8thNOAATBPGWorkshopKansasCity,MOApril25-26,2017RoundupPresentation

HazardousWeatherTestbed(HWT)AlanGerard(NSSL),GabeGarfield(CIMMS/NWS),IsraelJirak (SPC)

andStevenWeiss(SPC)

HazardousWeatherTestbedWherepractitionersandresearchersworktogethertoenhancecommunitycollaborationandacceleratethetransferofresearchtooperations…

LocalNWSForecastOffice(OUN):Regionalresponsibility

NCEPStormPredictionCenter(SPC):NationwideResponsibility

ExperimentalWarningProgram

Detection/predictionofhazardousweathereventsuptoseveralhours

inadvance

Forecasting

Research

Satellite-based

Research

Warning

Research

ExperimentalForecastProgram

Predictionofhazardousweathereventsfromafewhourstoaweek

inadvance

FY16HighlightsHWT

• ExperimentalForecastProgram(1)1. Developedandtestedmulti-ensemble(SREFandSSEO)based

calibratedprobabilistichazard-typeguidance(tornado,hail,wind)forhigh-temporalresolutionseverestormoutlooks(FACETs)

2. ProvidesupportforexperimentalSPCshort-termupdatedoutlooks

May10Prob.TornadoMay16Prob.WindMay17Prob.Hail

• ExperimentalForecastProgram(2)1. DevelopedandTestedCommunityLeveragedUnifiedEnsemble

(CLUE) toinformupcomingoperationalNOAA/EMCconvection-allowingmodel(CAM)ensemblesystemdesign

2. 65memberscontributedbyOU/CAPS,NSSL,NCAR,SPC,GSD,UNDwithassistancefromEMCandDTC

3. AlignedwithUCARAdvisoryCommitteerecommendationforevidence-baseddecisionmakingforNOAAmodelplans

CLUEExamplesof2ControlledExperiments

NumberofEnsembleMembers

Radarvs.No-RadarAssimilation

FractionsSkillScoreFractionsSkillScore

Benefitofadditionalmembersdiminishedwithensemblesize

Benefitofradarassimilationlastedthrough15hrs

• ExperimentalForecastProgram(3)1. ControlledexperimentcomparisonbetweenSSEO,CLUEMixedCore

(ARWandNMMB),NCAREnKF,andCAPSEnKFensembles2. Againin2016HWT,SSEOwasasgoodorbetterthanmoreformal

CAMensembles=>SSEOisbaselineforfuturedevelopment3. EMChasdevelopedoperationalversionofSSEOthatwillbe

implementedinSeptember2017FractionsSkillScore

Reflectivity>40dBZ verificationbyforecasthourduringHWT

HourlyReflectivityForecastVerification

SubjectiveRatingsofHourlyMaxFieldUtility

SSEO

FY16TransitionMetricsHWT

• ExperimentalForecastProgramMajorTestsConducted Transitionedto

OperationsRecommendedforTransitiontoOperations

AdvancedtoExperimentalTestingPhase

RejectedforFurtherTesting

DecisionPendingorDeferredonAdvancement

Updated4-hrOutlooksforIndividualSevereHazards

X

CommunityLeveragedUnifiedEnsemble(CLUE)

X

CLUEResult:SSEOPerformance

X

CLUEResult:DynamicCoreTesting

X

CLUEResult:RadarDataAssimilation

X

CLUEResult:Number ofEnsembleMembers

X

NAMRR andHRRRComparison

X

HailSizeGuidance X

MicrophysicsParam. X

EnsembleSensitivity X3-DCAMVisualization XMPASConvection-AllowingOutput

X

Totals 0 2 5 1 4

FY17ActivitiesHWT

• ExperimentalForecastProgram May 1- June 2, 2017 (5 weeks) Continued focus on evaluating & utilizing CAMs/CAM ensembles

to create experimental high-temporal resolution severe weather outlooks (FACETs, WoF, Weather-Ready Nation)

Coordinated CAM ensemble experiments with 81 model runs contributed from community collaborators (CLUE system)

• NSSL, OU & CAPS, ESRL-GSD, NCAR, GFDL with assistance from SPC, EMC and DTC

• Enable controlled sensitivity tests to inform evidence-based decision making in design of operational HREF at EMC (FY17)

– Consistent with UCAR/UMAC External Review Recommendations for NOAA, NCEP and emerging EMC model development process

• Community-LeveragedUnifiedEnsemble(CLUE)Configuration– 81Totalmembers:OU/CAPS36,NSSL15,NCAR10,OU10,GSD9,GFDL/EMC1– WRF3.8.1,3kmgrid-spacing,CONUSdomain,51verticallevels,UPPoutputfields

• Experiments– Multi-Corevs.SingleCore– Twoensembleswillbecompared.Oneusing5ARWand5

