260690 WP II Demand Forecast Report FINAL Revision

5/20/2018 260690 WP II Demand Forecast Report FINAL Revision

LAHMEYERINTERNATIONAL

LI / GE7 26 0690 October 2012

MINISTRY OFWATERRESOURCES

ANDELECTRICITYREPUBLIC OFSUDAN

General Directorate of Policy, Planning and Projects

Long and Medium Term

Power System Plans

Demand Forecast

Report FINAL Revision

WP II - Demand and Supply Balancing &

WP III Evaluation of Existing Facilities


MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES AND ELECTRICITY

Long and Medium Term Power System Plans SudanDemand Forecast Report (WP II & WP III) FINAL Revision

18/10/2012 Page i260690

Lahmeyer International GmbH, 2012

The information contained in this document is solely for the use of the Client identified on

the cover sheet for the purpose for which it has been prepared.

Lahmeyer International GmbH undertakes no duty to or accepts any responsibility to anythird party who may rely upon this document.

All rights reserved. No section or element of this document may be removed from this

document, reproduced, electronically stored or transmitted in any form without written

permission of Lahmeyer International GmbH.




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Client: Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity

General Directorate of Policy, Planning and ProjectsNile StreetP.O. Box 878

Khartoum

Republic of Sudan

Consultant: Lahmeyer International GmbH

Friedberger Strae 173D-61118 Bad Vilbel

Germany

Status: Final - Revision

Date: Bad Vilbel 18/10/2012

Revision History:

Rev. Date Author Checked by Approved by Description

v0 30.06.2012 Karsten Schmitt,Kai-Uwe Horn,Enrique Salazar,Berhon Dibrani,Jens Moedinger

Kai-Uwe Horn,Karsten Schmitt,Manfred Kugler

Dr. Alexis Bonneschky Draft chapter 1 - 5

v1 02.08.2012 As previous version Kai-Uwe Horn,Karsten Schmitt

Dr. Alexis Bonneschky Draft

v2 17.08.2012 As previous version Kai-Uwe Horn,Karsten Schmitt

Dr. Alexis Bonneschky Final

V3 18.10.2012 As previous version Karsten Schmitt,Manfred Kugler Dr. Alexis Bonneschky Final - Revision




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Table of Contents

1 Executive summary...............................................................................1

1.1 Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 1

1.2 Acknowledgement............................................................................................ 2

1.3 Compendium.................................................................................................... 2

1.3.1 Frame conditions for demand analysis and forecast......................................... 2

1.3.2 Forecast results................................................................................................ 9

2 Introduction ......................................................................................... 13

2.1 Objectives ...................................................................................................... 13

2.2 Structure of report .......................................................................................... 14

2.3 Methodology and assumptions....................................................................... 14

2.3.1 Approach........................................................................................................ 15

2.3.2 Data analysis and data validated.................................................................... 17

2.3.3 Definitions ...................................................................................................... 18

3 Frame conditions for demand analysis and forecast.......................20

3.1 Geographic frame .......................................................................................... 20

3.2 Political and administrative frame................................................................... 21

3.3 Demographic frame........................................................................................ 21

3.4 Economic frame ............................................................................................. 25

4 Power system in Sudan historic, actual and outlook....................27

4.1 Institutional and political frame of the power sector ........................................ 27

4.2 Consumption.................................................................................................. 28

4.2.1 Connections and consumption by sectors and states..................................... 28

4.2.2 Seasonal and daily load characteristics.......................................................... 36

4.2.3 Load factor..................................................................................................... 39

4.2.4 Isolated grids and rural electrification ............................................................. 40

4.2.5 Suppressed demand ...................................................................................... 41

4.2.6 Ability and willingness to pay.......................................................................... 42

4.3 Transmission and distribution......................................................................... 43




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4.3.1 Existing power grid......................................................................................... 43

4.3.2 Operation criteria and network characteristics ................................................ 46

4.3.3 Challenges to the network and committed / planned expansions ................... 474.4 Generation ..................................................................................................... 51

4.4.1 Existing power plants ..................................................................................... 53

4.4.2 Committed power plants................................................................................. 65

4.4.3 Summary generation characteristics and implications for expansion planning 68

4.5 Losses ............................................................................................................. 1

4.5.1 Technical losses transmission.......................................................................... 1

4.5.2 Technical losses distribution............................................................................. 1

4.5.3 Non-technical losses ........................................................................................ 1

5 Assumptions and scenario definition .................................................2

5.1 Previous analyses and forecasts...................................................................... 2

5.2 Assumptions and driving factors for demand.................................................... 2

5.3 Definition of forecast scenarios ........................................................................ 4

6 Demand forecast ...................................................................................6

6.1 Moderate scenario ........................................................................................... 6

6.2 Base scenario ................................................................................................ 10

6.3 High scenario................................................................................................. 15

7 Demand supply balancing.................................................................. 21

8 Conclusion...........................................................................................28




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List of Annexes

Annex 1 Data collection

Annex 2 Demographic data

Annex 3 Economic data

Annex 4 Power system data Sudan

Annex 5 Assumptions by locality

Annex 6 Results demand forecast

Annex 7 Maps




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List of Figures

Figure 1-1: Peak load moderate, base and high scenario (2006 - 2031) ........9

Figure 2-1: Approach demand analysis and forecast ............................................15

Figure 3-1: Distribution of population and main towns in Sudan, ..........................22

Figure 3-2: Share of urban, rural and nomadic population by locality in Sudan, ...23

Figure 3-3: Lifetime migration in Sudan ................................................................24

Figure 3-4: GDP by kind of economic activity and annual growth at constantmarket prices (2000 - 2011) ..................................................................................26

Figure 4-1: Electrification ratio (national grid) and rate (2006 - 2011) ...................29

Figure 4-2: Number of customers by customer group (2005 - 2011).....................31

Figure 4-3: Connection growth by customer group (2005 - 2011).........................31

Figure 4-4: Power consumption by customer group (2000 - 2011) ....................... 32

Figure 4-5: Monthly consumption by customer group (2011) ................................33

Figure 4-6: Map showing consumption by state and consumer group (2011)....... 34

Figure 4-7: Specific consumption by customer group (2005 - 2011).....................35

Figure 4-8: Annual peak load (gross) and annual growth rates (2002 - 2011) ......36

Figure 4-9: Monthly peak load (2002 - 2011) ........................................................ 37

Figure 4-10: Daily load curves for summer/ winter, weekday/weekend day,2007/2011 .............................................................................................................38

Figure 4-11: Time of daily maximum load (2011)..................................................39

Figure 4-12: Frequency of daily maximum and minimum load (2009 - 2011) .......39

Figure 4-13: Annual generation, peak load and load factor (2002 - 2011) ............ 40

Figure 4-14: Schematic network topology Sudan 2010 (Source: SETCo).............45

Figure 4-15: Map of Sudan existing and committed power plants......................52

Figure 4-16: Available capacity by month and annual maximum available capacity54




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Figure 4-17: Development of available capacity (low) between 2006 and 2012 andmaximum available capacity for 2012 ................................................................... 55

Figure 4-18: Development of annual generated energy (net) between 2007 and2011 and firm energy for 2012 .............................................................................. 56

Figure 4-19: Seasonal generation profiles based on monthly generation byMerowe, Roseires and combined thermal units during the period 2009 2011....57

Figure 4-20: Seasonal generation profiles based on monthly energy generationproduced by generation facilities during the period 2009 - 2011...........................57

