Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

A Framework for International A Framework for International

Scenario Analysis of Europe’s Water Scenario Analysis of Europe’s Water

FuturesFutures

Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research

University of Kassel, Germany

EC Workshop on European Water Scenarios Brussels 30 June 2003

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Some Key Questions Some Key Questions

• What should be the goals of European water scenarios?

• What types of scenarios should be developed?

• How should the scenarios be developed and be brought into the policy process?

• How does the knowledge base need to be improved in order to develop rich and useful scenarios?

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Different Parts of Europe: Different Water Situation

Water Stress (1995) (Withdrawals to Availability Ratio)

WaterCalculations:WaterGAPSource:UNESCO World Water Assessment

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Different Parts of Europe: Different Water Needs Water Withdrawals (1995)

Quelle: WaterGAP, 2000

Percent of total water withdrawals

Domestic Agriculture

Industry

Calculations: WaterGAPSource: UNESCO World Water Assessment

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Changing Water NeedsChange in Withdrawals 1995 to

2025

Increase %Decrease %

Calculations:WaterGAPSource: World Water Council et alWater & Climate Dialogue

IPCC A2 Scenario

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Impact of Climate Change Change in Runoff (Current to 2070s)Change in Runoff (Current to 2070s)

Calculations:Calculations:WaterGAP ModelWaterGAP ModelClimate Scenario:Climate Scenario:Hadley ModelHadley Model

small change

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Goals for a Goals for a European Water Futures ProjectEuropean Water Futures Project

Develop policy-relevant and plausible scenarios that provide a vision for Europe‘s water for the next 50 years.

The scenarios should:• take into account the special characteristics of water resources in different parts of Europe, in different sectors • be developed with stakeholders & decision makers • assess sustainability of European water resources• identify unexpected developments, thresholds, emerging problems• explore possible solutions to current and emerging problems• advance the state of scientific understanding, and ...• be incorporated in policymaking

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Some Key Questions Some Key Questions

• What should be the goals of European water scenarios?

• What types of scenarios should be developed?

• How should the scenarios be developed and be brought into the policy process?

• How does the knowledge base need to be improved in order to develop rich and useful scenarios?

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Some Key Questions Some Key Questions

• What should be the goals of European water scenarios?

• What types of scenarios should be developed?

• How should the scenarios be developed and be brought into the policy process?

• How does the knowledge base need to be improved in order to develop rich and useful scenarios?

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

What Types of Scenarios are Needed What Types of Scenarios are Needed for for

European Water Futures?European Water Futures?

Qualitative Scenarios

Typically in form of storylines – Narrative description of scenario, highlighting main features, and relationship between driving forces and main features.

Qualitative Quantitative

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

ExampleExample Storyline – World Water Vision Storyline – World Water Vision ScenariosScenarios Business as Usual (to 2025)Business as Usual (to 2025)

Per capita material and energy consumption increase as lifestyles throughout the world become more like those in the North… Income inequality between and within rich and poor countries increases tensions, but conflicts over social issues that do occur remain largely within national boundaries. … In some areas with limited water and rapid population growth, the development of water infrastructure lags behind population growth, and the number of people without access to safe water increases. In most parts of the world, however, economic growth, combined with technological improvements, result in better living conditions, including increased access to safe drinking water…

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Model

Changed

model inputs

Changed

model outputs

Quantitative Scenarios

•Numerical information

•Commonly computed with models

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Example of Quantitative ScenarioWater Stress 2025 IPCC A2 Scenario WaterGAP Calculations

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Qualitative ScenariosDisadvantages: Arbitrary (?), tough to identify/test assumptions; do not

provide numerical information.

Advantages: Understandable/interesting (communicate with stakeholders, policymakers), represent many views, involve many different interests.

Advantages/Disadvantages

Quantitative ScenariosDisadvantages: Models have limited view of world; not transparent;

exactness gives illusion of certainty. Advantages: Scientifically-defensible (?); provide numerical

information; can identify underlying assumptions, can test consistency.

Conclusion:Develop both qualitative and quantitative scenarios!

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

European Modeling

What Types of Scenarios are Needed What Types of Scenarios are Needed for for

European Water Futures?European Water Futures? Not only qualitative/quantitative, Not only qualitative/quantitative,

but also multi-scale but also multi-scale

Regional/River Basin Modeling

European Scenarios

Regional Scenarios

• Data for validationData for validation• Process Process parameterizationparameterization

BoundarBoundary y conditioconditionsns

BoundarBoundary y conditioconditionsns

River River basin basin detail detail

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Some Key Questions Some Key Questions

• What should be the goals of European water scenarios?

