11 Scenario Steering Committed Raft

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R W A N D A N A T I O N A L L A N D U S E A N D D E V E L O P M E N T M A S T E R P L A N - S C E N A R I O S

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R W A N D A N A T I O N A L L A N D U S E A N D D E V E L O P M E N T - S C E N A R I O S

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Introduction......................................................................................................2Alternative Red (worse/critical).......................................................4Alternative Yellow (fair/acceptable).................................................4Alternative Green (good/prosperous) .............................................4How is the Assessment for 2010 and how will it be 2015?..............4

Scenarios Characteristics Regarding Governance and Peoples Trust............................................................................................................................6

Scenarios Characteristics Regarding Demography and PopulationChange..............................................................................................................7

Scenarios Characteristics Regarding Migration and Urbanization .....8

Scenarios Characterist ics Regarding Environmental Health .............11

Scenarios Characteristics Regarding Economic Trend.......................17

Scenario Cost Assessment ........................................................................20

The Scenarios in a Nutshell ........................................................................21

The GIS Model ...............................................................................................25

Methodology .............................................................................................25

Examples ...................................................................................................26

Next Step The Draft Final Plan ................................................................34

General Findings and Recommendations ...............................................37

Introduction

Planning of today is a continuous process. Once the plan has been approved theimplementation process starts. Indicators are defined to measure objectives fulfillment. The

predictions and projections made in the plan must be evaluated on regular basis and areview will be needed before the plan has lost its valid due to unforeseen development andother causes that were not able to foresee.

The Plan proposes a method in which the plan is being compared to the actualdevelopment. A number of key drivers have been defined and indicators have beenarranged:


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For each of the Key Drivers there has been an attempt to define indicators(Scenario Characteristics) for evaluation purposes. Importantcharacteristics of these indicators are that they should be:

easily understood by all stakeholders;

related to the interests of one or more groups of stakeholders;

measurable using immediately available data at the national and/or

district level level;

clearly related to visions and goal at national (and district) level(s);

linked where possible to the three themes of economic, social andenvironmental sustainability.

The indicators should be readily available, easily collected or estimated,and should not normally require special surveys or studies. Indicators are

not data, rather they are models simplifying a complex subject to a fewnumbers which can be easily grasped and understood by policy makersand the general public. Classic indicators include the unemployment rate orGDP growth, numbers which are powerful and recognizable indicators ofthe performance of the economy.

Below is an example on what Indicators (Scenario Characteristics) are assigned to

Migration and Urbanization:


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The next step is to introduce a scoring system with five steps, where 1

indicates a poor value and 5 is the best:

The next step is to define the three scenarios;

Alternative Red (worse/critical)In this scenario we present the land-use scenario if development continuesin an uncontrolled, ad.hoc/laissez-faire mode. It is a predictive scenario -extrapolation of currents trends and processes and business-as-usual;

Alternative Yellow (fair/acceptable)In this scenario we present the land-use scenario if development continuesin a relatively managed and controlled way. It is an exploratory scenario construction alternative, plausible futures;

Alternative Green (good/prosperous)In this scenario we present the land-use scenario if development continuesin a very controlled way. It is a normative scenario describing desiredfutures and the events that can lead to such futures.

How is the Assessment for 2010 and how will i t be 2015?After defining the indicators, an assessment can be made on how thesituation can be characterized today (2010):

Assessment for Year 2010

1 2 3 4 5

Governance and peoples trust

Demography and population change

Migration and urbanization

Environm. hazards

Economic trend

Key Drivers Sustainable Score

Likewise, when the Plan is due for revision, in 2015, the method can be used to measurethe actual situation at that time. The idea is the that during monitoring, the characteristics ofthe key drivers can be analyzed, trends can be informed about and measures can be takento prevent an unwanted development.:

And, as an example, arrows can be inserted to indicate which direction the trend has beenmoving from 1010 to 1015:


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:

The next chapters presents the key drivers and indicators (ScenarioCharacteristics) of the three scenarios and some examples on theirimplications in a land use perspective. There are mapped presentationsattached to show the land use aspects of the three scenarios. Not all thekey drivers will have a visual and clear impact on land use. However, puttogether, the key drivers will inform about plausible future development.And the future is not going to move into either of the both extreme

scenarios, most probably there will be a combination how key drivers willinfluence.

Many of the key drivers have an impact on land use. Consequently the Plan tries to identify

them and see how they affect the land use. After dissemination by stakeholders and thegeneral public during the Consultation Period in May, the draft Final Plan will presentrelevant (land use) directives, guidelines and planning standards for national sectorplanning, district development planning and urban development planning.


