47
3.4) Approaches of development policies By taking theoretical considerations into account, chapter 4 is concerned with the practical implementation of development policies. Following measures are currently realized or discussed: Internal reforms (e.g. capital market); Measures for sustainability and leapfrogging; Climate policy and development. Support by international initiatives; Debt relief (HIPCs initiative); Development aid; Trade and capital movement liberalization, increase of FDI, inclusion into GVCs (chapter 4). Trade and Development © Freytag 2017 1

3.4) Approaches of development policies - uni-jena.deTrade... · 3.4) Approaches of development policies ... OECD Development Centre Technical Papers No. 164, ... call for vaccination

  • Upload
    lamkiet

  • View
    220

  • Download
    3

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

3.4) Approaches of development policies

By taking theoretical considerations into account, chapter 4 is concerned with the practical implementation of development policies. Following measures are currently realized or discussed:

� Internal reforms (e.g. capital market);

� Measures for sustainability and leapfrogging;

� Climate policy and development.

� Support by international initiatives;

� Debt relief (HIPCs initiative);

� Development aid;

� Trade and capital movement liberalization, increase of FDI, inclusion into GVCs (chapter 4).

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 20171

a. Internal reforms

Following latest discussions, many developing countries started internal reforms.

If implemented, these reforms are mainly successful. Examples are Chile, in part Argentina, Central and Eastern Europe and several Asian countries. In Africa, only few examples for internal reforms are observable (Mozambique, Burkina Faso). Reform elements are:

� Institutional change

� Capital markets and microcredits

� others, such as

� currency reform (stabilization program);

� privatization and fiscal policy reform (often ignored)

� pension policy;

� trade policy.

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 20172

Institutional change

How and why do institutions change?

� crisis?

� evolution?

� revolution?

� reform?

Is institutional change always discretionary? Does it follow regularities?

Forms: � collective choice theories,

� evolutionary theories,

� blending evolution and design,

� equilibrium view,

� inertia, bounded rationality, role of history.Trade and Development ©

Freytag 20173

Why do reforms happen sometimes and why not on other occasions?

Freytag and Renaud (Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 2007) analyse the policy change from short-term to long-term orientation (rule-binding) in economic policy, which is deemed to be favourable to economic welfare:

� business cycle;

� time consistency;

� veil of ignorance.

Learning plays a major role in the concept. It is routed in prior knowledge of the agents and their limited ability to process new knowledge (information). The attention process is selective (shift effect vs. refinement effect).

Let us take a realist’s perspective: short-term orientation.Learning takes place according to experience; if the model works, change is not necessary; otherwise, change may be considered (reluctantly).Trade and Development ©

Freytag 20174

Pathological learning (1-4) vs. active learning (5-9): a reform process:

(1) discretion � poor economic performance (2) � underground activities and corruption (3) � vested interests (4) � deeper government intervention

(5) cognitive dissonance; i.e. the model does not deliver (6) � feedback to interest groups, burden of proof being reversed (7) � pressure on the government (8) � doubts in politics, as model seems to be ill-performing (9) � foreign support.

The level and role of active learning are positively dependent on…

… integration of a country into the world economy (pressure, images);… positive experience with rules (competition rules, CBI, golden fiscal rule);… good education;… free media.

In other words: competition drives (institutional) innovations!

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 20175

A reform agenda: The Washington Consensus

� Fiscal discipline;

� Redirection of public expenditures toward allocatively and distributively efficient projects;

� Tax reform (lower marginal rates, broader tax base);

� Interest rate liberalization;

� Competitive exchange rate;

� Trade liberalization;

� Liberalization of FDI inflows;

� Privatization;

� Deregulation (abolish barriers to entry and exit);

� Secure property rights.

Critique initiated Rodrik to formulate the “Augmented Washington Consensus“.

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 20176

The “Augmented Washington Consensus“ contains additional elements which characterize an economic order almost completely:

� Corporate governance;

� Anti-corruption;

� Flexible labor markets;

� WTO agreements;

� Financial codes and standards;

� “Prudent” capital-account opening;

� Non-intermediate exchange rate regimes;

� Independent central bank/ inflation targeting;

� Social safety nets;

� Targeted poverty reduction.

