2016 Summer Preparedness - Government of New 2016 Summer Preparedness May, 2016. 2 2016 Summer Preparedness

  • View
    0

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Text of 2016 Summer Preparedness - Government of New 2016 Summer Preparedness May, 2016. 2 2016 Summer...

  • 2016 Summer Preparedness

    May, 2016

  • 2

    2016 Summer Preparedness

    New York State

    Electric System

    Preparedness

  • 3

    Historical Actual, Normal, & Forecast – Summer Peak(MW)

    Source: NYISO

  • 4

    2016 Summer Capability

    2015 2016

    Installed Generation Capacity 39,039 38,535

    Demand Response – Special Case Resources (SCRs) 1,124 1,248

    Total NY Control Area (NYCA) Internal Capability 40,163 39,783

    Net Firm Purchase Imports 1,446 1,769

    Total Capability 41,610 41,552

    Source: NYISO

  • 5

    NYS Peak Demand and Installed Reserve Margin

    Forecast

    Demand Forecast 33,360 MW

    17.5% Required Installed Reserve Margin (IRM) 5,838 MW

    Total Capability Requirement 39,198 MW

    Total Capability This Summer 41,552 MW

    Surplus (Capability Above Requirement) 2,354 MW

    Capability Versus Demand Forecast (%) 124.6%

    Source: NYISO

  • 6

    Con Edison: Load Relief Programs

    DLRP – Distribution Load Relief Program

    CSRP – Commercial System Relief Program

    DLC – Direct Load Control Program

    232 229

    209

    175

    200

    232 236

    0

    45

    86 70

    147 137

    194

    38 35 35 36 31 32 28

    -25

    25

    75

    125

    175

    225

    275

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    En ro

    llm e

    n t

    (M W

    )

    DLRP

    CSRP

    DLC

  • 7

    Utility Transmission and Distribution Systems Preparedness

    • Surveys - Discussed responses to preparedness survey with each utility

    • Work - All planned reinforcements, inspections, and repairs are or will be

    completed

    • Spares - Each utility has adequate spare equipment on hand

    • Planned Outages - Major generator and transmission planned outages require

    NYISO approval, and are avoided during peak periods

    • Meeting Demand - Each utility expects to meet peak demand with all lines and

    generators in service

    • Meeting Criteria - Each meets NPCC and NYSRC operating criteria

    • Mitigation – NYISO and each utility have operating procedures to mitigate

    reliability issues

  • 8

    2016 Summer Preparedness

    New York State

    Electric Portfolio, Volatility,

    and Supply Price Outlook

  • 9

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    C o

    e ff

    ic ie

    n t

    o f

    V a ri

    a ti

    o n

    NYISO Spot Market vs. Utility Full Service Residential

    Customer Supply Portfolio Volatility (Statewide 12-month rolling average)

    Portfolio Market

  • 10

    -10%

    -5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    Statewide - Mark to Market New Contract History

    (% of Total Supply Costs)

    New Contracts Cumulative New Contracts

  • 11

    68%

    21%

    3% 8%

    New York State Electric Supply Portfolio Full Service Residential

    (Summer 2016)

    Fixed Price Market Price

    Unhedged Generation Index Price

  • 12

    NY West LBMP ($/MWH)

    NY Hudson Valley LBMP ($/MWH)

    New York City LBMP ($/MWH)

    $29.84

    $28.63

    $30.53

    $27.09

    $28.34

    $29.63

    $32.93

    $36.45

    $38.61

    Average Energy Price Comparison Summer Season

    NYMEX Futures June-September, 2015 Spot Market June-September, 2015 NYMEX Futures June-September, 2016

  • 13

    $4.15

    $10.99

    $8.25

    $3.62

    $5.30

    $15.50

    $8.50

    $3.50

    Long Island

    NYC Capacity Zone

    New Capacity Zone

    Rest of State

    Summer Strip Auction Capacity Prices

    ($ per kW-month)

    2015 2016

  • 14

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7

    0.4 0.1 0.4

    1.0 1.0 0.6

    0.3 0.4

    1.0 1.0

    0.5 0.6 1.0

    0.7 0.9

    1.3

    1.6

    1.4 0.5 0.4

    0.2 0.2 0.1

    0.02

    0.1

    0.3

    0.3

    0.3

    C o

    s t

    ($ B

    il li o

    n s )

    Year

    NYCA Capacity Costs 2006-2015

    LI

    NYC

    NCZ

    ROS

    *Capacity computations performed by DPS Staff using published NYISO Capacity Auction results ** All Capacity is priced at market prices; note that bilateral contract prices may differ from current market prices *** Costs jumped from 2012 through 2014 due to ~2,000MW in retirements and increases in peak load forecasts **** 2015 prices declined as there was nearly 1GW more supply vs the 2014 Gold Book.

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

  • 15

    12.4 13.4 15.8

    7.7 9.6 9.2

    7.4 9.7

    11.1

    7.9

    2.1

    2.2 1.4

    1.4

    1.5 0.8

    1.4

    2.7

    3.3

    2.6

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    0 2 4 6 8

    10 12 14 16 18 20

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    G a s P

    ri c e (

    $ P

    e r

    T h o u s a

    n d C

    u b ic

    F e e t)

    C o

    s t ($

    B ill

    io n

    s )

    Year

    NYCA SUPPLY COSTS 2006-2015

    Energy and Ancillary Capacity Gas Price

    *Capacity computations performed by DPS Staff using published NYISO Capacity Auction results **Energy and Ancillary computation performed by DPS Staff using NYISO Monthly reports and 2016 NYISO Gold Book *** All Supply costs are priced at market; note that bilateral contract prices may differ from current market prices ****Gas Price is EIA Average Gas price For New York Power Consumer