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2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL Promoting convergence and wellbeing Lisbon, 18 February 2019 http:// www.oecd.org/economy/surveys/portugal-economic-snapshot @OECDeconomy @OECD

2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

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Page 1: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL

Promoting convergence and wellbeing

Lisbon, 18 February 2019

http://www.oecd.org/economy/surveys/portugal-economic-snapshot

@OECDeconomy@OECD

Page 2: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Key messages

• Further progress in improving public finances, reducing private debt and the health of the banking system can improve resilience to shocks

• Export performance can be enhanced through policies that better enable exporters to innovate and grow

• The efficiency of the judicial system can be further improved, thereby spurring economic activity

2

Page 3: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Economic recovery is well entrenched but further improvements in wellbeing are needed

3

Page 4: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

The economy is growing after a double dip recession

Source: OECD Economic Outlook.

Real GDP

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

y-o-y % changes y-o-y % changes

4

Page 5: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Unemployment has continued to decline

Source: OECD Economic Outlook.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Percentage Percentage

5

Unemployment rate

Page 6: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Domestic demand is now also driving the recovery

Annual percentage change

Source: OECD Economic Outlook.

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Exports Domestic demand

6

Page 7: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

The economic expansion will continue

Source: OECD

% change 2018 2019 2020 Gross domestic product (GDP) 2.1 2.1 1.9

Private consumption 2.2 1.8 2.0

Government consumption 0.7 -0.1 -0.1

Gross fixed capital formation 4.5 5.6 4.7

Exports of goods and services 6.0 4.5 3.7 Imports of goods and services 6.2 4.7 4.2

Unemployment rate 7.1 6.4 5.7

Consumer price index 1.3 1.3 1.4

7

Page 8: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Convergence has been limited

Source: OECD Compendium of Productivity Indicators

GDP per capita, percentage of OECD average

8

Page 9: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Wellbeing can be improved

Source: OECD (2017), OECD Better Life Index

11

1618

2024

2830 31 32 33 35

Environmentalquality

Personalsecurity

Housing Work-lifebalance

Income andwealth

Socialconnections

Health status Jobs andearnings

Education andskills

Civicengagement

Subjectivewell-being

OECD Better Life Index Country rankings from 1 (best) to 35 (worst), 2017

20% top performers 60% middle performers 20% bottom performers Portugal

9

Page 10: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Encouraging fiscal sustainability and green growth

10

Page 11: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

The public debt ratio is falling, but remains high

Source: OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database).

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

% of GDP % of GDP

11

Gross government debt as a percentage of GDP

Page 12: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Ageing costs will impact public debt

Source: OECD, European Commissions, calculations by the OECD Secretariat.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Continued consolidation effortContinued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase in age-related costsWeakening consolidation effortWeakening consolidation effort and not offsetting ageing-related costs

General government debt as a percentage of GDP

12

Page 13: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

There are too many VAT exemptions and reduced rates

Note: The VAT Revenue Ratio is the ratio between the actual value-added tax revenue collected and the revenue that would theoretically be raised if VAT was applied at the standard rate to all final consumption. Source: OECD.

VAT Revenue Ratio

13

Page 14: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Public transport is used much less than in other EU countries

50556065707580859095

50556065707580859095

LTU

PRT

NOR

ISL

GBR

SVN

NLD

DEU

SWE

LUX EU FIN

GRC

ITA

BEL

DNK

ESP

FRA

LVA

EST

IRL

POL

AUT

SVK

CHE

CZE

TUR

HUN

Source: Eurostat.

Percentage of individual car use in total passenger transport, 2016

14

Page 15: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

• Continue gradual fiscal consolidation.

• Raise taxes on diesel fuel, and increase energy taxes on coal and natural gas.

• Encourage public transport use and the development of new shared transport solutions.

Recommendations to improve fiscal sustainability and make growth greener

15

Page 16: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Improving financial stability

16

Page 17: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Bank profitability has improved, but remains low

Source: European Banking Authority (EBA), “EBA Risk Dashboard”

Return on Equity (%)

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

GRC

DEU

FIN

PRT

ITA ISL

GBR

BEL

FRA EU IRL

DNK

LUX

ESP

NLD

POL

EST

AUT

NOR

SVN

SVK

SWE

LTU

LVA

CZE

HUN

2018 Q3 2016 Q3

17

Page 18: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Nonperforming loans remain elevated, despite improvements

Source: European Banking Authority (EBA), “EBA Risk Dashboard”.