NMMBmembersandoneusing10ARWmembers.– PhysicsPerturbations- Threeensembleswithwith perturbedICs/LBCsarecompared.One

eachwithsinglephysics,mixedphysics,singlephysicswithstochasticperturbations.– GSDRadarvs.CAPSRadar– Twomembersareconfiguredidentically,exceptonewilluse

GSD’smethodforradarDAandonewilluseCAPSmethod.– DataAssimilation– MultipleDAmethodswillbecompared:GSI-EnKF,NCAR-EnKF,CAPS-

EnKF,HRRRE-EnKF,andCAPS-3DVAR.– OperationalHRRRvs.ParallelHRRR– ComparisonaspartofupcomingEMCscience

evaluation– 3kmFV3InitialTesting- TwoexperimentalversionsofFV3(GFDL/EMC;OU-CAPS)at

convection-allowingscaleswillbeexamined.– MicrophysicsSensitivities– Theimpactfromdifferentmicrophysicalparameterizationson

theresultingconvectivestormforecastswillbeexamined.– SPCSSEOvs.EMCHREFv2-SSEO– ThenewEMCHREFv2-SSEOwillbecomparedtothe

baselineSPCSSEOpriortoplannedoperationalimplementationoftheHREFv2.

FY16HighlightsHWT

• ExperimentalWarningProgram– ProbabilisticHazardsInformationwithHazardServicesExperiment

• FirstforayintogeneratingPHIwithAWIPS2HazardServices.• InvolvedNWSforecasters,NSSL,GSD,MDL,WDTD,andhumanfactorsexperts.• Manysoftwareissuesdiscoveredandfixed.

– ProbabilisticHazardsInformationExperiment• Includedemergencymanagersand,forthefirsttime,broadcastmeteorologists

intotheexperiment• Diversegroupofresearchersincludingnumeroussocialscientists(OU,Universityof

Akron,HowardUniversity,CaliforniaUniv.ofPennsylvania)• Importanceoftimingandcontinuousflowofinformation

– HydrologyExperiment• IntegratedwithHMTFFAIRexperiment• NWSWFOandRFCparticipants• Utilizedexperimentaltechniquestogeneratewarningsfor

severalflashfloodevents,includingWVflashflood

FY16TransitionMetricsHWT

MajorTestsConducted TransitionedtoOperations

RecommendedforTransitiontoOperations

AdvancedtoExperimentalTestingPhase

RejectedforFurtherTesting

DecisionPendingorDeferred

ProbabilisticHazardInformationPrototypetool X

ProbabilisticLightningInformation X

FLASHHydrologicmodelingproducts X

HazardSimplificationbasedconvectivetextproducts*

X

CIMSSProbSevere Guidance X

PHI–HazardServicesTool X

Totals 1 1 3 0 1

*- testingresultsprovidedtoNWSAFS,whointegratedintoHazSimp project.

FY17ActivitiesHWT

• ExperimentalWarningProgram– PHI- HazardsServicesExperiment

• March20– April18• 3weeks

– PHI- PrototypeExperiment• May8– June9• 3weeks

– GOES-RandJPSSProvingGroundExperiment• June19– July21• 4weeks

BestPractices/LessonsLearnedHWT

• Earlycommunity/stakeholdercollaborationandengagementisakey Mosteffectivewhenpartnersworktogetherontopicsofmutualinterest Forecasters,modeldevelopers,researchers,emergencymanagers,broadcasters

• Closeinteractionbetweenresearchers,forecasters,andtraininggroupsarecriticaltoR2O

Researchersbetterunderstandreal-worldforecastingandworkloadchallenges Forecastersprovidefeedbackonnext-generationtoolsandbetterunderstand

researchchallenges Traininggroupsensuremoreeffectivetransitiontooperationalpractices

• Real-timeforecastexperimentsareconductedinsimulatedoperationalenvironments

Replicatesoperationalchallengeswithreal-worldrequirementsandconstraints Nooneknowstheforecast“answer”aheadoftime

• ProjecttestingandR2Oisanincrementalprocessovermultipleyearsthatbuildsuponresultsfrompriorexperiments

SupplementalSlides

HistoryTimeline– SelectedMilestones

1970s– 1990s:CultureofCollaborationestablishedbetweenNSSLandthelocalWFO.- Dopplerradardemonstrations,data

collection/forecastingforfieldprograms,experimentalmodeling.

- ExperimentalForecastingFacility

1997:SPCmovesfromKansasCitytoNorman.

2000-01:SpringProgramformalized.- DecisionmadetofocusonSPC-specificforecast

problems.- VisitingscientistfromEMCco-fundedbyNSSL

andSPChelpedjump-startinter-agencyworkingrelationships

2003-04:Initialtestingof“storm-scalemodels”.- Modelswithhighenough

resolutiontoexplicitlydepictconvectivestorms.