Figure 4-21: Merowe HPP - daily power production characteristics (2011)...........62

Figure 4-22: Roseires HPP - daily power production characteristics (2011) .........63

Figure 4-23: Development of available capacities (low) between 2012 and 2031...1

Figure 6-1: Energy generation and consumption moderate scenario (2006 -2031).......................................................................................................................6

Figure 6-2: Peak load and annual growth moderate scenario (2006 - 2031) .......7

Figure 6-3: Energy consumption by customer group moderate scenario (2006 -2031).......................................................................................................................7

Figure 6-4: Energy consumption - percentage share by customer group moderate scenario (2006 - 2031)............................................................................8

Figure 6-5: Electrification ratio (grid connected and off grid) and share of statesand localities connected to the national grid moderate scenario (2009-2031) ..... 8

Figure 6-6: Energy generation and consumption base scenario (2006 - 2031)..11

Figure 6-7: Peak load base scenario (2006 - 2031) ...........................................11

Figure 6-8: Energy consumption by customer group base scenario (2006 - 2031)12

Figure 6-9: Energy consumption percentage share by customer group basescenario (2006 - 2031).......................................................................................... 12

Figure 6-10: Electrification ratio (grid connected and off grid) and share of statesand localities connected to the national grid base scenario (2009 - 2031).........13

Figure 6-11: Energy generation and consumption high scenario (2006 - 2031).16

Figure 6-12: Peak load high scenario (2006 - 2031) ..........................................16




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Figure 6-13: Energy consumption by customer group high scenario (2006 -2031)..................................................................................................................... 17

Figure 6-14: Energy consumption - percentage share by customer group highscenario (2006 - 2031).......................................................................................... 17

Figure 6-15: Electrification ratio and share of states and localities connected to thenational grid high scenario (2009 - 2031)........................................................... 18

Figure 7-1: Balancing of demand and supply of peak load (MW) for moderate,base and high scenario (2006 to 2031).................................................................22

Figure 7-2: Balancing of monthly demand and supply of peak load (MW) formoderate, base and high scenario (2006 to 2031)................................................24

Figure 7-3: Balancing of monthly demand and supply of peak load (MW) formoderate, base and high scenario (2006 to 2020)................................................25

Figure 7-4: Balancing of monthly demand and supply of (firm) energy formoderate, base and high scenario (2006 to 2031)................................................26




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List of Tables

Table 1-1: Definition of demand forecast scenarios ................................................7

Table 2-1: Data requested and utilized for demand forecast report ......................17

Table 4-1: Electrification ratio and rate, households and population (2006 - 2011)30

Table 4-2: Transmission system length by voltage level .......................................44

Table 4-3: Transmission projects commissioned in the past years ....................... 44

Table 4-4: Power generation capacities and contribution to peak production (2011)47

Table 4-5: Projects under construction..................................................................48

Table 4-6: Committed projects (in tendering process or tendering completed) .....48

Table 4-7: Projects in planning stage (transmission plan).....................................50

Table 4-8: Existing hydro and thermal power generation facilities ........................ 58

Table 4-9: Committed hydro and thermal power generation facilities....................65

Table 5-1: Definition of demand forecast scenarios ................................................4

Table 6-1: Electrification ratios on state and national level (2009 2031) moderate scenario ..................................................................................................9

Table 6-2: Electrification ratios on state and national level (2009 2031) basescenario ................................................................................................................ 14

Table 6-3: Electrification ratios on state level (2009 to 2021) and national level(2009 2031) high scenario...............................................................................19

Table 7-1: Balancing of demand and supply of peak load (MW) and energy formoderate, base and high scenario (2012 to 2031)................................................27




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Abbreviations and Acronyms

AC Air Condition

AG

CBS

Associated Gas

Central Bureau of Statistics

CCGT

CO2

Combined Cycle gas Turbine

Carbon Dioxide

DIU Dam Implementation Unit

EAC

EAPP

EPC

GDP

East African Community

Eastern Africa Power Pool

Engineering, Procurement, Construction

Gross Domestic Product

GO

GoS

Gasoil

Government of Sudan

GT

GWh

HCGO

HFO

HPP

HVDC

HzI&C

IDP

IMF

kV

Gas Turbine

Gigawatt Hours

Heavy Coked Gasoil

Heavy Fuel Oil

Hydro Power Plant

High Voltage Direct Current

Hertzinstrument and Control System

Internally Displaced People

International Monetary Fund

kilo Volt

LI Lahmeyer International GmbH

LMTPSP Long and Medium Term Power System Plans

LPG

MED

Liquefied Petroleum Gas

Ministry of Electricity and Dams (now: MWRE)

MVA

MW

MWh

MWRE

NEC

Megavolt Ampere

Megawatt

Megawatt Hours

Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity

National Electricity Cooperation

NG

NOx,

Natural Gas

Nitrogen Oxide

OPEX Operational Expenditure

RMS

SEDCo

Root-Mean-Square Value

Sudanese Electricity Distribution Company Ltd.




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SETCo Sudanese Electricity Transmission Company Ltd.

SHGC Sudanese Hydropower Generation Company Ltd.

SLD S/S Single Line Diagram

SOx, Sulphur Oxide

ST

STPG

Steam Turbine

Sudanese Thermal Power Generation Company Ltd.

TPP

UN

UN-HABITAT

WEO

WP

Thermal Power Plant

United Nations

United Nations Human Settlements Programme,

World Economic Outlook (IMF)

Work Package




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1 Executive summary

1.1 Conclusion

As part of the Long and Medium Term Power System Plans 2012-2031, this report sum-marizes the results of Work Package II - Demand and Supply Balancing containing thedemand analysis and forecast and of Work Package III - Evaluation of Existing Facilities

for the existing and committed power generation plants and the electrical transmissionand distribution network. Lahmeyer International (LI) provided the consultancy services forthe development of these plans in 2012 on behalf of the Ministry1 of Electricity and Dams

(MED).

This report provides the basis for the power system expansion planning by Identifying the driving factors for demand and consumption characteristics;

Identifying the characteristics and limits of the power sector to serve this demand;

Developing sound forecast scenarios for energy demand and peak demand; and

Identifying future supply gaps

The preparation of the demand forecast included the definition of three scenarios:

1) Moderate Scenario: applying key assumptions based on the historic development.

The results by grid-connected electrification has to be supplemented by off grid

electrification in rural areas to meet the electrification targets for 2031 of not lessthan 80% on national and not less than 50% on state level.

2) Base Scenario: applying the average of the moderate and high scenarios and their

assumptions considering that the electrification target of 80% in 2031 will be large-

ly met by grid-connected electrification supplemented by off grid electrification inrural areas

3) High Scenario: applying the electrification targets of 80% to be reached throughgrid-connected electrification only. Off grid electrification in rural areas will furtherincrease the overall electrification ratio and have to supplement the grid connected

electrification ratio on state level to meet not less than 70% on state level.

Each of the demand scenario forecasts several hundred megawatts of additional peakload and gigawatt hours of additional demand for energy to be served during the next

years. In order to achieve the forecasted results for peak demand, energy need and elec-trification, all scenarios require considerable expansion and reinforcement measures for

the transmission and distribution network. In particular, the base and high scenario require

extensive technical and financial resources, a challenge for the expansion of the powersystem.

