130% Index Returns Automotive Aftermarket Equity 140% Aftermarket | March 31, 2017 1 Automotive

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  • Automotive Aftermarket | March 31, 2017 1 Jefferies.com

    Automotive Aftermarket JEFFERIES WEEKLY GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET REPORT March 31, 2017

    INVESTMENT BANKING

    LTM Trading Multiples (EV / LTM EBITDA)

    Twelve Month Price Performance

    Suppliers: AXTA, CTB, DORM, GT, HZN, MPAA, SMP, SNA, VVV; Parts Retailers & Distributors: AAP, AZO, GPC, LKQ, ORLY, PRTS, SNA, UNS; Retail Service Providers: BYD.UN; MNRO, VVV; Collision: BYD.UN, CPRT, FENX, KAR, LKQ

    MILES TRAVELED AND AVERAGE GASOLINE PRICE PER GALLON

    Source: Miles Traveled U.S. Department of Transportation Gas Prices U.S. Energy Information Administration

    0 / 176 / 80 Suppliers

    247 / 150 / 70 Parts Retailers

    0 / 112 / 192 General

    255 / 204 / 0 Retail Service

    Providers

    255 / 0 / 0 Dealers

    0 / 176 / 240 Collision

    128 / 100 / 162 AA Index

    1.4%

    5.0% 4.5%

    1.8% 1.6%

    3.0%

    1.3%

    2.7% 2.2%

    0.9%

    3.6%

    (0.2%)

    0.7%

    $1.50

    $1.70

    $1.90

    $2.10

    $2.30

    $2.50

    $2.70

    $2.90

    (2.0%)

    0.0%

    2.0%

    4.0%

    6.0%

    8.0%

    Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17

    Average G

    asoline Price P

    er Gallon

    Vehi

    cle

    Mile

    s Tr

    avel

    ed (

    Year

    -Ove

    r-Ye

    ar

    Cha

    nge)

    Automotive Aftermarket Equity

    Index Returns

    1 Week 1 Month

    S&P 500 0.8% (0.0%)

    JEF Automotive Aftermarket Index 3.0% (2.7%)

    Suppliers 5.2% 2.1%

    Parts Retailers & Distributors 1.6% (2.6%)

    Retail Service Providers 2.9% (0.1%)

    Collision 1.4% (3.4%)

    Source: Capital IQ

    119.9%

    106.7% 108.9% 111.6% 113.4% 115.0%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    110%

    120%

    130%

    140%

    150%

    Suppliers Parts Retailers & DistributorsRetail Service Providers CollisionJEF Automotive Aftermarket Index S&P 500

    Automotive Aftermarket

    Trading Multiples

    3/31/2017 1 Year Ago

    JEF Automotive Aftermarket Index 11.5x 12.2x

    Suppliers 9.7x 10.0x

    Parts Retailers & Distributors 11.9x 13.1x

    Retail Service Providers 13.0x 15.5x

    Collision 13.5x 13.3x

    Source: Capital IQ

    9.7x

    11.9x 13.0x

    13.5x

    11.5x

    8.0x

    9.0x

    10.0x

    11.0x

    12.0x

    13.0x

    14.0x

    15.0x

    16.0x

    Suppliers Parts Retailers & Distributors

    Retail Service Providers Collision

    JEF Automotive Aftermarket Index

  • Automotive Aftermarket | March 31, 2017 2 Jefferies.com

    INVESTMENT BANKING AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET

    AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET STOCK PERFORMANCE(1) (2) (3)

    As of 3/31/2017

    Source: Capital IQ, Jefferies LLC Notes: (1) Bubble size is reflective of relative market capitalization (2) Excludes Horizon Global (Last Weeks Return: 7.3%; Last Months Return: (24.1%)) (3) Excludes Fenix Parts (Last Weeks Return: (13.9%); Last Months Return: (22.5%))

    Advance Auto

    AutoZone

    Genuine Parts

    O'Reilly Snap-on

    Uni-SelectCopart

    LKQ

    KAR

    Cooper

    Dorman

    Goodyear

    Motorcar Parts

    Valvoline

    Boyd

    Monro

    (15%)

    (10%)

    (5%)

    0%

    5%

    10%

    (5%) 0% 5% 10% 15%

    Last

    Mon

    th's

    Ret

    urn

    Last Week's Return

    Parts Retailers & Distributors Collision SuppliersRetail Service Providers Parts Retailers & Distributors Collision

    Slipping Leading

    Lagging Improving

    S&P 500 Last Week's Return 0.8%

    S&P 500 Last

    Month's Return0.0%

    Standard Motor

    U.S. Auto Parts

  • Automotive Aftermarket | March 31, 2017 3 Jefferies.com

    INVESTMENT BANKING AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET

    CURRENT TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS SALES GROWTH

    DEALER STOCK PERFORMANCE(1)

    As of 3/31/2017

    Source: Capital IQ, Jefferies LLC Notes: (1) Bubble size is reflective of relative market capitalization

    Source: Capital IQ, Jefferies LLC

    (0.4%) (1.6%)

    7.1%

    (7.8%)

    12.8% 13.7%

    3.3%

    8.9%

    1.3%

    (1.7%)

    3.1% 0.4%

    19.3%

    7.9%

    3.3% 4.3%

    (11.7%)

    21.6%

    6.9%

    1.3%

    21.6%

    17.8%

    NA

    17.1%

    19.3%

    (20%)

    (10%)

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    Axa

    lta

    Coa

    ting

    Sys

    tem

    s Lt

    d.

