2003 Moisture Outlook

Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr.Colorado Climate CenterPrepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss

http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu

Through 1999

Through 1999

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Month

Pre

cip

itat

ion

(in

ches

)

Fort Collins Total Water Year Precipitation (Oct-Sep)

Reservoir StorageReservoir Storage

Provisional Data Provided by NRCS

Statewide Reservoir Levels for Colorado

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Oct 1. 1998 Oct 1. 1999 Oct 1. 2000 Oct 1. 2001 Oct 1. 2002 Feb 1. 2003

Date

Pe

rce

nt

of

Av

era

ge

Colorado Statewide Annual Colorado Statewide Annual Temperatures through 2002Temperatures through 2002

From NOAA, National Climatic Data Center

Colorado Average Annual Temperature(1895 - 2002)

40

42

44

46

48

50

1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Year

Tem

per

atu

re (

deg

rees

F)

Wyoming Statewide Annual Wyoming Statewide Annual Temperatures through 2002Temperatures through 2002

Wyoming Average Annual Temperature(1895 - 2002)

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2003Years

Tem

per

atu

re (

Deg

rees

F)

From NOAA, National Climatic Data Center

Fort Collins Summer Average Temperature(June - August), 1889-2002

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

18891899

19091919

19291939

19491959

19691979

19891999

Years

Te

mp

era

ture

(D

eg

. F)

Summer Total 7 year running mean

Summer Temperatures Summer Temperatures Fort Collins, 1889-2002Fort Collins, 1889-2002

Where do we stand now?Where do we stand now?

Temperature - Water Year 2003Temperature - Water Year 2003

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

De

pa

rtu

re f

rom

av

era

ge

, de

gre

e F

Eastern Plains Foothills Mountains Western Valleys

Water Year 2003Water Year 2003 – Colorado

UPPER SAN JUAN SNOTELUPPER SAN JUAN SNOTEL

Water Year 2003Water Year 2003 – Colorado

JOE WRIGHT SNOTELJOE WRIGHT SNOTEL

Water Year 2003Water Year 2003 – Wyoming

Power River SNOTELPower River SNOTEL

Data from USDA/NRCS

What May Be Ahead in 2003What May Be Ahead in 2003

PrecipitationPrecipitationMonthly Average Precipitation for Selected Sites

in the South Platte Basin

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Month

Pre

cip

itat

ion

(in

ches

)

Hoosier Pass Denver Stapleton Sterling

Monthly Average Precipitation for1971-2000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

Pre

cip

ita

tio

n (

inc

he

s)

Lamar Cheyenne Wells Walsh Center Fruita

PrecipitationPrecipitation

A few storms contribute a large fraction of annual precipitation while many small events contribute a small fraction.

Greeley Daily Accumulated Precipitation

0

5

10

15

20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecDay

Pre

cip

ita

tio

n (

inc

he

s)

Accumulated Daily 1999 2000 2001 2002

What Happens NextWhat Happens Next

We have never experienced 2 consecutive extreme statewide drought years.

Past multi-year drought, characterized by one extreme year preceded and followed by other dry year.

Entire Region rarely all recovers quickly and at the same time.

Hope for the best, plan for the worst!!

Positive IndicatorsPositive Indicators

Late winter snows Cool spring Multi-day precipitation Wet Snow Low intensity rainfall Light winds High humidity Abundant cloud cover

Negative IndicatorsNegative Indicators

Little late winter snow Missed opportunities Warm spring Brief, sporadic precipitation High intensity rainfall Frequent, strong winds Low humidity Abundant sunshine

Current IndicatorsCurrent Indicators

El Niño still present Unfavorable Pacific decadal oscillation Missed opportunities February better – but not a good

indicator Wet often follows dry Most extreme dry periods last one year

(Exceptions: SE CO)

TemperatureTemperatureMarch-May 2003March-May 2003

From the Colorado Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

PrecipitationPrecipitationMarch-May 2003March-May 2003

From the Colorado Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

Temperature Temperature June-Aug 2003June-Aug 2003

From the Colorado Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

PrecipitationPrecipitationJune-Aug 2003June-Aug 2003

From the Colorado Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

Breaking This Drought Breaking This Drought Will Be ToughWill Be Tough

A wet spring is essential to begin that process.

COAGMETCOAGMETWeather Data for AgricultureWeather Data for Agriculture

Automated weather stations with daily and hourly readings of:

Temperature Humidity Wind Precipitation Solar energy Evapotranspiration

http://www.COAGMET.com

Colorado Climate MagazineColorado Climate Magazine

Good bedtime reading about the climate of Colorado -- recent and historic

$15/year subscription pays printing and mailing costs

CoCo RaHSRaHSYOU CAN HELP!

http://www.cocorahs.com

Colorado Climate CenterColorado Climate CenterColorado State UniversityColorado State University

Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloading

http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu click on “Drought”

then click on “Presentations”