Non-performing loans as a ratio of total outstanding loans, 2018 Q3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

GRC

PRT

ITA

SVN

HUN IRL

POL

ESP EU LVA

AUT

SVK

FRA

LTU ISL

DNK

BEL

NLD

DEU

NOR

EST

CZE

GBR

FIN

SWE

LUX

43

18

Page 19: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Personal bankruptcy law is relatively stringent

Source: Adapted from Adalet McGowan et al. (2017).

OECD insolvency indicator: Treatment of failed entrepreneurs, 2016

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

CAN

TUR

USA

AUS

CHL

GBR

JPN

AUT

CHE

DNK

ESP

FIN

FRA

GRC IRL

ITA

LVA

MEX

NOR

NZL

SVK

SVN

BEL

DEU

EST

HUN

ISR

KOR

NLD

PRT

SWE

CZE

19

Page 20: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Court proceedings for credit claims can be long

Source: Ministry of Justice.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

less than 1 year 1 to 2 years 2 to 5 years more than 5 years

Total Credit claim

20

Page 21: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

• Continue to monitor NPL reduction plans, translating performance in achieving targets into capital requirements.

• Make bankruptcy a viable solution for heavily indebted individuals, reducing the time to discharge and exempting more of the debtor’s assets from bankruptcy proceedings.

• Introduce an out-of-court mechanism to facilitate the liquidation of non-viable firms.

Recommendations to improve financial stability

21

Page 22: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Further raising export performance

22

Page 23: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

The improvement in export performance has been impressive

Source: OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database).

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Portugal Germany Italy Spain Hungary

Export performance, Index 2007=100

23

Page 24: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Tourism has been booming

Source: Bank of Portugal, calculations by the OECD Secretariat.

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Services Goods

Percentage contribution to total export growth over the 2009-17 period

24

Page 25: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

The economy can still be more outward oriented

% of GDP

Source: OECD.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

PRT HUN CZE BEL

FDI stock Exports

25

Page 26: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Most firms are too small to be significant exporters

Source: Eurostat.

Share of firms with more than 10 employees

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

SVK

GRC

CZE

ESP

ITA

FRA

BEL

PRT

POL

SVN

SWE

NLD

HUN ISL

FIN

LVA

IRL

EST

LTU

NOR

GBR

AUT

DNK

DEU

LUX

%%

26

Page 27: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

It takes too long to prepare and pay taxes

Time to prepare and pay taxes, 2018

Source: World Bank Doing Business Indicators.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

EST

LUX

CHE

NOR IRL

FIN

LTU

AUS

GBR

NLD

SWE

JPN

AUT

CAN

DNK

BEL

FRA ISL

NZL

ESP

OECD LV

ATU

RUS

AKO

RSV

KGR

CDE

UCZ

ESV

N ITA

ISR

MEX

PRT

COL

HUN

CHL

HoursHours

27

Page 28: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Logistics infrastructure can be improved

Ranking for logistics infrastructure

Source: World Bank Doing Business Indicators.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

PRT HUN CZE ESP ITA BEL FRA DEUBetter

Worse

28

Page 29: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Improving workers skills is key for raising competitiveness

Percentage of individuals that have completed education

Source: Eurostat.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64Upper secondary and post-secondary education Tertiary education

EU Portugal

29

Page 30: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

• Simplify the tax system by reducing the use of special provisions and ambiguity in tax language.

• Ensure that port concession contracts specify a minimum level of investment by the operator and do not renew concessions without opening a new public tender.

• In awarding port concessions, take into account the price that bidders will charge port users.

• Target lifelong learning opportunities to the low-skilled, including by collecting information on the private returns to skills and making it publicly available.