Various projects are committed and are under construction to keep up with this growing

demand. However, various delays and uncertainties the future fuel supply of the thermal

1In 2012 MED changed into the Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity (MWRE). For the sake

of consistency the old name and abbreviation (MED) will be kept where the text refers to the past.




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plants put their future availability at risk. If they are delayed there will be a considerablesupply gap for the demand increase of the moderate scenario in the near future, let alone

if the higher growth rates of the base and high scenario are going to materialise. Even a

timely commissioning of the committed plants will mean a supply gap for the moderatescenario until 2015 and will require additional capacity from 2017 onwards. If the base andhigh demand forecast materialises additional efforts to increase the supply capacity will

have to be started immediately. How this expansion of generation capacity should ideally

happen considering the characteristics of the demand and the existing power system aswell as the potential energy and technology sources will be dealt with in the successive

reports on the expansion candidates.

1.2 Acknowledgement

Lahmeyer Internationals engineering team would like to express his sincerest thanks to

the entire management and engineering team of the Ministry, in particular the projectmanagement, taking part in this study, as well as all participating specialists from the indi-

vidual electricity companies for fully supporting him in gathering all material compiled inthis report.

1.3 Compendium

1.3.1 Frame conditions for demand analysis and forecast

The size of Sudan with some 1.9 million square kilometres poses a challenge for the con-

nection and supply of the periphery with the centre for instance with regard to transport

and power supply and the secession of South Sudan in July 2011 causes uncertainty andrisk for the planning within this study.

The population of Sudan is estimated at 35 million people for 2012. The main demograph-ic characteristics of Sudan with a strong impact on power demand are a high populationgrowth, high share of rural, nomadic and displaced population, a low population density

and unequal distribution of its population among its states.

The correlation between electricity consumption (total and by sector) and economicgrowth in Sudan is very high. The crude oil production has a high influence to the econo-

my. Since the political and economic situation of the Sudanese economy on national level,by sector and on state level is very uncertain, the demand forecast is solely based on his-

toric developments.

Power system in Sudan structure and policy

The power sector in Sudan went through considerable developments in recent years:

Demand for energy has increased through the demographic as well as economicdevelopment of Sudan and is expected to further increase;

Generation capacity has tripled during the past seven years and several new pro-

jects are under construction or in the planning stage considering the enormousdomestic energy potential;




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The power sector has undergone a major reform.

As part of the current energy policy, it is the aim of the Government of Sudan (GoS) to:

Increase the overall national electrification ratio to at least 80% by 2031;

Connect all states of Sudan to the national grid by 2031 - as far as practicable;

Utilize a high share of domestic energy sources - as far as practicable;

Utilize a high share of renewable energy sources considering economic and tech-

nical limitations;

Diversify the energy sources - as far as practicable - in order to increase securityof supply and reduce dependency;

Utilize all hydro potential in the country - as far as practicable.

Power system in Sudan consumption

Presently electricity only accounts for 2% of the total energy use in the country. This is

mainly because the Sudanese national power grid covers only a small portion of the coun-try. Regions not covered by the national grid rely on isolated grids or energy substitutes

such as kerosene. In mid-2011 there were nearly 1.7 million customers connected to thenational power grid of which more than 85% were domestic. The electrification rate for thewhole country is about 30%. During the past six years, the number of customers doubled

with an annual average increase of 12% indicating that the electrification advances. Thereare technical and economic restrictions to extend the national grid to the rural areas.

Therefore, off grid rural electrification has to be considered

During the past decade the consumption increased by an average of 14% per year. Whilethe share of domestic and governmental consumption of total consumption remained sta-

ble at about 50% and 14% respectively, the industrial share decreased from 22% in 2000

to 16% in 2011. In the same period, the share of agricultural consumption doubled tonearly 5% and the commercial consumption increased from 12% to 15%. Industrial andagricultural show no considerable seasonality of demand. Commercial, governmental and

domestic consumption instead increases by up to 50% during the month March to Octo-

ber.

The consumption by consumer group differs from state to state. These characteristicsmirror partly the economic structure of the country: the states of the Greater Khartoum

Area show a higher share of industrial consumers and the states of the Nile valley have ahigher agricultural consumption. The average specific consumption during the past five

years was stable.

The 100 largest customers in the country account for more than 11% of the total con-sumption and 7% of the systems peak demand. This dominance of few large consumers

means a strong influence on the present and future energy demand in these sectors.However, more than 1.5 million small domestic, commercial and governmental consumers

determine the lions share of the total consumption.

Various forms of suppressed demand exist, mainly curtailed demand due to poor securityand quality of power supply and non-served demand due to insufficient ability to pay for




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connection and electricity and insufficient coverage of power grid. The overall suppresseddemand in Sudan is estimated at three to four times the current demand. This rough esti-

mate can serve as a reference point for the current and future electricity supply.

Due to missing reliable information within this study it is assumed that the relative electrici-ty prices remain in the historic range; thus, allowing the use of historic consumption data.

Power system in Sudan load characteristics

During the past ten years, the annual peak load in Sudan grew steadily at around 13% per

year, similar to the growth of energy consumption. In 2011, the annual peak load was

1,517 MW (gross, at generator output), nearly double the peak load in 2006. The loadcurve of the national grid varies between seasons as well as between weekday and

weekend day.

Power system in Sudan transmission and distribution

The existing electrical network in Sudan has been designed for an operating voltage level

up to 500 kV. Therefore the network can transfer generated electricity from remote hydro-power plants like Merowe HPP, and Roseires HPP to the main load centres of the countrylike Khartoum area. Several other production sites are locally supporting the load demand,

especially in Khartoum itself and sites in the eastern states, i.e. Sennar, Al Gadarif andRed Sea. During the last decade, the electricity authorities have implemented various

generation and transmission projects.

Though considerably expanded and strengthened in the past, the Sudanese electricalnetwork faces various challenges in the medium and long term, for instance:

Rise of load from the existing load centres through existing and partly deficient

network: increasing the risk of faults and the need for reinforcements;

Rise of load from new distant load centres to be connected to the national grid(e.g. the Darfur region which is currently isolated) through long distance transmis-

sion and distribution lines: increasing the risk of voltage fluctuations;

The governments ambitious plan to considerably increase the electrification of the

country both in terms of states and households connected requiring a significantlyincrease of investments in electrification projects;

Levelling the seasonal fluctuation of hydro power generation and firm capacity withthermal generation at other generation sites;

Integration of generation from intermittent renewable energy sources such as windand solar energy: requiring an efficient monitoring- and dispatch system.

To face these challenges, some projects are under construction or in the tendering or

planning phase.

Losses in the transmission and distribution network in 2011 amounted to 5% and 13%respectively. For this study, transmission losses are assumed to remain at 5%, distribution

losses are expected to decrease to 12% based on on-going energy efficiency pro-




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grammes. Non-technical losses are assumed negligible due to the installation of pre-paidmeters.

Power system in Sudan generation

The generation sector in Sudan is determined by two main factors:

The high share of hydropower through low operational costs; and

The fluctuation of the underlying water source throughout the year requiring addi-tional thermal generation.

Due to the low operating costs, hydropower has a high share of the power generation in

Sudan. Base load is provided mainly by hydro power plants, i.e. Merowe, Roseires and

three small HPP, and to a lesser extent by thermal generation based on steam units atKhartoum North and Garri. Intermediate and peak load is predominantly provided by hy-

dro power, i.e. Merowe and to a smaller extent Roseires, depending also of irrigation de-

mands. During the dry season thermal generation contributes a small share to intermedi-ate and peak load. This derives from the flexible but also more costly CCGT based gener-

ation at Garri and GT based generation in Khartoum North. Since this capacity is currentlyunderutilised, this contribution can be further expanded in future.

