10/24/08 1

Southwest Aviation Weather Safety

(SAWS Workshop II)

Brian CollinsMeteorologist

Southwest AirlinesBrian.Collins@wnco.com

Phoenix, AZOct. 23-24, 2008

10/24/08 2

Topics of Discussion

• Current Industry Projects

• SWA Facts and Figures

• SWA Weather

• Local NWS Issues

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Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System (MDCRS)

• Seven Airline Participants (AA, Delta, FedEx, NWA, SWA, United, UPS)

• Real-time data access restricted to participating airlines (ESRL web site) and government agencies

– Aircraft obs are largely limited to winds & temp

– Aircraft obs frequently over-reported at airline hubs, and under-reported at less-busy locations

10/24/08 4

Desired Future State of MDCRS• Aircraft Weather Observations

– Reported where & when needed through some level of data optimization system

– Implement standardized reporting rate, fidelity, and format.

– Delivered over standardized comm. systems (NOAAport) and available to everyone that desires real-time access

• Implement an enhanced process for allowing additional program participants

10/24/08 5

MDCRS issues and Considerations• Began process of working towards future state

again in early 2008 – Process slow due to conflicting priorities at airlines and

gov’t

– Effort being re-energized for continued work in 2009

• Various Needs– Additional definition from NWS & FAA on more specific

data req’s

– An honest account from airlines on what they can deliver in terms of increased and standardized data reporting

– Additional assistance from JPDO for long term NextGen considerations

10/24/08 6

NWS Water Vapor Project

• NWS contracts– Awarded to ARINC for installation of 31 water vapor sensors on

SWA aircraft

• SWA teaming with ARINC and SpectraSensors on installation and certification issues for the sensor

– Awarded upgrade to UPS to retrofit 25 current water vapor sensors on UPS aircraft with newly upgraded sensor.

• Schedule– Expect an Electromagnetic Interface (EMI) test on a sensor installed

on SWA aircraft in late Nov 2008

– Expect SWA aircraft to begin transmitting automated water vapor reports early first quarter of 2009

– Expect UPS aircraft to begin transmitting automated water vapor reports later in first quarter of 2009

10/24/08 7

Deicing Workgroup

• Updated guidance for contract weather observers– Issue SPECI when number of observed precipitation

types drops from 3 down to 2– Reiterate need to respond to pilot requests for

updated observations

• Intensity of frozen and freezing precipitation based on Liquid Water Equivalency currently being tested (intensity currently visibility driven)

• Testing precip combinations (type, intensity) that don’t currently have holdover/allowance times

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Ice Pellet Allowance Times Winter 2008-2009 (Type IV Fluid)

OAT -5°C or Above OAT Less Than -5°C

Light Ice Pellets 50 minutes 30 minutes

Moderate Ice Pellets 25 minutes 10 minutes

Light Ice Pellets mixed with Light or Moderate Snow

25 minutes Takeoff Not Authorized

Light Ice Pellets mixed with Light or Moderate Freezing Drizzle or Light Freezing Rain(Not Authorized below -10°C OAT)

25 minutes 10 minutes

(Not Authorized

Below -10°C OAT)

Light Ice Pellets mixed with Light Rain (OAT 0°C or Above)

25 minutes Not Applicable

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Weather Evaluation Team (WET)

• Sub-team under Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) umbrella

• Two Current Tasks– Investigate extending the CCFP (8-24 hours)

• Growing demand for change to current format• Probabilistic approach?• Utilize SPC outlooks or other convective products• Eliminate 2-hour outlook (use radar based products)?

– Develop process for airport weather forecasts to be presented to all participants prior to Strategic Planning Telecons (SPT’s)

• Capability for those involved to view all information• Opportunity to comment and/or present differences

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SWA Facts and Figures

• 3400+ daily flights from 64 airports • 535 Boeing 737 aircraft (300’s, 500’s, 700’s)• Average flight length is 627 miles

– Shortest: 133 miles (RSW-MCO)– Longest: 2,295 miles (BWI-SAN)

• Southwest consumed 1.5 billion gallons of jet fuel in 2007.

• Southwest offers the most domestic flights of any airline

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SWA Cities

MSP (March 2009)

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Top 10 SWA Airports

CitiesDaily

DeparturesNumber of

GatesNonstop Cities

Served Established

LAS 240 21 54 1982

MDW 223 29 47 1985

PHX 200 24 42 1982

BWI 162 26 38 1993

HOU 144 17 29 1971

DAL 140 15 15 1971

OAK 134 13 21 1989

LAX 126 11 18 1982

SAN 108 10 18 1982

MCO 106 14 33 1996

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SWA Weather• Big picture is a major responsibility

– Contribute more to strategic decisions than tactical decisions (large scale movement of aircraft)

– Rely solely on NWS TAFs for individual flight planning decisions.