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Scenarios Charac terist ics Regarding Governance and Peoples Trust

Governance and People's Trust

Key Scenario Indicator

Sustainable Score

Drivers Characteristics

1 3 5 2010 1 2 3 4 5

Progress of

decentralisationpolicy

Lip-service

decentralization. Allservice are contolledand managed by thecentral government.0% of total revenuesgenerated andcontrolled by localgovernments.

>20% of all revenues are

generated and controlledby local governments.

>40% of all revenues

are generated andcontrolled by local govt.

Umudugudu policyimplementation CANBE MAPPED BYDISTRICT

Poor or non-existentimplementation ofUmudugudu

policy.10% of the totalpopulation live invillagaes

Slow implementation ofUmudugudu policy.25%of the total population live

in villagaes

Fair implementation ofUmudugudu policy.50%of the total population

live in villagaes

45% of total populationare reported to live in U.villages. (70% in Vision

2020)

Governanceand Peoplestrust

Institutionaltransparency andaccountability

Corruption increases:No auditung of publicspending, No publicinformation to govcontracts and tenders.No high officials beingdismissed due tocorruption causes.

Rwanda is ranked as100 out of 180countries in theinternational corruptionranking list

Widespread auditing butaccess to reports isdifficult. F-O-R requestprocess in place but notused ruitinely. Dismissalof corrupt officials is rare.Rwanda is ranked as 70outof 180 countries in

the internationalcorruption ranking list

Corrupt officials arerare and if founddismissed. Rwanda isranked as 50 out of180 countries in theinternational corruptionranking list

Rwanda is ranked as 69out of 180 countries inthe internationalcorruption ranking list


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Delivery of basic

services

Slow delivery of public

services. Infantmortality rate is 10% ,literacy rate is 65%

Acceptable delivery of

public services. Infantmortality rate is 3%,literacy rate is 65%.

Fair delivery of public

services. Infantmortality rate is >1%,literacy rate is 100%.

Infant mortality rate is

>6,7%, literacy rate is65%.

Participation indemocratic processCAN BE MAPPEDBY DISTRICT

People loose trust ingovernment. 50% ofregistered populationvote in the parliament.

People critical to trust ingovernment. 75% ofregistered populationvote in the parliament.

People have trust ingovernment. 100% ofregistered populationvote in the parliament.

95% of population vote inthe parliament.

Scenarios Charac terist ics Regarding Demography and Population Change

Demography and Population Change


Sustainable Score

Drivers Characteristics 1 3 5 2010 1 2 3 4 5

Demographyand PopulationChange

Population growthCAN BE MAPPED BYDISTRICT

Total population year2020 will be14,073,000

Total population year2020 will be

Total population year2020 will be 12,974,000

Total population is about1024500 (2009)


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Family planning

program(s) CAN BEMAPPED BYDISTRICT

Household size willexceed 6 persons.50 % of the districtcenters have a familyplannic clinic. 40 %of age groups 0-15are malnourished.50% of males andfemales report thatthey are usingcondoms.

Household size willexceed 5 persons. 75 %of the district centershave a family plannicclinic. 20 % of agegroups 0-15 aremalnourished. 75% ofmales and femalesreport that they areusing condoms.

Household size will bebelow 4,5 persons. 100 %of the district centershave a family plannicclinic. 20 % of age groups0-15 are malnourished.100% of males andfemales report that theyare using condoms.

Household size is 4,6. Nofamily planning clinic atDistrict offices. 24% ofmales and 34% offemales report that theyare using condoms.

Single mother families 20% 15% 10% In 1992, beforethe genocide, 13 percentof households wereheaded by a womanwhile in 2005 nearly 21percentof households wereheaded by a woman.

Spread of HIVCANBE MAPPED BY

DISTRICT

Uncontrolled spread,15% of thepopulation infected

3% of the populationinfected

Less than 2% of thepopulation infected

3% of the populationinfected, (Vision 2020predicted 11%)

Scenarios Characteristics Regarding Migration and Urbanization

Migration and Urbanization 2020Key Scenario Indicator

Sustainable Score



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Scenarios Characteristics Regarding Environmental Health

Environmental Health


Sustainable Score


EnvironmentalHealth

Land degrationanddeforestation.

