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Decision Analysis M.SAİT AKYUZ AMİNREZA SHİRİ MOHAMED HAMOUD

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Decision AnalysisM.Sait akyuzAminreza shiriMohamed hamoud1OUTLINE

IntroductionDecision (1): Railroad or HighwayConsistency AnalysisDecision (2): Where to ConstructConsistency AnalysisConclusion2IntroductionTRNC:-Growing populationIncreasing residentsDecreasing average ageBad transportation system LimitedTimeDestinations

May require more than one slide3IntroductionTransportation importance:-Not just a mean to get from a point to anotherBusiness facilitatorGoodsServicescrucial services :- Education and Health ServicesReport scopeComparing Alternative Destinations From A Financial Feasibility StandHighways VS RailroadsHighwaysProsCheaper to constructLess costly to maintainConsDoesnt have a constant travel speedSusceptible to peak hours congestionDifficult to respond to demand changes

5Highways VS RailroadsRailroadsProsDoesnt have a peak hoursConstant speedEasy to respond to demand changesConsExpensive to constructTheir maintenance cost a lot

6IntroductionBenefits of well-developed transportation systems:UnemploymentStandard of livingSociety welfareReal state pricesHigh Diminishing Rate of ReturnEconomic benefits of tourismExpected Results If Applied.

Decision: Highway or RailwayUsed Scale;1 = Equally important3 = Weakly more important5 = Strongly more important7 = Very strongly more important9 = Extremly importantSpecialist;A.Emre KOSKAProject Specialist in Constructionin ENKA 8Decision: Highway or RailwayEnvironmentCostSafetySpeedDestinationCons.TimeWeightsEnvironment1 3 3 5 9 7 0,41373Cost 1/31 3 5 5 5 0,25131Safety 1/3 1/31 3 3 5 0,14919Speed 1/5 1/5 1/31 5 3 0,09755Destination 1/9 1/5 1/3 1/51 3 0,05282Const.Time 1/7 1/5 1/5 1/3 1/31 0,03536Sum2,124,937,8714,5323,3324,001,009Decision: Highway or RailwayEnvironmentHighwayRailwaySafetyHighwayRailwayDestinationHighwayRailwayHighway11/7Highway11/5Highway17Railway71Railway51Railway1/710,1250,8750,1660,8330,8750,125CostHighwayRailwaySpeedHighwayRailwayConst. TimeHighwayRailwayHighway19Highway11/3Highway19Railway1/91Railway31Railway1/910,90,10,250,750,90,110Score for the OptionsRailways Score (0,875 * 0,413)+(0,833*0,149)+(0,125 * 0,052)+ (0,1* 0,251)+(0,75 * 0,097)+(0,1 * 0,035) = 0,594

Highways Score (0,125 * 0,413)+(0,166 * 0,149)+(0,875 * 0,052)+ (0,9 * 0,251)+(0,25 * 0,097)+(0,9 * 0,035) = 0,405

Consistency IndexEnvironmentCostSafetySpeedDestinationConst.TimeSumWeights0,410,750,450,490,480,252,836,830,140,250,450,490,260,181,777,030,140,080,150,290,160,181,006,690,080,050,050,100,260,110,656,670,050,050,050,020,050,110,326,140,060,050,030,030,020,040,226,35Average ()6,61888994

= (6,61- 6)/5 = 0,12212Consistency Ratio

13Decision : WhereOptions :1) Lefkoa Girne 2) Lefkoa Magosa3) Lefkoa GuzelyurtAttributes:EnvironmentPopulationCostRefillingWork Places14AnalysisEnvironmentCostPopulationRefillingWork PlacesWeightsEnvironment1 3 1/31 1/30,1314Cost 1/31 1/51 1/30,0718Population3 5 1 5 3 0,4459Refilling1 1 1/51 1/50,0823Work Places3 3 1/35 1 0,2684Sum8,3313,002,0713,004,87115AnalysisEnvironmentGirne-LefkoaLefkoa-MagosaLefkoa-G.YurtWeightsGirne-Lefkoa1 3 1/50,19Lefkoa Magosa 1/31 1/70,08Lefkoa-G.Yurt5 7 1 0,726,3311,001,341,00CostGirne-LefkoaLefkoa-MagosaLefkoa-G.YurtWeightsGirne-Lefkoa1 1/5 1/50,09Lefkoa Magosa5 1 1 0,45Lefkoa-G.Yurt5 1 1 0,4511,002,202,201,00PopulationGirne-LefkoaLefkoa-MagosaLefkoa-G.YurtWeightsGirne-Lefkoa1 1/53 0,18Lefkoa Magosa5 1 9 0,75Lefkoa-G.Yurt 1/3 1/91 0,076,331,3113,001,00RefillingGirne-LefkoaLefkoa-MagosaLefkoa-G.YurtWeightsGirne-Lefkoa1 1/5 1/70,07Lefkoa Magosa5 1 1/30,28Lefkoa-G.Yurt7 3 1 0,6413,004,201,481,00Work PlacesGirne-LefkoaLefkoa-MagosaLefkoa-G.YurtWeightsGirne-Lefkoa1 1/35 0,27Lefkoa Magosa3 1 9 0,67Lefkoa-G.Yurt 1/5 1/91 0,064,201,4415,001,0016ScoresGirne Lefkoa (0,19*0,13)+(0,09*0,07) + (0,18*0,445)+(0,07*0,08)+(0,27*0,27) = 0,190

Lefkoa Magosa (0,08*0,13)+(0,45*0,07) + (0,75*0,445)+(0,28*0,08)+(0,67*0,27) = 0,580

Lefkoa Gzelyurt (0,72*0,13)+(0,45*0,07) + (0,07*0,445)+(0,64*0,08)+(0,06*0,27) = 0,22917Consistency Index

EnvironmentCostPopulationRefillingWork PlacesSumWeightsEnvironment0,130,220,150,080,090,675,07Cost0,040,070,090,080,090,385,24Population0,390,360,450,410,812,425,41Refilling0,130,070,090,080,050,435,20Work Places0,390,220,150,410,271,445,35Average()

5,260633=(5,26-5)/4 = 0,065Consistency Ratio

ConclusionEnvironmental SustainabilityEconomic CompetitivenessDestinationConstruction of RailwayPopulationCostsBenefitsBetween Lefkoa and Magosa