A Monaragala Problem for the Rajapakse Regime

8/11/2019 A Monaragala Problem for the Rajapakse Regime

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A Monaragala problem for the RajapakseRegime

by Harim Peiris - on 09/29/2014

pe!"lation mo"nts not j"st in politi!al

!ir!les b"t also in !i#il so!iety of an impen$ing presi$ential ele!tion% early inthe &e' (ear) *he +#a Pro#in!ial ,o"n!il ele!tions% 'hi!h besi$es being

!onstit"tionally re "ire$% 'ere also a testing of the politi!al 'aters by the

Rajapakse A$ministration an$ the res"lts !o"l$ not ha#e been more

$ist"rbing to those in the !orri$ors of po'er)

&o' the Rajapakse presi$en!y has a reele!tion strategy that has been born

of ne!essity% 'hi!h is 'inning the presi$ential ele!tions 'ith almost solely

the inhala #ote) .#en a !"rsory glan!e at the 200 an$ the 2010presi$ential ele!tion res"lts 'o"l$ $emonstrate that Presi$ent Mahin$a

Rajapakse $oes not re!ei#e the #otes of either the M"slim or the *amil

!omm"nities) .#en Minister *hon$aman s ability to $eli#er the estate *amil

#ote is hampere$% by the Presi$ent s la!k of appeal to ethni! an$ religio"s

minorities) or instan!e in the 2010 presi$ential ele!tions in 'hi!h he
http://groundviews.org/2014/09/29/a-monaragala-problem-for-the-rajapakse-regime/http://groundviews.org/2014/09/29/a-monaragala-problem-for-the-rajapakse-regime/http://groundviews.org/author/harim-peiris/http://groundviews.org/images/groundviewslogo.pnghttp://groundviews.org/author/harim-peiris/http://groundviews.org/2014/09/29/a-monaragala-problem-for-the-rajapakse-regime/http://groundviews.org/2014/09/29/a-monaragala-problem-for-the-rajapakse-regime/


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se!"re$ a near 3 national #ote% he lost in the m"lti ethni! &"'ara .liya

Maskeliya ele!torate se!"ring only 543 of the #ote an$ !on!e$ing a h"ge

603 #ote share to 7eneral arath onseka) As the Rajapakse presi$en!y s

in ho"se think tanks ha#e !on!l"$e$% !orre!tly% the Rajapakse bran$

attra!tion is limite$ to its !ore !onstit"en!y of the ethni! inhala ele!torate%both 8"$$hist an$ ,atholi!) *he ,atholi! #ote in ri anka% !"rrently is

splitting along ethni! lines% 'ith *amil ,atholi!s% 'hose #ie's are essentially

arti!"late$ by Mannar 8ishop Rayapp" :oseph% #oting *&A an$ s"pporting

minority rights% 'hile Mal!om ,ar$inal Ranjith% no' ai$e$ by an impen$ing

Papal #isit% keeps inhala ,atholi!s ;rmly 'ithin the orbit of a inhala

nationalist A$ministration)

A!!or$ingly an "npre!e$ente$ Rajapakse thir$ term reele!tion plan re "ires

a prepon$eran!e of the inhala #ote% or abo"t 6 3 or t'o thir$s of the

inhala #ote% 'hi!h is abo"t < 3 of the total ele!torate to s "ee=e o"t a

#i!tory) Hen!e in 200 % Presi$ent Rajapakse 'o"l$ not ha#e 'on e>!ept for

the fa!t that the **. enfor!e$ a boy!ott of the ele!tion by #oters in :a?na

an$ the **. !ontrolle$ @anni) *his time aro"n$ the *&A $oes not nee$ to

say #ery m"!h to see *amils #oting "ite hea#ily against the Rajapakse

A$ministration)

n 2010% in the aftermath of 'inning the 'ar% Presi$ent Rajapakse ha$ no

tro"ble se!"ring the inhala #ote base$ on the 'ar #i!tory% b"t e#en as

Presi$ent Rajapakse !on!e$e$ as far ba!k as 2009% on!e the 'ar is o#er%

people 'ill look at e!onomi! $e#elopment in ret"rn for their politi!al

s"pport) t is essentially in the area of e!onomi! management an$

go#ernan!e that the Rajapakse A$ministration ;n$s itself losing gro"n$among inhala !onstit"en!y) An interesting poll by o!ial n$i!ator in the

