A country in peril:domestic and global energy demand &

threat to the environment

Fabby TumiwaInstitute for Essential Services Reform

Indonesia

Indonesia (de)Forest(ation)

Sumber: SDSU & Dephut-

MODIS Images, 2007

• Forest Cover: 162 mil ha (1950) 94 mil (2003)

• Destructive Forest: 42 mil ha (2003)• People live in forest: 48 mil• Deforestation and forest degradation rate:

1.1-2.6 mil ha/ year

What is the causes?

• Population: 97 mil (1961), 215 mil (2003)

• Infrastructure development

• Land use change: agriculture, plantation, mining

• Land clearing

• Illegal logging

Coal Resources

Coal Production Target

• Coal production target:– 2010: 240 - 260 million ton– 2015: 280 - 300 million ton– 2020: 320 - 350 million ton– 2025: 370 million ton

• Driver:– Domestic demand growth: 9,17 mil ton/yr

• Domestic demand in 2020: 170 mil ton• Domestic demand in 2025: 220 mil ton

– International demand growth: 3,8 mil ton/yr

Coal Production and Consumption

Source: APBI-ICMA

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Coal reserves and production

1000 Mt

World production 2006: 5,356 Mt (hard coal)967 Mt (lignite)

Source: WEC 2007/BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007Analysis LBST 2007

Lignite ReservesSubbituminous Coal ReservesBituminous Coal Reserves

depletion rate: 2.5% p.yr.

1000 Mt

Hard coal production

ReservesProduction

Agrofuel

• 70% of the oil palm plantations were planted on land that formally fell within Indonesia’s forest estate between 1982 and 1999. This totaled close to 2.2 million ha of forest land

• fragmentation of high conservation value forests (HCVF)

• loss of forest ecological functions and socioeconomic benefits for local people.

Demand for Agrofuels

• Increased global demand for palm oil to be used for bio-fuels

• EU (European Union) target of 5.75% of energy from renewable sources by 2012

• US (United States) administration has pledged to increase the use of renewable fuels from 7.5 billion gallons in 2012 to 35 billion gallons in 2017

• Government of Indonesia has promoted a plan to use oil palm based biodiesel to reduce dependency on fossil fuels by 10% for 2010 and 25% by 2025

• Change in mega plan (1.8 million ha new plantation) at the border of Kalimantan (Heart of Borneo eco-region)

Mega Oil Palm Project

Conclusion

• Indonesia environment is in peril due to increasing fossil and agrofuel demand from domestic and the world, which is unsustainable.

• This pattern must be changed, driver of ecological destruction must be addressed both in domestic and international level.

World Energy Demand Scenario (Reff)Source: IEA WEO 2008