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 20177

Educational policy as institutional reform

Hanushek and Woessmann (2008) derive following policy options from problems which occur for developing countries as of lacking cognitive abilities of people living in these countries:

• Institutional reforms;

• Accountability of school politicians ;

• Decentralized autonomy � competition between school authorities;

• Right of choice for parents.

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 20178

A crucial problem is the lacking financial endowment of small and medium sized enterprises and entrepreneurs in developing countries. The reason can found in imperfect and badly organized capital markets:

� Capital market failure;

� Fragmented capital markets;

� Policy failure.

Especially small loans, which are affected by the so called credit rationing, are concerned with these problems. Small enterprises are not considered with for them favorable interests by the banks.

� Adverse selection

� Moral Hazard

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 20179

Mircocredits as solution

With the help of subsidized microcredits a financial market is established. Thereby, the special circumstances are considered. The focus is on poverty reduction: women shall especially be supported. Mechanisms are for example:

� Cooperative models;

� Group credit models;

� Progressive Lending.

There are many positive experiences (e.g. in Bangladesh and Bolivia).

� Nobel Peace Prize 2006 for M. Yunus (Grameen Bank)

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201710

Some projects are self-supporting and commercially successful. Within the insurance economy exist thoughts on micro insurances. Further there are technological innovations.

However, there are also negative developments. The fast growth of the markets led to irrational lending.

Often the credits are hard to repay. In fact a credit is still a credit.

Examples from the British press:

http://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2013/nov/19/microcredit-south-africa-loans-disaster

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-11664632

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201711

b. Action for Sustainability and Leapfrogging

Basically, leapfrogging refers to the skipping of development stages � see also economic history approaches (Rostow)

Especially, the necessity of (environmental) sustainability of the development process causes this approach being relevant.

� Leapfrogging vs. catch-up development

A central question is: How are fairer living conditions without exploding resource consumption possible? (Source: Wuppertal Institut)

As the process of industrialization is shortened or leapfrogged, natural resource can be economized.

Besides the environmental advantages, conflicts of interests with developed countries may be avoided if the participation of developing countries in the international labor division is intensified without pressuring traditional sectors in OECD-countries. Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201712

The structural change which is necessary in industrial countries – especially within the so called low wage labor market – is better managed.

However, it needs to be secured that developed countries open their markets for alternative goods and services. One possibility for leapfrogging is to support modern marketing forms (e-commerce) and to create new markets and new forms of labor division, respectively.*

The problem is the financing and creation of needed network infrastructure; here, positive developments are observable for mobile telephony. Further, these activities need to be included into the global labor division.

*Sources: Goldstein, Andrea and David O‘Connor (2000), E-Commerce for Development: Prospects and Policy Issues, OECD Development Centre Technical Papers No. 164, http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/37/61/1922730.pdf

Bastos Tigre, Paulo and David O‘Connor (2002), Policies and Institutions for E-Commerce Readiness: What Can Developing Countries Learn from OECD Experience?, OECD Development Centre Technical Papers No. 189, www.oecd.org/dataoecd/17/38/2081349.pdf

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201713

A measure for leapfrogging is the promotion of electronic trade in developing countries.

Starting point was the establishment of the DOT Force (Digital Opportunity Task Force) by the G8 in 2001.

Their task is the determine possibilities to close the digital divide. There are no administrative task and authorities connected with the DOT Force

The DOT Force relies on so-called “Public-Private Partnership“, i.e. the explicit integration of the private sector into public efforts.

� Few concrete facts are known; political economic considerations cannot be denied.

� No spillovers existing.

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201714

In the last decades, a positive trend towards the utilization of mobile telephony is observable.

Results of different empirical studies indicate a positive correlation between an increase in mobile telephony penetration and an increase of different development political indicators.

However, it is difficult to quantify the isolated effect of mobile telephony penetration, but some positive effect can be observed and are increasingly expected.

In Kenya for instance, a thriving industry develops functions, apps and devices � Silicon Savannah

see e.g.: http://www.safaricom.co.ke/, or : http://www.konzacity.go.ke/

The number of people connected with the world has dramatically risen.