$ays pre!e$ing the +#a pro#in!ial polls state$ that more than half the

people in$i!ate$ that they 'ere 'orse o? no' e!onomi!ally than they 'ere

t'o years ago% not'ithstan$ing the rose tinte$ reports of a politi!i=e$

,entral 8ank an$ ,hinese f"n$e$ large s!ale infrastr"!t"re proje!ts 'ith


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little lo!al employment opport"nities% 'ith most of the 'ork being also $one

by ,hinese labo"r)

A 'orry for the Rajapakse A$ministration sho"l$ be its performan!e in the

Monaragala Bistri!t) *he Monaragala $istri!t is the most mono ethni!ally

inhala $istri!t in the !o"ntry) Monaragala is more inhala than e#en thePresi$ent s o'n !onstit"en!y of Hambanthota an$ more inhala than :a?na

is *amil) n re!ent past ele!tions% the +P A se!tore$ h"ge majorities in

Monaragala% polling 13% < 3 an$ 693 respe!ti#ely at the 2009 pro#in!ial

an$ the 2010 general an$ presi$ential ele!tions) &o' Monaragala is a

reasonable pro>y for the inhala #ote% gi#en that it is essentially a mono

ethni!ally inhala $istri!t) 8"t at the re!ent +#a pro#in!ial poll% the +P A

se!"re$ only 3 of the #ote in Monaragala) 8asi!ally 3 of the inhala

#ote 'o"l$ not be s"C!ient in a national ele!tion 'hen the minorities also

!ome o"t an$ #ote% as they $i$ in 8a$"lla an$ the +P A an$ that too after

thro'ing e#erything they ha$ into the e?ort% something that 'o"l$ not be

possible on that s!ale at a national ele!tion) t 'as "ite a ;ght% literally)

Here is ho' the "n$ay *imes politi!al !ol"mn of "n$ay 2 th eptember%

$es!ribes the Rajapakse e?ort that fell far short of 'hat 'as re "ire$)

a'lessness reigne$ in the r"n-"p to the eptember 20 polls) ntimi$ation

an$ th"ggery 'ere rampant) *he Poli!e 'ere blin$ to ne' Befen$er :eeps

sans n"mber plates !logging the o"tba!k of 8a$"lla an$ Monaragala

Bistri!ts) +ni$enti;e$ b"t 'ell-b"ilt men 'ere !an#assing in $i?erent 'ays

for the r"ling party !an$i$ates) @ario"s forms of in$"!ements 'ere o?ere$)

A @ P $istrib"te$ en#elopes 'ith money amo"nting to bet'een Rs

2% 00 an$ Rs %000) Dpposition party s"pporters feare$ to 'alk

into a Poli!e tation) n one instan!e on polls $ay% the Mayor of

8an$ara'ela 'as assa"lte$ insi$e the Poli!e tation by three

7o#ernment politi!ians) *he DC!er-in-,harge of this hea$ "arters

station 'as transferre$ for failing to pre#ent the in!i$ent) Ho'e#er%


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no a!tion so far seems to ha#e been taken on the assailants) Polls

la's 'ere #iolate$ 'ith imp"nity) *he Polls an$ Poli!e ,hiefs 'ere

b"!k-passing !omplaints from those 'ho so"ght a free an$ fair

poll)E

f Presi$ent Rajapakse se!"res anything less than t'o thir$s F2/5G of theinhala ele!torate an$ ass"ming the minorities !ome o"t an$ #ote% the

"npre!e$ente$ thir$ Rajapakse term may be ele!torally "ite $iC!"lt) *he

opposition has the moment"m !oming o"t of the +#a ele!tion) 8"t they

still nee$ to !reate a broa$ opposition front an$ a minim"m !ommon

opposition program for a !ommon opposition !an$i$ate to take on Presi$ent

Rajapakse) *he presi$ent 'ill still 'in reele!tion if the opposition is $i#i$e$%

'ith a serio"s three or fo"r person ra!e) n the +#a ele!tion% the +P A ag

!arrier 'as a presi$ential nephe'% 'hile at a presi$ential ele!tion it 'ill be

the presi$ent himself) *he @enerable obitha *hera has $one a lot of the

gro"n$ 'ork for a !ommon opposition front% if the +&P has the politi!al

imagination to see it an$ more importantly the reali=ation that it re "ires a

broa$ front to 'in the ele!tions) et s not forget the fa!t% the +&P $i$ 'ell in

+#a% b"t it still $i$ not 'in% the +P A $i$) Iitho"t a broa$ opposition front%

that is still the most likely s!enario in a presi$ential ele!tion as 'ell)

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A Monaragala Problem for the Rajapakse Regime