4. Integrated Demand Forecast

Objectives

Transnet, as the custodian of ports, rail and pipelines has a responsibility to ensure availability of economic infrastructure in an

efficient and cost effective manner

Creating capacity ahead of demand is one of the primary objectives of the organisation

efficient and cost effective manner

the organisation

Most developed countries have processes in place whereby flow data is collected

T t b k d t d t d t d f tTransnet embarked on a process to understand current and future demand in November 2005

The resulting Transnet Demand Model is a significant improvement on i f ti th dprevious forecasting methods

The Demand Model forms the basis for the NIP and all long term planning in Transnet

Slide 12July 2009 Source: Transnet Group Planning

4. Integrated Demand Forecast

Demand Model Methodology

Step 1 Step 2

The approach is modelling intensive but risk is mitigated through stringent verification procedures

Actual data – based on publications and personal interviews

Verify with: • Known flows• Rail data• National freight flow model

Step 1 Step 2

National I-O model

Apportionment -Geographical Supply

and demand per commodity

Allocation - Flows per commodityMacro-economic

data

Consolidation of data into corridor and

rural flows

Macro-economic forecast

Commodity forecasts

Overlay onto Transportation modelp

• Measuring all flows over 352 magisterial districts with 65 commodities in tons and ton-kms – with 30 year forecasts and scenarios

Slide 13July 2009

ton-kms – with 30 year forecasts and scenarios

• Further risk mitigation through employing multiple sets of forecasts

Source: Transnet Group Planning

4. Integrated Demand ForecastCorridor Freight Distribution

Corridor Rail volume handled**Mt handled FY07

RBayCor 95.5

Port volume Mt, FY07

(Richards Bay)

’ i i iSishen-Saldanha

CapeCor

Sentra hub

NatCor

39.6

18.8

40.1

17 2

(Saldanha)

(Cape Town)

(Durban***)

Transnet’s activities are concentrated mainly in four ports and five land corridors

NatCor

Freestate

EastCor

NorthCor

17.2

15.1

17.1

13.2

(Durban )

NWestCor

SouthCor

WestCor

(Port Elizabeth*)

NEastCor

SEastCor

NamibiaCor ~0

(East London)

Slide 14July 2009 Source: Transnet Freight Demand Model 2007

Freight demand in South Africa is very concentrated

4. Integrated Demand Forecast

Annual Growth Rate Forecast per Package Type (Feb 2009)

*Dotted lines reflect the forecast Dotted lines reflect the forecast (2008) before the economic meltdown

*

Slide 15July 2009 Source: Transnet Freight Demand Model February 2009

4. Integrated Demand Forecast

Freight Supply Density (Production Areas)

Freight Supply Density (Production Areas)

Freight Demand Density (Consumption Areas)

Freight Demand Density (Consumption Areas)

Surface Flow Density

(Production Areas)(Production Areas) (Consumption Areas)(Consumption Areas)

200

7

200

7

2 2

37 37

Slide 16June 2009 Total Surface Freight Density based on: Mining; Manufacturing; Agricultural; Population; Wealth

203

203

4. Integrated Demand Forecast

Surface Flow Density (All Modes)

Mtpa 2007Mtpa 2007 Mtpa 2037Mtpa 2037

Slide 17July 2009 Source: Transnet Freight Demand Model