• What types of scenarios should be developed?

• How should the scenarios be developed and be brought into the policy process?

• How does the knowledge base need to be improved in order to develop rich and useful scenarios?

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Some Key Questions Some Key Questions

• What should be the goals of European water scenarios?

• What types of scenarios should be developed?

• How should the scenarios be developed and be brought into the policy process?

• How does the knowledge base need to be improved in order to develop rich and useful scenarios?

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

How to Develop Scenarios?How to Develop Scenarios?Example from Contemporary Example from Contemporary

Assessments Assessments e.g. World Water Vision Scenarios e.g. World Water Vision Scenarios

(2000)(2000)

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

(6) Panel: revises storylines

(7) General review of scenarios

(5) Modeling groups: quantify

scenarios

(9) Publication & distribution

(8) Team & Panel: final revision of

scenarios

How Should the Scenarios be Developed?

SAS (Story and Simulation) Approach

(2) Team: proposes goals

and outline

Repeat Steps

(3) Panel: revises outline & drafts

zero order storylines

(1) Establish scenario team,

(1) Establish scenario team, scenario panel

(4) Team: quantifies driving

forces

(4) Team: quantifies driving

forces

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Summing Up the “SAS” Summing Up the “SAS” Qualitative/Quantitative Approach Qualitative/Quantitative Approach

1. “Open” approach → Stakeholders involved in core activities, all interested parties can contribute to the scenarios

2. Iterative process → Enhances involvement & interaction between writers, experts, modelers, & stakeholders

3. Combines advantages of qualitative and quantitative scenarios.

Qualitative -- understandable, represent many views, communicate with policymakers & stakeholders  

Quantitative -- consistency check of assumptions of qualitative scenarios, provide quantitative data, scientifically-defensible

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

• By developing not only quantitative but also qualitative scenarios

• By participation of stakeholders & policy advisors in scenario development

• After scenarios are developed By organizing “policy exercises”, and other direct contact with policymakers & stakeholders

How Should the Scenarios be Brought into the Policy Process?

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Some Key Questions Some Key Questions

• What should be the goals of European water scenarios?

• What types of scenarios should be developed?

• How should the scenarios be developed and be brought into the policy process?

• How does the knowledge base need to be improved in order to develop rich and useful scenarios?

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Some Key Questions Some Key Questions

• What should be the goals of European water scenarios?

• What types of scenarios should be developed?

• How should the scenarios be developed and be brought into the policy process?

• How does the knowledge base need to be improved in order to develop rich and useful scenarios?

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Example of weak knowledge base:Example of weak knowledge base:Net irrigation requirements (1995)Net irrigation requirements (1995)

Source: WaterGAP model

mm per year

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Water Demand and Use (current and future)• Household• Manufacturing • Electrical power production• Irrigation & other agriculture

How Does the Knowledge Base Need to be Improved?

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Water Availability (current and future)• Storage • Routing• Climate variability• Climate change • Drought prediction

How Does the Knowledge Base Need to be Improved?

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Global Connections• Impact of global climate change – regional

climate modeling.• Impact of global industrial trade on European

water resources.• Impact of global food trade on European

water resources (virtual water).

How Does the Knowledge Base Need to be Improved?

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Mitigation and Adaptation • Water pricing • Water storage and distribution• Conjunctive use of surface and groundwater• Wastewater control, water quality and

ecosystem protection• Restoration of water quality and ecosystems • ...

How Does the Knowledge Base Need to be Improved?

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Governance and Participation in Water Resource Development

and Water Protection • Water rights • The role of government institutions• The role of private and business institutions• The role of civil society • The role of scientists and other experts

How Does the Knowledge Base Need to be Improved?

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Other Important Background Trends• Demographic trends• Trends in income and its distribution• Technological development• Institutional changes

How Does the Knowledge Base Need to be Improved?

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

Summary

• Develop water scenarios for Europe that are ... policy-relevant, advance scientific state-of-the-art qualitative & quantitative multi-scale

• Use an „open“ and iterative approach to develop the scenarios involvement/interaction of stakeholders & experts

• Build up the knowledge base in many areas.

• Incorporate the scenarios in the policy-process.

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___

A Framework for International A Framework for International

Scenario Analysis of Europe’s Water Scenario Analysis of Europe’s Water

FuturesFutures

Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research

University of Kassel, Germany

EC Workshop on European Water Scenarios Brussels 30 June 2003

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Germany (CESR)) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ___