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5G outlook and verticals

5G in 2020… or before?

Mobile Networks Forum

17 November 2016

5G development and timetable

5G services as soon as 2018?

Copyright © IDATE 2016, 3

Mobile generations: timeline, standards and services

~1980 ~1990 ~2000 ~2010 ~2020

Generations

Timeline

Standards & radio interfaces

NMT, AMPS,

TACSGSM,

IS-95, PDC

WCDMA, CDMA 2000,

TD-SCDMA

LTE 5G-NR

Services & characteristics

Voice + SMS,

low-speed data+ High-speed data

+ Broadband data,

Low latency

Gigabit data,

IoT, verticals,

Ultra-low latency,

security

Key technologies

Analog technology,

Mobility management

Digital technology,

International roaming,

SIM card, packed data

Circuit & packet switched

WCDMAFull-IP,

OFDMA

SDN/NFV,

Network slicing, massive

MIMO, mmWave,

Licensed & unlicensed

spectrum…

1GMobile telephony

2GDigital mobile telephony

3GMobile data

4GMobile broadband

5GGigabit wireless services &

digitisation of the economy


5G benefits and timetableWhat will 5G bring?

A unique infrastructure to meet all needs

A new flexible & programmable radio interface able to address diverse

requirements, reduced latency (1 ms)

Very high throughputs and capacity, use of spectrum >6GHz

Evolved Mobile BroadBand (eMBB): higher throughputs

Massive Machine Type Communication: capability to support a very

important number of connections of objects with limited battery life and

low cost requirements. Smart building, logistics, tracking and fleet

management

Critical Machine Type Communication: very small latencies and

reliability. Traffic safety and control, industrial applications and control,

remote manufacturing, training, surgery

When?

Before 2020: tests, limited commercial services (fixed wireless access)

2020: introduction of first real 5G services with (improved MIMO, more

carrier aggregation, …)

2025: all functionalities deployed, significant mmWave deployments

3 main use cases of 5G and their specific requirements

Source: SK Telecom

Source: China Academy of telecommunication Technology


Requirements before standardizing: full availability, latency, reliability

• Improved throughputs but also about higher mobility (up to

500 km/h), lower energy efficiency, improved latency in the

range of 1 ms

• Flexibility : operation on any kind of spectrum (low/high/very

high)

• Virtualization of network functions and SDR to foster

convergence of multiple Radio Access Technologies, either

3GPP based or not (such as WiFi)

• Tight integration with 4G, thanks to an adaptive air interface

with both backward and forward compatibility

• Network architecture to go beyond the traditional cellular

architecture with ultra densified networks, user equipment

serving as relays, broadcast communication …

Performance objectives for 5G


5G development: standardization is a long process

3GPP

Several players with different interest are involved

Regulation authorities and standardization bodies

Mobile Network operators and service providers

Equipment (infrastructure and terminals) and software vendors

A roadmap aligned on the ITU-R deadline for recognition as a an

International Mobile Telecommunication system. Deadline set for 2019

A phased development approach must secure early 5G deployments

around 2020

Initial focus on TDD, frequency bands between 6 and 40 GHz with LTE

air interface, demonstration at Winter Olympics game in South Korea in

2018 and first commercial deployments in 2020

In practice first 5G commercial networks should still be operated on

frequencies bellow 6 GHz. Higher frequencies will be harnessed later on

between 2020 and 2030 (except fixed wireless access)

Phase 1: Release 15, phase 2 (full IMT 2020, NR): Release 16

Source: 3GPP November 2016


Network slicing Network slicing (network virtualization) is a key feature to enable

several players with diverging needs to coexist on the same

infrastructures with guaranteed level of QoS.

• A native SDN / NFV based architecture

• 3 independent layers (infrastructure, business enablement &

application)

• An orchestrator to create independent slices and allocate

resources of each layer to fulfill specific use case

5G business models

Mobile operators are looking at new ways to monetise 5G: pay-per-

use, Private network with dedicated spectrum operated by MNOs…

IoT challenge

Will 5G really drive industry transformation?

