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  • Spring 2020 Volume XLIII, No. 1

    COMMUNITY RESEARCH QUARTERLY A Socio-Economic Review

    Fairbanks North Star Borough

    Community Planning Department Community Research PO Box 71267 Fairbanks, Alaska 99707-1267 (907) 459-1260

  • COMMUNITY RESEARCH The Department of Community Planning is located on the second floor

    of the Juanita Helms Administration Center at 907 Terminal Street.

    CITATION Tabular and summary information contained herein may be reproduced without special permission. It is requested that any information reproduced be cited as follows: Fairbanks North Star Borough, Department of Community Planning, Community Research Quarterly, Vol. XLIII, No. 1, 2020.

    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Department of Community Planning would like to thank the many persons, businesses, government agencies and organizations who contributed to this report. FNSB has established a policy of equal opportunity in employment, service, programs and activities.

    COVER PAGE 2020 forget-me-not photo taken by Stephanie Pearson, Community Research Technician of the Fairbanks North Star Borough, Department of Community Planning.

  • FAIRBANKS NORTH STAR BOROUGH

    COMMUNITY RESEARCH QUARTERLY A Review of Socio-Economic Trends

    Volume XLIII, Number 1 Spring 2020

    January – March

    BOROUGH MAYOR Bryce J. Ward

    COMMUNITY PLANNING DEPARTMENT D. Christine Nelson, Director

    Kellen Spillman, Deputy Director

    COMMUNITY RESEARCH Stephanie Pearson, Community Research Technician

    Fairbanks North Star Borough, Community Planning Department PO Box 71267, Fairbanks, Alaska 99707-1267

    Phone: (907) 459-1260 E-mail: Planning@fnsb.us

    WEBSITE: http://fnsb.us/cp/Pages/crq.aspx

    © 2020

  • Table of Contents

    Page

    A Spotlight on Community Economic Trends i-vi

    Fairbanks Economy at a Glance 1-2

    Economic Indicators 3-18 Bank Deposit & Loan Summary 3 Bankruptcies Filed 4 Foreclosures and Notices of Default 5-6 Fairbanks International Airport Freight 7 Fairbanks International Airport Transit Freight 8 Fairbanks International Airport Revenue Landings 9 Fairbanks International Airport Passengers 10 Alaska Railroad Passengers 11 Alaska Railroad Freight Tonnage and Revenue Dollars 11 Hotel / Motel Room Receipts 12 Quarterly Hotel / Motel Room Receipts 12 Annual Hotel / Motel Room Receipts 13 Marijuana Sales Tax Revenue 14 Alaska Marijuana Excise Tax Revenue 15 University of Alaska Museum of the North Visitors 16 Delinquent Tax Accounts 17 Alaska Native Corporations Annual Shareholders and Revenue Dollars 18

    Employment 19-27 Civilian Labor Force Unemployment Rates 19-20 Average Unemployment Insurance Claimants and Payments 20 Unemployment Insurance Claimants and Payments 21 Average Monthly Employment Estimates by Industry 22 Annual Average Monthly Employment by Industry 23 Annual Average Monthly Wage by Industry 24 Annual Average Monthly Employment by Earned Income and Labor Force 25 Alaska's Per Capita Income by Borough and Census Area 26 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages by Industry 27

    NEW

    a Spring 2020 Community Research Quarterly

  • Table of Contents

    Community Research Quarterly Spring 2020 b

    Page

    Housing 28-33 Apartment / Multi-Plex Vacancy Rates 28 Rental Housing Units Available 29 Average Monthly Rents for Available Housing Units 30 Residential Housing Sales 31 Annual Average Residential Housing Sales 32 New Structures Annual Report 33

    Cost of Living 34-40 C2ER Cost of Living Index 34-35 Consumer Price Index-U for All Items 35 Consumer Price Index-U (Anchorage) 36 Consumer Price Index-U for All Items (U.S. City Average) 36 Average Self-service Unleaded Gasoline Prices 37 Electric Customers 38 Natural Gas Customers and Rates 39 Water Customers 40

    Population & Social Conditions 41-52 Population Counts & Estimates 41 Military Population 42 Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Counties of Alaska 43 Superior Court Filings 44 District Court Filings 45 Criminal Offense Summary 46 Traffic Crashes 47 Annual Alcoholic Beverages Distributed or Sold 48 Average & Record Temperatures 49 Snowfall 50 Precipitation 51 Air Quality Summary-Maximum 8 Hour Carbon Monoxide Concentrations 51 Air Quality Comparisons Summary 52

    NOTE FROM THE EDITOR: The Fairbanks North Star Borough has chosen to move the Community Research Quarterly to a digital format in

    order to help reduce paper use. A hard copy of the Community Research Quarterly can now be purchased for $10 at the Fairbanks North Star Borough, Community Planning Department's front counter.