Bio-diversityprotection. CANBE MAPPED BYDISTRICT

No natural forestsor wetlands existoutside protected

areas. Nationalparks have beenreduced by 20%. Allwater bodies areundrinkable andheavily polluted.Environmental lawshave no communitysupport. Bufferzones do notsurround all

protected areas, donot provide anyconservation value.>200,000 peopleliving within 3km ofProtected areas. Allprotected areas areinfested withinvasive species.

>70% of natural habitatoutside protected areas in2010 still exist. All

protected areassurrounded by bufferzones,


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Land

degradation.AgriculturalSuitability. CANBE MAPPED(DISTRICT CASESTUDYGASABO)

Farmers relyheavily on fertilisersto retain soil fertility.Less than 25% ofslopes >250 arecultivated withoutterraces.Widespreadcultivation of slopes>500. >70% of thenational landsurface suffers fromerosion.

Soil conservationtechniques are applied toall slopes >13 deg. >50%land with slopes >250 areterraced. No slopes >500are cultivated. 13 degincluding teracing and alleycropping. No land withslopes > 25 deg iscultivated with annualcrops. All slopes >50 Degare forested or left fallow.

Private cardependencyversus publictransportation.Non-motorizedtransportopportunity.

Car/1000 ratio islike Africa onaverage 20?(280,000Totalprivate cars inRwanda). Publictransport is limitedto District Centres.Public transport isused by less thanX% of the

population.

Car/1000 ratio is 5 (About65,000 private cars inRwanda). Public transportis used by >40% of thepopulation as main modeof transport. All DistrictCentres and sectorcentres are linked bypublic transport services.

Car/1000 ratio is 2,(24,000) private cars inRwanda) Public transport isthe main mode transport, allDistrict Centres areconnected by bus. BRTwith dedicated lanes in allmajor urban centres. Roadsin all District Centres haveallocated bicycle lanes.

About 4000 private cars inRwanda 20?? Wikopedia2010 says 2 cars/1000 willresult in about 20,000 cars

Adoptation toclimate change

>80% of all foodproduced is fromrainfed agriculture.>30% of populationlive in flood proneareas. >50%provided by Hydrogeneration.


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Hazardous

location of builtup areas CAN BEMAPPED BYDISTRICT(NATIONAL +DISTRICT CASESTUDYGASABO) Seebelow

>30% of populationliving on slopes>200. >30% living inflood prone areas.20 Deg, 50% of atrisk building stock isresistant to earthquakes.

Waste

management

No landfills meetinternationalstandards. Noseparation oforganic waste.40% ofwaste recycled, >70% ofall toxic waste isseparated but storagedoes not meetinternational standards,

>70% of all waste recycled,100% of all organic wasteused for energy &/oragriculture. All Districtcentres have a municipallandfill that meetsinternational standards. Alltoxic waste is treated andstored.

In the following pages there are mapped illustration of the current situation on some of the Environmental Health Indicators:


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Scenarios Characteristics Regarding Economic Trend

Economic Trends

Key Scenario IndicatorSustainable Score


Incentives/

entrepreneurship/thriftiness amonginvestors andentrepreneurs. .

The Small and Medium

Business will falls belowthe pace of the populationgrowth


Business will grow at thesame pace as populationgrowth


Business will raise abovethe pace of the populationgrowth

GDP compared to2008

7% 8,50% 9,60%

8,50%East AfricanCommunity

Common currency to allmember fails. Sametedious process at theborder crossings by 2015

as today. Flow of trade atthe border same as today.

Common currency to allmember states by 2020.Flow of trade at the border25% higher than today.

Common currency to allmember states by 2012.Quick and effiecient one-stop-shop at the border

crossings by 2015. Flow oftrade at the border 50%higher than today.

Commonwealthmembership

Commonweatlh Head ofState Meeting held inRwanda by 2015.



Economic

trend

Depenency on foreignaid

50% of the nationalbudget




Global economicsituation

Coffea price and export ?Tea price and export?Number of internationaltourists?


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Level of internationalinvestment to Rwanda

No funds available forbuilding of railway. No

funds available to buildnew airport.

Funds committed tobuilt railway.to be ready2020. Funds committedto built new airport to beready 2020.

Funds committed tobuilt railway.to be ready2014. Funds committedto built new airport to beready 2014.