5G challenges (1/2)

Source: 3GPP


Spectrum for 5GEurope: 3.4-3.8 GHz, 24.5-27.5 GHz, 31.8-33.4 GHz and 40.5-43.5 GHz

More than 10 GHz allocated to mobile in the USA in new bands

More sharing needed. Facilitated by:

- High path loss in mmWave, antenna technology, HetNets

- Quantity of spectrum available will provide more options

5G challenges (2/2)

Source: MIC


5G testsMany trials and collaborations were announced in 2016 with speeds of tens of Gbps:

Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) will probably be the first « 5G »: tests will start in 2017 in the USA

Commercial service likely in 2018-2019 in the USA and maybe in South Korea

• AT&T tested 5G in Austin, Texas in Q2 2016. Field trials of 5G are expected before year-end.

• Verizon is to test 5G in the company's innovation centers in Waltham, Mass., and San Francisco. The MNO targets 4K

TV for its 5G tests.

• Plans to use 28 GHz and 37 GHz bands for this service. Probably for urban areas

• Verizon Wireless announced in September 2016 that it plans to compete with cable operators. First commercial deployment in Boston?

• SK Telecom showed demos using the 28 GHz band and is still talking about its plans to be the first to debut

“commercial” 5G service in time for the 2018 Winter Olympics.

• In February 2016, KT collaborated with Ericsson and managed to transmit data at the speed of 25.3Gbps by using

mmWave.

9


Major 5G initiatives and focus

EuropeThe 5G PPP is part of the EU Commission Horizon 2020 programme. With 19 projects involving academic research

centres and industry players, it is expected to foster innovation in Europe.

South KoreaIn South Korea, the 5G mobile strategy was defined as early as January 2014 by the Korean Government (Ministry

of Science, ICT and Future Planning).

2014-2020. 1.6 trillion KRW joint investment from both the Government and the private sector.

JapanThe 5G Mobile Forum (5GMF, www.5gmf.jp) was established late in September 2014. The Radio Policy Vision

Council of the MIC stated that strong cooperation among industries, academia and government was essential for

early realisation of 5G.

USA

February 2014: 5G Americas began work on a technical group project on “promoting Americas leadership in 5G

mobile broadband”.

new network architectures, spectral efficiency improvements, dynamic coordination from Baseband Unit (BBU)

pooling, Heterogeneous Networks (HetNets) and densification (cell splitting).

China

Based on the original IMT-Advanced Promotion Group, the IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group was launched by the

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and the

Ministry of Science and Technology in February 2013.

The platform’s mission is to promote the development of 5G technologies in China and to facilitate cooperation with

foreign companies and organisations.

Source: IDATE in 5G full steam ahead, November 2015


5G in Europe: 5G PPP - 3 or 4 phases (2014-2020)

• First phase (2014-2016)

• 19 projects

• 1 Coordination & support action, 15 Research & Innovation

projects, 3 Innovation projects

• 165 organisations involved

• 128 MEUR

• Second phase: optimisation (2016-2017)

• Large scale trials (2019-2020)

• New air interfaces

• Easier and more flexible network management

• Backhaul / fronthaul improvements

• Latency reduction

• Network slicing

• Improving collaboration between cells

• How to implement security in the system


5G in Asia

China

• China is running collaborative research programs, which are now starting to become

more accessible for non-Chinese organisations. The main programs are:• IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group

• 863 Research Program

• Future Forum

South Korea

• Similar like in Japan 5G activities in Korea are coordinated by 5G Forum, which has

members from industry and the research community. This group has developed rather

detailed technical reports on the 5G system with a focus on radio systems.

• Strong push by the government

• Winter Olympic games in 2018

Japan

• Japan focused 5G activities in The 5G Mobile Communications Promotion Forum

(http://5gmf.jp/en/), which is bringing together industry, standards bodies and the

academic domain. 5GMF developed white papers in particular on the 5G vision.