Recommendations for further promoting export performance

30

Page 31: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Enhancing judicial efficiency to foster economic activity

31

Page 32: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Court proceedings are shorter than before, but still long

Source: Council of Europe European Commission for the efficiency of justice (CEPEJ)

Average time needed to resolve civil and commercial cases, first instance courts, in days

32

Page 33: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

The average time to pay is long in Portugal, partly reflecting weak contract enforcement

The average time actually taken to pay, Business to business, in days.

Source: Intrum (2018), “European Payment Reports 2018”. 33

Page 34: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Loan forbearance is common, while collateral enforcement is difficult

Source: EBA, “Risk Assessment Report” December 2018.

The forbearance loans ratio as a percentage of total outstanding loans in the corporate sector, Q2 2018

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

GRC PRT SVN IRL ITA ESP ISL NOR HUN POL EU DEU NLD AUT DNK BEL GBR SWE FRA FIN EST LUX

34

Page 35: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Recent reforms reduced pending proceedings, but court congestion remains significant

Source: Pordata.

Number of initiated, terminated and pending proceedings per judge

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Initiated Terminated Pending

35

Page 36: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Significant bottlenecks remain in some courts

Source: Ministry of Justice and High Council for the Judiciary.

Civil cases, 2017

How to read this chart: Court efficiency (measured by “Resolution rate” which is the number of resolved cases divided by the cases in stock) tends to be low where court resources are relatively scarce.

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6Resolution rate (LHS) cases in stock/number of judges (ratio, RHS)

36

Page 37: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Regulation in the legal professions is too strict

OECD Indicators of regulation in the legal services sector

Source: OECD Product Market Regulations Statistics (database).37

Page 38: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Alternative dispute resolution mechanisms can be developed further

Source: INE.

Number of proceedings in “Justice of peace courts” vs. in the court system.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

thousandsthousands

incoming cases, justice of peace courts (LHS)

pending cases, justice of peace courts (LHS)

incoming cases, court system (RHS)

38

Page 39: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

• Increase the managerial autonomy of the courts so that they can effectively allocate resources.

• Fully analyse the data collected from the information system on court proceedings (CITIUS) so that it allows the courts to identify problematic cases and those that should be prioritised.

• Set up an independent supervisory body to ensure that regulations in the legal profession are in the public interest.

• Continue to enhance the capacity of the Public Prosecution Officeto address economic and financial crime. Public prosecutors should continue to undertake specialised training in this area.

• Establish an electronic registry of interests for all government members and senior civil servants that is regularly updated.

Recommendations for enhancing the judiciary to foster economic activity

39

Page 40: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Improving labour utilisation and further reducing poverty

40

Page 41: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

The incidence of long-term unemployment is still quite high

Source: Eurostat Labour Force Survey database.

As a percentage of total labour force, 2018 Q3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

GRC

ESP

TUR ITA

FRA

LVA

PRT

FIN

SVK

LUX

SWE

IRL

BEL

LTU

EST

SVN

DNK

AUT

CHE

GBR

NOR

HUN

POL

NLD

DEU

CZE ISL

Unemployment rate of which, long-term unemployment

41

Page 42: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Low-skilled people face significant employment barriers

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Lack of skills Scarce jobopportunities

(regress)

Health limitations "High" non-labourincome

"Low" relativework experience

No past workexperience

"High" earningsreplacements

"High" careresponsabilities

Percentage of those unemployed or with weak labour market attachment facing each employment barrier

Source: OECD (2018), “Faces of joblessness in Portugal”. 42

Page 43: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

• Avoid across-the-board rises in hiring subsides, limiting them to those at high risk of long-term unemployment and those at risk of poverty.

• Expand well-designed vocational training programmes (i.e. “Aprendizagem” and “Cursos de Educação e Formação de Adultos”), so that they reach more of the low-skilled population.

• Consolidate the two vocational education systems into a single dual VET system with strong workplace training and perform a thorough evaluation of all vocational training.

Recommendations for improving labour utilisation and reducing poverty

43

Page 44: 2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL2010. 2015. 2020. 2025. 2030. 2035. 2040. 2045. 2050. Continued consolidation effort. Continued consolidation effort and not offsetting increase

Disclaimers: The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

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For more information

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http://www.oecd.org/economy/surveys/portugal-economic-snapshot

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