No funds available

Rwanda Vision 2020

The official Rwanda Vision is also using indicators in combination with targets of which many are reflected in the Plans Key Drivers:

Rwanda Vision 2020 (from 2002?) Indicators

SituationIn 2000

Target in2010

Target in2020

Inter-national

level

1. Rwandan population 7,700,000 10,200,000 13,000,000

2. Literacy level 48 80 100 1003. Life expectancy (years) 49 50 55

4. Women fertility rate 6 5,5 4,5

5. Infant mortality rate (0/00) 107 80 50

6. Maternal mortality rate for 100000 live births 1070 600 200

7. Child Malnutrition (Insufficiency in %) 30 20 10

8. Population Growth rate (%) 2,9 2,3 2,2

9. Net primary school enrolment (%) 72 100 100 100

10. Gross primary school enrolment (%) 100 100

11. Secondary school transitional rate (%) 42 60 8012. Gross Secondary school enrolment (%) 7 40 60

13. Rate of qualification of teachers (%) 20 100 100 100

14. Professional and technical training centres 50 106

15. The rate of admission in tertiary education (0/00) 1 4 6


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16. Gender equality in tertiary education (F %) 30 40 50 50

17. Gender equality in decision-making positions (% of females) 10 30 4018. HIV/AIDS prevalence rate (%) 13 11 8 0

19. Malaria -related mortality (%) 51 30 25

20. Doctors per 100,000 inhabitants 1,5 5 10 10

21. Population in a good hygienic condition (%) 20 40 60

22. Nurses per 100,000 inhabitants 16 18 20 20

23. Laboratory technicians per 100,000 inhabitants 2 5 5

24. Poverty (%< 1 US $/day) 60,4 40 30

25. Average GDP growth rate (%) 6,2 8 8

26. Growth rate of the agricultural sector (%) 9 8 627. Growth rate of the industry sector (%) 7 9 12

28. Growth rate of the service sector (%) 7 9 11

29. Ginni Coefficient (income disparity) 0,454 0,4 0,35

30. Growth national savings (% of GDP) 1 4 6

31. Growth national investment (% of GDP) 18 23 30 30

32. GDP per capita in US $ 220 400 900

33. Urban population (%) 10 20 30

34. Agricultural population (%) 90 75 50

35. Modernized agricultural land (%) 3 20 5036. Use of fertilizers (Kg/ha/year) 0,5 8 15

37. Financial credits to the agricultural sector (%) 1 15 20

38. Access to clear water (%) 52 80 100 100

39. Agricultural production (kcal/day/person (% needs) 1612 2 000 2 200

40. Availability of proteins/person/day (% of needs) 35 55 65 70

41. Road network (km/km2) 0,54 0,56 0,6

42. Annual electricity consumption (kWh/inhabitants) 30 60 100

43. Access to electric energy (% of population.) 2 25 35

44. Land portion against soil erosion (%) 20 80 9045. Level of reforestation (ha)

46. Wood energy in t he national energy consumption (%) 94 50 50

47. Non-agricultural jobs 200 500 1,400,000


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Scenario Cost Assessment

Initially, the costs for a Green Scenario realization will be high. Major infrastructureinvestments such as the building of the railway from Dar via Isaka to Kigali will needmajor loan funding (estimations of 4,5 to 2,5 billion dollars has been reported in themedia). Likewise, other investments like the development of a new airport outsideKigali, upgrading of roads, introduction of green district centre, distribution ofelectricity through a nationwide grid, etc. will be significant.

However, greater investments in aGreen scenario will result in a more sustainablesociety in the long term as the benefits in cost and time reduction will implyfavorable gains in both environment and transport costs.

Taking the railway as an example the following positive effects will be reached:

A freight train will need about 12 hours to complete the 1,400 km journey from thecoast considerably quicker than the two-week truck journey on bad roads withmany roadblocks at present.

At the moment, transport accounts for 40 % of the cost of the imported goods. A

railway connection should cut that to a fifth. Average transport cost in developedcountries accounts for about 9% and about 17% for the least developed countries.

Neighboring landlocked countries(RDC and Burundi)which have evenlonger distances toports will alsobenefit from arailway connectionfrom the Kigali tothe Sea forimportant traderoutes for ores such

as tin and tungsten.

History shows that a railway spurs development along its path opening up businessand trade opportunities. It can also facilitate exploitation of untapped naturalresources which provide the critical level of tonnage to justify the railway.

The environmental effects will also be of importance replacing oil-consuming roadfreight with energy-optimized a more mode of long distances transport.

In aRed Scenario, none of the important infrastructure investments will be realizedwithin the next 10 years and will of not any investment capital. In economic terms itis a saving in short term but the long term effect will be negative. The cost fortransport of goods for landlocked Rwanda will increase as oil becomes scarce, the


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increased reliance on trucks for transportation will accelerate the cost road

maintenance, lead to increased levels of air pollution in al major urban areas.