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201715

138,1

120,6

108,2 108,1

96,8 91,6

73,5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

CIS** Europe Arab States The Americas World Asia & Pacific Africa

Mobile-cellular subscriptions per 100 inhabitants, 2015*

Regions are based on the ITU BDT Regions, see: http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/definitions/regions/index.html

Note: * Estimate ** Commonwealth of Independent States

Source: ITU World Telecommunication /ICT Indicators database

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201716

Mobile telephony as transfer and distribution channel for economic processes:

� E-Banking, realization of financial transactions via mobile phone and PIN;

� Payment system for remittances� Distribution of micro credits via mobile telephony (Kenya und

Tanzania)*

Mobile telephony as channel for of information

� Circulation of market and price information, reduction of information asymmetry between producer and intermediaries

� Anti-illiteracy programs for rural levels of the population (Project ABC, Niger)

� E-health, disease-tracking systems etc.� Programs for the enhancement of health care of rural population,

telediagnosis, call for vaccination (e-Health, Western Africa)� Political information before general elections. Option to inform policy

critical population groups (Kenya, Tanzania...)

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201717

Tourism as determinant for development

A special problem of the concept of sustainability as well as of leapfrogging is that this type of development reflects the preferences of developed countries.

Preferences of people living in developing countries are not necessarily considered; they want jobs and rising living standards.

� environmental protection as superior good

Approach to the solution following Coase*:

Property rights for the exploitation of the environment are in the procession of local people � who is interested in considerate exploitation, participates in financing � trade of exploitation rights.

Coase, Ronald C. (1960), ‘The Problem of Social Cost‘, Journal of Law and Economics, Vol. 3, October, pp. 1-44.

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201718

Tourism may bridge developing and developed countries’ preferences. It creates jobs (often low-skilled) and has indirect effects on transportation, manufacturing and crafting in developing countries.

Empirical studies show that developing countries have comparative advantages in the tourism sector;

� climate� abundant nature� historical sites� complementary labor

Thus, biodiversity can be interpreted rather as a location factor than as a cost factor. It would be profitable to invest into biodiversity.* Industrialization would be lowered and tertiarization promoted.

Still, the growth potential of tourism is limited.

*Freytag, A. and Chr. Vietze (2009). Biodiversity and International Tourism: A Story of Comparative Advantage, The Open Political Science Journal, No. 2, pp. 23-34.Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201719

c. Climate policy and development

Still, developing countries have only taken only poor efforts to solve environmental problems. However, environmental problems and climate change might cause serious developmental problems. There is a trend bringing together development and environment: high potential for renewable energy in developing countries.

� Greening growth in Africa

However, global environmental problems require a global strategy for their overcoming.

� Environmental problems as global spillovers.

Market failure vs. government failure (Coase).

In principle, the Kyoto-protocol is such a strategy.

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201720

Kyoto-Protocol

Contracting parties (so called Annex I countries) agreed upon a collective reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2 % (effective 1990) until 2012 (commitment period: 2008-2012).

Thereby, the individual commitments vary.

Basically, the reduction (measured in carbon dioxide equivalent) is possible via avoidance and utilization of or the construction of sinks respectively, i.e. through the utilization of soils and forest to bind greenhouse gas. Three mechanisms exist:

� Emission Trading

� Joint Implementation

� Clean Development Mechanism

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201721

Therewith, flexible (in spatial as well as temporal regard) and market based instruments were established with which’s help negative spillovers can be eliminated by simultaneously maintaining enough freedom for a competition of systems.

However, there are a number of problems which may impede a consistent global climate policy.

� Hot Air

� Increasing international air traffic

� Calculation of the efficiency of reforestation

� Sanctions

� Attempt to implement a market based and source-specific global environmental policy; further development in December 2007 in Bali, Copenhagen 2009, Cancun 2010 and Durban 2011.

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201722

In December 2007, representative of 187 countries came together to debate on the future of the climate policy. Negotiations were conducted on how to guarantee a smooth transition after the end of the Kyoto-protocol. Furthermore, measures on following topics were decided:*

• Adaption;• Technology;• REDD;• IPCC;• CDM:• Storage;• LDCs.

In Copenhagen 2009 no results were reached, in Cancun 2010 a declaration of intent on the limitation of the temperature was reached.

