17 Energy (supplies, policy, economics, forecasts)

95/06661 X-ray diffraction of stacked aromatic molecules revisited: Can one determine allphatiji carbon abundance from a diffraction peak related to Intermolecular aromatlc Interactlons? Ebert, L. B. Fuel Sci. TechnoL Int., 1995, 13, (7), 941-944. The validity of the approach used by D.L. Wertz and M. Bissell (1994) for analyzing coal structures with X-ray diffraction is questioned by the author. The critical issue with the approach concerns the analytical treat- ment of X-my intensities arising from the organic matter of the coal. There is no reason for relating the content of aliphatic materials in a coal to a diffraction peak arising from the intermolecular interaction of aromatic materials.

17 ENERGY

Supplies, Policy, Economics, Forecasts

95106662 Asla and the world energy perspectives Abbas, A. Revue de I’Energie, Jul.-Sep. 1995, (470), 466-468. (In French) The strong link between economic growth and energy consumption allows us to estimate the future world energy consumption under two different economic growth scenarios. Taking the different energy infrastructures lead-times mto account and using a simple power generation model, one discovers the important role of oil from the Gulf. Without attaining the same precision, the same energy model can be applied to Asia alone. The conclusions are similar, but more pronounced. Strong economic growth will provoke a strong increase in energy demand. To satisfy this demand, Asia will have to rely heavily on oil supply from the Gulf. Although the gas industry will also become an important energy actor in Asia, its realisa- tion is often more difficult due to the remoteness of the gas supplies.

95106663 Asian energy yearbook 1995 The Petroleum Economisiitd., PO Box 105, 25131 Ironmonger Row,

London EClV 3PN, f60.00, 1995.

96106664 Canadian energy supply and demand 1993-2010 National Energy Board, Fairview Bldg., 311-&h Avenue SW, Calgary,

Alberta, Canada T2P 3H2, 69 pp.

95/06665 Chlna’a energy challenges Lagrange, M. P. Revue de I’Energie, Jul.-Sep. 1995, (470), 474-484. (In French) The accelerated growth China is witnessing (an average 8.5% since 1978), is generating an energy demand that exceed the limits of the existing energy infrastructures. The fact that this growth concerns a population of 1.2 billion inhabitants with a lifestyle that is still very low gives a measure of the country’s development potential. To meet this energy demand, China has to invest heavily and quickly, mainly in electric power plant and refinery construction, coal and petroleum product transport, and oil pros- pectin . The author analyzes China’s resources in each of the energy sec- tors, f a ong with the foreseeable medium-term demand and the investment programmes planned by the government.

95106686 China: Its energy potential The Petroleum Economist Ltd~sP~O Box 105, 25131 Ironmonger Row,

London EC1 V 3PN, fllS.00, 1995.

95106687 Comparatlve economlcr of natural gas and electrl- cal transport Hafner, M. and Nogaret, E. Revue de I’Energie, May 1995, (468), 322-337. (In French) Development of gas-fueled electric power plants begs the question of where these plants should be located. Must thev necessarilv all be built near where tile electricity is to be consumed, or nii

B ht it in certain cases be

advantageous to build them nearer the source gas lelds and then transport the electricity, instead, to the consumption site? Today, large quantities of energy can in fact be transported either by very high-tension electric lines or by gas pipe lines. Transport by electricity lines can be thriftier than gas pipe line for energies of the order of one to four million tons oil equivalent. The advantage of one option over the other is highly sensitive to the dis- count rate (a low rate being very favourable to transport of electricity), while the distance covered hardly affects the relative advantages at all. States that a detailed study is needed for each case.

95/06606 The concept of sustalnable Islands: Cleaner pro- ductlon, lnduatrlal ecology and the network paradlgm as pre- condltlons for regional sustainable development Wallner, H. P. and Narodoslawsky, M. 167-171.

J. Cleaner Prod, 1994, 2, (3),

The paper introduces a bottom-up a called the Island approach. The g

preach towards sustainability which is asic assumption of ‘Islands of Sus-

tainability’ is that development towards sustainability can be introduced starting from small sustainable regions. An Island is an area where sus- tainability is rcachd locally. Ke.y points to create a sustainable region are communication activities, such as exchange of matter, energy information, culture, ca

8 ital and persons within the regional network and with the envi-

ronment. ne of the main theses is that sustainability is linked to the complexity of the regional network.

95lO6689 Declslon-making factors In the power sector Gouni, L. Revue de I’Energie, Jun. 1995, (469), 395-402. (In French) Driven by the progress in economics. decision-making techniaues have developed sin& the Second World War, but their use leas not t&en fully mastered. Geopolitical and social changes are now underscoring these weaknesses more and more. One such weakness stems from the di&ulty there is in taking the rationality of the human mind into account at the same time as the people’s conflictual relations with their partners, whether between individuals, social groups, or nations. Referring to the example of the energy sector, the author raises questions about the myths that sustain our hopes but which are going to do much harm to the co&g generation. Observing the all-too-feeble presence of the end consumer in what is called the ‘markit forces’ he hopes-for a return to a more balanced situation. Also addresses the paradox of ‘regulated competition’, with its multitude of possibilities.

95106690 Decomposition methodology In lndustrlal energy demand analysis Ang, B. W. Energy, Nov. 1995, 20, (ll), 1081-1095. The authors discuss some methodological and application issues related to decomposing national industrial energy consumption into changes associ- ated with aggregate industrial production level, productidn structure and sectoral energy intensity. Past studies are classified and reviewed with respect to study scope and decomposition technique. A framework for decomposition method formulation which incorporates three different approaches is presented. Several specific methods are described and their applications are illustrated with an example. Relevant application issues, such as method selection, periodwise vs time-series decomposition, signifi- cance of levels of sector disaggregation, and result interpretation are discussed.

95106691 Decompoaltlon of the energy-intensity Index wlth appllcatlon for the Korean manufacturlna Industry Choi, K. H. et al., Energy, Sep. 1995, 20, (9i 835-842.. Presents a method for decomposing industrial energy demand using the Divisia approach. This method involves decomposition of the aggregate energy-intensity index measured in terms of energy consumption per unit output. The factors considered are changes in production structure and sectorial ener y intensities is b

intensities. The effect associated with sectoral energy rther decomoosed into those associated with fuel substitu-

tion and real energy intensihes. The authors have applied the methodology to data of the Korean manufacturing industry. The results obtained show that increases in aggregate intensity for total energy consumption since 1988 are due orimarilv to the effect of increased real enerev intensities. The wntributibns fro& structural changes and interfuel sub:iitution were relatively small.

95106692 Does the European Commlaslon know beat? Shields, H. J. Pet. Review, Oct. 1995, 49, (585), 452-454. The European Commission is setting out arguments in support of an energy policy for the countries of the European Union. However such a policy is far from commanding universal support. The author H.J. Shields, Manag- ing Director, Shell Italia SpA, discusses the policy in Europe.

95106693 countries

EdF strategic approach to emerging Asian

Blanc, H. C. French)

Revue de I’Energie, Jul.-Sep. 1995, (470), 515-517. (In

With its teeming, active population, its economic dynamism, and its con- siderable needs, particularly in the form of energy infrastructures, today’s Asian continent is generating at least half the world’s market for electrical investment, production, and distribution goods. Asia thus has a role to play as an engine of world economic development, just at a time when the growth of demand for electricity has become durably stagnant in western Europe, and therefore in France. A major electric company like Electricite de France is therefore driven to practice all its various professions in the main countries of Asia, and also act as a longterm investor-partner, because these countries have the highest potential over the coming 20 years.

472 Fuel and Energy Abstracts November 1995