The Scenarios in a Nutshell

In the following maps there is an attempt to visualize the consequences of the threeScenarios by some statements. Basically, it is an extract and simplification of theKey Drivers and Indicators.


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The GIS Model

MethodologySpatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a proven method for land-useplanning purposes. MCDA can be described as a process that transforms and

combines geographic data and value judgments (the decision makers preferences)to obtain information for decision making. In the planning work the focus has beento develop a nation wide GIS model, containing all land-uses accommodated inthree main land-use categories: urban, agriculture and environment.

MCDA are often integrated in Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSS). An SDSSis an application that uses analytical methods and models to define alternatives, it isable to analyse their impact, and interpret and select the best option forimplementation. Three main stages in the process of land-use planning: (1) an

evaluation of land suitability for each land-use type; (2) the optimization of thedifferent land-use areas; (3) the spatial allocation of land-uses.

The GIS model is largely based on the Land-Use Conflict Identification Strategy(LUCIS) model. The LUCIS model does not have a specific focus on a certain typeof land-use planning, and is therefore particularly suitable for regional andcountrywide planning. It consists of three general models, describing the suitabilityof urban, agriculture, and environment components . Finally, these three land-usesare combined to identify conflicts.. Many of the goals, objectives, and sub-

objectives that described the earlier mentioned land-use categories were adoptedfrom the original model. However, a significant number of them were dropped, andnew were created to suit the Rwandan situation.

Figure: The five main steps of the LUCIS modelThe Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used as weighting method. ESRIsArcGIS ModelBuilder was used to give the model shape in the GIS. TheModelBuilder in ESRIs ArcGIS 9.2 was used to create the models for all individual


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goals and objectives. The ModelBuilder can be seen as a graphic programmingenvironment within ArcGIS. All tools from the toolbox, which is a large set of geo-processing tools, can be used to create complex geographical analysis. Creatingcomplex models here has the advantage that analysis, which has to be done onregular basis, does not take much time once they are anchored in a model.

Due to the graphic programming environment, the user does not needprogramming skills in order to create the models. Other major advantages are thatthey are easy to modify and share with other users. Firstly, suitability maps werecreated of all elements in the model. The suitability maps were then transformedinto preference maps by weighting them. In the next step the preference mapswere collapsed in three classes: low, medium and high preference. Finally, thepreference maps of the three land-use categories were combined, in order tovisualize conflict areas.

The NLCs Orthophotos proved to be useful when acting as reference for thesuitability and preference maps. Despite all datasets were not available from sectorauthorities; the GIS model was executed to simplify the understanding.

ExamplesIn the following pages examples are presented on the result of the modeling atnational level.

Furthermore, there are some examples applied at District level which arerecommended to be found in the proposed concept for local level planning theIntegrated District Development Plan, see Chapter Housing and Urbanization:


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Next Step The Draft Final PlanDepending on the reactions by the stakeholders and general public during theConsultation Period, the Part II documentation will be revised and condensed into aFinal Plan. The Final Plan will present ONEland use development proposal for theplanning horizon of 2020. In order implement the proposed land use the Final Planwill also include the following:

Mandatory regulations for land use that national sector authorities and localgovernment must pay respect to to. For example, in the Plan there will be a mapshowing Areas and Nodes of National Interest for Agriculture Production. It meansthat agriculture land use has the highest priority in the areas shown on the map andother land uses have to respect that. It also implies that the national sector plansand District Development Plans must show that they have observed the regulationand the reasons behind. Furthermore, the respective authorities must not proposeanything in their plans that will be in conflict with the national interest..

Below is an example how an Area of National Interest can be shown in An(Integrated) District Development Plan:

Guidelines for Sustainable Land Use Development . Below are examples onhow these guiding principles could look like are found in the Baseline Studies. Thepurpose is to inspire and guide sector planning and land use planning at Districtand urban levels:


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(Land use) Planning Standards. The standards are recommendation on spatialimplications on distribution of public services and utilities, for example the

recommended distance between home and the nearest health center. The purposeof these standards, which have been agreed on by the custodian sector authority,are that they can be used to identify inequalities of public services and utilities incomparative analyses and to make relevant proposals to harmonize social,economic and environmental factors.

It can also be geometric standards for example the right of way for a new nationalroad, which should be taken into consideration in land use plans, see below:

There are more examples on proposed land use planning standards found in theBaseline studies.


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Documents

11 Scenario Steering Committed Raft