The power generation in Sudan strongly depends on the supply characteristics of the en-

ergy sources. For hydro energy, there is a strong seasonal fluctuation of available dis-charge and head. The periods of low head in the reservoir coincide with the periods ofhigh demand for electric energy and power. Further constraints restrict the operation of

HPP. These are the needs for the irrigation as well as the passing through of the high wa-ter wave to avoid reservoir sedimentation. These facts restrict the utilisation of HPP in

terms of storing energy and providing regulating power to the grid. In addition, there are

inter-annual fluctuations of hydro sources. Hence, part of the hydropower generation ca-pacity has to be backed up with fossil fuel based generation. Fossil-fuelled thermal gener-ation is necessary for this back-up as well as for providing stability to the electrical net-

work. However, the associated generation costs are comparatively high, except for the

sponge coke based generation of Garri 4 and HCGO based generation in KhartoumNorth.

The committed power plants will on the one hand increase the share of fossil fuel in the

overall generation mix. On the other hand, the Upper Atbara HPP, a peaking plant, will becapable of providing a considerable amount of regulating power to the system, though at a

far distance from the load centres. If all committed plants are realized as scheduled theaverage available energy will nearly double within the next five years from around 13,000GWh in 2012 to nearly 24,000 GWh in 2017 which is nearly three times the energy gener-

ation in 2011.

Assumptions and scenario definition

The actual demand for energy is the result of many factors comprising economic, tech-

nical, demographic and political factors. In order to prepare a plausible demand forecast itis neither possible nor reasonable to model all interrelations between these factors. For




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this study, the frame conditions with the strongest effect on the demand were identifiedand analysed. These driving factors provide the frame for defining the assumptions for

each demand scenario.

For Sudan these driving factors for demand are:

1. Theeconomic development of the country: this is the most prominent factor since it

provides in the long-term the income on state level to finance the expansion of the

power system and on consumer level to expand and pay for the use of electricity

among existing and new customers. This issue is described in sections 3.4and4.2.1.

2. Policies and development plans for industrial, commercial and agricultural pro-

jects: these projects for economic development might boost the electricity demand in

particular sectors and regions, beyond the usual development. These projects are notdirectly considered in this study because of the high uncertainty whether and when

these projects and policies will be realized. However, they are indirectly covered bydifferent assumptions on connection rates for the different scenarios.

3. Thecapacity of the power sector to implement the power system projects , i.e.

the kind of projects, their volume and implementation time in the past. This includes forinstance

a. Thedevelopment of transmission projects so that currently not connected

areas and their population can be served, i.e. how many kilometres of over-head lines will be implemented in what time. This issue is determined by thecapacity of the responsible institutions and the financial resources. It is de-

scribed in section4.3. For each forecast scenario average transmission ex-pansion capacities were assumed. They are understood as the long-term av-

erage expansion in kilometre per year of the different transmission paths (e.g.

towards Darfur or Port Sudan). They are based on the experience with projectsin the past and include not only the average construction duration but also anydelay in the overall planning process. For each locality currently not connected

to the national grid the distance to the existing transmission network was esti-

mated so that for each scenario the number of years could be estimated untilthe electrification of the locality.

b. Thedevelopment of distribution projects to connect new customers to the

existing transmission system and the extension of the transmission grid men-

tioned in the previous bullet point. This issue is described in sections 4.2.1and4.2. The expansion of the distribution network includes the contribution of cus-tomers to the expenses. This will be considered in the investment plan.

4. Thefinancial resourcesto realize power system projects, e.g. power plants, the ex-

tension of the transmission and distribution grids. This issue is influenced by theabove-mentioned economic development and has a strong impact that the extension

of the power grid will be realized.

5. Theconsumption patterns of the connected consumers:this indicates daily, sea-

sonal and regional consumption typical for Sudan, which can be used to estimate thefuture development of the connected consumers and the probable consumption pat-

terns of any new consumers. This issue is described in section 4.2.




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The assumptions applied in this study for the three demand forecast scenarios are sum-marized in the following table.

Table 1-1: Definition of demand forecast scenarios

ScenarioTopic

Moderate scenario Base scenario High scenario

Briefdescription

Based on assumptionsestablished by the Consult-ant for a probable develop-ment based on the historicdevelopment.

Based on the arithmeticaverage of the other twoscenarios and their as-sumptions; considering thatthe electrification target of80% will be largely met bygrid-connected electrifica-

tion supplemented by offgrid electrification in ruralareas.

Based on electrificationtargets of 80% to bereached through grid-connected electrificationonly and providing assump-tions (e.g. expansion capac-ities) to be fulfilled to reach

these targets, assuming onaverage higher availableexpansion capacities than inthe past.

Metho-dology

The forecast was based on the projection of historic data under consideration of projectson the locality and state level, i.e. combining trend projection and bottom-up approach

(further information in section2.3).

Demo-graphy

Population distribution and growth as provided by CBS (Census 2008 and forecast; dataand further information in section 3.3,Annex 2andAnnex 5)

Geography,administra-

tive area

Structured along previous administrative structure of 15 states,all areas currently claimed by the GoS included

(for further information see section3.1and3.2)

Economy The demand forecast was solely based on historic developments and did not consider anyGDP forecast since no reliable data was available (further information in section 3.4).

Powergeneration

Sufficient power generation capacity assumed

Trans-missionextension

100 km per year averageextension per plannedtransmission line pro-

ject/path, 200 km for com-mitted projects





Sufficient capacity of transmission lines to transmit all future power

(further information on the transmission system in section4.3; estimated distances fortransmission line projects/path by localityAnnex 5)




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ScenarioTopic

Moderate scenario Base scenario High scenario

Distribution

extension

Average total new connec-

tions per year similar tohistoric average 2009 -2011 (about 220,000 newconnections of whichabout 200,000 domestic -per year for all Sudan).

Connection rates of newlyconnected areas (localities)similar to connections ofnew areas in the past fordomestic connections andconnection characteristics ofthe state for other customertypes.


tions per year to reachelectrification target of be-tween moderate and highscenario (about 270,000new connections of whichabout 235,000 domestic -per year for all Sudan).

Connection rates of newlyconnected areas (localities)between moderate and highscenario.


tions per year to reach elec-trification target of 80%(about 320,000 new con-nections of which about270,000 domestic - per yearfor all Sudan).

Connection rates of newlyconnected areas (localities)double of moderate scenar-io.

For years where the urban share of the population in the state exceeds the electrificationratio a higher connection rate is assumed (+10%) to simulate the higher potential for elec-

trification in these states (further information in section 4.2.1and4.2.4)

Electrifi-cationratio

Output of demand forecast(electrification ratio throughgrid connected electrifica-tion; supplemented by offgrid electrification in ruralareas to meet at least 50%electrification ratio on statelevel, see section2.3.3)

Output of demand forecast(Arithmetic average of otherscenarios; electrificationtarget of 80% will be largelymet by grid connected elec-trification (average of mod-erate and high scenario)supplemented by off gridelectrification in rural areas

to meet at least 60% electri-fication ratio on state level, ,see section2.3.3)

80% electrification ratio in2031 through grid connec-tion only as main input fordemand forecast (supple-mented by off grid electrifi-cation in rural areas to meetat least 70% electrificationratio on state level, , seesection2.3.3)

Financing &capacity ofpowersector

Restrictions of capacity and financial resources according to the historic transmission anddistribution extension capacity,

Electricityconsump-tion / abilityand willing-ness to pay

Specific consumption and its increase according to historic average on state level assum-ing that electricity prices, i.e. willingness and ability to pay based on tariffs and income

remain in the historic range and consumption increases of connected consumers will belevelled by (lower) consumption of new consumers

(further information in section4.2.1and4.2.6)

New pro-jects

New projects included in assumptions on new connections and specific consumption; shiftof captive power to grid power limited to 150 MW in Port Sudan and 65 MW in Atba-

ra/River Nile(further information in section4.2.1).