*Press Release from the 15th Dec. 2007: UN Breakthrough on climate change reached in Bali, http://unfccc.int/2860.php

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201723

On the G7 Summit in Schloss Elmau, June 7 and 8, the heads of state placed de-carbonization high on the agenda; from the Summit Declaration:

“…We affirm our strong determination to adopt at the Climate Change Conference in December in Paris this year (COP21) a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) applicable to all parties that is ambitious, robust, inclusive and reflects evolving national circumstances…

This should enable all countries to follow a low-carbon and resilient development pathway in line with the global goal to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C…

Accordingly, as a common vision for a global goal of greenhouse gas emissions reductions we support sharing with all parties to the UNFCCC the upper end of the latest IPCC recommendation of 40 to 70 % reductions by 2050 compared to 2010 recognizing that this challenge can only be met by a global response…

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201724

We commit to doing our part to achieve a low-carbon global economy in the long-term including developing and deploying innovative technologies striving for a transformation of the energy sectors by 2050 and invite all countries to join us in this endeavor. To this end we also commit to develop long term national low-carbon strategies...

Climate finance is already flowing at higher levels. We will continue our efforts to provide and mobilize increased finance, from public and private sources, and to demonstrate that we and others are well on our way to meet the USD 100 bn goal…

Mobilization of private sector capital is also crucial for achieving this commitment and unlocking the required investments in low-carbon technologies as well as in building resilience against the effects of climate change.…”

� High awareness, little practical commitment

Source: http://www.bundesregierung.de/Content/DE/_Anlagen/G8_G20/2015-06-08-g7-abschluss-eng.html;jsessionid=D97D83BE10E72CBA681CAE2141CA4039.s1t1?nn=437032Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201725

Paris Agreement*

The objective following Article 2 is , "enhancing the implementation" of the UNFCCC through:[6]

• "(a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change;

• (b) Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production;

• (c) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development."

Countries furthermore aim to reach "global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible".

* https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-d&chapter=27&lang=en

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201726

Rules are comparable to the original protocol:

• Nationally determined carbon dioxide reductions;

• the agreement enters force only if 55 countries representing 55 per cent of emissions ratify it;

• deadline is April 2017 (145 countries ratified as of May 15, 2017, http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php);

• developing countries are also contributing (new);

• Green Climate Fund (100 bn US-$ annually) � support from developed countries;

• weak enforcement mechanism;

• position of US-administration unclear.

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201727

d. Support by international initiatives (examples)

Corporate Social Responsibility

Recently, companies are advised to not just orientate on entrepreneurial goals. Moreover, the company would have a responsibility towards the society.

The is the so called “Corporate Social Responsibility“ (CSR) which does not only account for shareholder but to all stakeholder. These are:

� the employees;

� the environment;

� the community;

� others.

Legitimation and entrepreneurial significance of the demand for CSR are not evident; possibly as marketing instrument

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201728

The Global Compact

The Global Compact was developed as part of the global economic political assignments.

Trade policy lies within the responsibility of the WTO. The thesis is that humanitarian and environmental concerns are poorly represented so far. Public Private Partnership as part of the Global Governance.

Involved parties are UN-organizations, companies, NGOs. The implementation involves four elements

� Didactic forum

� Dialogue

� Leadership

� Networks

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201729

The Global Compact comprises following principles:

1. Human rights

• “Businesses should support and respect the protection of internationally proclaimed human rights; and

• Make sure that they are not complicit in human rights abuses”.*

2. Labor

• “Businesses should uphold the freedom of association and the effective recognition of the right to collective bargaining;

• the elimination of all forms of forced and compulsory labor;

• the effective abolition of child labor; and

• eliminate discrimination in respect of employment and occupation”. *

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201730

3. Environment

• “Business should support a precautionary approach to environmental challenges;

• undertake initiatives to promote greater environmental responsibility; and

• encourage the development and diffusion of environmentally friendly technologies”*.

4. Anti-Corruption

• “Businesses should work against corruption in all its forms, including extortion and bribery”*.

*Source: United Nations (2011): United Nations Global Compact. Ten Principles. http://www.unglobalcompact.org/AboutTheGC/TheTenPrinciples/index.html

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201731

Global Compact for the climate change?

Proposal by the RIS (Research and Information System for Developing Countries, New Delhi).* Such a compact needs to fulfill five conditions:

� comprehensive;

� fair;

� realistic;

� efficient;

� effective.

However, the main aim is the establishment of a global fund fed by developed countries (explained by the consideration of intergenerational equity).