- Forecastersexcited:“Aturningpointintheuseofmodeloutput”

- EMCstartsyear-roundrunsforSPCandincludesstorm-scalemodelsin5-10yearproduction-suiteplans.

2006:NSSLandSPCmovetotheNWCandtheHWTiscreated.

2007-present:Focusonusingstorm-scalemodelsandensembles.- Innovativedataminingand

visualizationtechniques.- NumerousR2OandO2R

successes.- DevelopmentofCLUEto

informevidence-basedHREFdevelopment.

NOAAHazardousWeatherTestbed

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NSF OAR OAR + Partner $$ NWS

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HWT Engagement

Directed $

HWTFundedGrantProjects• NOAA/NWS:Round1ofResearchtoOperationsInitiative(NOAA-NWS-NWSPO-

2015-2004117)– HWTEFPprojects:– InformationExtractionandVerificationofNumericalWeatherPredictionforSevereWeather

ForecastingbyJirak (SPC),Melick (CIMMS/SPC),Brooks(NSSL),andPyle(EMC)– ImprovementofConvective/SevereWeatherPredictionthroughanIntegrativeAnalysisof

WRFSimulationsandNEXRAD/GOESObservationsovertheCONUSbyDong,Kennedy,andGilmore(UND)

– TestandEvaluationofRapidPost-ProcessingandInformationExtractionFromLargeConvectionAllowingEnsemblesAppliedto0-3hrTornadoOutlooksbyCorreia (CIMMS/SPC),LaDue (OU/CAPS),Karstens,Wheatley,andKnopfmeier (allCIMMS/NSSL)

• NOAA/OAR:OfficeofWeatherandAirQualityHazardousWeatherandHydrometeorologyTestbedCompetitions (NOAA-OAR-OWAQ-2015-2004230)–HWTEFPprojects:

– DevelopingandEvaluatingGSI-basedEnKF-Variational HybridDataAssimilationforNCEPNAMRRtoImproveConvection-AllowingHazardousWeatherForecastbyWang(OU),Carley(EMC)DiMego (EMC),Jirak andWeiss(SPC),Kain andClark(NSSL)

– Convection-PermittingEnsembleForecastSystemforPredictionofExtremeWeatherbyRomine,Schwartz,andSobash (allNCAR),andConiglio (NSSL)

– InformationExtractionandVerificationofConvection-AllowingModelsforSevereHailForecastingbyJirak (SPC)andMelick (CIMMS/SPC)

– ImprovingInitialConditionsandtheirPerturbationsthroughEnsemble-BasedDataAssimilationforOptimizedStorm-ScaleEnsemblePredictioninSupportofHWTSevereWeatherForecastingbyXue,Kong,Jung,andSnook(allOU/CAPS)

HWTFundedGrantProjects• NOAA/OAR:OfficeofWeatherandAirQualityInternalResearchtoOperations

TransitionCompetitions (NOAA-OAR-OWAQ-2015-2004230)– HWTproject:– ProbabilityofWhat?UnderstandingandConveyingUncertaintyThroughProbabilistic

HazardServicesbyRothfusz,Gurley,andBrooks(NSSL),Hansen(GSD),Manross(CIRA/GSD),SchneiderandJirak (SPC),SmithandKarstens (CIMMS/NSSL),Stumpf(CIMMS/MDL),Smith(MDL),Novak(WPC),Ripberger andSilva(OU),andLing(U.Akron)

• NOAA/OAR::OfficeofWeatherandAirQualityJointTechnologyTransferInitiative(NOAA-OAR-OWAQ-2016-2004824)– HWTEFPProjects:

– DevelopmentandImplementationofProbabilisticHailForecastProductsusingMulti-MomentMicrophysicsandMachineLearningAlgorithmsbySnook,Xue,JungandMcGovern(OU)

– AssessingtheImpactofAssimilatingGround-BasedInfraredRadiometerDataintoConvective-ScaleNumericalWeatherPredictionModelsbyWagnerandOtkin(CIMSS/UW),Jones(CIMMS/OU)andTurner(GSD)

– DevelopmentofNWSconvectivescaleensembleforecastingcapabilitythroughimprovingGSI-basedhybridensemble-variational dataassimilationandevaluatingthemulti-dynamiccoreapproach byWang(OU),Dowell,Benjamin,WhitakerandAlexander(GSD),CarleyandDiMego (EMC),WeissandJirak (SPC),andClark(NSSL)

HWTFundedGrantProjects• NOAA/NWS:NextRoundofResearchtoOperationsInitiative:NGGPSand

HFIP(NOAA-NWS-NWSPO-2016-2004713)– HWTEFPproject:– InformationExtractionandVerificationofConvection-AllowingModelsforTornado

ForecastingbyJirak (SPC),Melick (CIMMS/SPC),Brooks(NSSL),andPyle(EMC)