Losses Transmission losses 5%, distribution losses 12% (2016 onwards)(further information in section1.1)

Load factor 63% for most of the study period with a decline to 61% in 2018 to model the coincidence ofhigh peak demand caused by high temperature and by Ramadan

(further information in section4.2.3)




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1.3.2 Forecast results

Below the forecasted development of the annual peak load is shown for all three scenari-

os.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

[MW]

Moderate scenario

Base scenario

High scenario

Peak load (annual, sent-

out) historic

Figure 1-1: Peak load moderate, base and high scenario (2006 - 2031)

They key results for each scenario are as follows.

Moderate scenario

For the moderate scenario, demand for energy and peak load are forecasted to grow byan average annual rate of 10.9% for the period until 2021, 4.5% for the period 2021 to

2031 and 7.7% for the whole study period. On average 250 MW of load and 1,400 GWh of

energy consumption at generation sent-out level is added every year. Energy generation(sent-out), energy consumption (billed) and peak load will reach 36,000 GWh,

30,000 GWh and 6,500 MW in 2031, respectively. For this scenario, some 1.3 million ofnew connections, 90% domestic, would be necessary until 2016.

The electrification ratio is forecasted to grow by nearly two percentage points per year. It

will reach 62% in 2031. This forecasted electrification ratio relates to the electrification ofhouseholds connected to the national grid or large isolated grids. The overall electrifica-




18/10/2012 Page 10260690

tion ratio will be higher if measures for rural electrification, e.g. micro-grids or solar homesystems, are taken into account. Based on the electrification targets on state level to

reach an electrification ratio of at least 50% and 80% on national level this would sum up

to additional 18%, resulting in a total electrification ratio of 80% if the targets are reached.

Base scenario

For the base scenario, demand for energy and peak load are forecasted to grow by anaverage annual rate of 12.5% for the period until 2021, 4.5% for the period 2021 to 2031

and 8.4% for the whole study period. On average 280 MW of load and 1,600 GWh of en-

ergy consumption at generation sent-out level is added every year Energy generation(sent-out), energy consumption (billed) and peak load will reach 41,000 GWh,34,000 GWh and 7,400 MW in 2031, respectively. For this scenario, some 1.6 million of

new connections, 90% domestic, would be necessary until 2016. Detailed results of thedemand forecast by sector and year provided inAnnex 6.

The electrification ratio is forecasted to grow by an average of two percentage points per

year. It will reach 71% in 2031. This forecasted electrification ratio relates to the electrifi-cation of households connected to the national grid or large isolated grids. The overallelectrification ratio will be higher if measures for rural electrification, e.g. micro-grids or

solar home systems, are taken into account. Based on the electrification targets on statelevel to reach an electrification ratio of at least 60% this would sum up to additional 13%,resulting in a total electrification ratio of 84% if the targets are reached.

With regard to electrification, the base scenario is ambitious since the envisaged electrifi-cation target exceeds the urban share of population from 2013 onwards, e.g. 71% electri-

fication ratio in 2031 compared to forecasted 55% urban population. To achieve this elec-

trification ratio the implementation of the envisaged projects for transmission and distribu-tion has to be in the range as scheduled in the scenarios assumptions which might betechnically and economically challenging.

High scenario

For the high scenario, demand for energy and peak load are forecasted to grow by an

average annual rate of 14% for the period until 2021, 4.3% for the period 2021 to 2031and 9% for the whole study period. On average 330 MW of load and 1,800 GWh of energyconsumption at generation sent-out level is added every year. Energy generation (sent-

out), energy consumption (billed) and peak load will reach 46,000 GWh, 39,000 GWh and8,400 MW in 2031, respectively. For this scenario, some 2.4 million 2 of new connections,90% domestic, would be necessary until 2016, i.e. the overall connections would have to

more than double within five years which is nearly impossible given the current capacity ofthe organisations involved. Detailed results of the demand forecast by sector and year

provided inAnnex 6.

2This is in the range of the medium term plan of SEDCo if an average load of 50% for the planned

transformers is assumed.




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The high scenario is considered very ambitious even technically nearly impossible due tothe targeted high share of grid-connected electrification. It exceeds the urban share of

population from 2013 onwards, e.g. 80% electrification ratio in 2031 compared to fore-

casted 55% urban population. This means that compared to the other scenarios an in-creasingly higher share of rural areas have to be electrified with electrical networks. Thiswill cause technical and financial challenges and might not be the most economical ap-

proach for the electrification.

The high scenario is considered very ambitious due to the targeted high share of grid-connected electrification. It exceeds the urban share of population from 2013 onwards,

e.g. 80% electrification ratio in 2031 compared to forecasted 55% urban population. Thismeans that compared to the other scenarios an increasingly higher share of rural areashave to be electrified with electrical networks, which might not be the most economical

approach for the electrification.

Demand supply balancing

If compared on an annual basis for the most critical month (i.e. August) the existing andcommitted capacity will not be sufficient to meet the forecasted peak demand for any sce-nario if the reserve margin requirements are considered (even if the committed power

plants are commissioned as scheduled).

However, for the moderate scenario (green continuous and dotted lines) the existing andcommitted capacity nearly covers the forecasted demand and reserve margin.

The supply gap between 2012 and 2016 is in a range of 15 to 330 MW for the moderatescenario, 154 to 580 MW for the base scenario (blue continuous and dotted lines) and 254

to 880 MW for the high scenario (yellow continuous and dotted lines).

If no reserve margin is considered, the available capacity will be able to meet the fore-casted demand for the moderate and base scenarios until 2018 and 2016, respectively,with a supply gap for the base scenario in 2015. For the high demand scenario, there is

not sufficient capacity to provide secure supply to the forecasted demand from 2012 on-

wards.

If compared on a monthly basis the picture slightly changes (compared to the aggregatedannual view). Of course the above conclusion for the annual view remains. However, thesupply situation for the next years is only critical for the months August and July. Due to

the much higher head, mainly at Merowe, the remaining months of the year see enough

capacity to meet the monthly peak demand.

With increasing peak demand this situation will worsen during the next years since up to

2016 when Upper Atbara HPP will be available - no considerable capacity increase willoccur. Typical hydrological conditions and monthly demand patterns assumed, the supply

situation will become critical for more than one month:




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For the high scenario already in 2013 the capacity will not be enough for the months Juneto August. Already in 2015, the peak demand (without reserve margin) will considerably

overshoot the available capacity.

For the base scenario in 2015 for the period May to September the demand is forecastedto go beyond the available capacity. Not before 2020, the peak demand (without reservemargin) will considerably overshoot the available capacity.