    NOTE FROM THE EDITOR: These documents contain links to websites outside the Fairbanks North Star Borough Web Server. The Fairbanks

    North Star Borough has no control over the contents posted on any linked external web sites and these sites may have separate terms of use and privacy policies. The inclusion of this web link does not imply endorsement by the Fairbanks North Star Borough of the site, its content, advisers or sponsors.

  • i Spring 2020 Community Research Quarterly

    A SPOTLIGHT

    ON

    COMMUNITY ECONOMIC TRENDS

    SPOTLIGHT SOURCE: Fairbanks forecast for 2020 By Sara Teel, ALASKA ECONOMIC TRENDS, Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce

    Development, Research and Analysis, January 2020, Volume 40, Number 1, ISSN 0160-3345. Read ALASKA ECONOMIC TRENDS at: http://labor.alaska.gov/trends

  • Community Research Quarterly Spring 2020 ii

    2020 JOB FORECAST

    “Fairbanks forecast for 2020”

    By SARA TEEL

    SOURCE: ALASKA ECONOMIC TRENDS, 2020 Jobs Forecast, Fairbanks forecast for 2020, Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section, January 2020, Volume 40, Number 1, ISSN 0160-3345.

  • ALASKA ECONOMIC TRENDS MAGAZINE JANUARY 2020 13

    Fairbanks Forecast for 2020 Modest job growth this year

    2.1%

    0.5%

    1.3%

    -1.8%

    -1.0%

    0%

    -1.0% -1.1%

    0.3% 0.8%

    0% .3%

    ’10 ’11 ’13 ’15 ’17 ’19’12 ’14 ’16 ’18 ’20

    More people have been leaving the borough than moving in

    -4,000

    -2,000

    0

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

    Net migration (in minus out) Overall population change

    By SARA TEEL

    The Fairbanks North Star Borough began add-ing jobs again in 2018 after fi ve years of mostly losses. Employment was fl at in 2019, and we forecast growth will resume in 2020. The expected gain is modest at 300 jobs, or 0.8 percent, with gov- ernment declines depressing the borough’s overall job growth.

    Most industries held steady in 2019 as Alaska began to pull out of the recession, and several made small gains. Most of the growth was in industries tied to the military, oil and gas projects, or the busy fi re- fi ghting season.

    Counter to expectations, noticeable construction growth from preparations to house two squadrons of F-35 Lightning II fi ghter jets at Eielson Air Force Base did not materialize for Fairbanks, as compa- nies from outside the borough held many of those contracts. However, the Fairbanks economy benefi t- ted in other ways from the increased activity, and that will continue in 2020.

    Resumed population growth is one of those ben- efi ts, as the F-35s’ arrival and Fort Wainwright troop returns from deployment will increase the bor- ough’s population in the coming years.

    Population growth set to resume with F-35 arrival, troop returns

    Coinciding with its years of job losses, the borough has lost population in every year but one since 2013,

    Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section

    Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section

    a trend that’s likely to change over the next few years. New F-35 personnel and their families will be- gin to arrive in April, and Eielson expects more than 1,300 additional active duty personnel by 2022. This will also bring in more federal civilian employees, technical consultants, and their families.

    The nearly 2,500 Fort Wainwright soldiers deployed to Iraq last summer and early fall will also begin to return in May or June.

    Tourism, military growth will bolster several industries

    Retail is forecasted to increase by 100 jobs, or 2.1 percent, in 2020. Leisure and hospitality is also expected to gain 100 jobs, or 2.2 percent. Local

    iii Spring 2020 Community Research Quarterly

  • 14 JANUARY 2020 ALASKA ECONOMIC TRENDS MAGAZINE

    Fairbanks Forecast

    Fairbanks’ 65-plus age group has grown signifi cantly each year

    5.4% 5.5% 7.2%

    10.4%

    7.2% 5.8% 6.4% 5.8% 5.7%

    Percent change

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    5.0%

    consumption will increase as the population grows, and tourism in Fairbanks has been strong. Bed tax receipts in the borough have increased every year since 2015 and have jumped 21 percent since 2009.

    The biggest drivers will be the F-35s and the sol- diers’ return from Iraq. In addition to direct job growth, this population increase will boost local businesses such as stores, restaurants, and bars.

    Oil and mining grow mode