• 2020 olympics


5G in the Americas: 5G Americas and players’ push

5G activities are mainly undertaken by individual industry companies, industry

associations, and the academic domain

The main activities are on-going at:

• Intel Strategic Research Alliance (ISRA),

• NYU Wireless Research Center [24] mainly dealing with the investigation of millimetre

wave systems

• 4G Americas involves major industries from the US and has produced several white

papers on 5G

• Stepped into pre-standardisation work for 5G very early

• Many white papers published• MBB Evolution towards 5G

• 5G spectrum recommendations

• 5G Technology Evolution Recommendations

FCC quickly identified 5G spectrum

• In July 2016 approved an order making the US the first country in the world to open up

28, 37 & 39 GHz bands for 5G

• 600 MHz band: difficult and expensive process (reverse auction)

• Citizens Broadband Radio service in the 3.5 GHz band as “landmarks in using new

sharing tools to open up more mid-band spectrum.” Wheeler noted that it is

“interesting that this is apparently where Europe sees its 5G developing.”

5G and verticals

Expectations and likely adoption by verticals


Creation of the 5G Automotive Association

Founded by Audi, BMW Group, Daimler AG, Ericsson, Huawei, Intel,

Nokia and Qualcomm in September 2016

Defining and harmonizing use cases

Supporting standardization and regulatory bodies

Addressing vehicle-to-everything technology requirements

Running joint innovation and development projects

Verticals targeted by 5G

Source: Bosch

NGMN and the regional associations have

identified various promising vertical

sectors for 5G

Automotive, Energy, eHealth, Media & Entertainment,

Factory of the Future look promising

Transport & logistics, Agriculture & forestry could also

contribute to 5G growth


5G and the Automotive Sector

Key requirements• High bandwidth for infotainment services

• Low bandwidth uplink communication for telematics, security and insurance services

• Ultra low latencies for automation and high reliability for autonomous driving services

Barriers

• Timeline: demand for rapidly available

technologies

• Risk of competing technologies

• Business model requires clarification for

infotainment services, low willingness to pay

for end user

• Security can be a major issue

A market with a strong potential to be exploited rapidly

Drivers

• The connected car is a large,

developing market

• Regulations support initial deployments

• Diverse requirements well fit for the

virtualization approach of 5G

• Automotive players very invovled in

5GPP


5G and ManufacturingKey requirements• High bandwidth for video, AR/VR services

• Low power and cost communication for sensor networks

• Ultra low latencies for automation

• High reliability and dependability of the network

Drivers

• Development of the factory of the

future trend

• opportunity for research and innovation

initiatives to adjust their agendas

• older wired or wireless alternatives are

unlikely to meet all the requirements of

the domain

Barriers

• Slow take up (5 – 10 years after consumer

markets)

• Strong sensitivity to costs

• Long decision process

• Low trust in ICT solutions for reliability

• Strong focus on security

• Interoperability with legacy solutions

A market with a significant potential, but a delayed adoption


5G and EnergyKey requirements• Low cost, low bandwidth uplink for smart meters monitoring

• Long equipment lifespan and support (15+ years)

• High reliability, security and robustness

• Guaranteed quality of service

• Ultra low latency and ultra high availability for network control use cases

Drivers

• Growing investment in smart grid equipment

and projects (over 400 billion $ until 2020).

• Current wired solutions have significant

drawbacks and limits

• A developing smart meter market.

Barriers

• Important cost constraints

• 2G and LPWA could be adopted for smart meters

• Critical infrastructure with high requirements for

Quality of Service and availability in worst case

scenarios.

• Very high requirements for backhaul and backbone

communication networks

A market for 5G in smart meters, if costs can be brought down


5G Adoption by VerticalsFew vertical use cases have a real potential to act as leaders of 5G deployments, but once deployed, many

have a strong potential of adoption over the years

Source: IDATE, in 5G verticals, November 2016


First available 5G service is likely to be fixed wireless access

Focus on high data rates and capacity in Japan, South Korea and USA

Focus on vertical markets in Europe?

5G challenges

Network challenges: slicing, smooth introduction of technological innovations

Spectrum harmonisation

Business models

Verticals & 5G

Most promising verticals?

Is 5G timetable and characteristics adapted to vertical requirements?

Role for satellite & broadcasting?

Summary

Documents

5G outlook - Digiworld Summit | Investing in our Digital ... · PDF file5G outlook and verticals 5G in 2020 ... 2G Digital mobile telephony 3G ... Daimler AG, Ericsson, Huawei, Intel,