For the moderate scenario in 2013 and 2014 the existing and committed capacity will be

sufficient. For June to August 2015, the demand (including reserve margin) is assumed toexceed the capacity though only slightly. 2016 sufficient capacity is expected throughout

the year due to the Upper Atbara plant. For 2017, only August might see capacity short-ages to meet peak demand and reserve margins. Only from 2018 onwards, periods ofseveral months might see critical supply situation, and not before 2020, the peak demand

(without reserve margin) will considerably overshoot the available capacity. .

Up to 2031, the supply gap is forecasted to reach for the most critical month 3,900 MW forthe moderate scenario (compared to about 2,000 MW during the less critical winter

months), 4,700 MW for the base scenario (about 3,000 MW during the winter months) and5,700 MW for the high scenario (about 3,500 MW during the winter months). This means

that the available capacity has to more than double for the moderate scenario and triple

for the high scenario.

For the high scenario, years with low hydro conditions (equal to firm energy assumptions)might cause energy shortages already in 2015 based on the existing and committed pow-

er plants. For all scenarios, the capacity to meet peak demand becomes critical far earlier

than firm energy. Concluding, the available energy exceeds the forecasted energy de-mand by far for all demand scenarios.




18/10/2012 Page 13260690

2 Introduction

In 2011, the Ministry of Electricity and Dams3 (MED) has contracted Lahmeyer Interna-tional (LI) for the consultancy services for the development of

1. A long term power system planning study to cover the period 2012-2031; and

2. A medium term plan for the period 2012 2016.

This report summarizes the results of Work Package II - Demand and Supply Balancingcontaining the demand analysis and forecast for the period 2012 to 2031. It further in-

cludes the outcome of Work Package III - Evaluation of Existing Facilities for the existingand committed power generation plants and the electrical transmission and distribution

network.

2.1 Objectives

The purpose of the demand analysis and forecast and the successive demand supplybalancing is to provide a sound basis for the power system expansion planning by

Identifying the driving factors for demand and consumption characteristics;

Identifying the characteristics and limits of the power sector to serve this demand;

Developing sound forecast scenarios for energy demand and peak demand; and

3In 2012 MED changed into the Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity (MWRE). For the sake

of consistency the old name and abbreviation (MED) will be kept where the text refers to the past.

Note:The forecasts provided in this report are not statements of what will happen but

of what might happen, given the described assumptions and methodologies.

In particular, the forecasts assume trends that are consistent with historical and current

developments with regard to population, economy, policy as well as the power sector.It relies on particular projects and expansions in the power sector to be realised with

regard to generation as well as transmission and distribution/electrification. It further isbased in part on general assumptions where no sufficient and reliable data was availa-ble.

Given the very high uncertainty of the political and economic frame conditions in Su-dan the reader should carefully study the described assumptions and critically reviewthe latest developments in Sudan in general and the power sector in particular before

using any of the results.

This critical review and regular update of the demand forecasts is essential for any

planning process based thereupon.




18/10/2012 Page 14260690

Identifying future supply gaps so that the optimal capacity, location, and technolo-gy for generation and transmission & distribution projects can be determined dur-

ing the expansion planning process.

In the course of this process, the demand analysis and forecast have to address the fol-lowing challenges:

Forecasts are uncertain per definition and experience;

The reliability and completeness of data varies;

To differentiate between desired and economically and technically achievable tar-gets for power supply;

Have to consider the trade-off between costs of under and over building.

2.2 Structure of report

The report consists of seven main sections:

1) Executive summary, providing a brief overview of the assumptions and results;

2) Introduction, providing the reports background and approach;

3) Description of theframe conditionswhich have an impact on the demand for

electricity, i.e. geography, policy, demography and economy;

4) Description and analysis of thepower system in Sudan, comprising the whole

supply chain (generation, transmission, distribution and consumption) and detailing

special characteristics such as losses and seasonal and daily load. This sections

contains the outcome of Work Package III - Evaluation of Existing Facilities;

5) Definition ofassumptions and scenariosbased on the previous sections out-

come as well as lessons learnt from previous forecasts;

6) Thedemand forecast resultsfor each of the defined scenarios;

7) Identification of future supply gaps bybalancing the forecasted demand and

supplyof the existing and committed generation facilities;

8) Summarize the main findings and related recommendations in theconclusionsection.

2.3 Methodology and assumptions

This section summarizes the approach applied for the forecast, details the data situation

and provides an overview of the general assumptions and definitions chosen.




18/10/2012 Page 15260690

2.3.1 Approach

The demand analysis and forecast were conducted along the following approach:

Figure 2-1: Approach demand analysis and forecast

1) Data collection

LI defined data and information requirements and developed a data inventory;

LI contributed data available from past and on-going projects in Sudan and provid-ed the list of remaining data requirements4 to MED5.This included a questionnairedeveloped to facilitate the data collection on state level and from institutions on na-

tional level;

MED collected, verified and forwarded the data to LI;

LI reviewed the data provided by MED and provided recommendations and as-

sumptions for identified data gaps;

MED approved the final data set provided by LI.

2) Assessment of current and historic energy consumption characteristics focusing on

Seasonal and daily load patterns including load system factor,

Current and expected consumption patterns by consumer groups and state,

Unmet (suppressed) demand,

Current and past electrification rate, on-going and projected electrification policiesand targets, existing isolated grids,

Macro-economic and demographic factors with an impact on the demand,

Deviations between former demand projections and actual demand.

3) Elaboration of demand growth rates and demand driving factors (developments of

major consumer groups as well as power generation / transmission / distribution

projects under construction or already committed).

4) Development of an approach based on experience from previous studies in Sudanand from similar counties; combining:

4The data requirements and the questionnaire are provided in

Annex 15 In 2012, the MED changed into the Ministry of Water Resources and Electricity (MWRE). Most ofthe data collection and analysis was completed under the MED.




18/10/2012 Page 16260690

Trend-projection (taking into account correction factors based on comparisons offormer planned and actual performance figures). The assumptions are based

largely on historic data analysis (e.g. for consumption & connections). Thereby the

analysis considers the potential capacity and limits of power system to expandwhich is mirrored in this data. Further, information with a higher uncertainty, for in-stance plans for power supply and economy, play a minor role.

Bottom-up forecast approach by adding loads derived from large projects on thedemand side, but also on the expansion of the distribution and transmission sys-tem. This approach considers the interdependency of demand and supply: the

identified demand is the basis for supply projects (e.g. transmission lines & electri-

fication) but if these projects are not developed demand will not develop as pro-jected

Different scenario definition which are not limited to sensitivities (e.g. high & lowgrowth) but different views, i.e. the electrification ratio (grid connected) is a result

of scenario 1 (moderate) and an assumption (input) for scenario 2 (high) to mirrorthe political intention

Regional view by assessing demand and projects on a state by state and wherepossible locality by locality level.

5) Definition of three scenarios for the development of demand based on the demandanalysis results:

a) Moderate Scenario: applying key assumptions established by the Consult-

ant for a probable development based on the historic development. The re-

sulting by grid-connected electrification has to be supplemented by off grid

electrification in rural areas to meet the electrification targets for 2031: notless than 80% on national level and not less than 50% on state level.

b) Base Scenario: applying the arithmetic average of the moderate and highscenarios and their assumptions considering that the electrification target of

80% in 2031 will be largely met by grid-connected electrification supple-mented by off grid electrification in rural areas, also to meet the electrifica-tion target of not less than 60% on state level.

c) High Scenario: applying the electrification targets of 80% to be reachedthrough grid-connected electrification only and providing assumptions (e.g.

expansion capacities) to be fulfilled to reach these targets. Off grid electrifi-

cation in rural areas will further increase the overall electrification ratio and

have to supplement the grid connected electrification ratio on state level tomeet not less than 70% on state level.