* Towards a Global Compact for Managing Climate Change, RIS Policy Briefs No. 34, November 2007, New Delhi

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201732

Critical evaluation of the Global Compact

As a forum for dialog and measure for voluntary agreements, the Global Compact can be positively evaluated.

� Signaling!

From a humanitarian perspective, these principles are self-evident (but not complied everywhere); therefore, their emphasis is necessary. It needs to be highlighted for all concerned parties that the observance of these principles is economically reasonable.

� Mechanism of sanctions?

Business participants: 8.744 (315 Germans)Non-business participants: 5.142 (81 Germans)

Success or failure?

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201733

New African Partnership for Development (NEPAD)

NEPAD (http://www.nepad.org/) was established by the initiative of five African governments ( Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa) and operates in six programmatic areas:

• agriculture and food security,

• climate change and natural resource management,

• regional integration and infrastructure,

• human development,

• economic and corporate governance

• cross-cutting issues.

The cooperation across the whole continent is remarkable. The “Good Governance” in all areas as well as the strengthening of the inner-African cohesion accounts as a crucial (e.g. deepened regional integration).

� In total less concrete, many declarations of intent. Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201734

e. Debt relief (HIPCs Initiative)

A big problem is the dept expressed in internationally convertible currency of many developing countries.

To solve these debt crises, a number of propositions and initiatives were presented, including above all debt relief and debt restructuring (e.g. Jubilee 2000).

Central Institutions and initiatives:

� Paris Club

� London Club

� HIPC Initiative of the Washington Institutions and the G8.

A state insolvency order is still lacking.

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201735

Especially the HIPC (Highly indebted poorest countries) initiative arouse a high degree of international attention.

The HIPC initiative for the conditional debt relief was decided in 1996 and extended by the G7/G8 in 1999; based on PRSP, debt relief is decided after tow steps have met (completion point, decision point).

In total, 42 countries were ranked as HIPC, today they are 39, of which 36 reached the decision point (fully eligible) and 3 the completion point.

Aim of this initiative is the reduction of the debt level in relation to the exports to approx. 150 percent.

At the G8 summit in 2005, a further debt reduction was decided. 18 countries are concerned

The conditionality refers to aimed poverty reduction which is set within the framework of Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility of the IMF.

Source: https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/hipc.htmTrade and Development ©

Freytag 201736

How is the debt relief for HIPCs to be assessed?

It is disputable if debt relief is a good method to solve development problems. If there are no changes in the economic policy, it is rather contra-productive.

First, basic arguments for a debt relief:

� Allocative arguments

� fresh start, debt overhang � negative externalities, risk of contagion� Reforms political better enforceable (“dirty

work“)

� politically required to increase the willingness of the political class for reforms

� Without international coordination, it will come to free-riding.

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201737

Basic arguments against:

� Moral hazard in developing countries

� Moral hazard in creditor banks

� Support of corrupt regimes (von Fürstenberg 1999: “Butchering Burundi“)

� Distraction from important measures (“Aid by Trade“).

Further, it is reasonable to distinguish between structural and level problems. If the interest share of the debt service is very low (which is the case in many HIPCs), the debt problem is less urging. With and without debt relief, it is solely the economic policy which counts; institutions matter!*

* Source: Dluhosch, Barbara (1999), ‘The G7 and the Debt of the Poorest‘, in J.J. Kirton, J.P. Daniels and A. Freytag (Hrsg.), Guiding Global Order, Aldershot et al.: Ashgate, pp. 79-91.

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201738

What drives debt relief?

The debt relief for developing countries barely follows economical rationality, but instead a path dependency.

It is politically driven by governments in donor countries who

� do not have to admit past mistakes;

� achieve a political advantage and

� can ignore other important topics.

The HIPC initiative increased the importance of institutional reforms.

� Institutions matter in the 2000s.*� With the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI)of the World Bank debt

relief decisions are rather politically driven again

* Freytag, Andreas and Gernot Pehnelt (2009), ‘Debt Relief and Changing Governance Structures in LDCs’, World Development, 2009, pp. 62-80. Freytag, Andreas, Julian Schmied and Jonatan Pettersson (2017), Debt Relief and Good Governance: New Evidence, CESifo WP 6360.Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201739

f. Development aid

Development aid in the actual sense is the part of financial held which builds on central determinants of development, namely:

� Real capital,

� Human capital and

� Technical-organizational knowledge.

