1

Weather Information -- Collaborative Forecasting

• Extended Range Forecasting (CCFP)

• Joint Aviation Weather Units (JAWS)

Friends and Partners (FPAWs)NBAA, LasVegas, NV

13 October 2004

Dave RodenhuisSenior Meteorologist, ATCSCCSystem Operations Services, ATO

2

…a forecast of areas of convection and thunderstorms that meet a minimum threshold of intensity and stated forecaster confidence; includes coverage, tops, tendency, movement, with lead times of 2/4/6hours in

advance.

The CCFP Forecast is……• collaboration• the forecast• the application.

Extended Range Forecasting

The CCFP Forecast1.

3

1. Extended Range Forecasting

Example (14 SEP 2004)

VALID TIME

17 GMT

19 GMT

21 GMT

23 GMT

ISSUETIME 15 GMT 17GMT 19 GMT

4

1. Extended Range Forecasting

Accomplishments

• 1999 - Prototype– 2 forecasts/day

• 2000 - Initiate operational forecast unit at AWC– 4 forecasts/day; 16 hours/day; 7 months/year– first User Needs Analysis

• 2001 - Improve training– Technical Briefing (training) module– 6 forecasts/day; 24 hours/day 7 months per year

• 2002 - Increase forecast frequency– suspend Outlook for Convective SIGMETs– 12 forecasts/day; 24 hours/day, 8 months/year

• 2003 - Expand to Canadian Airspace– established Weather Applications Work Group (WAWG)– first Statement of User Needs– defined the forecast target– reduction to 11 forecasts/day

• 2004 - Improve Verification– ABC: accuracy, bias (precision) and consistency

5

• A Program of Attraction• Rapid Prototyping• Collaborative Forecasting• Forecast and Applications• Monitoring and User Feedback• Continual Evolution

1. Extended Range Forecasting

Concepts

6

1. Extended Range Forecasting

CCFP Forecast Skill

Accuracy Bias Consistency

PoD(yes) (Precision) ---

2002 0.24 0.85 ---

2003 0.31 1.08 0.67

2004* 0.31 1.02 0.66

Seasonal scores for all lead times. (J.Mahoney, NOAA, FSL) *(1Mar-3Aug 2004)

7

1. Extended Range Forecasting

Contemporary Reports - CCFP

• Statement of User Needs, CCFP 2004. WAWG Report, V7.3, Rev., 15 April 2004, K.Mullen, Ed., 32 pp.

• Continual Evolution of CCFP - User Needs for Extended Range Prediction. T.Fahey and D.Rodenhuis, ARAM, Oct 2004.

• Program Management for the CCFP. D.Sims and D.Rodenhuis, ARAM, Oct. 2004.

• Operational Feedback Reports to Providers of Aviation’s CCFP. D.Torbert and D.Rodenhuis, ARAM, Oct. 2004.

• International Collaboration Providing Seamless, Cross-Border Aviation Weather Products to Facilitate Traffic Management. L.Mercier, et.al., ARAM, Oct. 2004.

• More Intuitive Graphics for the CCFP. D.Sims, et.al., ARAM, Oct 2004.

• Defining Observational Fields for Verification of the CCFP. J.Mahoney, et.al., ARAM, Oct 2004.

8

1. Extended Range Forecasting

Expectations (2005+)

Applications– More intuitive graphics (format)– CONOPS for weather and TFM (integration)– Evaluation (value)– (strengthen) Verification (quality)

• The Forecast– Automation of the short-range forecast– NWP for the extended range forecast.– Probabilistic forecast format

• Collaboration– Web conferencing

9

1. Extended Range Forecasting

More Intuitive Graphics

Current CCFPColor =

Coverage

TUT Proposal

Color = Coverage

Fill = Confidence

WxAps Proposal

Color = Confidence

Fill = Coverage

10

1. Extended Range Forecasting

More Intuitive Graphics (9/29)

11

Joint Aviation Weather Units

The CWSUs

• Initiated in 1979 (25 years old)• 20 units at ARTCCs in the CONUS (84 FTEs)• Operated by the NWS; funded by the FAA• Current mission is advisory and nowcasting to support the

ARTCC and operational sites • FAA evaluation (1993-5) • NWS modernization (1996)• NRC Recommendations (1995) • NTSB Recommendations (1995, 2001)

• FAA Functional Audit (site review; 2003)• Guidelines for Restructuring-CWSUs (ATT, 2003)• Assessment of Current Operations (ATT,2003)• A Concept of Operations for Enhancing Weather Support

to the NAS (NWS, 2003)

2.

12

2. Joint Aviation Weather Units

Current Configuration

13

2. Joint Aviation Weather Units

New Mission

…to be cognizant of hazardous weather information covering all phases of flight, participate in strategic planning, and support the transition to tactical operations. The mission is defined by the needs of the national system of traffic management that meet objectives of safety, efficiency, and security.

14

2. Joint Aviation Weather Units

New Configuration

15

2. Joint Aviation Weather Units

Contemporary Plans and Reports

• A Vision for Improved Weather Forecast Services - Restructuring Plans for the CWSUs. D.Rodenhuis, ARAM, Oct. 2004.

• A Concept of Operations for an Integrated Weather Forecast Process to Support the NAS. K.Johnston and J.Ladd, ARAM, Oct.2004.

• Mission and CONOPS for the JAWS. DRAFT, System Operations, ATO, DRAFT, October 2004.

16

2. Joint Aviation Weather Units

New Responsibilities

• TRACON Forecasts and TDA• TDA = Tactical Decision Aids

impacts on capacity• Interactive Weather Briefing (IWB)• Route Forecasts and TDA• Continue to contribute to CCFP.• A unified NWS aviation forecast --

(WFOs, AWC, JAWS)

17

2. Joint Aviation Weather Units

Responsibilities

18

2. Joint Aviation Weather Units

New Interactive Weather Briefing

19

2. Joint Aviation Weather Units

New Value

Vt

V1

Vo0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Time ==>

Va

lue

current

plannedtransition

20

2. Joint Aviation Weather Units

Expectations (FY05)

• Prove the Concept of IWB1. Prototype Test: Hourly Hub Forecasts and TDA.2. Prototype Test: TRACON Forecast and

Capacity/Weather Briefing (NWS)3. Prototype Test: Delivery System

• Statement of User Requirements • Convene Joint Transition Team• Convene User Design Team• Write the Implementation Plan (NWS)

21

2. Joint Aviation Weather Units

Expectations (JAWS)

1. New mission and responsibilities

2. New service hours and siting

3. National standards

4. Interactive Weather Briefings

5. New products

6. Supporting hardware/software/comms

7. New intramural collaboration

8. New extramural dissemination

9. New training (CRITICAL ISSUE #3)

10. New program management (CRIT ISSUE #2)

11. Improved resource management (CRIT ISSUE #1)

22

Progress in Collaborative Forecasting

• Extended Range Forecasting (CCFP)• Joint Aviation Weather Units (JAWS)

Forecast collaboration (Producers)

Skillful forecasts (A..B..C..)

Users Applications to TFM (CAPACITY: safety and efficiency)