A low scenario below the moderate scenario and based on more conservative as-sumptions on the future economic and power system related development was notconsidered.

6) Development of a spread-sheet based tool containing the data used and the main

forecast instruments.




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2.3.2 Data analysis and data validated

The reliability and completeness of the underlying data is essential for the accurateness of

any forecast. Within this study, numerous data sources were used for collection and re-view of data. Some sources provided data which LI considered complete and reliable.This includes for instance the power system metering data of the Load Dispatch Centre,

the consumption data based on pre-paid metering, and some demographic data based onthe very recent 2008 census. Other data sets were incomplete or not available at all, inparticular with regard to economic development and future projects. The level of availabil-

ity and reliability differed from state to state partly due to the political situation. Hence, asmany assumptions as possible were derived from the more reliable data sets. However,

various assumptions for the scenario definitions base on rather unreliable data or more

general, deduced assumptions. These uncertainties are mentioned in the respective sec-tions. The table below summarizes the requested and utilized data by category and pro-vides a brief description on the quality (complete, up-to-date, reliable) and related uncer-

tainties.

Table 2-1: Data requested and utilized for demand forecast report

Data cate-gory

Source Description Data quality and uncertainties

Energypolicy

MED Current and intended policyon power supply (incl. tariffs,& subsidies)

Information sufficient for demand forecast.

Demogra-phy CBS Population and householdsize by locality and ur-ban/rural areas and growth

Data complete, up-to-date and reliable withsome uncertainty normal for these kind ofdata and region. Main uncertainty due topolitical situation.

Geography,administra-tive area

CBS, UN,LI

Area and borders for statesand localities

Data complete and reliable (though it doesnot include the latest reforms on state bor-ders) with some uncertainty due to the politi-cal situation.

Economy CBS, IMF GDP development by sectorand state in recent yearsand forecast (missing), eco-nomic situation and potentialon national and state level

(missing), socio-economicsituation of population

Data complete, up-to-date and reliable onlyon national level. Information on state level,forecasts and on socio-economic situationmissing, hence general assumptions applied,which are largely uncertain due to political

situation. No GDP forecast available, norreliable assumption possible.

Power gen-erationfacilities

MED, LI Technical specification ofexisting and committedplants and historic genera-tion

Data nearly complete and reliable with veryfew and small variations between differentsources. Uncertainty for committed plantsdue to uncertain fuel supply and financing.

Electricalnetwork

MED(SETCo,SEDCo),LI

Technical specifications ofexisting and commit-ted/planned power lines andsubstations; losses (historicdevelopment and futureplans), grid code

Data nearly complete and largely reliable withfew variations between different sources.Uncertainty for future projects due to uncer-tainty of financing.




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Data cate-gory

Source Description Data quality and uncertainties

Electricity

consump-tion- historic

MED

(SEDCo)

Consumption and customers

by state/locality and sector,large customers and sup-pressed demand for recentyears, load curves

Data complete, up-to-date and reliable for

recent years due to high penetration of pre-paid metering and accurate load measure-ment on substation level. Some variationbetween data sets which are tolerable for thisstudy. Quality on data on suppressed de-mand and large customers varies.

Electricityconsump-tion- future/planned

MED(SEDCo,variousstate &nationalorganisa-tions)

Expansion of distributionnetwork, potential futureconsumers (planned pro-

jects and current captivesuppliers)

Expansion plan for distribution network com-plete and up-to-date on aggregated level.Information on future projects and captivesuppliers incomplete and partly unreliablelimiting the possibility to include in bottom-upapproach.

2.3.3 Definitions

This section provides the most important definitions used in this report. For abbreviations

and acronyms, please refer to the overview on page x.

Ability and willingness to pay is the maximum price a consumer is able or willing to pay forelectricity.

Available capacity in this study is the generation capacity actually available to the powersystem at power plant sent-out. It is given for certain periods in the year (e.g. months orweeks) and should be daily available at least for the hours of peak demand. This parame-

ter is in particular important to assess the capacity of hydro power plants. Due to limitedwater sources they might have a lower firm capacity (i.e. capacity permanently availablefor a longer period) but a considerable peaking capability to serve the peak demand.

Available energy is the energy generation available to the power system at power plantsent-out on a long-term average.

Capacity and generation gross / net (sent-out): Gross capacity and generation include the

own/auxiliary consumption of the power plant, i.e. measured at generator output. Net orsent-out generation or capacity exclude the own consumption, i.e. measured at the trans-former output.

Consumption billed / gross: Billed consumption is the metred consumption excluding any

transmission and distribution losses (technical and non-technical). The gross consumptionincludes these losses and is equal to the net generation at power plant.

Capacity factor compares the actual output of a generating unit with the theoretical outputover a time period (on gross or net level).

Electrification ratio / rate: the electrification ratio is the percentage6 of the population sup-

plied with electricity.

Electrification rate is the annual percentage change of connections.

6Formula: Electrification ratio = Number of Domestic Connections * Average Household Size (for

the household size see section 4.2.1) / Total Population




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This study distinguishes between the electrification ratio deriving from the national gridand large isolated grids (grid-connected electrification) and the overall electrification ratio,

which includes also off-grid electrification, i.e. rural electrification measures. While this

study focused on the assumption for and calculation of the grid connected electrification,indicative figures are provided for off grid electrification to meet the overall electrificationtarget. The contribution of off grid (rural) electrification to the overall electrification ratio

was derived as follows: the minimum electrification target for the state level for 2031 (i.e.

50% for moderate, 60% for base, and 70% for high scenario) was applied. If these targetsare not achieved by grid connected electrification the balance was assumed to derive from

rural electrification, providing the rural electrification target for each state and scenario.Since no information on the actual off grid electrification was available, the present valuewas set to 0% and a linear growth of the electrification ratio was applied to achieve the

targeted level in 2031. Possible technologies for off-grid electrification are provided in theExpansion Candidates Report prepared within this study.

Firm capacity / energy is the mostly hydro related capacity and energy which are in thelong-term available for a certain period (i.e. year or month) with a determined probability,e.g. 90%.

Load factor is the average load faced by a generating system:

Scenario is one possible future development assuming certain assumptions for the under-lying frame conditions.

Specific consumption is the average consumption for all customers or a particular cus-

tomer type per year.

Suppressed / non-served / unmet demand: this summarizes demand for electricity which

could not be met for technical reasons (e.g. low reliability and quality of supply, no grid

connection possibility) or economic reasons (insufficient ability and willingness to pay forthe electricity). The demand is either served by alternative means of energy supply or notserved at all, often resulting in economic costs.




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3 Frame conditions for demand analysis and forecast

This section describes the general frame conditions in Sudan, which have an influence onthe demand and supply of energy.

3.1 Geographic frame

The Republic of Sudan7 lies in North East Africa8:

In the northeast, it has access to the Red Sea providing one major entry point fortrade and transport.

In the east, it shares borders with Eritrea and Ethiopia where the major share ofSudans Nile water flows into the country through the Blue Nile and the Atbara andtheir tributaries.

In the south, it shares its longest border with South Sudan where the remainingwater inflow occurs through the White Nile. The border is partly under negotiation

due to the recent secession of South Sudan.