It is a resource transfer at special conditions.

Principal forms of development aid:

� Financial aid (in Germany by the KfW),

� Technical aid ( in Germany by the GIZ) and

� Personnel aid (DAAD, CDG, DEG, GIZ).

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201740

The DAC approves only these resource transfers as development aid which feature a grant share of 25%.

Furthermore, the transfer needs to fulfill certain requirements for the promotion of the economic and social development., and the recipient country needs to registered.

The DAC considers only public and non private development aid.

Germany gives approx. 0.3% of the GNP as public development aid, the biggest share as bilateral aid (in the narrow sense). All DAC countriesOn average, the aid of all DAC-countries together amounts to 0.24% of the GNP (extreme cases are Denmark: 0.99%, and the USA: 0.10%).

Wanted are approx. 0.7%.

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201741

Terms of development aid

� Project aid

� Program aid

� Food aid

� Aid tying

Important is the review of the effectiveness of the development aid. The KfW as well as the German government (http://www.deval.org/de/) use a evaluation system for their purposes:

4 principle questions under the consideration of sustainability:

� Effectiveness

� Relevance

� Efficiency

� Undesirable side effects

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201742

Economic assessment of development aid

Lord Bauer (LSE), one of the world’s most famous development economists, captured still valid points of criticism on development aid:

� Aid promotes corruption;

� aid contributes to the awareness of development stemming from outside;

� aid promotes rent-reeking at the expense of profit-seeking;

� aid benefits elites;

� aid comforts governments in donor countries and reduces efforts of market liberalization;

� in this way aid creates dependencies.

� Bauer’s conclusion: Public development aid is except for decentralized projects and emergency aid counter-productive.

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201743

The theoretical insights of Peter Bauer were mostly confirmed by a meta-analysis by Hristos Doucouliagos and Martin Paldam*. The authors determine the impact of development on:

� Investment: Increase by 25% of the aid, the remaining amount trickles away (S↓);

� Growth: low insignificant increase;

� Growth (controlled): no effects

*Doucouliagos, Hristos and Martin Paldam (2009), The aid effectiveness literature. The sad result of 40 years of research. Journal of Economic Surveys 23, pp. 433-61.

Grill, Bartholomäus (2005), Ach, Afrika, München: Goldmann.

Easterly, William (2006), The White Man’s Burden, London: Pengiun Books.

Paldam, Martin: Aid Effectiveness Literature Website, http://www.martin.paldam.dk/Meta-AEL.php

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201744

In total, 141 studies with 1,777 regression equations were examined..

Besides the low effectiveness of aid, the literature shows that the results depend on characteristics of journals and authors:

� Ideology;

� The authors’ past;

� Institutional interests;

� Publication policy.

The results are not undistorted.

The study can serve as warning for other scientists.

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201745

On the other hand, slightly positive effects of aid on democratic institutions are observable.

� Institutions: slightly positive effects *

Maybe, developing aid – as well as debt reduction – can be linked to institutional reforms which then have an indirect impact.. The literature on institutions and growth shows a positive correlation between both.**

Is this the reason why the united states reorganized their aid budget to higher shares for the promotion of good governance

*Heckelman, Jac (2010), Aid and Democratization in the Transition Economies, Kyklos 63, pp. 558-79.

**Glaeser, E.L., La Porta, R., Lopes-de-Silvanes, F., Shleifer, A., 2004. Do Institutions Cause Growth? Journal of Economic Growth 9, pp. 271-303.

***Azpuru, D., Finkel, S.E., Pérez-Linán, Seligon, M.A., 2008. Trends in Democracy Assistance. What has the United States Been Doing? Journal of Democracy 19, pp. 150-9.

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201746

Furthermore, case studies show that development aid is only helpful in countries with functioning institutions, i.e. where good governance is prevalent.

� Botswana

Despite these results, development aid has recently been and shall be extended.

A reason might be the extended engagement of China in Africa.* This aid is mainly without conditionality (no-strings-attached-strategy).

Infrastructure investment could well be financed with ODA.

* Pehnelt, Gernot (2007), 'The Political Economy of Chinas Aid Policy in Africa', Jena

Economic Research Papers, 2007-051, Abel, Martin (2008), Doubling Aid to Africa, Saarbrücken: VDM.

Trade and Development ©

Freytag 201747