    Coo

    per

    Tire

    & R

    ubbe

    r C

    ompa

    ny

    Dor

    man

    Pro

    duct

    s, I

    nc.

    The

    Goo

    dyea

    r Ti

    re &

    Rub

    ber

    Com

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    Hor

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    Glo

    bal C

    orpo

    ration

    Mot

    orca

    r Par

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    mer

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    Inc

    .

    Sna

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    Inc

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    d

    Sta

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    d M

    otor

    Pro

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    s, I

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    Valv

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    c.

    Adv

    ance

    Aut

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    ts, In

    c.

    Aut

    oZon

    e, I

    nc.

    Gen

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    Par

    ts C

    ompa

    ny

    LKQ

    Cor

    pora

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    O'R

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    Aut

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    ive,

    Inc

    .

    Sna

    p-on

    Inc

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    d

    U.S

    . A

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    Par

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    Inc

    .

    Uni

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    ect

    Inc.

    Boy

    d G

    roup

    Inc

    ome

    Fund

    Mon

    ro M

    uffler

    Bra

    ke,

    Inc.

    Valv

    olin

    e In

    c.

    Boy

    d G

    roup

    Inc

    ome

    Fund

    Cop

    art,

    Inc

    .

    Feni

    x P

    arts

    , In

    c.

    KA

    R A

    uction

    Ser

    vice

    s, I

    nc.

    LKQ

    Cor

    pora

    tion

    Suppliers Parts Retailers & Distributors RSP Collision

    Asbury

    AutoCanada

    AutoNationCarMax

    Group 1 Automotive

    Lithia Motors

    Penske Automotive Group

    Rush Enterprises

    Sonic Automotive

    (15%)

    (10%)

    (5%)

    0%

    (5%) 0% 5% 10%

    Last

    Mon

    th's

    Ret

    urn

    Last Week's Return

    Slipping Leading

    Lagging Improving

    S&P 500 Last Week's Return 0.8%

    S&P 500 Last Month's Return 0.0%

  • Automotive Aftermarket | March 31, 2017 4 Jefferies.com

    INVESTMENT BANKING AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET

    SAME STORE SALES GROWTH(1)(2)(3)

    WORLD VEHICLE MONTHLY SALES BY REGION (Millions)

    MANHEIM USED VEHICLE INDEX(1)

    Source: Capital IQ, Jefferies LLC Notes: (1) Same Store Sales Growth reflective of aftermarket applicable sales (2) See operating results section (further herein) for detailed breakout of Same Store Sales figures (3) Same Store Sales measures revenue growth for stores that have been open for at least one year

    Source: WardsAuto

    Source: Manheim Consulting Notes: (1) As of February 2017

    124.6

    90.0

    95.0

    100.0

    105.0

    110.0

    115.0

    120.0

    125.0

    130.0

    Jan-

    95

    Jul-

    95

    Jan-

    96

    Jul-

    96

    Jan-

    97

    Jul-

    97

    Jan-

    98

    Jul-

    98

    Jan-

    99

    Jul-

    99

    Jan-

    00

    Jul-

    00

    Jan-

    01

    Jul-

    01

    Jan-

    02

    Jul-

    02

    Jan-

    03

    Jul-

    03

    Jan-

    04

    Jul-

    04

    Jan-

    05

    Jul-

    05

    Jan-

    06

    Jul-

    06

    Jan-

    07

    Jul-

    07

    Jan-

    08

    Jul-

    08

    Jan-

    09

    Jul-

    09

    Jan-

    10

    Jul-

    10

    Jan-

    11

    Jul-

    11

    Jan-

    12

    Jul-

    12

    Jan-

    13

    Jul-

    13

    Jan-

    14

    Jul-

    14

    Jan-

    15

    Jul-

    15

    Jan-

    16

    Jul-

    16

    4.4

    %

    4.9

    %

    4.6

    %

    4.3

    %

    4.4

    %

    4.0

    %

    4.4

    %

    4.0

    %

    3.4

    %

    2.9

    %

    1.1

    %

    0.9

    %

    2.7

    %

    2.8

    %

    3.2

    %

    4.2

    %

    2.8

    %

    (1.8

    %)

    3.9

    %

    2.6

    %

    4.7

    %

    (2.5

    %)

    4.0

    %

    (6.9

    %)

    0.2

    %

    2.3

    % 7

    .0%

    9.0

    %

    6.7

    %

    8.3

    %

    7.1

    %

    6.3

    %

    6.1

    %

    7.1

    %

    8.0

    %

    6.4

    %

    5.4

    %

    8.8

    %

    10

    .7%

    (15%)

    (10%)

    (5%)

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16

    Parts Retailers & Distributors Retail Service Providers Collision

    1.92 1.86 1.89 1.87 1.86 1.85 1.77 1.69 1.72 2.04 1.40 1.60

    6.33

    5.14 5.20 5.58 4.86 4.716.12

    5.73 6.116.18

    5.69 4.94

    8.26

    7.00 7.097.45

    6.71 6.57

    7.907.42

    7.848.22

    7.096.54

    Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17

    North America Light Vehicles Foreign Light Vehicles

  • Automotive Aftermarket | March 31, 2017 5 Jefferies.com

    Source: Capital IQ, Jefferies LLC Notes: (1) Enterprise Value = Market Capitalization + Debt Cash; EBITDA = Earnings Before In