so don’t ramp up expectations

Look for synergies with development activities – build better & smarter

Tough to get attention due to competing demands for time & $

Decision making is complex (at any level): e.g., inconsistent policy and regulations

Need long-term planning, not one-off projects; attach to a sustainability plan

Establish liability for poor planning; accountability framework for public and private entities

For information on ACT email: adapt@sfu.ca

Photos from Don Haley & Natural Resources Canada