In the west, Sudan shares relatively short borders with the Central African Repub-lic in the South and Libya in the North and a longer border in-between with Chad

reaching from desert land in the north to bush land further south.

In the north, Sudans second longest border passes mainly through the desert land

with Egypt. It crosses the river Nile carrying all water outflows.

With some 1.9 million square kilometres, Sudan is the third largest country in Africa and

the 16th largest country in the world. This size itself poses a challenge for the connectionand supply of the periphery with the centre, for instance with regard to transport and pow-er supply. Despite Sudans size, most of its topography is relatively flat.

The Nile basin is the largest landscape, which lies mostly in the eastern half of the country

reaching from the north to the south. The river Nile and its tributaries with several thou-sand kilometres of river courses and reservoirs have shaped this landscape and dominat-

ed the historic and present development of the country. Hence, the majority of the popula-

tion and most of the agricultural and economic activities are located in this area.

Vast desert areas of the Sahara - sparsely populated or uninhabited - extend in the north

and east of the country. Savannah and bush lands constitute the remaining areas.

7Within this study, Sudan stands for the Republic of Sudan after the secession of South Sudan on

9 July 2011 but including all areas currently claimed by the Government of Sudan. Any data on the

generation and consumption of electric energy before 2005 include also the area of South Sudanthough its share is only related to few isolated grids and considered negligible for this study.8

For a map showing Sudan, its neighbouring countries and main rivers please refer to Figure 3-1.




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3.2 Political and administrative frame

Sudan is sub-divided into 17 states9 and more than 130 localities. The largest states by

size are the North, Northern Darfur, Northern Kordufan and Read Sea; by populationKhartoum, Al Gezira, South Darfur and North Kordufan.

In general, the Sudanese government and administration is centralised. However, various

administrative issues are regulated on lower levels. For instance, the expansion of the

distribution grid happens on state level.

The secession of South Sudan in July 2011 and the developments that led to the split are

responsible for various uncertainties and risks on the political level, which also have animpact on the geographic, demographic, and economic level. For instance, the new line of

the border is under negotiation and several areas are claimed by both countries 10. This

related conflict and various internal conflicts have a negative impact on the regional but

also national economy, cause population to leave their home and restrict the access tocertain areas. Whether these issues will be settled in the near future as well as their out-

come is very uncertain. This also causes uncertainty and risk for the planning within this

study, both for the areas affected by the conflicts and for the national level.

The energy policy with regard to power supply is described in section 4.1.

3.3 Demographic frame

Based on a recent projected census11

conducted in 2008 the population of Sudan is esti-mated at 35 million people for 2012. The main demographic characteristics of Sudan with

a strong impact on power demand are a high population growth, high share of rural, no-

madic and displaced population, a low population density and unequal distribution of itspopulation among its states and landscapes.

Population distribution

With a density of 19 people per square kilometre, Sudan is among the least densely popu-lated countries in the world. The distribution of the population is very uneven as it is

shown with gradual colours in Figure 3-112. The settlement areas follow to some extentthe natural landscape: large desert areas in the north and west are nearly uninhabited.The Nile valley including its tributaries is home to the majority of the population and the

9An administrative reform in 2012 resulted in the split of West Darfur into W est Darfur and Central

Darfur and South Darfur into South Darfur and East Darfur as well as some changes on localitylevel. Before the reform, Sudan (North) consisted of 15 states. Since the reform is not fully imple-mented this study is based on the former structure of 15 states.10

Within this study, all areas (and their estimated population) currently claimed by the Republic ofSudan serve as the base area to be electrified. Hence, if in future these areas will not be under theresponsibility of Sudan this will have implications for the results, e.g. reduced efforts for electrifica-tion or a higher electrification ratio.11

Source for all demographic data: Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). The CBS population fore-cast covers the period up to 2019. Beyond that period an extrapolation by linear trend method was

applied based on the available years. Detailed demographic data used for this study is provided inAnnex 2.12

All maps are provided in A3 format in Annex 7.




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density on local authority (locality) level reaches in many areas several hundred peopleper square kilometre and beyond. The Darfur states are the second most important set-

tlement area with about 25% of the national population and population densities around

20 people/km

2

(up to 200 people/km

2

around the main towns). The third most importantarea connects the Nile valley and Darfur region through North and South Kordufan ac-counting for about 15% of the national population. Further, the Red Sea state holds many

larger towns.

Figure 3-1: Distribution of population and main towns in Sudan 12,13

In addition to the distribution of the population all over wide distances and areas in thecountry, the high share of rural, nomadic and displaced people hinders the provision of

power supply to Sudans population. About 60%14 - if Khartoum state is excluded nearly80% - of the total population live in rural or nomadic conditions. It is more difficult to bringelectricity to these in general more dispersed and smaller communities compared to the

40% urban population 30% of the population (12.5 million) which live in the 200 Sudanese

towns of 10,000 or more inhabitants. Most of these towns are already connected to thenational grid or isolated grids and contribute the lions share of the electrification. Hence,

the extension of the power supply to the rural areas will be the main task and challenge toachieve the envisaged electrification targets. As detailed in the Expansion CandidatesReport 8.3.4 Technology options for isolated grids and rural electrification there are

13Data by locality provided in Annex 5.

14Source: UN-HABITAT (2010): The State of African Cities




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technical and economic restrictions to extend the national grid to the rural areas. There-fore, off grid rural electrification has to be considered to supplement the extension of the

national grid. The important settlement areas of Darfur and Kordufan mentioned above

show a very high share of rural or nomadic population of up to 83%, in some of their lo-calities even 100% as it is shown in the pie charts in Figure 3-2 below. Compared to otherNorth African countries the urbanisation in Sudan is low but catching up in recent years.

The average annual growth of its urban population of over 4.3% is one third above the

overall population growth. For the forecast, this urbanisation is assumed to continue with55% urban population in 2030 as predicted by UN-HABITAT14. This requires an average

annual urban growth rate of 5%.

Figure 3-2: Share of urban, rural and nomadic population by locality in Sudan 12,13

The household size has an influence on the number of required or potential domesticconnections to the power grid. The average household in Sudan amounts to 5.7 15 people

with on average slightly more people in urban households (6.0) than in rural/nomadic

households (5.6). The household size does not vary much among the states. On localitylevel there are extreme values in a range of 4 to 9 people but most localities show a sizearound the average. For this study, the average rural and urban household sizes will be

applied throughout the study period assuming that there will be no considerable change.

15Previous statistics on the electrification ratio apply an average household size of 6.5. This higher

figure is applied in this study.




18/10/2012 Page 24260690

Population growth and migration

The annual population growth is 3.2% (about 1.1 million in absolute terms) which makes

Sudan one of the fastest growing countries in the world. The growth is expected to slowdown to 3.1% in 2015 and 2.9% in 2019 leading to 38 million in 2015, 44 million in 2020and 55 million towards the end of the study period. The growth rates by states are in awide range between 1% in Red Sea and North Kordofan and 4 to 5% in Khartoum, Kassa-

la, Al Gedarif and Sinnar but are expected to converge. The relatively high growth rates

eat up most of the extension of power supply in recent years leading to only moderategrowth rates for the electrification (see section 4.2.1for details). A change of the growth

rate is possible though only in the long term since it usually takes decades until currentmeasures or demographic changes will take effect. Therefore, the sa

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260690 WP II Demand Forecast Report FINAL Revision