• Twice daily briefings to all ops-related groups (Dispatch, Pilots, Maintenance, Ground Operations, Reservations, Crew Scheduling, Executive Office, Customer Service)

• Intranet Weather System always available to all SWA employees (includes daily briefing info)

• Integrate both government and private sector weather information sources into our dispatch applications

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Strategic vs Tactical• Strategic Planning (Hurricanes, Winter Storms)

– Employee Issues/Staffing Decisions– Passengers– Aircraft & Airport Operations (Terminators/Originators)– Local Infrastructure– Evaluation & Recovery– Restore Operations

• Tactical Planning (or Shorter Lead Time Strategic) (Thunderstorms, Fog, Ice Pellets, Minor Snowfalls)– Fuel Concerns– Alternate Requirements (necessary for less than 3 miles or 2 kft)– Suspend Ramp Operations (Code Red)– Flight Delays– Diversions– Cancellations

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Ongoing Challenges• Minimizing forecast variation for single station

– TAF’s and more (Gridded Fcst, Zone Fcst, AFD, CCFP, SPC, etc.)

• TAF still makes dispatchers world go round

• However, now more frequently utilizing other products (This is a good thing)

• Can be significant variation in forecast products (at terminal or within the local airspace)

• Local Effects (terrain, lake/ocean boundaries)

• Winter Weather – Ice (Never clear cut; fine line between nuisance and major

problem)

– Precipitation Type (Snow, Freezing Rain, Mixed)

– Terminator/Originator Decisions

• Ceiling and Visibility variability (very localized)

10/24/08 16

Local Issues• Convection and resulting ATC implications (isolated

storms mean something different to each station)• Ceiling and Visibility forecasts (SAN, SNA, BUR, LAX,

AUS, SAT, LAS, PHX)– Marine Layer in SoCal

– Blowing Dust

• Strong Winds (AMA, LBB, MAF, ELP, LAS, PHX)

• Micro scale events tend to sneak up (ABQ, RNO in winter)

• Winter Weather Occurrences– Infrequent, but major if/when happens (LAS, TUS, DAL)

– Less unusual, but fine line between minor and major event (OKC, AMA, LBB, MAF, ABQ)

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Why We Love the NWS• Compare your TAFs to making a pizza

– Can go with cheese only….kind of basic, stripped down, can do the trick….but not a lot to it and you may still be hungry...OR

– Can do supreme…..sausage, pepperoni, green pepper, mushroom, onions, black olives, (pineapple???)….it has everything on it, lots of variety…but may leave you feeling a bit uncomfortable……OR

– Can try a sausage and cheese, pepperoni and cheese, even 3 cheese….and that may happen to hit the spot!

• TAF Tidbits– Utilization of VCTS, VCSH, and CB in TAF can be very helpful

– Amend in timely manner when necessary, even if near end of TAF cycle (Important with regard to planning for fuel load!)

• Aviation portion of AFD can be huge asset– Adds clarification, conveys forecast confidence, and presents potential

“If Then” secondary scenarios

– Provides access to local NWS office expertise on precip timing and type, wind variations, ceiling/vis issues

– Breaking out specific airports (LAS, BUR, LAX) is VERY helpful

10/24/08 18

Aviation Discussion(Airport Specific)

• KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU AT LEAST 04Z...AFTER WHICH  MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE AIRFIELD. CURRENT PACKAGE  REFLECTS AN ARRIVAL AROUND 10Z...BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. CIGS SHOULD COME IN UNDER 010...BUT ONLY MODERATE CONF THERE TOO.

• AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN  TWO COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS  THROUGH LAS VEGAS IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE FIRST FRONT AS OF  WRITING WAS ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND IN ITS WAKE NORTHWEST  WINDS OF 6-12 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 20Z FRI...THEN WINDS  WILL TRANSITION BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS WITH  GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS AHEAD OF A SECOND AND MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT.  THIS SECOND FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH  SCT-BKN CLOUDS EXPECTED AOA 10K FEET. THIS SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST  TO PASS THROUGH BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z SATURDAY OF WHICH AFTERWARDS  WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 30-35  

KTS.  

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Summary & Thanks• Going the Extra Mile

– Allowing us to be included in conference calls initiated for media or emergency management on significant weather events….very helpful.

– Accepting our calls for brief discussions as conditions warrant…..even when busy….thanks for doing this.

• Additional Helpful Actions

– Familiarity with your airports operating criteria and local minimums

– Working closely with your CWSU to ensure forecast consistency and awareness of traffic flow status

– Web site graphics and details for ongoing events……many offices now do that…..again tremendously helpful.

• Other local office questions, concerns, suggestions…please find me and ask individually